The Syndicate

Nevinera wrote:That was not the point I was trying to make. If he thought the game had originally been unbalanced, then sure - he might try to balance it back out by adding someone to the losing team. But he's not going to take a game that was essentially fair, but has one side starting to win, and then 'balance' it so that the team that has established its lead loses that lead.

Now, unless you think that *both* of the roles in question were evil, the_untamed having left couldn't unbalance things in favor of the civs - at worst it would make things even again, since IMC also left. It makes much more sense the other direction - IMC and untamed were both civs, and he is trying to balance the game back up by adding one of them back in. Which do you think is more likely - both civs, or both bads?

Why does it have to be that either you are both bad or both civvies?

I believe that Epignosis would not launch a game that he and the mod did not believe to be balanced. I think that because we had so many players not participate, the game may have become unbalanced. You mentioned that he brought you in as a replacement simply because you wanted to play. I am thinking that IMC was civvie and untamed was baddie and that Epig had to weigh his options. (For the record, we had other inactive players other than the two roles I just mentioned. For example, Dom was pretty inactive and was civvie.) As Epignosis was deciding where to place you, he may have thought to himself, "I have a new player...do I give him a civilian or a mafia role?" As civvies are close to winning, he most likely thought it unfair to give you the civvie role. That would mean favoring civvies. So, he opted to give you the baddie role. Now we must lynch you.

I find myself agreeing with a lot of what Elohcin is saying. And I really hope that this night proves fruitful for the civvies.

Elohcin wrote: Why does it have to be that either you are both bad or both civvies?

I believe you'll find my reasoning in the post you quoted.

Elohcin wrote: I believe that Epignosis would not launch a game that he and the mod did not believe to be balanced. I think that because we had so many players not participate, the game may have become unbalanced. You mentioned that he brought you in as a replacement simply because you wanted to play. I am thinking that IMC was civvie and untamed was baddie and that Epig had to weigh his options. (For the record, we had other inactive players other than the two roles I just mentioned. For example, Dom was pretty inactive and was civvie.) As Epignosis was deciding where to place you, he may have thought to himself, "I have a new player...do I give him a civilian or a mafia role?" As civvies are close to winning, he most likely thought it unfair to give you the civvie role. That would mean favoring civvies. So, he opted to give you the baddie role. Now we must lynch you.

Now, it's pretty obvious that all arguments of this form are fairly weak - trying to predict what Epi would do to maintain a game balance (when we don't know if it's unbalanced, or which direction it might have been unbalanced in) is unlikely to draw any strong conclusions. Now, we are all grasping at straws trying to find something to clue us in to who could be left, and a weak argument is obviously better than nothing. What's interesting is how confidently you are pointing the finger at me based on it! Even if I *didn't* know that you're wrong, that would give me pause. Now I have to spend another hour going back and reading all of your posts to see how often you do that..

Nevinera wrote:

Elohcin wrote: Why does it have to be that either you are both bad or both civvies?

I believe you'll find my reasoning in the post you quoted.

Elohcin wrote: I believe that Epignosis would not launch a game that he and the mod did not believe to be balanced. I think that because we had so many players not participate, the game may have become unbalanced. You mentioned that he brought you in as a replacement simply because you wanted to play. I am thinking that IMC was civvie and untamed was baddie and that Epig had to weigh his options. (For the record, we had other inactive players other than the two roles I just mentioned. For example, Dom was pretty inactive and was civvie.) As Epignosis was deciding where to place you, he may have thought to himself, "I have a new player...do I give him a civilian or a mafia role?" As civvies are close to winning, he most likely thought it unfair to give you the civvie role. That would mean favoring civvies. So, he opted to give you the baddie role. Now we must lynch you.

Now, it's pretty obvious that all arguments of this form are fairly weak - trying to predict what Epi would do to maintain a game balance (when we don't know if it's unbalanced, or which direction it might have been unbalanced in) is unlikely to draw any strong conclusions. Now, we are all grasping at straws trying to find something to clue us in to who could be left, and a weak argument is obviously better than nothing. What's interesting is how confidently you are pointing the finger at me based on it! Even if I *didn't* know that you're wrong, that would give me pause. Now I have to spend another hour going back and reading all of your posts to see how often you do that..

I'm not crazy confident, I'm making speculations of the situation. Us civvies thought we may win the game after DP was taken out. We were wrong. There is at least one more baddie to lynch. Why not you?

Night 19: The Power No More

Darkness flooded over the shoreline.

