Halvøsen Ridge [MAFIA WIN]

[Boquise]

oh no i did not forget Ender. Taking back that yikes

[Boquise]

also Dizzy i usually mostly do micro reads, and that is how I have handled those three players you have said you have issues with.
But out of those, I think my Fingers thing is actually one of the best and more thought-out evaluation I have done in this game tbh

[Boquise]

JJJ looked pretty convinced tbh

I'm not sure what you're referring to. I can't think of a reason off-hand to separate you from fingersplints, but it's not an interaction that I think is specifically problematic.

mmh it felt like in your posts today that you were trying to sell a me/fingers world tbh but maybe i misunderstood you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

anyway lets play with some of the standard probabilities and world buildings tbh

There is a me/Alison/JJJ group
There is a Dizzy/Marmot/Ender/Nate group
There is a Lucy/Fingers/Rondo/Creature group

Regarding where wolves prefer to be, it is in the middle.
There should at least be a wolf inside Dizzy/Marmot/Ender/Nate. I do not think that no wolf has preferred to be inside the middle runners.
There could be 1 power wolf inside JJJ/Alison.

There could also be a wolf in the LHF (why, most of these qualis at MU had a lhf wolf, or low-posting wolf - and before you complain about this Rondo, this game was advertised as "lets see how we fare versus the quali towns).

This is based on world buildings and no reads.
I am currently town reading JJJ. So the power wolf is Alison. But would power wolf Alison willingly lose her grip of the game like this with no resistance? I press X for doubt.
I am also currently town reading Rondo, and Nate too but I think he is being a bit too floaty. I know how you can get traumatised by champ games but like the original drive should always be there. I think Fingers is town too?

Let's pretend I also town read Dizzy for their handling of me.

Anywho, I am left with:
Marmot/Ender
Lucy/Creature.

I should ISO here.

Just bringing this to the new page so I can absorb it while the game moves

[Alison]

Good morning. I apologize for not being around; I had a terrible migraine that made it difficult to focus, and went to bed early in the hopes of recovering from it. I feel better now.

I realize it is only a few hours to EOD, and I am not caught up yet. If someone could fill me in on any major happenings, or ask me any urgent questions they have on their mind, now is the time.

[Boquise]

crap my laptop is running out of battery

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ looked pretty convinced tbh

I'm not sure what you're referring to. I can't think of a reason off-hand to separate you from fingersplints, but it's not an interaction that I think is specifically problematic.

mmh it felt like in your posts today that you were trying to sell a me/fingers world tbh but maybe i misunderstood you

Dizzy asked me about that pairing at one point, so there was a single brief exchange

[Boquise]

how do i unvote

[Boquise]

marmot... 9 pages.

yay

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Good morning. I apologize for not being around; I had a terrible migraine that made it difficult to focus, and went to bed early in the hopes of recovering from it. I feel better now.

I realize it is only a few hours to EOD, and I am not caught up yet. If someone could fill me in on any major happenings, or ask me any urgent questions they have on their mind, now is the time.

Sorry to hear about your migraine that's no bueno.

I've asked a few times about the extent to which you read Day 2 or knew of the goings on around the late poll developments.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

how do i unvote

You can park on the host option temporarily

[Alison]

This vote count looks atrocious. It's three hours to EOD and we have four different wagons with two votes each. I would like some consolidation.

My preference order for these wagons is Ender --> JJJ -> Creature -> myself. I am surprised fingersplints has received no pressure. Was she incredibly townie while I was gone?

[VOTE: EnderWiggin] aubergine

[Dyslexicon]

Good morning. I apologize for not being around; I had a terrible migraine that made it difficult to focus, and went to bed early in the hopes of recovering from it. I feel better now.

I realize it is only a few hours to EOD, and I am not caught up yet. If someone could fill me in on any major happenings, or ask me any urgent questions they have on their mind, now is the time.

So many questions. So much pain.

