Hogwarts Mafia - END

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I would like one raviolus.

[nutella]

I would like one raviolus.

That's raviolo to you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I would like one raviolus.

That's raviolo to you

[Sloonei]

The universe bestows on us a great raviolum.

[MacDougall]

Hey so what if Timmer is lying about being a vig? What does that do to all these floating theories?

FYI we have had a dead mafia literally EVERY night. 3 from 3. Anyone the least bit concerned about this? Especially given our known vig is actually not responsible for either of them?

Now on night 3 one of our dead Mafia is back among the living and just basically wondering around wearing his Death Eater cloak.

Paranoid theory time.

What if they are dying on purpose? We know there is lynch stopping. What if they can be killed to hide them from being lynched and they can be resurrected unless they are lynched?

[karavalenge]

I like how the poll title is "Who is responsible for all this death" and we're picking on the guy who couldn't have done anything cause he was already dead.

[ColinIsCool]

I don’t understand a fucking thing you people are talking about.

[juliets]

Another important factor in all of this is INH's resurrection. Do we think that was an accident, or something the Death Eaters actively conspired toward? If the latter, then they'd be basing their entire strategy for the day around it. The potential for bold and wacky lies would be greater in that case. Speedchuck's claim seems more calculated than Quin's.
If the former, and they were as surprised as the rest of us to see INH back among the living today, then they'd have to improvise their plans for the day. Quin's claim seems like the more improvised of the two.

Juliets claims to have attempted to resurrect Turnip Head last night, but Turnip Head is certifiably not resurrected. Instead we have INH. The presence of [SECRETS] makes it difficult to speculate on what might have happened, but it's unclear from the visible abilities whether or not they could have knowingly redirected a resurrection onto one of their dead partners. It's possible they had a more general redirection which was used on Juliets, and because her ability was targeting a dead player, the pool of potential target changes shifted the dead roster, and INH's name happened to be plucked from there. In any event, what we know is that Juliets' claimed night action did not happen, but that the same action was carried out on a different player who happens to be bad.

All of this is to say that we have a lot of variables and unknowns and this is confusing so it's a good thing we have a confirmed scum to default to today or else we'd all have died of confusion by now. Someone please help.

My belief is that they actively conspired toward it. I think they used a spell that told them the power that Glorf had, maybe night 2, and knew to try and target it night 3 because something I didn't even notice myself is it's an odd night power (which could explain why Glorf didn't use it night 1). I only read the top of my role card and didn't notice that underneath it said it was an odd night power. So I think the mafia knew their chances were good that I would use it at my first opportunity night 3. They may have even thought Glorf would have used it night 3 - he may not have wanted to use it night 1 when there was only one person to choose from to rezz.

Anyway, this is all speculation based on the fact I think they used Imperio on me and probably knew about the Phoenix because they pointed the power to a dead person, INH. But again, I'm just guessing. I don't really understand what you mean by it happening by "accident". Would they have directed to a dead player by accident?

[juliets]

I don’t understand a fucking thing you people are talking about.

lol Colin, I am totally empathetic. I read last night in real time and could barely hang with it.

[juliets]

Hey so what if Timmer is lying about being a vig? What does that do to all these floating theories?

FYI we have had a dead mafia literally EVERY night. 3 from 3. Anyone the least bit concerned about this? Especially given our known vig is actually not responsible for either of them?

Now on night 3 one of our dead Mafia is back among the living and just basically wondering around wearing his Death Eater cloak.

Paranoid theory time.

What if they are dying on purpose? We know there is lynch stopping. What if they can be killed to hide them from being lynched and they can be resurrected unless they are lynched?

Mac, you are so good at these paranoid theories that make us think outside the box. One thing that strikes me is wouldn't that be terribly unbalanced if they could come back as they wish? I'm not a balance oriented person but it seems like that would just be too much.

[juliets]

I already gave my reasoning for diricawl.

I want to die because my continued presence is not a help to the serious players. I assumed someone would kill Speedchuck last night, who I still believe to be Town regardless of a Cop call when there were over 20 spells flung around night 1.

The floo powder today was because I found his information intriguing and believed him. If you think that using floo on a called out scum and then admitting it is a scummy thing to do, you must think I'm extremely dumb.

I'm not, I just stopped caring 60 pages ago.

kara I don't know what you mean by your continued presence is not a help to the serious players. If you are civ your continued presence is CRUCIAL to our game. We need people who will vote and you are also contributing to the thread. I don't think you are extremely dumb. Please don't quit.

