Avatar The Last Airbender Mafia postgame

[Alison]

Ah, I see the issue. I am falsely representing a non-absolute inference as an absolute one. That is, suppose we flip Neutron scum. Then we have to assume that MJ is scum who is defending him. The possibility of MJ being town who was thunderdomed by nutella and defending a wolf is just too low for us to do anything but execute her. But this is technically a supposition or judgement of probabilities, and not a strict logical inference, which I wrongly phrased it as.

So it's better to say that I don't think that Neutron is scum logically implies MJ is scum. Rather, I think that the revelation of Neutron being scum would make MJ the correct execute in almost all worlds. But, the same doesn't apply the other way around, because if we know that MJ is town, we are more obliged to seriously consider the coincidence where MJ really was just a townie who had some extreme bad luck in terms of reads and pushes. And the reason we have to consider that coincidence more in scenario 2 than in scenario 1, is because in scenario 2 we already know that MJ is a townie!

[cassowary]

Ah, I see the issue. I am falsely representing a non-absolute inference as an absolute one. That is, suppose we flip Neutron scum. Then we have to assume that MJ is scum who is defending him. The possibility of MJ being town who was thunderdomed by nutella and defending a wolf is just too low for us to do anything but execute her. But this is technically a supposition or judgement of probabilities, and not a strict logical inference, which I wrongly phrased it as.

So it's better to say that I don't think that Neutron is scum logically implies MJ is scum. Rather, I think that the revelation of Neutron being scum would make MJ the correct execute in almost all worlds. But, the same doesn't apply the other way around, because if we know that MJ is town, we are more obliged to seriously consider the coincidence where MJ really was just a townie who had some extreme bad luck in terms of reads and pushes. And the reason we have to consider that coincidence more in scenario 2 than in scenario 1, is because in scenario 2 we already know that MJ is a townie!

Ok, yeah, I think given the information asymmetry between scum and town this reasoning does check out.

I did notice you ignored the question below, so thanks for that.

Sorry chardonnay -- question was "what are your thoughts on eod1" and I thought my reads list kinda answered this but my thoughts on eod1 are basically:

- I like DDL a lot for pushing away from me onto Neutron. I think scum DDL would just let the misyeet go through on me.
- Tbh not sure how I feel about Neutron. Not as suspicious of Neutron as others seem to be, kind of meta read that I've had similar feelings about him d1 before and worry about acting on them too soon.
- Not totally sure what to make of this dov thing either. I'm not sure I buy the coaching argument since he seems like he legit wasn't sure what's going on (and ToS/other short mafia games have very different norms around discussion iirc so the silent vote doesn't seem too weird in that light I don't think?)
- I'm kind of giving the side-eye to Jack's no-vote and LC's vanity-vote, not super scummy on their own but kinda weird.
- Really don't like Jovian coming in with the push on me like they did.

[Fatmo]

Sorry I've been so absent. Can't be helped.

Been working on a contract thing for someone, and it's been much more work and gone a bit longer than I thought it would. I hope to be able to be around more for D3 provided I make it there.

Looks like my gut TRs are all on MJ and still doing a bunch of townie looking work when I flip through things. I still like the tone from that crew. And Nutella was there too. For now I'm inclined to go with them again today and go for MJ.

Also, whoever called that one long post from MJ quite WIFOMey I think was right.

[VOTE: Marcher]

[Fatmo]

That vote didn't seem to quite work so I'll just copy paste someone else's.

[VOTE: MARCHER JOVIAN]

[Fatmo]

[Vote: Marcher Jovian]

[Fatmo]

[VOTE: Marcher Jovian]

[Fatmo]

Rip, I tried lol.

Voted in the poll.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Lol

[Jackofhearts2005]

You have to vote like you’re doing quote or img.

Replace {} with []

{vote}player{/vote}

[Jackofhearts2005]

I’m mostly not voting Marcher to be contrary. It’s the correct flip in all likelihood.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Two people have had to back out of the game, they've both been modkilled.

DJ Neutron Star flips town:

Aang (Air Nomad)

Master of the Four Elements: Once per game, you can target someone and remove any abilities they have. You may target a player of any element with this ability. You are town, and you win when all the mafia are dead.

Ultimate Gamer has also been modkilled for the same reason, and flips mafia:

Azula (Fire Nation)

You have no abilities. You are mafia and you win at parity.

I'm ending the day here with just these deaths, it is now N2 and any actions should be sent to me. D3 will start at about 4pm Eastern, September 6.

