Aight gl everyone. Fingers crossed I was wrong to panic lmao
I'll feel silly either way but it is what it is
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 4]
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:52 pm
by Arete
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:45 pm
what are your general feelings about the gamestate, arete? do you feel like we're in a good position? are you worried about anything? what's dya gonna flip?
I think Dya is going to flip scum
so on that basis I'm feeling pretty okay about the gamestate
I think we're in a generally good position, there's a bunch of people who are pretty clearable so we can probably just solve by PoE even if we're not 100 percent confident in who the last wolf is
but I am worried a bit about the second-wolf-if-Dya-is-scum (or if they're not but some of this only applies if they are) the easy answer is Syn but Chloe had some villagery moments that make me less confident there and I don't think c4 is a wolf with Dya, which does make me worried that there might be a wolf deeper than the consensus-immediate-PoE
also I'm worried that everyone is going to not want to play with me anymore but that's going to happen regardless of what happens today
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:45 pm
what are your general feelings about the gamestate, arete? do you feel like we're in a good position? are you worried about anything? what's dya gonna flip?
I think Dya is going to flip scum
so on that basis I'm feeling pretty okay about the gamestate
I think we're in a generally good position, there's a bunch of people who are pretty clearable so we can probably just solve by PoE even if we're not 100 percent confident in who the last wolf is
but I am worried a bit about the second-wolf-if-Dya-is-scum (or if they're not but some of this only applies if they are) the easy answer is Syn but Chloe had some villagery moments that make me less confident there and I don't think c4 is a wolf with Dya, which does make me worried that there might be a wolf deeper than the consensus-immediate-PoE
also I'm worried that everyone is going to not want to play with me anymore but that's going to happen regardless of what happens today
ftr i think that youve played perfectly fine in this game regardless of your alignment, and i always look forward to being in the same game as you. bad godreads happen sometimes and you've been insightful and helpful beyond that. i have been similarly worrying that i've been wolfsiding with all of my reads but at the end of the day it's just a silly internet game and there's no need to stress
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 4]
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:54 pm
by outed wolf
What's that thought SPF
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 4]
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:56 pm
by staypositivefriend
outed wolf wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:54 pm
What's that thought SPF
Day 4 has ended. dyachei has been eliminated. They were the student that showed up for half of syllabus day and two of three exams, failed, and tanked the instructor evaluation.
Night 4 is underway. You have 24 hours to get any actions to me.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 4]
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:01 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Unit 4
1. Suppose the following pair of choices:
A. You may win $300 with a probability of 40%, otherwise losing $100 with a probability of 60%.
B. You may win $500 with a probability of 25%, otherwise losing $50 with a probability of 75%.
C. You may win $600 with a probability of 40%, otherwise losing $200 with a probability of 60%.
D. You may win $1,000 with a probability of 25%, otherwise losing $100 with a probability of 75%.
Suppose a person is presented with the first set of options and chooses (A). What would expected utility theory predict he or she would choose among the second set of options?
2. Is expected utility theory normative or descriptive?
3. Is prospect theory normative or descriptive?
4. Suppose you are playing in a Mafia game and aligned with the town. A player you have never previously played with or spectated suggests it would be "-EV" to vote for their pet town read otherwise contained within a general/consensus process of elimination pool because, per their claims, "they're really good at making reads". Suppose you believe this player to be aligned with the town. Is it wise to trust this player's grasp of probability and expected value? Please justify.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [NIGHT 4]
Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:13 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [NIGHT 4]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:00 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Night 4 has ended.
Amy has been killed. She was the overachieving student who replies to quiz questions on Discord by uploading an external Word document.
Day 5 is underway. You have 48 hours to place your votes.*
*I will open the option to shorten day phases to 24 hours from this point forward. You may NOT discuss this in the game thread in any capacity. PM me here or on Discord with your preference: 24 or 48 hours. I will only change the cycles if it is unanimous and every single player provides an answer. I will need answers from everyone within the next 8 hours (by 2:00 AM EDT) or no change will occur.
