Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:16 pm

Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Here was the VC with an hour left in the day:santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
If a single member of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then unless the other 3 are going to block-vote, that gives wolves only saving power of 2 - your selfpres plus a wolf saving buddy.tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm Not Voting (7): MacDougall (33), Inawordyes (20), JaggedJimmyJay (35), risiinq- (45), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (73)
chelsea (2): Golden (47), ~Prince J~ (18)
santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
marmot (2): Marmot (88), sprityo (24)
michelle (4): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (21), hollowkatt (81), Chelsea (18), TonyStarkPrime (31)
scotty (4): Lilypetal (39), EnderWiggin (165), RondoDimBuckle (163), tutuu (83)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (66)
lily (1): falcon45ca (22)
guillotina (1): katze (131)
nutella (1): Michelle (116)
master radishes (1): Sloonei (33)
c4e5g3d5 (1): c4e5g3d5 (85)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (30)
sloonei (3): santygrass (83), Scotty (52), Ricochet (10)
manny (1): Manny (223)
golden (1): lucy (19)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (10)
test (1): Lumi (78)
unvote (2): WindwardAway (105), arogame123 (61)
arogame (1): Sabiplz (243)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (23)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (43)
enderwiggin (1): Neon (88)
Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pmMy brain immediately went to “this is a TMI slip and Santy/Falcon is W/W”santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
I need to take a break from the thread
You being a lead wagon all day suggests that wolves would not block-vote together to save you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:12 pmsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
And I wasnt a CFD , I was lead wagon for quite a while that day , so the wagonomics for a mafia team that doesn't know how many players could be on each wagon dont add up at all
I realize you say that it’s an exaggeration, but comparing Jack’s reads to a cop check is way too much confidence on a read that you should not have that much confidence about. It’s like you’re absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where you know Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that you can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that you can know that Falcon is mafia is if you are also mafiasantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pm Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:06 pmBecause a townread sussing that slot increases the confidence I have of them being a hit?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:03 pmBroooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh![]()
If the case was done by someone I dont trust to be town it would be different bcuz scum agenda could be involved
I'm not picking up what you're putting down.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:24 pmAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:06 pmBecause a townread sussing that slot increases the confidence I have of them being a hit?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:03 pmBroooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh![]()
If the case was done by someone I dont trust to be town it would be different bcuz scum agenda could be involved
Like, am I the only one seeing this? Am I going crazy?
Seanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:28 pmI'm not picking up what you're putting down.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:24 pmAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:06 pmBecause a townread sussing that slot increases the confidence I have of them being a hit?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:03 pmBroooooooo, that’s literally your own words in the post I replied to. You’re the one who is saying that having confidence in Falcon being more likely a hit is part of your reason for placing the vote. How do you not understand?santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:00 pm I dont understand the confidence part?
If I see acorrect read, its because I think the view is correct and the slot they are sussing is likely to be a hit. So why wouldnt do that increase my confidence?
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh![]()
If the case was done by someone I dont trust to be town it would be different bcuz scum agenda could be involved
Like, am I the only one seeing this? Am I going crazy?
Now think again consider the NPCs here. A 2 player or 3 player block ALWAYS would save someone here. So If I am a wolf, a partner would be voting with me kinda always otherwise it would be just a dumb play. And because scum doesnt know too who is a player and their vote counts and who doesnt a tie is simply not viable to pull / risk being scum lolSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:17 pmHere was the VC with an hour left in the day:santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
If a single member of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then unless the other 3 are going to block-vote, that gives wolves only saving power of 2 - your selfpres plus a wolf saving buddy.tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm Not Voting (7): MacDougall (33), Inawordyes (20), JaggedJimmyJay (35), risiinq- (45), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (73)
chelsea (2): Golden (47), ~Prince J~ (18)
santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
marmot (2): Marmot (88), sprityo (24)
michelle (4): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (21), hollowkatt (81), Chelsea (18), TonyStarkPrime (31)
scotty (4): Lilypetal (39), EnderWiggin (165), RondoDimBuckle (163), tutuu (83)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (66)
lily (1): falcon45ca (22)
guillotina (1): katze (131)
nutella (1): Michelle (116)
master radishes (1): Sloonei (33)
c4e5g3d5 (1): c4e5g3d5 (85)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (30)
sloonei (3): santygrass (83), Scotty (52), Ricochet (10)
manny (1): Manny (223)
golden (1): lucy (19)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (10)
test (1): Lumi (78)
unvote (2): WindwardAway (105), arogame123 (61)
arogame (1): Sabiplz (243)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (23)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (43)
enderwiggin (1): Neon (88)
That means that HK or Michelle are the only ones who could have been viable saves for you. HK is the natural choice at this point, so as long as one other person is a wolf on HK, that makes sense.