Jack does not die (this is unrelated to the day ending early).

[mention]Alison[/mention]
[mention]Carotenoid[/mention]
[mention]cassowary[/mention]
[mention]cayvie[/mention]
[mention]chardonnay[/mention]
[mention]dov[/mention]
[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]
[mention]DrWilgy[/mention]
[mention]Fatmo[/mention]
[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]
[mention]Long Con[/mention]
[mention]Marcher Jovian[/mention]
[mention]PSINightmareEmpower[/mention]

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

The poll as of topic closing was:

Marcher (7): Alison, PSI, cayvie, cass, LC, Carot, Fatmo
Cass (3): Marcher, Wilgy, Jack
Chardonnay (1): DDL
Not Voting (4): UG, DJ, Jack, Dov


Post caps will be updated shortly

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Postcaps have been updated. Also a clarification that modkilled players will still win or lose with their alignment!

[PSINightmareEmpower]

Welp. That's a bit sad, I must say. Guess we were wrong about Neutron.

I was FUCKING right about U-G though. Nobody FUCKING listens to my takes. Two game streak for gutreading scummy reactions correctly. Y'all better fucking listen to me next time I have a take like this.

Not sure what to do about Marcher though. If Neutron was town, is there a possibility Marcher is scum anyway? Not sure about that yet.

My weekend is quickly slipping by and I still haven't done any ISO-ing. Sorry about that, I'll try at some point.

[chardonnay]

Nuetron being town here im a bit surprised. There wasn't anything town coming from their slot. I suddenly don't feel as confidant with that matcher read. >.>

UG flipping mafia is also surprising. He was outside his normal scum meta.

Jack didn't die so im assuming their is another healing role out there?

-/-/-/-

I'll try to reevaluate some things tonight, and check though UG's player interactions.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Yay? Lol nice to not die and get a free wolf.

My reads kinda suck this game tho.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Lol even when I vote I’m not really voting per Nanook.

[chardonnay]

Welp. That's a bit sad, I must say. Guess we were wrong about Neutron.

I was FUCKING right about U-G though. Nobody FUCKING listens to my takes. Two game streak for gutreading scummy reactions correctly. Y'all better fucking listen to me next time I have a take like this.

Not sure what to do about Marcher though. If Neutron was town, is there a possibility Marcher is scum anyway? Not sure about that yet.

My weekend is quickly slipping by and I still haven't done any ISO-ing. Sorry about that, I'll try at some point.

Well, at least one of us is having good takes this game lol.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Who was picking on UG and it bothered me? I could maybe turn that into a townread when I go see who it was.

[Long Con]

Unexpected. Should we hammer Jovian tomorrow or does this change things?

[cassowary]

Well dang. RIP all the airbenders I guess.

I... think I'm still gonna vote Jovian tomorrow but I want to look through stuff with new knowledge before I commit hard to anything

[Carotenoid]

ohhh

I must say I'm surprised UG flipped mafia. chardonnay and PSINE are pretty much lock town now.

This morning I had this vague feeling that w!Marcher might have been bringing all the pyre references to frame DJ as wolf after their flip. It felt a bit silly so I decided not to post that. Now that DJ actually flipped town it just feels really weird for some reason >:|

[cassowary]

reading back, yeah, chardonnay comes out of this looking very good. I really can't see this interaction as SvS at all.

[Carotenoid]

#324 Cassowary votes UG. UG was at 2 votes for a few hours before cayvie switched to DJ (who had no vote). When cassowary votes an hour later it puts UG back to 2.

~50 minutes later UG posts this read of Cassowary:

Let’s start with Cassowary.. I gotta admit their opening here feels… Disingenuous a bit? I’m getting vibes of “This is a first post that a townie makes” and it doesn’t feel quite… Real. Their read on PSINE feels this way too. I feel like they’re taking advantage of a good opportunity to paint someone as “wishywashy”. Especially when they themselves pull back after getting just a little pressure.

I DO like the game solving they do later on though with Jiwon and Cayvie. And then later when really pushed they just kinda throw their hands up and say “I don’t know what to tell ya bud” just sounds like a cornered townie who doesn’t know what to say. AND their vote on me feels legitimate. Like despite the behavior in the beginning THIS read feels like there was honest thought behind it and NOT someone trying to pretend. Even if that conclusion is wrong.

This… Might be a hot take but… I’m getting more of a townie lean from this.

