The Syndicate

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:37 pm So I'm gonna assume whomever Bearo is, he knows Epi fairly well so I think we can discount the new people there. But, at this point we should have a mafia player to hunt right?

why does the bear know Epi well?

Rej wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:41 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:37 pm So I'm gonna assume whomever Bearo is, he knows Epi fairly well so I think we can discount the new people there. But, at this point we should have a mafia player to hunt right?

why does the bear know Epi well?

Day 2 bear post. It’s not a strong answer, but I felt like my PM was vaguely familiar and Jack’s did as well. Could be a trick. Not hard at all to fake. But preponderance of evidence suggests syndicate regular.

COO! (So Okosan's thoughts. If we're still looking for Monokuma then Okosan feels we should be looking outside of the two wagons yesterday entirely. Monokuma ideally would want to blend and hide their vote so that we don't get any info based of that. If that's what Monokuma is trying to do they have two options. Option 1 involves what Okosna thinks happened where they vote for someone completely worthless. This would be the case if there's going to be a tie or it's going to be close like it was yesterday. Option two is to just bandwagon on a vote that's really far ahead. Aka not what happened yesterday.)

Cooooooooo! (Following this logic Sloonei's vote yesterday looks really bad. At the end of the day when it was essentially decided that either Epi or Dom was getting lynched, they all of a sudden threw their vote on JackOfHearts for no real reason. So this is where Okosan is sussing atm.)

Cooo? (If we're going for people who got converted there's not much that we can really do unless people out results they've gotten (such as who was roleblocked and whatnot) but we can't really do that because Monokuma will just kill us all. So unless MacDougal suspected anyone in particular that's nearly impossible to find right now. If there's two maf the second one might not want to lynch the first one, but that's about all we've got)

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:40 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:32 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:28 pm It doesn't work. It assumes the bear believed you. Sloonei almost never believes you, no matter what the message says. Simple as that.

The bear seemed to believe me.

I said “Recruit *character name* ” and Monokuma said he wouldn’t recruit me yet.

So maybe I’m a sucker but if the bear believed me, Sloonei isn’t the bear.

COOO! (Btw if anyone ever tells Monokuma their character name they 100% will never be recruited unless it's a really good role for him to have. It's infinitely better just to keep you alive and soup kill you in the future)

Interesting take. It’s wrong: if I were the bear and could 100 percent guarantee that Jack were telling the truth (easy, just ask for role secret), I’d always recruit him. Efficient? Probably not, but I don’t think the soup kill is anything other than an end of game tool and a protection against mass claims.

Coooooo! (Also for whoever mentioned it Okosan can hire a translator in specific circumstances where he needs to speak English. Wouldn't want you to clear Okosan unnecessarily )

Also I said this before, but mass RB should go off tonight no matter what. Just to reiterate this to whoever has that role. Also not sure if it’s a town role or has condidtipns or whatever.

K in the next few hours i'm gonna decide who out of DDL and Okosan I'll vote

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:51 pm Coooooo! (Also for whoever mentioned it Okosan can hire a translator in specific circumstances where he needs to speak English. Wouldn't want you to clear Okosan unnecessarily )

You’re town for other reasons.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:51 pm

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:40 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:32 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:28 pm It doesn't work. It assumes the bear believed you. Sloonei almost never believes you, no matter what the message says. Simple as that.

The bear seemed to believe me.

I said “Recruit *character name* ” and Monokuma said he wouldn’t recruit me yet.

So maybe I’m a sucker but if the bear believed me, Sloonei isn’t the bear.

COOO! (Btw if anyone ever tells Monokuma their character name they 100% will never be recruited unless it's a really good role for him to have. It's infinitely better just to keep you alive and soup kill you in the future)

Interesting take. It’s wrong: if I were the bear and could 100 percent guarantee that Jack were telling the truth (easy, just ask for role secret), I’d always recruit him. Efficient? Probably not, but I don’t think the soup kill is anything other than an end of game tool and a protection against mass claims.

Cooo! (Why not leave Jack alone in that case? Monokuma will always be able to recruit someone every night so it's not like he's desperate for it. Okosan doesn't think he really particularly care which people he gets, and it allows Monokuma to just throw Jack on the Soup kill pile if he ever needs to end the game faster)

COOOOO! (Furthermore if Jack stays alive it starts to look more and more sus to everyone and can very easily lead to a mislynch)

Coo! (Oh hmm Okosan missed the part where Okosan said that Sloonei probably isn't Monokuma. If that's the case he still feels we should be looking at people outside the vote. Sloonei just seemed the most sus with that weird late vote)

Okosan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:32 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:14 pm @Trustworthy Liberal hasn’t posted yet, I think. So I voted for him.

