The Syndicate

sabie is towny for the monsters are due on maple street references. jay is towny for also being on top of the "there's no mafia lulz" thing. either of them could still be a lone poisoner realizing they're the only threat and having fun with it. I'm back to leaning jay more likely than sabie rn. but the fact that all of us seem to be in the same boat, we're all lost and showing the same mindset of not understanding what's going on, makes everyone feel legit to me.

I think there's still a possibility that FG and Colin were both mafia and there is one left, but the lack of kills even without LC's doc makes this seem unlikely. I think it is quite likely that kitsu is non-town (the poll question thing is a significant point in this direction imo). I think that after we eliminate kitsu we will still have to catch the poisoner to end the game, and I think that it has to be within jay/sabie. I feel like a broken record at this point but nothing else makes any sense barring some insane wisp/epi/lc tinfoil that I can't logically entertain at the moment.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:35 pm Epignosis claimed that he treated a poison on Day 1.

Is a poisoner ever able to kill someone on Day 1? It'd require an action to start the day to make sense. This game did not have a Day 0.

I didn't understand this either.

it could possibly be just a consistency thing?

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:35 pm in worst case worlds, we could be in mylo, if you are town, you should not be offering yourself up...

Okay the constant references to mylo/lylo from you are p weird at this point considering nobody else feels like that is a remote possibility.

I mean, if Kitsu isn't a poisoner and Wisp/his checks are to be trusted, then the poisoner must be sabie.

I wish that deduction felt more comfortable than it does.

If the mafia tried to kill me all four nights there would be a 0.16% chance of all of them failing.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 9:43 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:01 am @Epignosis who have you protected from poisons?

Nanook Day 1, Spacedaisy Day 2, Wisp Day 3, and Long Con Day 4.

Note that if there was a poisoning for today and it wasn't Long Con, that player is going to die.

Addendum:

If there's a poisoning today, it would support the notion that there is one every day -- meaning Epignosis may have truly prevented a poison of Spacedaisy (and/or somehow Nanook).

I explained a lot of my theory before
but if we mislynch here, unless there is only one wolf left
and someone else randomly dies, we are at 2/3 or 3/2, or 4/1 in best case

if the wolves can make normal night kills, then we just lose
if kitsu is a wolf, then we definitely lose

and if its currently 4/3 we also definitely lose

like there is no reason to be ok with yourself dying here, if you are town

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:46 pm I explained a lot of my theory before
but if we mislynch here, unless there is only one wolf left
and someone else randomly dies, we are at 2/3 or 3/2, or 4/1 in best case

if the wolves can make normal night kills, then we just lose
if kitsu is a wolf, then we definitely lose

and if its currently 4/3 we also definitely lose

like there is no reason to be ok with yourself dying here, if you are town

Are you reading the same game I am? Nobody thinks there is more than one wolf.

In general it's a good practice to never be okay with dying, k

sigh its still a possibility,
stop being ok with dying

hard to say if mafia did try to kill me?
Like I got a vest from Hally, but i won't be told if I lose it

The lack of kills is just objective evidence of something I suspect (no traditional mafia) for other reasons too.

The POE pool felt so solid all game long because it was. People projected civilianhood and/or were given clearance by mechanical means. Someone still has to be chopped, and even as well acknowledged that the likes of Alison and Tony seemed town sometimes -- someone had to be chopped. Then they flipped town. Colin seemed the same way they did at times, which is why I hold out little hope of him being mafia.

Now we're in the same situation. I don't think Kitsu or sabie seem like mafia. They just don't. I'm not. So what "team" is left? Wisp's entire check crew? It just doesn't hold up to scrutiny any longer.

But we're still here and, again, someone has to be chopped. A poisoner exists. That much is a certainty. So my only interest today is in chopping the poisoner.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]
going through Sabie's iso, still the same conclusion
nothing pings me as malicious, but nothing pings me as really townie
Best reason to call them town is because of your believe in how polarized their meta is
Best? reason to call them a wolf, their ability isn't provable, and they could have one of the abilities we are looking for?

Did Epi say if/who he targeted today?

sabie's role can be tested if there's a tie and she isn't a part of it. Have her declare her choice before Jack posts the flip. If it happens, she is not confirmed. If it doesn't happen, she is a confirmed liar.

Not sure about this really, but it's a possibility to consider.

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:18 pm Did Epi say if/who he targeted today?

Actually no. I'd said before it was LC, but I misread -- that was Epi's protection on Day 4.

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] who's safe from poison today?

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:16 pm @JaggedJimmyJay
going through Sabie's iso, still the same conclusion
nothing pings me as malicious, but nothing pings me as really townie
Best reason to call them town is because of your believe in how polarized their meta is
Best? reason to call them a wolf, their ability isn't provable, and they could have one of the abilities we are looking for?