I don't think this is w/w.

[Carotenoid]

Like this couuuuld be cassowary bussing but I think it's more likely that it's not.

UG not liking their read of PSINE even if he has a relatively similar one and using it to shade them and then giving the t!cassowary perspective feels tmi-y, especially the "cornered townie" & liking their vote on him.

Like I don't think cassoway would be bussing if it wasn't agreed and if it was agreed I don't think UG would have had such a flip-flopy read so cassowary probs town.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

This is an excellent result for town tbh. We increased the town/scum proportion, gained info and avoided a likely misyeet.

Though I'm sad DJ and UG couldn't play with us. I hope to see you in other games.

I'm gonna need to review what I was thinking, cuz Jovian looks somewhat better now.

changing to novote for now. See you tomorrow.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Oh wait just noticed D2 got cancelled.

Nvm then.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Welp. That's a bit sad, I must say. Guess we were wrong about Neutron.

I was FUCKING right about U-G though. Nobody FUCKING listens to my takes. Two game streak for gutreading scummy reactions correctly. Y'all better fucking listen to me next time I have a take like this.

Not sure what to do about Marcher though. If Neutron was town, is there a possibility Marcher is scum anyway? Not sure about that yet.

My weekend is quickly slipping by and I still haven't done any ISO-ing. Sorry about that, I'll try at some point.

I'll be hyped to listen to your takes if you actually put your vote on them next time.

Now who were you theorizing to be UG's teammate again?

[Carotenoid]

While I somewhat agree with you here, I'm almost more inclined to read U-G/Chardonnay as w/w. It felt to me like Chard spotted the odd behavior of his scumbuddy and wanted to be the first to call attention to it in the thread for towncred or something, but didn't want to actually commit to bussing. There are two things wrong with this read though. 1. Chard likes to bus a lot, so him doing a half-hearted response to avoid bussing isn't as likely for him as it is for other people, and 2. They do know each other pretty well so I wouldn't be surprised if it was just a "my friend is acting kinda weird" reaction as either alignment.

I don't really love bussing tho? I'd say less then 50% of my scum games feature me bussing.

-/-/-/-/--/-

@Long Con

If the Cayvie wagon doesn't pan out who would you switch to?

I see some UG talk, but I haven't looked at their posts yet...at this point I might sheep someone or hook up with a leading wagon that I felt strongest about. Maybe Wilgy, he's irked me a bit.

Linki: although that stuff nutella just said about UG is right up my alley.

This also doesn't feel w/w.

[chardonnay]

UG resigned himself to making read lists mostly. direct interactions were when ppl accused him of stuff.

-/-/-/-/-

Spoiler: show

good morning lovely people.

hey, full disclosure, im having some serious irl problems. I've not even been able to look at the game much. still. ive spoken with the gm, if i cant get my issues sorted out soon i might need to drop

anywho, i figure the best thing i can do right NOW is give you what reads i do have so that y'all can better sort my slot. if i cant do anything super productive, at least ill get to help you out.

So! Let's get started with my reads so far based on what little I've ISO'd and read throughout the game:

Alison: Mega town energy here. Everything feels genuine, from what I've seen she's been active and trying to solve the game. Probably my biggest town read so far, I have a hard time seeing a universe where Alison is scum.

Carot: Similar energy to Alison but not as strong. We share similar reads on Nooter which makes me feel better in my asersion. Town

Cassowary: Town. Like I said before, this might be a hot take, but Cassowary's reactions to being pushed to NOT feel like panicked scum trying to play it cool. they feel like a frustrated townie who doesn't know what to say so they're trying to defend themselves while also simultaneously trying to solve the game. It's a good response and I like it a lot. I really REALLY feel like this was a good, easy yeet for potential scum to latch onto.

Cayvie: ISO'd. Also town. Unlike Alison, I CAN see a universe where Cayvie is scum, but her actions make MORE sense as town. She's active, she's solving the game, she's putting herself out there in a way that would be counterintuitive as scum. Pretty good town lean.

Chard: I'm... Hesistent still. He backed off me when I made a response which again felt fine... I still have a weird feeling about him. Especially posts like this:

Aww I guess DoV had to go.

Im partially concerned that his intsa trust in Carrot is b/c he randed mafia, and knew she was town from the start.

