The Syndicate

Dyslexicon wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:Alright. Can we revisit the Golden/Eloh/Fred/JJJ target switch mindfuckery?
Golden said he targeted JJJ, but got Fred as a result.
Golden was probably full of shit, but not so shitty that it could easily be discovered he was lying.
MP says Eloh targeted Golden and Fred and switched them.
Would it be reasonable to assume that Golden tried watching himself?

Of course, MP could be lying too.

Actually it says in Golden's flip that he could not self target. So that means there is some monkey business here.

I can conclude then that Golden was lying.

I can verify that no self-targeting is a thing this game because my role has the same specification.

Dyslexicon wrote:Juliets, that post looks pretty bad for Fred indeed. Will need to come back to this as I really have to go now, I'm already late..

At first glance, I agree that it reeks of TMI, but I'm hesitant to draw any strong conclusion from it.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Something to keep in mind:

If the indy demo-man is the reason Golden and LC were marked, it's possible either or both of those players wasn't his original target. That makes analysis more unfortunately complicated, but perhaps there's a way we can determine the likelihood that this was the case?

Sure there's a way. If you/Elohcin redirected actions for the confirmed markees (Golden and Quin), then it's plausible. You claimed Golden was such a player on N1. Was Quin ever a redirect target of yours?

No.

In the interest of time, since apparently there are various questions I need to answer, for now I'm skimming quickly over anything that isn't a question directed at me.

sprityo wrote:

juliets wrote:MP has 3 stars by his name designating he's asked to be replaced?? Has that been there the whole time? I don't understand...he just got here...

Mp is temporary.

He told me when replacing in that if anyone else were to want to replace in, they may. Not sure if that decision has changed at all

Yes, this is true, thanks sprityo. It's OK though, I can ride this out for the time being, even if my performance is/will continue to be less than ideal.

speedchuck wrote:If there was a busdrive tonight, knowing the results could basically guarantee town victory.
MP, if you could pop in at some point for that one thing, that'd be great.

Okay, sorry for not telling you all previously, I just wasn't sure whether it was strategically sound to just puke all that stuff in the thread.

I targeted:
N4 - JaggedJimmyJay and Dyslexicon
N5 - Fredwood and speedchuck

Currently there is only one vote:

MP07 (1): JJJ

Dyslexicon wrote:

Strawhenge wrote:I know, it's unprovable. And now if there's a night killer they probably won't target me. But there you have it.

I think I believe this claim.
But this also might mean you do get targeted if your suspicions is wrong.
So can we talk about why you suspect me being 3p? Is it just an aura thing, cause I get that a lot. I have a verifiable claim though, but didn't want to get into that before I had to (don't want scum targets to get easy).

However, this claim seems reasonable to me.
And JJJ is confirmed.
So adding me now rather than later is probably better.

I don't, first it's an everynight power role.

Second...it yet again does nothing against Marker, I have a hard time believing that there is only one role built into the game that can affect a marker especially since your vest did nothing against the kill.

Third unverifiable but acting like it is useful, the claim is only useful if you're likely to be NK. He's not been on anybody's radar the entire game. So he's not getting any utility out of the role.

Fourth, aside from the Mafia NK and an odd night vig, there's not enough NK's for it to be of consistent use. This does more to discredit my 1st point, but from a mechanics standpoint it's too passive of a power to reliably impact the game, where every other power to this point has had a direct impact on the game in one way or the other.

Fifth it's too perfect a claim at this point in the game. If he's SK, mafia isn't likely to target him. If he's mafia it doesn't really matter, because nothing can touch him at this point.

I think his best defense is N2 non-target, but it could just as likely be that he's a Marker who missed night two. Then again his targets are only a reflection of consensus rainbow. There is an element of truth to the "I don't know Jack just pinged me day 1", or at least he needs a target that stands out against consensus reads to seem plausible.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

speedchuck wrote:If there was a busdrive tonight, knowing the results could basically guarantee town victory.
MP, if you could pop in at some point for that one thing, that'd be great.

Okay, sorry for not telling you all previously, I just wasn't sure whether it was strategically sound to just puke all that stuff in the thread.

