The Syndicate

Ok. Now I truly do not know who to vote for. Somebody killed Roxy and it wasn't me. If you are claiming it wasn't you Llama then it must have been Nev or Mat. I stated I don't mind Nev doing well or even winning (I don't know why I said that, on reflection I guess I don't have to stick to it) so....for the moment I am leaning towards a Matahari vote.

Matahari wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Mata, do you have a read on anyone?

No, I really don't. I was assuming that it was just one player, or could be all.

This is an interesting comment.

Ha ha.....Llama

Snow Dog wrote:Ok. Now I truly do not know who to vote for. Somebody killed Roxy and it wasn't me. If you are claiming it wasn't you Llama then it must have been Nev or Mat. I stated I don't mind Nev doing well or even winning (I don't know why I said that, on reflection I guess I don't have to stick to it) so....for the moment I am leaning towards a Matahari vote.

Please don't vote for Matahari - I'm pretty confident one of us three is a mafia member (one of you two really, but I'm trying to talk in objective observables), and if we lynch mata, then the mafia member can kill another of us tonight, and win. If you actually aren't mafia, then llama can hem and haw and eventually vote for her too, and probably win.

I've lost some of my llama-lean - your philosophical assertions earlier could easily be a smoke-screen to cover for apparently illogical (but actually mafiaic) votes. Mata and Llama - is Snow behaving particularly unusually this game?

It definitely wasn't me, unless I am doing it without knowing somehow. Not only aren't I the killing type, I would have taken out llama instead if I were. Roxy wasn't going to be particularly active, and llama is both active and more familiar with me than anyone else is. On the other hand, I'm the obvious suspect (having organized the group initially), so he would almost certainly leave me alive to draw fire.

Nevinera wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:Ok. Now I truly do not know who to vote for. Somebody killed Roxy and it wasn't me. If you are claiming it wasn't you Llama then it must have been Nev or Mat. I stated I don't mind Nev doing well or even winning (I don't know why I said that, on reflection I guess I don't have to stick to it) so....for the moment I am leaning towards a Matahari vote.

Please don't vote for Matahari - I'm pretty confident one of us three is a mafia member (one of you two really, but I'm trying to talk in objective observables), and if we lynch mata, then the mafia member can kill another of us tonight, and win. If you actually aren't mafia, then llama can hem and haw and eventually vote for her too, and probably win.

I've lost some of my llama-lean - your philosophical assertions earlier could easily be a smoke-screen to cover for apparently illogical (but actually mafiaic) votes. Mata and Llama - is Snow behaving particularly unusually this game?

It definitely wasn't me, unless I am doing it without knowing somehow. Not only aren't I the killing type, I would have taken out llama instead if I were. Roxy wasn't going to be particularly active, and llama is both active and more familiar with me than anyone else is. On the other hand, I'm the obvious suspect (having organized the group initially), so he would almost certainly leave me alive to draw fire.

I'm new to mafia and hardly know Matahari at all. So they can be no real judges of me or my style.

I think your assertion that one of us original three are mafia is wrong. See my previous theories for more on this.

I took a pledge at the beginning to look after our original gang. I will continue too. Matahari as far as I'm concerned is still an outsider.

If this is indeed last man standing, which I still think it is, I think anyone who had the chance to kill would have viewed Roxy as a logical choice. She was the newest arrival and least likely to be mafia, so anyone going up against her in the endgame would be sure to lose. I am not really sure I buy your claim that you would have killed me

I do think Snow Dog has been acting a little weird, though. His insistence that there were no baddies despite the evidence of night kills struck me as very odd.

thellama73 wrote:If this is indeed last man standing, which I still think it is, I think anyone who had the chance to kill would have viewed Roxy as a logical choice. She was the newest arrival and least likely to be mafia, so anyone going up against her in the endgame would be sure to lose. I am not really sure I buy your claim that you would have killed me

I do think Snow Dog has been acting a little weird, though. His insistence that there were no baddies despite the evidence of night kills struck me as very odd.

Well my nefarious friend do as you wish and vote for me. When the game ends all will become clear. I will vote Matahari.

I'll be honest, I would like to see Matahari go too. I still feel solidarity for the group and would like for it to be just us three at the end. Do you have any explanation for how night kills were happening before she arrived though?

Actually Matahari seems to be the only one to know what I'm talking about. And I will be sad to lynch her. But I should stick to the alliance...no?

thellama73 wrote:I'll be honest, I would like to see Matahari go too. I still feel solidarity for the group and would like for it to be just us three at the end. Do you have any explanation for how night kills were happening before she arrived though?

To explain may go over the bounds of game rules. Put it this way. I firmly believe what I say.

