Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]

[Vulgard]

It's possible our approaches are the same approach from different perspectives...?

[Vulgard]

I really don't like the Ash wagon existing, by the way. Why does it exist?

[Vulgard]

Tutuu had pretty much the same PoE most of us do, except she townread TSP.
I do agree she was probably killed because she slipped as PR, so that probably doesn't matter much.
And I don't think we have to be concerned about people like Hally not dying when we didn't really have a concrete PoE or direction last EoD. We yeeted a 2-poster because we had no idea where else to go. That doesn't make the mafia feel threatened.

[Vulgard]

Our duty right now is to avenge the tutuu. Tutuuru!

I don't know what I'm doing. I should go to sleep.

[Ash Lael]

No I understand what you’re saying. It’s about the energy and approach. You felt like he was trying to hard to be lol random and funny. I felt like he was flat and lifeless.

It’s just that these two perceptions don’t go together.

...I don't know why, but I feel like I have deja vu. Like I've seen this exact post from you somewhere in the past and responded to it.
This makes no sense.

Why do you find him lifeless? It's possible you find him lifeless because he isn't solving. Or maybe because his memes lack... energy? I don't read too much into memes, usually.

I... actually don’t anymore. Day 1 I did. Today he feels basically normal.

(This is one of the other Tony thoughts I was having that I don’t like)

Day 1 did feel stark (heh) to me in the sense that all the Taylor Swift stuff from early SF1 stuck out to me and showed this kind of unfettered, happy-buzzed Tony that got a kick out of being weird at people, and I just didn’t see that sort of energy or mindset here.

But that’s not meshing with the way other people are seeing his game and now I’m feeling like maybe that was a bad reason.

[Vulgard]

I think I get what you're saying, and I think it's also valid. I just didn't approach his posts that way, but I see how you reached that conclusion. I don't think it's wrong.

[Vulgard]

"His posts made me laugh in semis and they don't make me laugh here" shouldn't be a viable read. :<

[Vulgard]

I feel like people asked me questions when I wasn't in the thread and that I've failed to answer all of them. Please ask them again if you still find them relevant; I'm not dodging them on purpose.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

No seriously, why is tony a thing again?

tell us who else to kill and why please

How the fuck is this an answer to my question

Is it a “throw the hands up cause I have nothing better” or is there an actual reason you’re pushing TSP again

i don’t have an answer

who should we kill instead?

What are you saying, that you’re voting TSP for no reason at all

Is that what we’re saying here?

yup

K

Cool

Why is it so hard to just say “I have no idea” to begin with

[Vulgard]

Tinfoil for much later into the game: the weird argument Poison and Michelle were having overnight could in theory be orchestrated w/w.

[Hally]

No seriously, why is tony a thing again?

tell us who else to kill and why please

How the fuck is this an answer to my question

Is it a “throw the hands up cause I have nothing better” or is there an actual reason you’re pushing TSP again

i don’t have an answer

who should we kill instead?

What are you saying, that you’re voting TSP for no reason at all

Is that what we’re saying here?

yup

K

Cool

Why is it so hard to just say “I have no idea” to begin with

is it not clear already that i have no idea

[Hally]

Tinfoil for much later into the game: the weird argument Poison and Michelle were having overnight could in theory be orchestrated w/w.

nah. michelle is not that kind of scum player

[TonyStarkPrime]

"His posts made me laugh in semis and they don't make me laugh here" shouldn't be a viable read. :<

I'm heartbroken

[TonyStarkPrime]

wait you said shouldn't

[TonyStarkPrime]

I really am lacking in reading comprehension

[TonyStarkPrime]

Off wagon: Epi, michelle, 112
On TSP: Poison, Vul, Ted, Ash, LC
On TH: Arete, Nanook, Hally, TSP, tutuu, DrWilgy

are there the wolves?

no its bastard actually. everyone is town

please tell me something serious about this

[TonyStarkPrime]

Okay, so instead of going to sleep, I decided to write the case NOW. Awesome.

The first few things in TSP’s ISO:
- A mafia claim
- Memes
- Random comments.

I interpret this as “trying too hard to be funny as you arrive in the thread.” I actually dislike the fact he didn’t come in with a solving mindset, considering he came in late and already had content to work with. It felt like he had no intention to solve to begin with.

