The Syndicate

Epignosis wrote:I'd like other opinions on DrumBeats. I don't like his methodology or his conclusions.

Dex wrote:

rabbit8 wrote:Why? I'm sure you said but I'm being lazy and would really appreciate and explanation from anyone who thinks declaring is civvie minded?

Cylons benefit by not declaring as it gives them a one-time get-out-of-lynch-free pass. Nothing happens to humans who declare. Cylons are therefore more motivated to not declare. It's just another piece of evidence to weigh - personally I find it a very useful one - when determining who's who. Or who' what, I guess.

rabbit8 wrote:Okay. I'm a Cylon.

Dex wrote:

rabbit8 wrote:Okay. I'm a Cylon.

Then there were Glorfindel, Vomps, Obscure, and Rico.

DrumBeats wrote:Glorfindel
OA
Sokoth Rico
Vompatti

Dex wrote:

DrumBeats wrote:Glorfindel
OA
Sokoth Rico
Vompatti

DrumBeats wrote:Sorry that it's hard to follow in real time, I had a lot of catching up to do and a lot of things to address in real time as well

Also this is the list I am basing my claim/not claim off of, If I have missed a more recent one let me know:

@ linki Dex, thank you for clarifying who was left, I missed some!

Glorfindel
OA
Rico
Vompatti

Basically I am all caught up right now so here is my rainbow list, since I haven't done one in a while:


Epignosis - Closest thing we have to a clear right now imo. Lore makes his character flip seem very promising, as it seems that Cavil's faction, not all cylons, are the scumteam.
Marmot - I trust the Marmot protection law + behavior has been good imo.

JaggedJimmyJay - Has done a ton to push discussion and his reads feel genuine.
Silverwolf - Though I haven't agreed with Wolf on everything, especially during the lynch all cylons period, all of Wolf's posts seem genuine.
G-Man - A lot of contribution/vote analysis/reads. I haven't been pinged by anything with him, and he's been pretty active.
Matt - Has done a lot of lore-theory that I feel guided our course early game. Hasn't pinged me as suspicious yet and is pretty active, though that has slowed down a bit in the past few days.



Black Rock - Relatively inactive lately, but I have been too. Posts seem genuine and nothing has really pinged me.
S~V~S - Her posts have seemed genuine and helpful. Nothing has screamed town to me, but I am more inclined to believe SVS as town than scum.
Rabbit8 - I honestly did not know how to read Zebra well, so this one will develop more as Rabbit is taking over. Rabbit hasn't pinged me yet and the posts seem geniune. The new claim in linki makes me feel a bit better too.
Ricochet - Behavior-wise, he has been incredibly protown imo. The lack of a claim makes me not willing to place him any higher than town lean.


Polo - Town-read him earlier in the game but I do not like the overconfidence that Wilgy is town. Should Wilgy flip town, I believe Polo to likely be scum, should Wilgy flip mafia, I am comfortable keeping Polo here.
Dex - Same as Polo. I think both of the two though are not scum together though because I feel like scum would do a better job distancing.
Bea - I hated the Bea-Nutella interactions a lot, along with her initial hesitance to claim. Recent behavior is better imo, but I'm still not willing to call her town.

ObscureAllure - I'm on the fence about OA. I scumread her initially, but some more recent posts feel geniune to me and I follow the logic. I still hate the fact that she has yet to claim, especially being an avid "lynch all cylons". The claim thing just really throws me off here.
Vompatti - Literally contributes nothing + hasn't claimed. I have no clue how to read a Vompatti, but this doesn't seem town imo.
SokothQultuq - A lot of null reads. Really seems to be trying to portray being helpful without doing so in his most recent read list. Honestly I'm still scumleaning him even though he has claimed, that read list was incredibly barren imo.

sig - Opportunistic cylon claim. Pushed on a cleared townie. JJJ's iso points to even more scummy material from him with the linking Daisy and Nutella. Overall terrible look imo
Glorfindel - A lot of posts with no real information. Refuses to claim cylon.
DrWilgy - I've went over this a lot, but based on what we know he has about a 60% chance now to flip scum, assuming Leoben and Cap Six are town cylons.




@ Epig linki - The early vote is unfortunate. I don't like how you cut off interaction with me and just voted, but oh well.

@ G-Man linki - Interesting. I guess I will stop game balance speculating and leave that to you guys who know host/site meta better than I do. I still don't see the reasons for clearing Wilgy like people have done, but I can see the other point of view more now that there are more than one option of good cylon left.

Final thoughts: I fully support a lynch on any of the red three, I would personally still prefer Wilgy, but I would be open to placing Glorf at the most votes and then making Wilgy or Sig have the second most. I would be alright with a lynch on the oranges, though I will not place my vote to back them.