Here's my worry though: If we lynch Matahari, then it will be night and one of us will (I think) be killed. I expect it will be me, since Nev has outright said he would choose me if he could and you probably think going up against me in the final two would be harder than going up against nev (you also said you wanted him to win.) So from my perspective, lynching Mata seems like suicide.

I know exactly what snow is speaking of, and I suspect the other two do as well. I'm ready to die though for the sake of the trio, so choose wisely guys.

Matahari wrote:I know exactly what snow is speaking of, and I suspect the other two do as well. I'm ready to die though for the sake of the trio, so choose wisely guys.

Well, I'm not going to vote for you, Mata. And I hope you won't vote for me either.

I'll hold off as long as possible Llama, to see what everyone says, how they feel about each other. Its so much fun being used as a weapon/patsy by the mafia

thellama73 wrote:Here's my worry though: If we lynch Matahari, then it will be night and one of us will (I think) be killed. I expect it will be me, since Nev has outright said he would choose me if he could and you probably think going up against me in the final two would be harder than going up against nev (you also said you wanted him to win.) So from my perspective, lynching Mata seems like suicide.

We can finish the pact if everyone agrees. I don't mind Nev winning at this stage but I don't mind whoever wins ( if I don't win I mean) even Matahari. I think we have all done very well and maybe it is time to vote with our consciences. Or are "pings" or whatever.

Whoever is lynched there will still be a NK I think.

But would there? That would leave two and a definite lynch would be impossible....

We still have plenty of time to ponder this. I may even randomise. Seriously.

How about everyone votes for themselves and we let fate decide?

thellama73 wrote:How about everyone votes for themselves and we let fate decide?

I could live die with that.

I will go ahead and vote myself, and you all can vote me too, if everyone agrees that I should, and I will do it soon, so that you will know I am not trying to be tricky. I know you had a 3 way plan going, and you can get back to that. So everyone weigh in on this, and I'll get to it as soon as you all agree.

hmmm, maybe not. Sounds like snow and llama have a private plan of their own. What do you say Nev?

Well, I don't think I want to wait around, as I don't see us coming to any consensus. I am voting for Nevinera.

Recent events lead me to agree with Snow Dog that there is no "mafia" and that this is truly every man for himself. Snow Dog has been honest about that, as has Mata. Nev was the first one into the Black Lodge, being the first one out of the White Lodge, and proposed the alliance. I also think he is most likely to kill tonight and he said he would kill me, so I am gambling on lynching him first. No doubt he will return fire at me, leaving the decision up to Snow and Mata. I am happy with that.

No private plan, Mata. Just voting my conscience.

thellama73 wrote:No private plan, Mata. Just voting my conscience.

Voting Nev is really putting me on the spot. But he did, foolishly in my opinionj, outright say he would have and would NK you.

thellama73 wrote:No private plan, Mata. Just voting my conscience.

Like 3 minutes ago your conscience wanted every man to vote himself.

Matahari wrote:

thellama73 wrote:No private plan, Mata. Just voting my conscience.

Like 3 minutes ago your conscience wanted every man to vote himself.

I had hoped the winky face would have indicated that the suggestion was hardly serious.

geez, how do I keep overlooking everyones smilies?

oh well, I'll still wait to hear from Nev. I have enjoyed being a pain in the derriere (sp?) thus far, may as well continue until I meet my untimely fate.

thellama73 wrote:

Matahari wrote:

thellama73 wrote:No private plan, Mata. Just voting my conscience.

Like 3 minutes ago your conscience wanted every man to vote himself.

I had hoped the winky face would have indicated that the suggestion was hardly serious.

Even with the winky I seriously was willing.

What I am concerned about now is that Nev doesn't me, gets one of you killed instead, and then kills me at night.

thellama73 wrote:What I am concerned about now is that Nev doesn't me, gets one of you killed instead, and then kills me at night.

Well he's your friend, tie him up for a couple of days.

Snow Dog wrote:

thellama73 wrote:What I am concerned about now is that Nev doesn't me, gets one of you killed instead, and then kills me at night.

Well he's your friend, tie him up for a couple of days.

Unfortunately, we live in different cities, or I would do just that.

Snow Dog wrote: We can finish the pact if everyone agrees. I don't mind Nev winning at this stage but I don't mind whoever wins ( if I don't win I mean) even Matahari. I think we have all done very well and maybe it is time to vote with our consciences. Or are "pings" or whatever.

The pact was always intended to be over when we were reduced to our final number. When we added matahari, that changed our expiration date to be "when everyone but us four is dead". That said, I agreed not to vote for Mata in the first vote after we disbanded as part of incentivizing someone to join with us, and I intend to stick by that.

