The Syndicate

Not alot of people seem to agree with alot of the theories I'm putting out, granted I've only spat out two theories on three people, but even so, I think for today I'll be most interested in reading other's thoughts as opposed to fishing through a bunch of posts to try and wrangle up something that makes sense in my brainplace.

That said, it seems clear to me where the focus of today will be and baring the absence of an Act of Don Cheadle-Kracken, I can venture a fairly accurate guess as to the direction of the vote.

*THAT* said, I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the following:

1) Gobnait's eerily accurate decoding of Bac's post about the secret role theory.

2) Carmen's missing Mainchin thoughts

Linki - Is that a trick question Rhinfrew?

5.

Night 3


Poll runs till Wed May 15, 2013 7:07 pm


Potion
4
Queran Gloomsoul (1), Bac Wunderelin (6), Shand Azureye (9), Dierdre Wonderbird (12) 20%
Spell
4
Etain Royalskull (5), Fane Winebattle (11), Laine Crystalsteam (14), Rhinfrew Flowingrass (15) 20%
Rune
9
Izett Cruelsinger (4), Eurolyvn Blissfulone (8), Miyuki Lovelymoth (10), Mainchin Ironbeast (13), Ameerah Frolicstag (16), Gobnait Gingeruite (17), Grutfud Orangesprite (18), Finnian Metalfox (20), Bronwyn Mightyfeet (21) 45%
Crystal Ball/Hosts/Ser Sockalicious/Deaded/Nons
3
MovingPictures07 (3), Roxy (7), Dilan Bluemoss (19) 15%
Total votes : 20

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:
Linki - Is that a trick question Rhinfrew?

No, it was not. If no satisfactory answer comes nigh, I shall plant a seed upon his name, and pray to Allah that a vineyard grows around his skeletal frame.

3

Queran Gloomsoul wrote: Not alot of people seem to agree with alot of the theories I'm putting out, granted I've only spat out two theories on three people, but even so, I think for today I'll be most interested in reading other's thoughts as opposed to fishing through a bunch of posts to try and wrangle up something that makes sense in my brainplace.

That said, it seems clear to me where the focus of today will be and baring the absence of an Act of Don Cheadle-Kracken, I can venture a fairly accurate guess as to the direction of the vote.

*THAT* said, I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the following:

1) Gobnait's eerily accurate decoding of Bac's post about the secret role theory.

2) Carmen's missing Mainchin thoughts

Linki - Is that a trick question Rhinfrew?

5.

I'll speak to my missing Mainchin thoughts. I was never able to go back and read up on Mainchin to gather my own thoughts like I would have liked to. This has been a crazy busy week so far with field trips and doctor's appointments and work. I'd like to say that I have time right now to read over Mainchin's posts, but the baby could wake at anytime. I can say, though, that I think Flowingrass has a great case against Finnian. Finnian's behavior and lack of voting along with the lack of night kills is suspicious to me.

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:
Linki - Is that a trick question Rhinfrew?

No, it was not. If no satisfactory answer comes nigh, I shall plant a seed upon his name, and pray to Allah that a vineyard grows around his skeletal frame.

3

I was just wondering if you expected somebody to come up and post "Oh yeah I can vouch for Metalfox he's been really active in BTSC" or something lol.

Personally I think his most recent posts, while overtly defensive, are at the least a step up from his previous carefree attitude. I'm still not quite satisfied that he's not up to no good, and he's certainly in the running to get my vote.

6.

No NK. I've done a quick read of the thread, just wanted to post my thoughts before doing a more thorough read. I, too, can't see a single townie reason for Carmen not getting lynched. It could be one of the secret roles, but how can we be sure that secret role is aligned with the town?

Bac Wunderelin wrote:I am glad I won a contest; there were 4 prizes. One was a Lynch Save, another a protection from all ills night two, one the reveal of a role (the Shoemaker was revealed, I believe) and the fourth the private revelation of one of the SKs secrets. I chose the Lynch Save, and a smart move that was!!! The three that chose amongst the other prizes know I tell true about the prize list.

If we believe Bac, then Carmen not getting lynched could not have been because of a prize win, since Bac claims he himself won the Lynch Save. But I'm not clear why Bac says choosing the Lynch Save was a smart move. Bac, do you mean the lynch was diverted to you, and if so, how do you know this? Sorry if this was obvious, but I am a little confused about your posts since you started speaking in English again.

