The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:15 am

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:13 am They aren’t if we presume scum-Kitsu’s first instinct to go to BTSC and ask there instead, but I see no reason to think as much.

At best it’s NAI for me. I can’t say it makes her any more likely to be scum.

Who among your suspects do you think would make the best chop for today?

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:40 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:30 am meh it’s fine i can claim

i’m a JOAT

i had a 1-shot voyeur ability that i used N1

i can also give someone a bullet proof vest. gave it to wisp last night, and i think it protected him from the kill

i can also give out a gun (1-shot vig) and steal someone’s vote for the next day

i think i’ll probably give jay the gun next night

but yea, this is my role. claiming now because after this coming night i’m pretty sure i’ll be out of everything but the vote stealing, which i don’t care about

ok so occam's razor is that this vest is what protected wisp

I do think you should give the gun to confirmed town though, since that makes the most sense, unless you want to see what jay does with it?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:52 am

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:04 pm @Alison and @KitsuShel, I'd appreciate it if you could grab me a game in which you were a mafioso off-site. Alison I realize Space Invaders applies, but I hesitate to rely on that -- the mechanics of the game were too different.

This is the most recent one on Realms that I was mafia.

https://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthread.php?t=826161

Do you have a different username on HCRealms?

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:32 am also if scum wants to shoot me over wisp or daisy have at it

btw whoever said they wanted to be jack skellington (kitsu i think?), sorry that’s me

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:04 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:52 am

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:39 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:04 pm @Alison and @KitsuShel, I'd appreciate it if you could grab me a game in which you were a mafioso off-site. Alison I realize Space Invaders applies, but I hesitate to rely on that -- the mechanics of the game were too different.

This is the most recent one on Realms that I was mafia.

https://www.hcrealms.com/forum/showthread.php?t=826161

Do you have a different username on HCRealms?

No, sir. I’m KitsuShel I’m literally every site/platform out there. I’ve been a Realms member since 2004.

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:10 am So what I see is, sabie doesn't seem to do much as either alignment lol

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:30 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:40 am

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:30 am meh it’s fine i can claim

i’m a JOAT

i had a 1-shot voyeur ability that i used N1

i can also give someone a bullet proof vest. gave it to wisp last night, and i think it protected him from the kill

i can also give out a gun (1-shot vig) and steal someone’s vote for the next day

i think i’ll probably give jay the gun next night

but yea, this is my role. claiming now because after this coming night i’m pretty sure i’ll be out of everything but the vote stealing, which i don’t care about

ok so occam's razor is that this vest is what protected wisp

I do think you should give the gun to confirmed town though, since that makes the most sense, unless you want to see what jay does with it?

so apparently i could only give a vest OR a gun

so i don’t have a gun to give anymore

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:53 am I may or may not have the vest still, I'll let mafia wifom that
@Long Con
Who did u target?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:15 am I've been skimming the mafia-aligned games Alison provided links for. I think any potential differences between those performances and the Alison of this game are subtle enough that I would not feel great about doing anything with them. The best I have is this:

In those two games, Alison's ratio for Serious Business Posts to Silly Posts was about 90:10, whereas in this game it has been like 99:1.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am @ColinIsCool could you please describe the progression of your thoughts about KitsuShel since you first arrived?

Very blendy in general. I don’t have a meta read to rely on so I have to judge hunting/contributions/tone and nothing there inspires me to confidence. I gave KitsuShel a clear earlier in the game because of the notion that claiming miller without knowing what it’s called would be the kind of mistake a townie would make, but I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody. I struggle to find a reason to townread her.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:33 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am @ColinIsCool could you please describe the progression of your thoughts about KitsuShel since you first arrived?

Very blendy in general. I don’t have a meta read to rely on so I have to judge hunting/contributions/tone and nothing there inspires me to confidence. I gave KitsuShel a clear earlier in the game because of the notion that claiming miller without knowing what it’s called would be the kind of mistake a townie would make, but I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody. I struggle to find a reason to townread her.

have you not ever looked at kitsu's posts and go "this is obvious town"?

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:33 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am @ColinIsCool could you please describe the progression of your thoughts about KitsuShel since you first arrived?

Very blendy in general. I don’t have a meta read to rely on so I have to judge hunting/contributions/tone and nothing there inspires me to confidence. I gave KitsuShel a clear earlier in the game because of the notion that claiming miller without knowing what it’s called would be the kind of mistake a townie would make, but I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody. I struggle to find a reason to townread her.

have you not ever looked at kitsu's posts and go "this is obvious town"?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:41 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:33 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:50 am @ColinIsCool could you please describe the progression of your thoughts about KitsuShel since you first arrived?