If Fingers is mafia, why are you not killed, why Sean instead? Can you ISO her? I think she's town.

Which makes your direction this game very questionable.

I've gone insane and my PoE is basically Jay/Marmot/Creature/You, with a side of ? maybe Boq with Jay, but Boq not with you.
Is that insane? I know I'm asking you and you're in it.
I really have a heavy feeling that Jay/Marmot could be two in the scum team, but at the same time I think it's kind of wild that I think this. They are certainly playing well if they are. Wanted to go hunt for past Marmot games. I already feel I should read him well, so it's a bit weird.

If I'm wrong about Ender, everything goes to shit in terms of my reads.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Anywho, I am left with:
Marmot/Ender
Lucy/Creature.

Are these meant to be two pairs specifically, or a general grouping of four? If it's the former, could you expand on the connections?

[Dyslexicon]

This vote count looks atrocious. It's three hours to EOD and we have four different wagons with two votes each. I would like some consolidation.

My preference order for these wagons is Ender --> JJJ -> Creature -> myself. I am surprised fingersplints has received no pressure. Was she incredibly townie while I was gone?

[VOTE: EnderWiggin] aubergine

She did a AtE. You would probably not call it townie.

[Boquise]

[VOTE: NateTheLesser] aubergine

Felt the least impressive so far and was barely touched.

it isnt unusual for scum to vote scum during d1
i actually think in every game i have played, at least 1 wolf have voted another
so no disconnect her tbh

however

Ftr my original wolflean was RondoDimBuckle because in another he waited until the end of day 1 to post and seemed pretty challenging the status quo as opposed to this game where it felt like he was more chill (?).

This shade happens right after the Nate vote. The Nate vote has very little explanation whereas this is more built. I think this disassociates Creature with Rondo if Creature is scum tbh.

[Boquise]

Anywho, I am left with:
Marmot/Ender
Lucy/Creature.

Are these meant to be two pairs specifically, or a general grouping of four? If it's the former, could you expand on the connections?

the latter
Two mid players and two lhf players tbh

[Dyslexicon]

Fleabag

What does that mean?

No, I'm really asking.

There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.

Wat.

That was a complete meme wagon, and Jimmay was never going over in that game.

Whereas here, the suspicion on him is very real.

Do you expect him to perform bad under pressure as mafia more?

Why do you have that feeling, that he's the fallguy? Ender and me have pressured him, Alison to a lesser degree.

I mean, someone who isn't caught up and peaks at the poll doesn't know that

I've already explained it. Boq/jjj/Alison keep getting mentioned as a group, and Jay is taking most of the heat of that group

Boq had taken some.

Alison has taken next to none.


What do you think about that

@Alison I'm getting really bad feels from this whole exchange in regards to Jay/Marmot

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Anywho, I am left with:
Marmot/Ender
Lucy/Creature.

Are these meant to be two pairs specifically, or a general grouping of four? If it's the former, could you expand on the connections?

the latter
Two mid players and two lhf players tbh

thanks for seeing that despite the quote error tbh

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Single most likely town in that group of four @Boquise?

[Boquise]

I feel good about:

Alison
Boquise
Creature
fingersplints
JaggedJimmyJay
MacDougall

Slightly worried those are the most experienced players here though

Ok I might consider adding DrWilgy in

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Boquise]

Single most likely town in that group of four @Boquise?

...maybe Creature?
The post I just quoted.

Would scum!Creature look at the towncore list he just created and be like "oh yeah snap, I forgot to add town!Wilgy. I better do that rn and tell everyone tbh. And then I won't bathe in the glory with saying 'told you so' when Wilgy is eventually flipped"?

[Boquise]

JJJ what did you think of my town case on you

[Alison]

Good morning. I apologize for not being around; I had a terrible migraine that made it difficult to focus, and went to bed early in the hopes of recovering from it. I feel better now.

