The Syndicate

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:31 pm**

Urist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:30 pm
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:29 pm It sucks that Sloonei's legacy is that he townread everyone, so NKA is difficult.
he scumread kza

Ah yes yes, we should resolve that posthaste.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:44 pm**

TF Scum, I just wasted my last message on Sloon.
Why would you kill someone like Sloon?
Honestly, this game is stupid.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:45 pm**

I’m voting myself, scum making me mad!

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:46 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:09 pm neither of those people are alison smh

OFC their not.
Why would your slaver die?

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:04 pm**

I'm sheeping Chop today. [VOTE: Chop{/vote]] aubergine

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:10 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:04 pm I'm sheeping Chop today. [VOTE: Chop{/vote]] aubergine

[VOTE:
why

my first impression from the made flip was that chop looked town from it

if chop is scum he is enclave because of the message thing. if chop/made are enclave/enclave then enclave always votes to kill chop over made, since made was vanillaizer + ninja and that's way better than commuter, as well as chop in general just being more distrusted and having less influence on the thread than made.

so from that logic I think if chop is scum we'd expect to find enclave on the chop wagon. the problem is that chop's wagon is Made, nook, myself, TSP and KZA. Made had to vote the counterwagon so that doesn't tell us anything. It is mechanically impossible for me or KZA to be enclave. I highly doubt that TSP is enclave with Chop. Nook buried Made so I doubt Nook is enclave either.

so enclave isn't on the chop wagon and enclave would be on the chop wagon if chop was mafia.] aubergine

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:10 pm**

imagine not closing vote tags

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:10 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:04 pm I'm sheeping Chop today.

why

my first impression from the made flip was that chop looked town from it

if chop is scum he is enclave because of the message thing. if chop/made are enclave/enclave then enclave always votes to kill chop over made, since made was vanillaizer + ninja and that's way better than commuter, as well as chop in general just being more distrusted and having less influence on the thread than made.

so from that logic I think if chop is scum we'd expect to find enclave on the chop wagon. the problem is that chop's wagon is Made, nook, myself, TSP and KZA. Made had to vote the counterwagon so that doesn't tell us anything. It is mechanically impossible for me or KZA to be enclave. I highly doubt that TSP is enclave with Chop. Nook buried Made so I doubt Nook is enclave either.

so enclave isn't on the chop wagon and enclave would be on the chop wagon if chop was mafia.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:11 pm**

the obvious question is "if mafia would bus chop to save made, why wouldn't mafia kill town chop to save made", and the answer is that they'd out their whole team if they led a wagon onto chop and he flipped town, but if chop flips mafia then everyone's happy and nobody's going to question it too much.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:13 pm**

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:15 pm**

absolutely heartless omission of KZA from the dramatic death scene

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:17 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:10 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:04 pm I'm sheeping Chop today.
why

my first impression from the made flip was that chop looked town from it

if chop is scum he is enclave because of the message thing. if chop/made are enclave/enclave then enclave always votes to kill chop over made, since made was vanillaizer + ninja and that's way better than commuter, as well as chop in general just being more distrusted and having less influence on the thread than made.

so from that logic I think if chop is scum we'd expect to find enclave on the chop wagon. the problem is that chop's wagon is Made, nook, myself, TSP and KZA. Made had to vote the counterwagon so that doesn't tell us anything. It is mechanically impossible for me or KZA to be enclave. I highly doubt that TSP is enclave with Chop. Nook buried Made so I doubt Nook is enclave either.

so enclave isn't on the chop wagon and enclave would be on the chop wagon if chop was mafia.

this is unfortunately good logic

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:17 pm**

could Enclave just have been completely off wagon?

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:18 pm**

Wait no, that's morton's fork.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:21 pm**

If Chop /weren't/ enclave you'd also expect enclave to be on his wagon. There's almost no difference in the counterfactual.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:21 pm**

I'd expect some enclave to be off wagon and some enclave to be bussing made. Probably they had like one person on made while the rest found plausible vanity wagons to hide on and prayed to god that the chop wagon won.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:23 pm**

someone tell me where the colors button can be easily accessed

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:24 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:21 pm If Chop /weren't/ enclave you'd also expect enclave to be on his wagon. There's almost no difference in the counterfactual.

