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Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D2]

Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 6:08 pm
by Scotty
Sorry SVS, wasn’t around for this
S~V~S wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:32 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:27 am
S~V~S wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 3:51 pm I said I would have. If I have a one use I use it up pretty fast so i don't lose it, and reading that EOD last night I was pretty sure she was woofin.Someone put a message into the night post that I was the town vig. Had I been that role (WHICH I AM NOT :noble: ) I would have vigged her last night. I know self meta is bullshit, buit I would have.

I know you read that post, since you told me not to talk roles due to SSK.
I read everything, but sometimes I skim sentences to focus on stuff that seems more interesting. Or maybe I just forgot. :shrug:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 5:09 pm
Roxy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 2:01 pm But.... no way a baddie team does not kill. It does not feel"smart". Way too many gung ho players on this site.
Maybe the mafia REALLY wanted to kill DDL but they couldn’t because I missed him so much so we just holstered.

Hypothetically. :blush:
Mafia wanting to kill me after yesterday is kind of crazy tbh.
S~V~S wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:20 am
Scotty wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:56 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 5:12 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 2:36 pm One thing that may be important.

This is either matrix 3 or 5.

If it's 5, and mafia didn't holster their kill (which I think I'll stop bringing up because it's incredibly unlikely), then mafia now knows who the SK is.

If we catch a mafia, we need to ISO their posts for who they might know the SK is.

For instance, if I'm mafia and I know the SK, I'll likely leave them alone, maybe even protect them, because mafia can win with the SK.
I mean real talk, I’m almost certain mafia shot Scotty and Scotty is the serial killer.

He’s the most obviously townread player D1 and somebody said something about him caring more about appearing townie than who was actually yeeted and that tracks.

If it was a jailkeeper, they’d just say something, right?

Idk if we have to yeet the sk to win tho.
Stop trying to get the jail keeper to claim. That doesn’t help

I agree I would likely be the obvious kill target. I also would be putting myself in a compromising position if I were SK being called a ‘town leader’. I would much rather toe the line and not be too loud and brazen if I were SK.

Probably

/end WIFOM
I read this as saying the jailkeeper would have said something, not that they should do so now.

But if the Jailkeeper had the SSK, and knew who they were that way (or guessed would be better, I'm sure SSK would lie) then wouldn't SSK know who the JK is? Or is that role generally a blind chat? Like the JK knows who their target is, but the target doesn't know who the JK is? Not looking for anyone to answer this btw, I'm asking this in a "general" kind of way. I'm not the best at traditional roles and how they function.

I would guess in this game it would be a blind chat, or at least I hope so.
Pretty sure jailkeepers have nothing to do with chats.

A JK is just a doctor who is also a roleblocker, and has to use both abilities on the same target each time.
OK, I remember games where the JK had a chat with the prisoner, or maybe the name of that role is different? But it functioned the same way, protected/blocked someone.

@Scotty , wasn't Nook a Jailkeeper in our game?
Yes. He had the ability that could bring someone into chat during the day and decide whether or not to JK them in the ensuing night

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 6:10 pm
by Scotty
Also, was that you DDL that kept getting into an argument about whether or not i said Michelle was waffling on that one post?

Because in my reread i would have asked to shut that down if I were around. I could really sense Michelle’s frustration with that one

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 6:11 pm
by S~V~S
Scotty, You keep saying I validated or agreed with things I didn’t. Yuck.

You said earlier I agreed with something DDL said when I didn’t.

I’m on phone at a BBQ right now so I’ll pull the posts later, but I wish you would stop bundling me with DDL like this.

Now imma go eat some corn. 🌽

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 6:12 pm
by Scotty
Based on EoD stuff, and previous:

I think Roxy is still good. I think Porscha is (probably?) good. The exasperation at end of day to get off both Lily and Michelle could be a play where Porscha knows both are town with TMI, but I feel like it might just be a towny motion

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 6:16 pm
by Scotty
S~V~S wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:11 pm Scotty, You keep saying I validated or agreed with things I didn’t. Yuck.

You said earlier I agreed with something DDL said when I didn’t.

I’m on phone at a BBQ right now so I’ll pull the posts later, but I wish you would stop bundling me with DDL like this.

Now imma go eat some corn. 🌽
Mm, this is based on my reread yesterday in the night, so I reread it again:
Spoiler: show
S~V~S wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:10 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 5:12 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 2:36 pm One thing that may be important.

This is either matrix 3 or 5.

If it's 5, and mafia didn't holster their kill (which I think I'll stop bringing up because it's incredibly unlikely), then mafia now knows who the SK is.

If we catch a mafia, we need to ISO their posts for who they might know the SK is.

For instance, if I'm mafia and I know the SK, I'll likely leave them alone, maybe even protect them, because mafia can win with the SK.
I mean real talk, I’m almost certain mafia shot Scotty and Scotty is the serial killer.

He’s the most obviously townread player D1 and somebody said something about him caring more about appearing townie than who was actually yeeted and that tracks.

If it was a jailkeeper, they’d just say something, right?

Idk if we have to yeet the sk to win tho.
On one level, it makes sense. No one is gonna yeet Scotty this game.

But on the other level, the best survival scenario for SK is being towny enough not to get yeeted but not so towny they get NKed.

So I would ask; Has Scotty had any very strong opinions? He tends to really focus on his suspects. I'm not sure I'm seeing that, though. He didn't seem to have a very strong single suspect. A few hours before he actually voted for you, he made this post with the "Maybe Jack" kinda vibe, and he only made one post inbetween. If you search his posts for "Jack" its kinda meh.

Spoiler: show
Scotty wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:27 pm
Roxy wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 10:22 am
Scotty wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 9:45 am
Michelle wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 6:04 am
Porscha wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:38 am
Michelle wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:51 am Scotty feels towny and that's the only solid read I have for now

No toDay's votes:
DDL
SVS
LC
Falcon

Pool of players I would vote
Jack
Porscha
Sig

The amount of 1 vote wagons shows that mafia doesn't care about them.
why lc and falcon townreads

a line on the sr's is helpful too

unless you plan on getting me ML'd again >:(
They're not reads, they are who I would and wouldn't vote.
If i wanted to vote you, i would, but I think Sig is more probably to flip mafia.
I’m trying so hard not to use meta this game, but on the flip side…

I find that the scummier sig is, the townier he is lol

While I can understand the suspicion on him, I also know he is like the easiest mid-elim fodder on D1. Especially for wolves to latch onto.

Not to say I think you’re a wolf, but I don’t see him as being incredibly fruitful of a choice today if he were to flip good.
hahahahahahahah - It's good to be right :p :p :p :beer: Meta will always make its way into everyone's game one way or the other.