Also I updated post caps and some seem weird. It's possible but not certain I boned the math in a previous phase. If so forgive me. Nobody's in trouble. I might be fine anyway.
@Arete @bronana @c4e5g3d5 @Dyslexicon @Marluxion @nutella @outed wolf @staypositivefriend @Syn
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:01 pm
by outed wolf
Yeah I'm fucking stupid, sorry fellas. I panicked when there was zero need to do so.
My apologies.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:02 pm
by outed wolf
[VOTE:
syn] aubergine
Let's get this over with.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:02 pm
by c4e5g3d5
Rule of wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
For reasons that many of you know, and reasons that some of you don't have the choice not to know, I'm gonna be busy soon and probably won't have much more time for this game. Figured why not squeeze out the last reserve of effort I had buried deep within me for this game?
It's proooobably Syn, but if it's not, I'll only find out on Monday, aka. D-Day. Who does everyone else want me to look at first? It seems like everyone has their own pet tinfoil at this point, so I'm expecting lots of answers.
Oh and I guess I'll ISO the wolves.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:02 pm
by c4e5g3d5
[VOTE:
Syn] aubergine
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:03 pm
by Arete
[VOTE:
Syn] aubergine
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:04 pm
by nutella
[VOTE:
syn] aubergine
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:05 pm
by Arete
I skimmed Dyachei's Iso overnight and the only reservation I can come up with for Synslot being Mafia is 'would that slot and the dead wolves really have shielded each other that hard if that slot is a wolf'
whereas I have actually good reasons to townread everyone else (and some reason to think that slot is specifically Mafia -- Chloe's handling of EoD2 is pretty bad in light of Dya's flip)
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:08 pm
by bronana
8v1 mountainous, puts hair on your chest
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:09 pm
by Dyslexicon
[VOTE:
Nutella] aubergine
I’m not like other mafia players.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:11 pm
by Arete
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:09 pm[VOTE:
Nutella] aubergine
I’m not like other mafia players.
I thought the way Dya was treating her was emblematic of a wolf appealing to a villager
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:11 pm
by c4e5g3d5
That KZA ISO really took it out of me
nut read probably TMI
spf read definitely TMI
And that's it.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:11 pm
by Syn
lol
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:12 pm
by nutella
Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:09 pm[VOTE:
Nutella] aubergine
I’m not like other mafia players.
well, you're wrong
i encourage you to reread my posts and particularly how i addressed dya throughout the game
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:12 pm
by nutella
and how they treated me too
they pretty clearly had tmi on me
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:20 pm
by bronana
a thrilling day of ww awaits
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:21 pm
by Dyslexicon
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:12 pm
and how they treated me too
they pretty clearly had tmi on me
I will look into it.
I’m not convinced it’s Syn though.
I haven’t done much thorough reading, but my feeling is that it isn’t Syn.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:21 pm
by Dyslexicon
But maybe it is /shrug
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:24 pm
by nutella
i have some fear of it not being syn, yeah
i think my poe in that scenario would be arete/bronana/spf
but none of those feel like mafia
i dont see c4 or visor paired with dya here
marl is just town
and i highly doubt it's you dizzy
so hopefully it just is syn and we dab
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:32 pm
by c4e5g3d5
nutella wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:24 pm
i have some fear of it not being syn, yeah
i think my poe in that scenario would be arete/bronana/spf
This is one of the most compelling arguments for it being Syn that I've seen.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:38 pm
by Syn
it's not zack
you can trust me, I was right about my last confident read
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:43 pm
by nutella
lol
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:47 pm
by staypositivefriend
sup
i wont be here much for the first ~24 hours or so of today. i am ~hoping~ that the last wolf is just syn but i've been burned too many times by seemingly easy answers that i intend to look into dyachei's spew and create a contingency plan in a world where syn ends up being town
seeing dya flip red after being suspicious of them and frequently doubting myself for nearly two real life weeks was a very satisfying experience
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:50 pm
by outed wolf
It's a bittersweet one for me lol
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:56 pm
by c4e5g3d5
A dya/Visor world with that D4 just seems really fucking bizarre. Your partner's death is written on the walls and you try to move off, but onto that c4 guy that everyone's forgotten about and not the actual possible townie CFD? Idgi.