if two members of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then your case is even weaker.
Even if all four wolves are around for EoD, unless they were block-voting together, they can't just magically stop your wagon from tieing.
I live to provide
santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:31 pm I think your point fundamentally has zero sense at all and after this game ends I hope you never use it again because is dumb.
I am not saying that I 'know' like how are you remarking, I said it made me feel better / have more confidence on falcon being a hit, just by the fact that a townread expressed confidence on them being scum and Me vibing with that read. There isnt much science about it and I just feel dumb keeping this argument at this point tbh. Like, its basic stuff still
"A 2 player block ALWAYS would save someone here" is categorically false. A 3-player block might, but that requires 3 people to all be around for EoD and all to vote together on a wagon that has been a lead wagon all day. Hell, I'd say if you flip wolf, there's probably a wolf on you at that EoD, hedging their bets that the towncred they'd get from that will be worth more than keeping alive someone who is majorly suspected in thread.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:35 pmNow think again consider the NPCs here. A 2 player or 3 player block ALWAYS would save someone here. So If I am a wolf, a partner would be voting with me kinda always otherwise it would be just a dumb play. And because scum doesnt know too who is a player and their vote counts and who doesnt a tie is simply not viable to pull / risk being scum lolSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:17 pmHere was the VC with an hour left in the day:santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:10 pmHow a scum team of 4 ends uo with a mafia being tied at the end. And look at the votes on my end and the votes on my counterwagon, and the overall EoD when I came in ig. I think its kinda clearing town indicative for me tbhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:07 pmI went back and skimmed through EoD2 to give myself some context on the wagonomics thing. Walk me through why you think EoD2 clears you. I am NOT going to look through 7 pages of your ISO for a post that I don't know what it looks like.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:37 amBut why did you ISO Michelle then? Whats this favouritism smhSeanzie wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:35 amI'm not going to ISO you.santygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 11:32 am Or you can ISO me, I have a towncase on myself in SoD D3 I think and if you actually read the ISO and want to solve should reach to the correct conclussion that I am town anyways /shrug
If a single member of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then unless the other 3 are going to block-vote, that gives wolves only saving power of 2 - your selfpres plus a wolf saving buddy.tutuu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:53 pm Not Voting (7): MacDougall (33), Inawordyes (20), JaggedJimmyJay (35), risiinq- (45), sabie12 (2), Fext (5), Porscha (73)
chelsea (2): Golden (47), ~Prince J~ (18)
santygrass (6): nutella (171), Creature (121), DeeZees (44), pyxxy (14), Guillotine (192), Ranmilia (125)
marmot (2): Marmot (88), sprityo (24)
michelle (4): NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME (21), hollowkatt (81), Chelsea (18), TonyStarkPrime (31)
scotty (4): Lilypetal (39), EnderWiggin (165), RondoDimBuckle (163), tutuu (83)
hollowkatt (6): iaafr (236), Jackofhearts2005 (108), Hally (188), Dyslexicon (100), Vivax (42), DrWilgy (30)
drwilgy (1): SilverKeith (66)
lily (1): falcon45ca (22)
guillotina (1): katze (131)
nutella (1): Michelle (116)
master radishes (1): Sloonei (33)
c4e5g3d5 (1): c4e5g3d5 (85)
jackofhearts2005 (1): Schiavetto (30)
sloonei (3): santygrass (83), Scotty (52), Ricochet (10)
manny (1): Manny (223)
golden (1): lucy (19)
guillotine (1): Seanzie (10)
test (1): Lumi (78)
unvote (2): WindwardAway (105), arogame123 (61)
arogame (1): Sabiplz (243)
golden the coward (1): G-Man (23)
dr. wilgy (1): ilario (43)
enderwiggin (1): Neon (88)
That means that HK or Michelle are the only ones who could have been viable saves for you. HK is the natural choice at this point, so as long as one other person is a wolf on HK, that makes sense.
