The Syndicate

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:03 pm**

In which if that were the case would probably be the most likely scenario where NAA is Mafia as I really don't see Nanook not doing the kill N2.
This thunderdome probably isn't MvM with 2 left and this many town though so probably would just mean NAA and Sig are Mafia if NAA is Mafia.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:04 pm**

Ergo, it makes more sense that he's Maf.

Oh yeah, he CFDed Sean.

What did NAA say about it when he switched? I think it was little to nothing IIRC

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:05 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:02 pm There's more scenarios where NAA is Maf than Town in your list.

True, but quantity is not representative of likelyness.
Really the most likley ones are as I said NAA and Sig being Mafia together, NAA legitimately just guessing, or NAA copping you.
I highly doubt the other ones just from the circumstances and information available of the game. 99% of the time it's one of those 3.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:05 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:03 pm In which if that were the case would probably be the most likely scenario where NAA is Mafia as I really don't see Nanook not doing the kill N2.
This thunderdome probably isn't MvM with 2 left and this many town though so probably would just mean NAA and Sig are Mafia if NAA is Mafia.

It's my belief that Sig & NAA are teammates

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:07 pm**

NAA said nothing all of Day 1 then just with 2 minutes left said "Let's kill Seanzie" and everyone followed

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:08 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:07 pm NAA said nothing all of Day 1 then just with 2 minutes left said "Let's kill Seanzie" and everyone followed

Well, if that don't sound wolfy

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:09 pm**

Honest question Falcon. How willing are you to go so far as to 1 for 1?

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:11 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:09 pm Honest question Falcon. How willing are you to go so far as to 1 for 1?

I'm not sure I understand what you mean

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:11 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:11 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:09 pm Honest question Falcon. How willing are you to go so far as to 1 for 1?
I'm not sure I understand what you mean

I mean if NAA and you ar eboth lynched are you OK with that even if NAA is Town?

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:16 pm**

Basically how reasonably confident are you this can never end in a mischop?

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:18 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:11 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:11 pm
LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:09 pm Honest question Falcon. How willing are you to go so far as to 1 for 1?
I'm not sure I understand what you mean
I mean if NAA and you ar eboth lynched are you OK with that even if NAA is Town?

Obviously I believe NAA should be lynched.

If NA is lynched, and he flips town, no I will not be OK with getting mislynched as a punishment. That would be throwing good money after bad

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:19 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:16 pm Basically how reasonably confident are you this can never end in a mischop?

I don't know, I guess I'd say I'm 74% confident he's scum

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:20 pm**

Hm, OK you passed a basic test at the very least.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:26 pm**

Honest opinion. I don’t actually see that as a Mafia slip from NAA.
Falcons response to my pressure isn’t actually terrible and he seems to be at least coming from town even if I don’t think he really is considering any possibly other than NAA as Mafia.

Not really sure about NAA so I think I’m willing to lynch him today mostly since if it does result in a red flip I think Sig is almost always Mafia. If he’s town that at least another player off the list of people who pushed to CFD off of Sabie to PoE from. Not sure if 3 Mafia did CFD that D1, but it is still possible.

Falcon is more closer to a 40/60 Mafia/Town chance imo.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:28 pm**

Frankly not too confident either is Mafia though.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:35 pm**

Are we lynching Wilgy cuz of his nonsense posts? Or is there something I'm missing

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:36 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:35 pm Are we lynching Wilgy cuz of his nonsense posts? Or is there something I'm missing

Partially I think.
I was more doing so initially from Sabie’s posts since Sabie didn’t give a lot of reads and one of their only reads was town reading Wiggly for the pyro posting.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:41 pm**

Wiggly also has been on vanity wagons a lot over Mafia votes.
But really he hasn’t done anything to hint at his alignment, so it’s really anything and was just up there because few people stand out as possible mafia atm.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:44 pm**

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:44 pm**

Well, in my mind then Wilgy would be a better snuper target.

I prefer to lynch people we can gain info from by examining player interactions. I don't feel we have that with Wilgy.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:44 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:44 pm Well, in my mind then Wilgy would be a better sniper target.

I prefer to lynch people we can gain info from by examining player interactions. I don't feel we have that with Wilgy.

Fixed

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:45 pm**

IIRC Pyro fucks up the spy, so if LinearPoint is on me at EoD, we should consider that a scum claim.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:46 pm**

I think Falcon is town, and people are pushing this to be a Thunderdome, that's scummy.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:47 pm**

Specifically LP and Guillo want this to be a Thunderdome and I can't for the life of me understand why. They can't both be mafia.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:47 pm**

I mean, I guess they can?

