The Syndicate

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:13 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:07 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:59 pm Eloh Mac and Dave? could Speedchuck still be involved somehow?????


............................... quin?

I wouldn't be surprided if quin was mafia lol

I would be very surprised if Quin was mafia.

I've seen him play mafia & disappear mid game for reasons & end up being mafia.. sneaky lil quin

Dave
Elohcin
JaggedJimmyJay
Kylemii
novaselinenever
Quin
speedchuck
Macdougall

Assumptions:
Lapluie is dead. That leaves 8 players:
3 mafia
3 town
2 Indy

Assume one mafia is Dave. Otherwise, game is already lost. Assume Dave is either the power copier or the vote nullifier dude, otherwise, game is still lost. If these are not the conditions, then I guess we don't have to worry about Day 9, eh?

Mafia Votes: 2
Town votes: 3-1 (either the copier or the vote nuller)
Indy votes: 2

If JJJ votes with the mafia, then we have a 3v3, with one of town's votes nullified.

Unless Liu Kang.

So we might have a chance. Maybe. A good chance if JJJ doesn't defect.

TL;DR
If Lap dies and JJJ decides to go rogue, we doomed without Liu Kang
If JJJ sticks with us, we got a chance. Take down Eloh first and then choose between Quin and Mac.

i actually doubt the mafia will really kill lapluie

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:15 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:13 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:07 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:59 pm Eloh Mac and Dave? could Speedchuck still be involved somehow?????


............................... quin?

I wouldn't be surprided if quin was mafia lol

I would be very surprised if Quin was mafia.

I've seen him play mafia & disappear mid game for reasons & end up being mafia.. sneaky lil quin

Well, he disappeared for a vacation. But maybe we...



We're screwed if Quin is town.

If Quin is town and Dave is scum:

Elohcin - scum vote
novaselinenever - town vote
speedchuck - town vote
Macdougall - scum vote

JaggedJimmyJay - ?
Kylemii - Town vote

Dave - No vote
Quin - No vote

One of the town votes gets erased by vote power. That'll leave 2 scum votes and 2 town votes, with JJJ to break the tie.

tonight's kill is going to be critical, and there's no way they can be sure whether or not a protect exists, i don't see the mafia risking the game to do a favor for jay, especially when leaving lapluie alive gives them the possibility of getting his vote in an attempted lapluie mislynch.

Welp. I'm gonna go focus on Buffy. I'll cast a vote on Eloh in this one or whatever. GG JJJ, have fun deciding the game.

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] That's a good point, but it also . . .

WHAT ARE YOU DOING

If the game doesn't end, I'm playing pro-civilian. Anything else requires unsafe assumptions.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:34 pm@Kylemii That's a good point, but it also . . .

WHAT ARE YOU DOING

something fun (:

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:39 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:34 pm@Kylemii That's a good point, but it also . . .

WHAT ARE YOU DOING

something fun (:

No. Bad. *bops Kylemii on nose with newspaper*

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:40 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:39 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:34 pm@Kylemii That's a good point, but it also . . .

WHAT ARE YOU DOING

something fun (:

No. Bad. *bops Kylemii on nose with newspaper*

(:

I am not convinced that at least one mafia wasn't killed at night.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:51 pm I am not convinced that at least one mafia wasn't killed at night.

Is this weird wording or is it just me. I don't understand your double negative. So...are you saying that you ARE convinced that at least one mafia was killed at night?

Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:10 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:51 pm I am not convinced that at least one mafia wasn't killed at night.

Is this weird wording or is it just me. I don't understand your double negative. So...are you saying that you ARE convinced that at least one mafia was killed at night?

No, I am not convinced that one did, nor am I convinced that one didn't. I think it's possible.

I would say potentially up to three may have been. I'd go as far as to say that at least one being killed is 50/50.

omg

i forgot that eloh was still alive, i thought she was illegally deadposting

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:25 pm I would say potentially up to three may have been. I'd go as far as to say that at least one being killed is 50/50.

whu

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:51 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:25 pm I would say potentially up to three may have been. I'd go as far as to say that at least one being killed is 50/50.

whu

What or who?

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:54 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:51 pm

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:25 pm I would say potentially up to three may have been. I'd go as far as to say that at least one being killed is 50/50.

whu

What or who?

Who

Any of them really. There are roles in the game that make it possible.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:45 pmAny of them really. There are roles in the game that make it possible.

