lol i just remembered radishes was the Canucks backup last year and I was ours and we ended up finishing 1 & 2.
so yeah, universal backups are where it's at.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:18 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:17 pm
lol i just remembered radishes was the Canucks backup last year and I was ours and we ended up finishing 1 & 2.
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:21 am
Also probably TMI slip.
?
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:07 amAll the townies in the thread were excited by the flip and subsequent revelations, and immediately set to work solving...
Earlier today I finished my analytics course so I thought it would be nice to do something analytically to celebrate. This is a basic breakdown of Marmot's posts and how he mentioned every single one of us. I went through Marmot's ISO and counted the number of times he quoted someone, and mentioned someone in one of his posts. I then categorized every single one of Martin's mentions into three categories; Null, Town, and Scum.
I categorized something a "Town" post/mention when Marmot labelled you as a town-read/lean, defended you, or gave you props for one of your posts.
I categorized something a "Scum" post/mention when Marmot scum read you, disliked what you were saying, or voted for you.
Null is everything else
It is important to keep in mind that the data doesn't fully account for sarcasm and tone. If Marmot said "I think BoKnows is scum for posting twice in a row", I would count that as a scum post. These numbers also do not show the progression of Marmots reads. These are just raw numbers that will visualize Marmot's interactions. In my opinion, these graphs will be best paired with all the analyses Jay already did.
Complete Overview
► Show Spoiler
Individual Breakdown
*Disclaimer: if you can't find a certain player all of their posts were considered null
► Show Spoiler
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:19 pm
by MacDougall
BoKnows wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:22 pm
Well my thought just opened up the flood gates for more thoughts. Esooa or Alison (90% sure it was one of these two) mentioned how scum should hardshield town more often. I wouldn't be shocked if this was the case, but if that is the case I got Odd and Alison reads backwards... Thoughts on that situation?
Eh no that was me akshally
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:19 pm
by MacDougall
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:28 pm
I see the wolves are boxed in and saying the most insane shit possible to stir up chaos in the thread so townies can't coordinate and be productive. It's a busy day for me today so good luck with that. I will assign Jay to keep the thread sane.
I'm confirmed town jay thinks you're mafia tsp thinks Jay is mafia
Thats the important bits
Cool cool, what do you think of Jay and myself? And also TSP?
Not reading until d3/4, idk, my mac impersonation says hes mafia
Which one?
Its in the order you asked
Oooooh, I thought that was a full sentence in which you yourself were not going to read the game at all until then, then said Idk, then randomly said "he's mafia"
Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:27 pmI got a red peek on Nanook btw
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:52 am
I can't ignore the possibility that Jay decided he wants to hold the record for most posts in a scum game but outside of that edge case hes probably just town
JJJ probably wants that record for every alignment if we're being honest.
I believe the second one is the opposite of shade. Someone (esooa?) had made the argument that Jay was "tryharding" and that that meant he was mafia. Nanook was shooting that down, I think.
I see that now. I noticed the first one when I was reading the thread earlier, but spotted the second one when searching his iso for it.
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:15 am
marmot, when you get the chance, do you mind quickly breaking down your reads for me? just hearing your view of the game rn would be helpful for me
Sure. I'm about to go to bed, but here's where I'm at.
I think some of the players who are steering the thread and maintaining a cohesive, team-oriented approach are town. This includes JJJ and Sloonei. There are probably other such active players that I haven't had the chance to interact with, but these two are standouts.
Tutuu has been high activity, but low commitment to her reads, I don't think there's much sincerity behind it. I can dig into it tomorrow to see if I still feel that way.
I've already explained my read of you. Some good posts. One icky post.
Nanook is in a slightly similar boat, one post that I didn't care for, but overall has been fine. I expressed suspicion of him earlier, but when I think about it, I'd expect more slanking from him as mafia.
TSP and Bo I think are town due to volume and content. Bo in particular seems extremely comfortable and fluid here to an extent that I've never seen from himn, and he's been the Day 1 yeet in multiple recent games.
These are the players that have stood out to me thus far. Thanks for asking, this was a useful exercise for me too
Do you genuinely believe Al is the scummiest active wagon or is this self pres?
