The Syndicate

Glad to know I'm not alone. Been feeling like I'm on an island this game.

well i had the uwu trio of u lily and porcha town on d1, so ur still on the uwu island for me. that being said i havent put much efforts into my reads so far

I feel bad I didnt have a chance to get back on and find lily...I sucks.

oh u tunneled lily?

Not really tunneled. I didn't end on her. Just thought she was sus early.

In the day

what was sus about her?

I dunno I just didn't like how she was paying and her entrance and how she was treating me but looking back I think I'm just an idiot lol

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?

Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:01 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?

Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough

I don't believe you.

[VOTE: sprityo] aubergine

What right does anyone have to object?

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:09 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:01 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?

Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough

I don't believe you.

Yes you do.


Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:39 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:09 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:01 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 9:02 am @falcon45ca you woofin'?

Nah, I'll get into this game soon enough

I don't believe you.

Yes you do.


Or at least, you don't REALLY doubt me...it is not militant doubt, more passive in nature

This is true, but I've got my eyes on you.



all of them.

That's a lot of eyes

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:56 pm That's a lot of eyes

ALL OF THEM

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:56 pm That's a lot of eyes

Yeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.




And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription

Porscha wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:56 am

pyxxy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:22 pm

Michelle wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:28 pm It's ok Pyxxy, colour PJ in the next though ^^

Your VC is very useful, did you have time to analyze it?

Let me know if there are more NPC hardclaims that I missed, I don't think I'll color any town claims though just fyi

I think it's interesting Manny and Lumi both hardclaimed NPC pretty fast on D1 and have been consistent in their voting behavior since. I would also read them as NPCs personally.

By comparison, SilverKeith going D1 no vote, D2 DrWigly, D3 vote DrWigly, D4 no vote is interesting, purely because it's an NPC claim behaving differently on different days. I don't read SK as wolfy though.

From D2 final vote count:
santygrass (6): Guillotine, Vivax, pyxxy, EnderWiggin, DeeZees, Creature
hollowkatt (6): santygrass, Jackofhearts2005, Ranmilia, Dyslexicon, tutuu, DrWilgy

[with ~7 min to go in D2]

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)

[with ~1h15m to go in D2]

tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:44 pm hollowkatt (5): iaafr (229), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (173), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (40)
santygrass (4): RondoDimBuckle (141), DeeZees (39), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192)

This is before Dys announced in the thread that they were almost certainly town bc on both wagons.

I don't get the impression that there was an attempted save of santy, which I think makes santy look good.

Vivax/santy not paired bc of the way Vivax switched wagons at the end while having no ideas who was a player vs NPC bc D2

+plus

santygrass wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm I also think Scotty is rand V .

I hate the Npc shield in slots like Sloonei or Guillo.

Risinq , Dyslexicon and Lily felt towny.

Dezeees awful posting

this would be pretty blatant TMI for scum to post D2 imo?

I declare town!santygrass

(but if there was a save, then one of Jack or Wigly is scum, ez pz)

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lol
Dont get how you conclude with town santy off that post at all
They also added convo about who is npc and who isnt which was pretty pointless
Any wolf could say what santy said there without there being much TMI
Only tmi is who their friends are
So idk how you think that post would require tmi
And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ????? It has tmi somehow???
I'm so confused

"how does literally anyone including wolves know who are players unless scout found ppl lol"
right that's my point

"And wolf santy wouldnt make the post cuz ?????"
you tell me this is my first game with santy but I don't think that wolf santy would make a post like this on D2 when no one really knows who the NPCs are

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 4:08 am I see Porscha is still obv towning. That's good.

Pyxxy feels like the textbook definition of IIoA to me. Like the analysis that does exist is off and few and far between.

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:02 pm

Neon wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:56 pm That's a lot of eyes

Yeah, but I bet he only has one pair of glasses.




And if he has a second, they are in junk drawer somewhere with an out of date prescription

It isn't a pair of glasses, it is a nonagintuple of glasses.

[VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

@pyxxy, don't get me wrong. I do appreciate the analysis. What conclusion do you draw from this though?

You've posted plenty, you've put a lot of energy into the game comparatively, but still I see nothing read based from you except the OMGUS towards me.