1

I think Bac drew that conclusion by reading the Lynch Post Title, which I think mentioned Pixies?
7

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:I think Bac drew that conclusion by reading the Lynch Post Title, which I think mentioned Pixies?
7

Thank you Queran, I understand now. Though the Lynch Post Title also goes on to say (but not really a Pixie as much at is about a boy). In any case, it seems a little farfetched to me that Bac would get a Lynch Divert the same day he won the Lynch Save.

2

I think I drew that conclusion by being told so by the hosts.

*3*

Shand, is there anyway you can update and post your Days chart? My head is getting fuzzy and I must retire soon.

4

I won a prize, and i was told by the hosts that I no longer had it as I had been the person lynched.

As I said, there are three other people who can confirm (to themselves, not outing in the thread) that I was right about the other prizes. And no one can say they got the first prize. Becasue I got it. And it was a lynch save. You may find this far fetched, but truth it indeed is


*4*

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:Shand, is there anyway you can update and post your Days chart? My head is getting fuzzy and I must retire soon.

4

I'm on it, give me a few minutes.

3

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:Fair enough Finnian, my point is not to be so aggressive about people wishing you'd put forth more effort. It looks strange when it's Day 3 and you pop in to make one or two liners and not much else. Nobody's saying you should make uberposts or nab a baddie in your first case, but *a* thought would be nice. Especially considering the sorry state of affairs we find ourselves in baddie-catching wise.

2.

Well sorry for coming off as aggressive. Maybe I'm just a tad frustrated that I'm being accused of just not caring. I do have life outside.

1

Carmen Brightsun wrote:

Bac Wunderelin wrote:

Carmen Brightsun wrote:Yay, no night kill.

What think you of my claim that the stringing up that should have resulted in your death was redirected to me?

*2*

I don't understand what you're asking me.

I am asking you why it is that you did not pass away, and why it is that the lynch was redirected to me? Were you not the winner of the last diurnal periods polling? Did not the largest contingent choose to string up YOU? Yet here you are.

Is this query unexpected?

*5*

This was done in a bit of a hurry, please let me know if there are any mistakes.

Oops, forgot to number my post.

4

Shand Azureye wrote:

This was done in a bit of a hurry, please let me know if there are any mistakes.

I'm pretty sure I voted for Jorhan on Day 2.

1

Shand, had you been born in my home country, you probably would have been stoned for witchcraft. What amazing work you do.

What is your opinion on Finnian (who the Hosts, peace be upon them, keep misspelling)? I see you voted Miyuki, someone that has also had my eye.

5

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:Bac, I have two questions for you:

First question: Can you elaborate on your thoughts about the secret roles that you posted while you were in Anime Mode? I remember thinking Gobnait's uncannily accurate deciphering of your japanese posts regarding the secret roles was odd.

Second Question: Do you have any thoughts on my "catch" regarding Carmen's saying she would read back on Mainchin and then actually never posting anything about her thoughts on mainchin?


3.

I posted the correct translation thingy, why everyone continued to use Google is a mystery to me.

There are 7 secret archtypes. right? One has already been revealed, a nice one, a Shoemaker. There are 6 more. I feel that at least some of them are a hidden confederacy of maliciousness. With one revealed, the Shoemaker, and perhaps one more friendly person, that leaves 5 more. Perhaps four or five are an ill natured Gang or Four (or Five), and an independant person (or not).

My point it that it is naive to think that what is on the first page is all we have to deal with. I think not. I may or may not have reason specifically to think so, but really, any person who is paying attention might think so regardless of outside knowledge.

Second, I saw something in one of Mainchins posts that led me to believe he may be a more fair person than he may appear at first glance. Certainly, though, I have no reason to think so of Carmen. Zero, really. I think she tried to assassinate me, tbh.

*6*

Dierdre, we publish together: this chart reminds me, I chose Ameerah in our last election as I feel she has been slippery and vague. My vote would do naught to spread the poll as the Nasty Spinning Guy is unlikley to have chosen a word in the language of the Rising Sun. She mainly seems to be flinging wet dirt with no real basis.

Dierdre Wonderbird wrote:I'm pretty sure I voted for Jorhan on Day 2.

Thank you for the correction, Dierdre! There were a couple of other small errors too, which appeared when I deleted the rows for dead players. The following is the error-free:

Rather than just trying to even get you people to believe me, which experience tells me is a waste of time, I think it would profit me better to read up on whom I may have threatened. So that is my plan for the next several days Time for repose


*7*

I believe you.