After that, he randomly gives me a locktown “read,” because I apparently wrote some very towny posts. I would put quotes here, but you can’t multiquote while ISOing here and jumping to every single post to multiquote it would take me forever. So, nope. Sorry, you’re not getting that, you’ll have to read it yourself.

I also question the townread on me. Not only because I found it premature, but also because it was really random. It felt like TSP wanted to at least have one read, so he settled on an “easy townread.” Unlike 112, who came in guns blazing and attacking two people who were not really considered scummy, TSP walked in with memes, tossed a random easy townread and offered commentary that didn’t mean anything. It feels too jokey to come from town. No solving mindset, only meme mindset, and even though I know for a fact that TSP is indeed a memer, I don’t think it would be amped up to 11 so early if he had a green rolecard.

He later provides more takes; 112 “chainsawing” but no alignment read. Wilgy town based on a single post. (Consider how bad this looks now. Now that he is in PoE with Wilgy, he is ready to push Wilgy and actively gunning for that.) Dunya “don’t like this,” but apparently no alignment read (I’m assuming an implied wolfread). It feels like he’s more than ready to give out townreads without explanation, but when it comes to things he DOES NOT LIKE, he does not call people “mafia.” Just says he “does not like” certain things. It’s probably a stupid read, but I think it says something about his approach to the game. Maybe he knows the people he called town are town, and the people he called mafia are either not mafia or they are his partners. Maybe.

He then provides more memelike takes. Post #1481 about dunya gives me really bad vibes, because it feels like it was written about a partner. And even if it was not written about a partner, it has this certain part which really, REALLY looks like TMI on me and Arete both being town. Ash pointed it out early, I agreed with it, and I agree with it even more now that I return to this post once again. Post #1481 is one post you really have to read, I think you’ll draw a similar conclusion. The addition of “TR on LC. Spicy.” And “I’ll move my vote for now.” Both feel forced as well.

#1484 This feels like a post intended to throw confusing ideas into the mix to break us apart. The way I understand it is that he claims to think I’m… unconventional? And I’m assuming he thinks I’m town… and he’s saying that I found 112’s partner with one of my accusations, and 112 is chainsawing me for that reason…? That feels like one hell of a sneaky preflip right there, 112 + one person I’d accused before. And it doesn’t even look like TSP actually believes what he’s saying. He even throws Tutuu, who flipped town, as “potential scum who could bolster this association.” Not his own words, but that is essentially what he says. TSP is seeking to create preflip associations here, possibly leading to chainlynches on town.

#1485 Feels like a whiteknight on Arete, which is weird for me to say because I also think Arete’s town.

#1488 Reacts to three votes on Michelle in rapid succession with a “wtf.” I think this is slightly forced. I don’t think a townie says nothing but a “wtf” here. A few people spoke up in the thread after he said the wtf, and they said more things than he did. Like Ash, myself, and Hally. By comparison, this looks negligent, not very believable. Bad. At least in my opinion.

#1492 Continues to shade tutuu. You could say “if he went out of his way to shade tutuu, why does his mafia team make the kill?” And my answer is “it doesn’t matter.” These posts were still written relatively early into the day. Mafia can’t always afford to kill exactly who they “townread” in the thread, they have to make alterations sometimes. Heck, maybe one of them picked up on tutuu’s PRing later than expected and they needed a change of plans. Hard to say.

He then memes more, but that is expected from TSP. I don’t mind it here. I REALLY minded it early in his ISO when it felt really out of place.

#1498 At least he directly says that both his mafia reads are hedges, and he even generated this weird dunya-related preflip earlier.

#1718 I’m… not sure where the read changed. I’m reading the ISO carefully and I don’t see the change. Could be him being fickle. In a vacuum, this is actually towny.

He says that Ash is “too logical” and wonders if it is towny. It feels like indirect shade once again. I don’t think he actually cares about having this question answered. He doesn’t attempt to push Ash, either.

#1762 and #1763 baffle me once more. He now declares that tutuu is town, because she had an answer to his question that he had not been expecting. Okay… And then, he immediately pivots to suspecting Hally for no apparent reason, as if Hally were somewhat associated with tutuu. It looks like TSP is basing his reads on some weird internal preflips, potentially opportunistic ones.