Also we were cross posting right now yet you completely ignored me :pout: :stare:

why?
lol we weren’t crossposting. You came in after I left for work. Now I’m at work.

But ftr I don’t have any alarm bells going off for you.

I could still vote jack. Idk.

What do you think of DDL?

Being the loudest voice in the thread is not a great idea for an SK in general, more so here, and i know Scotty knows how to fade back in a towny looking way. Be a memorable thread presence without being a thread leader, I saw him do it in Lasso.

So even if he is the loudest voice in the thread, he's also not tunnelling anyone. Not even you, who he's voted for twice now. I don't see why the baddies would be targeting him, unless they were YOU, and I seriously doubt you would be that obvious. Also if you were the baddie who tried to kill him I doubt you would float this ^^ either. So this post bumps you up for me.

So yeah, this is possible, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. I won't be voting on him based on it. Every night just post the most innocuous message, "No one died" "Everyone died" etc. Everyone claim Vanilla. I plan to worry about SSK when and if they manage to kill someone, and who that someone is. Until then, I'm hunting baddies.

And I would expect Scotty to continue doing the same.
You right, I think I construed ‘this is possible’ with ‘I agree’, when it’s pretty clear you’re pushing back to this theory. My bad. :sigh:

Although, the bit in this post that stands out to me now is your conclusion: ‘Jack, you making this post and being this obvious is too obvious, therefore I bump you up’

Why?

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Mon May 27, 2024 10:52 pm
by Scotty
Thrilling stuff yall, keep it up

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 12:03 am
by Scotty
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 5:42 pm There's a penalty, it's in the rules post.

The reason I think a double shot is likely is that otherwise, a player who did not participate in LC's death decided to send a message with a fake LC death post, on the SAME NIGHT LC died.

Seems very unlikely. What is more likely is that the two wolf factions shot him, and all 3 of them faked LC death posts as a strategy to muddle the night post. And the 4th one is the actual LC death post.
For this to be the case, LC must be the motion detector. Which is bonkers- I looked through his iso and see no hinting or anything of that role.

I think it actually more likely that the SK is oscillating targets with a fake role reveal. The 1st night was probably the one that said ‘SVS was the vig’ and last night was ‘LC was the motion detecter’ and they just happened to guess the right kill.

I think LC was VT. It also lines up that there are 3 ‘LC was vanilla’ messages. The SK wouldn’t use that as a cover.

Now unfortunately, the odds of the SK choosing the correct message at night is increasing and it’s almost a die roll without any investigation. We really need to find a wolf today, and the SK tomorrow

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 12:07 am
by Scotty
I forgot sig was still playing this game. He didn’t post at all on D2.

That is depressing. I don’t feel like going that route today- still think we’re being led away from wolves by at least 1 big talker.

Would probably look into SVS and DDL on top of Jack. I see distinct partner equity of a SVS/Jack team but don’t exactly feel like it is a slam dunk. And I don’t currently have a case. But I can *see* the pairing, however useless that may sound

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 12:09 am
by Scotty
And until you chargrilled honeypots decide to show up and engage with me, I’m just gonna keep talking when I can

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 12:35 am
by Scotty
@Porscha i see in my reread that you TR Lily.

Who is your strongest wolf read in this game?

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:29 am
by S~V~S
OK, first this.
Spoiler: show
S~V~S wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 3:37 pm
Scotty wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 1:32 pm
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 11:00 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:49 am
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:38 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 9:34 am
S~V~S wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 6:58 am Also "new civvie corpse"? I am not sure what your meaning is here?
Some slowpokes are believing the post that says you are a dead vig.

Not sure if slowpokes or fake dumb tells tho.
I would be the corpse if she is a vig, what are you talking about?
Read the posts, please. A bunch of people didn't understand the host post.

Also dramatic much? Why are you so sure a vig Svs would have taken you down?

Because she said so?
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:49 am
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:39 am
He didn't say that though
It's called paraphrasing.
So what he said is translated in what you said?
Scotty wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 9:09 am
Spoiler: show
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 6:48 am
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 6:40 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 6:39 am

You seem to be flip-flopping weirdly between having voted facon for self-press and actually coming up with a reason for it. Not sure if I dig it.
They are both things that passed through my mind at Eod. What's there to dig?
I wanted to stay away from the game at one moment.
The feeling of 'fuck it, why should I cry for it?' vanished after a while and I was curious to see what everyone says, since I stayed counting sheeps on the ceiling (imaginary, of course) and I still have that joy to solve the game that made me play it for more than 5 years, and I didn't want to vote Jack because of dead air dead villager state of game.

Now explain me why flip flopping is bad/wolfy

It can go both ways for sure
I don’t know if I would consider this flip flopping in context. It’s revisionist in the same paragraph. But both can exist, I suppose
Not quite
It's like Scotty said, feels like you are throwing every excuse on the wall at once to see what sticks.
Yeah I think DDL is misconstruing my takeaway

I’m actively playing a behavioral psychologist to determine motivations for your reasoning and while I can see how you could be using multiple reasoning, I can also see how your meaning could also be better described as ‘I was self pressing AND of the people that I could have voted for, falcon was the one I found less settling’

I don’t know that I even suspect Michelle based on this


But I do see SVS and DDL do find it suspicious which I am noting
Dude, you made that post like an hour after I left, I haven't posted since before you made it. Like I said, I don't find self pres AI, and when I self pres I try to find a rationale for it so as not to feel like a jerk, so I'm not calling people out for the same thing.

So you can un-note me agreeing with it. I do think I agreed with something else you said, but it was about me :D
You went into some esoteric point that DDL misconstrued nefariously to your POV, and then lumped me in with him as doing the same, and I wasn't even in the thread at the time. I did not agree with his take away since I never saw it. I had my own reason for sussing Michelle, which I said more than once.

I replied to you about this, ^^^ but you never replied back. Now you're saying I have a history of agreeing with DDL about smalll nuances someone else (who happens to be you) made. And I don't.



Scotty wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:16 pm
S~V~S wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:11 pm Scotty, You keep saying I validated or agreed with things I didn’t. Yuck.

You said earlier I agreed with something DDL said when I didn’t.

I’m on phone at a BBQ right now so I’ll pull the posts later, but I wish you would stop bundling me with DDL like this.

Now imma go eat some corn. 🌽
Mm, this is based on my reread yesterday in the night, so I reread it again:
Spoiler: show
S~V~S wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:10 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 5:12 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 2:36 pm One thing that may be important.

This is either matrix 3 or 5.

