The Syndicate

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:18 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:11 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:01 pm

poutanko wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:52 pm What made you think maf won't do anything to Timmer other than trying to kill him? They might still block or redirect him.

I don't know why you are sitting here criticizing my choice. Really feels like you're attacking my logic rather than my alignment.

There was a town kill night one even though Timmer was roleblocked. The whole vig game and mafia targeting game doesn't revolve around Timmer and those that visit Timmer. Long Con was an immediate interest and priority.

I harbor the same suspicion poutanko has voiced. Watching Long Con seems to bear more potential for mafia gains than civilian gains.

I'll tell you what I told her then. Shut up and lynch me. If the purpose of this observation is to validate a scumread on me, I don't want to hear it. I have a cop check over my head, and you don't need further justification.

So stop trying to shame me over my town play, which effing worked exactly as I wanted it to.

A quote from Insanity mafia, translated from morse code

i am getting really freaking tired of people, every game, saying i'm either scum or (stupid/inattentive/not trying). i can mark three times this has happened this year. since i'm town every time it happens, it comes off as an insult. i've never been told i was playing stupidly or ignorantly as scum. but here we are again, in the same position, with me being insulted for my crappy town play. maybe i should just replace out each time i roll town. have a 'screw it' meta.

I'm really, REALLY getting tired of this crap. It happens nearly every game. "You wouldn't do this as town because the smarter choice would be to do X, Y, or Z." Screw off. I will scumhunt how I want to scumhunt.

I have no interest in insulting you. I didn't even say that you did something stupid. There are civilian motives for watching Long Con. There are also mafia motives, and those stand out to me. Obviously if the red check alone were sufficient I wouldn't be having this conversation.

Chill beans.

I mean I guess it's unlikely since someone probably did actually target LC with a vig, but I just feel like there are too many things that can mess up night actions in this setup to be sure of anything.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:23 pm Are you assuming it's impossible that both quin and the other person were redirected?

Even if they were, Long Con ended up dead. That's the end result. So one of them killed him.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:23 pm I have no interest in insulting you. I didn't even say that you did something stupid. There are civilian motives for watching Long Con. There are also mafia motives, and those stand out to me. Obviously if the red check alone were sufficient I wouldn't be having this conversation.

Chill beans.

Sorry. Got riled.

I recognize that there are mafia motives for watching Long Con as well. If I didn't know the mafia motives, I wouldn't have kept ???'s identity from the thread. I knew that when I started, but still felt it would be worthwhile and was the most sure place I could find concrete information.

Also, with what looks like a nightly civ vig, it doesn't really matter whether any few townies in particular think the red check is sufficient. I am not long for this world.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:39 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:47 am @ whoever rezzed INH

I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed. And you're fucking nuts.

Might not have been on purpose.

[Crucio]: This spell will torture a student, roleblocking them for a night and forcing them to reveal what spells they know.

[Imperio]: This spell will take control of a student’s actions. Any abilities they use will be redirected to a target of the user’s choice. The student being controlled cannot be forced to self-target. This ability can only be used once in the game on each player.

It’s one thing to rez a scumbuddy and waste the town’s time. Meaner to force a townie to burn their one shot rez one a wolf.

Well, if somebody used a rez that wasn’t on INH, speak now plz

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:08 am it got swept under the rug like an unwanted stepchild

Poor Arry Potta.

So, who wants to summarize the night action confusion being discussed at length? If one isn't there to follow the conversation live, it's difficult to follow at all.

Give me the details step by step like I am four, and I will decide whether I care.

Long Con dies, Epi dies.

Speed asks how Long Con died without Timmer targeting him.
Timmer confirms he did not target Long Con.
Quin complains, says he Patronummed Long Con.
After Speed badgers Quin, quin reveals his other target was fricking Sloonei for some reason
Speed call Quin a liar, says Quin targeted Long Con as well as some other person
Quin and Speed ask Timmer if he used a redirector Dirisomething. He did not.

Pout says she copped Bullchuck N1 and got scum
Pout says she copped colin N2 and got town
After much badgering, Pout says she is now unable to use her cop and got no results night 3.

Why do I have to badger so much?

Conclusion:
Quin did not target who he said he did. Either Quin is a lying town vig for some reason or he got redirected.
???, the other one who targeted Long Con, was the likely killer.
Colin is probably town because no way would Pout's checks both get redirected.

Did I miss anything?

