The Syndicate

I'll do a full reread later today, but for now I've got voting analysis at least. (Forgive me if I retread old stuff, it's new to me)

First, Dom's death: he wasn't in the lead on that vote, so either we have vote manipulations in play
(I would guess that the coffee might be a vote bonus?), or hammett decided to switch the lynch at him.
Since I can't see any reason for him to do that (knowing the TH was Nora), I think the former is more likely.
Not that that gets us anything useful yet.

Kate, FH, and Hedge almost got Dom the first day.
Since Hedge was the last to vote for Dom, and the vote ended up tied,
I think we can safely assume that Hedge is at least not on Dom's team.
I'm a bit surprised she's still alive, but I suppose killing Kate was almost as logical.

Dom jumped on Lizzy's self-bandwagon *really* early in the votes on day 1.
if she's bad, that's a strange move, but not indefensible I suppose -
people do tend to avoid jumping on an established bandwagon that early in the game.
It seems like a terrible move on Dom's part though, either way;
I'm assuming that's part of what got him lynched the next day.

Timmer, as the last vote for FH the day Dom *didn't* get lynched, obviously has my attention.
I don't vote for people that can't defend themselves unless I'm sure though, so I'll bring him back up tomorrow.

K4J got a second vote for dom in before the TH train really got going day 2, so he seems likely to not be a teammate as well.
Though I admit I don't yet understand why everyone voted for TH yesterday..
I reread that day, and I still don't see very much supporting logic.
I wish Timmer weren't silenced - he's on the TH voter list too, which makes him my best suspect by far :-\

I noticed that the discussion has centered around "civ" and "baddie" - do we have some reason to believe the indies to be civ-aligned?
They seem to have at least a few kills at their disposal, so I have trouble believing that they're 'win with anyone' independents..

This is great thanks! What are your thoughts on SVS and Roxy based on votes? Besides Timmer they arè ones Id look at too. I would also rather wait to vote Timmer tomorrow, but it would be worthwhile to reread him as well. Despite SVS's thoûght that its convenient for Timmer to be silenced it was due to the Hays Code, a game mechanic, not a specific role, so I don't fault him for that.

Hosts - was Timmer silenced due to his use of profanity and the Hays Code prohibition?

Also, coffee does not do what you think, but vote manipulation seems the obvious choice. James T. Vote counts as 0 and Dashiell can switch a lynch, so those may also be something to consider and one you mentioned. Also, Bruno, a baddie, can force two people to target each other, so that may also come into play in the votes.

Sorry TH I did trust my suspicion I am sorry I was wrong.

Hedge care to elaborate?

K4J I play the same every where. I tend to be more involved on Ksite bc of the amount of posting you all do. I will. put suspicions out if I am suspicious and I do it every game from the beginning.

Nevinera wrote:I'll do a full reread later today, but for now I've got voting analysis at least. (Forgive me if I retread old stuff, it's new to me)

First, Dom's death: he wasn't in the lead on that vote, so either we have vote manipulations in play
(I would guess that the coffee might be a vote bonus?), or hammett decided to switch the lynch at him.
Since I can't see any reason for him to do that (knowing the TH was Nora), I think the former is more likely.
Not that that gets us anything useful yet.

Kate, FH, and Hedge almost got Dom the first day.
Since Hedge was the last to vote for Dom, and the vote ended up tied,
I think we can safely assume that Hedge is at least not on Dom's team.
I'm a bit surprised she's still alive, but I suppose killing Kate was almost as logical.

Dom jumped on Lizzy's self-bandwagon *really* early in the votes on day 1.
if she's bad, that's a strange move, but not indefensible I suppose -
people do tend to avoid jumping on an established bandwagon that early in the game.
It seems like a terrible move on Dom's part though, either way;
I'm assuming that's part of what got him lynched the next day.

Timmer, as the last vote for FH the day Dom *didn't* get lynched, obviously has my attention.
I don't vote for people that can't defend themselves unless I'm sure though, so I'll bring him back up tomorrow.

K4J got a second vote for dom in before the TH train really got going day 2, so he seems likely to not be a teammate as well.
Though I admit I don't yet understand why everyone voted for TH yesterday..
I reread that day, and I still don't see very much supporting logic.
I wish Timmer weren't silenced - he's on the TH voter list too, which makes him my best suspect by far :-\

I noticed that the discussion has centered around "civ" and "baddie" - do we have some reason to believe the indies to be civ-aligned?
They seem to have at least a few kills at their disposal, so I have trouble believing that they're 'win with anyone' independents..

