Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Maybe not. Would you call Tangrowth one of your bigger suspects? How do you think she looks in general?Made wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:20 amI mean she lead the counter wagon against me when owner almost took off. I'm not very well read thread wise, but like that's never townie, right?
In this case I temper this even if I accept the principle of rule of 3 (meh) just because of context. Those three people are nutella's longest Day 1 push (lost monkey), her EOD scream target (you), and the person she voted for (Made). Default.
noGuillotine wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:11 am@JaggedJimmyJay @MacDougall is nutella a hellbusser?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:09 amIt'd be more of a "two people have similar claims and even if they're true one could be mafia" thing. I think it's technically possible that Allcrab, a town watcher, corroborated the true results of a mafia lost monkey. I wouldn't call it the most likely thing.Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:07 amLoMo claimed watcher before anyone else did, and his results are corroborated by Allcrab.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:01 amI view lost monkey and Martin as similar cases of "seems generally town to me, but a mechanical argument of some kind can be made against them so maybe".
thisAlison wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:15 amwhen i hydra'd with nutella in modern family we made a plan to bus TAT (the janitor), but when i went to play video games she CFDed elsewhere at EOD due to getting cold feet about the bus and wanting a townie to dieJaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:13 amI wouldn't reduce nutella to any single descriptor like that, but I do think she is capable of significant bussing. I think the more likely bussing/distancing from her on Day 1 would be in Act's direction though.Guillotine wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:11 am@JaggedJimmyJay @MacDougall is nutella a hellbusser?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:09 amIt'd be more of a "two people have similar claims and even if they're true one could be mafia" thing. I think it's technically possible that Allcrab, a town watcher, corroborated the true results of a mafia lost monkey. I wouldn't call it the most likely thing.Alison wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:07 amLoMo claimed watcher before anyone else did, and his results are corroborated by Allcrab.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:01 amI view lost monkey and Martin as similar cases of "seems generally town to me, but a mechanical argument of some kind can be made against them so maybe".
did you read seanzie's argument?Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:29 amThis was my assumption when I saw Dana's flip as well. It is not a guarantee and I don't mean to treat it as such, but I don't think any of us went into Night 3 thinking that Dana was going the nightkilled. I don't say that as anything resembling a slight against her. As you just said, there are players with more mechanical backing and thread credibility alike than her.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:25 am I think the mafia killed someone else and she got in the way.
If I remember correctly I came out of day 1 thinking Gnome was partnered with Nutella but the other 3 were not.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:48 amThe reason I ask this question is this:JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:58 am Act, Gnome, Made, and OC seem to form my premier suspect tier. Allcrab, bad bunny, lost monkey, and MartinGG99 would have to round out whoever's missing. This doesn't take any third party into consideration.
Are at least three mafia not contained above? I ask whoever cares to ponder.
Allcrab, lost monkey, and Martin all look town to me at face value. If I give Allcrab the nod, then I am generally inclined to do the same bad bunny given Allcrab's view.
If all of the above is correct, I need three mafia within [Act, Gnome, Made, and OC] or something has to be incorrect. It could be that three mafia are in that set if we're very fortuitous. These reads aren't without controversy though, especially if your name is Nanook.
She has good reads that make sense. She's promoting a healthy thread state.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:54 amWhat's the best reason to town read Alison?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:48 amThe reason I ask this question is this:JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 12:58 am Act, Gnome, Made, and OC seem to form my premier suspect tier. Allcrab, bad bunny, lost monkey, and MartinGG99 would have to round out whoever's missing. This doesn't take any third party into consideration.
Are at least three mafia not contained above? I ask whoever cares to ponder.
Allcrab, lost monkey, and Martin all look town to me at face value. If I give Allcrab the nod, then I am generally inclined to do the same bad bunny given Allcrab's view.
If all of the above is correct, I need three mafia within [Act, Gnome, Made, and OC] or something has to be incorrect. It could be that three mafia are in that set if we're very fortuitous. These reads aren't without controversy though, especially if your name is Nanook.
Do you remember how you felt about them on Day 4?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:29 am If I remember correctly I came out of day 1 thinking Gnome was partnered with Nutella but the other 3 were not.
I don't know what this refers to, so I'm gonna go with no.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:27 amdid you read seanzie's argument?Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:29 amThis was my assumption when I saw Dana's flip as well. It is not a guarantee and I don't mean to treat it as such, but I don't think any of us went into Night 3 thinking that Dana was going the nightkilled. I don't say that as anything resembling a slight against her. As you just said, there are players with more mechanical backing and thread credibility alike than her.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:25 am I think the mafia killed someone else and she got in the way.