It was so difficult to see, and this blindness reminded the party of their own internal conflict and confusion. As they traveled inland, they tried to determine who among them was a foe.

But AceofSpaces was violently ill. He quaked with a fever. Sweat dribbled down his face. Fits of dry heaving overtook him at intervals.

“I must rest,” he said.

As the day bathed the planet in sunshine again, AceofSpaces’ complexion darkened and his hair shone gold. It was as though he grew healthier, but this was only because the spell that concealed his identity was lifting, massaging away his feeble façade.

A grief like none before welled up among them.

“We are doomed.”



AceofSpaces has been lynched. He was Prince Adam / He-Man.
There were no missing PMs.
It is now Day 20. You have 24 hours to lynch someone.

Flyin' High wrote:

My thoughts exactly.

So I am sooooooo beyond torn. Try lynching Timmer again today? Or was a civvie recruited to the dark side? Or is there one baddie floating around?

Flyin' High wrote:So I am sooooooo beyond torn. Try lynching Timmer again today? Or was a civvie recruited to the dark side? Or is there one baddie floating around?

I really don't know at this point.

How did he get lynched at night? -.O

Nevinera wrote:How did he get lynched at night? -.O

I have a theory that night lynches happen when the lynch is a tie. Now, how the lynch got tied is a whole other can of worms.

Maybe Timmer pulled some shenanigans and put secret votes on Aces? This isn't the first time we've tried to lynch Timmer and someone got lynched at night. Granted, the first time it happened a Snake Mountaineer got lynched (Roxy, Evil-Lyn).

Flyin' High wrote:

Nevinera wrote:How did he get lynched at night? -.O

I have a theory that night lynches happen when the lynch is a tie. Now, how the lynch got tied is a whole other can of worms.

Maybe Timmer pulled some shenanigans and put secret votes on Aces? This isn't the first time we've tried to lynch Timmer and someone got lynched at night. Granted, the first time it happened a Snake Mountaineer got lynched (Roxy, Evil-Lyn).

Could it be that he was targeted by a civvie and that is why Epi called it a lynch?

@ Llama - remember when you were ressurected and a sacrifice had to be made? Do you know what that sacrifice was? If so, what was it? Was it your civvie status?

Flyin' High wrote:

Nevinera wrote:How did he get lynched at night? -.O

I have a theory that night lynches happen when the lynch is a tie. Now, how the lynch got tied is a whole other can of worms.

Maybe Timmer pulled some shenanigans and put secret votes on Aces? This isn't the first time we've tried to lynch Timmer and someone got lynched at night. Granted, the first time it happened a Snake Mountaineer got lynched (Roxy, Evil-Lyn).

That is a good theory. The other possibility(and the first thing that occurred to me) is that timmer can redirect attempted lynches of him. I really don't know who to vote for.

Well, there was no night kill by Snake mountain. That means either they are all dead or the last one is inactive, which would make it Ishar. I say we lynch him and see what happens. I am afraid of trying to lynch timmer again, to be honest.Thoughts?

thellama73 wrote:Well, there was no night kill by Snake mountain. That means either they are all dead or the last one is inactive, which would make it Ishar. I say we lynch him and see what happens. I am afraid of trying to lynch timmer again, to be honest.Thoughts?

I don't really see a downside - if he's inactive, then he's not helping us anyway right?

It doesn't look like we're being nightkilled, so there's no urgency to our actions that I can see.

Llama, since you came in and completely ignored my question, I will ask again...

Remember when you were ressurected and a sacrifice had to be made? Do you know what that sacrifice was? If so, what was it? Was it your civvie status that was sacrificed? Are you the recruit we are suspecting?

Elohcin wrote:Llama, since you came in and completely ignored my question, I will ask again...

Remember when you were ressurected and a sacrifice had to be made? Do you know what that sacrifice was? If so, what was it? Was it your civvie status that was sacrificed? Are you the recruit we are suspecting?

Sorry, didn't see your post. I have no idea what the sacrifice was. I never found out. I am not a recruit, as I think should be evident from my leading the charge against DP and other baddies recently.

thellama73 wrote:Well, there was no night kill by Snake mountain. That means either they are all dead or the last one is inactive, which would make it Ishar. I say we lynch him and see what happens. I am afraid of trying to lynch timmer again, to be honest.Thoughts?

I don't want to jump to conclusions about you being a traitor just yet. I agree we should lynch Ishar first and see what happens.

