The Syndicate

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:02 am**

Huh.

Do I have my 3P assumptions backward????

...

HEY KYLEMII! WANNA WIN THE GAME!??

(Kidding. Offer still stands for JJJ.)

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:11 am**

And.... like i said, it doesn't really matter to me what happens here. I'm pretty sure lapluie is the only active civvie left anyways.

Jay's said before that he'd prefer to fight for a civilian victory even at his own expense, if he wants to stick with that platitude then i'll help because, basically sounds more interesting than handing you the victory. If Jay's ready to win then i'm not going to stand around fighting for a bunch of corpses.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:39 am**

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention] it's up to you.

If having your vote really matters to them that much then you can still do your whole white knight thing. Speed is 100% bluffing about his team killing you next. He would need to kill me next and then Lapluie, or Quin if he's back from vacation and the mafia really wants to screw you over, those would be the mathematically necessary kills for them to maintain a chance at victory, which by the way they would absolutely still have.

It's not as dire as Speedchuck wants you to think it is. If you want to keep fighting for the sake of truth and justice or whatever then that is absolutely still on the table. However, if you want to just take the win instead, then I can respect that too, it's what I would do.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:05 am**

Who are we lynching kyle, speed or jimmy

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:14 am**

lapluie wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:05 am Who are we lynching kyle, speed or jimmy

None of the above, speed wants to present himself as the best lynch option even though he was previously not a subject of suspicion because his teammates are already in the line of fire, he's probably Mileena.

A speed lynch would be fine but one of his partners would be better.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:16 am**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:14 am
lapluie wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:05 am Who are we lynching kyle, speed or jimmy
None of the above, speed wants to present himself as the best lynch option even though he was previously not a subject of suspicion because his teammates are already in the line of fire, he's probably Mileena.

A speed lynch would be fine but one of his partners would be better.

Nope

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:19 am**

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:27 am**

im not going to vote for speedchuck first just cus he tells me it's the best way to beat his team

speedchuck revealing himself was probably a pragmatic choice, either of his teammates could have made the same deal to jay without compromising the facade. the fact that speed did it means that his role is expendable

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:34 am**

I see now.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:42 am**

although even that is still a gamble since we don't know for sure who it is... nova is conspicuously quiet, eloh has always been a strong candidate, dave could be one, there's no reason why not.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:23 am**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:42 am although even that is still a gamble since we don't know for sure who it is... nova is conspicuously quiet, eloh has always been a strong candidate, dave could be one, there's no reason why not.

Going for JJJ is useless. The same goes for Dave, he hasn't shown up nor voted all game long. It's better to keep him around. Of the remaining, I trust you and Lapluie. I have you both as Town and the last alongside me. We should all vote together and get the lynch through.

Our two lynch target should be Speechuck and Elohcin. The way Speedchuck revealed isn't sitting right with me. I voted for him for now, but we could go for Elohcin who might be a better target. Speedchuck might be protecting him with the quick reveal. However we shouldn't discard that he might have done that on purpose to throw us off. This is WIFOM and you know them better than me. I will trust your read on him and vote the one you suggest between them.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:40 am**

on the other hand.............

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:45 am**

going for a less certain thing on a whim is how we mislynched made, maybe we should just keep it between lapluie and speedchuck to avoid making the same mistake.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:23 am**

I've changed my mind. My vote today is no longer dependent on Jay's. I know what I want to accomplish.

However, first I want to see how Jay resolves this vaguely prisoner's dilemma-like scenario. How often do we get chances like this?

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:21 am**

Kylemii, every assumption you are making is wrong.

For one, there are only two mafia left. Secondly, I am not Mileena. This was not a strategy of desperation, but a gambit that had a good chance of paying off.

And the biggest thing you are wrong about is that we will absolutely kill JJJ tonight, because of the above things. I'm Baraka. If I die, my team loses.

I am laying my cards on the table, narrowIng it down to this one choice.

If JJJ spites his win condition and ruins the mafias only chance at victory, we will return the favor. I don't mean that in any ugly way... it's just tactics.

Jay has said that he plays to win, not in a childish way. Time for him to prove that.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:58 am**

Oh, and the game might last another day regardless. So if JJJ helps us, we can totally kill a townie of his choice tonight.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:47 am**

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] We need to all vote against the same person otherwise the lynch might not go through. We should be lynching Speedchuck or Elohcin, not JJJ.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:18 pm**

I also want to clarify. I am not pulling this gambit for the thrill, or so that I can maliciously blackmail JJJ. I'm doing it because it is our best chance of winning.

