The Syndicate

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:19 pm**

Pennywise is a viable teammate of insertnamehere.

insertnamehere is a viable teammate of novaselinenever.

novaselinenever is a viable teammate of Pennywise.

Someone tell me why one of them shouldn't be lynched.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:20 pm**

wolbre04 wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:19 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:17 pm The two people for whom I found the fewest connections are now the lead wagons.

*throws hands up*
People don't care about winning I guess

Your vote's on me too. Whose side are you on?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:21 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:19 pm Pennywise is a viable teammate of insertnamehere.

insertnamehere is a viable teammate of novaselinenever.

novaselinenever is a viable teammate of Pennywise.

Someone tell me why one of them shouldn't be lynched.

They can be lynched later today. They won't respond to pressure now.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:21 pm**

I found this to be the most compelling connection.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:24 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:14 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:06 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:05 pm [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

My gut tells me you're trying harder to defend yourself from being lynched than to find mafia.
Do you think the things he just did in reference to you served as self-defense?
This post is what I'm refering to, his ISO of me. DDL's behavior today does not look sincere, as he started with a vote for me, before ISOing me as well as other players' mentions of me.

It's not a great case I know. But I do know I'm civilian, and well, I just can't justify DDL's efforts to get me lynched today.

I've been trying to get you lynched for three days. The ISO isn't to convince myself of that. I'm already convinced. My gut says you are bad. An ISO actually presents the danger of adding confirmation bias to it, so I wouldn't do it for that reason.

The ISO is to see if I can find teammate relationships for you. Because Jay challenged me to do that, and if I can't, then that means I should reconsider it. Furthermore, after trying to lynch you before and not succeeding, it's clear I need to make a bigger effort to convince others. I can pigback on others and talk about my gut or I can make a real case and actually get people to follow me. In GoC, I spent all game making gut posts and getting mostly ignored, and this game hasn't been much different. I like voting with my gut but that doesn't form actual wagons. So now I am making a real attempt at showing my weight and proving someone is bad.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:24 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:21 pm They can be lynched later today.

Not if nobody is here later today. If the civilians don't vote together they can't win.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:24 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:14 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:08 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:05 pm [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

My gut tells me you're trying harder to defend yourself from being lynched than to find mafia.
Not sure if I agree, but at this point me being lynched would end the game, so why should I not be worried about that?
Lynching any civilian would end the game. Right?

I am the only civilian I am sure of.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:26 pm**

That said, I do have to run in a few minutes. And I do think Jay is right about lynching players with actual, potential connections, so I'm moving my vote to [VOTE: Pennywise] aubergine.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:27 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:19 pm Pennywise is a viable teammate of insertnamehere.

insertnamehere is a viable teammate of novaselinenever.

novaselinenever is a viable teammate of Pennywise.

Someone tell me why one of them shouldn't be lynched.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:29 pm**

Sorry misclicked the submit button.

I don't trust any of those three. I can vote for Pennywise I guess.

Are you sure you don't think Marmot can be connected to others, Jay?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:31 pm**

Marmot can be connected with anyone. Anyone can be connected with anyone. We are reading this game poorly. Marmot is the scummiest player in the game by far. If we lose today and he is still alive how dumb would that be? Can you say that about anyone else?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:32 pm**

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:29 pm Sorry misclicked the submit button.

I don't trust any of those three. I can vote for Pennywise I guess.

Are you sure you don't think Marmot can be connected to others, Jay?

Not sure, no. You're right that his way of playing lends itself to difficulty reading interactions. I also think he's the most likely to be unlynchable if he is mafia though, unless it's just Pennywise -- but I have him chalked up for silencer.

One thing I disagree about is the complete absence of a Marmot/nova interaction. I think evil teammates tend to say at least something between them. They're both crickets about each other. There's no distancing or defending or anything, just a haunting breeze.

Have you seen the connections I drew among the three above? Do you disagree with anything I said?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:34 pm**

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:31 pm Marmot can be connected with anyone. Anyone can be connected with anyone. We are reading this game poorly. Marmot is the scummiest player in the game by far. If we lose today and he is still alive how dumb would that be? Can you say that about anyone else?

Losing to a living Pennywise would be considerably worse. I don't even think Marmot is the most suspicious at face value.

I think trying to take this one player at a time is the wrong move. I recognize that my moves to thing point have all been wrong, but I have to say what I believe.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:34 pm**

And what if Nova is the civ? Nova, the silenced guy who is voting his heart out?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:34 pm**

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:31 pm Marmot can be connected with anyone. Anyone can be connected with anyone. We are reading this game poorly. Marmot is the scummiest player in the game by far. If we lose today and he is still alive how dumb would that be? Can you say that about anyone else?

It's easy to not look scummy when you aren't posting.

