GY!BE Mafia [E.N.D.]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

1v1 between two opposing baddie factions is a little different because "control of the lynch" is no longer the condition of importance. In that situation I could see a coin flip.

[Epignosis]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

[Marmot]

Y'all can act like this is some hokey attempt at manipulation or you can do basic math.

If we do lynch a civilian today and the SK is still alive, we'd still need to have the SK and mafia target each other. Also, survival is required for a civilian to win. I'm not sacrificing myself at this point.

There are secrets in play, and the coinflip scenario to consider. As we've seen throughout this game, I don't think we can expect the simplest outcome to be the most likely one.

I think voting for my strongest suspect is my best option. I see you as a likely SK candidate and a probable mafia candidate. I can't imagine DrWilgy being the SK based on activity, but I still do consider him a mafia candidate.

Linki: Well I hope this answers your question Epignosis.

[Marmot]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

It is in the rules though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

It is in the rules though.

It's an assumption to say that rule applies to an endgame ratio. That's not typical even on this website.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I mean come on, it makes no sense to decide the game on a coin flip just because one civilian is still alive. That's nonsense. Rico might be unpredictable, but he still knows how this game works. When a mafioso or a SK has gotten to a 1 vs. 1 and those single votes are all that's left, the game is over. That's Mafia.

The game will be over before Christmas.

[Epignosis]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Talk me through that strategy, if you please.

I've already done this. Anticipatory play to serve as a recruiting signal and to attach himself to the wrong person when his role is publicized.

I don't see how that strategy works though. Say Trice doesn't get lynched and his role isn't revealed...how does that get him recruited?

[Epignosis]

The game will be over before Christmas.

Not for Rico.

[Marmot]

and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

After you changed your read on Epignosis to civilian, your next post suggested the strategy of lynching a civilian, not lynching DrWilgy. I don't think that mindset comes from a civilian.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't see how that strategy works though. Say Trice doesn't get lynched and his role isn't revealed...how does that get him recruited?

Best case: the SK sees a guy fingering someone conclusively as the SK without significant basis in the evidence, and thinks it's a signal worth checking. Recruitment occurs.

Worst case: the SK doesn't check him and he plays on to try again (trice).

The alternative strategy you're associating with him is an "I want to lose, fuck you JJJ" strategy. That would be trolling.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

After you changed your read on Epignosis to civilian, your next post suggested the strategy of lynching a civilian, not lynching DrWilgy. I don't think that mindset comes from a civilian.

I put up the kingmaker scenarios to display the circumstances because it's an important discussion to field. It also netted an immediate response from you and I think there's value in that.

I didn't suggest lynching a civilian. I said there's a scenario where that might be necessary. I left my vote on the guy I think is Mladic because I don't think the SK is in this game right now. If the rest of you disagree with that, it's something that should be playing into your reads and your voting decisions. That's the point of talking about it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot, we just played a game where that kingmaker scenario occurred and I lost as a baddie because a civilian was lynched at LyLo. It's fresh on my mind and we're in a very similar position. Of course I brought it up today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be frank:

I can understand being suspected as the SK. A guy who knew who the SK was fingered me as the SK. That's something I've had to contend with much to my frustration, but I can understand why other civilians might view that as a problem for me.

I don't understand being suspected as a mafioso. Dom's treatment of me is nothing like teammate behavior, and no matter how much you want to scare yourself with WIFOM b/s, it makes no sense for me to kill sig. None.

[Marmot]

I am considering voting DrWilgy. Based on his subtitution timing and activity since then, he's a less than ideal player to have in LYLO (no offense Wilgy).

I just wished we could have lynched him earlier.

[Epignosis]

I have a few things I have to process (including pizza).

[Epignosis]

One thing going on in my mind is that even if I believe 3J is the serial killer, the mafia don't (or they believe they cannot Night kill him or don't want to take a chance on that kill failing). The Mafia have been getting obliterated by Night kills, not lynches. When I'm bad, my goal is to eliminate all other kills from play so that I am the one in control of the Night. That is something to chew on.