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:21 pm**

wait NAA is a cop it's not a slip

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:21 pm**

like we're just being obnoxious about the whole thing

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:53 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:21 pm wait NAA is a cop it's not a slip

Why doesn't he just say that then?

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:04 pm**

he's obnoxious

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:38 pm**

I thought I should put things together since I just realized having Blue Engi as mafia likely implies at least one mafia on blue team otherwise they cannot make much use of it. Especially since Sabie went for Dispenser on night one.

Reds:

Medic- Falcon
Soldier- Marmot
Pyro- Wilgy
Sniper- Gavial
Heavy- Mac
Demoman- 1 of Dolby/LC
Scout- Nanook
Engi- MartinGG99
Spy- Dyslexicon

Blues:

Medic- Sig
Soldier- Jack
Pyro- LP
Sniper- TSP
Heavy- Guilo
Demoman- 1 of Dolby/LC
Scout- Seanzie
Engi- Sabie12
Spy- NAA

I couldn't find anything said about LC or Dolby being an RB'er or a certain color other than NAA's list.

So one mafia in Sig/LP/TSP/Guilo/(one of Dobly/LC)/NAA.

I wanna flip NAA in connection to this tbh. If the mafia were on the blue side they may have more incentive than mafia on the red side to try and save Sabie.

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:43 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:53 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:21 pm wait NAA is a cop it's not a slip
Why doesn't he just say that then?

It would expose me about my "unsubmited" actions.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:51 pm**

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:38 pm So one mafia in Sig/LP/TSP/Guilo/(one of Dobly/LC)/NAA.

Looking at D1 votecount though only Dolby (if he's blue), NAA, TSP, are the only currently-living blues to have voted to save sabie.

LP and Guilo voted to not save (i.e. hard-bussed Sabie if they were wolves).

something something reasoning in my head I think that last part implies LP and Guilo town more-so for the vote on Sabie since they were blue and yet did not try to save mafia-blue-engi sabie

Sig voted Guilo & LC voted Jack; both off mainstream wagons.

Therefore, I think in connection in my last post this likely implies at least a wolf in TSP/NAA (And Dolby if he's blue). Less likely though still implied wolf in Sig/LC (if blue). Least likely in between LP/Guilo amongst the blues since they directly voted to kill Sabie.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:52 pm**

Don't forget that Nanook decided to save Sabie, despite himself being Red scout.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:57 pm**

I was also kinda tinfoiling that maybe NAA brought up that list to fish Falcon's color from him.

That feels in-line with this statement from NAA imo

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 3:32 pm Lucky guess. How do you think I know your color?

I can't really relate to making such a statement in any other way. At least not that I can immediately think of.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:17 pm**

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:27 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:24 pm Question is.

Why NAA does not kill Falcon on Night 3, knowing that Falcon is Medic and already prevented a kill, why risk keeping Falcon alive if Mafia?
I'm always ML bait. Keep in mind Marmot is still alive as a tracker who has actually caught scum, so that's odd as well I'd say

There was a failed kill N2, so who knows if it was targeted at me or someone else.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:18 pm**

Did NAA slip in saying falcon's color because he already knew the other medic's color, or is there some other more complicated mech reason it's a slip?

Either way, I'd sheep the read.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:20 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:18 pm Did NAA slip in saying falcon's color because he already knew the other medic's color, or is there some other more complicated mech reason it's a slip?

Either way, I'd sheep the read.

I'd suggest you to read the last two pages if you really care about that answer.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:22 pm**

Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:20 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:18 pm Did NAA slip in saying falcon's color because he already knew the other medic's color, or is there some other more complicated mech reason it's a slip?

Either way, I'd sheep the read.
I'd suggest you to read the last two pages if you really care about that answer.

I tried, but I'm tired and don't understand.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:23 pm**

LinearPoint wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:48 pm Can you stop with the excessive AtE for a bit it just makes you seem worse honestly. Saying that you're always mislynched and that you'll never convince anyone is rather annoying.

Regardless of what alignment Falcon is, i hated the AtE accusation as being excessive, i look at the accusation as being excessive itself and kind of scummy.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:23 pm**

falcon thinks it's possible he prevented a kill because he protected someone (I forget who), and that mafia discovered his color as a result.

