The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:48 pm Not much has changed, Robin.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:57 pm Can you tell me why I'm voting Michelle?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:12 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:04 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:37 pm I’m pretty sure this is solid reasoning. I think on probability people who take lines like Michelle are more likely scum and people who take lines like Sloonei are more likely town.
Disagree? Y/N

Yes about me.
I thought is wolfy that you're doing the math day 1 because this may be a thing to pose in town carring.

Also I disagree with any playstyle comparison.

Sloonei's post was townish by itself and the mention of him being probably asleep at Eod and honestly pointing that his vote will last, I think this is villagery.

So you take my post and his post, make a comparison and find me scum? This is scumtactic from you and I notice a bad progression of you on me.

Michelle's progression on Tony loses me a bit. She deems my play "townish" while contrasting it to Tony's "wolfy" play, but I don't know what qualifies either of our actions to earn those labels. In particular, I'm not sure why it's suspicious for Tony to have an eye on the math involved in this game. It makes sense to want to know how many mislynches we have available to us. (Preemptive note: I called Tony out for the apparent emptiness of his mechanics talk, not for the mechanics talk itself).

Michelle's read of Tony here doesn't look like it amounts to much more than hand-waving. "You did a thing and that's bad", with no justification of why she feels that way.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:27 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:17 pm There is so little to pry on here.
Rainbowish from memory:

Me
Jack
Dom
DF
Sloonei
Sabie
LC
G-Man
——————————
Epi
Michelle
Nutella

Sloonei lower than DF in these reads comes as odd for me, Tony never said nothing about DF as town iirc while he had a post comparing me and Sloonei.

And Quin is missing

Lot of reads coming out of nowhere, and his agenda for me is visible.

I could say the exact same about you, Michelle.

Michelle wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:36 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:37 am I didn’t know Quin was in the game until after I posted the list. And I really appreciate how you think my agenda is visible because of the positioning of two people. What’s my agenda? Save my teammate DF? Lynch Sloonei? Well if my agenda is lynch Sloonei then why did I say he was townier than you? That would have been a mistake.

your agenda is to shade me. I think your attitude towards Sloonei is pockety .

We now know that Tony was not nefariously angling to shade Michelle, and I don't think this was an accurate read in the moment either. Tony is being lynched here, with the counterwagons of Jack and nutella. He's hard defending Jack and advocating for a nutella lynch. There isn't much reason for an evil Tony to start devoting energy to shading and antagonizing a civilian Michelle in this moment. He would be trying to convince her to change her vote.

If I'd been awake I expect that my vote would have moved, but there's no use saying that now. I'm not a fan of Michelle's progression here.

@Michelle why did you feel like Tony's actions were "wolfy"? What specifically made you feel that way about him, and why did you think his agenda was visible? Who are your next suspects going into Day 2?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 am See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

G-Man wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:31 am Both Tony and Jack were civvie, leaving nutella as the only unknown from Day 1. Here are some scenarios:

1. Nutella is civvie. The baddies don’t need to offer a third option when the two lead trains are mislynches. Work smarter, not harder. The Tony train was a civvie concoction with one or two baddies following the civvies’ leads.

2. Nutella is a civvie. The baddies launch the Tony train because Jack v. nutella grew stale. Not necessary, but the Jack kill could steer us toward a Day 2 mislynch by focusing on nutella.

3. Nutella is a baddie. The Tony train was started by civvies, and one or two baddies were willing to pad the poll to avoid a randomized tie-breaker after momentum against Jack stalled.

4. Nutella is a baddie. Sensing the pressure on Jack lightening, the baddies launch the Tony train in the hopes of creating a late-phase mislynch at best, and a messy situation involving last-minute vote-hopping at worst.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:33 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 am See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:07 am I’ve been waiting for nutella to do something impactful that I can respond to today.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:33 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:35 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:07 am I’ve been waiting for nutella to do something impactful that I can respond to today.

Sorry been doing stuff.

I think your criticism of G's iso was a little over the top tbh. But you quickly backed off of that anyway.

I had a very specific reason to think you were town earlier today but you're acting so jumpy idk if I should be so confident. Heeeeere we goooo

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:35 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:09 am See that big thing I enlarged? Where I come from, we call that "horseshit."

In order for this to be correct, Michelle has to know Sloonei is a civilian.

Oops.

Since you are paying attention nutella, talk about this.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:36 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:33 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:03 am nutella voted for me and is now voting for sabie. If Michelle is bad, lynch nutella next.