[Epignosis]

If 3J is in fact the serial killer, then I might have to believe his master plan was to not kill me so he could say "Look, I didn't kill Epignosis!" and hope that's good enough to get him through the next Day. However, Dom was a vocal opponent of 3J's too.

Howyevah, there was no serial killer activity Night 8 as far as I can tell. Sleep is dead (and couldn't block anyway) and so is Static, so I am inclined to believe there was no block in play. If there was a block in play, I would expect the blocker to string the serial killer up by his toenails. There is no toenail stringing going on right now, sadly. If there was a protector's hand in this, we would see the protector giving somebody the thumbs up, and I ain't seeing any thumbs.

The only conceivable alternative is that 3J deliberately withheld his kill so that, going into Day 9, the rest of us would have to entertain the idea that the serial killer was killed. Two evenings ago, 3J was pretty mad at me for voting him and not "thinking(!!!!!!!)," so perhaps he was angry that I didn't fall for his ruse.

But if there was no ruse, then there is no serial killer anymore.

Hi Trice.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I'm a baddie, you're dead today Epi. There's no need to employ these ruses. When you're dead you can't vote for me.

If people suspect that I killed you, it's just one more thing on the suspicion pile. It's speculative and inconclusive. That's not something I'd care about; I'd leave myself in a LyLo with people who I think can be lynched instead of me without a Herculean effort by me. You're not that guy. In this scenario I am forced to either get you lynched or get you to change your mind about me -- perhaps the two most difficult tasks there are right now. That's not a winning play and I don't put myself in that position deliberately.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Please tell me how you arrived at all three of those reads.

Can I tomorrow?

I'd like follow-up on this, Wilgy.

[Epignosis]

If I'm a baddie, you're dead today Epi. There's no need to employ these ruses. When you're dead you can't vote for me.

If people suspect that I killed you, it's just one more thing on the suspicion pile. It's speculative and inconclusive. That's not something I'd care about; I'd leave myself in a LyLo with people who I think can be lynched instead of me without a Herculean effort by me. You're not that guy. In this scenario I am forced to either get you lynched or get you to change your mind about me -- perhaps the two most difficult tasks there are right now. That's not a winning play and I don't put myself in that position deliberately.

But if I think the role is gone, then you're cleared. No Herculean effort required. No effort at all. I recall how frustrated you were with me that I wouldn't come around to the notion that the serial killer was dead. Even reading your posts now makes sense in that regard.

No you don't.

I do. You're not even trying.

Trying to do what?

Solve the game. Do something. Do anything. You're just giving me this bullshit retort without acknowledging anything I have to say.

Moreover, I don't believe that you really believe your "good reasons not to lynch people" are the damned Gospel. People disagree. That's weak fucking sauce. You don't like when your reads are ignored? You've ignored every single post I've made since Day 5. You're not thinking about my alignment at all. You already decided.

That's not how a civilian operates, not even you. You're showing no interest in exploration of other angles. You're showing no concern about the other two.

"Not how a civilian operates, not even you" were your words. Yes, that's how I operate (especially after spending all day moving furniture and crap).

I've been thinking about sig though.

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

If the SK was sig, then sig would still have been able to submit a kill. There was no kill from the SK Night 8. You could say sig missed his Night action, but I don't see that being the case if you have to raise the idea that sig had "sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills." sig is very much active here the past few days, more than he was before because of his school being in session.

If the serial killer is dead, it has to be Lorab or Quin. But Lorab and Quin had those twin rainbow posts, and I don't believe I have ever seen Lorab do a rainbow before. I don't think anybody believes either of them are serial killers.

The serial killer is still alive.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

But if I think the role is gone, then you're cleared. No Herculean effort required. No effort at all. I recall how frustrated you were with me that I wouldn't come around to the notion that the serial killer was dead. Even reading your posts now makes sense in that regard.

