The Syndicate

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:45 am I voted Wilgy.

Not super happy with the fact that JJJ suggested Wilgs, but knowing scum-aligned JJJ, I could see him suggesting the lynch of a couple of low posters with one being scum and one town. He's done it before.

This makes sense. I am going on that train because, as others have agreed, I think Jay's reasons for suspecting Marmot are nonsense. Jay, if you are civ and you really think marmot is bad, you need to come up with some better reasons by tomorrow if you want to convince me.

Just saw marmots vote on longcon, even tho he was cleared as civ by glorfindel

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:23 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:45 am I voted Wilgy.

Not super happy with the fact that JJJ suggested Wilgs, but knowing scum-aligned JJJ, I could see him suggesting the lynch of a couple of low posters with one being scum and one town. He's done it before.

This makes sense. I am going on that train because, as others have agreed, I think Jay's reasons for suspecting Marmot are nonsense. Jay, if you are civ and you really think marmot is bad, you need to come up with some better reasons by tomorrow if you want to convince me.

Disagreeing with case -- sure, okay

Critical thinking beyond case -- F-minus

I switched to NVN because I'm not Wilgying the Marmot train if that's the way he's going to be.

The only think NVN has done in the last three days of this game was campaign for lynching Nutella over Simon. He has not posted here even while posting elsewhere on the site.

At the very least, he warrants some questioning.

Also I was thinking about it during lunch and I think I know what JJJ is trying to do. Surprised I didn't see it before.

I'm going to consider him town-aligned for the duration of this day-phase, at the very least.

I want [mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] and [mention]novaselinenever[/mention] to weigh in on the Marmot case. I maintain that I'm not in total agreement with JJJ, as his case requires getting into Marmot's head for some nonsensical action, but my counter-case is also built on the same foundation. And in the spur of the moment, mafia motive would make at least as much sense as town motive.

JJJ's Marmot case has some assumptions, but it's not completely broken. And it has more substance to discuss than the Wilgy case does. Substanced lynches in possible LYLO are a good thing.

Marmot also has other content to consider, and his vote is currently on LC in possible LYLO, so... to paraphrase JoH, if Wilgy Marmot is town, I'd be pretty irate.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:06 pmlinki: Kylemii, what is JJJ doing? I looked at your posts and I don't get it.

well.... I actually don't know what Jay is talking about. He doesn't seem to be doing anything confusing beyond trying to get Marmot lynched. Like you, I believe that jay is third party. I also believe that there are certain points in this game where he shouldn't be trusted but I don't think we've come to that point yet, though we may be close.

2 things are consistent across Jay's gameplay regardless of alignment. Jay is calculating, and Jay is victory oriented. Assuming Jay is Kano, Jay has 2 win conditions that have to be accomplished, one, up to 3 more general civ deaths, and the deaths of Jax and Sonya Blade. I might be wrong about this but if the theory that we're 1 lynch away from lylo is correct then the last thing Kano!Jay would want is for us to mislynch rn, with the possible exception that Jay thinks Marmot is Sonya Blade or Jack, which seems unlikely to me given his indie hints. If we mislynch 2 civs in a row the game ends and Jay can't win. We also know that at the very least that Jax is alive. Basically... the longer the game goes on the more likely Jay is to achieve his win condition, and right now supporting civilian interests is probably the most efficient way to do that.

As for the reason why I think Marmot is bad.... His hints contradict his treatment of Jay, and I don't believe them. I don't believe that both Jay and Marmot are loners and I think the fake one is Marmot. If we assume that neither is a civ fake-claiming indie for some reason, then we have to assume that one of them is mafia. Jay's push for a marmot lynch happened much earlier than marmot's push for a Jay lynch, which would be suicide for Jay if Marmot were actually telling the truth, since he'd flip with Jay's apparent role and Jay'd die almost immediately after. Also, when Marmot 's case for wanting to lynch Jay (or "destroy" Jay) still relies on Jay being an indie role. He claims Jay is an untrustworthy indie, instead of claiming that Jay was actually lying about being an indie in the first place which would seem to be the first drawn conclusion, were marmot really telling the truth.

