Page 8 of 24
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:30 am
by Scirrus
So it looks like we have a couple of scenario's here:
1. Mafia tried to NK Alison and Epi blocked the kill by protecting her.
Given how I feel about Alison I don't know. If she's town, mafia would have known her main scum reads were town so it would have been useful for them to keep her alive. If she's mafia, then well, this scenario doesn't work lol.
2. LC carried the kill and fingersplints successfully blocked.
LC wasn't very suspected Day 1 so I wouldn't surprised if he was the one to do it. I don't know if this is too angleshooty to mention but if LC has teammates that aren't around/MAI, they wouldn't have been able to submit the kill themselves anyway.
3. There's some other role that hasn't been claimed that somehow resulted in only the Marmot kill going through
Who knows
4. Mafia also killed Marmot?
Lol. I feel like no.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:30 am
by G-Man
One more answer to a question that's worth sharing (and adding to my OP content):
Unless otherwise specified in communication from the host, my personal philosophy is that individual players and factions may choose to abstain from using personal and/or factional power actions during the course of a game.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:32 am
by Scirrus
Oh. Well that's less fun if that's what happend
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:33 am
by Epignosis
Scirrus, stop asking the host so many damn questions. Jesus. G-Man has other shit to do.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:37 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Long Con/Grogu/reywaS would be on another level.
I'd guess the order of likelihood is:
Long Con blocked >> Alison saved >>> Kill abstained > Something not already revealed in role claims (e.g. "maybe" reywaS is bulletproof and my hide directed a kill to him).
Also I believe fingersplints. Maybe that's the most important development. She projected her block the moment the day began with "were you messed with?".
That's legit. splints is town.
Reduce the game with one more civilian and we're fine: Epignosis, Scirrus, fingersplints, X, Y -- I am okay with Poison as X.
Re: Mafia (DAY 0)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:38 am
by Epignosis
Long Con wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:40 pm
Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:37 pm
Won't you be my neighbor?
Kind of one of the top GIFs of the Internet in my opinion. Also, yeah, neighbourize me bro!
I talked about this already. It sounds like LC wanted me to use my "neibourize" power on him (gain BTSC likely). We all know how it went the last time I had BTSC with LC.
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:26 pm
Enrique wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:07 pm
Sure would be nice to have Long Con around.
Thank man! I think Epi is not evil.
I still don't know where this thought comes from.
Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:28 pm
I'll sheep JJJ.
[VOTE:
Nanook] aubergine
Most of what I have read was JJJ vs Epi, and I am going town-town for that for now.
I still don't know where this thought comes from.
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:11 am
Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:08 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:42 pm
I'm beginning to scope possible mafia pairings.
This, folks, is horseshit.
They're "possible" because no mafia has been caught yet. Any combo is possible.
This is JJJ trying to look useful. This is what he does. It's busy work.
Please, please, please stop listening to his horseshit and lynch him Day 2 after I'm gone.
Ok.
Huh.
Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 8:50 pm
Wait, does everyone but me have a power role?
Yes, yes we do. What's yours?
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:38 am
by Scirrus
Know way of knowing for sure what happened but w/e
[VOTE:
Long Con] aubergine
Question for the lovely people here: In games advertised as role madness here, is that typically mean that ALL roles are PR's, or can there be a few vanilla roles sprinkled in?
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:39 am
by Scirrus
*No way of knowing for sure. I can't english.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:45 am
by Scirrus
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:37 am
Long Con/Grogu/reywaS would be on another level.
I'd guess the order of likelihood is:
Long Con blocked >> Alison saved >>> Kill abstained > Something not already revealed in role claims (e.g. "maybe" reywaS is bulletproof and my hide directed a kill to him).
Also I believe fingersplints. Maybe that's the most important development. She projected her block the moment the day began with "were you messed with?".
That's legit. splints is town.
Reduce the game with one more civilian and we're fine: Epignosis, Scirrus, fingersplints, X, Y -- I am okay with Poison as X.