This is great thanks! What are your thoughts on SVS and Roxy based on votes? Besides Timmer they arè ones Id look at too. I would also rather wait to vote Timmer tomorrow, but it would be worthwhile to reread him as well. Despite SVS's thoûght that its convenient for Timmer to be silenced it was due to the Hays Code, a game mechanic, not a specific role, so I don't fault him for that.

Hosts - was Timmer silenced due to his use of profanity and the Hays Code prohibition?

Also, coffee does not do what you think, but vote manipulation seems the obvious choice. James T. Vote counts as 0 and Dashiell can switch a lynch, so those may also be something to consider and one you mentioned. Also, Bruno, a baddie, can force two people to target each other, so that may also come into play in the votes.

Okay! Let's try that again. That was a Film Noir-style madcap gaffe by Yours Truly if I've ever seen one.

To answer Hedge's Question in RE: Timmer's silencing:

Yes, he was. Any violation of the Hays Code suffices though, including taking the Lord's name in vain or talk about vulgar or indecent topics.

However, the Hays Code is not currently in effect, so you are all free to be as sordid as you please.

My above post was the original.

Well Jesus Christ and Goddamn that was tricky to copy paste. (I feel so rebellious right now in Hays code-free world).

Roxy wrote:Sorry TH I did trust my suspicion I am sorry I was wrong.

Hedge care to elaborate?

K4J I play the same every where. I tend to be more involved on Ksite bc of the amount of posting you all do. I will. put suspicions out if I am suspicious and I do it every game from the beginning.

Ok thanks for the feedback.
So do you still think timmer is good?

Hedgeowl wrote:This is great thanks! What are your thoughts on SVS and Roxy based on votes? Besides Timmer they arè ones Id look at too. I would also rather wait to vote Timmer tomorrow, but it would be worthwhile to reread him as well. Despite SVS's thoûght that its convenient for Timmer to be silenced it was due to the Hays Code, a game mechanic, not a specific role, so I don't fault him for that.

I don't think Timmer could have predicted a silencing effect from the violation, so it probably wasn't intentional.

SVS and Roxy both voted for TH on day 3. Roxy was his first vote, so I can't call it a bandwagon or anything at that point.
Roxy also voted TH the day before, when he was the alternative to Dom, and in fact was the vote that ostensibly tied it up.
Seems like a risky move for a baddie, but I don't know how Roxy plays; I could certainly see a bit of a case there.

kneel4justice wrote:

Roxy wrote:Sorry TH I did trust my suspicion I am sorry I was wrong.

Hedge care to elaborate?

K4J I play the same every where. I tend to be more involved on Ksite bc of the amount of posting you all do. I will. put suspicions out if I am suspicious and I do it every game from the beginning.

Ok thanks for the feedback.
So do you still think timmer is good?

Yes, he has done nothing to make me think I am wrong.

Hedge, do you have any other thoughts about Roxy?

I think I'm going to vote that way, based on her D2 vote to save Dom.
It seems like a risky move for her to make, but it's a lot less risky in a speed game than it would be in a full one.
If it worked, she'd save a teammate, get a civ lynched, and it wouldn't cost her *anything* until Dom died,
at which point she's got suspicion aimed her way, but no certainty.

And I haven't got much else to vote on, honestly.

Heh! silencing for cursing! I'm not sure what to think of Timmer. I haven't played too many games with him, but we've been baddie teammates in AG and despite not being very active he was pretty much all over the place, like here. In the Champs game, he was certainly more organised and made a lot more sense. Sooo... maybe he's an indie?

Anyway, I'll stick with SVS. Trying to manipulate me with niceness and being extremely cool and calculated about it... Buddying up to me indirectly by labeling me very early in the game...

I'm trying not to look at people's voting records though. Some might jump to help their teammates, others throw them under the bus without blinking to gain credibility (myself )

I'm also voting SVS (for obvious reasons).

I'm not sure I'll get back to this tonight, so I'm going to go ahead and vote for Roxy.
I still don't understand the case on SVS - is this anything other than VAL randomness?

I guess. Not sure why Lizzy suspects me, she never really said. If she thinks i am bad, she is wrong.

Nevinera wrote:Hedge, do you have any other thoughts about Roxy?

I think I'm going to vote that way, based on her D2 vote to save Dom.
It seems like a risky move for her to make, but it's a lot less risky in a speed game than it would be in a full one.
If it worked, she'd save a teammate, get a civ lynched, and it wouldn't cost her *anything* until Dom died,
at which point she's got suspicion aimed her way, but no certainty.

And I haven't got much else to vote on, honestly.