I think Made wasn't long for this world regardless of what happened.

Therefore they had to know Made would flip enclave eventually and the wagon war with Chop would be scrutinized.

This means anyone caught voting Chop would be under heavy suspicion of Chop was town. But if Chop flipped mafia then it would be a wash and you'd look a lot better.

Therefore enclave would be a lot more likely to vote Chop if Chop was enclave, paradoxically enough.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:26 pm**

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:28 pm**

Hello everyone

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:29 pm**

alison you're in orange just to denote "not wolf"

Who's next?
Poll ended at Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:00 pm

ChopChop
5
25%
Voters: Made, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Alison, TonyStarkPrime, KZA

DaughterOfOmega
7
35%
Voters: MartinGG99, Long Con, Kylemii, Jackofhearts2005, MacDougall, Sloonei, Marmot

KZA
1
5%
Voters: ChopChop

MacDougall
3
15%
Voters: Dom, Grogu, Epignosis
Marmot

wow okay that wagon's actually very pure. Any insights about chop not being on the CW?

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:31 pm**

Not voting: urist (conscientious objector and light green), poison, daisy (lightgreen)

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:33 pm**

ChopChop is currently self-voting. From this, I deduce that it is difficult to gain insights into the game state from his voting decisions EOD3.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:33 pm**

Also the most obvious conclusion from "Chop isn't on the CW" is "Chop is scum buddies with the CW" and I've already said I don't think that's true.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:38 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:33 pm ChopChop is currently self-voting. From this, I deduce that it is difficult to gain insights into the game state from his voting decisions EOD3.

Good deduction Watson

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:39 pm**

So two or three wolves probably bussed if Chop is town

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:40 pm**

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:40 pm**

The same number minus one bussed if chop is scum

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:41 pm**

If scum is town then I don’t have to feel bad about having not been shot

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:41 pm**

You know what I meant

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:43 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:29 pm alison you're in orange just to denote "not wolf"

Who's next?
Poll ended at Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:00 pm

ChopChop
5
25%
Voters: Made, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Alison, TonyStarkPrime, KZA

DaughterOfOmega
7
35%
Voters: MartinGG99, Long Con, Kylemii, Jackofhearts2005, MacDougall, Sloonei, Marmot

KZA
1
5%
Voters: ChopChop

MacDougall
3
15%
Voters: Dom, Grogu, Epignosis
Marmot

wow okay that wagon's actually very pure. Any insights about chop not being on the CW?

Wow!
Doesn’t get anymore Slaver then this!
Yeah signalling back I see.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:44 pm**

Kyle/Poison/LC or something on enclave.. doesn’t work? Kyle keeps his vote on Mac and LC switches to chop

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:44 pm**

ChopChop wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:43 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:29 pm alison you're in orange just to denote "not wolf"

Who's next?
Poll ended at Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:00 pm

ChopChop
5
25%
Voters: Made, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, Alison, TonyStarkPrime, KZA

DaughterOfOmega
7
35%
Voters: MartinGG99, Long Con, Kylemii, Jackofhearts2005, MacDougall, Sloonei, Marmot

KZA
1
5%
Voters: ChopChop

MacDougall
3
15%
Voters: Dom, Grogu, Epignosis
Marmot

wow okay that wagon's actually very pure. Any insights about chop not being on the CW?
Wow!
Doesn’t get anymore Slaver then this!
Yeah signalling back I see.

there’s only one slaver sir

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:44 pm**

Done with your fake tunnel on me yet Tony?
Or did you come up with some new fake shit to push me with?

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:44 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:24 pm Therefore enclave would be a lot more likely to vote Chop if Chop was enclave, paradoxically enough.

Given that I've thought and still think Chop is truly BoS, their enemies are solely and exclusively non-town alignments. Thus anyone on there that has to get them killed is considered to be non-town to of some degree.

Only reason I could possibly think of that would maybe be an excuse for towns to vote chop (not withstanding the usual ML that happens in most FM games) is Hubologists, because the messenger roles are Enclave/Arroyo/BoS, meaning for Hubologists he was mechanically 2/3rds likely scum-of-some-degree based on pure probability alone.