Oh yeah that's a pretty good point. I'm good with that.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:46 am
by Long Con
Huh, sounds like you'll have to chop me. I'm not bad, I assume Alison was protected. I really hope she comes back with a red check. Should I out my role?
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:49 am
by Epignosis
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:46 am
Huh, sounds like you'll have to chop me. I'm not bad, I assume Alison was protected. I really hope she comes back with a red check. Should I out my role?
My vote isn't locked. There's plenty of time and we have other people to hear from, as you have referenced.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:52 am
by Long Con
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:49 am
Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:46 am
Huh, sounds like you'll have to chop me. I'm not bad, I assume Alison was protected. I really hope she comes back with a red check. Should I out my role?
My vote isn't locked. There's plenty of time and we have other people to hear from, as you have referenced.
Yeah, but I don't really have anything to defend with, I have hardly been here yet, and I think people have decided already. It was just an unfortunate roleblock. I think an Alison red check would be my only hope. LOL I'd vote for me at this point.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:55 am
by Epignosis
Scirrus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:13 pm
mafia was messed with
i claim vig and shot marmot
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:37 am
Long Con/Grogu/reywaS would be on another level.
I'd guess the order of likelihood is:
Long Con blocked >> Alison saved >>> Kill abstained > Something not already revealed in role claims (e.g. "maybe" reywaS is bulletproof and my hide directed a kill to him).
Also I believe fingersplints. Maybe that's the most important development. She projected her block the moment the day began with "were you messed with?".
That's legit. splints is town.
Reduce the game with one more civilian and we're fine: Epignosis, Scirrus, fingersplints, X, Y -- I am okay with Poison as X.
Scirrus is mafia and claims vigilante.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:00 am
by Scirrus
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:55 am
Scirrus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:13 pm
mafia was messed with
i claim vig and shot marmot
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:37 am
Long Con/Grogu/reywaS would be on another level.
I'd guess the order of likelihood is:
Long Con blocked >> Alison saved >>> Kill abstained > Something not already revealed in role claims (e.g. "maybe" reywaS is bulletproof and my hide directed a kill to him).
Also I believe fingersplints. Maybe that's the most important development. She projected her block the moment the day began with "were you messed with?".
That's legit. splints is town.
Reduce the game with one more civilian and we're fine: Epignosis, Scirrus, fingersplints, X, Y -- I am okay with Poison as X.
Scirrus is mafia and claims vigilante.
Yeah you caught me!
I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for your meddling!
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:00 am
by Long Con
I had that thought, but then I figured it's probably true because otherwise no one would speak up about messing with the mafia.
Then two separate actions, at least, have possible mafia-messing going on. Did Scirrus know about the block being in the game? Don't you have other powers that don't mess with the mafia kill?
How much of a risk was it if he's lying?
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:04 am
by Epignosis
In fact, I have a problem with the way Scirrus claimed.
Marmot died and four minutes later, Scirrus claimed not one but two things.
Scirrus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:13 pm
mafia was messed with
i claim vig and shot marmot
Why not wait and see what reactions take place after Marmot's death? Why put that out there right away? Nobody was suspecting Scirrus to begin with, and if anybody did later, Scirrus could announce then.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:07 am
by Scirrus
I could have waited a bit longer, but I wanted to be in the thread to work with people and see what most likely happened at night
I'm going to sleep in a bit so not much time for me to hang around in the thread
24 hour days and all, thought it would be best to be prompt
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:09 am
by Scirrus
I'm meeting up with some friends tomorrow night after work so not sure if I'll get much time, if any, in the thread before EoD
If I get a chance i'll pop in though
G'night!
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:09 am
by Scirrus
You can choose to believe my claim or not. I recommend you that do though!
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:10 am
by Scirrus
Oh yeah, I should also mention that i'm a 1-shot vig. I'm all used up.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:17 am
by Scirrus
Some may consider this is WIFOM, but i think that claiming vig as mafia seems like a risk for a lot of reasons. You have to kill someone who is largely in the POE which reduces your power to mislynch during the day phase. I don't know often mafia does this/has done this here, but i've never seen it, and that's a risk that I wouldn't want to take on as mafia, fwiw.