Silverwolf wrote:

Glorfindel wrote:

DrumBeats wrote:We don't know who is Cavil-aligned, but we know that for this to be a balanced mafia game there needs to be more Cavil-aligned than not. We know we have already found two of the non-Cavil-aligned cylons. Cap Six is the presumed last one, but that is only one out of the remaining cylons.

I beg your pardon, my friend? WE do not KNOW this at all. This is speculation and in my view, a convenient lie. That is also NOT a criticism of you but of the comment you made - just for the record...

This is coming from a very likely Cavil aligned cylon. Nice how he still hasn't claimed and won't say why. That he shot down the fact that nutella was an evil cylon or that any cylons were evil and is now shouting down the fact that there may be more Cavil aligned cylons out there than not. He's practically waving a banner saying he's an evil cylon most of this day phase and no one will even run him up to a claim which is really quite sad.

Silverwolf wrote:Glorfindel needs to have the most votes and be forced to claim. Make sure the second place person is someone you want lynched today. He has refused to claim or address my questions when I ask why. Do not give him another day. He's scummy on top of refusing to claim. Put him in first. Get him to claim. Do it today.

Silverwolf wrote:Glorfindel-all you are doing is saying I'm wrong. Guess what? I don't believe I am. I believe you are a unclaimed cylon and very likely one of the bad ones. I will keep pushing this in hopes someone will listen to me.

Matt wrote:So wow, I've been super busy and still haven't read anything except LC's flip. Going to try and catch up tonight, starting now.

President Roslin (or whoever at this point), I had an idea for a law! Don't know if Goldama would allow it but something like...

The True Identity Act

All players who have been lynched or will be lynched shall have their faction revealed in the form of civilian, mafia, or independent.

Or heck, you're the President so why not go for the NK'd too?

I dunno if you can make a law for dead people but hey thought I'd share! Off to catch up now...

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Hence, me asking you a question about a post you made last night.

Are you riled? I feel that people are getting a little riled when they use the word "literally".

I have a bad habit of abusing that word. I'm not riled. I'm not fussed.

What do you think the implications would be if I was "lining up" a sig lynch today?

Polo wrote:@Drumbeats so, if my guess was right, then I'm mafia to you? That is utterly ridiculous and I'd expect a solid accusation from anyone who doubts my civness.

DrumBeats wrote:Basically:
Wilgy flips town ---> Scum read on Polo/Dex - Willing to push it
Wilgy flips scum ---> Null read with a slight scum lean on Polo/Dex - Only willing to push if I find something else

MetalMarsh89 wrote:


Can somebody scumread me? I'm having trouble motivating myself.

Dex wrote:

rabbit8 wrote:Okay. I'm a Cylon.

Then there were Glorfindel, Vomps, Obscure, and Rico.

Ricochet wrote:Little optimism
seems present in Jim Jay's
take on sig's posts.

For what it's worth
his Daisy complaints pinged me
about Daisy herself.

ObscureAllure wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

ObscureAllure wrote:
No, you mentioned Wigly. Wigly did that.

This sentence right here

ObscureAllure wrote:He's a cylon so if he claims our number two (should be Wigly) dies and if he doesn't claim then Glor dies. Either way we have a mafia.

Oh restlessness Sorry, I was referring Sorsha Glor there. I Long Con pretty certain Glor is a cylon based on Golden Genie reaction to silvers LaezyDaezy. miscompute Willow Rosenberg behavoir, just as Wigly has done. quaquaversum I honestly levite Shinny really paying attention if I'm honest because I lost a lot of jhilmil when we religieuse two possibly three lief in compressibility of us, some verified through amnesty event, and people are voting abatement of them. Just kind of feels like why hunt Red Knight Juliets if no unavoidable else is interested in doing it. unexaggerated been skim reading the last few page as best.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Little optimism
seems present in Jim Jay's
take on sig's posts.

For what it's worth
his Daisy complaints pinged me
about Daisy herself.

Did you spend any time or energy defending nutella prior to experiencing that Daisy ping?

Ricochet wrote:Reviewed case on her
probably was before Daisy;
did not defend nut.

Glorfindel wrote:No, that is a legitimate comparison. I agree, a number of people haven't made an effort at 'baddie hunting' beyond just me and where is the 'March of the witch hunters' on them? Something you might like to consider right there. I mentioned Vompatti before and my suspicion was summarily dismissed because 'he always plays that way'. Besides, he clearly has an exceptionally quick wit and this game would likely be a crashing bore without him. I may have misunderstood but I was taken to understand that LC and Black Rock were married. Did I get that wrong? I figured under the circumstances, that would legitimately explain the the constant references to him in her posts. My point was that if you remove those references which I don't think were substantial (in terms of content) what remained appear quite thin.

