The Syndicate

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:47 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:45 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:45 pm Especially because the wagon grew no further. Town Lilypetal with s-tier SPF and s-tier Aro and Tilg voting on them would have lured wolf votes.

Imo that vote is either Tilgarial's vote themselves or there is not one ergo Lily is mafia.

but why would lily's wagon grow, there was;t much of a reason to go there
they were like a 5 poster at that point in time weren't they, SPF had the one small case on them
and Aro and Tilg just kinda hopped on

Why would wolves in the early game not take the opportunity to vote a townie with 3 votes on them including Aro and SPF's?

They almost always do. It's a known pattern.

Be a wolf... need to generate some content. Lily is under pressure and looks like crap and three town are voting there. Easy vote to make and place to push. It's compulsive.

If it wasn't Tilg that did it, then it not happening is a bad look for Lily.

You can make the argument "not necessarily" and I would agree. But making mafia reads isn't about red checks it's about chopping the most probable wolves.

Mac I am not gonna talk to you about anything related to the legacy debate and you will just have to deal with that. There's nothing more you can do to me that you aren't already doing so I see no reason to engage with you when you are this wrong.

I will happily clarify other people's doubts about it but I will not speak to you. Speak to them and market your case on me to them if you wish to sway their minds.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:50 pm Mac I am not gonna talk to you about anything related to the legacy debate and you will just have to deal with that. There's nothing more you can do to me that you aren't already doing so I see no reason to engage with you when you are this wrong.

I will happily clarify other people's doubts about it but I will not speak to you. Speak to them and market your case on me to them if you wish to sway their minds.

I am happy to talk to you about other stuff though.

I love it when I make irrefutable points based on objective facts and get made out to be a lunatic. It's my favourite part of mafia lol.

I agree that there is likely a wolf between Tilg and Lily given your argument and I think it is more likely Tilg.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:52 pm I love it when I make irrefutable points based on objective facts and get made out to be a lunatic. It's my favourite part of mafia lol.

I enjoy gaslighting people as both alignments.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:49 pm

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:47 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:45 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:45 pm Especially because the wagon grew no further. Town Lilypetal with s-tier SPF and s-tier Aro and Tilg voting on them would have lured wolf votes.

Imo that vote is either Tilgarial's vote themselves or there is not one ergo Lily is mafia.

but why would lily's wagon grow, there was;t much of a reason to go there
they were like a 5 poster at that point in time weren't they, SPF had the one small case on them
and Aro and Tilg just kinda hopped on

Why would wolves in the early game not take the opportunity to vote a townie with 3 votes on them including Aro and SPF's?

They almost always do. It's a known pattern.

I guess? I dont particularly look for patterns, but 3 feels to small to assume one has to be a wolf, but tilgarial is like the only option in that case lol
I really dont want to think that means anything right now

or maybe im just tilted in Santy/Lily worlds which would mean I gave two of my stash items to wolves

Alison's Made Up Logic for Why I am Town Summarized

Alison thinks I am 3P. Alison doesn't think I am mafia.
I came into today hard on Alison. I was hard on Ender yesterday.
Alison thinks specifically I am an executioner.
I sheep Illario on the Rodo vote thinking day ended today.
Alison thinks that Rodo is my execution target.
Alison thinks that execution target isn't mafia. Therefore if Rodo flips town, I am town.

I want everyone to read this!!! It. Is. Not. Real. If Alison really thought I was an executioner, she wouldn't think my target was for sure some rando player I sheep voted on. So strongly believe that, that if that person flipped town, her suspicion of me being executioner would dissolve. Especially because there are more viable targets of a cham!Executioner, say the people I've actually been going hard on to eliminate: Alison & Ender!

@MacDougall @ilario @EnderWiggin @dyachei @Tilgarial @Belzy

So let us say Porscha, Belzy, Tilgarial are all mafia. And let us say Aro and Wisp are town.

D1 was extremely bad and we moved off a mafia to wagon two villas. Therefore the mafia maliciously shifted the gamestate to target us.

Porscha/Belzy/Tilgarial all lowposted D1 and had low impact. I don't believe they are candidates for being the ones behind the sabotage.

Therefore there must be a mafia who had high influence D1. I know it is not me and you'll also know it is not me in 24 hours. Who is it? My top suspect is Santy. If you think it's not Santy then talk about your suspects for this role. I don't really think dya fits the high impact sabotager archetype. Perhaps Ender.

Chamomile wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:55 pm Alison's Made Up Logic for Why I am Town Summarized

Alison thinks I am 3P. Alison doesn't think I am mafia.
I came into today hard on Alison. I was hard on Ender yesterday.
Alison thinks specifically I am an executioner.
I sheep Illario on the Rodo vote thinking day ended today.
Alison thinks that Rodo is my execution target.
Alison thinks that execution target isn't mafia. Therefore if Rodo flips town, I am town.

I want everyone to read this!!! It. Is. Not. Real. If Alison really thought I was an executioner, she wouldn't think my target was for sure some rando player I sheep voted on. So strongly believe that, that if that person flipped town, her suspicion of me being executioner would dissolve. Especially because there are more viable targets of a cham!Executioner, say the people I've actually been going hard on to eliminate: Alison & Ender!

