Re: Hogwarts Mafia - Day 4
Posted: Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:51 am
I would like one raviolus.
That's raviolo to you
My belief is that they actively conspired toward it. I think they used a spell that told them the power that Glorf had, maybe night 2, and knew to try and target it night 3 because something I didn't even notice myself is it's an odd night power (which could explain why Glorf didn't use it night 1). I only read the top of my role card and didn't notice that underneath it said it was an odd night power. So I think the mafia knew their chances were good that I would use it at my first opportunity night 3. They may have even thought Glorf would have used it night 3 - he may not have wanted to use it night 1 when there was only one person to choose from to rezz.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:08 am
Another important factor in all of this is INH's resurrection. Do we think that was an accident, or something the Death Eaters actively conspired toward? If the latter, then they'd be basing their entire strategy for the day around it. The potential for bold and wacky lies would be greater in that case. Speedchuck's claim seems more calculated than Quin's.
If the former, and they were as surprised as the rest of us to see INH back among the living today, then they'd have to improvise their plans for the day. Quin's claim seems like the more improvised of the two.
Juliets claims to have attempted to resurrect Turnip Head last night, but Turnip Head is certifiably not resurrected. Instead we have INH. The presence of [SECRETS] makes it difficult to speculate on what might have happened, but it's unclear from the visible abilities whether or not they could have knowingly redirected a resurrection onto one of their dead partners. It's possible they had a more general redirection which was used on Juliets, and because her ability was targeting a dead player, the pool of potential target changes shifted the dead roster, and INH's name happened to be plucked from there. In any event, what we know is that Juliets' claimed night action did not happen, but that the same action was carried out on a different player who happens to be bad.
All of this is to say that we have a lot of variables and unknowns and this is confusing so it's a good thing we have a confirmed scum to default to today or else we'd all have died of confusion by now. Someone please help.
lol Colin, I am totally empathetic. I read last night in real time and could barely hang with it.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:36 am I don’t understand a fucking thing you people are talking about.
Mac, you are so good at these paranoid theories that make us think outside the box. One thing that strikes me is wouldn't that be terribly unbalanced if they could come back as they wish? I'm not a balance oriented person but it seems like that would just be too much.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:29 am Hey so what if Timmer is lying about being a vig? What does that do to all these floating theories?
FYI we have had a dead mafia literally EVERY night. 3 from 3. Anyone the least bit concerned about this? Especially given our known vig is actually not responsible for either of them?
Now on night 3 one of our dead Mafia is back among the living and just basically wondering around wearing his Death Eater cloak.
Paranoid theory time.
What if they are dying on purpose? We know there is lynch stopping. What if they can be killed to hide them from being lynched and they can be resurrected unless they are lynched?
kara I don't know what you mean by your continued presence is not a help to the serious players. If you are civ your continued presence is CRUCIAL to our game. We need people who will vote and you are also contributing to the thread. I don't think you are extremely dumb. Please don't quit.karavalenge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:39 am I already gave my reasoning for diricawl.
I want to die because my continued presence is not a help to the serious players. I assumed someone would kill Speedchuck last night, who I still believe to be Town regardless of a Cop call when there were over 20 spells flung around night 1.
The floo powder today was because I found his information intriguing and believed him. If you think that using floo on a called out scum and then admitting it is a scummy thing to do, you must think I'm extremely dumb.
I'm not, I just stopped caring 60 pages ago.
I'm not gonna quit, I'd just prefer to trade my life over another Town's.juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:49 amkara I don't know what you mean by your continued presence is not a help to the serious players. If you are civ your continued presence is CRUCIAL to our game. We need people who will vote and you are also contributing to the thread. I don't think you are extremely dumb. Please don't quit.karavalenge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:39 am I already gave my reasoning for diricawl.
I want to die because my continued presence is not a help to the serious players. I assumed someone would kill Speedchuck last night, who I still believe to be Town regardless of a Cop call when there were over 20 spells flung around night 1.
The floo powder today was because I found his information intriguing and believed him. If you think that using floo on a called out scum and then admitting it is a scummy thing to do, you must think I'm extremely dumb.
I'm not, I just stopped caring 60 pages ago.
Want you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true
sprityo, I went back and looked at that post but the only person you have listed as bad that I can see is speed. Is there anyone else? We are mostly dealing with a pool of candidates now that we think are bad. Who is that pool for you?sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:44 amWant you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true
And the one after it where I tell juliets how that post was ignored like redheaded stepchild
I don’t have a pooljuliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:58 amsprityo, I went back and looked at that post but the only person you have listed as bad that I can see is speed. Is there anyone else? We are mostly dealing with a pool of candidates now that we think are bad. Who is that pool for you?sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:44 amWant you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true
And the one after it where I tell juliets how that post was ignored like redheaded stepchild
ok so does that mean speed is your only suspicion?sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:59 amI don’t have a pooljuliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:58 amsprityo, I went back and looked at that post but the only person you have listed as bad that I can see is speed. Is there anyone else? We are mostly dealing with a pool of candidates now that we think are bad. Who is that pool for you?sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:44 amWant you to check my iso and look about 3 posts above this one. The one where I say Speedchuck is mafia if DH’s theory of one mafia per house holds true
And the one after it where I tell juliets how that post was ignored like redheaded stepchild
Assuming the scum did it, Epi is a good target, for kills or other actions. If it wasn’t purely kill motivated maybe they learned his spells and he had good ones. It does kind of feel like scum are trying to outsmart docs to an extent though with some of the kills.