If it's 5, and mafia didn't holster their kill (which I think I'll stop bringing up because it's incredibly unlikely), then mafia now knows who the SK is.

If we catch a mafia, we need to ISO their posts for who they might know the SK is.

For instance, if I'm mafia and I know the SK, I'll likely leave them alone, maybe even protect them, because mafia can win with the SK.
I mean real talk, I’m almost certain mafia shot Scotty and Scotty is the serial killer.

He’s the most obviously townread player D1 and somebody said something about him caring more about appearing townie than who was actually yeeted and that tracks.

If it was a jailkeeper, they’d just say something, right?

Idk if we have to yeet the sk to win tho.
On one level, it makes sense. No one is gonna yeet Scotty this game.

But on the other level, the best survival scenario for SK is being towny enough not to get yeeted but not so towny they get NKed.

So I would ask; Has Scotty had any very strong opinions? He tends to really focus on his suspects. I'm not sure I'm seeing that, though. He didn't seem to have a very strong single suspect. A few hours before he actually voted for you, he made this post with the "Maybe Jack" kinda vibe, and he only made one post inbetween. If you search his posts for "Jack" its kinda meh.

Spoiler: show
Scotty wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:27 pm
Roxy wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 10:22 am
Scotty wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 9:45 am
Michelle wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 6:04 am
Porscha wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 3:38 am

why lc and falcon townreads

a line on the sr's is helpful too

unless you plan on getting me ML'd again >:(
They're not reads, they are who I would and wouldn't vote.
If i wanted to vote you, i would, but I think Sig is more probably to flip mafia.
I’m trying so hard not to use meta this game, but on the flip side…

I find that the scummier sig is, the townier he is lol

While I can understand the suspicion on him, I also know he is like the easiest mid-elim fodder on D1. Especially for wolves to latch onto.

Not to say I think you’re a wolf, but I don’t see him as being incredibly fruitful of a choice today if he were to flip good.
hahahahahahahah - It's good to be right :p :p :p :beer: Meta will always make its way into everyone's game one way or the other.


Also we were cross posting right now yet you completely ignored me :pout: :stare:

why?
lol we weren’t crossposting. You came in after I left for work. Now I’m at work.

But ftr I don’t have any alarm bells going off for you.

I could still vote jack. Idk.

What do you think of DDL?

Being the loudest voice in the thread is not a great idea for an SK in general, more so here, and i know Scotty knows how to fade back in a towny looking way. Be a memorable thread presence without being a thread leader, I saw him do it in Lasso.

So even if he is the loudest voice in the thread, he's also not tunnelling anyone. Not even you, who he's voted for twice now. I don't see why the baddies would be targeting him, unless they were YOU, and I seriously doubt you would be that obvious. Also if you were the baddie who tried to kill him I doubt you would float this ^^ either. So this post bumps you up for me.

So yeah, this is possible, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. I won't be voting on him based on it. Every night just post the most innocuous message, "No one died" "Everyone died" etc. Everyone claim Vanilla. I plan to worry about SSK when and if they manage to kill someone, and who that someone is. Until then, I'm hunting baddies.

And I would expect Scotty to continue doing the same.
You right, I think I construed ‘this is possible’ with ‘I agree’, when it’s pretty clear you’re pushing back to this theory. My bad. :sigh:

Although, the bit in this post that stands out to me now is your conclusion: ‘Jack, you making this post and being this obvious is too obvious, therefore I bump you up’

Why?
Did you also see this, Scotty?
S~V~S wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 2:01 pm @Jackofhearts2005 Yeah, I know that, I talked myself in and out of it with that post :shrug:

But like I said, Scotty knows how to fade back and he didn't even try here. So I'm more inclined to think he's just town, and we move on and see what happens.

But agreed, it's an interesting discussion but it isn't really getting us anywhere on Day 2.
I thought it was an interesting theory, so i engaged with it. Which is kinda how we play this game. Ultimately, I disagreed with it, based on being your teammate in Lasso. You know how to be a strong presence without being the lead player, and you didn't even try to do that here. You went from zero to sixty in patented towny Scotty behavior.

The way we play this game is theorize that other players are bad roles, and we discuss it. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're not (sorry MichellE :bighug: ). This is what I did, and decided I didn't believe it. You're acting as if it is some kind of personal betrayal. I "bumped him up" becasue I have no fucking idea who you are, and I didn't know that engaging with it was some kind of crime.

Then you keep trying to lump me in with DDL.

I initially thought Michelle and DDl were the bad team. Then when he got into it with Porscha about Michelle EOD, I unpaired them. I figured he was temp voting her then he would switch at EOD like he did Day 1 (and he did), but that discussion kind of unpaired them to me, then Michelle flipped town. So that leaves me with I'm not understanding why DDL has such strong opinions, yet is unable to commit to a vote.

So I'm not really sure where i stand on DDL, I don't agree with much of what he says, and tbh, I don't understand why he's saying it. Early my day 1 "No Vote" category was you and DDL, since he has been in my waffly null category.

As for Jack, I liked his theory, it was interesting, but I ultimately disagreed with it. And I was waffly on him much of the game, but that theory DID nudge him into my townier category since the baddies prolly know who SSK is and I find it very unlikely that one of them would touch the SSk with a ten foot pole, or even start a discussion of it since it could come back to bith them in the ass.

The only plus I see for Jack making that theory if he were bad is that if he managed to yeet you based on it, and you flip town, that pretty much townlocks him. But he needs to yeet you, and that's easier said than done.

Another reason to stop pretending this theory doesn't exist and to address it and ultimately decide it doesn't work, which is kinda what I did.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:30 am
by S~V~S
I accidentally voted the mod option on the poll rather than the see vote option. Sorry about that.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:34 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
I don't think I've had strong opinions in any mafia game for at least half a decade.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:36 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 12:03 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 5:42 pm There's a penalty, it's in the rules post.

The reason I think a double shot is likely is that otherwise, a player who did not participate in LC's death decided to send a message with a fake LC death post, on the SAME NIGHT LC died.

Seems very unlikely. What is more likely is that the two wolf factions shot him, and all 3 of them faked LC death posts as a strategy to muddle the night post. And the 4th one is the actual LC death post.
For this to be the case, LC must be the motion detector. Which is bonkers- I looked through his iso and see no hinting or anything of that role.

I think it actually more likely that the SK is oscillating targets with a fake role reveal. The 1st night was probably the one that said ‘SVS was the vig’ and last night was ‘LC was the motion detecter’ and they just happened to guess the right kill.

I think LC was VT. It also lines up that there are 3 ‘LC was vanilla’ messages. The SK wouldn’t use that as a cover.