COOOOOO? (Do you not think Monokuma would want to vote and participate early so that they have some say in who gets lynched? That way it is less likely to fall on them)

Okosan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:13 pm COOOO! (Alright so the reason that Okosan is sussing TH is TH is doing the exact things that Okosan would see Monokuma as doing. Voting people randomly and early to see what sticks (starting a BW, jumping on Epi's), hanging around to be able to influence how things go, but overall not saying a whole lot.)

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:48 pm COO! (So Okosan's thoughts. If we're still looking for Monokuma then Okosan feels we should be looking outside of the two wagons yesterday entirely. Monokuma ideally would want to blend and hide their vote so that we don't get any info based of that. If that's what Monokuma is trying to do they have two options. Option 1 involves what Okosna thinks happened where they vote for someone completely worthless. This would be the case if there's going to be a tie or it's going to be close like it was yesterday. Option two is to just bandwagon on a vote that's really far ahead. Aka not what happened yesterday.)

[VOTE: Okosan ] aubergine

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:58 pm Coo! (Oh hmm Okosan missed the part where Okosan said that Sloonei probably isn't Monokuma. If that's the case he still feels we should be looking at people outside the vote. Sloonei just seemed the most sus with that weird late vote)

Change your tune, my airborne friend.

if it's not okosan i'm scum claiming

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:54 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:51 pm

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:40 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:32 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:28 pm It doesn't work. It assumes the bear believed you. Sloonei almost never believes you, no matter what the message says. Simple as that.

The bear seemed to believe me.

I said “Recruit *character name* ” and Monokuma said he wouldn’t recruit me yet.

So maybe I’m a sucker but if the bear believed me, Sloonei isn’t the bear.

COOO! (Btw if anyone ever tells Monokuma their character name they 100% will never be recruited unless it's a really good role for him to have. It's infinitely better just to keep you alive and soup kill you in the future)

Interesting take. It’s wrong: if I were the bear and could 100 percent guarantee that Jack were telling the truth (easy, just ask for role secret), I’d always recruit him. Efficient? Probably not, but I don’t think the soup kill is anything other than an end of game tool and a protection against mass claims.

Cooo! (Why not leave Jack alone in that case? Monokuma will always be able to recruit someone every night so it's not like he's desperate for it. Okosan doesn't think he really particularly care which people he gets, and it allows Monokuma to just throw Jack on the Soup kill pile if he ever needs to end the game faster)

COOOOO! (Furthermore if Jack stays alive it starts to look more and more sus to everyone and can very easily lead to a mislynch)

I like Jack. I’m guessing Monokuma benefits if the mafia does better, and Jack is a good scum player and a high poster. Is it optimal? No, but I think a lot of players who believe Jack’s claim on role would recruit him anyways.

Okosan dun goofed and is covering his tracks

We should have an actual bonafide mafia player today. We don’t need to devote all our effort to hunting bears.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:06 pm Okosan dun goofed and is covering his tracks

I do not see it.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:06 pm Okosan dun goofed and is covering his tracks

Explain. Pretend I can’t read. I think I see what you’re seeing but I’ll take some explanation.

Coooooo! (Lol imagine thinking Okosan goofed)

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:07 pm We should have an actual bonafide mafia player today. We don’t need to devote all our effort to hunting bears.

1 mafia player likely with no information isn’t a bonafide mafia player.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:08 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:07 pm We should have an actual bonafide mafia player today. We don’t need to devote all our effort to hunting bears.

1 mafia player likely with no information isn’t a bonafide mafia player.

It’s still somebody who performed a kill and is now trying to evade detection.

day one : okosan thinks monokuma is gonna hop on / start a bandwagon / sheep people's votes on wagons (epi's vote)

day two : okosan thinks we should not pay attention to the biggest wagons

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:11 pm day one : okosan thinks monokuma is gonna hop on / start a bandwagon / sheep people's votes on wagons (epi's vote)

day two : okosan thinks we should not pay attention to the biggest wagons

That reads more like a progression of thoughts than a goof.

Okosan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:32 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:14 pm @Trustworthy Liberal hasn’t posted yet, I think. So I voted for him.