I am never one to save or not teamies. I get that this is a speed game and you just replaced but you are wrong about me Nev. I wish you could at the very least have waited for me to respond before voting.

Very little from Hedge to even respond to and I am given no time to respond before Nev voted.
I have no idea what to think tbqh!

Be back later too, but the case on SVS would be similar to others in that she never voted for Dom and her Day 1 vote timing looks suspicious to me. She was getting heat from Epi and then TH and then suddenly I feel like it was dropped. I need to reread earlier to remind myself. My suspicions on Roxy come up because of Timmer partly, but she's very openly defending him which gives me pause. Plus her vote history isn't doing her any favors in this game. Which is of course annoying because it is hard to defend against whether civ or baddie.

I will vote either Roxy or SVS probably, but be back and hopefully have more time later.

hedge your voting record is nothing to shout about lol
Sorry TH pinged me more than Dom. I talked that day about TH I waited all day for a response he never said anything until after the lynch. I just didn't get the Dom suspicion

You do need to reread. the reason suspicion was dropped on me was that the people who check stuff did so, tbh. I have nothing to hide, and a lynch of me is a distraction from a lynch of a reall baddie, which i am not

I will defend timmer or accuse accordingly every game no matter my alignment.
So it should give you paws lol

Roxy I was talking to Hedge, i missed your linki

Roxy wrote:hedge your voting record is nothing to shout about lol
Sorry TH pinged me more than Dom. I talked that day about TH I waited all day for a response he never said anything until after the lynch. I just didn't get the Dom suspicion

This reponse doesnt make me feel any better about you. you basically "no u" to my point ping out you didnt vote either day for the 1 baddie we have lynched. Its only day 4 so we dont have a lot to go on, but there it is. I voted for Dom, you and SVS didnt. Fact. No accusation needed. Others also didnt, but looking at the timing of when you both voted it makes me look more at you both.

Bbl.

SVS I know you were talking to Hedge so was I

hedge so its I am bad bc I didn't vote Dom hahha this is almost comical. Why should I have jumped on a bandwagon I hadn't even discussed? is it kk that everyone just bandwagons on vote bc a baddie was lynched? Hindsight is always 20/20 isn't it? Really great logic.

also it was not a no u. I defended after I showed you how your suspicion was faulty. I believe you helped lynch a civ. as well. Sorry if the truth doesn't support your case

I voted for the voopinator to throw people off of VAL's tracks.

Roxy wrote:SVS I know you were talking to Hedge so was I

hedge so its I am bad bc I didn't vote Dom hahha this is almost comical. Why should I have jumped on a bandwagon I hadn't even discussed? is it kk that everyone just bandwagons on vote bc a baddie was lynched? Hindsight is always 20/20 isn't it? Really great logic.

I don't think your bad just because you didn't vote Dom. as I stated above in my post, others also didnt vote Dom, but baesd on that and the timing of your votes I think you are a good candidate along with SVs and Timmer.

I actually don't understand entirely what your accusing of being faulty logic. Making fun of me and my logic doesn't make me think you are civ, so I'd try a different tactic. It makes you look like a defensive baddie even if you are not.

Who are you thinking of voting today? I am curious. So far all I hear is defense but no offensive strategy.

A Person wrote:I voted for the voopinator to throw people off of VAL's tracks.

Roxy wrote:

Nevinera wrote:Hedge, do you have any other thoughts about Roxy?

I think I'm going to vote that way, based on her D2 vote to save Dom.
It seems like a risky move for her to make, but it's a lot less risky in a speed game than it would be in a full one.
If it worked, she'd save a teammate, get a civ lynched, and it wouldn't cost her *anything* until Dom died,
at which point she's got suspicion aimed her way, but no certainty.

And I haven't got much else to vote on, honestly.

I am never one to save or not teamies. I get that this is a speed game and you just replaced but you are wrong about me Nev. I wish you could at the very least have waited for me to respond before voting.

Very little from Hedge to even respond to and I am given no time to respond before Nev voted.
I have no idea what to think tbqh!

Ok, I went back over the day and you responded to k4j's question at 3:45, but not Nev's thoughts on your votes which he posted at 2pm. He then furthered explained his thoughts at 5pm, waited till 5:50 and then voted, with no response from you until 6:30 as quoted above. You then state he gave you no time to respond, but it was 4 1/2 hours in which you responded to k4j, but not Nev. Now I was out a lot today too, so I am not blaming you for not having time at all. what makes me curious is that instead of actually responding to Nev you say you wish he had waited. What is your response to Nev then?

kneel4justice wrote:Hedgie, what happened to suspecting me for voting for FH?