I targeted:
N4 - JaggedJimmyJay and Dyslexicon
N5 - Fredwood and speedchuck

Please explain your rationale for the targets you've chosen.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This is why I asked MP for a clear explanation of the role. I am still not entirely clear. This is what would have to happen:

Golden targets JJJ (which can have been a lie anyway, he may have self-targeted)

Golden gets a result for Fredwood (Eloh targeted Fred)

Thus:

Elohcin targets Golden and redirects his target to Fredwood. This doesn't require my name to exist (or Golden's initial target regardless of whom) in the PM.

Sorry, I didn't realize my explanation was unclear. How I described it earlier is really all I know, and it seemed simple enough. Actions affecting the two players I select are switched.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

speedchuck wrote:If there was a busdrive tonight, knowing the results could basically guarantee town victory.
MP, if you could pop in at some point for that one thing, that'd be great.

Okay, sorry for not telling you all previously, I just wasn't sure whether it was strategically sound to just puke all that stuff in the thread.

I targeted:
N4 - JaggedJimmyJay and Dyslexicon
N5 - Fredwood and speedchuck

Please explain your rationale for the targets you've chosen.

N4 - Trying to protect you in the event you were NKed, I was feeling unsure/tinfoily about Dizzy, so I thought if you were going to get hit with an NK it would be preferred for him to die. I would have perhaps chosen someone else, but I didn't want to pick someone I felt was likely to get NKed either, since then you would die instead.

N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory: MP isn't a bus driver at all (two on one mafia team would be goofy). As a mafia member all he has to do is corroborate what his teammate Golden already said. His role could be anything. He refused to state targets earlier too which immediately rubbed me the wrong way. Golden pulled the same crap.

Vote MovingPictures07

I'm not sure how I can address or refute any of this.

sprityo wrote:I will be gone in one hour, so the day might end on time, might not. If any shenanigans happen, I'm hoping Epi will be able to take care of things while I'm gone.

I will return after midnight (EST)

sprityo wrote: Day ends in 48 hours or at 11pm EST 3/1/2017. THIS IS THE FINAL 48 HOUR DAY! Days will now be 24 hours long starting Day 7.[/size]

(Posting this a little early again tonight, since im tired.)[/color]

Give us the full day please.

Haven't caught up yet, busy, but I was making sure deadline wasn't now-ish

speedchuck wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory: MP isn't a bus driver at all (two on one mafia team would be goofy). As a mafia member all he has to do is corroborate what his teammate Golden already said. His role could be anything. He refused to state targets earlier too which immediately rubbed me the wrong way. Golden pulled the same crap.

Vote MovingPictures07

With a bit of coaching, I could see MP making the moves he made as mafia. The claim and all.

Also, we had pE make a "mistake" regarding Golden's results, forgetting to show the busdriver visit (maybe Golden forgot how busdriver works or something). I'm going to go look at that.

What coaching?

MovingPictures07 wrote:N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.

You've stated your role affects the targets of other players -- it switches one targeted player with another. This means that if you targeted Fredwood and speedchuck on Night 5, as your top demo man suspects, you didn't effect their targeting choices -- you effected their being targeted. How does that work?

Dyslexicon wrote:@Speed, I haven't really felt strong about you being mafia for a long time, and not really at any point in the game. If I were, I'd try harder to get you lynched. I have had suspicion on you, but mostly I've wanted to do some poking and apply some kind of pressure.

Why are you clearing MP btw?

---

I'm not sure I liked how MP roleclaimed. I don't know how he would be cleared.

I'm liking Juliets as town the most.

Fred's answers looks not good on surface levels. Speed's answers looks better. Not sure where I'm at with that.

Straw is kind of forgettable at this point. I don't think he's mafia (?)

If you didn't like how I roleclaimed, why is this the first I'm hearing of it?

If you've suspected me previously for this and I just haven't seen it, accept my apologies.

Agreed @ sprityo: I'd greatly prefer the day last the originally prescribed 48 hours.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.

You've stated your role affects the targets of other players -- it switches one targeted player with another. This means that if you targeted Fredwood and speedchuck on Night 5, as your top demo man suspects, you didn't effect their targeting choices -- you effected their being targeted. How does that work?

Re: bolded/underlined, correct.

fuck, is this really ending soon?

What else do I need to still address?

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.

You've stated your role affects the targets of other players -- it switches one targeted player with another. This means that if you targeted Fredwood and speedchuck on Night 5, as your top demo man suspects, you didn't effect their targeting choices -- you effected their being targeted. How does that work?