So yes, I can name three other players who should be lynched before myself if we're talking solely "Who would I rather lose to?".

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:36 pm**

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:34 pm And what if Nova is the civ? Nova, the silenced guy who is voting his heart out?

Given that I think the silencer is being randomized, I can't do much with that. I appreciate that nova is trying which is why I haven't gone for him first. Everyone is "trying" at this point though short of the sewer clown.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:38 pm**

Yeah guys sorry but this "who would I lose to" logic is counter productive.

Let's focus on winning first and honor second please.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:38 pm**

So we voting for Pennywise then?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:39 pm**

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:38 pm So we voting for Pennywise then?

I don't want to be hard-headed. If you think there's a good reason not to do that, I am all ears -- or if you can state in the most compelling terms you've got that it should be Marmot.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:41 pm**

I think wolbre has been a blinding beacon of civilian light throughout Day 6.

DDL has done well and I view him in a better light.

Marmot impresses me less given that his answer has been to attack his own voter and the prevailing counterwagon (DDL). I worry about him being the unlynchable guy. INH is also possible in that role.

If Pennywise is mafia, I think he's the silencer.

If nova is mafia, I don't think he's unlynchable given his fierce responses to pressure.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:54 pm**

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 3:26 pmKyle: early Kyle did jack shit, late Kyle has been seriously trying. This is meta consistent with all the civ Kyle games I've played with, and overall he's saying a lot of stuff that I agree with.

this is the first time anyone has ever adequately summed up my mafia behavior

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:57 pm**

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] I'm 2 pages behind still is it worth reading or should I skip to the present and start digging into the modern shit

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:57 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:32 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:29 pm Sorry misclicked the submit button.

I don't trust any of those three. I can vote for Pennywise I guess.

Are you sure you don't think Marmot can be connected to others, Jay?
Not sure, no. You're right that his way of playing lends itself to difficulty reading interactions. I also think he's the most likely to be unlynchable if he is mafia though, unless it's just Pennywise -- but I have him chalked up for silencer.

One thing I disagree about is the complete absence of a Marmot/nova interaction. I think evil teammates tend to say at least something between them. They're both crickets about each other. There's no distancing or defending or anything, just a haunting breeze.

Have you seen the connections I drew among the three above? Do you disagree with anything I said?

Yes I have. I mostly skimmed tbh since I had 7 pages to catch up, but I agrreed with what I saw.

As for the nova/Marmot thing. I dunno, I have a counter example. There was a game I played where DF was bad with someone and he avoided mentioning that person at all until they got lynched, when he was like "good job lynching them, town". We promptly lynched DF for it.

This kind of thing doesn't follow a formula.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:59 pm**

nvm I'm gonna read it. I'm liking DDL's contributions I'm seeing, it seems like he's somewhat enthusiastically jumping into the big orgy of productiveness and synergy we've got going and I think it's a good look

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 6:59 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:57 pm @JaggedJimmyJay I'm 2 pages behind still is it worth reading or should I skip to the present and start digging into the modern shit

At least skim it. Stick around though for live dialogue.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:01 pm**

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:57 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:32 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 6:29 pm Sorry misclicked the submit button.

I don't trust any of those three. I can vote for Pennywise I guess.

Are you sure you don't think Marmot can be connected to others, Jay?
Not sure, no. You're right that his way of playing lends itself to difficulty reading interactions. I also think he's the most likely to be unlynchable if he is mafia though, unless it's just Pennywise -- but I have him chalked up for silencer.

One thing I disagree about is the complete absence of a Marmot/nova interaction. I think evil teammates tend to say at least something between them. They're both crickets about each other. There's no distancing or defending or anything, just a haunting breeze.

Have you seen the connections I drew among the three above? Do you disagree with anything I said?
Yes I have. I mostly skimmed tbh since I had 7 pages to catch up, but I agrreed with what I saw.

As for the nova/Marmot thing. I dunno, I have a counter example. There was a game I played where DF was bad with someone and he avoided mentioning that person at all until they got lynched, when he was like "good job lynching them, town". We promptly lynched DF for it.

This kind of thing doesn't follow a formula.

DFaraday usually ends a game with like 8 posts. It makes sense that he doesn't mention people.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:10 pm**

was there ever a point where the silences didn't seem random?

who have the silence targets been

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:12 pm**

ok caught up

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:13 pm**

Jay if we lynch the unlynchable mafia does it end the game or do we get to try again tomorrow since wincon only happens when the mafia numerically over takes town?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:19 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:13 pm Jay if we lynch the unlynchable mafia does it end the game or do we get to try again tomorrow since wincon only happens when the mafia numerically over takes town?

Quin requires the mafia to completely outnumber the civilians, so it wouldn't end the game. Either a civilian dies netting a tie with the indy vote in tow, or the indy is "killed", revealed, and a 5-4 advantage is sustained.