Now unfortunately, the odds of the SK choosing the correct message at night is increasing and it’s almost a die roll without any investigation. We really need to find a wolf today, and the SK tomorrow
You are complicating things.

The motion detector post may as well be fake. Mafia just needs to make a few contradicting posts to muddle the waters.

And why does he have to hint to have a PR? I don't think I would have hinted at all myself, considering we have a soup killer in the game.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:37 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:10 pm Also, was that you DDL that kept getting into an argument about whether or not i said Michelle was waffling on that one post?

Because in my reread i would have asked to shut that down if I were around. I could really sense Michelle’s frustration with that one
What can I say. I literally can't read people whatsoever.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:40 am
by S~V~S
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 12:03 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 5:42 pm There's a penalty, it's in the rules post.

The reason I think a double shot is likely is that otherwise, a player who did not participate in LC's death decided to send a message with a fake LC death post, on the SAME NIGHT LC died.

Seems very unlikely. What is more likely is that the two wolf factions shot him, and all 3 of them faked LC death posts as a strategy to muddle the night post. And the 4th one is the actual LC death post.
For this to be the case, LC must be the motion detector. Which is bonkers- I looked through his iso and see no hinting or anything of that role.

I think it actually more likely that the SK is oscillating targets with a fake role reveal. The 1st night was probably the one that said ‘SVS was the vig’ and last night was ‘LC was the motion detecter’ and they just happened to guess the right kill.

I think LC was VT. It also lines up that there are 3 ‘LC was vanilla’ messages. The SK wouldn’t use that as a cover.

Now unfortunately, the odds of the SK choosing the correct message at night is increasing and it’s almost a die roll without any investigation. We really need to find a wolf today, and the SK tomorrow

Someone posted a message night 1 saying they thought we were in Matrix 5. That to me says that the person who posted that message KNEW we were in matrix 5. That's the motion detector matrix.
Sup gang, sig freud here.
dont fret that the cop is dead. We got this! Uwu

don’t trust that SVS. I still think DDL and the Scotsman are teammates. If I had a hunch, I’d say we’re in matrix 5, not the one with the vig.
Just saying. Tootles!
That person also said they thought you were teammates with DDL and I was not trustworthy, for full openness, didn't want to cut the message.

And even though Canada does not celebrate Memorial Day the same date as the US does, he's close to the border and I bet his family food service business has a busy weekend when we have a three day holiday. So him not being very involved this weekend would be not surprising.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:44 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
@Porscha I'd like to see more elaboration on the Roxy thing. Which seemed interesting, but the poll closed before we could actually look at it. Please don't wait to look at it again with 5 mins left in the day.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:45 am
by S~V~S
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
Why would you think sig looks like anything? For a Day 1, he looked towny. For Day three he looks like :ninja:

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:46 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Host confirmation would be nice, but reading the OP, I got a strong impression that if the SSK kills two people, the game goes on. Yhe reason for it is the usage of "removed" instead of "eliminated" in town's wincon.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:47 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:45 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
Why would you think sig looks like anything? For a Day 1, he looked towny. For Day three he looks like :ninja:
I know. But to me, not showing up day 2 doesn't change the fact he looks townie for the posts he made. Logic says he vanished for RL reasons, not for having a red role card.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:50 am
by S~V~S
Scotty wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:12 pm Based on EoD stuff, and previous:

I think Roxy is still good. I think Porscha is (probably?) good. The exasperation at end of day to get off both Lily and Michelle could be a play where Porscha knows both are town with TMI, but I feel like it might just be a towny motion
I agree that based on her Falcon vote, I don't think Roxy looked "bad" on Day 1; but since then she hasn't said much to sink teeth. On Day 2 her few posts only really discussed her day 1 vote. So not sure how you are so clearly placing her town.

I do also town read Porscha. Have to reread Lily which won't be happening now since gotta go get ready for work.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 5:53 am
by S~V~S
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:47 am
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:45 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
Why would you think sig looks like anything? For a Day 1, he looked towny. For Day three he looks like :ninja:
I know. But to me, not showing up day 2 doesn't change the fact he looks townie for the posts he made. Logic says he vanished for RL reasons, not for having a red role card.
'Hard disagree. Anyone can make a few towny posts Day 1. Not evolving based on new thread info 100% downgrades a day 1 towny look. Although i agree with Scotty that low posters shouldn't be the priority, esp to my mind sig. Sig likes being bad, is good at it, and is a very involved responsible baddie. But I'm not going to TR him based solely on meta without taking thread positions into account. So I find him null.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 6:15 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:53 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:47 am
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:45 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
Why would you think sig looks like anything? For a Day 1, he looked towny. For Day three he looks like :ninja:
I know. But to me, not showing up day 2 doesn't change the fact he looks townie for the posts he made. Logic says he vanished for RL reasons, not for having a red role card.
'Hard disagree. Anyone can make a few towny posts Day 1. Not evolving based on new thread info 100% downgrades a day 1 towny look. Although i agree with Scotty that low posters shouldn't be the priority, esp to my mind sig. Sig likes being bad, is good at it, and is a very involved responsible baddie. But I'm not going to TR him based solely on meta without taking thread positions into account. So I find him null.
I see your point, but that's not how I think like. If he felt genuine, he felt genuine. If I think he could have faked it, then he didn't feel genuine.

If he vanishes for the whole game I may be forced to do something, though. But now? Not touching him.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 6:16 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty is the SK because he keeps comming up with convoluted reasons to shut down my theory of who the SK killed last night.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 6:22 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
So excluiding the people I don't wanna yeet, that leaves me Jack, Roxy, Lily and TSP.

Without ISOing anyone, cuz who the hell has time for that is these days.

Roxy Ive felt okay-ish for most of the game, though I see Porscha and Lily saw a wolf last night. I didn't really get their points. Maybe I should actually reread this later when I can. For now I'd love a summary on why Roxy should die.

Lily is a big meh. Yeah sure she isn't bad with Roxy. Still meh. Could easily just be hopping aling Porscha.

Jack has said interesting things, but I think it's mostly mech? Abd SK hunting. I seriously disagree with whoever said mafia wouldn't hunt the SK. If you think they wouldn't, WIFOM says they could. And it's a good way to not hunt mafia instead.

TSP came very shortly, made a dozen posts. None looked great, none looked terrible. Hes one of those players I'm even worse at reading than usual. But hey, I signed up to this game to try so...