Re: bolded/underlined, correct.

How does that benefit you in your attempt to disrupt the demo man?

speedchuck wrote:

sprityo wrote:I will be gone in one hour, so the day might end on time, might not. If any shenanigans happen, I'm hoping Epi will be able to take care of things while I'm gone.

I will return after midnight (EST)

sprityo wrote: Day ends in 48 hours or at 11pm EST 3/1/2017. THIS IS THE FINAL 48 HOUR DAY! Days will now be 24 hours long starting Day 7.[/size]

(Posting this a little early again tonight, since im tired.)[/color]

Give us the full day please.

Haven't caught up yet, busy, but I was making sure deadline wasn't now-ish

sprityo, it's not March 1st tonight!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.

You've stated your role affects the targets of other players -- it switches one targeted player with another. This means that if you targeted Fredwood and speedchuck on Night 5, as your top demo man suspects, you didn't effect their targeting choices -- you effected their being targeted. How does that work?

Re: bolded/underlined, correct.

How does that benefit you in your attempt to disrupt the demo man?

I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

speedchuck wrote:

sprityo wrote:I will be gone in one hour, so the day might end on time, might not. If any shenanigans happen, I'm hoping Epi will be able to take care of things while I'm gone.

I will return after midnight (EST)

sprityo wrote: Day ends in 48 hours or at 11pm EST 3/1/2017. THIS IS THE FINAL 48 HOUR DAY! Days will now be 24 hours long starting Day 7.[/size]

(Posting this a little early again tonight, since im tired.)[/color]

Give us the full day please.

Haven't caught up yet, busy, but I was making sure deadline wasn't now-ish

sprityo, it's not March 1st tonight!

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

speedchuck wrote:

sprityo wrote:I will be gone in one hour, so the day might end on time, might not. If any shenanigans happen, I'm hoping Epi will be able to take care of things while I'm gone.

I will return after midnight (EST)

sprityo wrote: Day ends in 48 hours or at 11pm EST 3/1/2017. THIS IS THE FINAL 48 HOUR DAY! Days will now be 24 hours long starting Day 7.[/size]

(Posting this a little early again tonight, since im tired.)[/color]

Give us the full day please.

Haven't caught up yet, busy, but I was making sure deadline wasn't now-ish

sprityo, it's not March 1st tonight!

How dull

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

You are emotionless right now in the face of heave scrutiny. Why?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

You are emotionless right now in the face of heave scrutiny. Why?

I wouldn't say I'm emotionless. Feeling a bit helpless and disappointed in myself, but I'm doing better than a complete lurker would have done if sprityo still wouldn't have found another replacement.

I haven't invested myself much in this game; I can't afford to.

sprityo wrote:its only the third major mistake I've made all game. Thanks JJJ, I was panicking for no reason again

26 hours remain in the day

Oh, thank goodness.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

You are emotionless right now in the face of heave scrutiny. Why?

I wouldn't say I'm emotionless. Feeling a bit helpless and disappointed in myself, but I'm doing better than a complete lurker would have done if sprityo still wouldn't have found another replacement.

I haven't invested myself much in this game; I can't afford to.

The game may well be on the line with this lynch. If you're the wrong choice it could be a disaster. Gun to your head, who here is not a civilian and how are their alignments arranged?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

You are emotionless right now in the face of heave scrutiny. Why?

I wouldn't say I'm emotionless. Feeling a bit helpless and disappointed in myself, but I'm doing better than a complete lurker would have done if sprityo still wouldn't have found another replacement.

I haven't invested myself much in this game; I can't afford to.

The game may well be on the line with this lynch. If you're the wrong choice it could be a disaster. Gun to your head, who here is not a civilian and how are their alignments arranged?

I understand that; I just don't know what I can do. I don't have any remotely informed reads whatsoever.

I would guess Fred, Dizzy, and speedchuck are the most likely non-town players left, in that order.