But I feel inclined to not jump on him, as he is probably easily sorted over time. A lot of new players are.

feel like he's seeding doubt so he can have an excuse to scum read later ya know? but at the same time the rest of his posts feel pretty genuine. I'm getting FEELINGS about this slot but I can't tell what those feelings are one way or the other.

Nooter: I went into more detail in my last post but if there was a slot that I HAD to scum read it'd probably be this one. Granted I haven't taken a good look at a lot of the player roster, AND considering Nooter was basically the counter wagon to Jiwon... I think that says something but i'm not sure what. During my ISO several of his posts gave me uneasy vibes, and the more I think about this slot the better I feel about those. I'm actually gonna move this to a scum lean.

Nutella: One of the people who came after me prettty hard. And... I liked their reasoning. Their gut reads felt VERY genuine. Getting very similar vibes like I do with Alison and Carot. Their read was wrong, sure, but it feels better than a lot of the posts that I get from both Nooter and Chard. This is someone trying to solve the game for real. Strong town.

PSINE: I'm kinda wary about this. It's still a town lean, for sure, but y'all have never played with PSINE before, her MO between town and scum does not change a lot, her behavior FEELS genuine and townie, but I'm still very hesitent to sort her one way or the other.

If I didn't mention someone that means I dont' have anything to say because I haven't really read enough of their posts to make a call. Hopefully that helps. If you have any questions or anything feel free to ping me and I'll answer asap.

tl;dr UG'd last and biggest read list:

Town: Alison, Carotte, Cassowary, Cayvie, Nutella
Town Lean: PSI
Null: Me,
Scum: Neutron
Not mentioned: Fatso, Wigly, Long Con, Marcher(Granted he hadn't posted yet I believe), DoV, DDL, Jack

Looking at reads don't matter as much as actual inthread pushes. UG didn't really have anything substernal there. SO im looking at his reads. UG is probably hiding a buddy, or two, in his Town reads. If I had to choose I'd say its Carotte, the whole "Im strongly town reading you, but I also think you're suspicious" felt forced in retrospect. Cassowary I guess is also an option. Though I wonder if UG being as jumpy as he is this game would've TR'd a buddy under pressure. I think thats doubtful.

Alison/Cayvie im not sure on. I know they actually interacted with UG in thread some, so I kinda wanna read that. PSI is clean I think, and to a lesser extent Cassowary.
-/-/-/-

Yeah sorry, Nooter is Neutron Star. And I also wanted to kinda expand on PSINE as well. Like, their read on me feels more or less "he's actin different now" which feels.... Icky. Like I get it, Chard did the same thing, but rather than backing off after seeing a response she's kinda doubled down on it. It feels like she's not considered the extenuating circumstances. Deliberate or otherwise.

It looks like UG was trying to subtly unnerve PSI off him by mentioning that she should be considering his extenuating irl circumstances. That dosnt sound like a thing scum says about another scum in thread proper?

I guess this is kinda a touchy subject since its borderline AtE. :/

[chardonnay]

linki:

Im not sure what to make of you lamp shading your own actions so quickly UG haha. You seem pretty ill at ease rn.

This is leaning me towards a Cassowary exe over a Jiwon one. This is the kind of post mafia makes to shade a townie. It's an indirect way of attacking them ("you seem pretty ill at ease") that is difficult to defend yourself against or pick apart (because the snap response is, "hey, that's just how I felt"), but is also couched in a hedgy way ("I'm not sure what to make of you...") that removes accountability for the read if UG flips town.

This is a post that wants us to narrow our eyes at UG, but without making us think "Cassowary wants us to vote UG". That's scummy.

1) Historically has Alison had the nerves to chainsaw buddies?

2) Cassowary is town if Alison, and UG are a team.

3) ironically Im sorta cleared in this exchange too if Alison is scum. She quoted me thinking I was Cassowary lol.

-/-/-/-

Looks like she forgot to put UG in any of her reads lists. Why'd she hard defend a player she didn't recall to put in her reads? lol

-/-/-/-

Thinking it over idk if scum!Alison would forgot to put a buddy in her read list. She seems like too much of a perfectionist for that.

[Carotenoid]

This DDL serie of post regarding UG/PSINE just eeks me:

Ok caught up

So psi made that huge post about UG and I thought she made a bunch of leaps of logic and unlikely assumptions there. Some serious tinfoiling coupled with early teammate association which is something I usually avoid. All of this is to say while I don't feel inclined to follow Psi on that case I'm townreading her a lot now because I normally don't expect scum to tinfoil like this. That said, keep doing your thing Psi, sooner or later a tinfoil hits something.