I realize it is only a few hours to EOD, and I am not caught up yet. If someone could fill me in on any major happenings, or ask me any urgent questions they have on their mind, now is the time.

So many questions. So much pain.

If Fingers is mafia, why are you not killed, why Sean instead? Can you ISO her? I think she's town.

Which makes your direction this game very questionable.

I've gone insane and my PoE is basically Jay/Marmot/Creature/You, with a side of ? maybe Boq with Jay, but Boq not with you.
Is that insane? I know I'm asking you and you're in it.
I really have a heavy feeling that Jay/Marmot could be two in the scum team, but at the same time I think it's kind of wild that I think this. They are certainly playing well if they are. Wanted to go hunt for past Marmot games. I already feel I should read him well, so it's a bit weird.

If I'm wrong about Ender, everything goes to shit in terms of my reads.

You have three hours to ask questions. That should be enough, I think.

Sean was widely trusted, while I was suspected yesterday, and was even a brief candidate for the exe. I don't think wolves ever kill me over Sean there. Also, a mafia finger would have teammates too. I do not think the mafia are basing their entire nightkill strategy around protecting her. I can ISO her, but I am on mobile and this makes it difficult to do a comprehensive post by post. If you have any specific posts from finger that you want me to see, direct me to them.

I'm not a fan of that POE. The only person I don't townread on it is Jay.

What makes you think Jay/Marmot are aligned specifically? And why does the Ender read anchor the rest of yours?

[Dyslexicon]

@Boquise How did you go from null reading Jay the whole game/early game to town reading him now after two town flips? What made you not town read him when many others were, also with meta on him? And what is towny about him now?

[Alison]

This vote count looks atrocious. It's three hours to EOD and we have four different wagons with two votes each. I would like some consolidation.

My preference order for these wagons is Ender --> JJJ -> Creature -> myself. I am surprised fingersplints has received no pressure. Was she incredibly townie while I was gone?

[VOTE: EnderWiggin] aubergine

She did a AtE. You would probably not call it townie.

I think AtE is scummy, yes. Anything else?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Single most likely town in that group of four @Boquise?

...maybe Creature?
The post I just quoted.

Would scum!Creature look at the towncore list he just created and be like "oh yeah snap, I forgot to add town!Wilgy. I better do that rn and tell everyone tbh. And then I won't bathe in the glory with saying 'told you so' when Wilgy is eventually flipped"?

I'm sure I agree with that specific rationale (e.g., one could argue Creature has done a little "told you so" in his own way). I tend to view Creature as more likely town than not though.

[Boquise]

I feel good about:

Alison
Boquise
Creature
fingersplints
JaggedJimmyJay
MacDougall

Slightly worried those are the most experienced players here though

Ok I might consider adding DrWilgy in

if i am reading Fingers and JJJ correctly, this list would consist of 5 townies, including myself.. With only Creature and Alison I dont directly town read atm

[Boquise]

@Boquise How did you go from null reading Jay the whole game/early game to town reading him now after two town flips? What made you not town read him when many others were, also with meta on him? And what is towny about him now?

you should read my jjj town post, it is pretty cute tbh

I was kinda scared to make a read out of JJJ earlier because I felt like I could be pocketed. I did an attempt at D1 and someone, idr who, immediately said "scum JJJ could do that too". So I stopped. I read his posts and kept thinking "this could be written by any alignment". Your post some day ago about how he is emotionally town reading me early and you didnt think he'd do that as scum made me think a bit. Then the read evolved after his and mine interaction tbh

[Boquise]

I kinda want to do Nate the most because he seems pretty under and it feels like he's being forcefully shoved into the townreads list and/or barely evaluated at all. As comparison, I often see myself going from townread to wolfread or viceversa.

i mean i could see this as a scum player who is trying to chainsaw rondo and nate

[Dyslexicon]

What makes you think Jay/Marmot are aligned specifically? And why does the Ender read anchor the rest of yours?