That's just my 2 cents though. We don't have to lynch marmot today but I'm like 85% sure he's mafia.

[mention]Kylemii[/mention]
You basically stated what I realized 2 posts ago.

If you are 85% sure Marmot is scum, why are you so lax about whether we lynch him today or not?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:37 pm I switched to NVN because I'm not Wilgying the Marmot train if that's the way he's going to be.

I don't know what this means.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:21 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:37 pm I switched to NVN because I'm not Wilgying the Marmot train if that's the way he's going to be.

I don't know what this means.

I think it's in reference to Marmot's LC vote.

Really, Marmot? Why in the hell would you place a vote on LC? If you are civ, you can't add this zany behavior to the silly accusations against you. You aren't helping yourself. Things like this make me reconsider defending you (even though I still think Jay's case is nonsense).

I am fine with voting either Lap, NVM, or wilgy at this point. I would say Jay as well, but apparently Kyle (whom I trust, obviously) and chuck seem to think he is doing some kind of civ thing even though I have no idea what they are talking about. My vote is on wilgy now but if the majority would like to take a stab at NVM instead, I am fine with moving. Him or wilgy makes no difference to me.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:18 pm @Kylemii
You basically stated what I realized 2 posts ago.

If you are 85% sure Marmot is scum, why are you so lax about whether we lynch him today or not?

I think we have a few other really good lynch candidates today, and if people don't see what I see in marmot then I'm fine with voting for someone else if no one else sees it.

I'm fairly certain a Marmot lynch will get us a positive result, but dividing our votes might only lead us to ruin.

Kano win if 10 town die and Sonya dies (maybe has happened?) and Jax dies (Has not happened). Kano does not have win condition.

If game is won by scum this phase, Kano not win. If civs lynch scum today, game continues. Kano might get Jax killed, might get win condition. Then Kano be happy.

But until get win condition, Kano must make game continue. Kano must keep town from losing and ending game.

So Kano help town for now.

^ Jay's mindset RN maybe

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:48 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:18 pm @Kylemii
You basically stated what I realized 2 posts ago.

If you are 85% sure Marmot is scum, why are you so lax about whether we lynch him today or not?

I think we have a few other really good lynch candidates today, and if people don't see what I see in marmot then I'm fine with voting for someone else if no one else sees it.

I'm fairly certain a Marmot lynch will get us a positive result, but dividing our votes might only lead us to ruin.

Who are the other "really good lynch candidates"?

Wilgy is okay. NVN is a little better than okay.

Who is 'really good'?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:54 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:48 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:18 pm @Kylemii
You basically stated what I realized 2 posts ago.

If you are 85% sure Marmot is scum, why are you so lax about whether we lynch him today or not?

I think we have a few other really good lynch candidates today, and if people don't see what I see in marmot then I'm fine with voting for someone else if no one else sees it.

I'm fairly certain a Marmot lynch will get us a positive result, but dividing our votes might only lead us to ruin.

Who are the other "really good lynch candidates"?

Wilgy is okay. NVN is a little better than okay.

Who is 'really good'?

I was thinking of those two and Elohcin. You're right. Marmot is actually a much better lynch. I still think it's important to keep discussion going though, the game doesn't end by lynching marmot.

<-----definitely confused by what kyle and chuck are talking about.

[mention]Elohcin[/mention] Which part?

Discussing suspects other than Marmot? Pretty straightforward.

Or discussing theoretical JJJ motives? JJJ hasn't accomplished his wincon yet, and as he pointed out, we're close to LYLO. The only way to keep the game going so that Kano/JJJ has a chance to win is to lynch scum.

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:03 pm <-----definitely confused by what kyle and chuck are talking about.

hey wait yeah me too. i thought speedchuck was against lynching marmot and now suddenly he's voting marmot too and telling me that i should be voting marmot harder than i am.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:12 pm

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:03 pm <-----definitely confused by what kyle and chuck are talking about.

hey wait yeah me too. i thought speedchuck was against lynching marmot and now suddenly he's voting marmot too and telling me that i should be voting marmot harder than i am.