On the case itself, I didn't feel much about that post from UG that Psi had an issue about, but I disliked the later post with a lot of REALLYs that UG made and nutella pointed out to. Might have voted UG for it. But then carot said she's well within her meta so meh.

Shading the PSINE's post about UG. Criticize-ish the use of tinfoil but townread PSINE for it.

"might have voted" him for the thing nutella pointed out but doesn't because I talked about this being in his meta. Not long after that makes this weird post where he ends up townreading me with a * because I'm playing "meta patrol". Feels like he's setting-up to push me in case UG flips.

Ugh. Neither of the alternate viable wagons look good to me, but I know U-G isn't popular enough to go through right now. I have to switch, but I don't know to whom.

Jiwon isn't doing anything for me. I'm all right with it, but not personally sold on it. Clearing out the inactives is important though, so maybe I should?

I can't vote Cass in good conscience. I haven't done enough research on them to confidently place a vote. It's just a sheep read I'd do as mafia so I can't vote them until I've done my research, and I don't have time to do research before EoD.

...

...

...Jiwon it is.

[VOTE: JiwonMeganPark] aubergine

There are 2 votes on UG, that's hardly "not popular enough" in my book.

The majority of people have said that they think U-G is town or null at best, while they seem more open to Jiwon or Cass. I'm saying I don't think it'll get past 3 votes.

You have over two hours. The difference from your UG to the top wagon after you vote is just 2 votes. If you can't sell your own case, who is going to do that for you?

Selling cases is part of the skill of being a townie. You posted early that last game you read the scum correctly but people didn't follow you. Maybe they didn't follow you because you didn't try to get others to follow you?

idk this feels almost trolly, like DDL knows PSINE is right and trying to "frighten" her/put her in a thought loop?

DDL's handling of PSINE is really weird. It's a bit unclear whether or not he believes in her case, but he's always townreading PSINE.

All right guys, I have to go and I won't be back for EoD. @Townies If you haven't voted yet, you should vote. Trust your instincts, make good decisions. I'll see you on Day 2.

I expect to see you next game telling tales about how you knew who the scum was in Avatar but nobody listened to you again.

Assuming UG is scum, that is.

Like, here again ??? Assuming PSINE is town, interacting with her but not actively trying to work with her and get her to talk about her read. He's kinda just, teasing her about it and putting a lot of responsibility on her shoulders, as if he's trying to make her less confident about it.

For all the cass wagon is supposed to be universal it's not turning that into an actual yeet, is it.

In the meantime he starts pushing cassowary - clearly not interested in UG even if he keeps talking about it with PSINE, who he townread

Welp. That's a bit sad, I must say. Guess we were wrong about Neutron.

I was FUCKING right about U-G though. Nobody FUCKING listens to my takes. Two game streak for gutreading scummy reactions correctly. Y'all better fucking listen to me next time I have a take like this.

Not sure what to do about Marcher though. If Neutron was town, is there a possibility Marcher is scum anyway? Not sure about that yet.

My weekend is quickly slipping by and I still haven't done any ISO-ing. Sorry about that, I'll try at some point.

I'll be hyped to listen to your takes if you actually put your vote on them next time.

Now who were you theorizing to be UG's teammate again?

This feels like such a troll. He didn't like PSINE not putting her vote on UG but still talked to her like she was town and has put a really big amount of pressure on her by asking her to sell her case and influence others while showing no interest of working with her. It's like, how PSINE is handling UG was more important than UG's alignment or even PSINE's alignment for DDL.

[chardonnay]

Spoiler: show

did a reread and here's a rough ordering before i go to bed.

cayvie
carotenoid
DDL
PSINE
Fatmo
chardonnay
Alison
Nutella

_________would vote below this line
Long Con
UG
Jack

_________would happily vote below this line

cassowary
Wilgy
DJNS
Jiwon

(dov, KS)

Its gutsy of a scum!Cayvie to come out and town read so many players, and slide UG into the "would vote line." Unless the rest of the team is hiding in Cayvies townie pool and UG was weakest link.

Spoiler: show

Nooter: I went into more detail in my last post but if there was a slot that I HAD to scum read it'd probably be this one. Granted I haven't taken a good look at a lot of the player roster, AND considering Nooter was basically the counter wagon to Jiwon... I think that says something but i'm not sure what. During my ISO several of his posts gave me uneasy vibes, and the more I think about this slot the better I feel about those. I'm actually gonna move this to a scum lean.

mmm.. my first instinct is to see this as w/w seeing the writing on the wall and hedging toward a tentative bus.