I don't think she looks like a player who is informed on the alignments of others, or at least she hasn't much of the game. That says nothing about the potential for her to be an independent player though. Pretty much everyone alive can fit that behavioral profile, including her.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:13 pm The lack of kills is just objective evidence of something I suspect (no traditional mafia) for other reasons too.

The POE pool felt so solid all game long because it was. People projected civilianhood and/or were given clearance by mechanical means. Someone still has to be chopped, and even as well acknowledged that the likes of Alison and Tony seemed town sometimes -- someone had to be chopped. Then they flipped town. Colin seemed the same way they did at times, which is why I hold out little hope of him being mafia.

Now we're in the same situation. I don't think Kitsu or sabie seem like mafia. They just don't. I'm not. So what "team" is left? Wisp's entire check crew? It just doesn't hold up to scrutiny any longer.

But we're still here and, again, someone has to be chopped. A poisoner exists. That much is a certainty. So my only interest today is in chopping the poisoner.

My thought was look for the poisoner as well. I mean my logic was if there were so many millers it stands to reason there could be a godfather out there as well meaning the checks may not have all been accurate. Nutella says she used to her power on the check on her but she may not have.

Actually the thing I hate the most about Sabie:s slot is how they always join the thread to respond to stuff about themself...

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:22 pm My thought was look for the poisoner as well. I mean my logic was if there were so many millers it stands to reason there could be a godfather out there as well meaning the checks may not have all been accurate. Nutella says she used to her power on the check on her but she may not have.

What exactly are you proposing we do with the current chop?

What's nutella's claimed role again? I forget.

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:33 pm What's nutella's claimed role again? I forget.

Jack Black, I "entertain" or "inspire" my target so that their ability is guaranteed to work past any fuckery.

I'm going to be away for a while starting soon, but I should be back well before the deadline.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:28 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:22 pm My thought was look for the poisoner as well. I mean my logic was if there were so many millers it stands to reason there could be a godfather out there as well meaning the checks may not have all been accurate. Nutella says she used to her power on the check on her but she may not have.

What exactly are you proposing we do with the current chop?

You mentioned trying to figure out who the poisoner is so I was responding to that. I don't think I know anymore than anyone else does what to do right now.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:40 pm You mentioned trying to figure out who the poisoner is so I was responding to that. I don't think I know anymore than anyone else does what to do right now.

I just want to ensure I understand exactly what you meant. Were you proposing nutella is your lead candidate to be the poisoner, even if you're not sure?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:41 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:40 pm You mentioned trying to figure out who the poisoner is so I was responding to that. I don't think I know anymore than anyone else does what to do right now.

I just want to ensure I understand exactly what you meant. Were you proposing nutella is your lead candidate to be the poisoner, even if you're not sure?

Yeah unless LC is right and it's just been you this whole time.

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:47 amSo, maybe we have two people left and lying. The blond non-Jack and possibly Jack Napier.

This where I am right now.


KitsuShel
JaggedJimmyJay
sabie12
Wisp
Long Con
nutella
Epignosis

Who can prove they can do what they say they can?

In terms of content, my biggest present question about Kitsu lies with this reads list. This came during the present day phase. It is pretty hard to understand how she can come to these tiers under the current circumstances. Even if one is to question Wisp's checks, how is the green pile exclusively comprised of people who aren't checked?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:34 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:33 pm What's nutella's claimed role again? I forget.

Jack Black, I "entertain" or "inspire" my target so that their ability is guaranteed to work past any fuckery.

I have to say that I don't believe that. Is there any proof?

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:00 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:34 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:33 pm What's nutella's claimed role again? I forget.

Jack Black, I "entertain" or "inspire" my target so that their ability is guaranteed to work past any fuckery.

I have to say that I don't believe that. Is there any proof?

there can't really be except that wisp has seen the role. I used it on daisy the night she checked me and she was town so wasn't lying about getting a good result on me, but I recognize that you can't entirely trust that.

I mean, you can look back at my exchange with wisp confirming that he knows my role, similarly to how you had him corroborate yours

Okay, that's cool I forgot wisp checked you.

Gotta be kidding me. I made a post but it was stuck in purgatory while I played Street Fighter.

Kitsu made a post that accused me of using my role (or rather, the knowledge implied in my role) suboptimally but in the same sentence implied that I am "acting" (i.e., lying). Both cannot be true. The next post argues that JJJ can't be who he says he is because of there being a "plethora of Jacks." Another post leaves open the door for Long Con to be a liar. That post in particular says "someone here is lying." The use of the singular subject implies Kitsu knows there is only one liar (indeed, the text that follows this declaration implies it further- but contrast that wording with this post). This post passes the buck to TonyStarkPrime (and DrWilgy) for nutella eating Kitsu's vote, but at no point does Kitsu attempt to figure nutella out independently of those two things. This post implies suspicion of Wisp.