Check out post #4057. My turnabout on Jay + Marmot's current actions have me wanting to reconsider.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:11 pm @Elohcin Which part?

Discussing suspects other than Marmot? Pretty straightforward.

Or discussing theoretical JJJ motives? JJJ hasn't accomplished his wincon yet, and as he pointed out, we're close to LYLO. The only way to keep the game going so that Kano/JJJ has a chance to win is to lynch scum.

the second. So...this makes y'all think Jay is civ and that he seriously thinks marmot is bad? But why not have a more convincing case on him then?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:12 pm

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:03 pm <-----definitely confused by what kyle and chuck are talking about.

hey wait yeah me too. i thought speedchuck was against lynching marmot and now suddenly he's voting marmot too and telling me that i should be voting marmot harder than i am.

well....even though Jay's case on marmot is unconvincing, Marmot is not really doing himself any favors with his lack of defense and vote on LC. I think his frustration with Jay is authentic. But he could at least try and not give up. Does a baddie try or does a baddie give up?

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:22 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:11 pm @Elohcin Which part?

Discussing suspects other than Marmot? Pretty straightforward.

Or discussing theoretical JJJ motives? JJJ hasn't accomplished his wincon yet, and as he pointed out, we're close to LYLO. The only way to keep the game going so that Kano/JJJ has a chance to win is to lynch scum.

the second. So...this makes y'all think Jay is civ and that he seriously thinks marmot is bad? But why not have a more convincing case on him then?

No, I think Jay is 3P and that he seriously thinks Marmot is bad.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:27 pm

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:22 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:11 pm @Elohcin Which part?

Discussing suspects other than Marmot? Pretty straightforward.

Or discussing theoretical JJJ motives? JJJ hasn't accomplished his wincon yet, and as he pointed out, we're close to LYLO. The only way to keep the game going so that Kano/JJJ has a chance to win is to lynch scum.

the second. So...this makes y'all think Jay is civ and that he seriously thinks marmot is bad? But why not have a more convincing case on him then?

No, I think Jay is 3P and that he seriously thinks Marmot is bad.

this^ chances are that Jay's a lonely boy who's interests align with us right now, because of some math which I'm certain Jay has already figured out for himself.

the most important distinction between Jay and a regular civ is that if we start winning by a landslide somehow and jay doesn't have confirmation of Jax and Sonya Blade deaths then it will suddenly be in Jay's best interest to push mis-lynches to meet his quota. We're pretty far from having to worry about that yet though.

Voting DrWilgy to save my skin.

I have too many other things to do, so I doubt I'll have anything else to say the rest of the day. But I urge players to expand their search. There's 4 mafia left. I am not one of them.

Good luck fellow civilians!

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:01 pm Voting DrWilgy to save my skin.

I have too many other things to do, so I doubt I'll have anything else to say the rest of the day. But I urge players to expand their search. There's 4 mafia left. I am not one of them.

Good luck fellow civilians!

Ok thx am voting drwilgy

[mention]speedchuck[/mention]

I don't think the Marmot case is rock solid....but I like the players voting Marmot better than the ones voting Wilgy.

Maybe we actually have two baddie trains this time. Still need to ISO Marmot.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:01 pm Voting DrWilgy to save my skin.

I have too many other things to do, so I doubt I'll have anything else to say the rest of the day. But I urge players to expand their search. There's 4 mafia left. I am not one of them.

Good luck fellow civilians!

Didn't you claim neutral?

*Change vote Marmot*

Lynch all liars is way easier than ISOs.

Egh. Okay.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:43 pm Lynch all liars is way easier than ISOs.

I've never liked Lynch All Liars. It doesn't allow for town gambits. Ergo, I don't like you using this shortcut.

But maybe it's more of a cultural thing. It's not like you have a mafia motive for switching to this lynch train. Regardless of Marmot's alignment, you're within your rights to leave Wilgy.