Seanzie suggested Dana was most likely the literal mafia night kill target for having softed a protective role at the end of Day 3. I don't agree, but I'll let you judge.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:31 amI don't know what this refers to, so I'm gonna go with no.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:27 amdid you read seanzie's argument?Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:29 amThis was my assumption when I saw Dana's flip as well. It is not a guarantee and I don't mean to treat it as such, but I don't think any of us went into Night 3 thinking that Dana was going the nightkilled. I don't say that as anything resembling a slight against her. As you just said, there are players with more mechanical backing and thread credibility alike than her.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:25 am I think the mafia killed someone else and she got in the way.
this read actually makes me angrySloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:18 amHe was actively disagreeing with my nutella associative reads, and in that conversation he argued that nutella, as mafia, has trouble disguising her true intentions when she is casting suspicion on civilians.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:16 amI don't entirely follow. Do you mean this is to Mac's credit or something to think about in the other direction?
Part of me is worried that this is Mafia Mac painting a certain image of nutella to bolster the credit he can receive from his own interactions with nutella.
The exception to this count is a soft dig into an orangecrush post.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:32 am Act has made 13 posts in the first 11 hours of Day 4 with no more Dana alive to tunnel,
3 are snap votes.
9 are questions.
Mafia.
Oh. I saw that. I don't agree.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:33 amSeanzie suggested Dana was most likely the literal mafia night kill target for having softed a protective role at the end of Day 3. I don't agree, but I'll let you judge.Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:31 amI don't know what this refers to, so I'm gonna go with no.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:27 amdid you read seanzie's argument?Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:29 amThis was my assumption when I saw Dana's flip as well. It is not a guarantee and I don't mean to treat it as such, but I don't think any of us went into Night 3 thinking that Dana was going the nightkilled. I don't say that as anything resembling a slight against her. As you just said, there are players with more mechanical backing and thread credibility alike than her.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:25 am I think the mafia killed someone else and she got in the way.
I liked it less once I vocalized it, if that helps.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:33 amthis read actually makes me angrySloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:18 amHe was actively disagreeing with my nutella associative reads, and in that conversation he argued that nutella, as mafia, has trouble disguising her true intentions when she is casting suspicion on civilians.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:16 amI don't entirely follow. Do you mean this is to Mac's credit or something to think about in the other direction?
Part of me is worried that this is Mafia Mac painting a certain image of nutella to bolster the credit he can receive from his own interactions with nutella.
That doesn't make it invalid.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:33 amthis read actually makes me angrySloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:18 amHe was actively disagreeing with my nutella associative reads, and in that conversation he argued that nutella, as mafia, has trouble disguising her true intentions when she is casting suspicion on civilians.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:16 amI don't entirely follow. Do you mean this is to Mac's credit or something to think about in the other direction?
Part of me is worried that this is Mafia Mac painting a certain image of nutella to bolster the credit he can receive from his own interactions with nutella.
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 1:19 am There's a few mid-Day 1 interactions in act's ISO that center around nutella and Owner concurrently. I suppose they merit conversation if we are wondering whether or not to rule act out as a teammate of theirs.
#1. nutella gripes about objections to her use of the word "spicy." Act observes that Owner seems to be the only person taking issue with "spicy", and prods nutella about this. My kneejerk reaction was that this is a fairly pointed question for one teammate to throw at another. There isn't really a positive way for nutella to spin this, and it also calls added attention onto another teammate (Owner) in the process. Seems like an odd and risky thing to do if act is mafia here.Spoiler: show
#2. The most awkward for sure, Act responds to a read on nutella with a defense of Owner, thinking that she is the player being suspected. Promptly realizes her mistake and sheepishly ("lol") acknowledges it.Spoiler: show
On the one hand we can twist ourselves into a big warm pretzel trying to workout the minefield of associatives here in which Mafia Act was too eager to defend Mafia Owner that she didn't even realize the player being accused was Mafia nutella. The gang's all here and it looks goofy.
On the other hand, that feels like too silly of a mistake to make if all three of them are partners. nutella is probably the one in more danger at this point, and the defense of Owner does not seem at all unreasonable given Act's apparent familiarity with her meta.
And on some level, this read suggests to me that Act is Actively in thought with regards to Owner. She has just asked nutella to elaborate on Owner's objection to the word "spicy." So Act associating Owner's name with "the spicy comment" is both natural and reasonable.
#3. Act raises a small objection to Owner's suspicion of nutella, prodding her to develop the read further. Taking this post in conjunction with the previous two, I come away with an impression that Act is trying to discover a town read on Owner while also feeling out a new-to-her (I think?) player in nutella. Post #1 is purely interrogative. Post #2 is a favorable assessment of Owner based on meta. Post #3 is a piece of constructive criticism for Owner's nutella read. Act treats the two flipped wolves very differently here, and I think there is a visible difference in where she is mentally with regards to each of them as well in this moment.Spoiler: show
But I am open to an alternative version of events where Act suddenly found herself extra cognizant of her association with two of her teammates on Day 1 and tangled herself up in their mutual phony suspicion of one another: we already know that nutella and Owner staged their reads of one another. If two wolves are in on the act, why not a third?