Nevinera seems pretty bright I wouldn't be shocked if he skipped a kill to put pressure elsewhere. The idea to lynch came pretty quick... my vote will oikeky to go Nevi. Epig wouldn't fill a civ role and leave a lone baddie role unfilled.

that shiuld read " the idea to lynch Ishar came pretty quick."

timmer wrote:Nevinera seems pretty bright I wouldn't be shocked if he skipped a kill to put pressure elsewhere. The idea to lynch came pretty quick... my vote will oikeky to go Nevi. Epig wouldn't fill a civ role and leave a lone baddie role unfilled.

Er, that wasn't my idea? I much agree with the logic, but llama thought of Ishar as a good target. I kind of forgot he was still alive >.<

timmer wrote:Nevinera seems pretty bright I wouldn't be shocked if he skipped a kill to put pressure elsewhere. The idea to lynch came pretty quick... my vote will oikeky to go Nevi. Epig wouldn't fill a civ role and leave a lone baddie role unfilled.

The more I think about it, the more I think you're right, Timmer. It wouldn't make sense to bring in a substitute this late and fill another civvie role if the only remaining baddie had been inactive all game.

Votes Nevinera

thellama73 wrote: It wouldn't make sense to bring in a substitute this late and fill another civvie role if the only remaining baddie had been inactive all game.

No, it wouldn't. But when I entered the game, shadow-weaver was still alive, and I actually don't think Ishar is the 'last remaining baddie' - I think timmer still needs to fail some objective. But I don't see a downside to lynching Ishar, so I jumped on your wagon.

(voted ishar)

thellama73 wrote:

timmer wrote:Nevinera seems pretty bright I wouldn't be shocked if he skipped a kill to put pressure elsewhere. The idea to lynch came pretty quick... my vote will oikeky to go Nevi. Epig wouldn't fill a civ role and leave a lone baddie role unfilled.

The more I think about it, the more I think you're right, Timmer. It wouldn't make sense to bring in a substitute this late and fill another civvie role if the only remaining baddie had been inactive all game.

Votes Nevinera

This is what I was talking about earlier about balancing out the game. Epi would want to keep things as fair as possible as a player is replaced.

Elohcin wrote:

Nevinera wrote:That was not the point I was trying to make. If he thought the game had originally been unbalanced, then sure - he might try to balance it back out by adding someone to the losing team. But he's not going to take a game that was essentially fair, but has one side starting to win, and then 'balance' it so that the team that has established its lead loses that lead.

Now, unless you think that *both* of the roles in question were evil, the_untamed having left couldn't unbalance things in favor of the civs - at worst it would make things even again, since IMC also left. It makes much more sense the other direction - IMC and untamed were both civs, and he is trying to balance the game back up by adding one of them back in. Which do you think is more likely - both civs, or both bads?

Why does it have to be that either you are both bad or both civvies?

I believe that Epignosis would not launch a game that he and the mod did not believe to be balanced. I think that because we had so many players not participate, the game may have become unbalanced. You mentioned that he brought you in as a replacement simply because you wanted to play. I am thinking that IMC was civvie and untamed was baddie and that Epig had to weigh his options. (For the record, we had other inactive players other than the two roles I just mentioned. For example, Dom was pretty inactive and was civvie.) As Epignosis was deciding where to place you, he may have thought to himself, "I have a new player...do I give him a civilian or a mafia role?" As civvies are close to winning, he most likely thought it unfair to give you the civvie role. That would mean favoring civvies. So, he opted to give you the baddie role. Now we must lynch you.

*Votes Nevinera*

While I'll be happy to argue this out today (and again tomorrow) can anyone think of a downside to lynching Ishar first?

I mean, if I were so 'clever' that I'd give up my night kills to fool you, then you would be under no time pressure. It's not like they can save them up, I assume? Ishar isn't present, so he can't vote with you, so the baddies getting him killed wouldn't affect civvie success probability at all. Even if he turns out to have been a civ, it would give us a bit more information about who could be left.

But instead, we're all going to vote for me, based on incredibly flimsy 'WWED' logic?

Well, lets see if timmer kills anyone this round, at least we can test the 'redirected lynching' theory..

Oh gosh. I really hope Nevinera is a recruited to the badside player because I do not think he's mafia!!!! I wish there had been more discussion before players jumped into a vote.