1

Bac, if I'm understanding correctly you won a prize that was a save from that activity we do during the day to (hopefully) catch mafia members. Then, the hosts informed you that your save had been used because of an attempt on your life through the process we use to hopefully catch mafia. I believe you, and have had it happen several times before where I won something like a np and the next night a Mcbaddie tried to kill me - so I know it can happen. You sound sincere to me and I believe you, which really makes me turn my head toward the person who should have died in that process we use to try and catch mafias - Carmen. I will spend some time tomorrow looking further at her.

*1

My belief is because of 2 other recent occurrences, but the prize sounds like it could be true.

2

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:Wow, I just realized I hadn't absorbed any of Page 15 since I read it at 5am. There's some good stuff in there. Mainchin, you say you're sure your read on Laine is right?

Eurolyvn, very insightful analysis about Carmen and Fane. I'm now also surprised she never gave Fane a closer look. In my personal opinion, Finnian is still a slightly better candidate for lynching tomorrow, but if you and others want to go for Carmen instead then I'm with you.

I think I missed the case on Finnian. I will have to look back over his posts. I don't know about voting her. I was thrown by Fane voting for her, but if he is her teammate and he knew she would not be lynched it might be a good distancing tactic really. I don't know though, I can't make up my mind.

1

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:What is your opinion on Finnian (who the Hosts, peace be upon them, keep misspelling)? I see you voted Miyuki, someone that has also had my eye.

5

Oh, I missed this part of your post kind Djinn. I haven't paid much attention to Finnian, to be honest. I will most certainly read through his posts, and the cases made against him today. For now, my feeling is that Carmen is our best option.

After reading through Carmen's posts, particularly her night posts, I find myself hesitant to vote her.

I don't understand why she seemed to gloss over surviving her fate though. An innocent should proclaim her innocence. Vote shenanigans could easily have been the cause, a double win for the evil group. Destroy Bac, and let Carmen suffer the consequences.

Is she an innocent, distracted by RL, or a not so pure, also distracted by RL..... those night posts

(3)

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:

Finnian Metalfox wrote:

Queran Gloomsoul wrote:The aloof disinterested act is starting to get pretty tired.

Mainchin Ironbeast wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:And any reason you'd be up for a Carmen lynch but not a Finnian one? He missed the poll again yesterday and didn't defend himself or offer any thoughts or suspicions, even though he was on the chopping block. Either he's the least concerned mafia player I've ever met, not voting is related to his power somehow, or he's simply mocking us.

Either suits me as long as we get a general agreement. Finnian just doesn't seem to care which in itself is quite worrying.

This is a game. Games take second priority to other things. I have stuff going on lately and frankly deducing every detail in a mafia game isn't going to be placed above all other things. So I'll do what I please and if you wanna lynch me for it go for it. Waste a day period on a civ. I'll try and get votes in but me not looking much I haven't had much to say so I'd probably get jumped on for those too. I don't want to be replaced because this is just temporary, but whatever.

Not asking for every detail, just asking for a little more than "lol dunno "

If you didn't have enough time to play, or don't want to, then don't sign up, as it's unfair to those who actually do.

I agree with Queran here. And about yay for no NK!

(1)

Yay for no NK!

That was an interesting theory regarding the lack of sunny period results possibly correlating to a lack of moony period results. If I remember correctly, however, was a civ not the victor of the first sunny period? Mayhaps I should like to go back to page 1 for a review.

Also... curious indeed about our 3 sunny period results, and our Fair Pixie surviving an attempt on her/his life. A frame job on Carmen? Or pure coincidence? Or proof that Carmen isn't as fair as she/he seems? Perhaps there was manipulation we are unaware of. More things to ponder.


*1*

Ok I caught up with where the Finnian suspicion is coming from. It is basically based upon the theory that the lack of NKs is because of someone missing the vote since the hostesses made it clear that not voting would result in you losing your power. Here is my problem with this theory. There is no single Baddie that holds the night kill ability as far as I can see. They each hold a separate ability, I would assume that the Night Kill is a team ability. Why would Finnian missing the vote = no NK? Is there more to this case that I am missing?

Regarding Carmen's survival. If Bac knows as fact thathe was the one who was actually lynched, it seems pretty likely that Rumple may have had something to do with it, in my opinion. Unless I missed Carmen's explanation of how she survived...?

2

Izett, I'm not totally clear on what you're saying in your post; could you clarify?

And Euro, I think the case on Finnian (at least as I see it) has less to do with missing our daily activity correlating with NKs (I think you're right to assume a teammate could send in the NK). It's more that he's been around and posting but isn't contributing to the game in any way.