It would likely leave the civilian fate at the whims of an independent though with an unknown win condition.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:20 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:10 pm was there ever a point where the silences didn't seem random?

who have the silence targets been

Scotty
Marmot
MacDougall
novaselinenever

Those are the ones I remember.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:26 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:20 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:10 pm was there ever a point where the silences didn't seem random?

who have the silence targets been
Scotty
Marmot
MacDougall
novaselinenever

Those are the ones I remember.

do you think Scotty might have been a nonrandom choice? he's frequently very loud

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:29 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:19 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:13 pm Jay if we lynch the unlynchable mafia does it end the game or do we get to try again tomorrow since wincon only happens when the mafia numerically over takes town?
Quin requires the mafia to completely outnumber the civilians, so it wouldn't end the game. Either a civilian dies netting a tie with the indy vote in tow, or the indy is "killed", revealed, and a 5-4 advantage is sustained.

so what exactly happens if we hit the indie by mistake? is that not a game over?

it would likely leave the civilian fate at the whims of an independent though with an unknown win condition.

so then it's not the end of the world if we find the unlynchable mafia today.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:32 pm**

I would not vote:
Dragon D. Luffy
JaggedJimmyJay
Kylemii
MacDougall
wolbre04

I trust the above players the most based on their activity throughout the game as well as today.

Who's left?:
insertnamehere
Long Con
Marmot
novaselinenever
Pennywise

I'd feel a bunch more comfortable if I could reduce the second list by one.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:35 pm**

oh.... it looks like im alone again

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:35 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:26 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:20 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:10 pm was there ever a point where the silences didn't seem random?

who have the silence targets been
Scotty
Marmot
MacDougall
novaselinenever

Those are the ones I remember.
do you think Scotty might have been a nonrandom choice? he's frequently very loud

Potentially. He was silenced early when everyone was still here. Even Pennywise was active at one point.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:36 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:29 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:19 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:13 pm Jay if we lynch the unlynchable mafia does it end the game or do we get to try again tomorrow since wincon only happens when the mafia numerically over takes town?
Quin requires the mafia to completely outnumber the civilians, so it wouldn't end the game. Either a civilian dies netting a tie with the indy vote in tow, or the indy is "killed", revealed, and a 5-4 advantage is sustained.
so what exactly happens if we hit the indie by mistake? is that not a game over?

it would likely leave the civilian fate at the whims of an independent though with an unknown win condition.
so then it's not the end of the world if we find the unlynchable mafia today.

I can't answer with certainty given the number of variables in motion. It may not be the end of the world. It wouldn't be ideal.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:38 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:32 pm I'd feel a bunch more comfortable if I could reduce the second list by one.

Which of those five would you feel the least comfortable lynching?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:38 pm**

do you feel confident that we can do this, jay? today i mean?

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:40 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:38 pm do you feel confident that we can do this, jay? today i mean?

Lynch a mafioso today? Sure. Even without the considerable effort we've given here we'd have just under a 50/50 shot at random. I think we've done everything we can do. I certainly feel better about the present lynch than I did about Dom.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:46 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:38 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:32 pm I'd feel a bunch more comfortable if I could reduce the second list by one.
Which of those five would you feel the least comfortable lynching?

idk maybe long con? everyone on that list is there because there's very little that I know about them. long cons vaguely civlike behavior in this game is at odds with his usual civ behavior which regularly causes me to incorrectly scumread him, but maybe he's just changing things up, and still remains the possibility of him being the sniper that killed epignosis, despite the contradictions. it's possible long con was the sniper and didn't understand how his own role works, i.e. thought it was a nightly thing rather than a 1-shot.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:52 pm**

Long Con himself strongly balked at being called the sniper. I don't think it's him.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:57 pm**

p-dubs uses the ">_>" face in like 35% of his posts

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 7:59 pm**

One point barely in Penny's favor:

If the killing role is absent, the probability that none of the kills so far would have landed on the independent or a mafioso is .237 / 23.7% (.75 ^5).

Still, that's not a staggering number and it's only one of three lynchable mafia roles.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 8:03 pm**

pennywise was almost lynched day 5 right?

that would be a good source of analysis

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 8:03 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 8:03 pm pennywise was almost lynched day 5 right?

that would be a good source of analysis

I think he had a few votes before the masses consolidated on Dom. I agree that it's an interesting moment.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 8:06 pm**

the quiet is making me nervous

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 8:06 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 8:06 pm the quiet is making me nervous

At least this time we don't have some easy wagon taking off.

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 8:08 pm**

[VOTE: p-dubs] aubergine

Posted: **Mon May 14, 2018 8:09 pm**

Ok Im busy so I cant be till the end

Gonna vote penny to help with the consensus block.

[VOTE: pennywise] aubergine

The Syndicate

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