Very blendy in general. I don’t have a meta read to rely on so I have to judge hunting/contributions/tone and nothing there inspires me to confidence. I gave KitsuShel a clear earlier in the game because of the notion that claiming miller without knowing what it’s called would be the kind of mistake a townie would make, but I think now that that is a bad reason to clear somebody. I struggle to find a reason to townread her.

have you not ever looked at kitsu's posts and go "this is obvious town"?

Have you ever been wrong when you thought that about someone's posts?

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:04 pm No, sir. I’m KitsuShel I’m literally every site/platform out there. I’ve been a Realms member since 2004.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:51 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:45 am

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 10:29 pm

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:13 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Sun Jul 12, 2020 9:11 pm all I want is to wake up and read that the correct night actions were performed and nobody went rogue

I will absolutely NOT be investigating someone publicly announced. I know we have a role director and all three of us investigating the same person makes it so easy to fuck with our results. There is a very obvious way that can go wrong and I won't go down that path.

it is becausae of the role redirector that you have to investigate the same person, so we are guaranteed to get a result on the person you double investigate, since the role redirector can only redirect one person

Mmm

Please tell me what mmm is

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:21 am I’m just gonna out the rest of my role. I have a 20% chance of surviving a night kill. That’s the positive to [not really] offset the crippled aspect.

It’s possible I’ve survived one. It’s highly improbable I’ve survived two.

Hally wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:37 am or wait i should give but the gun since she’s confirmed

idk it doesn’t really matter ig because i’m gonna say who i’m giving the gun to before i do and if they don’t vig someone that town wants dead i’m coming for them

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:50 am oh fun. seems likely jay was unsuccessfully shot n1 then I'd think?


I'd be careful about saying you're planning to give me the gun next night bc they'd probably just nk me at the same time lol (and I assume I wouldn't be able to use it until the next day, unless you can gift it during day rather than night?) whereas now that jay outed his survival chance they may simply avoid trying to kill him? which also they might keep him around anyway for the vote thing. my other thought with the vote thing is it might get turned off in lylo so as not to be too extremely broken


so basically i've fully drowned us in wifom and we can do whatever.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:42 am Pool of suspects for whom there is no objective or powerful subjective civilian evidence:

ColinIsCool
TonyStarkPrime
KitsuShel
sabie12
Epignosis
Alison
JaggedJimmyJay

Which three (or two if you're listed) are the worst chops on this list? That leaves a group of four, which I think would be relatively healthy.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 8:33 am Broader meta review for sabie12
(only considering games from 2018 or later, note post counts skewed slightly by post-game chatter)

When sabie12 is aligned with the civilians

Spoiler: show

Space Force
- word density a bit higher, activity level low-moderate (34 posts, killed on N1)

Vanilla Mafia
- word density inconsistent, activity level low, (14 posts, killed on N1)

2018 Socky Awards
- word density moderate, activity level low, (63 posts, chopped on D7)

A World Asunder
- word density high, activity level low[ish], (177 posts, killed on N11)

Shockheaded Peter
- word density moderate, activity level low (64 posts, died at endgame on D6)

Community Mafia
- word density low[ish], activity level low[ish] (43 posts, chopped on D2)

World Flags
- word density moderate, activity level low (38 posts, killed N2)

Addams Family
- word density high, activity level very low (6 posts, killed N1)

Vault Hunt
- word density moderate, activity level very low (10 posts, chopped D2)

Better Off Ted
- word density low, activity level low[ish] (25 posts, chopped on D1) replaced back into game as a mafioso on Day 3

Sockville Penitentiary
- word density moderate, activity level very low (29 posts, killed on N5, game had tight post count restrictions)

Australian Country Murder Mystery
- word density moderate-high, activity level low (49 posts, survived through D4)

All My Circuits
- word density low-moderate, activity level low-moderate (120 posts, survived through D7)

When sabie12 is aligned with the mafia

Spoiler: show

Better Off Ted
- word density high, activity level very low (15 posts from replacing in on D3 through endgame D5)

Fallout Mafia
- word density moderate-high, activity level very low (15 posts, chopped D2)

Girl Genius
- word density inconsistent, activity level very low (6 posts, chopped on D5)

@sabie12 what was your alignment in Arrowverse? I can't find it.
Arrowverse


When sabie12 is playing Jack Attack Mafia right now

Jack Attack
- word density low, activity level moderate (119 posts at early D3)

Notes

- It's difficult to rely on word density as an indicator; she's kind of all over the place there.
- Her activity level may be relatively telling. In all three of those mafia-aligned performances, she was very quiet. I think this is positive for her, as this has possibly been her most active game overall in the last few years.
- I think one game stands out as looking similar, and that's All My Circuits (the last game listed in the sabie civilian pile). The activity level wasn't quite as high as here, but it was elevated by her standards. Her posts were aesthetically pretty similar to here.