But a hubologist died and tbh I can't really think of anyone who I would suspect to be a Hubologist, but that might be because they aren't my enemy + they need to eliminate enclave as well.

Only way I would ever vote to chop Chop Chop is if I felt it was in a post-enclave-is-a-major-threat era and it was the best thing to do for my alliances whom may be scum to others but not for my wincon. Unless I really thought someone was a part of a faction I'm supposed to get rid of other than enclave.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:46 pm**

ChopChop wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:44 pm Done with your fake tunnel on me yet Tony?
Or did you come up with some new fake shit to push me with?

I am pretty sure you’re a wolf and am entertaining a hypothetical. If you want me to stop entertaining that hypothetical, I can.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:47 pm**

Also it feels really disillusioning

to look at the wagons pointed out by TSP and see them so small compared to what the game started with

.....and to realize 9 players have died so far.

2 at EoD1.
2 at SoD2. (Had a vault City)
1 due to Modkill.
1 at EoD2.
1 at SoD3.
1 at EoD3. (Had an Enclave)
2 at SoD4.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:48 pm**

Work on addition sir

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:48 pm**

I wonder if we’re at pseudo LYLO now

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:49 pm**

16 players and let’s assume slaver’s held a kill but VC is all out. 4,2,1 seems within the bounds of possibility.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:50 pm**

ChopChop wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:44 pm Done with your fake tunnel on me yet Tony?
Or did you come up with some new fake shit to push me with?

imo stop it with stuff like this.

we're all aware of your read on tony and your "signalling" theory. repeating it 1000x in a row doesn't convince anyone it just damages thread health.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:50 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:48 pm I wonder if we’re at pseudo LYLO now

Bet your happy.
Think I’ll vote you now and see if people realize your wolf yet.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:51 pm**

Actually it might be notable to take a re-look at Jack since they have received no pressure after their Day 1.

Like we had 3 Top Wagons Day 1 and 1 of them is still alive which is Jack.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:51 pm**

Made took a deliberately needle-y thread position, I wonder if that’s a common thread

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:51 pm**

The other 2 flipped Town.

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:52 pm**

You had more votes than Jack

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:56 pm**

Honestly its kinda hard for me to think rn but the names that keep popping up in my head are Urist, Poison (Yes, I realize both of these no-voted but aside from that I've felt they were scum at certain points), and I should be looking into Dom. Well, maybe its not Dom. I'm not sure if a Wolf would like to be an intentional jackass (insert bias disclaimer here) to others, but this is multiball.

There's also that Long Con case by Marmot that seemed promising but I haven't looked at it very recently.

I probably should be looking into Epignosis, but really I've kinda ignored him since some mech info I have on n1 could potentially mean he has lower probability of being scum unless I got manipulated or screwed with.

Mac is just there and I have yet to look into them.

Everyone else I think is likely town?

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:57 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:10 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:04 pm I'm sheeping Chop today.
why

my first impression from the made flip was that chop looked town from it

if chop is scum he is enclave because of the message thing. if chop/made are enclave/enclave then enclave always votes to kill chop over made, since made was vanillaizer + ninja and that's way better than commuter, as well as chop in general just being more distrusted and having less influence on the thread than made.

so from that logic I think if chop is scum we'd expect to find enclave on the chop wagon. the problem is that chop's wagon is Made, nook, myself, TSP and KZA. Made had to vote the counterwagon so that doesn't tell us anything. It is mechanically impossible for me or KZA to be enclave. I highly doubt that TSP is enclave with Chop. Nook buried Made so I doubt Nook is enclave either.

so enclave isn't on the chop wagon and enclave would be on the chop wagon if chop was mafia.

Wouldn't enclave be on chop if chop were town?

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:58 pm**

Alison wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:11 pm the obvious question is "if mafia would bus chop to save made, why wouldn't mafia kill town chop to save made", and the answer is that they'd out their whole team if they led a wagon onto chop and he flipped town, but if chop flips mafia then everyone's happy and nobody's going to question it too much.

oh yeah that was an obvious question ok

Posted: **Tue Mar 09, 2021 10:00 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:52 pm You had more votes than Jack

Bitch you blind?
Since when was I a top wagon Day 1?

The Syndicate

Fallout 2: A Post-Nuclear Mafia Game [AMERICA RISES]

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