The Syndicate

Okay. If Jack Daw is a civilian vigilante I think he or she needs to claim. I am open to protests here if y’all have some mechanical objection. This is getting to the point though that I am talking a cult or some other off-script shenanigan seriously.

I’m just gonna out the rest of my role. I have a 20% chance of surviving a night kill. That’s the positive to [not really] offset the crippled aspect.

It’s possible I’ve survived one. It’s highly improbable I’ve survived two.

yea i agree jack daw should claim if town

i think that i was responsible for the missing kill tonight actually

Okay Hally. I won’t pry.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:22 am i think that i was responsible for the missing kill tonight actually

or like, if there was a missing kill i think it was me who stopped it

my role indicates the presence of an anti-town nk i think

but that could have just been pawn’s kill

meh it’s fine i can claim

i’m a JOAT

i had a 1-shot voyeur ability that i used N1

i can also give someone a bullet proof vest. gave it to wisp last night, and i think it protected him from the kill

i can also give out a gun (1-shot vig) and steal someone’s vote for the next day

i think i’ll probably give jay the gun next night

but yea, this is my role. claiming now because after this coming night i’m pretty sure i’ll be out of everything but the vote stealing, which i don’t care about

also if scum wants to shoot me over wisp or daisy have at it

btw whoever said they wanted to be jack skellington (kitsu i think?), sorry that’s me

Makes sense. Cool. They prob tried to murder Wisp.

or wait i should give but the gun since she’s confirmed

idk it doesn’t really matter ig because i’m gonna say who i’m giving the gun to before i do and if they don’t vig someone that town wants dead i’m coming for them

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:37 am or wait i should give but the gun since she’s confirmed

idk it doesn’t really matter ig because i’m gonna say who i’m giving the gun to before i do and if they don’t vig someone that town wants dead i’m coming for them

*nut

i’m not giving a butt the gun

oh fun. seems likely jay was unsuccessfully shot n1 then I'd think?


I'd be careful about saying you're planning to give me the gun next night bc they'd probably just nk me at the same time lol (and I assume I wouldn't be able to use it until the next day, unless you can gift it during day rather than night?) whereas now that jay outed his survival chance they may simply avoid trying to kill him? which also they might keep him around anyway for the vote thing. my other thought with the vote thing is it might get turned off in lylo so as not to be too extremely broken


so basically i've fully drowned us in wifom and we can do whatever.

I checked about Milo/Lilo. It doesn’t get turned off. I can defy an order and my vote will still count, but I will die. That could save a F3.

hmmph

i mean, if they wanna kill you to stop you from getting my gun they have to not kill wisp or daisy, which like... ok be my guest lol

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:19 am Okay. If Jack Daw is a civilian vigilante I think he or she needs to claim. I am open to protests here if y’all have some mechanical objection. This is getting to the point though that I am talking a cult or some other off-script shenanigan seriously.

I had mentioned before I remember seeing cult in the rules but with this game who knows. It is sounding like Hally may have prevented the kill though with the vest. I don't think hally should announce ahead of time who she gives the gun to just in case there is a mafia kill that would stop them.

I would have no hesitation to use that gun to shoot an appropriate target directly in the ass.

Pool of suspects for whom there is no objective or powerful subjective civilian evidence:

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
KitsuShel
sabie12
Epignosis
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay

Which three (or two if you're listed) are the worst chops on this list? That leaves a group of four, which I think would be relatively healthy.

On the basis of the previous post:

I'll remove myself. I'll remove sabie12. I believe in the meta I extracted, even from a limited sample, and I have just felt authenticity from her all game long. I would still like to check this against interactive reviews if my obnoxious graduate school bullshit will give me the opportunity, but until then I am removing her. I will further qualify this meta perspective in a moment to verify it.

After that it becomes a bit more difficult. My first instinct is to removed Kitsu; I acknowledge the potential for preconception and bias to play a heavy role there. I am somewhat moved by one point: if Colin is a mafioso, I don't think Kitsu is a likely teammate. The way he shrugged into the "town via angleshoot" read suggests to me that he would have just been accepting that reality instead of combating it headstrong. A mafia Kitsu needs a teammate among [Epignosis and Alison] I think to make a great deal of sense, as those interactions were, to my memory, a bit more egregiously supportive.

I am not removing Colin. I don't have a good enough reason right now.

I am not removing Tony. I am far too conflicted on that read.

I am not removing Epignosis. He has very little going for him. Only Nanook's corpse stands in his defense, and I'm not even sure that would still be the case if he lived.

If I were to deny removing Kitsu, I think Alison would be the next option. At some dispersed moments of her hunt I have followed her mindset closely enough that it has felt like a parallel of my own. That has been inconsistent, however, and I don't think I'm comfortable removing her.