I would have killed you last night, were I mafia, llama. There's no way to objectively say anything about what I would do *tonight* if I were mafia, because I would already have won - there'd be two people left, and I'd have a night kill. As far as my game analysis goes, the tactics all ended last night when we got to our final day - here we decide it all.

I do not have the power to night kill anyone. I've been playing close to the chest, but if you review the events of the last day there is specific evidence of what my role is.

I notice that you suddenly shifted from talking about possibilities to talking about definites, Llama. That is a symptom that you're attempting to steer the vote onto me by controlling the discourse. While that's not necessarily a bad choice for a civ, it's questionable to commit to it this early in the day - I think that you voted early and started steering because I'm a target of opportunity, and you'll win if anyone dies but you.

Snow Dog wrote: Voting Nev is really putting me on the spot. But he did, foolishly in my opinionj, outright say he would have and would NK you.

That's not foolish. I have been up-front and objective about tactics and strategy all game. My point there was that, if I were mafia, I would have killed Llama last night. Since I did not, it follows that I am not mafia. Llama knew *exactly* what I meant, he's seizing on it as a good excuse to vote early, so he can try to steer the vote from a position of group strength.

Nevinera wrote:

Snow Dog wrote: We can finish the pact if everyone agrees. I don't mind Nev winning at this stage but I don't mind whoever wins ( if I don't win I mean) even Matahari. I think we have all done very well and maybe it is time to vote with our consciences. Or are "pings" or whatever.

The pact was always intended to be over when we were reduced to our final number. When we added matahari, that changed our expiration date to be "when everyone but us four is dead". That said, I agreed not to vote for Mata in the first vote after we disbanded as part of incentivizing someone to join with us, and I intend to stick by that.

I would have killed you last night, were I mafia, llama. There's no way to objectively say anything about what I would do *tonight* if I were mafia, because I would already have won - there'd be two people left, and I'd have a night kill. As far as my game analysis goes, the tactics all ended last night when we got to our final day - here we decide it all.

I do not have the power to night kill anyone. I've been playing close to the chest, but if you review the events of the last day there is specific evidence of what my role is.

I notice that you suddenly shifted from talking about possibilities to talking about definites, Llama. That is a symptom that you're attempting to steer the vote onto me by controlling the discourse. While that's not necessarily a bad choice for a civ, it's questionable to commit to it this early in the day - I think that you voted early and started steering because I'm a target of opportunity, and you'll win if anyone dies but you.

Snow Dog wrote: Voting Nev is really putting me on the spot. But he did, foolishly in my opinionj, outright say he would have and would NK you.

That's not foolish. I have been up-front and objective about tactics and strategy all game. My point there was that, if I were mafia, I would have killed Llama last night. Since I did not, it follows that I am not mafia. Llama knew *exactly* what I meant, he's seizing on it as a good excuse to vote early, so he can try to steer the vote from a position of group strength.

I never agreed to anything about being a four man team. Or disbanding it when it was reduced to four. For me it was always the three.

If you survive this lynch tonight who will you kill tonight? If you could of course.

ibwaop That sounded rubbish. NEV...if YOU survive who would you kill tonight>?

Here's some direct evidence.

If I were mafia, the best strategy for me at this point (since I already have one vote) would be to wait and see if either of you vote for not-me, and then join you, ensuring a likely survival for myself (and therefore victory).

Since I am *not* mafia, and I think Llama is, I'm going to commit to voting for him now, despite that that drastically hurts my chance of survival - I am convinced that if I survive, but we do not catch the mafioso this turn, I've still lost.

I have consistently acted in ways that would not be optimal for a killer this game. People love to throw wine-in-front-of-me arguments around for this stuff ("he's acting that way to throw us off!"), but those have never really held water, because of the inherent recursion. I am an extremely logical player, and I play the most optimal strategy I can come up with - if I were mafia, I would spend today trying to spread doubt around, and get either of you two to vote for llama *or the other of you*, and join in afterward.

*voted llama*

linki snow:

Snow Dog wrote:I never agreed to anything about being a four man team. Or disbanding it when it was reduced to four. For me it was always the three.

Here is where I outlined what I meant by 'adding someone to the group': viewtopic.php?f=20&t=145&start=200#p19180

Here is where I suggested that we add a player: viewtopic.php?f=20&t=145&start=150#p19146

Here is where it appears that you agreed with that plan: viewtopic.php?f=20&t=145&start=150#p19164

If I misunderstood your comment, I apologize for changing the plan on you, but you really should have complained before now; I've made the endgame plans pretty clear I though.