[ColinIsCool]

FYI I’m gonna be out of town this weekend so don’t expect a lot from me (assuming I don’t get nightkilled)

[juliets]

TH I see you - I'm so sorry, I tried to bring you back. I was so excited.

[sprityo]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

[juliets]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

sprityo what do you think about the speed vs. Quin debate?

[ColinIsCool]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

But who is bad?

[poutanko]

ColinIsCool - like
DharmaHelper - ok
JaggedJimmyJay - ok to like

Speedchuck 2.0 - don't like (╬￣□￣)
juliets 2.0 - like better than her predecessor
Sloonei - bad with relation to LC, good with relation to INH. He doesn't give a weird vibe

Lunalee - ok to like
MacDougall - not lazier Colin but crazier Colin
nutella - like
Quin - ok

Jackofhearts2005 - forgettable
karavalenge - forgettable
sprityo - ...who? (￣_￣)
timmer - ok

Don't have time to ISO all but that's what I feel. MacD mentioned some scenario with DH being actually LC's buddy sounds too crazy to me. I like DH's logic there but if Speed is scum I'll put those who try to discredit me/make Sloonei as 2nd wagon-move it from Speed more attention as sus, DH included. The other being Kara and Timmer. You ningen better to apologize to me after his flip

[poutanko]

Also, Speed - Quin my brain can't catch up. If anyone can make a graph that explain it easier that would be helpful

[karavalenge]

I already gave my reasoning for diricawl.

I want to die because my continued presence is not a help to the serious players. I assumed someone would kill Speedchuck last night, who I still believe to be Town regardless of a Cop call when there were over 20 spells flung around night 1.

The floo powder today was because I found his information intriguing and believed him. If you think that using floo on a called out scum and then admitting it is a scummy thing to do, you must think I'm extremely dumb.

I'm not, I just stopped caring 60 pages ago.

kara I don't know what you mean by your continued presence is not a help to the serious players. If you are civ your continued presence is CRUCIAL to our game. We need people who will vote and you are also contributing to the thread. I don't think you are extremely dumb. Please don't quit.

I'm not gonna quit, I'd just prefer to trade my life over another Town's.

[sprityo]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

sprityo what do you think about the speed vs. Quin debate?

That’s a debate? I didn’t recognize that was a thing

[sprityo]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

But who is bad?

Want you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true

And the one after it where I tell juliets how that post was ignored like redheaded stepchild

[juliets]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

sprityo what do you think about the speed vs. Quin debate?

That’s a debate? I didn’t recognize that was a thing

Yes, they are both swearing by their night actions but it's almost impossible for both of them to be right. Each is calling the other a liar. It appears that one of them is bad.

[juliets]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

But who is bad?

Want you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true

And the one after it where I tell juliets how that post was ignored like redheaded stepchild

sprityo, I went back and looked at that post but the only person you have listed as bad that I can see is speed. Is there anyone else? We are mostly dealing with a pool of candidates now that we think are bad. Who is that pool for you?

[sprityo]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

But who is bad?

Want you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true

And the one after it where I tell juliets how that post was ignored like redheaded stepchild

sprityo, I went back and looked at that post but the only person you have listed as bad that I can see is speed. Is there anyone else? We are mostly dealing with a pool of candidates now that we think are bad. Who is that pool for you?

I don’t have a pool

[juliets]

DH and Mac town v Town. Because their entire arguement wasted time and accomplished close to nothing.

But who is bad?

Want you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true

And the one after it where I tell juliets how that post was ignored like redheaded stepchild

sprityo, I went back and looked at that post but the only person you have listed as bad that I can see is speed. Is there anyone else? We are mostly dealing with a pool of candidates now that we think are bad. Who is that pool for you?

I don’t have a pool

ok so does that mean speed is your only suspicion?

[juliets]

For everyone:

Has anyone given any thought to 'why Epi' for the kill?

[sprityo]

Yeah pretty much

[ColinIsCool]

For everyone:

Has anyone given any thought to 'why Epi' for the kill?

Assuming the scum did it, Epi is a good target, for kills or other actions. If it wasn’t purely kill motivated maybe they learned his spells and he had good ones. It does kind of feel like scum are trying to outsmart docs to an extent though with some of the kills.