So i guess UG was tertiary Scum read. Thats not a uncommon position for scum to put buddies in. Same time nothing strongly pointing to them being together associates wise.

-/-/-/-

Perhaps there isnt enough info to determine if UG had scum hiding in his Town pool.

[chardonnay]

The poll as of topic closing was:

Marcher (7): Alison, PSI, cayvie, cass, LC, Carot, Fatmo
Cass (3): Marcher, Wilgy, Jack
Chardonnay (1): DDL
Not Voting (4): UG, DJ, Jack, Dov


Post caps will be updated shortly

Wait? when did DDL vote me at? o.o

[chardonnay]

[mention]Carotenoid[/mention]

Is DDL's push on Marcher a bus, or misflip?

I did notice he was really only gunning for DJ Star despite the hard Marcher SR yesterday.

[Carotenoid]

[mention]chardonnay[/mention] oh hey since you're around let's work together!

Cayvie was the second one to vote UG after nutella. I think it looks good for her even if it didn't stay there a long time.

I'm feeling pretty good about cassowary being not w/w with UG, I think he TMI'd them town when cassowary was a consensus scum read.

The way PSINE scumread UG makes me think she's pretty much just lock town.


Just to make sure what's chainsawing?
This post does look bad for Alison, but I still think she's pretty townie for other reasons. I don't think I'm ready to scumread her yet.

[chardonnay]

Chainsawing is scum defending a buddy, (in this case UG), by attacking the attacker, (Who is me from Alison's pov).

I agree about town!Cassowary, and town!PSI

[Carotenoid]

@Carotenoid

Is DDL's push on Marcher a bus, or misflip?

I did notice he was really only gunning for DJ Star despite the hard Marcher SR yesterday.

I'm still conflicted. Like, regardless of everyone's alignemnet, I don't think MJ would have ever flipped on D1 right after they sub in, so the push kinda doesn't matter. Especially since DDL's push is pretty gentle, it's like "how did you find these precise posts in ten minutes?"
Idk it seems pretty obvious to me that they ISO'd top wagons and then there was no real follow-up, he hard scum-read Marcher entering D2 but was voting DJ so ehhh

I had this thought that Marcher/dov/DDL doesn't seem right and that I must be wrong but I can't remember why so maybe it wasn't important lol

[chardonnay]

^me and Cassowary, from Alison's pov*

-/-/-

pre-edit

thanks. For some reason I recalled the push being harder against Marcher from DDL

[Carotenoid]

Chainsawing is scum defending a buddy, (in this case UG), by attacking the attacker, (Who is me from Alison's pov).

I agree about town!Cassowary, and town!PSI

hmmmn okay

Alison is a really good wolf. Her wolf range is probably a lot bigger than most people, she's not the kind of player that has like signature moves as scum, if that makes sense. It really depends on context. Overall I'd say she's the kind of player that like to plan things, create and control narratives, etc. (as opposed to the persons that kinda just always improvise and wing it)

In this game I think she's town. We just played a game (Amdibals at the zoo), she was town and I was mafia, town lost at F5.
In this game I was a bit surprised by her tone at the beginning because it was just like different from the other games we had before but then I figured out that it's probably because she's rechanneling the frustration from the previous lost to make town play better in this game: she has been really pro-active at sorting and forcing people to do things.

I think the best way to read Alison is to see if she's pushing a narrative that is helping mafia agenda. So far, she has pushed a Jiwoon flip. Jiwoon was on the LHF side in this game and most probably would have been a flip sooner or later, I think that w!Alison would have kept that misflip for later and tried to flip a townie that has more chance of solving the game as it goes on.

[chardonnay]

Thank you for the insight onto Alison!

Is DDL/Marcher/DoV that pool you're looking at voting out of for today?

Was there anything I could help you with? I feel like you're doing a lot of the leg work RN haha

[Carotenoid]

^me and Cassowary, from Alison's pov*

-/-/-

pre-edit

thanks. For some reason I recalled the push being harder against Marcher from DDL

ooh yes I remember that's what bugged me!!
I was like "DDL pushed Marcher AND dov at EoD1 it can't be the team right???"