Like, just kill people who won't be yeeted and bring you closer to your win condition.
Just my 2 cents
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:18 am
by Epignosis
Save your posts. Go to bed.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:24 am
by Scirrus
I have 15 more. It's fine.
anyway my POE is still pretty much the same
LC/Alison/reywas/Grogu
Going to sleep fr now lol
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:09 am
by Alison
[VOTE:
LC] aubergine
I asked a known protector to protect me. If mafia targeted me last night it was with a strongman role. Mafia does not nokill with three claimed strong PRs on the field. Ergo mafia was roleblocked.
Why did you shoot Marmot, Scirrus?
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:11 am
by Alison
I lied about being a full cop. I'm partially insane - my check has a 50% chance to be wrong. The check on Enrique came back mafia. Therefore Enrique has a 50% chance to be town and a 50% chance to be mafia, which is >rand.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:14 am
by Enrique
I still haven't done the more in-depth re-read I wanted to earlier, and I've mostly skipped over the last page that talks about Long Con more specifically (from what I see he would be a good lynch, will pay more attn tomorrow). I just want to say... I feel a very strange break when I read JJJ's posts in this game, the way he talks like I'm supposed to be agreeing with him but I'm really not. I've experienced supatown (or whatever it's called now, or whatever it was, you'll notice I never know what any word means) JJJ before, and I can't tell you what it is but this time he just leaves me perplexed. I can't follow how his interpretations of the game / players develop. I just read that post he made where the gist is that of course the mafia (referring to his turn on Nanook) would try to discredit him with the whole difference check him but... I don't get it... of course he's made the most, and some of the most substantive posts in the game yet, but not much of their content has been validated yet and I can't say that he's earned that supreme confidence that we're supposed to have on him or anything close.
I could probably be more specific than this, I know I'm mostly speaking in generalities but atm it's mostly a bad vibe. I'll try to be when I'm ISOing (tomorrow), if I don't feel any more positively about it by then.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:16 am
by Enrique
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:11 am
I lied about being a full cop. I'm partially insane - my check has a 50% chance to be wrong. The check on Enrique came back mafia. Therefore Enrique has a 50% chance to be town and a 50% chance to be mafia, which is >rand.
Okay that's pretty funny though.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:24 am
by Enrique
Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:04 am
In fact, I have a problem with the way Scirrus claimed.
Marmot died and four minutes later, Scirrus claimed not one but two things.
Scirrus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:13 pm
mafia was messed with
i claim vig and shot marmot
Why not wait and see what reactions take place after Marmot's death? Why put that out there right away? Nobody was suspecting Scirrus to begin with, and if anybody did later, Scirrus could announce then.
Maybe it wasn't the right way to proceed but I don't have a particular issue w his version of events. He realizes somebody fucked with the mafia kill, thus somebody's night actions could immediately reveal the foiled killer, we could find the criminal right away or at least be able to collect evidence and discuss it through the day. It
is possible that it's all a lie but at least the timing isn't suspicious to me.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:26 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Enrique wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:14 am
I still haven't done the more in-depth re-read I wanted to earlier, and I've mostly skipped over the last page that talks about Long Con more specifically (from what I see he would be a good lynch, will pay more attn tomorrow). I just want to say... I feel a very strange break when I read JJJ's posts in this game, the way he talks like I'm
supposed to be agreeing with him but I'm really not. I've experienced supatown (or whatever it's called now, or whatever it was, you'll notice I never know what any word means) JJJ before, and I can't tell you what it is but this time he just leaves me perplexed. I can't follow how his interpretations of the game / players develop.
I just read that post he made where the gist is that of course the mafia (referring to his turn on Nanook) would try to discredit him with the whole difference check him but... I don't get it... of course he's made the most, and some of the most substantive posts in the game yet, but not much of their content has been validated yet and I can't say that he's earned that supreme confidence that we're supposed to have on him or anything close.