Ok I'm asking you all these questions because it's extremely important that you give us some thoughts of where you stand on things. Right now you are sorted into the POE mostly because you haven't participated much and we don't know where you stand on whose good or bad or any other thing going on in the thread. I know you really didn't want to play this game but now that you're here why not share some thoughts?
Yeah it just is odd to me that they picked him over some others who will remain nameless. But there have been several kills that don't make a lot of sense. I'm going to check out what he was saying before he died - maybe they didn't like it.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:13 amAssuming the scum did it, Epi is a good target, for kills or other actions. If it wasn’t purely kill motivated maybe they learned his spells and he had good ones. It does kind of feel like scum are trying to outsmart docs to an extent though with some of the kills.
That’s the thing Julietsjuliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:15 amOk I'm asking you all these questions because it's extremely important that you give us some thoughts of where you stand on things. Right now you are sorted into the POE mostly because you haven't participated much and we don't know where you stand on whose good or bad or any other thing going on in the thread. I know you really didn't want to play this game but now that you're here why not share some thoughts?
We need you to participate if you're civ because Jay, Mac and DH don't know everything. Their reads could be wrong - I've seen it happen. Or, pertinent to your question, maybe one of them is a deep wolf. The more heads we put together the better our results will be. Your question is a good one and relates to my "Why Epi" question.sprityo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:21 amThat’s the thing Julietsjuliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:15 amOk I'm asking you all these questions because it's extremely important that you give us some thoughts of where you stand on things. Right now you are sorted into the POE mostly because you haven't participated much and we don't know where you stand on whose good or bad or any other thing going on in the thread. I know you really didn't want to play this game but now that you're here why not share some thoughts?I don’t have many thoughts
Why do I need to participate when there’s perfectly capable people who can? It’s not like megaman where I needed to step up to the plate. Jay and Mac and DH are all strong enough.
If I wanted to start anywhere it would be confirming them as good or bad, but that in itself is a monumental task
Mafia are playing hard mode keeping all three alive. Is there a reason for that?
Actually if LC used a diricawl on Timmer then I would have ended up at Timmer and Quin would have ended up at LC.karavalenge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:18 am2:Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:16 am The two somewhat answerable questions I have coming out of my look at the claims are: 1) What does scum Quin gain by lying about using a patronus on me and timmer?
2) Is there any possible scenario where both speedchuck and Quin are telling the truth?
The unanswerable question is whether or not scum knew INH was coming back.
Scenario where literally everyone has Diricawls because DDL wants us to suffer
There lies the problem.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:08 amAnd then along comes Quin's patronus claim. Looking at it in sequence, this claim seems to have the least going for it, but it also seems like the least sensible lie in the bunch. If Quin is scum and lying here, I see no advantage gained here. Sure he can sow confusion, but in doing so he paints a giant target on his back. The urgency of his questions leading up to this also seem to suggest that he was sitting on some sort of information himself.Quin wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:26 pmgod damn it timmer you wasted my patronustimmer wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:25 pmThis is correct. I assumed that any attempt at using my vig would be tampered with, so I used a different item to avoid having an obvious killshot redirected.
Speed ---Watched---> Long Con, saw Quin and ???
Dude keep in mind that hippogriffs exist. I think those can explain at least some of the dead baddies.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:29 am Hey so what if Timmer is lying about being a vig? What does that do to all these floating theories?
FYI we have had a dead mafia literally EVERY night. 3 from 3. Anyone the least bit concerned about this? Especially given our known vig is actually not responsible for either of them?
Now on night 3 one of our dead Mafia is back among the living and just basically wondering around wearing his Death Eater cloak.
Paranoid theory time.
What if they are dying on purpose? We know there is lynch stopping. What if they can be killed to hide them from being lynched and they can be resurrected unless they are lynched?
Wait... Are you saying the rezz is not a one shot??juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:41 amMy belief is that they actively conspired toward it. I think they used a spell that told them the power that Glorf had, maybe night 2, and knew to try and target it night 3 because something I didn't even notice myself is it's an odd night power (which could explain why Glorf didn't use it night 1). I only read the top of my role card and didn't notice that underneath it said it was an odd night power. So I think the mafia knew their chances were good that I would use it at my first opportunity night 3. They may have even thought Glorf would have used it night 3 - he may not have wanted to use it night 1 when there was only one person to choose from to rezz.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:08 am
Another important factor in all of this is INH's resurrection. Do we think that was an accident, or something the Death Eaters actively conspired toward? If the latter, then they'd be basing their entire strategy for the day around it. The potential for bold and wacky lies would be greater in that case. Speedchuck's claim seems more calculated than Quin's.