Or, y'know, Quin is a scum liar because lying. Making him a scum something visiting Long Con. I don't know why that would happen.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:57 pm Quin complains, says he Patronummed Long Con.

Do you mean he patronummed timmer?

So basically I think either
Both sloonei and speed are mafia
Or
Speed is town and both Sloonei and Quin are mafia

Either way sloonei is bad

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:03 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:57 pm Quin complains, says he Patronummed Long Con.

Do you mean he patronummed timmer?

Yep, that is what I meant.

He claimed to target Timmer and later claimed Sloonei as well.

But he visited Long Con.

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention], if an Expecto Patronum is redirected, does this only impact one of the intended targets or both (i.e., does one target remain where it was intended, or do both targets dissolve into a single redirection point)?

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:04 pm So basically I think either
Both sloonei and speed are mafia
Or
Speed is town and both Sloonei and Quin are mafia

Either way sloonei is bad

I genuinely don’t understand how you reached this conclusion.

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:04 pm So basically I think either
Both sloonei and speed are mafia
Or
Speed is town and both Sloonei and Quin are mafia

Either way sloonei is bad

BTW this is just what I think is most likely, not saying this covers all possible worlds but I'd be surprised if anything else is the case

how's everyone doing today?

Lazy "rainbow" reflecting how players looked in their Long Con interactions.

Colin ++
nutella ++

Lunalee +
MacDougall +
poutanko +

Quin 0
karavalenge 0
sprityo 0

Jackofhearts2005 -

speedzeye --
Slowner --

I didn't feel like bothering for DharmaHelper or timmer. If you think they're bad, tell me about it. If not, build your POE.

If my six players not featuring a plus sign contains the mafia, then I think we're fine.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:14 pm how's everyone doing today?

I'm so damned tired. I'm in a lab until well into the AM hours all the time now, and it all feels so hollow and pointless.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:15 pm

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:14 pm how's everyone doing today?

I'm so damned tired. I'm in a lab until well into the AM hours all the time now, and it all feels so hollow and pointless.

I'm also pretty damn tired. Re-watched the new Suspiria with friends last night, and it ended at like 2 AM. I need my 8 hours of beauty sleep, dammit. Other than that, I'm doing okay.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:09 pm Dragon D. Luffy, if an Expecto Patronum is redirected, does this only impact one of the intended targets or both (i.e., does one target remain where it was intended, or do both targets dissolve into a single redirection point)?

If the redirection is related to target (i. e. diricawl), it changes that target while keeping the other one/two targets the same.

If the redirection is related to the user (i. e. imperio) it changes all targets at once.

[VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine because i feel like that vote is more vital to solving the game right now. Re-eliminating INH remains a priority, but we already know his deal. There's questions that need to be answered in the Speedchuck/Quin realm. I'll go with the guy who has a guilty cop ID on him.

Quin is either:

a. A town vig trying to cover his tracks. If so, he chose a bad way to do it. Like why Patronus? Why claim at all?
b. Redirected
c. Mafia creating a fake story to cover ???. If so, he chose a bad way to do it. Like why Patronus? Why claim at all?

I'm not sure what to think. On that note, here's why Quin might be the evil:

[Expecto Patronum]: This spell will make the user and another two students immune to Dark Arts, except [Avada Kedavra], for a night.
When used by a guilty student, it will create a distraction around themselves and another student, protecting them from all negative abilities.

Quin only claimed one target at first. If he was scum, he only HAD one target. And he had ample reason to go after Long Con, to protect him from negative abilities. That would all make sense.

But on the other hand... Long Con died anyway. Meaning ??? would have to have a super kill. DDL specifically mentioned that, but... like duh. Super kills go past protections.
If that's relevant, then... two options. One: Scum was redirected and bypassed their own patronum to kill LC with a superkill. Too hilarious to be true.
Two: ??? has the Elder wand and they killed LC with it.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:20 pm [VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine because i feel like that vote is more vital to solving the game right now. Re-eliminating INH remains a priority, but we already know his deal. There's questions that need to be answered in the Speedchuck/Quin realm. I'll go with the guy who has a guilty cop ID on him.

This is actually pretty good logic you guys

But then INH would give scum a guaranteed extra night action.

Let's work out the numbers so we can be more comfortable in our POE efforts.

The game began with 24 players. Given typical ratios, that is likely to amount to 5 or 6 mafia members. Considering the presence if civilian vigilante(s) as we've seen it, the safer assumption is probably 6.