Nothing the past few pages have really shifted my mindset. Schia is a wolf. Pyxxy and Falcon are both fine yeets as well.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0

Not Voting (7): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), Lumi (13), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly

Day 5 Vote Count
SoD: #5825 EoD: #0

Not Voting (6): MacDougall (2), sprityo (1), pyxxy (15), SilverKeith (1), DeeZees (7), Porscha (8)
neon (3): nutella (9), Seanzie (18), santygrass (16)
falcon (2): Hally (11), Michelle (13)
nutella (2): Neon (40), NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (3)
schiavetto (2): DrWilgy (5), Vivax (6)
manny (1): Manny (11)
falcon45ca (1): Lumi (15)
sprityo (1): Ricochet (5)
drwilgy (1): ilario (10)
wilgy (1): falcon45ca (5)

@Hally
@Michelle

Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

Y'all should stop voting Falcon.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

idk im feeling disillusioned

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:54 pm Y'all should stop voting Falcon.

great timing

who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:55 pm who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

Idk, Hally maybe?

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:53 pm Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:57 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:55 pm who do i vote if i dont really feel confident abt neon but not ready to make the leap to santy yet

Idk, Hally maybe?

lol

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:57 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:53 pm Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

What makes Santy wolfy? I still haven't seen it.

im worried hes actually a comfortable powerwolf (which is sorta his meta anyway) and was just pushing various miss wagons and pocketing me

and today hes very heavily leaning into the neon push which im not really all that confident on especially from her recent posting and idk im concerned im still going in all the wrong directions

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

Also some quick game theory on how town should be deciding who to kill.

Imagine there's one player that is NPC 90% of the time and wolf 10% of the time (Schiavetto)
and another player that's NPC 40% of the time, wolf 30% of the time and town 30% of the time (falcon)

Who should town try to kill?

Well - town should be trying to maximize their win probability - and probably the closest accurate heuristic to win probability is what percentage of actual players are town.

The real players are pretty well known at this point, especially since I actually outed as a player now - so let's say wolves kill a player 90% of the time tonight.

That means that the ratio on Day 6 for chopping a town today will be (9.1/13.1) = 69.47% of players are town
For chopping an NPC it would be (10.1/14.1) = 71.63%
For chopping a wolf it would be (10.1/13.1) = 77.10%

So to figure out what chop gives the highest EV tomorrow, just take the weighted average for each players equity.

A schia chop weighted average is (90% * 71.63%) + (10% * 77.10%) = 72.18% EV
A falcon chop weighted average is (30% * 69.47% + 40% * 71.63% + 30% * 77.10%) = 72.62% EV

So even though the probability that schia is a wolf in worlds where schia is a player is waaay higher than the probability that falcon is a wolf in worlds where falcon is a player, chopping falcon here is still a better EV chop.


Also - I think falcon is just genuinely higher chance to flip wolf than Neon @DeeZees

Could be wrong, Neon hasn't really been townie, but also Neon has shown an ability to be townie even as wolf e.g the Invitational game, so I don't actually think Neon is super polarized?

Also mindmeld with nutella

I've been kind of wary of Santy for a while - the lily push yesterday was kind of eye brow raising IMO since that was just a bad push, lily should never have been chopped there and I should have dropped the NPC LARP sooner in order to stop it, but I was doubting myself and worried I would be wrong and didn't want to be the fool that shielded a wolf.

The pushes on the Neon / Lily / Porscha trio all in all though feel like they lack actual reason and only exist now because of momentum there.
To be clear, I think both Neon and Porscha have slightly to decently >rand wolf equity because there have just been people that I get town vibes from more - but it's really not enough to make me want to wagon them.

@ilario

Start playing. I'm checking you tonight, and if you come up as a player and you didn't actually engage with the game today, I'm probably going to tunnel you tomorrow

No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:53 pm Mmm yeah I am worried about santy ngl especially if neon is town

I am very town

Lumi Porscha town forever

Lumi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:52 pm [VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

Please use the correct name - Mac literally said in the rules that he's not counting votes on names that aren't spelled correctly

I'm very confident I've already said I'm quite likely to break the rules.



Mac knows this, and as an Aussie is culturally contracted to support scofflaws

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:00 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:49 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:35 pm

falcon45ca wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:13 pm [VOTE: wilgy] aubergine



He's not a Doctor, he's not even an undergrad

You aren't even scouting for data with this. What is your game plan Falc?

I call it the Pinata Tactica Principia


Poke stuff til things fall out

Why did you start with me specifically?

I'm seeing things in your ISO that make me go Hmmmmmm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:15 pm No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

Lumi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:45 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:15 pm No to Falcon. No.

Not yet at least.

Overruled

Give a good reason if you want people to listen.

falcon is town.



so is falcon45ca

I think I need more posts

But I should be good now