If Ishar is the last baddie, then there is not really any time pressure to lynch him, since he is not performing night kills or influencing the discussion in any way. However, if it is Nevinera, it would be dangerous to leave him alive. And since I know him in real life, I know that he is tricksy and not to be trusted. It would be a shame to lynch him if he turns out civ, but we would still have plenty of time to get Ishar afterwards even if that did happen.

thellama73 wrote:If Ishar is the last baddie, then there is not really any time pressure to lynch him, since he is not performing night kills or influencing the discussion in any way. However, if it is Nevinera, it would be dangerous to leave him alive. And since I know him in real life, I know that he is tricksy and not to be trusted. It would be a shame to lynch him if he turns out civ, but we would still have plenty of time to get Ishar afterwards even if that did happen.

You're starting to make me suspicious, llama.. You ought to know who I am, but you seem to be determined to kill me anyway. That makes me think that you might have been recruited mid-game.

If he eventually gets me killed, remember this everyone..

I feel pretty certain he will flip civvie. That's the problem. If we're looking for a recruit, why would the mafia recruit someone who wasn't around to play?

But since this game has so many secrets, I just hope that something happened behind the scenes to make Nevinera be who we're looking for.

Have you decided that Timmer is 100% unlynchable?

I want Timmer to be on our side, but as the numbers dwindle I'm really beginning to wonder.

*Linki* Yes, Nevinera. I hear what you're saying and it's making me wonder too.

Gah, I'm very confused right now.

Elohcin, yesterday you started to accuse llama of being a traitor. What made you post that? Has something changed to give you doubt?

Nevinera wrote:

thellama73 wrote:If Ishar is the last baddie, then there is not really any time pressure to lynch him, since he is not performing night kills or influencing the discussion in any way. However, if it is Nevinera, it would be dangerous to leave him alive. And since I know him in real life, I know that he is tricksy and not to be trusted. It would be a shame to lynch him if he turns out civ, but we would still have plenty of time to get Ishar afterwards even if that did happen.

You're starting to make me suspicious, llama.. You ought to know who I am, but you seem to be determined to kill me anyway. That makes me think that you might have been recruited mid-game.

If he eventually gets me killed, remember this everyone..

I think what llama says here does make sense. Nev, how does this make you suspicious of llama and what makes you say that he may have been recruited mid-game. That is a pretty specific claim when you were not here at the time.

Flyin' High wrote:
Elohcin, yesterday you started to accuse llama of being a traitor. What made you post that? Has something changed to give you doubt?

Ever since llama was resurrected, he has pinged me a few times by the things he has said or not said. And, we all knew there was going to be a sacrifice for his resurrection. I think that sacrifice may have been his civvie status. As much as I want to trust him, I am not sure I do.

If other people want to tip the vote over to Ishar, I am fine with that. I am far from 100% convinced about Nevinera, but I was suspecting the-untamed earlier (largely by process of elimination) and the substitution by itself is not enough to make me abandon my suspicions. I support a lynch of Ishar if you guys want to overrule my vote.

I am also a little surprised at all this talk of recruits. Do we have any real reason to believe that there are any? I haven't seen anything that makes me think there are recruits. I think it's more likely that timmer is mistaken and that there is a Snake Mountain member left.

If Merman is still alive and Timmer got incorrect info, then it's not Nevinera. I can promise you that.

The only available person to be Merman would have to be Ishar if we're wrong that Snake Mountain was eliminated.

Here's the problem...if Snake Mountain is still around, then why have there been nights with no missing PMs?

elohcin wrote:I think what llama says here does make sense. Nev, how does this make you suspicious of llama and what makes you say that he may have been recruited mid-game. That is a pretty specific claim when you were not here at the time.

As I understand the rules, I'm not allowed to tell you that :-\

The line between revealing my deductions and revealing the information I must have had to make them is a bit fuzzy to me; I've already been pushing that line a bit, to be honest.

I'm not confident that it would have happened 'mid-game', but his early-game actions don't track with being a baddie at all. He's a subtle player in general; if he had been converted, he would have carefully stayed non-obvious thereafter, relying on his earlier behavior to convince people that he's good, and occasionally doing 'good' things when he thinks they'd be convincing but have justifiably low impact on him. Has that been happening?

At any rate, my logic and honesty will become much easier to follow when I'm lynched, which is presumeably why he flip-flopped after I offered to take him down with me.

I am going to go reread the post where llama was resurrected to see if anything sticks out that I never noticed before.

The main reason I flip flopped (if you insist on calling it that) is because of FH's defense of you. I trust FH pretty heavily, so her testimony gave me pause, especially since I was considering voting for Ishar anyway.

Nevinera wrote:

elohcin wrote:I think what llama says here does make sense. Nev, how does this make you suspicious of llama and what makes you say that he may have been recruited mid-game. That is a pretty specific claim when you were not here at the time.

