The Syndicate

DharmaHelper wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Self-voting is a risky behavior and not recommended when playing mafia, because the goal is to lynch baddies. Since you have insight on your own role, you must know you are a baddie, so I will totes mcgoats go along with your vote bea.

This ridiculous justification for example. The mafia equivalent of doctor assisted suicide.

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

What I'm trying to articulate is what is your estimation of the likelyhood that Russ failed his rolecheck (producing an incorrect result) that lead him to think FZ. was bad? Versus the likelyhood that it was a successful check that produced the same result (FZ as a baddie role)?

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

What I'm trying to articulate is what is your estimation of the likelyhood that Russ failed his rolecheck (producing an incorrect result) that lead him to think FZ. was bad? Versus the likelyhood that it was a successful check that produced the same result (FZ as a baddie role)?

12% vs. 50%

And I'm not a math guy, but Russ is.

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:

Epignosis wrote:If I'm understanding your question correctly, DH, there was only a 12% chance it was an incorrect read AND a Mafia read.

What I'm trying to articulate is what is your estimation of the likelyhood that Russ failed his rolecheck (producing an incorrect result) that lead him to think FZ. was bad? Versus the likelyhood that it was a successful check that produced the same result (FZ as a baddie role)?

12% vs. 50%

And I'm not a math guy, but Russ is.

And your calculations are factoring in all baddie roles or just the lynchable ones?

FZ. wrote:I've been thinking that maybe some of the baddies tactics is to push players really until they feel frustrated and they start outing themselves by hinting. It says Light has to know who some of the detectives are in order to kill them. I'm not sure exactly how baddies can do that without taking the eye deal, so maybe they are trying to get people to out themselves and then kill them during the night.
Who would fit that description? I can think of a few very obvious ones

FZ. wrote:RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:I've been thinking that maybe some of the baddies tactics is to push players really until they feel frustrated and they start outing themselves by hinting. It says Light has to know who some of the detectives are in order to kill them. I'm not sure exactly how baddies can do that without taking the eye deal, so maybe they are trying to get people to out themselves and then kill them during the night.
Who would fit that description? I can think of a few very obvious ones

Someone tell me if my interpretation of what I've read this morning is amiss:

The bad guys are using a tactic in which they frustrate the detectives so much that the detectives elect to out themselves. Knowing this, FZ. chooses to out herself as an unlynchable detective (on Day 8, not before), thus playing right in the Mafia's hands. Instead of absorbing the lynch and keeping a question mark still there, FZ. believed the smartest thing to do is role claim.

No...that doesn't ring true.

FZ. wrote:RIP Bea

Before I go into the number thing, Epi, I want to ask you a question. Do you think Russ would have voted for a player who couldn't be lynched? If not, if you lynch me and I don't die, would that convince you that if he did in fact role check me, he got a false role?

Would Russ vote for Misa if he thought she still had her death note?

Turnip Head wrote:And don't lump me in the same category as MM y'all. That guy's not helping at all and isn't afraid to make it obvious. I've survived a lynch, but I'm playing a completely different game than he is.

DharmaHelper wrote:Some cursory thoughts while I continue to read:

Boo Vs. ...Well, Kinda Everybody? - I've been reading boo as genuine thus far, even if he was wrong about Bea. Boo has always struck me as the sort of player to be very confident (to a fault perhaps) in his suspects. His tunnel vision is perhaps he most obvious flaw, and I'm interested to see how his suspicions develop.

MM vs. TH - They've both survived lynches, so that narrows down who they could be quite considerably. Of the two, I'm most confident in trusting TH for now, as I'm seeing a more involved play style from him rather than from MM, whose posts of late have rung pretty false to me. MM does not seem interested in defending himself or seeking out mafia, whereas at least TH has been making a show of looking for Kiras and helping detectives. A little voice in the back of my head is stuck wondering though if perhaps this back-and-forth love story they have going is designed to make us trust one or the other. Perhaps they are two unlynchables on the same team going after each other in an effort to help themselves get their win conditions accomplished.