I could probably be more specific than this, I know I'm mostly speaking in generalities but atm it's mostly a bad vibe. I'll try to be when I'm ISOing (tomorrow), if I don't feel any more positively about it by then.
I don't expect anyone to have supreme confidence in me. They rarely do in this game or most others. I may speak assertively, but I do so within my own mindset to express the view of the game that is exclusively mine. I am sharing my reads and my perspectives, and the rest (interpreting my commentary, agreeing with it, disagreeing with it, suspecting it, believing it, whatever) is for everyone else to deal with however they may.
I feel like I get this stuff a lot -- the notion that I expect everyone to love me or have me as a top town read. I think there's cognitive bias in there that results from the leadership I try to adopt -- that by way of my desire to provide effective leadership, I inherently expect to be treated
like a leader.
Let it be clear. I don't. Sometimes I am treated like a leader, but in recent memory it is pretty rare. More commonly I am treated as Guy Who Posts a Lot Who Rarely Ever Makes Alignment-Indicative Posts. That's what I expect.
With regard to the bolded thing: do you not understand why I would be perturbed by Nanook's difference check read given your own suspicion of me at the time and the progression of events? Clearly I was wrong, but you were very much in my mind when I had that interpretation.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:33 am
by Enrique
I don't remember exactly what Nanook was going for besides mentioning the difference check (that I didn't understand at the time and just kind of shrugged off). I'll look into that tomorrow too. I just remember thinking your turn was very sharp, and even though I disagreed with the idea of a difference check (when it was explained) and thought it was kinda weird I still didn't think so much of it. It wasn't very likely that a lot of people would share his opinion anyway and it would've been a weird mafia move. I dunno, I'm super sleepy. Will use better brain tomorrow.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:56 am
by Alison
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:11 am
I lied about being a full cop. I'm partially insane - my check has a 50% chance to be wrong. The check on Enrique came back mafia. Therefore Enrique has a 50% chance to be town and a 50% chance to be mafia, which is >rand.
This logic doesn't actually work because it applies even if I green checked him. So cancel this.
Long Con and Scirrus is my solve.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:58 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
@Enrique, I am sure my own severe reaction was influenced by my own bias. It was about me after all. I was also influenced by general suspicion of Nanook. I was just as happy to chop him as Epi around that time, and then when did that I blew a gasket. Oh well. Ironically it's that kind of hair-on-fire shit I do late in day phases almost exclusively when I am a civilian. I am too measured a mafioso to scream and yell without a very good reason.
Folks may not believe that at face value and that's okay.
Separate notes:
~ I don't think Scirrus' vigilante claim is fake. I have no trouble seeing his claim from a civilian view and considerable trouble seeing it from a mafia view.
As a civilian who knows he shot Marmot, informing the thread of shenanigans is both an innate desire and also [in the eyes of some types of players myself included] what feels like the most responsible play. Folks need to know what's going on so that their hunt may be oriented appropriately. I think I'd have handled it similarly -- maybe not quite so immediate, but still early in the day.
When I consider the mafia angle, I just find myself asking "why". Scirrus was under no meaningful pressure. If he'd have been blocked himself that might make sense, but splints blocked LC. Even if Scirrus is LC's teammate... why? There are four scenarios to consider that I can think of:
1) The mafia team, including Scirrus, killed Marmot. Play with the WIFOM if you like, but that also inspires a bunch of "why". Marmot was total chop bait, and Scirrus didn't really need to employ such a gambit to earn credit -- he already had enough credit to get by.
2) The mafia team, including Scirrus, did not kill Marmot. He knows the real kill was stopped or abstained, and therefore someone else had to kill Marmot. If so, Scirrus claiming the kill himself exposes him instantly to whoever actually did the killing. That begs the question again. Why.