COOOOOO? (Do you not think Monokuma would want to vote and [font=]participate early so that they have some say in who gets lynched?[/font] That way it is less likely to fall on them)

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:48 pm COO! (So Okosan's thoughts. If we're still looking for Monokuma then Okosan feels we should be looking outside of the two wagons yesterday entirely. Monokuma ideally would want to blend and hide their vote so that we don't get any info based of that. If that's what Monokuma is trying to do they have two options. Option 1 involves what Okosna thinks happened where they vote for someone completely worthless. This would be the case if there's going to be a tie or it's going to be close like it was yesterday. Option two is to just bandwagon on a vote that's really far ahead. Aka not what happened yesterday.)

Cooooooooo! (Following this logic Sloonei's vote yesterday looks really bad. At the end of the day when it was essentially decided that either Epi or Dom was getting lynched, they all of a sudden threw their vote on JackOfHearts for no real reason. So this is where Okosan is sussing atm.)

Cooo? (If we're going for people who got converted there's not much that we can really do unless people out results they've gotten (such as who was roleblocked and whatnot) but we can't really do that because Monokuma will just kill us all. So unless MacDougal suspected anyone in particular that's nearly impossible to find right now. If there's two maf the second one might not want to lynch the first one, but that's about all we've got)

nvm, the last post makes sense but the previous one doesn't

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:51 pm

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:40 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:32 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:28 pm It doesn't work. It assumes the bear believed you. Sloonei almost never believes you, no matter what the message says. Simple as that.

The bear seemed to believe me.

I said “Recruit *character name* ” and Monokuma said he wouldn’t recruit me yet.

So maybe I’m a sucker but if the bear believed me, Sloonei isn’t the bear.

COOO! (Btw if anyone ever tells Monokuma their character name they 100% will never be recruited unless it's a really good role for him to have. It's infinitely better just to keep you alive and soup kill you in the future)

Interesting take. It’s wrong: if I were the bear and could 100 percent guarantee that Jack were telling the truth (easy, just ask for role secret), I’d always recruit him. Efficient? Probably not, but I don’t think the soup kill is anything other than an end of game tool and a protection against mass claims.

Lol yeah cause I’m unlynchable and funny.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:12 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:11 pm day one : okosan thinks monokuma is gonna hop on / start a bandwagon / sheep people's votes on wagons (epi's vote)

day two : okosan thinks we should not pay attention to the biggest wagons

That reads more like a progression of thoughts than a goof.

It's a direct contradiction, not a progression. It's a full 180.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:20 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:12 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:11 pm day one : okosan thinks monokuma is gonna hop on / start a bandwagon / sheep people's votes on wagons (epi's vote)

day two : okosan thinks we should not pay attention to the biggest wagons

That reads more like a progression of thoughts than a goof.

It's a direct contradiction, not a progression. It's a full 180.

I do not see it that way, and I also do not regard “contradiction” as a condemning thing. Civilians can contradict themselves all the time.

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:54 pm COOOOO! (Furthermore if Jack stays alive it starts to look more and more sus to everyone and can very easily lead to a mislynch )

Voting people randomly and early, starting bandwagons, jumping to bandwagons > monokuma mentality (Day one)

Overall idea, the intention that comes out of this mentality hunting is that Monokuma wants to have influence

Voting someone completely worthless, that has NO VOTES, bandwagoning on a vote that's really far ahead (those already contradict each other) > day two mentality

He also mentions that someone would like to HIDE and BLEND IN. Those two things are already making someone to stand out and have an influence on things, which is what he thought of on day one. But not anymore.

"we should be looking outside of the two wagons yesterday entirely" -> "Monokuma ideally would want to blend and hide their vote" -> clash of mentalities, one is hiding, one is standing out. In the same sentence.

Fuck man I swear this is good but my brain is burned and I suck with explaining stuff anyway but trust me on this, I think I'm really on to something...God damn it

He's changing his mentality in order to further his voting agenda is my point.

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:20 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:12 pm

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:11 pm day one : okosan thinks monokuma is gonna hop on / start a bandwagon / sheep people's votes on wagons (epi's vote)

day two : okosan thinks we should not pay attention to the biggest wagons

That reads more like a progression of thoughts than a goof.

It's a direct contradiction, not a progression. It's a full 180.

Coo? (Imahine thinking the things Okosan said are mutually exclusive. Yes Okosan thinks they would probably want to try to get on a large bandwagon if at all possible. But if you read Okosan's multi paragraph thoughts post he discusses a second option where the votes look more like yesterday abd it's extremely split. In that case Monokuma being in the vote is extremely iffy as narrows down who it can be. In that case being off in the middle of nowhere like Sloonei was is more beneficial)

Cooooooo? (Finally, Okosan doesn't see why these are mutally exclusive. Okosan doesn't know if this is the case because Okosan is out on mobile at the moment, but is it not possible people could start out hoping to get a big wagon and then pivot when they see it isn't happen?)