I'm having weird inexplicable creepy feels about Marmot, a player I should town read if he's town. I think he might be out of scum range, but at the same time, I can't shake the suspicion. I also dreamt that I read the thread and was convinced Jay/Marmot was mafia. Yes, this is real. Marmot voted for Jay when me and Ender asked, but imo he's been hedgy about a read there and I felt that he didn't really want to vote there. I was not happy with the way he made it to be a reaction vote when I asked him about it later. He also said Jay is taking a lot of heat, when in fact, it was pretty much just me and Ender. Doesn't seem real. Jay's read on Marmot also feels like it could be on a teammate.

Boq/Jay interaction is also weird. Boq null reading Jay in spite of the thread is something I didn't notice, but it is striking to me now. Then Jay makes a whole case and a scum read on Boq. Boq ends up town reading Jay. Jay votes somewhere else.

Ender is the town read where I have probably made the biggest leap of faith. I don't see anything scummy in his posts really. I don't see who he would be teamed with. He doesn't seem concerned about being caught as scum at all. I just don't think he is. If this is wrong anyway though, my reads would obviously be a lot different.

[Boquise]

Not sure if I am fan of this gamestate

I know I am town and I'm not really sure on falcon being wolf

hmm

[Dyslexicon]

@Boquise How did you go from null reading Jay the whole game/early game to town reading him now after two town flips? What made you not town read him when many others were, also with meta on him? And what is towny about him now?

you should read my jjj town post, it is pretty cute tbh

I was kinda scared to make a read out of JJJ earlier because I felt like I could be pocketed. I did an attempt at D1 and someone, idr who, immediately said "scum JJJ could do that too". So I stopped. I read his posts and kept thinking "this could be written by any alignment". Your post some day ago about how he is emotionally town reading me early and you didnt think he'd do that as scum made me think a bit. Then the read evolved after his and mine interaction tbh

Yeah, I should double check the buddying part.

[Boquise]

when it comes to flipped players, Creature has been 100% correct so far

[Dyslexicon]

Well I’m resisting the strong urge to do a personal/self vote atm; hopefully cooler heads prevail.

Where does this urge come from btw?

frustration and the smug self satisfaction that comes with ultimately proving someone wrong

@Alison Then you probably think this is scummy too. But I don't think it is for Fingers tbh

[Dyslexicon]

Well I’m resisting the strong urge to do a personal/self vote atm; hopefully cooler heads prevail.

Where does this urge come from btw?

frustration and the smug self satisfaction that comes with ultimately proving someone wrong

@Alison Then you probably think this is scummy too. But I don't think it is for Fingers tbh

Because I don't think she cares enough to be dishonest in that way

[Alison]

What does that mean?

No, I'm really asking.

There was a point in Fleabag where Jay took multiple votes at the end of a day phase in the form of a flashwagon. I took the opportunity to support it to make it look like it had some serious momentum, both to gauge Jay's reaction, and to gauge the thread's reaction to seeing him as a wagon.

Jay's reaction at the time I found townie. I already thought he was town (which I was right), so perhaps I had conf-biased myself, but I thought it was a potentially useful exercise nonetheless. I don't remember much else from that event.

Seeing momentum here, I thought it could be useful to try said tactic again. Jay does look like he's had momentum building on him since mid Day 2 or so. I however think he's still performed just fine under that pressure.


Also, as I've said before, I think Jay is turning into the fallguy for the heat being put on the towncore, and I believe that makes it more likely a miss.

Wat.

That was a complete meme wagon, and Jimmay was never going over in that game.

Whereas here, the suspicion on him is very real.

Do you expect him to perform bad under pressure as mafia more?

Why do you have that feeling, that he's the fallguy? Ender and me have pressured him, Alison to a lesser degree.

I mean, someone who isn't caught up and peaks at the poll doesn't know that

I've already explained it. Boq/jjj/Alison keep getting mentioned as a group, and Jay is taking most of the heat of that group

Boq had taken some.