And Rhinfrew, if I'm reading you right you've been talking about Grutfud, not Finnian, right? Grutfud is the one who participated in the democratic process on Sunny Period 2 but not 1 or 3. I suppose it's a remote possibility that they are the SKs and that, having both not participated, were unable to kill, but it just seems counterintuitive somehow. Personally I doubt that that explains the lack of NKs, especially since there should be two groups doing them per moony period.

2

The problem I have with Finnian is that most people who didn't have time would say so from the off. Something like I'll be busy for a couple of days.
Carmen I wasn't convinced totally that she was not civ but that lynch switch is pretty damning.

So in short I feel we still have two good lynch candidates.

1

Lol Bea, welcome back, you were missed.

I went back and read all of Finnian's posts. It's no wonder that I haven't thought much about him at all until now. Other than a brief mention of Mainchain, there's absolutely nothing there. However, there's a slight possibility that he's a disinterested townie. I still think Carmen is a better bet for today, and Finnian can be looked at again tomorrow. Here's to hoping there are two sunny periods in a row!

Talking of sunny periods and moony periods, if Rumpel is able to pick such common three and five letter words as the ones we have in mind, then I have to congratulate him, he won even before the game started. I won't begrudge the mafia a win, so far they have done a mighty good job of hiding, credit where credit's due. However, if Rumpel's ability is really that overpowered then where's the skill, where's the fight? Having said that, I do have a lot of faith in our hostesses, and do believe that the game is exceptionally well balanced.

I forgot to number my last two posts, so am doing it retroactively; our gracious hostesses have said this should be fine.

7

Shand Azureye wrote:Lol Bea, welcome back, you were missed.

I went back and read all of Finnian's posts. It's no wonder that I haven't thought much about him at all until now. Other than a brief mention of Mainchain, there's absolutely nothing there. However, there's a slight possibility that he's a disinterested townie. I still think Carmen is a better bet for today, and Finnian can be looked at again tomorrow. Here's to hoping there are two sunny periods in a row!

Disinterested friends do not elect to vote in Night polls and ignore Day polls.

6

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:Disinterested friends do not elect to vote in Night polls and ignore Day poll.

That is a good point. I wonder though, why a baddie would intentionally forfeit whatever moony period power he might have.

8

I've popped in to catch up, but once again have no time to reply at the moment. I have another appt in 2o minutes and have to head out the door. Please don't mistake my business for baddiness I promise after tomorrow, I will be more involved. Hang in there with me y'all and trust me.

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote: And Rhinfrew, if I'm reading you right you've been talking about Grutfud, not Finnian, right? Grutfud is the one who participated in the democratic process on Sunny Period 2 but not 1 or 3. I suppose it's a remote possibility that they are the SKs and that, having both not participated, were unable to kill, but it just seems counterintuitive somehow. Personally I doubt that that explains the lack of NKs, especially since there should be two groups doing them per moony period.

2

No Gobby, I'm talking about Finnian. But I had not noticed Grutfud. According to Shand's chart, Grutfud missed the odd ones, after which followed peaceful evenings. Good catch.

Say, how do you know who is supposed to kill when?

7

Yay for no night kill!!!

Bac, we really are like ships passing in the night. I am not sure why you think I'm being blendy and using hyberbole. I spent a great deal of time on Day 2 reading back through a lot of posts and posted my thoughts on the people I'm suspicious of: Carmen, Mainchin, and Laine.

Mainchin has now come out and basically vouched for Laine which I'm not sure what to make of that. Could very well be a civvie vouching for another civvie. But couldn't it also be a bold mafia move? One teammates sees another teammate taking heat and decides to make a preemptive move to protect that teammate? I'm torn on this to be honest.

And Finnian is just confusing the heck out of me. Pointedly not voting in lynches, but continues to vote in night polls....why do that? Unless they don't have an active night power and can afford to not vote. But that still doesn't seem like civvie behavior to me.

1

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote:Izett, I'm not totally clear on what you're saying in your post; could you clarify?

Izett Cruelsinger wrote:Yay for no NK!

That was an interesting theory regarding the lack of sunny period results possibly correlating to a lack of moony period results. If I remember correctly, however, was a civ not the victor of the first sunny period? Mayhaps I should like to go back to page 1 for a review.

Also... curious indeed about our 3 sunny period results, and our Fair Pixie surviving an attempt on her/his life. A frame job on Carmen? Or pure coincidence? Or proof that Carmen isn't as fair as she/he seems? Perhaps there was manipulation we are unaware of. More things to ponder.


*1*

Someone (sorry need to go back and check at some point to clarify it in my mind) had mentioned a correlation between lynches and NKs on the subsequent nights. I was pointing out, however, that a civ was lynched on day 1 and 2... but in reading the other posts made since then, I see that was meant was likely not the lynch results per se, but rather one single person's involvement (or non-involvement) in said lynch. Now that I see that, it makes more sense, and makes my previous comment a moot point.