What is wrong with my vote for sabie? I think there is a case on her, and fwiw I don't think she would be "stupid" to have killed Jack here, or that it's too easy of a WIFOM argument to make. I think it makes sense in conjunction with her slight push of me which she seems to be backing off of now that nobody is biting.

And what link do you see between me and Michelle? I mean, I townread her What, do you know she'll flip bad and you want to line up a townie to take the fall?

Why do you townread her?

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:43 pm Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:02 pm Dom:

Long multi-quote post #1. Highlights include:
Soft support of Michelle
Inquisitive response to Jack's vote and 's his DF prod

Grills Jack x2

Long multi-quote post #2:
Continued Jack grilling
Clarification RE: stance on Jack; attempting to develop a read. Good look, backed up by content.
Disagrees with DF's nutella vote
Prods nutella
Good sequence of interactions in this post, A+ for Dom.

Long multi-quote post #3:
Supports Jack and his vote for Long Con
Engages with Jack on a discussion about nutella
Continued commentary on nutella/LC with Jack.
Dom looks to be genuinely trying to interact with Jack and to develop reads alongside him. I like the optics of this post as well.

Dom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:18 pm I think both LC and Jack don’t look great here.

After a series of posts where Dom tries to engage Jack in discussion of the above reads, something has happened which turns Dom's view of Jack into a definitively bad one. He had not gone so far as to express a town read on Jack earlier, but the tone of his posts was conversational, suggesting that he was giving him the benefit of doubt. This marks the first clear indication of read on Jack in a while. The read appears to be very fluid, which is a good thing again.

Here I am interpreting "now your posts don't reek" as an affirmative town read on Jack towards the end of Day 1. He accompanies this with a vote for Tony after responding to my case on him. I commented during the night that this vote didn't feel like it carried the weight of a final vote, but it stayed. The odd deadline time may have had something to do with it. I maintain a little bit of skepticism here, but as this is the most prominent negative position I have been able to take towards Dom so far, I'm not assigning it much weight. I don't object to the vote itself, I just wish there was more to it. He would later own the vote.

And now we're back at today and the present reads which we've just been talking about. I would still like to hear more about how they developed, not because I doubt their authenticity, but because I trust Dom's voice right now and the more he can tell us about his thoughts the better off we'll be.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:37 am

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:35 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:07 am I’ve been waiting for nutella to do something impactful that I can respond to today.

Sorry been doing stuff.

I think your criticism of G's iso was a little over the top tbh. But you quickly backed off of that anyway.

I had a very specific reason to think you were town earlier today but you're acting so jumpy idk if I should be so confident. Heeeeere we goooo

care to share?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:47 am Again I'm not reading.

Hur de dur

But:

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:43 pm Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

"Equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates?"

What the hell does that mean?

How does it mean anything in hindsight?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:56 am Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:57 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:56 am Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Whatcha rehearsing for?
...on topic...

Why do you trust Sloonei so much?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:47 am Again I'm not reading.

Hur de dur

But:

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:43 pm Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

"Equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates?"

What the hell does that mean?

How does it mean anything in hindsight?

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:33 am I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:57 am I am effectively making Sloonei's vote worth two until have a reason not to do that.

nutella wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:59 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:47 am Again I'm not reading.

Hur de dur

But:

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:43 pm Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

"Equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates?"

What the hell does that mean?

How does it mean anything in hindsight?

This post:

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:33 am I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

imo it's not a good look now knowing jack and tony were both town (and also knowing I myself am town) -- with three town wagons on d1 the mafia would be fine with any but try to look like they have a reason for voting one over the others

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:57 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:56 am Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Whatcha rehearsing for?
...on topic...

Why do you trust Sloonei so much?

To get better any make sure everybody knows their parts and...Jesus Dom, don't you do shows?

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:00 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:57 am I am effectively making Sloonei's vote worth two until have a reason not to do that.

Why?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:01 am

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:57 am

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:56 am Dom, you aren't going to hear more from me. I am in rehearsals. I trust Sloonei and will do so until I decide it isn't prudent.

Whatcha rehearsing for?
...on topic...

Why do you trust Sloonei so much?

To get better any make sure everybody knows their parts and...Jesus Dom, don't you do shows?

I trust Sloonei because the mafia will kill him if he is good. They will have no choice. He will make them kill him. If he stays alive, I can reevaluate.

Spoiler: show

For real, we're performing Andrew Peterson's "Behold the Lamb of God" and a bunch of other songs.

Dom wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:00 am
OK.
I'll chew on that.

Let's say sabie isn't in the game.

Why do we lynch and why?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:05 am If you are a civilian, just ignore my existence. I'm not going to be around to make a difference.