Glorfindel wrote:Note for other people: If Glorfindel is bad, I don't think Black Rock is bad with him.
A dangerous, unfounded assumption and one not worthy of someone of your intellect 3J.

Glorfindel wrote:Now it's my turn to ask you some questions 3J. Don't worry, they're not hard, they just require a considered response...

1. How convinced are you that Epi is on our side and actually working in the interests of the Town (a percentage would even be nice )?
And
2. Assuming you give him a reasonably high percentage for question 1, in percentage terms, how much do you trust his judgement in these games?

Thanks

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Glorfindel wrote:No, that is a legitimate comparison. I agree, a number of people haven't made an effort at 'baddie hunting' beyond just me and where is the 'March of the witch hunters' on them? Something you might like to consider right there. I mentioned Vompatti before and my suspicion was summarily dismissed because 'he always plays that way'. Besides, he clearly has an exceptionally quick wit and this game would likely be a crashing bore without him. I may have misunderstood but I was taken to understand that LC and Black Rock were married. Did I get that wrong? I figured under the circumstances, that would legitimately explain the the constant references to him in her posts. My point was that if you remove those references which I don't think were substantial (in terms of content) what remained appear quite thin.

Yes, BR and LC are married, and yes they tend to have a little more to say about one another than other players. The reason I believe you're being targeted by so many people right now instead of the likes of Black Rock or Vompatti is that a cursory glance at your post history would make it look like you have baddie hunted early and often. You have a decent number of posts, and the word count per-post is likely well above the mean among the players in this game. The posts also often feature multiple quotes chopped into a sequence, which lengthens them and allows them to bear the appearance of analytic effort. Despite this appearance, there is less baddie hunting evident in your actual words than might typically be expected of someone whose ISO looks like your ISO.

Because so many people suspect you, it's nigh impossible that all of them are impurely driven, or even most of them. There are likely numerous honest townies who want your head right now, and that's a big reason why.

My take? I can understand why people feel that way about your post history, though it's not something that has concerned me as much as it has seemed to concern them. Some people are just verbose and I think you look the sort. The lack of baddie hunting is a reality though, and it's why I've been prodding you to focus solely on that. Every time you respond to someone else's accusations at this point, you've wasted a moment that you could have spent doing something more productive. That's not ideal, and it makes me less comfortable to stand in your defense.

Glorfindel wrote:Note for other people: If Glorfindel is bad, I don't think Black Rock is bad with him.
A dangerous, unfounded assumption and one not worthy of someone of your intellect 3J.

I don't understand this comment at all. Why is it dangerous or unfounded for me to suggest that if you're bad, Black Rock is not bad alongside you? If you're not bad, then this assertion should be quite meaningless to you -- it'd be reliant upon a condition that doesn't exist. That you've responded in this manner, and particularly that you've backwardly massaged my "intellect" in doing so, suggests to me that you have some amount of emotional investment in what I said.

I don't see why you would if you're good.

Glorfindel wrote:Now it's my turn to ask you some questions 3J. Don't worry, they're not hard, they just require a considered response...

1. How convinced are you that Epi is on our side and actually working in the interests of the Town (a percentage would even be nice )?
And
2. Assuming you give him a reasonably high percentage for question 1, in percentage terms, how much do you trust his judgement in these games?

Thanks

1. Any "percentage" I give you will inherently be somewhat arbitrary. I guess 65-70%.

2. If he's good, I trust his judgment quite a bit. He's a strong intuitive player and he translates his reads into legible cases -- many people only do one or the other. I guess 95%.

Return question:

1. Why is that of interest to you?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Glorfindel, I would like gun to head reads on every living player. I'll supply you with the list, all you need to do is copy/paste it and give me "good" or "bad" for everyone. No nulls allowed.

a2thezebra/rabbit8
bea
Black Rock
Dex
DrumBeats
DrWilgy
Epignosis
G-Man
JaggedJimmyJay
Metalmarsh89
Matt
ObscureAllure
Polo
Ricochet
S~V~S
sig
Silverwolf
SokothQultug
Vompatti

DrumBeats wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

DrumBeats wrote:Again, that's all fair, but from what I understand, your suspicion on me is based upon me manipulating a town!Wilgy flip.

Your understanding is wrong. My suspicion of you is setting up a scenario in which Polo looks bad either way. Walk me through a scenario where Polo looks good to you.

Right now, I do not like the certainty that Wilgy is town from both Polo and Dex, and regardless of the situation, that strikes me as a scum mindset. Scumteam knows more information than we do, and from what I can see on the role list, the cop only knows cylon or not, so the only way to suddenly be that sure in my opinion is to be scum. I doubt both are scum though, because both seem to be good enough players not to associate themselves so closely. Should Wilgy flip mafia, this certainty becomes much less suspicious imo, but it still has potential scum motives of a risky move to protect him.