3) The mafia team, including a mafia-vigilante Scirrus, did not kill Marmot. Mafia Scirrus vigilante-killed Marmot. Mafia vigilantes present balancing challenges, and I don't know that I believe that is likely in most 12-player permutations. It could fit in a 9 vs. 2, so if you want to go there then at least you're stuck with the "why".
4) Scirrus is a killing independent role e.g. serial killer. If so, that claim was an oops. I kinda doubt he'd make it if he's all alone. Exposure is death.
~ I am considering the math of Alison's claim, and at nearly 2 AM might be thinking stupid. If Enrique is town (at random approximately 70% chance maybe), the check is 50% likely to say town/mafia. So the probably of a mafia check overall is .7 x .5, or .35. If Enrique is mafia (approximately 30% chance), the likelihood of a mafia check is .3 x .5 or .15. OMG those add up to .5, meaning the chance of town is .5 too. Nevermind I'm am idiot. I already typed all that shit so it's getting posted. Laugh at me please.
~ All that considered, I don't think Alison's [new] claim has any bearing on my read on her. She can still be mafia and is still in my POE pool. Long Con's alignment may be important there. If he's mafia, then he probably was blocked -- Alison's alignment could go either way. If Long Con is a civilian, then he wasn't blocked and Alison was probably protected -- so she's a civilian.
I keep feeling the urge to replace all instances of "civilian" with "non-mafioso" due to independent possibilities, so whatever be cognizant of that. I don't suggest we do anything about it though. The end of night doesn't seem to suggest it's anymore likely than it seemed before.
Forgive the big post and the wall of words. I'm consolidating to make the most of 30.
[10]
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:01 am
by Alison
Why can't Scirrus be a mafia vigilante?
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:01 am
by Alison
LC carries factional kill to Epi's door. Scirrus uses extra KP on marmot. It doesn't seem that ludicrous.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:03 am
by Alison
Why is a more interesting question. He could have a PR read on Marmot, or think that the obvious kills (claimed PRs) are too likely to be protected. Or he could shoot a consensus suspect to make himself look like a town vig. You told us to analyze the game on behavior and not get into the setup spec weeds. On behavior scirrus is scum.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:05 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:01 am
LC carries factional kill to Epi's door. Scirrus uses extra KP on marmot. It doesn't seem that ludicrous.
I think it seems pretty farfetched, and that you're calling it a top possibility makes me doubt you in general.
There are too many assumptions:
1) Scirrus wouldn't do what he did as a town vigilante
2) The mafia have a vigilante
3) The mafia were willing to use their vigilante kill on a consensus suspect that could have been chopped -- particularly one that claimed vanilla when both you and Epi existed with strong claims
4) Scirrus felt it was necessary to spam out his claim immediately to cover for a failed kill
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:06 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:03 am
Why is a more interesting question. He could have a PR read on Marmot, or think that the obvious kills (claimed PRs) are too likely to be protected. Or he could shoot a consensus suspect to make himself look like a town vig. You told us to analyze the game on behavior and not get into the setup spec weeds.
On behavior scirrus is scum.
I don't see that and haven't at any point.
I'm going to need a very good argument. Nothing on this page is even close to good enough.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:11 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
A mafia vigilante is conceivable in a 9:2:1 game or a 10:2 game. Town would have strength by the numbers already and their role allotments would likely compensate for the worse. Maybe add a pinch of power if G-Man thinks Rackets are inherently pro-mafia (I do).
Town had an every night watcher (Marmot). Town had an every night doctor (Nanook). Town probably has a three-powered JOAT (Epignosis). Town has my hider role, which is butts but still actually presents a minimal chance of killing mafia by redirection.
This is hard to believe.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:19 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Long Con/Alison/X
That's my team theory right now. X is likely someone among [Grogu, reywaS, Enrique]
Not sure Enrique and Alison are a great fit together. The cop check stuff can be WIFOM, but I don't feel that. So I'd lean to the two inactives.