Li Mei could cause that. The role that would have been really good at causing that died on day 1.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:26 pm omg

i forgot that eloh was still alive, i thought she was illegally deadposting

you're funny

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:54 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:26 pm omg

i forgot that eloh was still alive, i thought she was illegally deadposting

you're funny

S u s p e ns ef ul

WHAT I'M ALIVE. ..

Good luck my civvies.

I'm actually chuckling. .what

That was a stupid move

what a unexpected move

MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:11 pm Can I swap in for the other low poster now please

Do you want die three times lol ?

How many Civvies/Mafia/3rd Party should they be left ?

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Alright, I think I have a pretty good idea of where the game is right now. We have two basic options as to where we go from here.

1. We lynch Lapluie. With your vote, we have the majority right now. We can end this game, and you have a decent chance of winning with me. It's a pretty good option, IMO, and it plays to your win con.

2. We lynch me today, my teammate kills you tonight, and then town can lynch my teammate tomorrow. Town wins. This option will result in the death of no more townies whatsoever, and Lapluie will remain alive. Not a great option for you or for me. Especially considering the whole dead man switch thing I'm doing.

That about wraps it up. Sorry we killed you [mention]MacDougall[/mention]. We were redirected somehow. Frustrating, but it ultimately doesn't change the plan at all. They should have swapped me to an inactive.

Why are you voting for me. ..????I'M CLEARLY NOT MAFIA. Oh my god

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:45 pm Why are you voting for me. ..????I'M CLEARLY NOT MAFIA. Oh my god

Yeah, but I am mafia.

So that's why.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:46 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:45 pm Why are you voting for me. ..????I'M CLEARLY NOT MAFIA. Oh my god

Yeah, but I am mafia.

So that's why.

Ok everyone lynch speedchuck

Kylemii you can join us in the Lapluie lynch if you want. You seemed keen on the idea. And your vote is actually worth something today.

this is madddd

oh. i thought you killed macdougall on purpose cus of his role

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:57 pm oh. i thought you killed macdougall on purpose cus of his role

I have no idea what his role was.

If it was Liu, then we've been saved from a tie by the hand of a busdriving god.

[mention]speedchuck[/mention] well I've already said that i thought you'd done a good job if you were mafia. i have no problem supporting a team that's worked hard for victory if that's what it comes down to.

My actions today really depend on what Jay decides is best. You've made an important error which makes you having the majority today a little less likely than you think. If Jay wants to do a cool 3 day long battle involving math and graph paper then i'm pretty much down for it.

Honestly though, whatever happens today is pretty inconsequential. I'm down for whatever.

bold play though, i respect it.

mmmmmm actually my math might be off

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] It's a gamble. there's two things we need to consider. whether or not a mafia member might have actually died from a nightkill is the first. speedchuck's "teammate" comment implies that there's just one but speed has motivation to lie. The second thing is whether or not speed is telling the truth about not knowing their kill was going to target macdougall. i'm going to assume the mafia duplicated their own vote cancel power. If speed's telling the truth about not expecting Mac's death then there's a possibility that one of their cancels got wasted

The thing that almost everyone seems to keep forgetting to account for when doing The Math and despairing about how hopeless the numbers are is the fact that that there's occasionally been a sock puppet in this game that's allowed to vote in the polls.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:42 am @JaggedJimmyJay It's a gamble. there's two things we need to consider. whether or not a mafia member might have actually died from a nightkill is the first. speedchuck's "teammate" comment implies that there's just one but speed has motivation to lie. The second thing is whether or not speed is telling the truth about not knowing their kill was going to target macdougall. i'm going to assume the mafia duplicated their own vote cancel power. If speed's telling the truth about not expecting Mac's death then there's a possibility that one of their cancels got wasted

The thing that almost everyone seems to keep forgetting to account for when doing The Math and despairing about how hopeless the numbers are is the fact that that there's occasionally been a sock puppet in this game that's allowed to vote in the polls.

None of that matters. I've done the math.
The question is whether JJJ supports us or not. That will decide it, or I wouldn't be pulling this.

If I get lynched, JJJ loses. That's the main point. You can put a 100% period on that. I guarantee it.

I can give you more information. Heck, I mean to make you believe that Dave was our teammate, but I guess I screwed that up because I am too honest.

JJJ decides the game here. And he decides whether he wants to win or not. You and your sock can oppose us if you want. It'd be a pain, and would be pointless, but you could arbitrarily decide to help town. That's okay, I just considered you town in my calculations anyway.

JJJ is the lynchpin.

it's not my sock