You've made it clear that you think I'm bad regardless of which kind of bad. Eliminating the SK from the conversation doesn't spare me your vote. As we've discussed here, the events of Night 8 don't even affirm that the SK is dead. All we can do is speculate. Again -- do you really believe that my baddie strategy is to keep you alive and change your mind? After the conversations we've had in this game? Entering Night 8 phase, nobody was more likely to plant a vote on me than you in Day 9. Other people had expressed suspicion of me too, but none of them were as severe or certain as you were.

Leaving you here is suicide if I'm bad. I play to win.

If the SK was sig, then sig would still have been able to submit a kill. There was no kill from the SK Night 8. You could say sig missed his Night action, but I don't see that being the case if you have to raise the idea that sig had "sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills." sig is very much active here the past few days, more than he was before because of his school being in session.

If the serial killer is dead, it has to be Lorab or Quin. But Lorab and Quin had those twin rainbow posts, and I don't believe I have ever seen Lorab do a rainbow before. I don't think anybody believes either of them are serial killers.

The serial killer is still alive.

I arrived at sig as the lead prospect by process of elimination. Quin and LoRab have cleared you. BWT/Wilgy would have likely missed at least one kill. Marmot has given the best effort in this phase to solve the game and looks civilian at face value. If the SK is alive I think it's him, because that's the least conclusive point of defense.

I don't know what kind of nonsense might have been in play on Night 8 to leave us without a kill. Maybe sig himself opted to abstain. I have no idea. I think sig was a good candidate to be the killer and under the current circumstances that's where I'd lean.

[Epignosis]

Again -- do you really believe that my baddie strategy is to keep you alive and change your mind?

I keep you around all the time.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Again -- do you really believe that my baddie strategy is to keep you alive and change your mind?

I keep you around all the time.

I'm talking about the specific circumstance of this game. I might have some persuasive skill, but if I am bad I don't take it upon myself to try to change this guy's mind if I don't have to:

Spoiler: show

If, at the end of this game, 3J turns out to be a civilian, I will donate $50 to the charity of his choice.

I'll have to do it in February, but I'll do it.

I didn't find the reasons you supplied for calling somebody good compelling.

Because you're bad.

Your voting record is shit.

Your voting record is shit.

You're not receptive to shit.

That's actually not true. I'm just more subtle about it.

I'm offering more than you are Mr. Fuck Christmas.

I hope you get lynched before Christmas.

I'm trying to determine how much thought you're actually putting into this. "Lynch JJJ because trice said so" is the easiest shit there is and you've been very comfortable with that.

No. Lynch you because you don't listen to me when I say somebody is good.

Lynch you because you don't listen to me when I say somebody is good. Again.

Lynch you because you are behaving in a way that is not receptive to what civilians are saying.

Lynch you because you voting record is awful.

Lynch you because you keep acting like you have something to offer but you don't.

And yes, lynch you because Trice called you out.

Thank you G-Man for keeping this fiend around.

I don't believe you're a civilian Jay. I don't.

Can you name two players who you believe are definitely not baddie teammates? Name as many combinations as come to mind.

I don't like giving you ideas about whom to kill.

Posts like these are why we're both here right now. Someone(s) was counting on your vote landing on me and here we are. If there's only one baddie my money's on Wilgy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A comparison to an example you might remember, Epi:

In Transistor, I was bad and llama opposed me vocally and consistently from the early stages of the game throughout his lifespan. I left him alive for a while but was eventually forced to kill him because it was a vote I would not be able to move. In a limited field of votes, that's too big a problem to allow. So I killed his ass and then dealt with the consequences.

If I was bad here I'd have done the same thing to you.

[Epignosis]

While I don't believe you, Jay, here is where my head is:

A poster I done seen spells out in no uncertain terms that this is it.

Regardless of what I think about you, there is a faint but existent possibility that the serial killer is dead. There is no possibility that the last Mafia member is dead.

So even if you get lynched and turn out to be the serial killer, so what? Mafia gone mafia.