Hally seems equally baffled by this, because they question TSP about it immediately. His explanation in #1768 doesn’t actually answer Hally’s question, and instead, it creates a group of worlds concerning tutuu I don’t exactly understand. If I were to guess at what this means, it looks like TSP is giving himself an out in case his read turns out to be wrong, by saying that he can be wrong and that there is a theoretical world where tutuu is mafia. But in essence, he just dodges Hally’s question.

His explanation there is really bizarre. He says that Hally attempted to deny the clear on tutuu (based on tutuu’s play differing from her scumgame), and since lying is antitown, that makes Hally potential mafia. He then says that voting for Wilgy is wrong, thus defending the scummier of the two slankers while simultaneously getting out of Hally’s questioning as quickly as he can.

He then hedges his read on Hally in #1781. Again, when he is suspicious of someone, he just hedges. There is no confidence or even a direct alignment read. Just call people mafia. You are allowed to be wrong. I’ve called Ash mafia before, now he’s a part of my towncore.

At this point, I’m like…. What if TSP being difficult to understand and hedging left and right makes him town? Maybe there’s just no agenda and he has no idea how to play the game?

But then I remember his weird preflippy posts, and the fact he seems to avoid people’s questions, and the fact that his reads seem to be completely RNG. I can’t follow his process at all. If he’s town, he is making it INCREDIBLY HARD to find him town. Like, let’s take his later posts into account.

He locktowns LC for one post. …Okay.

Denies the clear on Poison that I attempted.

Says that he does not want to vote for Wilgy because he always reads Wilgy scum when Wilgy is town and vice versa. …Okay. I am still waiting for literally any scumreads instead of hedges and random commentary about posts he considers “bad.” The most scumhunting I have seen from him was when he generated worlds with preflips. Which is a big no.

He has not tried to build a towncore, nor has he attempted to cooperate with people. His solving process is largely invisible, and he jumps from target to target with no rhyme or reason. If there is any solving in there, I simply don’t see it. It feels much more like he is just doing whatever.

He lock cleared Arete first, but in #2036 he is entertaining an Arete PoE for… reasons. He then apparently starts to re-evaluate Arete by pointing out what he found scummy about them. He then says that Dunya and Tutuu are always same alignment… Again, for no reason. For all we know, he could be partners with Dunya and trying to clear her based on absolutely nothing.

Has a scumread on Poison, but it is not explained. The first time it appears is when he denies my townclear on her. The second time is when he just randomly calls her mafia in post #2139. He put her in PoE on his readlist before, but wanted to give her a day. Again, I have no idea how he reached this conclusion.

In #2156, says that TH’s post was “the scummiest post in the game,” laying groundwork for TH’s later misyeet. I know that he was ultimately forced to self-pres, but I think that this post of his must have given the wagon some traction indirectly. It is also, again, VERY RANDOM. He had just put TH in his nullreads, but now, all of a sudden, he is like “this is very mafia” based on two posts. It’s like he sensed an opportunity or something. I don’t actually have a good explanation for this one. He could still be the ficklest town I have ever seen, reading people completely at random and with a solving process so invisible I cannot see it anywhere. But what I’m reading here feels much more like opportunistic, “haha I’m random” mafia.

#2177 He has four mafia reads at this point: 112, Michelle, Wilgy, Ash. Yet he had just called TH’s post “the scummiest post in the game.” His reasons for suspecting these people are bizarre and frankly should not justify his reads there. I’m not sure if this is just weird town, or mafia who genuinely doesn’t have good answers at this point, I don’t know. He just hedges. So. Much. On everything. I don’t remember him being like this in Champs.

I am currently going back to Champs to read his town games there. And what I see is that he is much solvier from the very beginning. He still memes, but he is actually trying to solve and I can see that. Sure, he hedges sometimes, and he builds worlds, but it all comes across as much more genuine to me than what he is doing here. Here, it feels much more like a completely random string of changing his mind and pushing whoever happens to be pushable.

I cannot see a genuine solving process in TSP’s ISO here, throughout the entirety of day 1, at any point whatsoever. And I have seen it within so many people’s posts. But not his.

When he gets pushed toward the end of day 1, he shades several people on his wagon, including Ash and Arete, who I both read town. He memes about it at first, but then starts giving actual reasons why these people are potentially mafia for pushing on him. All of sudden, now that he is being voted by them, he provides actual reasons to suspect them. They are not very strong, but they are still… reasons. Why then, instead of doing it instantly? He did not even TRY to get them yeeted before he was pushed, really. He just posted random comments without pointing the finger directly.