Monokuma wanting to blend and hide his vote is only contradictory if there are big tied wagons.

His monokuma hunting mentality from day one keeps clashing with this new prospect of things, he's trying to maintain consistency but his real intention just sticks out like a sore thumb. At least to me, cuz it doesn't really for you and I don't know why.

If there was a progression, he wouldn't keep coming back to his belief that scum have to hide in order to present his current reads. It's literally a clash of mentalities, this ain't no progression.

meh whatever fuck this

good luck finding my role okosan

there's a tomorrow anyway.

i obviously can't explain it properly in order to lynch his ass but at least now you have a thorn in your rib cage.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:31 pm Monokuma wanting to blend and hide his vote is only contradictory if there are big tied wagons.

blend and hide are the same thing. the standing out is contradictory lol.

Cooo? (Furthurmore Ted if Okosan was scum why wouldn't he just find a reason to jump on DDL? Yes it's so much better to go against the grain of what, in this scenario, is almost entirely town)

tedxtr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:28 pm Voting people randomly and early, starting bandwagons, jumping to bandwagons > monokuma mentality (Day one)

Overall idea, the intention that comes out of this mentality hunting is that Monokuma wants to have influence

Voting someone completely worthless, that has NO VOTES, bandwagoning on a vote that's really far ahead (those already contradict each other) > day two mentality

He also mentions that someone would like to HIDE and BLEND IN. Those two things are already making someone to stand out and have an influence on things, which is what he thought of on day one. But not anymore.

"we should be looking outside of the two wagons yesterday entirely" -> "Monokuma ideally would want to blend and hide their vote" -> clash of mentalities, one is hiding, one is standing out. In the same sentence.

Fuck man I swear this is good but my brain is burned and I suck with explaining stuff anyway but trust me on this, I think I'm really on to something...God damn it

I see what you didn't get, because I'm shit at explaining, so I'll rephrase.

Blending and hiding are the same thing. I was saying the "two things are already contradictory" referring to voting someone worthless, that has no votes and bandwagonning on a vote that's really far ahead, meaning that those actions are already contradicting his belief that monokuma should be hiding and blending in.

And the belief and those actions were brought up by him, on the same day. which was toDay.

Okosan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:39 pm Cooo? (Furthurmore Ted if Okosan was scum why wouldn't he just find a reason to jump on DDL? Yes it's so much better to go against the grain of what, in this scenario, is almost entirely town)

That's all wifom and there's like 7 hours something til EoD

But I thought you believed that monokuma would be voting a worthless wagon and not going for the big boy.

DDL is neither far ahead and sloonei is a worthless wagon (no votes yet, he only had one)

so

Coo? (Oh wait fair enough the last point Okodan made doesnt count. He thought way more people wanted DDL than 3)

I never claimed that Monokuma would do that, that's your belief and you're attacking me already based on a fallacious question in and of itself. I'm not entering your little Wifomy world. That's a loaded question that basically has no meaning and doesn't even clear you. There's tons of reasons someone would do / wouldn't do something, you're literally saying "If I was scum I'd vote jack (just an example). I'm not voting jack. So how am I monokuma?"

that's literally it.

Coo? (Lol Okosan already retracted the last thing he said)

Cooooo? Coo! (Thanks for the sus though. If Okosan got too towny there he would've gotten night killed and lost)

Lmfao

[mention]Rej[/mention] fam read my iso it's time we worked together

[mention]sig[/mention] [mention]Turnip Head[/mention] [mention]Trustworthy Liberal[/mention] [mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]

Voting someone completely worthless, that has NO VOTES, bandwagoning on a vote that's really far ahead (those already contradict each other) > day two mentality

Jesus.

He’s saying it’s either or.

2 vote wagon
3 vote wagon
6 vote wagon <- vote here so the 6 vote wagon looks like a forgone 7 vote wagon and nobody notices you don’t have a vote

3 vote wagon
3 vote wagon
4 vote wagon
0 vote offwagon <- or vote here so your vote doesn’t come near a tie and reveal you don’t have a vote.

It’s not a contradiction. It’s alternative strategies.

I'm not talking numbers jack jesus christ

he even got damn agreed with me, he didn't refute anything, he just cherrypicked stuff.