As I understand the rules, I'm not allowed to tell you that :-\

The line between revealing my deductions and revealing the information I must have had to make them is a bit fuzzy to me; I've already been pushing that line a bit, to be honest.

I'm not confident that it would have happened 'mid-game', but his early-game actions don't track with being a baddie at all. He's a subtle player in general; if he had been converted, he would have carefully stayed non-obvious thereafter, relying on his earlier behavior to convince people that he's good, and occasionally doing 'good' things when he thinks they'd be convincing but have justifiably low impact on him. Has that been happening?

At any rate, my logic and honesty will become much easier to follow when I'm lynched, which is presumeably why he flip-flopped after I offered to take him down with me.

Interesting.

So I went back and reread the rezz and the mention of the sacrifice is puzzling since I don't think anything ever came of that (at least not publicly).

But I also reread llama's posts since then and they really give me nothing but good feelings.

I do feel like there is something off surrounding Nevinera v. llama, but if there are no original mafia left then I feel like I'd be guessing between the two of them.

Or we need to lynch Timmer and we've all simply assumed that he was on our side.

Or we could lynch Ishar, since there's no downside?

Flyin' High wrote:So I went back and reread the rezz and the mention of the sacrifice is puzzling since I don't think anything ever came of that (at least not publicly).

But I also reread llama's posts since then and they really give me nothing but good feelings.

I do feel like there is something off surrounding Nevinera v. llama, but if there are no original mafia left then I feel like I'd be guessing between the two of them.

Or we need to lynch Timmer and we've all simply assumed that he was on our side.

I really want to lynch timmer. I don't think his death would prevent us from winning, so at worst we lose an ally. But I am gunshy, since every time we try to lynch him someone good dies instead. I am frankly afraid to try again, but it may turn out that we have no choice.

Where is blindfaeth? He is being awfully quiet about all this.

Maybe today we vote for Ishar (me, BF, and Timmer since I think we're the only votes left to cast) and cross our fingers that somehow he's the missing baddie.

And if we lose a civvie, it'll be a shame, but at least it's one that hasn't shown up all game.

Then we can regroup and try for Timmer again, perhaps? Maybe another night will shed more light on the situation.

*Linki* I think blindfaeth has become very busy with his new job because he was relatively quiet in the Minecraft game (compared to his normal posting level), and he was quiet in the speed game being played over on RM.

I feel that BF is still completely trustworthy for what it's worth. Though at this point in the game I guess anything's possible? But I'm not ready to suspect him because other than being quiet he's done nothing to make me change my opinion of him.

I just want to say, FH, that if you, BF or Elohcin turn out to be traitors, you deserve congratulations for a hell of a game, because I have been trusting all of you for a very long time.

thellama73 wrote:I just want to say, FH, that if you, BF or Elohcin turn out to be traitors, you deserve congratulations for a hell of a game, because I have been trusting all of you for a very long time.

I can say the same! I really, really, really hope there are no traitors.

Flyin' High wrote:I do feel like there is something off surrounding Nevinera v. llama, but if there are no original mafia left then I feel like I'd be guessing between the two of them.

Llama and I know each other IRL, and have played thousands of various games together, including several hidden-role games like Bang! and Sabateur - we've picked up a tendency to treat each other as a threat, because we're both very good liars (though I doubt that admission will help my chances of survival).

I'm willing to suspect him of deception for things that I wouldn't credit most people with being able to pull off, because he's *very* good at playing subtle angles. But I certainly don't have an airtight case against him (even to myself), and there are some things I expect to (not) happen over the next few nights that will answer a few questions for me. Which I will then not be allowed to explain to you.. but still. At least *I'll* know :-)

Nevinera wrote: Llama and I know each other IRL, and have played thousands of various games together, including several hidden-role games like Bang! and Sabateur - we've picked up a tendency to treat each other as a threat, because we're both very good liars (though I doubt that admission will help my chances of survival).

I'm willing to suspect him of deception for things that I wouldn't credit most people with being able to pull off, because he's *very* good at playing subtle angles. But I certainly don't have an airtight case against him (even to myself), and there are some things I expect to (not) happen over the next few nights that will answer a few questions for me. Which I will then not be allowed to explain to you.. but still. At least *I'll* know :-)

Ha! Ditto. I hope this doesn't lead to getting us both killed, and then we both turn out to be civvies.

I got unexpectedly called to work so voted now. my choice shiuld be no surprise.

I really hope Nevinera is a recruited baddie, otherwise we'll be losing another civvie today.