Kylemii has, so far in this game, sided with Town.
JJJ has done the same, because it made the game last longer and helped his win con.

With those two in effect as town, confirmed as third parties...
With Lapluie and Nova confirmed as town...
With an accidental kill on Macdougal...

Who would we mislynch? Assume what I'm saying is the truth, because it is. There are 2 scum left alive. Realistically, at this point, here's what we have:

2 'confirmed' town
2 confirmed 3P
2 scum
2 other town

It is MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for us to win if both of the third party players play as town for no reason. Kylemii, as far as I know, is just playing for the lulz. No idea what his win con is. JJJ has been siding with town for good reason. I'm giving him better reasons to defect.

If the 3P players were both gone, scum would win this game right now.

So if I'm coming off as some super awesome arrogant blackmailing son of a gun, it's not intentional. I'm laying my cards on the table, no bluffing. I've got a winning hand, and I'm willing to split the pool with the 3P players, especially JJJ. If it doesn't happen, I'm flipping over the table, because by sincerely PROMISING that I will do so, I gain better chances. This is how the game is played.

My scummate trusts me, and they are standing by to see what happens. All I'm relying on is that JJJ is playing to win (and that there are no roles behind the scenes that are totally screwing this up. We have had a freaking RES. Anything is possible.)

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:22 pm**

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:18 pm I also want to clarify. I am not pulling this gambit for the thrill, or so that I can maliciously blackmail JJJ. I'm doing it because it is our best chance of winning.

Kylemii has, so far in this game, sided with Town.
JJJ has done the same, because it made the game last longer and helped his win con.

With those two in effect as town, confirmed as third parties...
With Lapluie and Nova confirmed as town...
With an accidental kill on Macdougal...

Who would we mislynch? Assume what I'm saying is the truth, because it is. There are 2 scum left alive. Realistically, at this point, here's what we have:

2 'confirmed' town
2 confirmed 3P
2 scum
2 other town

It is MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for us to win if both of the third party players play as town for no reason. Kylemii, as far as I know, is just playing for the lulz. No idea what his win con is. JJJ has been siding with town for good reason. I'm giving him better reasons to defect.

If the 3P players were both gone, scum would win this game right now.

So if I'm coming off as some super awesome arrogant blackmailing son of a gun, it's not intentional. I'm laying my cards on the table, no bluffing. I've got a winning hand, and I'm willing to split the pool with the 3P players, especially JJJ. If it doesn't happen, I'm flipping over the table, because by sincerely PROMISING that I will do so, I gain better chances. This is how the game is played.

My scummate trusts me, and they are standing by to see what happens. All I'm relying on is that JJJ is playing to win (and that there are no roles behind the scenes that are totally screwing this up. We have had a freaking RES. Anything is possible.)

There are only 7 players alive.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:31 pm**

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:22 pm There are only 7 players alive.

Quin isn't on the poll, but he's very much alive.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:49 pm**

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:31 pm
novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:22 pm There are only 7 players alive.
Quin isn't on the poll, but he's very much alive.

Oh I forgot about him lol.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:05 pm**

Oh.

Hey [mention]Kylemii[/mention], what would it take to convince you to vote for Lapluie? (Or, I guess, to keep your vote on JJJ)

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:16 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:23 am I've changed my mind. My vote today is no longer dependent on Jay's. I know what I want to accomplish.

However, first I want to see how Jay resolves this vaguely prisoner's dilemma-like scenario. How often do we get chances like this?

Let me put it bluntly.

JJJ isn't showing up. I'm 95% sure that he isn't going to. Lapluie got offended that JJJ wanted her offed and beat him up. His perspective is out of the picture.

Which, if I have my cards straight, puts this game into stalemate. JJJ was the scale-tipper. Now we are balanced. It falls down to you, which is disgusting, because I don't know if your win con has anything to do with all of this. What is it that you want to do?

And do you have any questions for me? We've got some time to talk this out. It's no longer a hunt. It's a diplomacy.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:30 pm**

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:30 pm**

what do you mean by Jay got beaten up?

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:32 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:30 pm what do you mean by Jay got beaten up?