I think.

Did Marmot say he was making a town gambit?

He didn't seem to be that into a Jay lynch until he claimed neutral.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:34 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:27 pm

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:22 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:11 pm @Elohcin Which part?

Discussing suspects other than Marmot? Pretty straightforward.

Or discussing theoretical JJJ motives? JJJ hasn't accomplished his wincon yet, and as he pointed out, we're close to LYLO. The only way to keep the game going so that Kano/JJJ has a chance to win is to lynch scum.

the second. So...this makes y'all think Jay is civ and that he seriously thinks marmot is bad? But why not have a more convincing case on him then?

No, I think Jay is 3P and that he seriously thinks Marmot is bad.

this^ chances are that Jay's a lonely boy who's interests align with us right now, because of some math which I'm certain Jay has already figured out for himself.

the most important distinction between Jay and a regular civ is that if we start winning by a landslide somehow and jay doesn't have confirmation of Jax and Sonya Blade deaths then it will suddenly be in Jay's best interest to push mis-lynches to meet his quota. We're pretty far from having to worry about that yet though.

Thanks for the explanation, guys. I understand now. So we keep Jay around until he becomes a threat to civs.

Another question...What is Lynch All Liars?

If Lynch All Liars was common practice, I wouldn't survive a single game.

I think we're headed in the right direction now.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:00 pm If Lynch All Liars was common practice, I wouldn't survive a single game.

Admits to being a habitual liar.

I think we're headed in the right direction now.

[mention]Elohcin[/mention]

The idea is that bad guys lie and good guys don't so if you catch someone claiming to be neutral and then claiming to be town, they are likely bad and should be lynched.

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:58 pmThanks for the explanation, guys. I understand now. So we keep Jay around until he becomes a threat to civs.

exactly.

kano's path towards victory requires pushing back the endgame so he gets more time for the correct deaths to have occurred. rn the team closest to victory is the mafia, so jay needs to prevent that from happening.

on the flip side, the more successful mafia lynches happen in a row, the less incentive kano has to cooperate with us

on the other other hand, jay has made himself a public figure, so every move he makes is going to be scrutinized, and since survival is another part of his win condition he has even more incentive to be good.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:34 pm on the flip side, the more successful mafia lynches happen in a row, the less incentive kano has to cooperate with us

Not really.

A successful mafia lynch, unless it includes a vote manipulator (we already got one of them), doesn't move the bar. 1 scum dies, losing their vote. 1 nightkill probably happens, losing town one vote. Status quo stays the same.

Kano has ALL the incentive to cooperate until we either get down to 1 scum or his targets all die. And if we get down to 1 scum and Kano's targets are not dead, he's screwed.

So yeah. Kano, now that the game is guaranteed to kill 10 townies, is pro-town until he has his win-condition.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:32 pm @Elohcin

The idea is that bad guys lie and good guys don't so if you catch someone claiming to be neutral and then claiming to be town, they are likely bad and should be lynched.

How does one claim to be neutral....like...independent?

[mention]Elohcin[/mention], what about DrWilgy do you find suspicious?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:58 pm @Elohcin, what about DrWilgy do you find suspicious?

lack of play...same as NVM. I have stated why I find Lap suspicious. And I have stated that I find marmot's lack of defense and vote for LC suspicious, despite your silly allegations. I have been mulling over here for a bit now...thinking of switching to marmot. I think I will....only reason I would stay on wilgy is to prove a point that I think the reasons you chose to go after marmot are nonsense

Ha, I just notices there is no M in that name. But that's what I thought I remembered y'all shortening it to. I shall just call him NV

[mention]Marmot[/mention] about an hour left

hello am here, who wants me to change vote tbh idk who I should vote for

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:03 pm <-----definitely confused by what kyle and chuck are talking about.

This is me for the entire game

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:16 pm hello am here, who wants me to change vote tbh idk who I should vote for

follow your heart, my friend.

Or follow your nose.