If Wilgy is bad, then he wins without doing much of anything today. I don't care for that. There are four people left, and he's leaving us to do the heavy lifting. I thought birdwithteeth was good though, and Dom even tried to get him lynched (if we assume Dom was Sleep). But that might be bird knowing he wouldn't be around much and him giving his teammate the green light to toss him in front of the Greyhound.

If MM is bad, then I think he played a solid game, and even took some unnecessary risks to get there (he defended me against you, for example).

If you are the last mafia, then we file that under "Oh, well."

[Marmot]

Hopefully I'll be back before the deadline, but our family is celebrating Christmas tonight, so we're starting dinner and things now.

I likely won't change my vote though.

[DrWilgy]

I am considering voting DrWilgy. Based on his subtitution timing and activity since then, he's a less than ideal player to have in LYLO (no offense Wilgy).

I just wished we could have lynched him earlier.

I disagree but respect this notion.

[Epignosis]

I will be cooking soon.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Returning from a game of Monopoly with the siblings.

I am considering voting DrWilgy. Based on his subtitution timing and activity since then, he's a less than ideal player to have in LYLO (no offense Wilgy).

I just wished we could have lynched him earlier.

I disagree but respect this notion.

What do you intend to do with your vote? What is your opinion of anything? We're nearly in the final hour of the final four.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My face if a mafia team of Vompatti and Wilgy wins this game:

Spoiler: show

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think it's very obvious at this point that Wilgy is Mladic. He has glided through this high pressure phase, made a couple empty posts, and held his vote throughout. No effort to solve. He is waiting, not playing. The only time a civilian ever does that in an endgame situation is when they aren't able to get to a computer or a phone. Wilgy has been here and he's left the pressure to everyone else.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there's a SK, lynching the SK is game over for the civilians.

Lynching a mafioso might not be game over for the civilians.

Even lynching a civilian stands the chance of resulting in a civilian win. The only lynch that can't result in a civilian win this phase is a SK lynch.

If 1v1 actually does amount to a coin flip, then the civilians have the opportunity to choose who their coin flip opponent is. Either way the coin flips the same.

Wilgy probably can't be the SK because of BWT's period of absence. He's a great Mladic candidate.

[Epignosis]

I thought the SK was dead.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jesus H. Christ.

[Epignosis]

Jesus H. Christ.

I thought that was funny.

[Epignosis]

Because you're the serial killer, you know.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there's a SK, lynching the SK is a game-losing move.

If there's a SK, lynching the mafioso is a game-losing move.

If there's a SK, lynching a civilian can still allow for a civilian win.

If I'm wrong about 1v1 and it ends as a coin flip, then it's a kingmaker anyway and the civilians can flip a coin against whichever baddie they don't lynch.

If there's not a SK, lynching the mafioso wins the game for the civilians.

If there's a SK and the SK is lynched, then the civilians are left praying for Rico to allow a 1v1 coin flip.

Lynching a mafioso can either leave the civilians in the exact same position or it can win them the game outright right now depending upon the alignment of the ratios.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Am I speaking French?

[Epignosis]

I've already said what I think Jay. MM said he wasn't likely to move his vote and if Wilgy does it's going to be on you.

[Epignosis]

If Wilgy votes, that is to say.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot's vote probably belongs to you anyway.

[Epignosis]

Marmot's vote probably belongs to you anyway.

I don't know what that means.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot's vote probably belongs to you anyway.

I don't know what that means.

I think he'd follow your vote because he trusts you considerably more than either Wilgy or I if he is able to check in.

[Epignosis]

Marmot's vote probably belongs to you anyway.

I don't know what that means.

I think he'd follow your vote because he trusts you considerably more than either Wilgy or I if he is able to check in.

Then he's not reading my most recent posts.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think that might be the case. He appears to have been short on time.

[Epignosis]

Is MM even a civilian? There's been no conclusive evidence of that.

[Epignosis]

(I just heard a hundred people groan from the spectator's gallery)