if two members of the wolves weren't around for EoD, then your case is even weaker.
Even if all four wolves are around for EoD, unless they were block-voting together, they can't just magically stop your wagon from tieing.
That sounds like meInawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:41 pmsantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:31 pm I think your point fundamentally has zero sense at all and after this game ends I hope you never use it again because is dumb.
I am not saying that I 'know' like how are you remarking, I said it made me feel better / have more confidence on falcon being a hit, just by the fact that a townread expressed confidence on them being scum and Me vibing with that read. There isnt much science about it and I just feel dumb keeping this argument at this point tbh. Like, its basic stuff still![]()
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You know what, fine, I give up, I can’t explain myself and articulate this read properly
What if I'm reeeeeeeeeally good at mafia, though?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:21 pmI realize you say that it’s an exaggeration, but comparing Jack’s reads to a cop check is way too much confidence on a read that you should not have that much confidence about. It’s like you’re absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where you know Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that you can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that you can know that Falcon is mafia is if you are also mafiasantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pm Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
The confidence you have in this read being correct is way too high. So either you’re both mafis together, or you’re manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes you look extremely scummy
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:47 pmWhat if I'm reeeeeeeeeally good at mafia, though?Inawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:21 pmI realize you say that it’s an exaggeration, but comparing Jack’s reads to a cop check is way too much confidence on a read that you should not have that much confidence about. It’s like you’re absolutely convinced that Falcon is mafia to the point where you know Falcon is mafia. The scout to my understanding is basically just an “NPC or Player” cop, so there is no way as town that you can know that Falcon is mafia; the only way that you can know that Falcon is mafia is if you are also mafiasantygrass wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:04 pm Again I am going tl make a comparison that is not 'equal to the case' but more like an exaggeration to be more clear.
Player A is a townread. Player B is a PoE slot.
Then comes Player A with a copcheck that Player B is mafia.
That *is* a confidence boost on Player B being more likely to be mafia, and I shouldnt need another reason (?)
Like, here the cop check would be replaced with Jack recent posts about Falcon, but id what are you even digging into bcuz yeh I think its a pretty basic stuff
The confidence you have in this read being correct is way too high. So either you’re both mafis together, or you’re manufacturing the confidence to justify pushing Falcon. That makes you look extremely scummy
they were both the main wagons from sod, i dont remember if majority went back and forth much but both were in contention for much of the day i thinkInawordyes wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 12:54 pm Okay, reset, topic-change, pivot-shift
What was the turning point yesterday when Lily overtook Neon as the main wagon?
prolly exactly one of jack/santy lolfalcon45ca wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:24 pmIn a world where falcon is town (and he is, trust me), who are the wolves pushing his wagon?
Cuz I don't know if I've ever been mislynched by a pure wagon. Ever
Hmmm, I hadn't noticed that.
I don't think Jack is the one that needs to be loaded into the catapult.
the hard defending falcon for completely indecipherable reasons? yeah no youre gonna have to help me out there
I’m at work and can’t easily ISO and thread-search from my phone, but I’m trying to still contribute so I’m asking for others who are in a better position than I atm to help pick up the slack in the areas that I am deficientJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:16 pm That was aimed at IAWY ie "somebody else check that, plz"
I had looked at that as well, but Sean has been playing with me a bit lately, and he's getting more familiar with my tone.