Broader meta review for sabie12
(only considering games from 2018 or later, note post counts skewed slightly by post-game chatter)

When sabie12 is aligned with the civilians


When sabie12 is aligned with the mafia


[mention]sabie12[/mention] what was your alignment in Arrowverse? I can't find it.
Arrowverse


When sabie12 is playing Jack Attack Mafia right now

Jack Attack
- word density low, activity level moderate (119 posts at early D3)

Notes

- It's difficult to rely on word density as an indicator; she's kind of all over the place there.
- Her activity level may be relatively telling. In all three of those mafia-aligned performances, she was very quiet. I think this is positive for her, as this has possibly been her most active game overall in the last few years.
- I think one game stands out as looking similar, and that's All My Circuits (the last game listed in the sabie civilian pile). The activity level wasn't quite as high as here, but it was elevated by her standards. Her posts were aesthetically pretty similar to here.

Conclusion

I won't pretend this is rock-solid shit, but we have to use the tools available to us. Meta is one of them. This at worst does nothing to hurt sabie's standing. I think it bolsters her standing a little bit.

Thanks Hally <3
My shift today went from 4 hours to 8 so I'll be around

I was hoping that could be a decent trump card, but ohh well

So what I see is, sabie doesn't seem to do much as either alignment lol

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 11:40 pm Probably a fkn cult game.

I’m trapped in a meeting at nearly midnight so bbl

What makes you say this?

Also Cults are like super imbalanced so I would very much hope the host did not stoop to making them

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:19 am if this is a cult game i cri

I think cult games are imbalanced and unfun, and I think they're so imbalanced and unfun that a good host will declare beforehand if the game is a cult game. I trust that Jack is not springing a cult on us out of nowhere and the doctor simply had a good target.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:30 am meh it’s fine i can claim

i’m a JOAT

i had a 1-shot voyeur ability that i used N1

i can also give someone a bullet proof vest. gave it to wisp last night, and i think it protected him from the kill

i can also give out a gun (1-shot vig) and steal someone’s vote for the next day

i think i’ll probably give jay the gun next night

but yea, this is my role. claiming now because after this coming night i’m pretty sure i’ll be out of everything but the vote stealing, which i don’t care about

ok so occam's razor is that this vest is what protected wisp

I do think you should give the gun to confirmed town though, since that makes the most sense, unless you want to see what jay does with it?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:42 am Pool of suspects for whom there is no objective or powerful subjective civilian evidence:

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
KitsuShel
sabie12
Epignosis
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay

Which three (or two if you're listed) are the worst chops on this list? That leaves a group of four, which I think would be relatively healthy.

alison, kitsu, JJJ are the worst executes on this list I think

I'm pretty sure about Alison (no shit) and Kitsu. Was deciding between JJJ and Sabie. I think both are likely to be town, but JJJ seems to be in his element this game and his preferred playstyle and methodology seems like a good fit for this game context, which is why I put JJJ over her.

So when you guys are talking about a cult game, you mean there is no Mafia kill at all, and instead they recruit every night?

I've never seen that, the only Cults I've seen have been alongside Mafia kills, building a third-party team as they go.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:46 am So when you guys are talking about a cult game, you mean there is no Mafia kill at all, and instead they recruit every night?

I've never seen that, the only Cults I've seen have been alongside Mafia kills, building a third-party team as they go.

Yes that would be a “standard” (lol) cult game. I feel less concerned that we’re dealing with that though in light of Hally’s claim.

[mention]Alison[/mention] please describe your level of confidence about the current state of the game.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:04 am @Alison please describe your level of confidence about the current state of the game.

high

like on day 1 it started out kinda badly but circumstances meant the mafia was either forced to shoot in our POE by killing FG, or missed a kill entirely.

on day 2 we cut the anti-town KP in half by executing the SK

on night 2 the mafia missed a kill and we added another player to our confirmed town pool

the people I trust agree with me on who to kill

I think the game is going really well. I don't want to fall into complacency but objectively speaking this has gone favorably

TSP still has not answered my question about his reads

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:19 amI think the game is going really well. I don't want to fall into complacency but objectively speaking this has gone favorably

Okay. I ask because your last response to my "who's the worst chop" thing indicates a pretty secure game. Barring a surprise from sabie or myself, the game is Epignosis, Tony, and Colin. The end. Would you say that's an accurate representation of your feelings?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:24 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:19 amI think the game is going really well. I don't want to fall into complacency but objectively speaking this has gone favorably

Okay. I ask because your last response to my "who's the worst chop" thing indicates a pretty secure game. Barring a surprise from sabie or myself, the game is Epignosis, Tony, and Colin. The end. Would you say that's an accurate representation of your feelings?

Yeah. If we accept the list of confirmed town as being true, and I think it is, then there really is no space for the mafia to hide. I think the team is just those three, some small chance of a surprise of you and sabie, and that's all there is to it.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:38 am Yeah. If we accept the list of confirmed town as being true, and I think it is, then there really is no space for the mafia to hide. I think the team is just those three, some small chance of a surprise of you and sabie, and that's all there is to it.

Cool beans. Are you secure that Long Con is a civilian and no shenanigans are afoot?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:42 am Pool of suspects for whom there is no objective or powerful subjective civilian evidence:

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
KitsuShel
sabie12
Epignosis
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay

Which three (or two if you're listed) are the worst chops on this list? That leaves a group of four, which I think would be relatively healthy.