[juliets]

Yeah pretty much

Ok I'm asking you all these questions because it's extremely important that you give us some thoughts of where you stand on things. Right now you are sorted into the POE mostly because you haven't participated much and we don't know where you stand on whose good or bad or any other thing going on in the thread. I know you really didn't want to play this game but now that you're here why not share some thoughts?

[juliets]

For everyone:

Has anyone given any thought to 'why Epi' for the kill?

Assuming the scum did it, Epi is a good target, for kills or other actions. If it wasn’t purely kill motivated maybe they learned his spells and he had good ones. It does kind of feel like scum are trying to outsmart docs to an extent though with some of the kills.

Yeah it just is odd to me that they picked him over some others who will remain nameless. But there have been several kills that don't make a lot of sense. I'm going to check out what he was saying before he died - maybe they didn't like it.

[sprityo]

Yeah pretty much

Ok I'm asking you all these questions because it's extremely important that you give us some thoughts of where you stand on things. Right now you are sorted into the POE mostly because you haven't participated much and we don't know where you stand on whose good or bad or any other thing going on in the thread. I know you really didn't want to play this game but now that you're here why not share some thoughts?

That’s the thing Juliets I don’t have many thoughts

Why do I need to participate when there’s perfectly capable people who can? It’s not like megaman where I needed to step up to the plate. Jay and Mac and DH are all strong enough.

If I wanted to start anywhere it would be confirming them as good or bad, but that in itself is a monumental task

Mafia are playing hard mode keeping all three alive. Is there a reason for that?

[juliets]

Yeah pretty much

Ok I'm asking you all these questions because it's extremely important that you give us some thoughts of where you stand on things. Right now you are sorted into the POE mostly because you haven't participated much and we don't know where you stand on whose good or bad or any other thing going on in the thread. I know you really didn't want to play this game but now that you're here why not share some thoughts?

That’s the thing Juliets I don’t have many thoughts

Why do I need to participate when there’s perfectly capable people who can? It’s not like megaman where I needed to step up to the plate. Jay and Mac and DH are all strong enough.

If I wanted to start anywhere it would be confirming them as good or bad, but that in itself is a monumental task

Mafia are playing hard mode keeping all three alive. Is there a reason for that?

We need you to participate if you're civ because Jay, Mac and DH don't know everything. Their reads could be wrong - I've seen it happen. Or, pertinent to your question, maybe one of them is a deep wolf. The more heads we put together the better our results will be. Your question is a good one and relates to my "Why Epi" question.

[ColinIsCool]

Someone should aggregate together everybody’s POE from people who have offered them by # of inclusions. Someone who isn’t me.

[speedchuck]

The two somewhat answerable questions I have coming out of my look at the claims are: 1) What does scum Quin gain by lying about using a patronus on me and timmer?
2) Is there any possible scenario where both speedchuck and Quin are telling the truth?

The unanswerable question is whether or not scum knew INH was coming back.

2:
Scenario where literally everyone has Diricawls because DDL wants us to suffer

Actually if LC used a diricawl on Timmer then I would have ended up at Timmer and Quin would have ended up at LC.

So that one is impossible too.

[sprityo]

what? Jay and Mac and DH DONT know everything? First I’ve heard of this statement

[speedchuck]

Why do you think he didn't?

Night actions. Timmer didn't visit Long Con last night.

This is correct. I assumed that any attempt at using my vig would be tampered with, so I used a different item to avoid having an obvious killshot redirected.

god damn it timmer you wasted my patronus

And then along comes Quin's patronus claim. Looking at it in sequence, this claim seems to have the least going for it, but it also seems like the least sensible lie in the bunch. If Quin is scum and lying here, I see no advantage gained here. Sure he can sow confusion, but in doing so he paints a giant target on his back. The urgency of his questions leading up to this also seem to suggest that he was sitting on some sort of information himself.

There lies the problem.

WHY would Quin claim this at all? Town, scum, doesn't matter. What even is this?

And it's in a precarious situation. Quin may have assumed I had a tracker and not a watcher, but... in this setup, I don't know why he'd do that. It was a risky claim that accomplished nothing.

I would believe it if it made any sense at all, if it was even possible for it to make sense with what I know. But it doesn't.

[speedchuck]

Also, Speed - Quin my brain can't catch up. If anyone can make a graph that explain it easier that would be helpful

Speed ---Watched---> Long Con, saw Quin and ???
Quin ---Patronused---> Himself, Timmer, Sloonei

Patronus means Quin could not be redirected. Any other options regarding speed getting redirected are nigh impossible.