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Chance of being right is the same I'd have if I picked at random plus 1%. Or minus 1%. But I'm curious on what people think about TSP and I woke up in a low poster killing mood tofay.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 6:23 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Someone I trust please provide a case I can sheep on. Thxbye.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 6:51 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
If I don't trust you but the case is good I could also sheep.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 7:35 am
by S~V~S
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 6:16 am Scotty is the SK because he keeps comming up with convoluted reasons to shut down my theory of who the SK killed last night.
Again hard disagree. I think the SK and the baddies killing the same person is an interesting possibility, but not one we can really know. If I were the SK (or the baddies unless we were on a matrix with a janitor, which we aren’t based on flips) I would not talk about who I killed. What would be the point. It’s kinda weird but not conclusive.

Personally I think LC Made that post for the night 1 message, because one of his first posts in Day 2 after getting results (and if LC were the MD, he would check me first imo) was that he trusts me, and that also makes me think we are in that matrix.

This phone posting at work is more obnoxious than I remember. So odds of me doing slot if it is low. Later lovely mafia people.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 7:36 am
by S~V~S
*doing a lot of it is low.

~fixed

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 7:39 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty is talking about the SK because I started talking about it first.

I, one of the people who have stated to think Scotty is the SK before.

I think that would be a little too hard to ignore.

And you are right that we don't know there was a double shot, but from what I see, the double shot is the most likely possibility, by far. It's like 1 in 20, where anything else is like 1 in a 1000. I mean, what is the chance a townie randomly decided to make a fake LC death post the night mafia kills LC?

(No I did not calculate those odds for real)

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 8:25 am
by Scotty
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:29 am OK, first this.
Spoiler: show
S~V~S wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 3:37 pm
Scotty wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 1:32 pm
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 11:00 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:49 am
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:38 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 9:34 am

Some slowpokes are believing the post that says you are a dead vig.

Not sure if slowpokes or fake dumb tells tho.
I would be the corpse if she is a vig, what are you talking about?
Read the posts, please. A bunch of people didn't understand the host post.

Also dramatic much? Why are you so sure a vig Svs would have taken you down?

Because she said so?
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:49 am
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 10:39 am
He didn't say that though
It's called paraphrasing.
So what he said is translated in what you said?
Scotty wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 9:09 am
Spoiler: show
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 6:48 am
Michelle wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 6:40 am
They are both things that passed through my mind at Eod. What's there to dig?
I wanted to stay away from the game at one moment.
The feeling of 'fuck it, why should I cry for it?' vanished after a while and I was curious to see what everyone says, since I stayed counting sheeps on the ceiling (imaginary, of course) and I still have that joy to solve the game that made me play it for more than 5 years, and I didn't want to vote Jack because of dead air dead villager state of game.

Now explain me why flip flopping is bad/wolfy

It can go both ways for sure
I don’t know if I would consider this flip flopping in context. It’s revisionist in the same paragraph. But both can exist, I suppose
Not quite
It's like Scotty said, feels like you are throwing every excuse on the wall at once to see what sticks.
Yeah I think DDL is misconstruing my takeaway

I’m actively playing a behavioral psychologist to determine motivations for your reasoning and while I can see how you could be using multiple reasoning, I can also see how your meaning could also be better described as ‘I was self pressing AND of the people that I could have voted for, falcon was the one I found less settling’

I don’t know that I even suspect Michelle based on this


But I do see SVS and DDL do find it suspicious which I am noting
Dude, you made that post like an hour after I left, I haven't posted since before you made it. Like I said, I don't find self pres AI, and when I self pres I try to find a rationale for it so as not to feel like a jerk, so I'm not calling people out for the same thing.

So you can un-note me agreeing with it. I do think I agreed with something else you said, but it was about me :D
You went into some esoteric point that DDL misconstrued nefariously to your POV, and then lumped me in with him as doing the same, and I wasn't even in the thread at the time. I did not agree with his take away since I never saw it. I had my own reason for sussing Michelle, which I said more than once.

I replied to you about this, ^^^ but you never replied back. Now you're saying I have a history of agreeing with DDL about smalll nuances someone else (who happens to be you) made. And I don't.



Scotty wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:16 pm
S~V~S wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:11 pm Scotty, You keep saying I validated or agreed with things I didn’t. Yuck.

You said earlier I agreed with something DDL said when I didn’t.

I’m on phone at a BBQ right now so I’ll pull the posts later, but I wish you would stop bundling me with DDL like this.

Now imma go eat some corn. 🌽
Mm, this is based on my reread yesterday in the night, so I reread it again:
Spoiler: show
S~V~S wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:10 am
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 5:12 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sat May 25, 2024 2:36 pm One thing that may be important.

This is either matrix 3 or 5.

If it's 5, and mafia didn't holster their kill (which I think I'll stop bringing up because it's incredibly unlikely), then mafia now knows who the SK is.

If we catch a mafia, we need to ISO their posts for who they might know the SK is.

For instance, if I'm mafia and I know the SK, I'll likely leave them alone, maybe even protect them, because mafia can win with the SK.
I mean real talk, I’m almost certain mafia shot Scotty and Scotty is the serial killer.

He’s the most obviously townread player D1 and somebody said something about him caring more about appearing townie than who was actually yeeted and that tracks.

If it was a jailkeeper, they’d just say something, right?

Idk if we have to yeet the sk to win tho.
On one level, it makes sense. No one is gonna yeet Scotty this game.

But on the other level, the best survival scenario for SK is being towny enough not to get yeeted but not so towny they get NKed.

So I would ask; Has Scotty had any very strong opinions? He tends to really focus on his suspects. I'm not sure I'm seeing that, though. He didn't seem to have a very strong single suspect. A few hours before he actually voted for you, he made this post with the "Maybe Jack" kinda vibe, and he only made one post inbetween. If you search his posts for "Jack" its kinda meh.

Spoiler: show
Scotty wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:27 pm
Roxy wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 10:22 am
Scotty wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 9:45 am
Michelle wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 6:04 am
They're not reads, they are who I would and wouldn't vote.
If i wanted to vote you, i would, but I think Sig is more probably to flip mafia.
I’m trying so hard not to use meta this game, but on the flip side…

I find that the scummier sig is, the townier he is lol

While I can understand the suspicion on him, I also know he is like the easiest mid-elim fodder on D1. Especially for wolves to latch onto.

Not to say I think you’re a wolf, but I don’t see him as being incredibly fruitful of a choice today if he were to flip good.
hahahahahahahah - It's good to be right :p :p :p :beer: Meta will always make its way into everyone's game one way or the other.


Also we were cross posting right now yet you completely ignored me :pout: :stare:

why?
lol we weren’t crossposting. You came in after I left for work. Now I’m at work.

But ftr I don’t have any alarm bells going off for you.

I could still vote jack. Idk.

What do you think of DDL?