To his credit, he then says that killing TH is stupid, but it has to be done, because nobody can agree on anyone else and because EoD is fast approaching. That is a sentiment I’ve agreed with before. But it still feels weird. I’m not sure about the “most scummy post of the game” post if TSP had never actually actively scumread TH. Then why did he post that?

#2532 is like “I will self-pres, TH will flip town and you will look stupid.” The post does not actually say most of that, but that is how I interpret it mindset-wise. I suppose it’s not alignment indicative…

#2579 brags about his postcount. Well, since his posts are reads which look random, hedgy scumreads, and memes, I don’t think there’s anything to brag about, but that’s another thing and I’m not trying to be rude here.

He then shades Poison for voting him as well. I’m starting to suspect antispew here. All he’s doing is shading his wagon and complaining about self-pressing on a 2-poster, both of which tell us nothing about the game if he flips red. They are the types of posts you would write if you were mafia in danger of getting yeeted, which… he was, if he is mafia.

And finally, #2642. The post we all think is towny. I think so too. But I don’t think it’s clearing.

In summary, the crux of my scumread on TSP is that I don’t see a solving process in his posts. What I see is a string of memes, potentially opportunistic reads, weird preflips that only create confusion and unnecessary associations… and when he was in real danger of dying, he also generated some posts which looked suspiciously like antispew.

And that is not what I saw in his Champs games, where he was town both times and where I could see that he was genuinely solving. His semifinal comes to mind. You can chalk it up to “he is not trying too hard here,” but I think it goes beyond that. It’s not him not trying. It’s him not feeling an obligation to solve, so he just does random stuff and calls it a day. Because he is mafia.

I think I should be able to tell that he is here to solve the game. But I can’t say that he is. And I’ve read his entire day 1 ISO. I’m ignoring the posts written during the night and during day 2, because I think reading his day 1 is enough to reach this conclusion. I’m pretty sure TSP is just mafia, and while his ISO does contain some towny aspects, there are also much fewer towny aspects in comparison to most other players in this game. Which is yet another reason why he should definitely be a prime yet contender for today.

If someone is willing to convince me that TSP is town here, then please do that. But right now, I think he’s just mafia who isn’t trying to solve the game and who’s pretending that he’s doing something -- through memes, worldbuilding, and random read switches, which do not really hold up under close scrutiny (like Hally briefly did in that one moment, which also showcased TSP trying to dodge and avoid their questions).

I’m already voting TSP. I invite you to the wagon. We have free space.

towny tbh

also

you think I was solving in semis???

[Hally]

Off wagon: Epi, michelle, 112
On TSP: Poison, Vul, Ted, Ash, LC
On TH: Arete, Nanook, Hally, TSP, tutuu, DrWilgy

are there the wolves?

no its bastard actually. everyone is town

please tell me something serious about this

i have no idea

[TonyStarkPrime]

Off wagon: Epi, michelle, 112
On TSP: Poison, Vul, Ted, Ash, LC
On TH: Arete, Nanook, Hally, TSP, tutuu, DrWilgy

are there the wolves?

no its bastard actually. everyone is town

please tell me something serious about this

i have no idea

please tell me something non-serious about this

[TonyStarkPrime]

I'm willing to believe that this vca solves the game

[Ash Lael]

I'm willing to believe that this vca solves the game

My current gun-to-head team is you/LC/Michelle. Which is 1/1/1. So that works.

[Ash Lael]

If I exist in town Tony world, then I'm probably looking at LC/Michelle/Wilgy

[Vulgard]

Yes, I do think tsp was solving in semis. Or at least tried to.
Connect 4 should've been nominated for funniest moment of 2020 on MU, it was great.

[Ash Lael]

Of the voters on Tony's wagon, I feel very confident in Vulgard and Poison, and slightly-less-confident-but-still-pretty-darn-confident in Ted. So if there's a wolf there I feel like it kinda has to be LC.