Hardy har har Jay.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:31 amDo you remember how you felt about them on Day 4?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:29 am If I remember correctly I came out of day 1 thinking Gnome was partnered with Nutella but the other 3 were not.
yes it's like the one part of the game where I wasn't phoning it in and you're finding issue with it...Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:34 amI liked it less once I vocalized it, if that helps.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:33 amthis read actually makes me angrySloonei wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:18 amHe was actively disagreeing with my nutella associative reads, and in that conversation he argued that nutella, as mafia, has trouble disguising her true intentions when she is casting suspicion on civilians.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:16 amI don't entirely follow. Do you mean this is to Mac's credit or something to think about in the other direction?
Part of me is worried that this is Mafia Mac painting a certain image of nutella to bolster the credit he can receive from his own interactions with nutella.
Kinda nullish, as in nothing really pinged me and I'm just noticing that, and I don't like. fwiw I've only really been reading what I've been around for real time, which hasn't been much with you. but I feel like I've read enough post from you where, if you were Jay for example, I'd know how I feel about your slot but reading you this game has felt like I was reading an instruction booklet.
After Owner comes back to the thread and tells everyone she targeted JJJ and Gavial, we get an explanation from Allcrab.
Allcrab wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:49 am Oh just read Alison wants to do some dumb shit to me overnight w/e then I'll just say it though y'all dumb enough to probably be like "no way that true OMGBBQWTF he lying so hard" but yeah I'm the same role as Lomo I can verify his information is correct because I had the same target I was rolling around what this means for Lomo and how likely it is we really have two villagers with the same role he's definitely not lying because we got the same results and if we assuming JJJ was the kill target last night why tf would wolves watch the kill target seems like a waste so I'm like 95% on Lomo being a villager, lolme if I'm wrong tho.
The issue? Well, Owner didn't claim to target JJJ back when it was "extremely unlikely Owner did what they said they did". I asked her if she did, but she didn't answer.
I have wolfed with Guillo quite a lot tbh so feel free to ask me about things.Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:05 amHave you seen Guillo wolf before? (not including spoiled spectating)JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:01 amWhen it comes to a face value soul read, Guillotine looks more town to me than anyone alive.
Off-hand I do think there's more potential for Mac bussing than for Alison bussing just given the way nutella responded to his suspicion on Day 1. It was bizarre and carefree. I also think Mac is the type to lock me in a room with Gavial overnight. So I would at least consider it. The best case for Mac being town is that Day 1 progression wherein I think he probably did more than anyone else to kill nutella.
These posts look fine, nothing I would clear someone over, but sure, Allcrab expressed suspicion on Owner.
Super duper weak vote though. Literally, Allcrab was primed to move away from Owner if the opportunity presented itself. Townpoints? meh.
I don't typically engage in this kind of speculation since everything depends on context, but why not.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:42 am If you were mafia and you were in the POE along with your entire team. What would you do?
Lead an assembly line of chops on every name in the POE that isn't my teammate.MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:42 amIf you were mafia and outside the POE but your team were in the POE. what would you do?
Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:39 am So I just found something interesting... D2, Allcrab votes Owner, citing that it is unlikely that Owner did what they said they did. At this point, all Owner had claimed was that she was a fruit vendor who gave a fruit to someone.
After Owner comes back to the thread and tells everyone she targeted JJJ and Gavial, we get an explanation from Allcrab.
Allcrab wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 8:49 am Oh just read Alison wants to do some dumb shit to me overnight w/e then I'll just say it though y'all dumb enough to probably be like "no way that true OMGBBQWTF he lying so hard" but yeah I'm the same role as Lomo I can verify his information is correct because I had the same target I was rolling around what this means for Lomo and how likely it is we really have two villagers with the same role he's definitely not lying because we got the same results and if we assuming JJJ was the kill target last night why tf would wolves watch the kill target seems like a waste so I'm like 95% on Lomo being a villager, lolme if I'm wrong tho.The issue? Well, Owner didn't claim to target JJJ back when it was "extremely unlikely Owner did what they said they did". I asked her if she did, but she didn't answer.
Allcrab dripping with TMI.
Lowkey I think there is a chance this is openwolfing and Mac is like "wtf? How has Seanzie figured all these damned weird things out? Gotta try to pocket that sum'mabitch".
Hi! am I missing something big right now? and If so, how stupid do I look?
If I was mafia and I was in the POE and my team was fucked I would probably play mini games like "try to get a towncore chopped with a red check" or maybe I'd bus the fuck out of someone in my team to try to get out of the POE. I think others would be prone to concession though. I'm not really seeing concession anywhere. Who in the POE looks conceded?MacDougall wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 2:42 am Let's do a fun exercise.
If you were mafia and you were in the POE along with your entire team. What would you do?
If you were mafia and outside the POE but your team were in the POE. what would you do?
etc.