Being the loudest voice in the thread is not a great idea for an SK in general, more so here, and i know Scotty knows how to fade back in a towny looking way. Be a memorable thread presence without being a thread leader, I saw him do it in Lasso.

So even if he is the loudest voice in the thread, he's also not tunnelling anyone. Not even you, who he's voted for twice now. I don't see why the baddies would be targeting him, unless they were YOU, and I seriously doubt you would be that obvious. Also if you were the baddie who tried to kill him I doubt you would float this ^^ either. So this post bumps you up for me.

So yeah, this is possible, but it isn't a foregone conclusion. I won't be voting on him based on it. Every night just post the most innocuous message, "No one died" "Everyone died" etc. Everyone claim Vanilla. I plan to worry about SSK when and if they manage to kill someone, and who that someone is. Until then, I'm hunting baddies.

And I would expect Scotty to continue doing the same.
You right, I think I construed ‘this is possible’ with ‘I agree’, when it’s pretty clear you’re pushing back to this theory. My bad. :sigh:

Although, the bit in this post that stands out to me now is your conclusion: ‘Jack, you making this post and being this obvious is too obvious, therefore I bump you up’

Why?
Did you also see this, Scotty?
S~V~S wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 2:01 pm @Jackofhearts2005 Yeah, I know that, I talked myself in and out of it with that post :shrug:

But like I said, Scotty knows how to fade back and he didn't even try here. So I'm more inclined to think he's just town, and we move on and see what happens.

But agreed, it's an interesting discussion but it isn't really getting us anywhere on Day 2.
I thought it was an interesting theory, so i engaged with it. Which is kinda how we play this game. Ultimately, I disagreed with it, based on being your teammate in Lasso. You know how to be a strong presence without being the lead player, and you didn't even try to do that here. You went from zero to sixty in patented towny Scotty behavior.

The way we play this game is theorize that other players are bad roles, and we discuss it. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're not (sorry MichellE :bighug: ). This is what I did, and decided I didn't believe it. You're acting as if it is some kind of personal betrayal. I "bumped him up" becasue I have no fucking idea who you are, and I didn't know that engaging with it was some kind of crime.

Then you keep trying to lump me in with DDL.

I initially thought Michelle and DDl were the bad team. Then when he got into it with Porscha about Michelle EOD, I unpaired them. I figured he was temp voting her then he would switch at EOD like he did Day 1 (and he did), but that discussion kind of unpaired them to me, then Michelle flipped town. So that leaves me with I'm not understanding why DDL has such strong opinions, yet is unable to commit to a vote.

So I'm not really sure where i stand on DDL, I don't agree with much of what he says, and tbh, I don't understand why he's saying it. Early my day 1 "No Vote" category was you and DDL, since he has been in my waffly null category.

As for Jack, I liked his theory, it was interesting, but I ultimately disagreed with it. And I was waffly on him much of the game, but that theory DID nudge him into my townier category since the baddies prolly know who SSK is and I find it very unlikely that one of them would touch the SSk with a ten foot pole, or even start a discussion of it since it could come back to bith them in the ass.

The only plus I see for Jack making that theory if he were bad is that if he managed to yeet you based on it, and you flip town, that pretty much townlocks him. But he needs to yeet you, and that's easier said than done.

Another reason to stop pretending this theory doesn't exist and to address it and ultimately decide it doesn't work, which is kinda what I did.
Holy mountains out of mole hills batman
Ok I’m moving on from the ‘lumping in with DDL’ thing. As I said, I misconstrued in my reread.

“The only plus I see for Jack making that theory if he were bad is that if he managed to yeet you based on it, and you flip town, that pretty much townlocks him. But he needs to yeet you, and that's easier said than done.”

That does the opposite of townlocking him. It does exactly what he needs to do so that I can get mislynched, since the narrative that I can’t be NK’d is on the table. If enough people determine he’s full of it, (or we just…you know…kill him and he flips wolf), then mafia will have a better reason to NK me than what’s going on now

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 9:43 am
by Roxy
@DrWilgy and all players:

I'm sorry for not being here but I was partynapped Sunday
I am returning home now.

I'll be catching up when I get home. Since this is the first time seeing my phone in over 48 hours I thought I'd at least check in and explain.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 9:57 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Roxy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 9:43 am @DrWilgy and all players:

I'm sorry for not being here but I was partynapped Sunday
I am returning home now.

I'll be catching up when I get home. Since this is the first time seeing my phone in over 48 hours I thought I'd at least check in and explain.
Oh I think you are going to enjoy the last EoD.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:05 am
by Scotty
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:36 am
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 12:03 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 5:42 pm There's a penalty, it's in the rules post.

The reason I think a double shot is likely is that otherwise, a player who did not participate in LC's death decided to send a message with a fake LC death post, on the SAME NIGHT LC died.

Seems very unlikely. What is more likely is that the two wolf factions shot him, and all 3 of them faked LC death posts as a strategy to muddle the night post. And the 4th one is the actual LC death post.
For this to be the case, LC must be the motion detector. Which is bonkers- I looked through his iso and see no hinting or anything of that role.

I think it actually more likely that the SK is oscillating targets with a fake role reveal. The 1st night was probably the one that said ‘SVS was the vig’ and last night was ‘LC was the motion detecter’ and they just happened to guess the right kill.

I think LC was VT. It also lines up that there are 3 ‘LC was vanilla’ messages. The SK wouldn’t use that as a cover.

Now unfortunately, the odds of the SK choosing the correct message at night is increasing and it’s almost a die roll without any investigation. We really need to find a wolf today, and the SK tomorrow
You are complicating things.

The motion detector post may as well be fake. Mafia just needs to make a few contradicting posts to muddle the waters.

And why does he have to hint to have a PR? I don't think I would have hinted at all myself, considering we have a soup killer in the game.
We only have a soup killer for PRs, or else those that are VT are only susceptible regarding night posts.

You seem hesitant to want to acknowledge LC is VT. If I had to guess, I’d say you were the SK

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:08 am
by Scotty
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:40 am
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 12:03 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 5:42 pm There's a penalty, it's in the rules post.

The reason I think a double shot is likely is that otherwise, a player who did not participate in LC's death decided to send a message with a fake LC death post, on the SAME NIGHT LC died.

Seems very unlikely. What is more likely is that the two wolf factions shot him, and all 3 of them faked LC death posts as a strategy to muddle the night post. And the 4th one is the actual LC death post.
For this to be the case, LC must be the motion detector. Which is bonkers- I looked through his iso and see no hinting or anything of that role.

I think it actually more likely that the SK is oscillating targets with a fake role reveal. The 1st night was probably the one that said ‘SVS was the vig’ and last night was ‘LC was the motion detecter’ and they just happened to guess the right kill.