I dunno, either way. I don't think NAA makes up a color if he hasn't explicitly known it or inferred it.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:25 pm**

I don't buy that it's a lucky guess is what I'm saying. That just seems like the only possible explanation that could potentially save him from being caught, and it's not a great one.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:26 pm**

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine for now

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:32 pm**

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:22 pm
Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:20 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:18 pm Did NAA slip in saying falcon's color because he already knew the other medic's color, or is there some other more complicated mech reason it's a slip?

Either way, I'd sheep the read.
I'd suggest you to read the last two pages if you really care about that answer.

I tried, but I'm tired and don't understand.

Tough luck, im tired too and lazy.

I want NAA chopped, i dont want NAA advancing any further the game after that day 1 of his, he is either scum for it and if he is not, scum want him advancing for an easy win be ause there is no way we will not be paranoid and judge against him at f3 if reach that point.

Also this

Guillotine wrote: ↑Thu Dec 30, 2021 3:19 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:55 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:53 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:51 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
falcon45ca wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:48 pm
NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm I need to continue voting Guillo unfortunately.
Do you usually vote people you don't think are Maf?
In a game where votes throw off vig shots, yes.

NotAnAxehole wrote: ↑Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:49 pm Context matters
Then it really wouldn't be unfortunate that you voted him, would it?
What
You said it was unfortunate you had to vote Guillo...but in so doing, you thought you were saving him from a Vig shot?

Which would mean it is not unfortunate to vote for him?
This actually a good catch.

NotAnAxehole later replied he acted under the assumption that i was town vigilante and he was sure i’d 100% target him if i was town vigilante.

But i remember NAA replying to Gavial something along the lines of “who believes a Guillo’s vig claim”.

So this is a big contradiction from NAA and his action against could qualify as open wolfing.

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:36 pm**

Perfect scenario for this cycle is:

NAA gets chopped and find out if he is scum saving Sabie or a townie hard wolfsiding.
At night we night vig Wilgy
Scum tries to night kill me and fails.

Then we look into demoralized players but certainly i will be pushing to chop tony if NAA is scum, heck i could even see Tony having tmi on NAA if NAA is town too but let's kill the bull before we skin it shall we?

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:51 pm**

I strongly agree.

This uh... also supports the theory that the entire mafia team decided to blatantly sheep me after catching sabie.

Posted: **Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:52 am**

Oh NAA is now the leading wagon.

I'll join.

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

Posted: **Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:54 am**

Wilgy being on TSP rn is bad though, may block the shot, and I would have appreciated him at least explaining his votes on Mac and TSP.

I don't care to defend NAA tbh

Posted: **Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:07 am**

Happy New Year everyone.

Hopefully your 2022 is better than my 2021 holiday season.

Posted: **Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:59 am**

Guillotine wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:36 pm Perfect scenario for this cycle is:

NAA gets chopped and find out if he is scum saving Sabie or a townie hard wolfsiding.
At night we night vig Wilgy
Scum tries to night kill me and fails.

Then we look into demoralized players but certainly i will be pushing to chop tony if NAA is scum, heck i could even see Tony having tmi on NAA if NAA is town too but let's kill the bull before we skin it shall we?

you're literally killing the vig (unless i'm dumb and forgot who the vig is) you can't vig wilgy after you do that

Posted: **Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:01 am**

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:38 pm I thought I should put things together since I just realized having Blue Engi as mafia likely implies at least one mafia on blue team otherwise they cannot make much use of it. Especially since Sabie went for Dispenser on night one.

Reds:

Medic- Falcon
Soldier- Marmot
Pyro- Wilgy
Sniper- Gavial
Heavy- Mac
Demoman- 1 of Dolby/LC
Scout- Nanook
Engi- MartinGG99
Spy- Dyslexicon

Blues:

Medic- Sig
Soldier- Jack
Pyro- LP
Sniper- TSP
Heavy- Guilo
Demoman- 1 of Dolby/LC
Scout- Seanzie
Engi- Sabie12
Spy- NAA

I couldn't find anything said about LC or Dolby being an RB'er or a certain color other than NAA's list.

So one mafia in Sig/LP/TSP/Guilo/(one of Dobly/LC)/NAA.

I wanna flip NAA in connection to this tbh. If the mafia were on the blue side they may have more incentive than mafia on the red side to try and save Sabie.

[VOTE: NAA] aubergine

this is probabilistically bad logic

The Syndicate

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