[14]
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:26 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Gonna be frank:
I don't think there's any way in hell a civilian Alison thinks [mafia vigilante Scirrus] is the most probable explanation for these events. The logic is loaded with holes, the assumptions are too numerous, and the odds at face value should seem low. I also don't really believe her suspicion of Scirrus's behavior is real and have been tweaked by that since she got here.
She fits just fine with Long Con, and I feel like two mafia are solved. If anyone has a reason to calm my bravado, go for it. But I feel pretty damned good about this.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:33 am
by Alison
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:05 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:01 am
LC carries factional kill to Epi's door. Scirrus uses extra KP on marmot. It doesn't seem that ludicrous.
I think it seems pretty farfetched, and that you're calling it a top possibility makes me doubt you in general.
There are too many assumptions:
1) Scirrus wouldn't do what he did as a town vigilante
2) The mafia have a vigilante
3) The mafia were willing to use their vigilante kill on a consensus suspect that could have been chopped -- particularly one that claimed vanilla when both you and Epi existed with strong claims
4) Scirrus felt it was necessary to spam out his claim immediately to cover for a failed kill
I don't think 1) is a necessary assumption.
2) seems like a well justified assumption given what we know about town power roles this game.
3) I suspect Long Con tried to kill Epi. Epi was on me, so I wasn't a valid kill target that night.
4) is not a questionable assumption - Scirrus shot consensus scumread, so claiming the shot seems reasonable as it's not something that anyone would question.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:35 am
by Alison
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:11 am
A mafia vigilante is conceivable in a 9:2:1 game or a 10:2 game. Town would have strength by the numbers already and their role allotments would likely compensate for the worse. Maybe add a pinch of power if G-Man thinks Rackets are inherently pro-mafia (I do).
Town had an every night watcher (Marmot). Town had an every night doctor (Nanook). Town probably has a three-powered JOAT (Epignosis). Town has my hider role, which is butts but still actually presents a minimal chance of killing mafia by redirection.
This is hard to believe.
Which is more likely: town has 4 PRs and a mafia vigilante to balance things out, or town has 5 PRs (we'll take my own role as vanilla-ish since it's so unreliable)?
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:35 am
by Alison
Scirrus is mafia because his early readslist was a player salad, his posts have been uninspiring, he's refused to get his hands dirty in the fray, and his response to my case was an instant OMGUS and attempt to discredit it. He is mafia on play.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:36 am
by Alison
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:26 am
Gonna be frank:
I don't think there's any way in hell a civilian Alison thinks [mafia vigilante Scirrus] is the most probable explanation for these events. The logic is loaded with holes, the assumptions are too numerous, and the odds at face value should seem low. I also don't really believe her suspicion of Scirrus's behavior is real and have been tweaked by that since she got here.
She fits just fine with Long Con, and I feel like two mafia are solved. If anyone has a reason to calm my bravado, go for it. But I feel pretty damned good about this.
The logic is perfectly sound to be honest, and you're just wrong.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:40 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:35 am
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:11 am
A mafia vigilante is conceivable in a 9:2:1 game or a 10:2 game. Town would have strength by the numbers already and their role allotments would likely compensate for the worse. Maybe add a pinch of power if G-Man thinks Rackets are inherently pro-mafia (I do).
Town had an every night watcher (Marmot). Town had an every night doctor (Nanook). Town probably has a three-powered JOAT (Epignosis). Town has my hider role, which is butts but still actually presents a minimal chance of killing mafia by redirection.
This is hard to believe.
Which is more likely: town has 4 PRs and a mafia vigilante to balance things out, or town has 5 PRs (we'll take my own role as vanilla-ish since it's so unreliable)?
3 mafia with a high-powered town. 9:3 is a simple alignment, and rackets demand strong towns by default. I don't see 9:3 with a mafia vigilante. I don't think 9:2:1 has a town watcher and doctor with infinite shots regardless of a mafia vigilante. I think all of this speculation distracts from the most important things:
Why does mafia Scirrus do it
really? What is
really the point? A bunch of "claim for credit" wifom spam doesn't cut it for me, and it doesn't fit the behavior I have seen.