I'm skeptical there's another mafia alive, but I don't know how to explain the Scotty kill. I think Fred is most likely our demo man just because he's spewing TMI and his behavior has been, from what I've been able to surmise, very much fitting the role of needing to stay under the radar and out of everyone's way. Something's still bugging me a bit about Dizzy and I'm not sure why. I'm not sure how Dizzy's behavior would be LMS-friendly though unless he's just insane like I am. I would say he's our last mafia member if we have one. Probably serious tinfoil, I know. I can't explain it. I just don't like how he seems willing to push me as a suspect, among other things -- he seems too eager to throw anyone under for lynch today from what I gathered in my skim anyway. And speedchuck sounds sincere to me, but you all seem to legitimately suspect him for what seem like solid reasons, so I guess it makes him the third candidate.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Fredwood wrote:It's game mechanics, early game Marker needs Mafia to help whittle down numbers, later game they want mafia dead once the numbers dwindle. I don't think they were at that point yet, especially if the Mafia kill targets continued the way they did, unless they felt that they could possibly be in a position to be killed (meaning solidly read town)

A few things:

~ The marker doesn't know who is mafia and who isn't, so their marking behavior isn't going to be infallibly aligned with the strategy you're presenting.

~ The marker likely wasn't limited to just two marks, as evidenced by Jack's preventive role and the passage of four night phases prior to the explosion.

~ This is all pretty speculative anyway, as our attempts to judge the desired strategy of an independent marker are inhibited by the fact that we simply don't have that role (those of us who are not guilty at least).

If not you, then who?

I don't mean specific mafia, I mean the mafia in general, specifically the Mafia kill. At that time there had to be reasonable expectation that they would at least serverly hamper the Mafia, as it was they basically ensured 3 mafia deaths in one phase.

Jack's existence doesn't make the Quin targeting make anymore sense in context. If they marked Nut or you, then yes, it reduced the amount of kills they got, but it doesn't explain to me the logic in removing Quin because his existence was buying them time.

If not me:

POE:
JJJ: confirmed townie

Not marker:
MP07: I didn't die, Jack didn't remove a mark, so MP07 can't be the marker

The eh tier could go either way:
Juliets - had information, granted not any that was ultimately, but I don't see anyone making an information claim without being able to verify it, or having a very good cover. Could the marker be able to get information (shrug) highly doubtful, but maybe remotely possible.

Dys: Gave out a vest, that didn't stop a blast, and one that could have just as easily come from his teammate. Has had strong cred entire game ensuring lynches. Just like how a marker needs the Mafia NK to whittle numbers, they'd also need the lynch.

By POE that leaves:
Straw
Speed

I've already spoken to Straw's claim, nothing Speed has said to this point has cleared him, he's kind of in the same boat as I am. Except he has a little more lynch cred, which again I don't see as proof that he's not SK, because the SK needs the lynch to reliably fire.

Likely, my best defense in my eyes, is probably one of the reasons I'm viewed as a suspect, being a careful lyncher does not help me in anyway if I'm the neutral killer. Though if I may play devil's advocate to my own defense, there does not appear to be any hesitation to lynch here anyway, and I would have been on the Soneji lynch to my own admission, which would have been the only day there was a chance of a no lynch.

Did I miss anything?

I'll try to go back and read a bit more of the end of the thread now, but I'll have to soon. I'm getting tired. My body is fully accustomed to old man sleeping times these days.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.

You've stated your role affects the targets of other players -- it switches one targeted player with another. This means that if you targeted Fredwood and speedchuck on Night 5, as your top demo man suspects, you didn't effect their targeting choices -- you effected their being targeted. How does that work?

Re: bolded/underlined, correct.

How does that benefit you in your attempt to disrupt the demo man?

I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

You could have taken a mark of a safe player and put it onto a suspicious player. (like you did N4)

N5 you targeted two of the best suspects for the marker and swapped them. If one of us is the marker, we're not going to target ourselves, and the chance that we'd target the other is slim.

Fredwood wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:N5 - Two best guesses for the demo man... wasn't really sure how to use my power last night effectively though.

You've stated your role affects the targets of other players -- it switches one targeted player with another. This means that if you targeted Fredwood and speedchuck on Night 5, as your top demo man suspects, you didn't effect their targeting choices -- you effected their being targeted. How does that work?

Re: bolded/underlined, correct.

How does that benefit you in your attempt to disrupt the demo man?

I don't know, it doesn't really. I'm not sure my power could have accomplished anything fruitful last night.