Alison has taken next to none.


What do you think about that

@Alison I'm getting really bad feels from this whole exchange in regards to Jay/Marmot

I see the exchange. I generally think JJJ is one of the less likely players in this game to break down under pressure due to a flashwagon, and I also think it's less likely to happen if he explicitly calls out what he's doing. To that extent, I doubt this is an effective strategy, but insofar as it seems Marmot as tried this as town before, I don't think the act itself is NAI.

I think Boq has take more heat than me, but that's a quibble. I have a bigger concern about the broader idea that the person who takes the most heat out of the three of us is likeliest to be innocent; town has a bigger influence on the thread by definition, and sometimes suspicions are simply right.

However, I do not think that this associates Marmot and Jay. He is adding to the pressure/momentum on his partner, while framing it as being enough of a reaction test that he doesn't get much credit if Jay flips mafia. I would be more inclined to read this interaction as potential TMI-ing Jay town than partners protecting each other; if Marmot simply wants to shield Jay, there are less convoluted ways, I think.

[Dyslexicon]

when it comes to flipped players, Creature has been 100% correct so far

And 0 % on unflipped, if Lucy is town. So... that's yikes tbh

[Boquise]

so either creature has played an accurate game without reading much, or have tmi

[Dyslexicon]

I see the exchange. I generally think JJJ is one of the less likely players in this game to break down under pressure due to a flashwagon, and I also think it's less likely to happen if he explicitly calls out what he's doing. To that extent, I doubt this is an effective strategy, but insofar as it seems Marmot as tried this as town before, I don't think the act itself is NAI.

I think Boq has take more heat than me, but that's a quibble. I have a bigger concern about the broader idea that the person who takes the most heat out of the three of us is likeliest to be innocent; town has a bigger influence on the thread by definition, and sometimes suspicions are simply right.

However, I do not think that this associates Marmot and Jay. He is adding to the pressure/momentum on his partner, while framing it as being enough of a reaction test that he doesn't get much credit if Jay flips mafia. I would be more inclined to read this interaction as potential TMI-ing Jay town than partners protecting each other; if Marmot simply wants to shield Jay, there are less convoluted ways, I think.

I'm more so wondering if Marmot didn't know how to handle the suspicion on Jay. And when I at a later point noted and asked him about why he voted Jay when he clearly didn't want to (which was my words, and not Marmot's), that is when he explains it as pressure. Actually, he just explains it as "fleabag", which was a wildly different situation afaic.

[Boquise]

i really need to sleep

guide my vote, anyone

[Alison]

Well I’m resisting the strong urge to do a personal/self vote atm; hopefully cooler heads prevail.

Where does this urge come from btw?

frustration and the smug self satisfaction that comes with ultimately proving someone wrong

@Alison Then you probably think this is scummy too. But I don't think it is for Fingers tbh

Surprisingly I have mixed feelings about this. The self vote doesn't move me, and I actually think it is a little scummy. The line about smug self satisfaction is not quite AtE in the sense that I use, and I don't think it's scummy. Specifically I think mafia doing AtE are more likely to bitch and moan about how they're being bullied and picked on and how it's making them feel awful. I associate the feeling of smugness from the grave specifically as a town sentiment, because they know their flip will vindicate them, and it's not one that mafia often bothers to replicate.

I don't know if I'd clear her for this. It's pretty easy to fake, especially if she has someone in scum chat coaching her. But I am willing to give her a tentative pass for it.

[Dyslexicon]

My read on Boquise is deeply spiritual. I gleaned it from the garnet crystal I keep next to my bed. Boq and I have a somewhat unique experience to draw from, and it's a single game (champs, season 7, semifinal 3). Boq had less than a good time in that game, and it kind of became a standard bearer for him as a descriptor of his "town self-worth". Just given what happened in that game and the conversations I have had with Boq since, I have a decently developed mental concept of what town Boq ought to look like in our next game. And I think he is starting this one in decent alignment with that mental concept. He seeks to put his turbulence behind him and solve the cot-damned game. At least that's my initial impression.