Also this wording implies there is someone who you'd rather see exed over Al but who isn't an active wagon. Who is it?
It is both.
I've seen reasons for both Ted and TSP to be town. Al on the other hand posted an awkward readlist yesterday and not much since then.
If this game happens to be multi-ball, Nanook and spf should be given another look. They were both suspicions I had earlier on before they claimed mason.
Falcon seemed kinda townie so ill roll with that, im also masons with spf
Joseph idk he might be town
I need what two more or three?
Maybe it was a joke, but this is the post I'm referring to
Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:12 pm
I didn't realize they were joking about it earlier, I thought it was an attempt from Nanook to shield spf, because at the time, she was taking a lot of heat.
Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:12 pmI didn't realize they were joking about it earlier, I thought it was an attempt from Nanook to shield spf, because at the time, she was taking a lot of heat.
I was also a mason in my last game and did not claim it in the thread. It led to a disastrous situation where my partner was almost yeeted and I had to vote someone I thought was town to save him.
The most telling stuff to me is in orange. We can play wifom all day if we want, but I don't care about that. This looks like a read by Marmot, one that he is actually entertaining. That he had to clarify himself and acknowledge that Nanook and/or SPF could have been joking sells that effectively. If Marmot thinks Nanook and SPF might be teamed in a multiball scenario, then Nanook is not on his team (and nor is SPF). If you, dear reader, would prefer to be more careful with this take, I don't blame you. But it's my perspective.
Red stuff: I absolutely do not care about this. I think it would be a fool's errand to interpret Marmot, more than perhaps any other player on The Syndicate, on the basis of stuff like this.
Green stuff: I am referring to the entire exchange starting with this green post. It's a soft interaction, so I say this cautiously, but I think it looks like Marmot being inquisitive with Nanook more than it looks like Marmot using Nanook as an excuse to Make Posts (in a way suggestive of a "hunt").
Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:04 am
Not only am I mafia, but I am on all of the mafia teams.
So much power, uwu
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:25 pm
Its a good read and it says good things about Marmot but idk how much it applies here
It's a wet fart from Nanook's side. There are more posts, but they're all directly related to what I have already covered.
Overall I would lean away from associating Nanook with Marmot. I'd be more comfortable with that if Nanook had given me something more of substance to solidify that perspective. With what I have though, I'd lean toward doubt. Nanook could still fit well enough into a general POE just for his posts on their own power, so those who suspect him aren't necessarily at odds with me. We just may have different reasons.
You should hashtag these so they're easier to find tbh
BoKnows wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:09 pm
You know that the next question is.
Oddmerta, fingersplints, you, Hally (as tutuu), Michelle, JJJ... those are the ones I can remember having some little doubts about. Least suspected would be Joseph, Strawhenge, falcon. That's just off the top of my head, the players I can remember reading a post and thinking good thoughts or bad ones.
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:28 pm
I see the wolves are boxed in and saying the most insane shit possible to stir up chaos in the thread so townies can't coordinate and be productive. It's a busy day for me today so good luck with that. I will assign Jay to keep the thread sane.
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:21 pm
I don't know if I can believe that BoKnows opens a role PM with red lettering and proceeds to do something like this.
Yeah, I'm loath to clear someone for this much effort (I've seen scum put in just as much, if not more, before) but this definitely nudges him away from the scum-lean I had him on.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:22 pm
by JaggedJimmyJay
I can just see champs spec chat raging about pie chart clearances.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:15 pm
Well that's fun! Thanks Bo. I laughed when ted stood out again.
it's the charts that are wrong
Numbers don't lie.
then how do you explain this video?
uhhhh we're going to reject the null hypothesis.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:24 pm
by BoKnows
Depends on who dies tonight I'll consider making stacked bar charts. Spice it up a little.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:24 pm
by Sloonei
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:22 pm
I can just see champs spec chat raging about pie chart clearances.
Pie Chart Section Color reads in spec chat, 2021.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:25 pm
by MacDougall
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:16 pm
I townread Sloonei's ISO of Marmot.