After reread from EoD1 I'm not even sure I would call the DDL-->Marcher thing a push.
I'm not too sure what to think about the dov scum read. Seems unlikely, but at the same time if the wolf team is DDL - UG - MJ - Dov - (X?) it puts an enormous amount of pressure on DDL so he might feel compelled to do that kind of shade on his partners.

[cayvie]

huh, okay

azula was vanilla goon lmao

[Alison]

Hey all, just writing this post to let you know that I've read the roleflips and some of the ensuing discussion, but I'm in three games at once, and I also have real life stuff to deal with, so I'm probably going to address this fully after I catch some sleep. The short summary is that these flips make Jovian look slightly better and chardonnay and PSI look a lot better, but I'm still not convinced that it makes DDL scum.

[Carotenoid]

Don't trust me that much I'm not that good at reading people.

Like, trust my intentions but have your own reads too.

I thought cass felt weird yesterday and I still do. I just disliked some people who voted for her yesterday more.

In any case, unless DJ and Jovian can provide better explanations for their actions that what they have so far, I'll be voting for one of them.

I really don't like this "don't trust me that much" line and it's been a kinda recurrent thing. In the meantime DDL is trying to force people to commit to reads (like he did for PSINE regarding UG).

I'm pretty sure he didn't mention the bolded part on day 1. He was initially voting cassowary, the Neutron switch was supposedly made on a whim as a flash wagon so it seems to me he was pretty fixed on voting cassowary for a good part of the day. This just seems like an excuse made-up afterwards.

[chardonnay]

thanks. For some reason I recalled the push being harder against Marcher from DDL

ooh yes I remember that's what bugged me!!
I was like "DDL pushed Marcher AND dov at EoD1 it can't be the team right???"

After reread from EoD1 I'm not even sure I would call the DDL-->Marcher thing a push.
I'm not too sure what to think about the dov scum read. Seems unlikely, but at the same time if the wolf team is DDL - UG - MJ - Dov - (X?) it puts an enormous amount of pressure on DDL so he might feel compelled to do that kind of shade on his partners.

I think DDL trying to lone deep wolf vs. a game state with lots of townie looking players is risky. Unless DDL was planning on back tracking the distancing in a later day phase.

If DDL is scum I wanna say there is town between DoV/MJ, and theres scum floating elsewhere.

[Carotenoid]

Thank you for the insight onto Alison!

Is DDL/Marcher/DoV that pool you're looking at voting out of for today?

Was there anything I could help you with? I feel like you're doing a lot of the leg work RN haha

No problem!

For now I think dov only has good chance of being scum if MJ is scum (for the PSINE-nutella read). So I have no interest in flipping him next at the moment.

DDL and MJ both have scum equity individually and I don't think they have super strong associative or disassociative. I'm a bit more confident on my DDL read but I also think it's better to resolve MJ first. I want to reread them but probs won't do it tonight as I'm about to go sleep

[Carotenoid]

lol everyone is various degrees of shocked by the flip and cayvie is just like *azula was vanilla goon*

[chardonnay]

I think I want to re-read DDL more myself. I recall strongly thinking he was town for a while.

MJ I feel less good about since Nuetron flipped town. DoV is idk haha

[Carotenoid]

thanks. For some reason I recalled the push being harder against Marcher from DDL

ooh yes I remember that's what bugged me!!
I was like "DDL pushed Marcher AND dov at EoD1 it can't be the team right???"

After reread from EoD1 I'm not even sure I would call the DDL-->Marcher thing a push.
I'm not too sure what to think about the dov scum read. Seems unlikely, but at the same time if the wolf team is DDL - UG - MJ - Dov - (X?) it puts an enormous amount of pressure on DDL so he might feel compelled to do that kind of shade on his partners.

I think DDL trying to lone deep wolf vs. a game state with lots of townie looking players is risky. Unless DDL was planning on back tracking the distancing in a later day phase.

If DDL is scum I wanna say there is town between DoV/MJ, and theres scum floating elsewhere.

Yeah I agree it's hard for him but like, it might be a world where he kinda just didn't have the choice.KitsuShel, U-G and dov were all not able to be super present at some point so he had to carry.

Any idea for the scum floating elsewhere? A lot of people look better from UG's flip. For me that mostly leaves Jackofhearts, DrWilgy and Fatmo. I'm not really sure what the poisonning thing works but Jack probably town? DrWilgy still feels townie for me (notably his frustration of not being listened and wanting to flip between his reads). Fatmo maybe is scum by default but hmmn like that's it