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:58 pm
by outed wolf
I didn't expect anyone to listen I just panicked cause I had been pushing dya all game lol and nobody was talking
Was silly and yes makes no sense unless it's performance art to make you write me off
Which I wish it was lmao
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:58 pm
by staypositivefriend
@c4 - if we live in a world where syn is town, then that means that you'll probably be one of the people that gets heavily scrutinized next. if there's a wolf outside of you/syn, that means that the entire game is effectively getting snowballed. if you're town, that means you're in the unique position of knowing that the game is either effectively a lock, or knowing that there's a deepwolf. i am very curious to hear who you think the deepwolf would be in a world where syn is a villager
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:04 pm
by nutella
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:58 pm
@c4 - if we live in a world where syn is town, then that means that you'll probably be one of the people that gets heavily scrutinized next. if there's a wolf outside of you/syn, that means that the entire game is effectively getting snowballed. if you're town, that means you're in the unique position of knowing that the game is either effectively a lock, or knowing that there's a deepwolf. i am very curious to hear who you think the deepwolf would be in a world where syn is a villager
i think it's highly unlikely c4 is wolf with dya?
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:05 pm
by nutella
i mean their pushes on each other could have been hard distancing but i dont really think so, and the main thing is vulgard's post that named them and kza together lol
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:06 pm
by c4e5g3d5
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:58 pm
@c4 - if we live in a world where syn is town, then that means that you'll probably be one of the people that gets heavily scrutinized next. if there's a wolf outside of you/syn, that means that the entire game is effectively getting snowballed. if you're town, that means you're in the unique position of knowing that the game is either effectively a lock, or knowing that there's a deepwolf. i am very curious to hear who you think the deepwolf would be in a world where syn is a villager
Default answer would probably be Dizzy or Zack, and I don't want to start another fight so Zack. Only recency bias, haven't looked at his clearing stuff in a while and I have looked at everyone else's.
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:58 pm
@c4 - if we live in a world where syn is town, then that means that you'll probably be one of the people that gets heavily scrutinized next. if there's a wolf outside of you/syn, that means that the entire game is effectively getting snowballed. if you're town, that means you're in the unique position of knowing that the game is either effectively a lock, or knowing that there's a deepwolf. i am very curious to hear who you think the deepwolf would be in a world where syn is a villager
i think it's highly unlikely c4 is wolf with dya?
i dont disagree fwiw, i just kinda assumed that other people didnt feel the same way considering how dya/c4 were both consensus POE yesterday in spite of not having much partner equity
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:16 pm
by bronana
please, if I was a wolf I would have either bussed hard yesterday or joined the c4 counter wagon
instead I stayed off wagon and clearly tried to veto the c4 wagon when it got close to dya's, check my posts
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:18 pm
by staypositivefriend
>>me going to the endgame after hardbussing dyachei from d1 onwards
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 5]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:19 pm
by outed wolf
i am probably gonna kill syn and then maybe arete after that
we will see
Re: PSY 2310 - Cognitive Psychology [DAY 4]
Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:22 pm
by bronana
bronana wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:03 pm
I'm sick of killing villagers because they aren't doing or posting enough
c4 feels like a miss and resolves nothing
few hours before EOD and wagons were getting v close at the time
I would have voted dya at eod if it was necessary but there's no way for me to prove that, obviously. as it stood I didn't need to do anything for dya to die, so I mostly focused on other contingencies. I don't really care about getting the personal glory, I just want to win and make sure the bases are covered.