Yuh
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:25 pm
by Long Con
I know I'm just the asshole but seriously, multiball assumption tells us that we can't clear players as easily based on scumhunting. I thought everyone agreed on that.
I love Bo's charts, send him to the Championship by all means, but can someone who is clearing Bo in this game for them explain it to me please?
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:21 pm
I don't know if I can believe that BoKnows opens a role PM with red lettering and proceeds to do something like this.
That's all it takes? Even if he's on the non-Marmot team?
Well its not like she's townreading him for doing a fart
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:27 pm
by Sloonei
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:25 pm
I know I'm just the asshole but seriously, multiball assumption tells us that we can't clear players as easily based on scumhunting. I thought everyone agreed on that.
I love Bo's charts, send him to the Championship by all means, but can someone who is clearing Bo in this game for them explain it to me please?
I do not clear him for the charts. But I have generally felt that he is playing a town game, and there was a micro interaction with Marmot that I thought looked good for him.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:03 pm
Yeah I mean I gave it?
Looks like we praised the same moment. Okay then.
Yuh your conclusion mirrors mine p much. Lotta smoke tho. And u know what they say about smoke.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:28 pm
by Oddmerta
Pie chart new meta
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:28 pm
by MacDougall
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:13 pm
Sorry about that strange double post, my phone made me believe that it didn't post the first time
I scumread your phone
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:29 pm
by MacDougall
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:17 pm
lol i just remembered radishes was the Canucks backup last year and I was ours and we ended up finishing 1 & 2.
so yeah, universal backups are where it's at.
I was also backup and came 2nd the year before
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:29 pm
by staypositivefriend
BoKnows has continually felt relaxed, comfortable, and excited/happy to be in the game. I think that he would most likely come off more stilted and more "Point A to Point B" if he was playing from a wolf mindset. His posts are so directionless that I find them mildly villager indicative
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:28 pm
I see the wolves are boxed in and saying the most insane shit possible to stir up chaos in the thread so townies can't coordinate and be productive. It's a busy day for me today so good luck with that. I will assign Jay to keep the thread sane.
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:25 pm
I know I'm just the asshole but seriously, multiball assumption tells us that we can't clear players as easily based on scumhunting. I thought everyone agreed on that.
I love Bo's charts, send him to the Championship by all means, but can someone who is clearing Bo in this game for them explain it to me please?
Do you think he's mafia? I'm kinda on the fence. He has polarised me almost as much as you have.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:31 pm
by tedxtr
i'm so relaxed i'm posting from a spa rn, getting a massage
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:31 pm
by Justplayingitcool
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:25 pm
I know I'm just the asshole but seriously, multiball assumption tells us that we can't clear players as easily based on scumhunting. I thought everyone agreed on that.
I love Bo's charts, send him to the Championship by all means, but can someone who is clearing Bo in this game for them explain it to me please?
I’m not clearing him by any means. I thought he was pretty wolfy D1, but then sort of sprang into action tonight and made pie charts unprompted. I give him town points for it that’s for sure.
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:17 pm
lol i just remembered radishes was the Canucks backup last year and I was ours and we ended up finishing 1 & 2.
so yeah, universal backups are where it's at.
I was also backup and came 2nd the year before
Backups > primary reps, numbers don't lie.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:32 pm
by MacDougall
Oddmerta wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:28 pm
Pie chart new meta
What device do you use to play maphier?
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:32 pm
by MacDougall
tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:31 pm
i'm so relaxed i'm posting from a spa rn, getting a massage
Do you want to go steady with me bikkboiiiii
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:32 pm
by Hally
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:03 pm
Some general sentiments I wish to promote in case I drop dead:
This game has been chugging along nicely in a pro-civilian direction, and that's a credit to the efforts of many people. However, I do feel as though this thread has often been one or two steps away from derailing, perhaps sometimes due to deliberate efforts by wrongdoers but not necessarily in every instance. It has been my charge to keep the ship afloat and to keep the atmosphere of this thread appropriate for level heads and productive hunting. If I am dead, the primary agent behind that effort will be gone.