I remove myself because I know my role.

I remove Jay because hunting + meta makes me believe he’s town.

I remove Alison because of tone and hunting.

That leaves TSP, KitsuShel, sabie12 and Epignosis.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:41 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:38 am Yeah. If we accept the list of confirmed town as being true, and I think it is, then there really is no space for the mafia to hide. I think the team is just those three, some small chance of a surprise of you and sabie, and that's all there is to it.

Cool beans. Are you secure that Long Con is a civilian and no shenanigans are afoot?

yeah. We've talked a lot about how maybe mafia can fool Wisp's role but I don't feel like LC or nutella are scum here anyway. I also think wolf LC would try to use his status to open wolf a bit and try to push us off his teammates and I haven't seen anything along those lines from him.

I'm comfortable trusting this LC green check unless/until we get to the point in the game where everyone in the POE is dead and only the towncore remains and the game still hasn't ended. Before then, I am secure.

I vastly prefer this mechanically supported POE to the playstyle one from Day 1. Barring some tricksy behaviour, we got pretty lucky the way things played out. I agree with Alison's optimistic appraisal of the current gamestate.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:44 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:41 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:38 am Yeah. If we accept the list of confirmed town as being true, and I think it is, then there really is no space for the mafia to hide. I think the team is just those three, some small chance of a surprise of you and sabie, and that's all there is to it.

Cool beans. Are you secure that Long Con is a civilian and no shenanigans are afoot?

yeah. We've talked a lot about how maybe mafia can fool Wisp's role but I don't feel like LC or nutella are scum here anyway. I also think wolf LC would try to use his status to open wolf a bit and try to push us off his teammates and I haven't seen anything along those lines from him.

I'm comfortable trusting this LC green check unless/until we get to the point in the game where everyone in the POE is dead and only the towncore remains and the game still hasn't ended. Before then, I am secure.

Yeah, I've been feeling very comfortable to play how I want to since the Night of Vindication. I'm pretty sure that I'm stronger and more involved in the midgame, so we'll see at that point, but this game is feeling like maybe that won't even be all that necessary?

[mention]ColinIsCool[/mention] could you please describe the progression of your thoughts about KitsuShel since you first arrived?

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:04 pm @Alison and @KitsuShel, I'd appreciate it if you could grab me a game in which you were a mafioso off-site. Alison I realize Space Invaders applies, but I hesitate to rely on that -- the mechanics of the game were too different.

This is the most recent one on Realms that I was mafia.

https://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthread.php?t=826161

Do you have a different username on HCRealms?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am @ColinIsCool could you please describe the progression of your thoughts about KitsuShel since you first arrived?

Very blendy in general. I don’t have a meta read to rely on so I have to judge hunting/contributions/tone and nothing there inspires me to confidence. I gave KitsuShel a clear earlier in the game because of the notion that claiming miller without knowing what it’s called would be the kind of mistake a townie would make, but I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody. I struggle to find a reason to townread her.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 ambut I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody.

why

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:59 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 ambut I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody.

why

I mean, why is it any reason to clear somebody? Scum can make that mistake too. I don’t know how to fill in this sentence:

“Claiming miller without knowing what a miller is makes KitsuShel town because ....”

My initial thinking was, oh yeah scum would be more coordinated in BTSC and Kitsu would be coached if they were gonna do that, and it’s too innocuous to be scum. But ... that’s dumb.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:05 am I mean, why is it any reason to clear somebody? Scum can make that mistake too. I don’t know how to fill in this sentence:

“Claiming miller without knowing what a miller is makes KitsuShel town because ....”

My initial thinking was, oh yeah scum would be more coordinated in BTSC and Kitsu would be coached if they were gonna do that, and it’s too innocuous to be scum. But ... that’s dumb.

How about this:

Kitsu enters the game, sees 80 people claiming some thing called "miller"

Instead of also claiming miller [as perhaps per some deliberate mafia team maneuver], Kitsu first asks what a miller is

Someone explains miller

Kitsu verifies "oh, well, yeah I'm also that"

If Kitsu, either on her own or via mafia team influence, wants to fake claim miller, are those middle steps likely to exist?

They aren’t if we presume scum-Kitsu’s first instinct to go to BTSC and ask there instead, but I see no reason to think as much.

At best it’s NAI for me. I can’t say it makes her any more likely to be scum.

I've been skimming the mafia-aligned games Alison provided links for. I think any potential differences between those performances and the Alison of this game are subtle enough that I would not feel great about doing anything with them. The best I have is this:

In those two games, Alison's ratio for Serious Business Posts to Silly Posts was about 90:10, whereas in this game it has been like 99:1.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:13 am They aren’t if we presume scum-Kitsu’s first instinct to go to BTSC and ask there instead, but I see no reason to think as much.

At best it’s NAI for me. I can’t say it makes her any more likely to be scum.

Who among your suspects do you think would make the best chop for today?