You give me a behavioral case that Scirrus is mafia and I will read it. So far though you haven't remotely convinced me.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:41 am
by Alison
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:35 am
Scirrus is mafia because his early readslist was a player salad, his posts have been uninspiring, he's refused to get his hands dirty in the fray, and his response to my case was an instant OMGUS and attempt to discredit it. He is mafia on play.
^
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:44 am
by Alison
I don't think Scirrus shot Marmot to claim for credit I think Scirrus shot Marmot because JJJ/Alison are most likely protected, Epi was taken care of by LC (or so he thought), and so the shot pool for a hypothetical Mafia Vigilante Scirrus is {splints, Grogu, Poison, Enrique, Marmot}, and out of those, Marmot is the most likely to catch a scum during the day since the others are all kinda low energy/distracted/gimmicky. It's a SPK, and the fact that it helps cast doubt on you and me + it's easy to say you did as Vigilante is fine.
If Scirrus is town Vigilante, why doesn't he shoot me? He thought I was scum. I was attacking Marmot.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:49 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:41 am
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:35 am
Scirrus is mafia because his early readslist was a player salad, his posts have been uninspiring, he's refused to get his hands dirty in the fray, and his response to my case was an instant OMGUS and attempt to discredit it. He is mafia on play.
^
Absolute complete yawn.
That was not a player salad, it was a proposed mafia team.
His posts have been more "inspired" than just about everyone on this roster in my eyes.
"He refused to get his hands dirty and in the fray" is vague nothing, and I don't think it's even true. He voted Marmot on a whim at chardonnay's suggestion. He moved his vote around a decent amount -- Enrique literally documented his vote changes. He voted for both Epignosis and Nanook within the last hour of Day 1. His hands were just as dirty as mine were and you call me town.
To call his reception of your case "OMGUS" or "discrediting" does not reflect anything in his ISO. I am literally staring at it right now. He gave a general read early toDay:
Scirrus wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:20 am
Most Iffy:
Alison (chardonnay) - Most of her reads lacked the explanation that I usually see from Alison. With Marmot’s flip I know that both her main suspects D1 were town, which is NAGL. At this point I wouldn’t mind yeeting her. I do want to see more from her though.
He said your reads lacked explanation. Do you think you explained your reads in a thorough and Alison-like manner? He observed problematic chardonnay suspects. Is that "OMGUS"? It's not as though he was excited about your slot
before you occupied it. I see
you discrediting
him on the basis of what really looks like nothing to me.
Nothing.
Give me something and I will read it. I mean something thorough.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:52 am
by JaggedJimmyJay
Alison wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:44 am
I don't think Scirrus shot Marmot to claim for credit I think Scirrus shot Marmot because JJJ/Alison are most likely protected, Epi was taken care of by LC (or so he thought), and so the shot pool for a hypothetical Mafia Vigilante Scirrus is {splints, Grogu, Poison, Enrique, Marmot}, and out of those, Marmot is the most likely to catch a scum during the day since the others are all kinda low energy/distracted/gimmicky. It's a SPK, and the fact that it helps cast doubt on you and me + it's easy to say you did as Vigilante is fine.
If Scirrus is town Vigilante, why doesn't he shoot me? He thought I was scum. I was attacking Marmot.
Scirrus was anti-Marmot throughout Day 1. You ought to know that given that in your entrance you had plenty of Scirrus complaints to offer.
I am going to end my part in this immediate dialogue here both to conserve posts and to let other people say their pieces, including Scirrus himself.
[88]
I have 12 left. Expect me to use them slowly tomorrow prior to the end period.
Re: Mafia (DAY 2)
Posted: Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:08 am
by Alison
I think my reads were pretty well explained, yes, and that is a bad defense. I know Scirrus was anti-Marmot but it seemed to me that he was more anti-Alison and since Alison is scumreading Marmot, even if you suspect both you should logically resolve Alison first. Unless you think he shot Marmot over me because he was afraid Epi would protect me?