Matahari - I'm getting odd vibes from her and might do a specific re-read of her. I'm wondering Mata, why is it you trust me?

Juliets - I'm noticing a lot of "can you please post the case on X again I seem to have forgotten it." In regards to my own experience, these posts from JC are often in regards to conversations we've already had, and cases that she has commented on. Pingy, but nothing I would stick a vote on just yet.

FZ. - I will be re-reading her shortly.

Black Rock - Not sold on her being bad as much as I was previously. Mostly due to the clusterfuck bringing more interesting suspects to light

Boomslang - That vote for bea was the absolute most noteworthy thing from him I can remember all game.

If my theory that TH And MM are Shinigami on the same team is true, Then the MM voters are worth a look.

Matahari wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Some cursory thoughts while I continue to read:

Boo Vs. ...Well, Kinda Everybody? - I've been reading boo as genuine thus far, even if he was wrong about Bea. Boo has always struck me as the sort of player to be very confident (to a fault perhaps) in his suspects. His tunnel vision is perhaps he most obvious flaw, and I'm interested to see how his suspicions develop.

MM vs. TH - They've both survived lynches, so that narrows down who they could be quite considerably. Of the two, I'm most confident in trusting TH for now, as I'm seeing a more involved play style from him rather than from MM, whose posts of late have rung pretty false to me. MM does not seem interested in defending himself or seeking out mafia, whereas at least TH has been making a show of looking for Kiras and helping detectives. A little voice in the back of my head is stuck wondering though if perhaps this back-and-forth love story they have going is designed to make us trust one or the other. Perhaps they are two unlynchables on the same team going after each other in an effort to help themselves get their win conditions accomplished.

Matahari - I'm getting odd vibes from her and might do a specific re-read of her. I'm wondering Mata, why is it you trust me?

Juliets - I'm noticing a lot of "can you please post the case on X again I seem to have forgotten it." In regards to my own experience, these posts from JC are often in regards to conversations we've already had, and cases that she has commented on. Pingy, but nothing I would stick a vote on just yet.

FZ. - I will be re-reading her shortly.

Black Rock - Not sold on her being bad as much as I was previously. Mostly due to the clusterfuck bringing more interesting suspects to light

Boomslang - That vote for bea was the absolute most noteworthy thing from him I can remember all game.

If my theory that TH And MM are Shinigami on the same team is true, Then the MM voters are worth a look.

Two reasons, although I'm aware that you could fool me. First is the gut thing, I've looked for certain tells that I associate with your baddie game. I've seen none, if I do, I would put you back in the gray or baddie section. As I've explained earlier, I am not putting total faith in the gut stuff yet, because ppl change up their game over time. But the second thing was something you posted earlier in the game, that I don't think you would have posted if you were bad.

If you say or do anything that sounds false to me, I would question it. It just hasn't happened yet.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:And don't lump me in the same category as MM y'all. That guy's not helping at all and isn't afraid to make it obvious. I've survived a lynch, but I'm playing a completely different game than he is.

Just 'cause I'm not trying to 'help' you doesn't mean I'm not helping.

thellama73 wrote:If you were unlynchable, why would you say "don't lynch me, I'm unlynchable" ? It doesn't make any sense. MM and TH just absorbed the lynch and have largely been left alone ever since. If FZ had such a role, why wouldn't she follow their lead? FZ has been very passionate and convincing in her defense, but I am just not buying it. The behavior doesn't add up with what would make sense.

FZ. wrote:First of all, why isn't anyone concerned that Epi said he thinks MM is a shinigami after the vote was closed? If he thought it was a waste of vote, shouldn't he have tried to tell us not to vote there? Yeah, he said vote me, but he didn't say he thought MM was a waste of time. It seems very reasonable to conclude that he doesn't care if we waste lynches. In his eyes, either we waste a lynch, or lynch a detective (me).

Epignosis wrote:Read this. I added the pink.