THEREFORE: Speed saw Quin somewhere. Quin said he was not there.

One of these claims is a lie. (It's Quin's)

All of the other discussion has been "Why would Quin lie?" and "Are there any other possibilities?"
Possibilities have been mostly debunked. The "Why" is still unanswered.

[speedchuck]

That's as simple as I could make it. Charts wouldn't help. I tried to make one yesterday.

[speedchuck]

Here are the only ways Speed and Quin are both being truthful. Don't look unless you like mechanics talk, which I love dearly.

Spoiler: show

1. Mafia tried to redirect Kara to Sloonei or to Timmer. That redirect hit me instead. (This, of course, depends on whether Imperio has priority over Diricawl or not. Could be that Kara was made to target Sloonei or Timmer with a Diricawl, and the Imperius would have to hit me directly. This is probably not worth asking about, as I consider it unlikely, but go for it if you want to.)
Also Imperio MIGHT have been used to redirect Juliet's Rez, therefore not being able to hit me. (But can you redirect to dead players?)

2. Quin used a patronus on Timmer/Sloonei AND visited Long Con as well. This would require Quin to have a dark arts ability to use on the side. Go figure why he would do all that. Scum anyway, in that case.

3. Mafia has some kind of "piercing redirect" secret. They redirected Sloonei to Long Con because IDK why.

4. Mafia has some kind of "Passive redirect" secret. They redirected all Timmer's visitors to Long Con because IDK why.

5. More dark arts secret randomness I guess.

TL;DR Quin is either still bad or the mafia is playing nonsensically with secret abilities.

[juliets]

I read through Epi's posts. There are not that many of them if you want to look. Epi's last prime suspect was Luna but his last vote was for Colin. I asked him why and he said he would tell us when he got some rest but then he got killed. He had some others he thought were bad, I can reprint his last list if you like. I just don't know that a hard Luna suspicion and/or a hard Colin suspicion would have drawn a kill. But there had to be some reason why they killed him - he wasn't supatowning.

[nutella]

Hey so what if Timmer is lying about being a vig? What does that do to all these floating theories?

FYI we have had a dead mafia literally EVERY night. 3 from 3. Anyone the least bit concerned about this? Especially given our known vig is actually not responsible for either of them?

Now on night 3 one of our dead Mafia is back among the living and just basically wondering around wearing his Death Eater cloak.

Paranoid theory time.

What if they are dying on purpose? We know there is lynch stopping. What if they can be killed to hide them from being lynched and they can be resurrected unless they are lynched?

Dude keep in mind that hippogriffs exist. I think those can explain at least some of the dead baddies.

[nutella]

Another important factor in all of this is INH's resurrection. Do we think that was an accident, or something the Death Eaters actively conspired toward? If the latter, then they'd be basing their entire strategy for the day around it. The potential for bold and wacky lies would be greater in that case. Speedchuck's claim seems more calculated than Quin's.
If the former, and they were as surprised as the rest of us to see INH back among the living today, then they'd have to improvise their plans for the day. Quin's claim seems like the more improvised of the two.

Juliets claims to have attempted to resurrect Turnip Head last night, but Turnip Head is certifiably not resurrected. Instead we have INH. The presence of [SECRETS] makes it difficult to speculate on what might have happened, but it's unclear from the visible abilities whether or not they could have knowingly redirected a resurrection onto one of their dead partners. It's possible they had a more general redirection which was used on Juliets, and because her ability was targeting a dead player, the pool of potential target changes shifted the dead roster, and INH's name happened to be plucked from there. In any event, what we know is that Juliets' claimed night action did not happen, but that the same action was carried out on a different player who happens to be bad.

All of this is to say that we have a lot of variables and unknowns and this is confusing so it's a good thing we have a confirmed scum to default to today or else we'd all have died of confusion by now. Someone please help.

My belief is that they actively conspired toward it. I think they used a spell that told them the power that Glorf had, maybe night 2, and knew to try and target it night 3 because something I didn't even notice myself is it's an odd night power (which could explain why Glorf didn't use it night 1). I only read the top of my role card and didn't notice that underneath it said it was an odd night power. So I think the mafia knew their chances were good that I would use it at my first opportunity night 3. They may have even thought Glorf would have used it night 3 - he may not have wanted to use it night 1 when there was only one person to choose from to rezz.