Conclusion

I won't pretend this is rock-solid shit, but we have to use the tools available to us. Meta is one of them. This at worst does nothing to hurt sabie's standing. I think it bolsters her standing a little bit.

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:19 am TSP still has not answered my question about his reads

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:11 pm @TonyStarkPrime
Why Daisy below Sabie?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:24 am

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:19 amI think the game is going really well. I don't want to fall into complacency but objectively speaking this has gone favorably

Okay. I ask because your last response to my "who's the worst chop" thing indicates a pretty secure game. Barring a surprise from sabie or myself, the game is Epignosis, Tony, and Colin. The end. Would you say that's an accurate representation of your feelings?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:02 pm It’s a questionable strategy.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:12 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:19 am TSP still has not answered my question about his reads

I missed it. Can someone direct me? I’m on my phone, I left my computer elsewhere and due to current deadly viruses haven’t had the opportunity to retrieve it yet.

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:58 pm I think it's bad because we are letting mafia dictate our actions instead of dictating them ourselves!

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:28 pm I won’t be rereading Tony’s ISO because I did that yesterday; I go back and forth on him but can’t find it in me to feel good enough to remove him from POE.

I just read KitsuShel’s and I invite everybody else to check it out, because I seriously am not seeing the obvious-town everybody else is. In 2 pages of posts there are only a few (possibly less than 5, even) that offer reads. Most of it is questions about set-up, terminology, theories of the game that aren’t actual expressions of suspicions, and things that aren’t reads. She is the one person in the game that I have seriously no idea what they believe, and that leaves me pinged as all-get-out.

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:37 pm In reviewing sabie’s posts there’s a clear continuity of thought (constant suspicion of me lol), progression in her thinking (adding Allison as my teammate) and a general willingness to solve that I don’t think I would see from her as scum. Maybe I’m projecting but her posts feel unpretentious as if she’s not trying too hard to present herself as town. Better than KitsuShel and possibly Tony

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:50 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:28 pm I won’t be rereading Tony’s ISO because I did that yesterday; I go back and forth on him but can’t find it in me to feel good enough to remove him from POE.

I just read KitsuShel’s and I invite everybody else to check it out, because I seriously am not seeing the obvious-town everybody else is. In 2 pages of posts there are only a few (possibly less than 5, even) that offer reads. Most of it is questions about set-up, terminology, theories of the game that aren’t actual expressions of suspicions, and things that aren’t reads. She is the one person in the game that I have seriously no idea what they believe, and that leaves me pinged as all-get-out.

I don't see kitsushel as obvious town. I'm a bit more of a null on her I guess. I feel like she is not used to how we do things here and she's struggling to figure that all out. I believe part of the reason people are town reading her is that they think she is being genuine and that she may be less unsure about everything if she had teammates to help her figure it out.

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:12 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:50 pm

ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 6:28 pm I won’t be rereading Tony’s ISO because I did that yesterday; I go back and forth on him but can’t find it in me to feel good enough to remove him from POE.

I just read KitsuShel’s and I invite everybody else to check it out, because I seriously am not seeing the obvious-town everybody else is. In 2 pages of posts there are only a few (possibly less than 5, even) that offer reads. Most of it is questions about set-up, terminology, theories of the game that aren’t actual expressions of suspicions, and things that aren’t reads. She is the one person in the game that I have seriously no idea what they believe, and that leaves me pinged as all-get-out.

I don't see kitsushel as obvious town. I'm a bit more of a null on her I guess. I feel like she is not used to how we do things here and she's struggling to figure that all out. I believe part of the reason people are town reading her is that they think she is being genuine and that she may be less unsure about everything if she had teammates to help her figure it out.

I’m absolutely in agreement with what Sabie’s saying. It took a day or two, but I think I kinda get how y’all play here and I think it’s kinda wild, lol

Like, how anyone can just automatically throw someone out of a POE for a feeling or vibe kinda blows my mind. I don’t know any of you, and all of you are suspect to me. The only one that’s given me a consistent good feeling is Hally.

If anyone wanted my opinion or feelings, they just had to ask. I offered my insight up before and felt like I got shot down because my playstyle is different than the hive mind here.

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:20 pm So you can’t keep throwing out there that I haven’t “offered any insight”, this my list/ranking atm. Likely town, from top to bottom.

Hally
JJJ
Wisp
Spacedaisy
Sabie
Nutella
Epi
ColinIsCool
Alison
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:17 pm lol...
you are like in between pro-active and reactive in my opinion, doing your own thing, but ultimately it doesn't do much for me at all
but its not like anything you have done has been obviously malicious

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:50 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:12 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:19 am TSP still has not answered my question about his reads

I missed it. Can someone direct me? I’m on my phone, I left my computer elsewhere and due to current deadly viruses haven’t had the opportunity to retrieve it yet.

how is epi "I never bus" gnosis treating me the way he does if I am his scum buddy