FZ. wrote:First of all, why isn't anyone concerned that Epi said he thinks MM is a shinigami after the vote was closed? If he thought it was a waste of vote, shouldn't he have tried to tell us not to vote there? Yeah, he said vote me, but he didn't say he thought MM was a waste of time. It seems very reasonable to conclude that he doesn't care if we waste lynches. In his eyes, either we waste a lynch, or lynch a detective (me).

Either we waste a lynch OR we lynch a detective (specifically FZ.). That was Night 7 after MM didn't flip.

Now, from where I sit, lynching a detective is worse than wasting a lynch, but it is still wasting a lynch. However, in the above post, FZ. differentiated between the two, implying that lynching a detective isn't wasting a lynch. Now she would have us believe that lynching her is wasting a lynch.

I love me some conjunctions.

Epignosis wrote:That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

Great, so do you want to vote for me or not?
And no offence, but I hope the baddies will be as clueless as you

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

Great, so do you want to vote for me or not?
And no offence, but I hope the baddies will be as clueless as you

None taken. How clueless are you?

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

Great, so do you want to vote for me or not?
And no offence, but I hope the baddies will be as clueless as you

None taken. How clueless are you?

I think I'm very clueless, because spending so much time defending myself (8 freagin' days), has left me with very little motivation left to actually understand what's going on here

FZ. wrote:Second, am I wrong, or is Near the only detective who can't be lynched (other than L, but then someone dies instead of him)? Doesn't this makes the likelihood of MM being bad pretty high?
I'm not sure I get how the mechanics work here, but how are we supposed to get unlynchable people to die?

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That you are Misa Amane and that you have given up your death note to preserve a 4-person voting bloc.

Great, so do you want to vote for me or not?
And no offence, but I hope the baddies will be as clueless as you

None taken. How clueless are you?

I think I'm very clueless, because spending so much time defending myself (8 freagin' days), has left me with very little motivation left to actually understand what's going on here

Well, lucky for you, you'll have three Days in which you won't have to defend yourself.

By the way, there was a second part to that last post I quoted and colored, but I left it off just to see what you would say:

FZ. wrote:Second, am I wrong, or is Near the only detective who can't be lynched (other than L, but then someone dies instead of him)? Doesn't this makes the likelihood of MM being bad pretty high?
I'm not sure I get how the mechanics work here, but how are we supposed to get unlynchable people to die?

juliets wrote:I am convinced by the statistical work that was done that I should vote for FZ. unless there was a flaw that I skipped over when reading. I read all of Mata and didn't see what I was expecting to see so I can't vote there today. We only have 20 minutes left to vote - is everyone aware of that?

juliets wrote:I am convinced by the statistical work that was done that I should vote for FZ. unless there was a flaw that I skipped over when reading. I read all of Mata and didn't see what I was expecting to see so I can't vote there today. We only have 20 minutes left to vote - is everyone aware of that?

juliets wrote:I am convinced by the statistical work that was done that I should vote for FZ.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:And don't lump me in the same category as MM y'all. That guy's not helping at all and isn't afraid to make it obvious. I've survived a lynch, but I'm playing a completely different game than he is.

Just 'cause I'm not trying to 'help' you doesn't mean I'm not helping.

In fact. Give me one good reason why I should help you Mr. Death God. You are the cause of all of my struggles.

Turnip Head wrote:

juliets wrote:I am convinced by the statistical work that was done that I should vote for FZ.

Juliets, I've never seen you make decisions like this. Are Epi's numbers the only reason you're considering an FZ vote? What's your read of her?

Ricochet wrote:I'll have to chime in bit by bit, to every topic, because this afternoon I have to do test preparations and I'll be home late this evening and won't be spending as much time online as usual afterwards either.

Not sure I like Bass's response to boo.
Bass stated his top two suspects and players he'd vote for today are TH and MM.
He says he knows (?) their roles are "non-Kiras that can survive", but still doesn't see why they shouldn't be voted again.

If he claims TH and MM are unlynchable non-Kiras, then we have the following options:
- TH and/or MM are Shinigami. They cannot be lynched at all, only outed upon a second vote.
- TH and/or MM are Near/Mello. They cannot be lynched until L dies.