Everybody is bad means somebody is caught.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:19 pm

Wisp wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:18 pm Did Epi say if/who he targeted today?

Actually no. I'd said before it was LC, but I misread -- that was Epi's protection on Day 4.

@Epignosis who's safe from poison today?

Haven't picked yet. I usually send my shit in later.

Why do you want to know?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:09 pm Kitsu made a post that accused me of using my role (or rather, the knowledge implied in my role) suboptimally but in the same sentence implied that I am "acting" (i.e., lying). Both cannot be true. The next post argues that JJJ can't be who he says he is because of there being a "plethora of Jacks." Another post leaves open the door for Long Con to be a liar. That post in particular says "someone here is lying." The use of the singular subject implies Kitsu knows there is only one liar (indeed, the text that follows this declaration implies it further- but contrast that wording with this post). This post passes the buck to TonyStarkPrime (and DrWilgy) for nutella eating Kitsu's vote, but at no point does Kitsu attempt to figure nutella out independently of those two things. This post implies suspicion of Wisp.

Everybody is bad means somebody is caught.

Okay so you're saying here like she says she believes there is one mafia and one 3p left, but then says "someone" is lying implying one person. So these posts make is seem like she's the 3p and trying to figure out who the poisoner is which she believes is mafia.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:34 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:09 pm Kitsu made a post that accused me of using my role (or rather, the knowledge implied in my role) suboptimally but in the same sentence implied that I am "acting" (i.e., lying). Both cannot be true. The next post argues that JJJ can't be who he says he is because of there being a "plethora of Jacks." Another post leaves open the door for Long Con to be a liar. That post in particular says "someone here is lying." The use of the singular subject implies Kitsu knows there is only one liar (indeed, the text that follows this declaration implies it further- but contrast that wording with this post). This post passes the buck to TonyStarkPrime (and DrWilgy) for nutella eating Kitsu's vote, but at no point does Kitsu attempt to figure nutella out independently of those two things. This post implies suspicion of Wisp.

Everybody is bad means somebody is caught.

Okay so you're saying here like she says she believes there is one mafia and one 3p left, but then says "someone" is lying implying one person. So these posts make is seem like she's the 3p and trying to figure out who the poisoner is which she believes is mafia.

Wilgy did not use the ability n1.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:40 pm I mean, if Kitsu isn't a poisoner and Wisp/his checks are to be trusted, then the poisoner must be sabie.

I wish that deduction felt more comfortable than it does.

Like, i don’t even get where the question of if I’m a poisoner comes from. A two second google search will tell you what you need to know about Jack Daw, and there is zero to do with poisoning.

I think it was Tony that pointed out that the uncontrollable laughter is probably the Jack Napier Joker gas. Not Jack Daw. Blonde man who’s been swinging his swords and opening portals, again not Jack Daw. For fuck’s sake.

I get that it’s a hard game at the moment because everyone seems townish at one point or another, but one (or maybe two) of you are doing an insanely good job at being deceptive.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:50 pm

sabie12 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:34 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:09 pm Kitsu made a post that accused me of using my role (or rather, the knowledge implied in my role) suboptimally but in the same sentence implied that I am "acting" (i.e., lying). Both cannot be true. The next post argues that JJJ can't be who he says he is because of there being a "plethora of Jacks." Another post leaves open the door for Long Con to be a liar. That post in particular says "someone here is lying." The use of the singular subject implies Kitsu knows there is only one liar (indeed, the text that follows this declaration implies it further- but contrast that wording with this post). This post passes the buck to TonyStarkPrime (and DrWilgy) for nutella eating Kitsu's vote, but at no point does Kitsu attempt to figure nutella out independently of those two things. This post implies suspicion of Wisp.

Everybody is bad means somebody is caught.

Okay so you're saying here like she says she believes there is one mafia and one 3p left, but then says "someone" is lying implying one person. So these posts make is seem like she's the 3p and trying to figure out who the poisoner is which she believes is mafia.

Also if you read the first page of her ISO she spends a lot of time pretending to analyze her own role/actions she later claimed. She also spelled her own role wrong and then corrected it later. She makes it a point to keep saying that it is probably a town vig rather than an SK or mafia. Like to convince people of it in case it came up later.

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:03 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:40 pm I mean, if Kitsu isn't a poisoner and Wisp/his checks are to be trusted, then the poisoner must be sabie.

I wish that deduction felt more comfortable than it does.

Like, i don’t even get where the question of if I’m a poisoner comes from. A two second google search will tell you what you need to know about Jack Daw, and there is zero to do with poisoning.

I think it was Tony that pointed out that the uncontrollable laughter is probably the Jack Napier Joker gas. Not Jack Daw. Blonde man who’s been swinging his swords and opening portals, again not Jack Daw. For fuck’s sake.