@MacDougall @ilario @EnderWiggin @dyachei @Tilgarial @Belzy

I am sorry I ruined your 3P game. I know it is hard to win as 3P. I feel the struggle. I am just playing to my win condition. It is nothing personal.

what was tilgs vote progression on day 1, i miss MU tools

stop pinging me

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:56 pm what was tilgs vote progression on day 1, i miss MU tools

You'll have to do it using an ISO and ctrl + f "vote", like we used to do in the old days, uphill in the snow

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:53 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:52 pm I love it when I make irrefutable points based on objective facts and get made out to be a lunatic. It's my favourite part of mafia lol.

I enjoy gaslighting people as both alignments.

If you are town and that is what you were just doing then you baited the entire wolfteam to defend you. So I expect you to have the correct and accurate solve as a result.

My new theory is that Chamomile is a conditional jester. I recommend killing them during the night. I doubt they're game ending but they might have some nasty effect if they win.

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:57 pm stop pinging me

read my post

!

It's not really a one piece gif if it looks like it came from bleach

Chamomile wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:59 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:57 pm stop pinging me

read my post

!

who says i didn't. i read all the posts. you dont need to ping me unless you're expecting a response

it makes me cranky

porscha being outed is so sad

From this point forth, all future legacies that Alison posts I will honour if they flip town. Only future solves. Only if flip town.

two votes, just lily at the start of the game
and placing a vote on Aro with, "everyone is talking about this slot, but not voting them"

not the greatest, but I think Tilg is known for holding his votes to later in the day phase
neither are the greatest especially Aro in hindsight

i officially hate one piece gifs, thanks

i do kind of think porscha might be in antispew because her role is good and i am playing into her hand a bit

but idk

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:28 pm In sevens world the play would imply that alison came up with the claim, knew it wouldn’t self resolve so asked nook you park on her. Her and wisp agreed that wisp would selfvote after Alison’s push to make them look unpaired, and then alison would not push him today because of aros legacy. Is that sort of how you are envisioning what happened in that world? @Chamomile

Sure more or less, but not necessarily with all that planning. And I don't think Alison's claim is necessarily made up but something that could benefit from being delayed.

!

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:58 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:53 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:52 pm I love it when I make irrefutable points based on objective facts and get made out to be a lunatic. It's my favourite part of mafia lol.

I enjoy gaslighting people as both alignments.

If you are town and that is what you were just doing then you baited the entire wolfteam to defend you. So I expect you to have the correct and accurate solve as a result.

I wasn't gaslighting you this game though. I was telling the truth. I just said it as a reference to SPF trolling you in Spiritfarer with the same line because you are treating me the way you treated her in that game (down to the part where we have nearly identical solves anyways).

You're right that mafia probably feel adverse to attacking me but I think the most likely reason is that they want to look good after I flip more than anything. They know that people like Illario and Lilypetal will go after the people who ran me up after an Alison green flip and therefore want to keep their hands clean. I don't know if they would balls to the wall defend me because it might actually save me if they try too hard since there's a lot of people who're not willing to lock vote me and stuff like Belzy as question marks.

So I suspect the there is at least one or two mafia who broadly take a position like: "hmm alison could be mafia but I'm not really convinced. I would rather go for X instead."

This might be the strongest argument for dya being scum since that is roughly how they have treated me. They are not the only one though.

None of this negates my earlier positions, Santy is still mafia, Porscha, Belzy, Tilg are still mafia.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:01 pm From this point forth, all future legacies that Alison posts I will honour if they flip town. Only future solves. Only if flip town.

No "only if she was right about Santy"? :P

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:00 pm

Chamomile wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:59 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:57 pm stop pinging me

read my post

!

who says i didn't. i read all the posts. you dont need to ping me unless you're expecting a response

it makes me cranky

Right, what do you think?

!

Anyway here's a read for you.

There are two slots that are likely outed mafia who are Belzy and Porscha. They each have 1 vote.

The top wagon with 5 votes is a top poster who is claimed strong PR.

There is a 500% chance that there is mafia on my wagon regardless of how you feel about me.

Find the mafia.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:05 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:01 pm From this point forth, all future legacies that Alison posts I will honour if they flip town. Only future solves. Only if flip town.

No "only if she was right about Santy"? :P

If you build a case on Santy that is more than "Santy is mafia because he pushed me all game in bad faith" I would give it some merit.

At this present time you have done nothing truly persuasive and know that you haven't so it just feels like more wifom and antispew.

But I am attempting to humour a world in which you just openly trolled me for 4 hours for some unknown reason.

idk what executioner does and Im too tired to care rn

/vote porcha

i need more time to process everything and i dont see why killing this slot isnt just optimal if we all think its a wolf

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:03 pm i do kind of think porscha might be in antispew because her role is good and i am playing into her hand a bit

but idk

yes or no
do you have mechanical info that 100% makes Betzy a wolf because of their claim?
I think Porscha just isn't posting, why does it have to be anti-spew, anti-spew themselves by posting, is that what u mean?
Confused why ur making this assumption

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:07 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:05 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:01 pm From this point forth, all future legacies that Alison posts I will honour if they flip town. Only future solves. Only if flip town.