Anyway, this is all speculation based on the fact I think they used Imperio on me and probably knew about the Phoenix because they pointed the power to a dead person, INH. But again, I'm just guessing. I don't really understand what you mean by it happening by "accident". Would they have directed to a dead player by accident?

Wait... Are you saying the rezz is not a one shot??

[nutella]

Oh right creatures are not one shot powers. Wild.

[juliets]

Another important factor in all of this is INH's resurrection. Do we think that was an accident, or something the Death Eaters actively conspired toward? If the latter, then they'd be basing their entire strategy for the day around it. The potential for bold and wacky lies would be greater in that case. Speedchuck's claim seems more calculated than Quin's.
If the former, and they were as surprised as the rest of us to see INH back among the living today, then they'd have to improvise their plans for the day. Quin's claim seems like the more improvised of the two.

Juliets claims to have attempted to resurrect Turnip Head last night, but Turnip Head is certifiably not resurrected. Instead we have INH. The presence of [SECRETS] makes it difficult to speculate on what might have happened, but it's unclear from the visible abilities whether or not they could have knowingly redirected a resurrection onto one of their dead partners. It's possible they had a more general redirection which was used on Juliets, and because her ability was targeting a dead player, the pool of potential target changes shifted the dead roster, and INH's name happened to be plucked from there. In any event, what we know is that Juliets' claimed night action did not happen, but that the same action was carried out on a different player who happens to be bad.

All of this is to say that we have a lot of variables and unknowns and this is confusing so it's a good thing we have a confirmed scum to default to today or else we'd all have died of confusion by now. Someone please help.

My belief is that they actively conspired toward it. I think they used a spell that told them the power that Glorf had, maybe night 2, and knew to try and target it night 3 because something I didn't even notice myself is it's an odd night power (which could explain why Glorf didn't use it night 1). I only read the top of my role card and didn't notice that underneath it said it was an odd night power. So I think the mafia knew their chances were good that I would use it at my first opportunity night 3. They may have even thought Glorf would have used it night 3 - he may not have wanted to use it night 1 when there was only one person to choose from to rezz.

Anyway, this is all speculation based on the fact I think they used Imperio on me and probably knew about the Phoenix because they pointed the power to a dead person, INH. But again, I'm just guessing. I don't really understand what you mean by it happening by "accident". Would they have directed to a dead player by accident?

Wait... Are you saying the rezz is not a one shot??

No I did not mean to imply that. It was a 1 shot.

[nutella]

FYI I’m gonna be out of town this weekend so don’t expect a lot from me (assuming I don’t get nightkilled)

DDL said the whole weekend would be the night phase so you prob won't miss the next day phase

[Lunalee]

Oh right creatures are not one shot powers. Wild.

Creatures are all one shots. But there are restrictions on the night (even or odd) you can use it.

[Lunalee]

I read through Epi's posts. There are not that many of them if you want to look. Epi's last prime suspect was Luna but his last vote was for Colin. I asked him why and he said he would tell us when he got some rest but then he got killed. He had some others he thought were bad, I can reprint his last list if you like. I just don't know that a hard Luna suspicion and/or a hard Colin suspicion would have drawn a kill. But there had to be some reason why they killed him - he wasn't supatowning.

Maybe he was killed because of his low activity? Which players usually kill off inactives as mafia?

[juliets]

I read through Epi's posts. There are not that many of them if you want to look. Epi's last prime suspect was Luna but his last vote was for Colin. I asked him why and he said he would tell us when he got some rest but then he got killed. He had some others he thought were bad, I can reprint his last list if you like. I just don't know that a hard Luna suspicion and/or a hard Colin suspicion would have drawn a kill. But there had to be some reason why they killed him - he wasn't supatowning.

Maybe he was killed because of his low activity? Which players usually kill off inactives as mafia?

I don't have any idea Luna. I'm doubtful he was killed for inactivity though. Everyone knew he could not read the pages at school so he couldn't keep up with the posting frequency of some others. Plus, he's a well respected player with good insights regardless of his frequency.

[nutella]

Oh ok it is a one shot. And so are hippogriffs, lol

[nutella]

Oh right creatures are not one shot powers. Wild.

Creatures are all one shots. But there are restrictions on the night (even or odd) you can use it.

No, only Phoenix, hippogriff and thunderbird are one shot.