I get that it’s a hard game at the moment because everyone seems townish at one point or another, but one (or maybe two) of you are doing an insanely good job at being deceptive.

Or, you know...

SOMEBODY IS LYING

Kitsu is right that I had not drawn a connection to the Jack Daw character in my consideration of her as a poisoner. Again, these flavor dynamics often don't even occur to me. When I get out of this virtual conference I can take a look.

Everyone has fakes though so it's hard for me to say who is a better candidate to be "blondie" or "hypothetical Joker thing".

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:09 pm Kitsu made a post that accused me of using my role (or rather, the knowledge implied in my role) suboptimally but in the same sentence implied that I am "acting" (i.e., lying). Both cannot be true. The next post argues that JJJ can't be who he says he is because of there being a "plethora of Jacks." Another post leaves open the door for Long Con to be a liar. That post in particular says "someone here is lying." The use of the singular subject implies Kitsu knows there is only one liar (indeed, the text that follows this declaration implies it further- but contrast that wording with this post). This post passes the buck to TonyStarkPrime (and DrWilgy) for nutella eating Kitsu's vote, but at no point does Kitsu attempt to figure nutella out independently of those two things. This post implies suspicion of Wisp.

Everybody is bad means somebody is caught.

*rolls up sleeves*

Yep. I said that I don’t believe your role claim, and I still don’t.

I also said that it was odd that that particular Jack would be here, and I still find it a little odd. If you’re going to poke apart my posts, use the whole thing. Immediately after that, I say that I think he’s town, but he played a brilliant game if he was mafia.

And it is fucking strange that a doctor was never killed off.

And by saying someone, it’s implied that someone is lying. Whether it’s one someone or two. I don’t fucking know. I don’t have a teammate like one of you do, nor do I have any kind of investigative powers.

I think Wisp is town, even if their character is an insane in keeper. I just don’t trust their results because if it.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:10 pm

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:03 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:40 pm I mean, if Kitsu isn't a poisoner and Wisp/his checks are to be trusted, then the poisoner must be sabie.

I wish that deduction felt more comfortable than it does.

Like, i don’t even get where the question of if I’m a poisoner comes from. A two second google search will tell you what you need to know about Jack Daw, and there is zero to do with poisoning.

I think it was Tony that pointed out that the uncontrollable laughter is probably the Jack Napier Joker gas. Not Jack Daw. Blonde man who’s been swinging his swords and opening portals, again not Jack Daw. For fuck’s sake.

I get that it’s a hard game at the moment because everyone seems townish at one point or another, but one (or maybe two) of you are doing an insanely good job at being deceptive.

Or, you know...

SOMEBODY IS LYING

Duh, somebody is lying. But it’s not me, and that’s why I keep trying to not let y’all cover it up.

My character had been in 3 of the write ups. Now, I know you guys don’t take much stock in flavortown, but I do. That proves that I’m not the poisoner or the Blond non-Jack.

At this point, I’m damn sure that the make up of this game was 1 SK (Pawn), 3 mafia, 1 Vig, and the rest town. I’m willing to bet that out of FG & Colin, one was mafia and the other was town. Which leaves up with two mafia.

The blonde is probably the don, (one of the town claims that isn’t a miller) and the other is a the poisoner. I’m bookmarking this post to look back on at game end.

I've tried to read into characters and stuff (like I did with JJJ), but on my end it feels like cheating.

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:16 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:10 pm

KitsuShel wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:03 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon Jul 20, 2020 2:40 pm I mean, if Kitsu isn't a poisoner and Wisp/his checks are to be trusted, then the poisoner must be sabie.

I wish that deduction felt more comfortable than it does.

Like, i don’t even get where the question of if I’m a poisoner comes from. A two second google search will tell you what you need to know about Jack Daw, and there is zero to do with poisoning.

I think it was Tony that pointed out that the uncontrollable laughter is probably the Jack Napier Joker gas. Not Jack Daw. Blonde man who’s been swinging his swords and opening portals, again not Jack Daw. For fuck’s sake.

I get that it’s a hard game at the moment because everyone seems townish at one point or another, but one (or maybe two) of you are doing an insanely good job at being deceptive.

Or, you know...

SOMEBODY IS LYING

Duh, somebody is lying. But it’s not me, and that’s why I keep trying to not let y’all cover it up.

My character had been in 3 of the write ups. Now, I know you guys don’t take much stock in flavortown, but I do. That proves that I’m not the poisoner or the Blond non-Jack.

That doesn't prove anything.

It doesn't prove alignment. The more I look through kitsushels posts the more I see that she is capable of appearing to not know info and then later revealed she did. Meaning she is capable of lying and trying to make it look convincing, but is now looking for the liar... I think maybe I'll move my vote back to kitsu again for now.

[VOTE: kitsushel] aubergine