If you accept that premise, we began at 18 vs. 6. Independents could influence this number, though I don't think there's been any evidence to indicate that one exists. It's not in the role list, and that could be interpreted as a bastardization or a host lie (as DDL has assured us is not the case). This isn't a slam dunk, but it's where I lean. So, 18 vs. 6.

We have 16 players alive. 2 mafia members are dead, and one more is confirmed among us. That leaves us with a theoretical present ratio of 12 vs. 4. In a standard one-lynch/one-kill progression, that would leave us with three mislynches until a MyLo phase at 6 vs. 4. Obviously, that standard progression has not existed to this point and is highly unlikely to exist, so we will have to continually monitor the numbers as they adapt.

If INH is successfully lynched today, we'd enter the night at 12 vs. 3. Worst-case scenario given what we've seen so far, three civilians are killed in the night phase (one by the mafia team, one by a vigilante, and one more by whatever other means). That'd result in 9 vs. 3 the following day. That's the worst scenario (and it still isn't terrible). If a mafioso again dies during the night phase, the dynamic is much brighter for the civilians. We have a clear lead right now, but complacency will murder us if we allow it to.

I think a good POE number to aspire to right now is then 6. If you can contain an entire mafia team of four members (including INH) within your six, then we should have enough mislynches available to win the game. It's a team effort though, so get to it. If anyone sees a flaw in my math or my logic, lemme have it.

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] ,

What happens if someone uses a patronum, which includes protecting themselves from dark arts, but they are also targeted by Imperio, which changes their targets?

Man, point.

timmer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:33 pm Dragon D. Luffy ,

What happens if someone uses a patronum, which includes protecting themselves from dark arts, but they are also targeted by Imperio, which changes their targets?

Patronus beats Imperio.

I guess there's one other possibility. Hold up.

Responding to Jay's call for POE

Players I'd be comfortable eliminating from my pool of suspects right now:
Jay
nutella
timmer
poutanko
juliets
DharmaHelper

Not quite Colin, because I'd need some assurance on the accuracy of poutanko's cop ID. To be clear, I trust the claim, I'm just uncertain about night action manipulation.

That leaves me with the following people as viable suspects:
Jack
kara
Luna
Mac
Quin
speedchuck
sprit

I'm leaving Colin in purgatory for now because I wouldn't argue for his lynch any time soon but my concerns stated above can't be dismissed. Luna would probably be the next player I bump out of that pool, and I highly doubt that both Quin and speedchuck are Death Eaters.

All of this, both sides of my list, come with the caveat that this is the least engaged I've been with a game in a very long time and it's a guarantee that I have missed some crucial information along the line.

It does seem like the prior suspicion against Mac has dissolved and I'm not sure why. Unless I simply missed that, he seems like he'd be a good person to talk about once we've moved past the present issues.
has sprit done anything yet?

If Quin is bad and was targeting his teammate Long Con, what ability might he have been using?

[mention]Quin[/mention], why did you select Sloonei as your other patronum target? If you already said this somewhere just point the way.

[mention]Sloonei[/mention], could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

Okay, revised Quin possibilities:

Quin is:
a. A town vig trying to cover his tracks. In which case, clear things up Quin. It's not worth it.
b. Redirected
c. Mafia creating a fake story to cover something. If he's really a patronus user, then the other guy would have to have a piercing kill, which is scum or ELDER WAND stuff. Given how little sense it makes for Mafia to piercing kill Long Con while Quin protects him, I'd lean towards the Wand despite being ignorant about it.
d. telling the truth, and Speed was redirected to Sloon or Timmer for some reason. If I went to Timmer and then Quin protected him, the other person I saw would be an evil dark arts user.

Thoughts?

I can't imagine why I would be redirected, so I'm leaning toward C. Quin is an evil patronus user trying to save LC and got pierced by an Elder Wand kill. Only way a piercing kill would aim at LC (scum wouldn't redirect a town at LC lol)

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:57 pmd. telling the truth, and Speed was redirected to Sloon or Timmer for some reason. If I went to Timmer and then Quin protected him, the other person I saw would be an evil dark arts user.

Thoughts?

I don't get it. Please restate another way.

Lunalee wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:25 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:24 am poutanko - Town because she is sweet and innocent and has good scum interactions and because no scum would fake a cop check right now right?