You could have taken a mark of a safe player and put it onto a suspicious player. (like you did N4)

N5 you targeted two of the best suspects for the marker and swapped them. If one of us is the marker, we're not going to target ourselves, and the chance that we'd target the other is slim.

Yeah, I guess I just wasn't sure what a "safe" player really was except for JJJ, and I didn't want to fuck anything up.

Upon reflection I wouldn't have sent in those targets again, but oh well.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Upon reflection I wouldn't have sent in those targets again, but oh well.

Who would you choose instead given another chance?

Meow.

Always kill MP.

Vote MP

Will be back after sleep and read more and say more things.

My tinfoil on Dizzy is real. Maybe it's just because he seemed to latch quickly onto the tides of suspecting me suddenly... and I say this as someone who HATES the buddying accusation, but Dizzy is buddying Jay really hard in this conversation.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p342459
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p342487

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Upon reflection I wouldn't have sent in those targets again, but oh well.

Who would you choose instead given another chance?

juliets as my "safe" target, speedchuck as the suspicious target (since I couldn't double target Dizzy) -- with the train of thought that Fred is most likely the demo man and thus targeting him makes no sense.

If juliets is mafia, I'll be floored the way I was floored when Golden won Economics.

MovingPictures07 wrote:If juliets is mafia, I'll be floored the way I was floored when Golden won Economics.

I should say non-town, since even a juliets 3p seems extraordinary. I don't think so.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Upon reflection I wouldn't have sent in those targets again, but oh well.

My issue with with Swapping Dys and JJJ is that as one of the higher up on the list Dys is a candidate for NK or marking.

MovingPictures07 wrote:My tinfoil on Dizzy is real. Maybe it's just because he seemed to latch quickly onto the tides of suspecting me suddenly... and I say this as someone who HATES the buddying accusation, but Dizzy is buddying Jay really hard in this conversation.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p342459
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p342487

JJJ is buddying me too. It's real love. I can be the un-gendered mom to his fatherly glare. Don't break up this happy family.
Anyway, if anything I've tried to reduce suspects today.
Also, not a chance in hell I'm mafia. I don't think you'd say that if you had read the whole game.
I'll read more carefully the stuff that you've put out here and respond and meditate, but I need sleep now too.

This is in response to juliets below and also in response to concerns expressed by Jay and Dizzy

juliets wrote:

Dyslexicon wrote:Oh, I thought Juliets brought it up to clear MP, but seems I misunderstood?

Right, I wasn't trying to clear him I was saying that was suspicious behavior. I think you're right, if he's bad he did get with his teammates ahead of time and thats why he was comfortable claiming so quickly. He would have known the issue about Golden's targets needed to be cleared up.

How is it suspicious? I clearly laid out my train of thought in spam-like posts in those 11 minutes, agonizing over whether to claim after quickly getting acclimated to the game, and then deciding to just throw caution to the wind and claim because I felt it would give helpful town-friendly information to the thread (i.e., assist with trying to figure out wtf was going on with Golden's n1 stuff).

I hesitated this time because I felt I had a serious reason not to throw out my targets in the presence of a lone mafia member and given the discussion of Jay still being alive.

Fredwood wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Upon reflection I wouldn't have sent in those targets again, but oh well.

My issue with with Swapping Dys and JJJ is that as one of the higher up on the list Dys is a candidate for NK or marking.

Yeah, maybe. I didn't really think that one through 100% to be honest. I don't think I realized how trusted Dizzy was at the time.

Dyslexicon wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:My tinfoil on Dizzy is real. Maybe it's just because he seemed to latch quickly onto the tides of suspecting me suddenly... and I say this as someone who HATES the buddying accusation, but Dizzy is buddying Jay really hard in this conversation.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p342459
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p342487

JJJ is buddying me too. It's real love. I can be the un-gendered mom to his fatherly glare. Don't break up this happy family.
Anyway, if anything I've tried to reduce suspects today.
Also, not a chance in hell I'm mafia. I don't think you'd say that if you had read the whole game.
I'll read more carefully the stuff that you've put out here and respond and meditate, but I need sleep now too.

Well, to be fair to you, I haven't.

What's the most convincing point in your favor here? Maybe you can link me to something that would completely change my mind. Because my working knowledge of the thread has been due to surmising context from you all during barely reading anything before my entry to the game and skimming throughout my brief presences since replacing.