Snow Dog wrote:ibwaop That sounded rubbish. NEV...if YOU survive who would you kill tonight>?

If I were mafia? Depends on who got lynched of course. If matahari were still around, her definitely; otherwise probably Llama, since he tried to get a lynch mob started for me today.

From your link I cannot find where I agreed, Nev. But I just went along with it.

I agree with Snow that none of us is mafia, or all of us are, and that killing one person will not stop the night kills. I based my vote on that reasoning. Since I know that I will not have an NK tonight, I went after the person I thought most likely to try and kill me.

thellama73 wrote:I agree with Snow that none of us is mafia, or all of us are, and that killing one person will not stop the night kills. I based my vote on that reasoning. Since I know that I will not have an NK tonight, I went after the person I thought most likely to try and kill me.

If you think that either none of us is mafia or all of us are, then you can disprove option B by your not being mafia, right? If you're talking about some kind of 'mafia but doesn't know it', then it hardly matters who I am likely to want killed, since I wouldn't have any control over that power.

I just don't know who I will vote for now. Maybe Mat and then let her decide. Either she votes for me to give us all one or she decides between Nev/Llama.

Snow Dog wrote:I just don't know who I will vote for now. Maybe Mat and then let her decide. Either she votes for me to give us all one or she decides between Nev/Llama.

sorry for making you guys wait so long, I'm trying to catch up housework today. I dont know, Snow, which of them the the most sincere to you?

*sounds the most sincere?

Matahari wrote:*sounds the most sincere?

They both sound equally sincere. I know. No help at all.

well, then who do you think sounds the worst? I thought it was strange that Llama never acknowledged what you and I said about the mafia/everyone, so I could see myself voting there.

Gotta finish the dishes, brb

Matahari wrote:well, then who do you think sounds the worst? I thought it was strange that Llama never acknowledged what you and I said about the mafia/everyone, so I could see myself voting there.

Gotta finish the dishes, brb

I'm doing dishes too.

The simple fact is, well it seems to be, there can only be one winner. We are all worthy. But we must lynch someone or let it be random. I've known Llama a lot longer than Nev. Should that be my guide? Seems unfair but what else have I got?

Snow Dog wrote:

Matahari wrote:well, then who do you think sounds the worst? I thought it was strange that Llama never acknowledged what you and I said about the mafia/everyone, so I could see myself voting there.

Gotta finish the dishes, brb

I'm doing dishes too.

The simple fact is, well it seems to be, there can only be one winner. We are all worthy. But we must lynch someone or let it be random. I've known Llama a lot longer than Nev. Should that be my guide? Seems unfair but what else have I got?

If it guides you to believe that Llama is less likely to be bad, then go for it. On the its always good to spend more time with new friends, ya?

Snow Dog wrote:

Matahari wrote:well, then who do you think sounds the worst? I thought it was strange that Llama never acknowledged what you and I said about the mafia/everyone, so I could see myself voting there.

Gotta finish the dishes, brb

I'm doing dishes too.

The simple fact is, well it seems to be, there can only be one winner. We are all worthy. But we must lynch someone or let it be random. I've known Llama a lot longer than Nev. Should that be my guide? Seems unfair but what else have I got?

You two could split the vote between the two of us. I'd take a 50% shot over just being lynched.

Matahari wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:

Matahari wrote:well, then who do you think sounds the worst? I thought it was strange that Llama never acknowledged what you and I said about the mafia/everyone, so I could see myself voting there.

Gotta finish the dishes, brb

I'm doing dishes too.

The simple fact is, well it seems to be, there can only be one winner. We are all worthy. But we must lynch someone or let it be random. I've known Llama a lot longer than Nev. Should that be my guide? Seems unfair but what else have I got?

If it guides you to believe that Llama is less likely to be bad, then go for it. On the its always good to spend more time with new friends, ya?

That's the problem. It is my firm belief that no one is bad. Or at least we are all equally guilty.

ok, so you want to vote for nev, and I want to vote for llama. Is that right?

Snow Dog wrote:
If it guides you to believe that Llama is less likely to be bad, then go for it. On the its always good to spend more time with new friends, ya?

That's the problem. It is my firm belief that no one is bad. Or at least we are all equally guilty.[/quote]

That is my belief as well.

Matahari wrote:ok, so you want to vote for nev, and I want to vote for llama. Is that right?

I don't know.

Snow Dog wrote:

Matahari wrote:ok, so you want to vote for nev, and I want to vote for llama. Is that right?

I don't know.

well, as I see it, I could vote for whochever of you 3 I want, and snow will come along and vote whoever and thats it
so I think I'm going to eeney-meenie-minee-mo now