I think LC was VT. It also lines up that there are 3 ‘LC was vanilla’ messages. The SK wouldn’t use that as a cover.

Now unfortunately, the odds of the SK choosing the correct message at night is increasing and it’s almost a die roll without any investigation. We really need to find a wolf today, and the SK tomorrow

Someone posted a message night 1 saying they thought we were in Matrix 5. That to me says that the person who posted that message KNEW we were in matrix 5. That's the motion detector matrix.
Sup gang, sig freud here.
dont fret that the cop is dead. We got this! Uwu

don’t trust that SVS. I still think DDL and the Scotsman are teammates. If I had a hunch, I’d say we’re in matrix 5, not the one with the vig.
Just saying. Tootles!
That person also said they thought you were teammates with DDL and I was not trustworthy, for full openness, didn't want to cut the message.

And even though Canada does not celebrate Memorial Day the same date as the US does, he's close to the border and I bet his family food service business has a busy weekend when we have a three day holiday. So him not being very involved this weekend would be not surprising.
Yes, I remember the post, but considering that person also lumped in that DDL and I were wolf buddies, I wouldn’t give them credit for anything else peddled.

Does my surmising make sense? I don’t intend to dwell on the SK psychology, but I feel like my logic makes sense.

RE: sig- ok, well, weekend over. Where is he?

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:09 am
by Scotty
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
I bet you do.

Talk to me about Jack.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:15 am
by Scotty
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:47 am
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:45 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
Why would you think sig looks like anything? For a Day 1, he looked towny. For Day three he looks like :ninja:
I know. But to me, not showing up day 2 doesn't change the fact he looks townie for the posts he made. Logic says he vanished for RL reasons, not for having a red role card.
Here’s a question: how come when sig disappears for an entire weekend after posting almost nothing he looks towny for the posts he made, but when I disappear on Sunday, you and others went down the rabbit hole that ‘Scotty doesn’t seem as towny as he was’?
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:31 am re: Scotty

This is just gut but I'm feeling somewhat less confident in hisn supatown status today than I did yesterday. He is no longer the town leader, and is happy with it, but once you remove that, he... alright? Not bad but just alright.

I'm annoyed Sig is not posting.

Porscha is also VERY off my thoughts in this game and that annoys me too. She is not really playing.

TSP nneeds to come and play.
Also lol from this post on D2 where you’re annoyed sig is not posting.

You know what I just realized? Your theme this game is ‘I don’t have strong reads of anyone’. Self-affirming, mind you. Talk about blending into the background even though you have the most posts by a mile.

So why not [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:17 am
by Scotty
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:50 am
Scotty wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 6:12 pm Based on EoD stuff, and previous:

I think Roxy is still good. I think Porscha is (probably?) good. The exasperation at end of day to get off both Lily and Michelle could be a play where Porscha knows both are town with TMI, but I feel like it might just be a towny motion
I agree that based on her Falcon vote, I don't think Roxy looked "bad" on Day 1; but since then she hasn't said much to sink teeth. On Day 2 her few posts only really discussed her day 1 vote. So not sure how you are so clearly placing her town.

I do also town read Porscha. Have to reread Lily which won't be happening now since gotta go get ready for work.
I’m…unsure if I can say, but her behavior about feeling caged in just reeks of town, regardless of how the logic of her votes doesn’t make sense to me.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:32 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 11:05 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:36 am
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 12:03 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Mon May 27, 2024 5:42 pm There's a penalty, it's in the rules post.

The reason I think a double shot is likely is that otherwise, a player who did not participate in LC's death decided to send a message with a fake LC death post, on the SAME NIGHT LC died.

Seems very unlikely. What is more likely is that the two wolf factions shot him, and all 3 of them faked LC death posts as a strategy to muddle the night post. And the 4th one is the actual LC death post.
For this to be the case, LC must be the motion detector. Which is bonkers- I looked through his iso and see no hinting or anything of that role.

I think it actually more likely that the SK is oscillating targets with a fake role reveal. The 1st night was probably the one that said ‘SVS was the vig’ and last night was ‘LC was the motion detecter’ and they just happened to guess the right kill.

I think LC was VT. It also lines up that there are 3 ‘LC was vanilla’ messages. The SK wouldn’t use that as a cover.

Now unfortunately, the odds of the SK choosing the correct message at night is increasing and it’s almost a die roll without any investigation. We really need to find a wolf today, and the SK tomorrow
You are complicating things.

The motion detector post may as well be fake. Mafia just needs to make a few contradicting posts to muddle the waters.

And why does he have to hint to have a PR? I don't think I would have hinted at all myself, considering we have a soup killer in the game.
We only have a soup killer for PRs, or else those that are VT are only susceptible regarding night posts.

You seem hesitant to want to acknowledge LC is VT. If I had to guess, I’d say you were the SK
Claiming VT is bad too, because it helps the SK find their targets with PoE.

If you are VT, your job is to convince everyone else you are the most powerful role in town.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:33 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 11:09 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
I bet you do.

Talk to me about Jack.
Read the following post.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! N[0]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:33 am
by Scotty
Could be nothing but check out this vote progression in just the first 2 pages:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 7:45 pm Actually just thought of something.

[VOTE: Jack] aubergine

Will remove the vote if he makes sufficient progress in his Trails playthrough at discord.

I was gonna say finish Chapter 3, but that's a bit too much for 48h, so let's say the requirement is to arrive at Elmo Village. Should be easy enough.
Long Con wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:00 pm [VOTE: jack] aubergine same reason this is a crazy coincidence
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:21 pm [VOTE: DDL] aubergine

He hasn’t posted enough in several years. Wolfy af.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:53 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:26 pm
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:21 pm What is Trails, and Elmo Village?

Scotty wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:29 am N[o]

Hi yall,
Are we allowed to claim in this game?
Probably not a great idea, this sounds a bit like a Serial Soup Killer.
- Silly Serial Kill - At night, you may select a player and choose either a role OR one of the messages provided in the previous end of night post. IF that player is correctly chosen as that non-vanilla role OR the submitter of said message they will be night killed. This night kill will be strongmaned and may not be prevented.
It’s an anime video game about boobs. DDL is big into it.
Understatement of the year tbh. It's the best thing I've played in years.