Judging by this, any result from lynching TH and MM again will result in another no lynch (with or without an outing) aka the least effective lynch result possible for the detectives.

So my questions are:
Why did Bass exclude the variants that TH and MM might be unlynchable Kiras (Light or Misa if they give up DN ownership under lynch pressure, or Higuchi), and
If Bass thinks TH and MM are unlynchable non-Kiras, why does he think a non-lynch result is the best option to go with

Bass also stated Llama as his third suspect and player to vote for (not more important than TH/MM, though), but I think his reasoning is too meta. "Llama pose a question I myself pose in a previous game where the answer was Llama, so what if / maybe / perhaps / etc. Llama pose himself a smokescreen question with the answer being again himself".

---

Boo, what do you make of bea getting killed? Don't think I've seen a reaction to it from you. You were pretty adamant in your belief that she is Light. I know you are currently searching for a potential Mikami / Symphatizer, but how does this kill change your beliefs in who Light might be.

---

I really have to ponder the most on Epig's numbers and FZ's rebuttal, but picking up some of her ideas from the latter:
"So, if we agree that if Russ got me role checked and got a baddie role, his vote would depend on whether that role could be lynched or not." I suppose this could be true.
"If he got an unlynchable role, he'd say he thinks I'm bad, but he doesn't think I should be voted." I suppose this could be true.
"The only way he'd vote me is if actually got Mikami or whatever baddie role that can be lynched." Here's where I'm not so sure. If we agree Light/Misa would relinquish their DN under lynch pressure and become temporarily unlynchable, are you suggesting we shouldn't even attempt to lynch them because it would be pointless? Why? And what other "baddie role that can be lynched" is there, besides Mikami?

My ideas are the following:
- If Russ was Mogi and checked you and got a bad role that can't be lynched at all right now (Higuchi, Ryuk, Rem) or Sidoh, he may have indeed tried to suggest we pursue another lynch.
- If Russ was Mogi and checked you and got a bad role that can be lynched (Mikami), he would have 100% suggested we pursue lynching you.
- If Russ was Mogi and checked you and got a bad role that might fail to be lynched right now (Light, Misa), he might have still suggested we pursue lynching you.

Unfortunately there are secrets to Mogi's role that have yet not been deciphered, as to make perhaps more sense of his tactics.

---

linki: Llama, if you think there's no way she's an unlynchable player, do you think she's Mikami? If not, would you still vote to lynch her?

linki: FZ, you've outed yourself as an unlynchable or as a certain role?

Each topic free to snip.

DharmaHelper wrote:Some cursory thoughts while I continue to read:

Boo Vs. ...Well, Kinda Everybody? - I've been reading boo as genuine thus far, even if he was wrong about Bea. Boo has always struck me as the sort of player to be very confident (to a fault perhaps) in his suspects. His tunnel vision is perhaps he most obvious flaw, and I'm interested to see how his suspicions develop.

MM vs. TH - They've both survived lynches, so that narrows down who they could be quite considerably. Of the two, I'm most confident in trusting TH for now, as I'm seeing a more involved play style from him rather than from MM, whose posts of late have rung pretty false to me. MM does not seem interested in defending himself or seeking out mafia, whereas at least TH has been making a show of looking for Kiras and helping detectives. A little voice in the back of my head is stuck wondering though if perhaps this back-and-forth love story they have going is designed to make us trust one or the other. Perhaps they are two unlynchables on the same team going after each other in an effort to help themselves get their win conditions accomplished.

Matahari - I'm getting odd vibes from her and might do a specific re-read of her. I'm wondering Mata, why is it you trust me?

Juliets - I'm noticing a lot of "can you please post the case on X again I seem to have forgotten it." In regards to my own experience, these posts from JC are often in regards to conversations we've already had, and cases that she has commented on. Pingy, but nothing I would stick a vote on just yet.

FZ. - I will be re-reading her shortly.

Black Rock - Not sold on her being bad as much as I was previously. Mostly due to the clusterfuck bringing more interesting suspects to light

Boomslang - That vote for bea was the absolute most noteworthy thing from him I can remember all game.