The 2nd paragraph I'm just asking myself what the lynch attempt on Bac means about Carmen, if anything. (Could be anything from a red herring to her trying to kill him, in my book.) Carmen's most recent post again strikes me as odd, but if what I'm thinking about Carmen is correct, an odd post makes sense and doesn't say anything about her alignment. I'm glad there is more time before the poll closes.

2

Shand Azureye wrote:

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:Disinterested friends do not elect to vote in Night polls and ignore Day poll.

That is a good point. I wonder though, why a baddie would intentionally forfeit whatever moony period power he might have.

8

This is what I am thinking too. What benefit is it for a Baddie to intentionally skip all the lynch polls an give up their night power?

3

Going to read up, but today is probably going to be a chill day for me, so don't expect too much

8?

Eurolyvn Blissfulone wrote:

Shand Azureye wrote:

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:Disinterested friends do not elect to vote in Night polls and ignore Day poll.

That is a good point. I wonder though, why a baddie would intentionally forfeit whatever moony period power he might have.

8

This is what I am thinking too. What benefit is it for a Baddie to intentionally skip all the lynch polls an give up their night power?

3

I agree with Shand on this also. If we are going to look at players who are missing alot of the game, we would have to include Grutfud and Lyle, and I'm not sure who else. Although, a player who did have a nightkill and lost it due to not voting, might try to appear absent for a few days, and then reappear with an excuse of having had some sort of problem to deal with. Especially since someone, Rhinfrew, I think, pointed out the idea of the no vote/no nightpower. Does this sound logical?

I'm hoping a few people will reread some of Carmen's posts made during the evenings, and discuss whether they redeem her or not.

4

Carmen Brightsun wrote:I've popped in to catch up, but once again have no time to reply at the moment. I have another appt in 2o minutes and have to head out the door. Please don't mistake my business for baddiness I promise after tomorrow, I will be more involved. Hang in there with me y'all and trust me.

I hope this means you will be back before the lynch is over to answer some of the questions and suspicions put to you. Because asking us to trust you at this point is asking a lot.

4

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:

Shand Azureye wrote:Lol Bea, welcome back, you were missed.

I went back and read all of Finnian's posts. It's no wonder that I haven't thought much about him at all until now. Other than a brief mention of Mainchain, there's absolutely nothing there. However, there's a slight possibility that he's a disinterested townie. I still think Carmen is a better bet for today, and Finnian can be looked at again tomorrow. Here's to hoping there are two sunny periods in a row!

Disinterested friends do not elect to vote in Night polls and ignore Day polls.

6

I'm not "electing" not to ignore day polls. -_- I'm missing them. Night polls are easy to get because there's little thought to put into them.

EBWOP: *not electing to ignore. I'm tired, dammit!

2

Rhinfrew Flowingrass wrote:

Gobnait Gingeruite wrote: And Rhinfrew, if I'm reading you right you've been talking about Grutfud, not Finnian, right? Grutfud is the one who participated in the democratic process on Sunny Period 2 but not 1 or 3. I suppose it's a remote possibility that they are the SKs and that, having both not participated, were unable to kill, but it just seems counterintuitive somehow. Personally I doubt that that explains the lack of NKs, especially since there should be two groups doing them per moony period.

2

No Gobby, I'm talking about Finnian. But I had not noticed Grutfud. According to Shand's chart, Grutfud missed the odd ones, after which followed peaceful evenings. Good catch.

Say, how do you know who is supposed to kill when?

7

I don't know who is supposed to kill when; I am making assumptions based on past games, which I admit could be totally wrong. I am used to SKs NKing each moony period, and, if there are 2 teams of evildoers, one killing every even moony period and one killing every odd moony period.

There are too many inactive players, I can't even venture guesses on enough players to come up with numbers of who should be evil and who shouldn't that I have any confidence in....

Miyuki, I still think both Carmen and Finnian may be bad. I don't think Carmen's posts last moony period redeem her yet, but at least she's cited specific reasons for absence (field trips and doctor's appointments) and seems willing to play along a little bit.

I guess on reflection, part of me just wants to lynch Finnian because of his contrariness. That's not really fair of me, because it has no real bearing on his win conditions, and if I thought he was on our side I'd try to be patient with him. But if they're both evildoers, as I believe, it seems just as good a reason to choose him first as any.

And thanks for your answer, Izett. That clears things up.

2