[TonyStarkPrime]

in sf1 tsp pushed for chopping the low poster on day 1

[Hally]

Off wagon: Epi, michelle, 112
On TSP: Poison, Vul, Ted, Ash, LC
On TH: Arete, Nanook, Hally, TSP, tutuu, DrWilgy

are there the wolves?

no its bastard actually. everyone is town

please tell me something serious about this

i have no idea

please tell me something non-serious about this

it has pretty colors

[Vulgard]

in sf1 tsp pushed for chopping the low poster on day 1

Why is TSP not really pushing for chopping anyone in Escape From Russia?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Off wagon: Epi, michelle, 112
On TSP: Poison, Vul, Ted, Ash, LC
On TH: Arete, Nanook, Hally, TSP, tutuu, DrWilgy

are there the wolves?

no its bastard actually. everyone is town

please tell me something serious about this

i have no idea

please tell me something non-serious about this

it has pretty colors

even ash said something about the vca and usually all ash says is "tsp wolf"

[Hally]

im like... not really a vca person

[TonyStarkPrime]

well yes hally but you're currently a "everyone is town including the person with 16 posts who fits on every team" person and I'm trying to expand your horizons

[TonyStarkPrime]

in sf1 tsp pushed for chopping the low poster on day 1

Why is TSP not really pushing for chopping anyone in Escape From Russia?

Currently more interested in staying alive

[Hally]

i think my horizons need to be narrowed not expanded personally

[TonyStarkPrime]

But okay /fair enough/

[Vulgard]

Did TSP genuinely level up his meme game, making it funnier to make me second-guess myself?
This makes no sense but I have this thought.

[TonyStarkPrime]

TSP has been accused of not pushing anyone, so TSP presents the preceding singular vote count as evidence:

The only viable mafia team based on assuming reasonable day 1 vote counts is exactly michelle / ash / wilgy.

Any of these three are acceptable chops.

"oh look he said the words is this player salad"
no

[TonyStarkPrime]

The only viable mafia team based on assuming reasonable day 1 vote counts is exactly michelle / ash / wilgy.

(that fulfills my prior assumption "LC/epi town")

[Vulgard]

I think I'll go to sleep and let you talk.

[Long Con]

Of the voters on Tony's wagon, I feel very confident in Vulgard and Poison, and slightly-less-confident-but-still-pretty-darn-confident in Ted. So if there's a wolf there I feel like it kinda has to be LC.

Wrong, friend.

[Long Con]

If I'm the wolf on the Tony vote, what was the deal with the timing and nature of my vote? Just chalk it up to general Long Con zaniness?

[TonyStarkPrime]

Yes, I do think tsp was solving in semis. Or at least tried to.
Connect 4 should've been nominated for funniest moment of 2020 on MU, it was great.

you can nominate it :P

[Ash Lael]

If I'm the wolf on the Tony vote, what was the deal with the timing and nature of my vote? Just chalk it up to general Long Con zaniness?

Wait until the last second to see which way it's going.

He's not going over? Jump on to distance.

He might go over? Jump on TH and yell "No ties!"

[Hally]

The only viable mafia team based on assuming reasonable day 1 vote counts is exactly michelle / ash / wilgy.

(that fulfills my prior assumption "LC/epi town")

but ash/michelle are never aligned

[TonyStarkPrime]

I don't know if LC really counts on the tsp wagon but if he was it's because maybe there were two off wagon voters?

from ash's pov though the tsp wagon can be clean

[TonyStarkPrime]

The only viable mafia team based on assuming reasonable day 1 vote counts is exactly michelle / ash / wilgy.

(that fulfills my prior assumption "LC/epi town")

but ash/michelle are never aligned

why is this now

[TonyStarkPrime]

ah yes

[Ash Lael]

If I'm the wolf on the Tony vote, what was the deal with the timing and nature of my vote? Just chalk it up to general Long Con zaniness?

Or in town tony world, it literally doesn't matter and you just did it cause why not.

[Long Con]

If I'm the wolf on the Tony vote, what was the deal with the timing and nature of my vote? Just chalk it up to general Long Con zaniness?

Wait until the last second to see which way it's going.

He's not going over? Jump on to distance.

He might go over? Jump on TH and yell "No ties!"

Or just do nothing and leave my vote on someone else , and just miss it.

[Hally]

The only viable mafia team based on assuming reasonable day 1 vote counts is exactly michelle / ash / wilgy.

(that fulfills my prior assumption "LC/epi town")

but ash/michelle are never aligned

why is this now

because michelle wouldn’t be pushing ash all game if teamed

[Hally]

and ash wouldn’t be pushing her

[Long Con]

I guess you can make anything fit a narrative if you want to.