With that in mind: @MacDougall, @Alison, @falcon45ca, and @Esooa -- for the civilians among you that outlive me, please consider how your own behavior can influence that climate. Some players may wish to incite madness, innocently or not, but each of you has a role to play in ensuring that cannot be successful. The most obvious means toward achieving that is to reign in the instincts you may feel to present yourself as authoritarian or as a military commander. This can foster resentment in others which then itself leads to inordinate paranoia and unwillingness to cooperate. This doesn't mean you must be democratic, but it does mean you must treat everyone in the game, in spirit, the way that you would treat them outside the game -- including your suspects. I do not intend this as a lecture, and I have no doubt y'all can be effective in this way. I am saying it anyway because I will not be able to say it when I am dead, and it would be frustrating to watch things devolve to a less promising state for no good reason when I am a corpse. I choose each of you because I think these notions apply more directly to you.
@Sloonei, @staypositivefriend, and @Hally -- for the civilians among you that outlive me, I see you as the next line of defense of sanity and rationality. By that I mean that you will carry yourselves with aplomb, but you will also remain vigilantly skeptical when it is reasonable to be vigilantly skeptical. Each of you plays your own way, and you do so very well. I do think though that if I am dead, there will still be a solving void left where I stood. I think each of you could easily fill that void straightaway, especially if you work together to do so. Sloonei, this is especially important for you, because if I am to die any time soon, I will have done so without leaving a clear, irrefutable strong town read on you. That will not put you in a position you would prefer. You'll have to cover that ground on your own with accelerated solving.
@Strawhenge and @fingersplints -- for the civilians among you that outlive me, you are in decent shape for the time being. Strawhenge especially enjoys a position of broad trust, and fingersplints is at least given decent space to work without constant suspicions. Be aware though that under the circumstances, there's a very good chance each of you will outlive most or all of the people most dedicated to promoting your innocence. And if/when that happens, you will be magnets for b/s. You'll need to be ready for that, and also ready to engage your engines with the most reasonably assertive hunt you can manage. Because you'd be in charge, in a worst- or bad-case scenario, with no shortage of enemies trying to capitalize on your rustiness.
For everyone else, keep the pedal to the metal and we'll be just fine. Half or maybe even most of you ought to be civilians in a multiple-mafia-teams world, and in the end the game may fall to you. That encourages me, because I know the civilians among you will play to win.
Thanks for listening to my irritating pseudo-legacy post. I make it because I think you're all super and respect what you offer.
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:25 pm
I know I'm just the asshole but seriously, multiball assumption tells us that we can't clear players as easily based on scumhunting. I thought everyone agreed on that.
I love Bo's charts, send him to the Championship by all means, but can someone who is clearing Bo in this game for them explain it to me please?
Do you think he's mafia? I'm kinda on the fence. He has polarised me almost as much as you have.
There has been a lot of townclearing and such that does get in my head, and he's someone that I have had suspicion of in the past that I thought I'd be allowed to publicly suspect. Seems like he's getting taken off the list, although players who have responded so far seem to be dialing back the praise ever-so-slightly. We'll probably have to wait to see what Alison says.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:36 pm
by BoKnows
Canucks just made a horrible signing... not impresserd.
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:36 pm
by MacDougall
When the 49ers draft Justin Fields the NFL will be at the mercy of the red and gold for the next two decades.
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:25 pm
I know I'm just the asshole but seriously, multiball assumption tells us that we can't clear players as easily based on scumhunting. I thought everyone agreed on that.
I love Bo's charts, send him to the Championship by all means, but can someone who is clearing Bo in this game for them explain it to me please?
Do you think he's mafia? I'm kinda on the fence. He has polarised me almost as much as you have.
There has been a lot of townclearing and such that does get in my head, and he's someone that I have had suspicion of in the past that I thought I'd be allowed to publicly suspect. Seems like he's getting taken off the list, although players who have responded so far seem to be dialing back the praise ever-so-slightly. We'll probably have to wait to see what Alison says.
"I'm not allowed to say things" - Long Con, 2021
Re: Fargo Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:38 pm
by MacDougall
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:37 pm
Tom Brady has won more Super Bowls in his 40s than the entire state of Ohio.
It's ironic given Ohio produces some of the best players in the league every year.