And your Bestelle avatar is perfect (though you're stealing my idea) so imma remove the vote for now.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

I used to have fun bickering with him. Let's see if we can do this again.
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:30 pm Well then I’m surprised we even see him at all.
(that's a joke, it's not about boobs)
So I know it’s the first vote, and often these are arbitrary. But I know that I have in my mafia career voted for my partner early only to change it, just so i could say I voted them at some point. It’s perhaps a basic strategy, but also DDL hasn’t played in 3 years. (I also realize I’m pre-pairing jack with DDL which is a bit too tunnely)

Compound that with the general feeling that DDL has been actively avoiding talking about jack in relation to his alignment most the game, aside from ‘I can get behind Jack’s Scotty = SK theory’, and I just think those might just be the 2 mafia. Top 5 posters. Driving the votes.

DDL has been integral on all of the mislynches thus far, and he has an ‘oh shucks, sorry guys’ attitude about it.

Day 1: jumped on Roxy’s falcon vote intending to start another wagon because he wasn’t feeling the Michelle/sig. he did indeed set off that wagon, AND it seemed to mostly only make Roxy look bad. if all 3 of those are town, wolf DDL sets up the other 3 as future mislynches.
Day 2: oscillating at eod on Lily and Michelle. I don’t think he really cares either way how it ended, but wanted to feign that he had to really pick between them. Probably a good look for Lily, even clears her if DDL flips bad imo.

I’m feeling confident

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:34 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 11:15 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:47 am
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:45 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 5:43 am Still think SvS and Sig (although he needs to post),look townie. Adding Porscha to the list after yesterday.

Scot looks townie but I really dig Jack's SK theory.

As always, I don't have any suspects I'm confident on. And even the ones I think are townies, I can be convinced otherwise.
Why would you think sig looks like anything? For a Day 1, he looked towny. For Day three he looks like :ninja:
I know. But to me, not showing up day 2 doesn't change the fact he looks townie for the posts he made. Logic says he vanished for RL reasons, not for having a red role card.
Here’s a question: how come when sig disappears for an entire weekend after posting almost nothing he looks towny for the posts he made, but when I disappear on Sunday, you and others went down the rabbit hole that ‘Scotty doesn’t seem as towny as he was’?
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Sun May 26, 2024 7:31 am re: Scotty

This is just gut but I'm feeling somewhat less confident in hisn supatown status today than I did yesterday. He is no longer the town leader, and is happy with it, but once you remove that, he... alright? Not bad but just alright.

I'm annoyed Sig is not posting.

Porscha is also VERY off my thoughts in this game and that annoys me too. She is not really playing.

TSP nneeds to come and play.
Also lol from this post on D2 where you’re annoyed sig is not posting.

You know what I just realized? Your theme this game is ‘I don’t have strong reads of anyone’. Self-affirming, mind you. Talk about blending into the background even though you have the most posts by a mile.

So why not [VOTE: DDL] aubergine
My theme in this decade.

I could find posts from 20 different games where I say that as town and I'm not exaggeraring.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:35 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
"you are not allowed to be annoyed at Sig not posting and not also think he is a wolf"

Holy logical fallacies batman.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:36 am
by Scotty
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 6:16 am Scotty is the SK because he keeps comming up with convoluted reasons to shut down my theory of who the SK killed last night.
Shut down? My man, I’m here trying to make sense of it. That was my whole post. It makes no sense for the SK to correctly identify LC as the motion detector, and it doubly doesn’t make sense because LC made no discernible hint that he was such.

I also don’t WANT to talk about the SK, but I’m engaging because I feel like I have to respond to Jack’s illogical bullshit which you yourself SEEM TO FAVOR

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:37 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
Scotty wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 11:36 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 6:16 am Scotty is the SK because he keeps comming up with convoluted reasons to shut down my theory of who the SK killed last night.
Shut down? My man, I’m here trying to make sense of it. That was my whole post. It makes no sense for the SK to correctly identify LC as the motion detector, and it doubly doesn’t make sense because LC made no discernible hint that he was such.

I also don’t WANT to talk about the SK, but I’m engaging because I feel like I have to respond to Jack’s illogical bullshit which you yourself SEEM TO FAVOR
I don't seem to favor.

I think you are most likely SK.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:38 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
You seem angry out of a sudden, Scotty.

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:41 am
by Scotty
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 6:22 am So excluiding the people I don't wanna yeet, that leaves me Jack, Roxy, Lily and TSP.

Without ISOing anyone, cuz who the hell has time for that is these days.

Roxy Ive felt okay-ish for most of the game, though I see Porscha and Lily saw a wolf last night. I didn't really get their points. Maybe I should actually reread this later when I can. For now I'd love a summary on why Roxy should die.

Lily is a big meh. Yeah sure she isn't bad with Roxy. Still meh. Could easily just be hopping aling Porscha.

Jack has said interesting things, but I think it's mostly mech? Abd SK hunting. I seriously disagree with whoever said mafia wouldn't hunt the SK. If you think they wouldn't, WIFOM says they could. And it's a good way to not hunt mafia instead.

TSP came very shortly, made a dozen posts. None looked great, none looked terrible. Hes one of those players I'm even worse at reading than usual. But hey, I signed up to this game to try so...

[VOTE: TSP] aubergine

Chance of being right is the same I'd have if I picked at random plus 1%. Or minus 1%. But I'm curious on what people think about TSP and I woke up in a low poster killing mood tofay.
So in summary:
Roxy- she’s ok, but could also be not ok
Lily- meh, but also meh
Jack- interesting. But also no actual opinion.
TSP- not great, not bad.

It’s a word fruit salad, except the fruit is almost expired and it’s all cantaloupe

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:42 am
by Scotty
S~V~S wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 7:35 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Tue May 28, 2024 6:16 am Scotty is the SK because he keeps comming up with convoluted reasons to shut down my theory of who the SK killed last night.
Again hard disagree. I think the SK and the baddies killing the same person is an interesting possibility, but not one we can really know. If I were the SK (or the baddies unless we were on a matrix with a janitor, which we aren’t based on flips) I would not talk about who I killed. What would be the point. It’s kinda weird but not conclusive.

Personally I think LC Made that post for the night 1 message, because one of his first posts in Day 2 after getting results (and if LC were the MD, he would check me first imo) was that he trusts me, and that also makes me think we are in that matrix.

This phone posting at work is more obnoxious than I remember. So odds of me doing slot if it is low. Later lovely mafia people.
I feel extremely confident that LC didn’t make a post N1 because he doesn’t seem like the type of person that would dumbtell for so long about the posts. He seemed generally confused

Re: Help! Hostage Host! [D3]

Posted: Tue May 28, 2024 11:45 am
by Dragon D. Luffy
I don't trust people who believe in their own reads.

Either they are mafia, or newbies. Or magical scumhunting gods who can extract people's alignments by looking at their eyes (ie Dunya).

Most people can barely get a success rate a little better than rand, with a lot of effort. I guess I'm just very aware of that myself.