If the former, and they were as surprised as the rest of us to see INH back among the living today, then they'd have to improvise their plans for the day. Quin's claim seems like the more improvised of the two.
Juliets claims to have attempted to resurrect Turnip Head last night, but Turnip Head is certifiably not resurrected. Instead we have INH. The presence of [SECRETS] makes it difficult to speculate on what might have happened, but it's unclear from the visible abilities whether or not they could have knowingly redirected a resurrection onto one of their dead partners. It's possible they had a more general redirection which was used on Juliets, and because her ability was targeting a dead player, the pool of potential target changes shifted the dead roster, and INH's name happened to be plucked from there. In any event, what we know is that Juliets' claimed night action did not happen, but that the same action was carried out on a different player who happens to be bad.
All of this is to say that we have a lot of variables and unknowns and this is confusing so it's a good thing we have a confirmed scum to default to today or else we'd all have died of confusion by now. Someone please help.
Anyway, this is all speculation based on the fact I think they used Imperio on me and probably knew about the Phoenix because they pointed the power to a dead person, INH. But again, I'm just guessing. I don't really understand what you mean by it happening by "accident". Would they have directed to a dead player by accident?
No I did not mean to imply that. It was a 1 shot.nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:43 pmWait... Are you saying the rezz is not a one shot??juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:41 amMy belief is that they actively conspired toward it. I think they used a spell that told them the power that Glorf had, maybe night 2, and knew to try and target it night 3 because something I didn't even notice myself is it's an odd night power (which could explain why Glorf didn't use it night 1). I only read the top of my role card and didn't notice that underneath it said it was an odd night power. So I think the mafia knew their chances were good that I would use it at my first opportunity night 3. They may have even thought Glorf would have used it night 3 - he may not have wanted to use it night 1 when there was only one person to choose from to rezz.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:08 am
Another important factor in all of this is INH's resurrection. Do we think that was an accident, or something the Death Eaters actively conspired toward? If the latter, then they'd be basing their entire strategy for the day around it. The potential for bold and wacky lies would be greater in that case. Speedchuck's claim seems more calculated than Quin's.
If the former, and they were as surprised as the rest of us to see INH back among the living today, then they'd have to improvise their plans for the day. Quin's claim seems like the more improvised of the two.
Juliets claims to have attempted to resurrect Turnip Head last night, but Turnip Head is certifiably not resurrected. Instead we have INH. The presence of [SECRETS] makes it difficult to speculate on what might have happened, but it's unclear from the visible abilities whether or not they could have knowingly redirected a resurrection onto one of their dead partners. It's possible they had a more general redirection which was used on Juliets, and because her ability was targeting a dead player, the pool of potential target changes shifted the dead roster, and INH's name happened to be plucked from there. In any event, what we know is that Juliets' claimed night action did not happen, but that the same action was carried out on a different player who happens to be bad.
All of this is to say that we have a lot of variables and unknowns and this is confusing so it's a good thing we have a confirmed scum to default to today or else we'd all have died of confusion by now. Someone please help.
Anyway, this is all speculation based on the fact I think they used Imperio on me and probably knew about the Phoenix because they pointed the power to a dead person, INH. But again, I'm just guessing. I don't really understand what you mean by it happening by "accident". Would they have directed to a dead player by accident?![]()
DDL said the whole weekend would be the night phase so you prob won't miss the next day phaseColinIsCool wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:49 am FYI I’m gonna be out of town this weekend so don’t expect a lot from me (assuming I don’t get nightkilled)
Maybe he was killed because of his low activity? Which players usually kill off inactives as mafia?juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:40 pm I read through Epi's posts. There are not that many of them if you want to look. Epi's last prime suspect was Luna but his last vote was for Colin. I asked him why and he said he would tell us when he got some rest but then he got killed. He had some others he thought were bad, I can reprint his last list if you like. I just don't know that a hard Luna suspicion and/or a hard Colin suspicion would have drawn a kill. But there had to be some reason why they killed him - he wasn't supatowning.
I don't have any idea Luna. I'm doubtful he was killed for inactivity though. Everyone knew he could not read the pages at school so he couldn't keep up with the posting frequency of some others. Plus, he's a well respected player with good insights regardless of his frequency.Lunalee wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:47 pmMaybe he was killed because of his low activity? Which players usually kill off inactives as mafia?juliets wrote: ↑Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:40 pm I read through Epi's posts. There are not that many of them if you want to look. Epi's last prime suspect was Luna but his last vote was for Colin. I asked him why and he said he would tell us when he got some rest but then he got killed. He had some others he thought were bad, I can reprint his last list if you like. I just don't know that a hard Luna suspicion and/or a hard Colin suspicion would have drawn a kill. But there had to be some reason why they killed him - he wasn't supatowning.