If my theory that TH And MM are Shinigami on the same team is true, Then the MM voters are worth a look.

Turnip Head wrote:I didn't interpret FZs post the same way you did Boom but I can see how you arrived at that conclusion. That's the one post from FZ that's a little questionable IMO. However, if she has a role such as one she's hinting at, her concerns in that post could be warranted. What I can't figure out is if she actually accusing Epi and Llama of something or if she's just throwing it out there for us to ponder ourselves, because she named no names... If her intention was the latter, it doesn't feel genuine. But I haven't made my mind up there yet. Further clarification from FZ might be needed on that specific point.

But BR and juliets... what exactly do you guys not get? I'm confused by your confusion... What FZ said seemed very clear to me.

DharmaHelper wrote:What does everyone think about the possibility that TH and MM have staged themselves as opposing forces?

juliets wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

juliets wrote:I am convinced by the statistical work that was done that I should vote for FZ.

Juliets, I've never seen you make decisions like this. Are Epi's numbers the only reason you're considering an FZ vote? What's your read of her?

What do you mean by the decisions part? And I am attracted to factual data. I understand the facts also say there is a slim chance that FZ. is an unlynchable civ which is what she claims to be. On the other side of the coin there is her getting mad with the fu but as been pointed out she was getting mad for no reason if she is unlynchable. I can be talked out of voting for her, she was just the best I had at this moment in time. By tomorrow things could be different but not if we spend the whole day on FZ.

Black Rock wrote:If she outed herself I didn't get it.

DharmaHelper wrote:What does everyone think about the possibility that TH and MM have staged themselves as opposing forces?

Turnip Head wrote:

juliets wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:

juliets wrote:I am convinced by the statistical work that was done that I should vote for FZ.

Juliets, I've never seen you make decisions like this. Are Epi's numbers the only reason you're considering an FZ vote? What's your read of her?

What do you mean by the decisions part? And I am attracted to factual data. I understand the facts also say there is a slim chance that FZ. is an unlynchable civ which is what she claims to be. On the other side of the coin there is her getting mad with the fu but as been pointed out she was getting mad for no reason if she is unlynchable. I can be talked out of voting for her, she was just the best I had at this moment in time. By tomorrow things could be different but not if we spend the whole day on FZ.

I don't consider Epi's analysis to be "factual data". It certainly provides strong support toward suspecting FZ, but I didn't feel it would be something you would solely base a vote on. I don't think such a thing as factual data exists in mafia anyway outside of blatant role outing/info dumping and I don't think you do either. I consider you to be a player that would consider such evidence as Epi's numbers, sure, but that you would put it in context of your own read of the player. It surprised me that you seem willing to follow Epi's logic, which still leaves holes for being wrong, without considering your individual read of the player. Especially when the player in question has been as talkative as FZ has been. I feel like you would want to support Epi's numbers with how you've felt about things FZ has said herself, and how those things make you feel. I'm not talking just about the "FU" post here, but rather the sum of your read of her. She's left plenty of material to be dissected.

But while we're talking about it, the "FU" still makes sense to me if she's got a civvie role that can't be lynched. She would still feel frustrated that she was being wrongly accused, even if she would ultimately survive. I don't think a civ-FZ likes wasting lynches on civs, especially if the civ in question is herself.

Black Rock wrote:If she outed herself I didn't get it.

It's not the she outed herself, she just made it somewhat clear what would happen if we lynch her. There are baddie and civvie roles that fit what she said. It's up to us whether we believe her or not of course.

Turnip Head wrote:But while we're talking about it, the "FU" still makes sense to me if she's got a civvie role that can't be lynched. She would still feel frustrated that she was being wrongly accused, even if she would ultimately survive. I don't think a civ-FZ likes wasting lynches on civs, especially if the civ in question is herself.

Epignosis wrote:Imagine if she knew MM won't be lynched. Read her that way. Tell me what you think.

juliets wrote:Who are you going to vote and why?