Basically:
Wilgy flips town ---> Scum read on Polo/Dex - Willing to push it
Wilgy flips scum ---> Null read with a slight scum lean on Polo/Dex - Only willing to push if I find something else

Glorfindel wrote:As for the Black Rock observation that you made, from my personal experience, assuming the alignment of a player from that of another (whatever their respective colour) is a very dangerous thing to do as on the vast majority of occasions what may look like a link is simply a mirage - it was a general observation that I made.

Glorfindel wrote:You're suspicious of me and I respect that. You're wrong, but I respect that. In my assessment, your performance this game has showed that you are adept at reading people and are capable of building sound cases from a fairly objective standpoint. That is something that I respect. Your opinion on the matter I raised is therefore highly regarded. Thank you.

Glorfindel wrote:Honest Injun?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Glorfindel, I would like gun to head reads on every living player. I'll supply you with the list, all you need to do is copy/paste it and give me "good" or "bad" for everyone. No nulls allowed.

a2thezebra/rabbit8: Good
bea: Good
Black Rock: Bad
Dex: Good
DrumBeats: Bad
DrWilgy: Good
Epignosis: Good
G-Man: Good
JaggedJimmyJay: Good
Metalmarsh89: Good
Matt: Good
ObscureAllure: Bad (but on this one especially, I reserve the right to change my mind based on an ISO of her posts)
Polo: Bad
Ricochet: Good
S~V~S: Good
sig: Good
Silverwolf: Good
SokothQultug: Good
Vompatti: God knows?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Glorfindel wrote:As for the Black Rock observation that you made, from my personal experience, assuming the alignment of a player from that of another (whatever their respective colour) is a very dangerous thing to do as on the vast majority of occasions what may look like a link is simply a mirage - it was a general observation that I made.

Sorry I still don't understand. It's possible my assertion was incorrect, but from your perspective there can only be one possible incorrect interpretation. If I say that Glorfindel as a baddie and Black rock don't fit together, and I'm wrong about that, then it'd mean that bad Glorfindel and bad Black Rock do fit together -- which still leaves us with "bad Glorfindel".

That's the only association I drew. I didn't say anything about what Black Rock might be in the event that you're good. From your perspective, how can there be any danger in me drawing a conclusion which is reliant upon you being bad to function? If you're not bad then the conclusion doesn't exist.

Glorfindel wrote:You're suspicious of me and I respect that. You're wrong, but I respect that. In my assessment, your performance this game has showed that you are adept at reading people and are capable of building sound cases from a fairly objective standpoint. That is something that I respect. Your opinion on the matter I raised is therefore highly regarded. Thank you.

I'm not sure if I suspect you. I'm trying my best to sort you out. I've arguably spent more time defending you than anyone else in the game has save maybe for S~V~S, and I am challenging myself on that good read during this day phase. I have always felt the cases assembled against you are merited, but you just don't look bad to me at all. That is still true, frankly. Sometimes people who don't look bad are bad anyway.

Glorfindel wrote:Honest Injun?

I'm not sure what you mean. If you're unfamiliar with gun to head reads, all I mean is for you to state a clear "good" or "bad" read on all of the players I listed, using nothing but one of those two words (no "neutral" or "null" or "???" or "I don't know", etc).

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Glorfindel, thank you for humoring me on my questions. I have another:

If you had total control over who is lynched this day phase, who would die?

Glorfindel wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Glorfindel, thank you for humoring me on my questions. I have another:

If you had total control over who is lynched this day phase, who would die?

Are you REALLY sure you want an answer to that question 3J? I can say that you almost certainly won't like the answer

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Reviewed case on her
probably was before Daisy;
did not defend nut.

sig did. That's why I cared. He wasn't the only person to throw shade at Daisy for her waffle on nutella, but he was only person to do so after having defended her and resisted her lynch. I don't understand why someone with a mindset featuring town-nutella would suddenly care about someone else waffling on that read. What sig said makes sense coming from someone who suspected nutella, not someone who protected her.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Glorfindel wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Glorfindel, thank you for humoring me on my questions. I have another:

If you had total control over who is lynched this day phase, who would die?

Are you REALLY sure you want an answer to that question 3J? I can say that you almost certainly won't like the answer

Don't you worry about whether I'll like the answer. That's not important. I want that answer.

Glorfindel wrote:I personally believe that there are some things more important than winning a Mafia game.

Ricochet wrote:And Epignosis

Ricochet wrote:For what it is worth I'd ask
Remaining claimers

To recap their reasons
Not to claim and... I forgot
The fraking lyrics