It's probably Jaxx ability.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:33 pm**

oh.... huh.....

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:34 pm**

Do you have any reason (wincon) to want JJJ dead ?

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:35 pm**

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:37 pm**

my vote on him is just a placeholder, i'd prefer if he lives.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:39 pm**

I'm not killing JJJ tonight. Not if he was blocked. That would be crappy.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:40 pm**

what do you think the chances are that both sonya blade and jaxx are still alive?

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:40 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:39 am Speed is 100% bluffing about his team killing you next. He would need to kill me next and then Lapluie...

Why do you think I need to kill you?

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:41 pm**

id assumed jay was just being quiet cus of the position you'd put him in, i saw him reading the thread last night without responding

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:41 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:40 pm what do you think the chances are that both sonya blade and jaxx are still alive?

I can legitimately give you some odds, if you'll gimme a sec.

linki: JJJ isn't that slow to respond, and he's been online even more today. I think Lapluie Jaxxed him.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:43 pm**

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:40 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:39 am Speed is 100% bluffing about his team killing you next. He would need to kill me next and then Lapluie...
Why do you think I need to kill you?

*shrugs*

follow up question, if i follow your vote onto lapluie does the game end tonight or will there an additional kill and/or lynch?

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:43 pm**

I think the chances are very high. Otherwise he wouldn't have been trying to get Mafia to kill Lapluie last night phase. He's getting desperate.

If you can with Town, I would like you to vote with us against Speedchuck. We can win by next day phase.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:44 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:43 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:40 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:39 am Speed is 100% bluffing about his team killing you next. He would need to kill me next and then Lapluie...
Why do you think I need to kill you?
*shrugs*

follow up question, if i follow your vote onto lapluie does the game end tonight or will there an additional kill and/or lynch?

It cannot end tonight if you side with either one of us.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:45 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:43 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:40 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:39 am Speed is 100% bluffing about his team killing you next. He would need to kill me next and then Lapluie...
Why do you think I need to kill you?
*shrugs*

follow up question, if i follow your vote onto lapluie does the game end tonight or will there an additional kill and/or lynch?

Should be an additional kill/lynch. Only two mafia, and I could easily be foiled in my ability to remove votes.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:48 pm**

Here's what we have, from people who didn't flip:

Sloonei - was actually Johnny Cage, lol
JoH - was Raiden
Lapluie - Jaxx

That leaves:

Dave
Macdougall, dead
Glorfindel - was investigative role, dead
Long Con, dead
rabbit8, dead
Quin
Nova

4/7 chance that Sonya is already dead. Since the game will last another day/night phase if we kill Lapluie, I can smite 2/3 of the remaining suspects.

6/7 chance that JJJ wins if Lapluie is lynched today.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:50 pm**

If I am lynched today, since JJJ was blocked, I'll still probably go ahead and smite Lapluie. I'm not a jerk. JJJ has played really well, and deserves the win. I was hoping he'd win WITH US, but...

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:50 pm**

Isn't role outing against the rule ? Revealing yourself and others.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:53 pm**

Aside from Laplu, if the other Kano mark is alive then it would have to be among Dave or Eloh.... Or Nova I guess but I'm thinking probably not.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:57 pm**

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:50 pm Isn't role outing against the rule ? Revealing yourself and others.

I haven't outed anyone. I don't have hard info on this stuff for other players. I'm making assumptions.

. . .

Aw, well, I guess I have transgressed a bit with my own stuff. I fell back to my mafia roots, where claiming was allowed. I don't think I've given away anything that would warrant it, nothing to townfirm me obviously, but I reckon it's within his rights if Epi wants to smite me.

Crap.

Sorry about that. Knew this would happen. I need to go back to not signing up for this type of game. The rules are too squishy.

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:58 pm**

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:53 pm Aside from Laplu, if the other Kano mark is alive then it would have to be among Dave or Eloh.... Or Nova I guess but I'm thinking probably not.

Not Quin?

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:02 pm**

probably not

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:03 pm**

mkay

So you're saying that, if Quin probably isn't Sonja, then we could lynch Lapluie today and force JJJ to win. 6/7 - quin = 7/7 chance

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:05 pm**

hmmmmm

not that i'm the one solving the trolley problem it's less cool

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:05 pm**

now that*

Posted: **Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:06 pm**

[mention]Kylemii[/mention] Do you want JJJ to win ?

The Syndicate

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