No "only if she was right about Santy"? :P

If you build a case on Santy that is more than "Santy is mafia because he pushed me all game in bad faith" I would give it some merit.

At this present time you have done nothing truly persuasive and know that you haven't so it just feels like more wifom and antispew.

But I am attempting to humour a world in which you just openly trolled me for 4 hours for some unknown reason.

I will be like Hans Niemann and let the flips speak for themselves.

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:07 pm Anyway here's a read for you.

There are two slots that are likely outed mafia who are Belzy and Porscha. They each have 1 vote.

The top wagon with 5 votes is a top poster who is claimed strong PR.

There is a 500% chance that there is mafia on my wagon regardless of how you feel about me.

Find the mafia.

cool so lets kill them today lol im happy to park on either

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:08 pm

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:03 pm i do kind of think porscha might be in antispew because her role is good and i am playing into her hand a bit

but idk

yes or no
do you have mechanical info that 100% makes Betzy a wolf because of their claim?
I think Porscha just isn't posting, why does it have to be anti-spew, anti-spew themselves by posting, is that what u mean?
Confused why ur making this assumption

doesnt porscha have a volume tell?

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:07 pm idk what executioner does and Im too tired to care rn

literally a reverse jester
its a bad role

"get your target lynched and u achieve your wincon", basically
its not a regularly seen role outside like town of salem for what its worth

I wonder if it might be optimal to kill me anyways though. Like unironically I'm basically VT since I'm never going to get my action off and I think the thread health negative from making every day either the Santy and Alison show or the Macdougall and Alison show for 50 pages straight is not gonna be great.

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:08 pm

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:08 pm

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:03 pm i do kind of think porscha might be in antispew because her role is good and i am playing into her hand a bit

but idk

yes or no
do you have mechanical info that 100% makes Betzy a wolf because of their claim?
I think Porscha just isn't posting, why does it have to be anti-spew, anti-spew themselves by posting, is that what u mean?
Confused why ur making this assumption

doesnt porscha have a volume tell?

does she?

Ilario are you mafia? What is that progression on me and alison??

What I am reading pls

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:07 pm idk what executioner does and Im too tired to care rn

Executioner is given a person at the beginning of the game that they have to eliminate. What are your thoughts on Alison's thought process given that?

!

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:08 pm

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:03 pm i do kind of think porscha might be in antispew because her role is good and i am playing into her hand a bit

but idk

yes or no
do you have mechanical info that 100% makes Betzy a wolf because of their claim?
I think Porscha just isn't posting, why does it have to be anti-spew, anti-spew themselves by posting, is that what u mean?
Confused why ur making this assumption

I don't have 100% mechanical info on Belzy.

Porscha would've posted by now if she was town. It's as simple as that lol

Chamomile wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:10 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:07 pm idk what executioner does and Im too tired to care rn

Executioner is given a person at the beginning of the game that they have to eliminate. What are your thoughts on Alison's thought process given that?

!

i think it's a stretch for sure

santygrass wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:09 pm Ilario are you mafia? What is that progression on me and alison??

What I am reading pls

my progression is that if she flips town i need to re-evaluate you because both aro and alison want your head and so has mac at times

Santygrass lurking the thread to see if his attempt to get me killed is working and is seething that strong townies are seeing the light.

You stated so MUCH confidence on the townread on me , night and day and all that stuff while I was being suspected.

I nail a case on a wolf and suddenly you are thinking that I did it to pocket you??? Like what???

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:09 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:08 pm

Millium wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:08 pm

Lilypetal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:03 pm i do kind of think porscha might be in antispew because her role is good and i am playing into her hand a bit

but idk

yes or no
do you have mechanical info that 100% makes Betzy a wolf because of their claim?
I think Porscha just isn't posting, why does it have to be anti-spew, anti-spew themselves by posting, is that what u mean?
Confused why ur making this assumption

doesnt porscha have a volume tell?

does she?

Mac has told me she has a strong volume tell and has very confidently read her correctly in situations where she would be difficult to read correctly in a traditional way using this tell. So I believe it.

Porscha claims that she does not have a volume tell and is sick of people talking about it. I don't know if this is in game or out of it but someone said it.

ilario wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:07 pm /vote porcha

i need more time to process everything and i dont see why killing this slot isnt just optimal if we all think its a wolf

Maybe because we all know that this is a foregone conclusion and all that us all voting there right now would do is completely kill the day.

So why are you?

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:09 pm I wonder if it might be optimal to kill me anyways though. Like unironically I'm basically VT since I'm never going to get my action off and I think the thread health negative from making every day either the Santy and Alison show or the Macdougall and Alison show for 50 pages straight is not gonna be great.

Seriously though if I survive today we should do something about this possibility. We all saw what happened to finale and it's gonna be even worse if one of the participants is a wolf trying to nuke the game on purpose.