I have a theory that people's avatars affect other's views of their posts. Maybe I should change mine to a cute animal and see what happens

I tried this once and it just made it worse.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:58 pm I can't imagine why I would be redirected, so I'm leaning toward C. Quin is an evil patronus user trying to save LC and got pierced by an Elder Wand kill. Only way a piercing kill would aim at LC (scum wouldn't redirect a town at LC lol)

What do you mean you can’t imagine why you’d be redirected?

People suspect me a lot less when I was Calvin than they do when I'm angry bear.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:02 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:57 pmd. telling the truth, and Speed was redirected to Sloon or Timmer for some reason. If I went to Timmer and then Quin protected him, the other person I saw would be an evil dark arts user.

Thoughts?

I don't get it. Please restate another way.

If I were redirected to watch Timmer, that would mean Quin and ??? visited timmer. Quin would be telling the truth, meaning he protected timmer from being roleblocked or redirected by ???. ??? would likely be scum trying to mess with the known vig.

Why would I be redirected, though? Especially to Timmer?

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:03 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:58 pm I can't imagine why I would be redirected, so I'm leaning toward C. Quin is an evil patronus user trying to save LC and got pierced by an Elder Wand kill. Only way a piercing kill would aim at LC (scum wouldn't redirect a town at LC lol)

What do you mean you can’t imagine why you’d be redirected?

Why would someone redirect me instead of the known Vig? Or someone with stronger abilities than I have, if they checked them? I'm just a watcher. Further, why redirect me TO the known vig?

Option D is that Quin was telling the truth and I watched Timmer without knowing it. I do not believe that to be the case.

This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:09 pm This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later.

what

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:09 pm This one time I caught Golden and this was a secret code for me to point back to later.

Are you talking about Phenon? I've been thinking about that one.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:55 pm Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

Jack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list.

kara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things)

Luna - Town read, but not comfortable taking her out of this pool. The way INH treated her did not strike me as a teammate interaction.

Mac - I never really can read Mac even though we've been playing together for 100 years. I haven't discerned any notable scum-tells in that time. Sometimes I pick up on town-tells though, and I haven't done that here. As I mentioned in my last post, he seems like someone to talk about after the current episode ends.

Quin - Implicated in a night action dispute with speed. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two.
speedchuck - Implicated in a night action dispute with quin. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two. I might favor speed's version of events if not for the other evidence (poutanko's ID) against him.

sprit - Has sprit done anything yet?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:08 pm Why would I be redirected, though? Especially to Timmer?

If they know you're a watcher, redirecting you to the Not Kill Target would be the idea.

This is all convoluted and I am leaning in the direction of not caring. Straight up reads are more reliable at this point, IMO.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:55 pm Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

Jack - He was my first suspect based on a very minimal reading of his posts. I haven't abandoned that, but I also haven't followed up on it. I've not seen him doing anything alarming since my initial accusation, but I also haven't looked too closely. He'd be in the closest-to-neutral tier of scum reads on a hypothetical rainbow list.

This is not a read.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmkara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things)

This is not a read.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmLuna - Town read, but not comfortable taking her out of this pool. The way INH treated her did not strike me as a teammate interaction.

Why aren't you comfortable?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmMac - I never really can read Mac even though we've been playing together for 100 years. I haven't discerned any notable scum-tells in that time. Sometimes I pick up on town-tells though, and I haven't done that here. As I mentioned in my last post, he seems like someone to talk about after the current episode ends.

This is not a read.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmQuin - Implicated in a night action dispute with speed. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two.

This is not a read.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmspeedchuck - Implicated in a night action dispute with quin. Questions all around, and it seems prudent to pursue one of these two. I might favor speed's version of events if not for the other evidence (poutanko's ID) against him.

This is not a read.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pmsprit - Has sprit done anything yet?

This is not a read.

F-minus

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:55 pm Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

kara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things)

I've just been quietly trying to get myself killed in the Night phases so I can pass peacefully in my sleep rather than worry about arguments.

karavalenge wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:15 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 3:11 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:55 pm Sloonei, could you please provide some quick gut reads on the people you didn't remove from your POE pool?

kara - I'm hardly aware that they're in the game. That's as much my fault as theirs, but they've been quiet so there's not much I can do here (unless, you know, I start to read things)

I've just been quietly trying to get myself killed in the Night phases so I can pass peacefully in my sleep rather than worry about arguments.

I'm sorry if the game has been a headache, kara. We can be an intense bunch sometimes, but it's just because we're chums who know each other well and like to win. I'm glad you're playing with us and I hope you continue to do so!

You might suspect me for being nice again, but that's okay. I'm not worried about it. I want new people to enjoy their time here.