This is some time after the initial Boq town read, and this is what's been hunting me in thinking that Jay w and Boq v seems weird. Unless "deeply spiritual" is just a way for Jay to shamelessly pocket. It's funny how I have resistant to think it is, when I shamelessly emotionally pocketed Illario in Fleabag. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, and it's just more of a joke, which the second line would imply tbh.

[Boquise]

i am going to take a leap of faith and think creature town

[Dyslexicon]

Well I’m resisting the strong urge to do a personal/self vote atm; hopefully cooler heads prevail.

Where does this urge come from btw?

frustration and the smug self satisfaction that comes with ultimately proving someone wrong

@Alison Then you probably think this is scummy too. But I don't think it is for Fingers tbh

Surprisingly I have mixed feelings about this. The self vote doesn't move me, and I actually think it is a little scummy. The line about smug self satisfaction is not quite AtE in the sense that I use, and I don't think it's scummy. Specifically I think mafia doing AtE are more likely to bitch and moan about how they're being bullied and picked on and how it's making them feel awful. I associate the feeling of smugness from the grave specifically as a town sentiment, because they know their flip will vindicate them, and it's not one that mafia often bothers to replicate.

I don't know if I'd clear her for this. It's pretty easy to fake, especially if she has someone in scum chat coaching her. But I am willing to give her a tentative pass for it.

"Coaching" like this in scum chat rarely happens. It's something players refer to in game, and it really rarely happens ime. I think for Fingers, that she doesn't care enough to win as mafia or to dominate, to do this kind of emotional appeal. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I'm thinking.

My reasoning for thinking Ender is town is actually similar. I just don't believe he is worried at all about being flipped. This is probably more loose and vague for people. I also don't think any of his posts are scummy.

In fact, You, @Creature and @JaggedJimmyJay Can you summarise your case on Ender for me?

[Alison]

i really need to sleep

guide my vote, anyone

Vote Ender or Jay. Whichever one you think is more likely to be a hit.

[Boquise]

Well I’m resisting the strong urge to do a personal/self vote atm; hopefully cooler heads prevail.

Where does this urge come from btw?

frustration and the smug self satisfaction that comes with ultimately proving someone wrong

@Alison Then you probably think this is scummy too. But I don't think it is for Fingers tbh

Surprisingly I have mixed feelings about this. The self vote doesn't move me, and I actually think it is a little scummy. The line about smug self satisfaction is not quite AtE in the sense that I use, and I don't think it's scummy. Specifically I think mafia doing AtE are more likely to bitch and moan about how they're being bullied and picked on and how it's making them feel awful. I associate the feeling of smugness from the grave specifically as a town sentiment, because they know their flip will vindicate them, and it's not one that mafia often bothers to replicate.

I don't know if I'd clear her for this. It's pretty easy to fake, especially if she has someone in scum chat coaching her. But I am willing to give her a tentative pass for it.

yeah...
I can vibe with this tbh

[Boquise]

i really need to sleep

guide my vote, anyone

Vote Ender or Jay. Whichever one you think is more likely to be a hit.

That would be Ender, I finally think I could find JJJ as town tbh

[Boquise]

actually inside Ender's iso atm

[Boquise]

I don't entirely like it.

What's your thoughts on me tbh

Cuter than a cuttlefish.

Oh so I don't make you nervous tbh?

Should you?

Idk tbh, you felt nervous before when we spoke tbh

Uh.

Alright.

Definitely not the impression I had on my emotive state.

Of the people who would actively make me nervous if I was wolf you're behind several names =P (Not a hit on you, but there are people in this game who are semi-familiar with my play and I can't be careless around em.)

who are these players @EnderWiggin