I had more time to go over votes and reread today, and Nevs points about your vote for Dom on Day 2 swayed me more to you being civ. I really wish Timmer could talk today, because after yesterday I would like to vote him. Since TH flipped civ and Timmer seemed to jump on building a case against you, and now his vote for you I don't have sting baddie suspicions of you.

I completely understand your thoughts on SVS, but just reread her and got the sense that she was civ. to each their own.

I am going to go ahead and vote for Roxy.

thellama73 wrote:Effective immediately, bea is replacing Metalmarsh89. She cannot be targeted tonight or lynched tomorrow.

woot - working on catsup now.

Any helpful summaries anyone feels like givin' a sista would be appriciated.

Their numbers getting thin, the detectives fled the smoke-filled room through the only door they could find.

At once, they were hit in the face by a blast of cold air as they found themselves outside in a darkened alley.

Far in the distance, a streetlight pointed the way back to the main drag, but that seemed a whole world away from the narrow gap between the buildings in which they now stood, reeling from the gruesome deaths they had just witnessed.

"Whodunnit?" exclaimed A Person.

"Musta been a dame. Dames is tricksy like that," snarled kneel4justice.

"But which one?" queried Vompatti.

"Not me!" insisted Hedgeowl.

"Then it must have been Roxy or S~V~S," said Nevinera, logically.

"Or me!" said Lizzy.

"Quiet, you," said bea. "I just got here."

Timmer, of course, said nothing.

The mob descended on the pair as one, and the ladies screamed in horror at what was sure to be their inevitable fate.

Roxy has been lynched. She was Bruno Anthony. You have 24 hours to send in your PMs.

Bonus question: The image above comes from one of my favorite noir films. Be the first to name it for a prize.

Well, I am so sorry hosts, about missing that vote, I am lame

Woo! That helps our odds a lot - the numbers were starting to look a bit grim there.
Further cements my trust of hedge too, not that I had any real doubts.

I'm in the ER for kidney stones, and my pain meds are AMAZING. Sure makes me glad I voted early, I was in no shape for thinking when the poll closed. So if I seem not to makes sense tonight, I apologize, but not sincerely :-D

Damn, I trusted him :-(
Rip, sir. Pretty sure you were good.

Hedgeowl wrote:

Bummer! Thanks for the good times Mongoose and llama!
Go baddies go!!!

Nevinera wrote:Damn, I trusted him :-(
Rip, sir. Pretty sure you were good.

I don't know, I kind of thought the opposite.

S~V~S wrote:

Nevinera wrote:Damn, I trusted him :-(
Rip, sir. Pretty sure you were good.

I don't know, I kind of thought the opposite.

I am just surprised Billy used his one time kill on him. Makes me wonder if the indies have a win condition that required someone specific dead. Seems weird to have a kill otherwise.

I was feeling civ on him as well at this point, but his vote on SVS didnt look that way.

Roxy- I was shocked to be right. That doesnt happen to me too often since i am way too trusting usually.

You were right about Dom too, don't sell yourself short.

S~V~S wrote:

Nevinera wrote:Damn, I trusted him :-(
Rip, sir. Pretty sure you were good.

I don't know, I kind of thought the opposite.

He pinned the final vote on Dom, which is the type of evidence I trust most.
I thought he might be Indy, but they used their one kill on him, so that seems unlikely now.

You and I have radically different approaches to assigning trust in this game, of course.
By the numbers, he was probably a civ - otherwise he was playing some high-risk games with his teammates.
Not impossible, of course, and I'd never treat it as *proof*.. But still solid evidence of civness IMO.

Off meds - stone cleared, thank god. Very little sleep however.

Nevinera wrote:

S~V~S wrote:

Nevinera wrote:Damn, I trusted him :-(
Rip, sir. Pretty sure you were good.

I don't know, I kind of thought the opposite.

He pinned the final vote on Dom, which is the type of evidence I trust most.
I thought he might be Indy, but they used their one kill on him, so that seems unlikely now.

You and I have radically different approaches to assigning trust in this game, of course.
By the numbers, he was probably a civ - otherwise he was playing some high-risk games with his teammates.
Not impossible, of course, and I'd never treat it as *proof*.. But still solid evidence of civness IMO.

Off meds - stone cleared, thank god. Very little sleep however.

Omg nev. I completely overlooked your comments about kidney stones! So glad you are feeling better. They are the worst! My mom got this off and on for a while. I've heard the pain is a good approximation of child birth, soo...there ya go. Sleep tonight hopefully!