The Syndicate

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:28 am Samu
Wilgy
Syn
Kyle
Marmot
Grand Scheme
sig

The ordering of this list is unchanged after individual ISOs (I'm not bothering with Samu. He's town). I might separate Kyle and Marmot into separate green tiers if I want to get meticulous, but it's Christmas. Eve. I think the team could be exactly Sig + Grand Scheme, but if it's not then Marmot is my other guess.

I believe we have one mischop left by POE numbers, but things are wonky in this setup. At any rate, clearing 4 players should secure the win. If anyone objects to Samu, Wilgy, Syn, or Kyle being cleared, speak now.

Scanning Marmot's ISO in full, my critique is this: his posts fit perfectly into the agenda Made was pushing. The small size of this game would prompt the Mafia team to be aggressive (they don't need to survive for a long time. Just a couple of day phases, so I think we're more likely to see coordinated pushes in this setup than in a ~15 player game, for instance). He defends Made, he pushes hard on Wilgy and Syn with a some smaller nudges toward Kyle and Alison. I think the suspicions against Wilgy in this game have been bad, and we now know that in at least one case, they were dishonest as well. I do not think Wilgy has done anything outside of the very ordinary for him, and I actually disagree completely with Marmot's assessment of Wilgy's entrance now that I've read it. Wilgy was the victim of the most direct and widespread bandwagon of the game until Made's name was dragged up. And Made was at the forefront of the Wilgy push. So was Marmot.

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:20 am Wilgy's stocking is full of coal
But Grand Scheme will not judge his soul

Agreed with samu's Change My Mind
Wilgy's stocking is full of wine

Grand Scheme starts with a careful non-stance on Wilgy. That's better than a firmly oppositional stance. I do not think this post is unfair.

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:33 am Confident scum speak like boasters
And syn is two of the first three posters

This looks like an accusation against Syn, but I'm not sure of the point.

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:06 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:06 pm Who's telling cat things?

There's not been a word 'tween he and I
But cat's belief could be TMI

And of all the posts that have been played
The towniest, to me, is Made.

For what it's worth, cat's perceptions of wilgy could very easily have stemmed from The Simpsons, when Wilgy posted twice on Day 1 and got mischopped (playing as Milhouse). Sound familiar?
I don't love the town read on Made.

I already talked about one point in this long post earlier. I actually don't hate his treatment of cat in some of these moments, even though we turned out to be wrong about them. The bit where cat votes Alison for being Alison, and where cat calls out nutella for the crime of not being a player in this game are both wonky and I don't object to LC GS pointing them out.

Uh he didn't post at all on Day 2. Not even once.

When he returned on Day 3, he did this:

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:15 pm I chose to shoot Sloonei last night
Maybe we should string him up tight

[VOTE: sloonei] aubergine

I don't mean to toot my own horn, but I should be a solid town read for everybody in this game or else they're commies. So this vote is whacke.
His response wasn't all that inspiring:

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:45 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:21 am

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:19 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:44 pm @Grand Scheme how much of this game have you read?

Though perhaps I have been slankier than most
I have dutifully skimmed through every post

You must have missed the part where I am Santa-and-Mrs-Claus-confirmed, undeniably and without a shade of doubt, lock town.

I'm not gonna argue and wax philosophical
What you propose is quite comfortably possible

And this new one I'm just seeing now:

Grand Scheme wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:16 pm My defense of Made was erroneous
But truly, I am not felonious!
My teammate treatment is not so blatant
This is a result of being vacant
That's why I accused you, Sloon
Imagining a bussing goon
Light skims during this busy season
Unwise snap judgments, that's the reason

I am of two minds here. I was recently partnered with this mysterious figure in Grasslands, and he deliberately tried to appear lost/behind on the action in that game to keep the heat off himself. So that is in his playbook. But would he try to run it on me after I just watched and helped him do it a couple months ago? It's entirely believable that a player would not be fully invested in a game on December 21st. But that tells me nothing about his alignment.

Looking at the ISOs comprehensively, I actually think Marmot looks worse than Grand Scheme. Marmot's pushes are more directly in line with the agenda Made flashed. Grand Scheme has been more aloof and isolated. I don't award him townie points for specifically, but I have more reason to directly apply scum points to Marmot.

honestly I have no complaints about your conclusions

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 11:23 am 1. I've played recent games with Made so that's moot, its just still ongoing so cant really be discussed.
2. Why is it odd for me to "drag my feet" I was literally the only player engaged in the Made discussion ive been up front the entire time in everything just because I didn't jump on the wagon and sheep shouldn't mean anything.
3. I really hate that you just continue to dismiss or flat out ignore what I and others have said about syn and wilgy. Seems disingenuous.

1. Fair
2. You were not the only player engaged. My problem is that you did not seem to want to scrutinize Made. Your posts felt like you were increasingly being backed into a corner, rather than attempting to solve the game.
3. I am in no way ignoring what you've said about syn and wilgy. I talked about that a lot in my case against Made yesterday: I think the arguments did not make sense and, at least in Made's case, were bad faith. I disagree with them completely. And also, that's not the point of this exercise. I was ISOing players specifically for their interactions with Made. This is what I always do.
We can talk some more about Syn and Wilgy if you'd like. But my position is still what it was yesterday when we chopped Made, who was pushing Syn and Wilgy.

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:09 pm honestly I have no complaints about your conclusions

Marmot or Grand Scheme?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:14 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:09 pm honestly I have no complaints about your conclusions

Marmot or Grand Scheme?

I'm trying to change from the "policy chop slankers" approach, so Marmot wins there

though LC sussing you after you going out of your way to hunt Made and then leaving it parked is... eh

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:19 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:14 pm

Syn wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:09 pm honestly I have no complaints about your conclusions

Marmot or Grand Scheme?

I'm trying to change from the "policy chop slankers" approach, so Marmot wins there

though LC sussing you after you going out of your way to hunt Made and then leaving it parked is... eh

also Marmot's case on me involved taking obvious jokes extremely seriously, and as far as I know he possesses a sense of humour so that doesn't parse for me

Kyle is the "cleared" name from my list that I am least sure of. I think the way Made went after Wilgy should basically confirm the doctor. I think Made and Samu's interactions are an excellent look. I think Syn's response to Made becoming a suspect looks very good and very authentic.
Kyle just doesn't feel like he's mafia, but I can't point to anything as confidently as those other three.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:13 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 11:23 am 1. I've played recent games with Made so that's moot, its just still ongoing so cant really be discussed.
2. Why is it odd for me to "drag my feet" I was literally the only player engaged in the Made discussion ive been up front the entire time in everything just because I didn't jump on the wagon and sheep shouldn't mean anything.
3. I really hate that you just continue to dismiss or flat out ignore what I and others have said about syn and wilgy. Seems disingenuous.

1. Fair
2. You were not the only player engaged. My problem is that you did not seem to want to scrutinize Made. Your posts felt like you were increasingly being backed into a corner, rather than attempting to solve the game.
3. I am in no way ignoring what you've said about syn and wilgy. I talked about that a lot in my case against Made yesterday: I think the arguments did not make sense and, at least in Made's case, were bad faith. I disagree with them completely. And also, that's not the point of this exercise. I was ISOing players specifically for their interactions with Made. This is what I always do.
We can talk some more about Syn and Wilgy if you'd like. But my position is still what it was yesterday when we chopped Made, who was pushing Syn and Wilgy.

For 2

I was really the only player engaged that wasn't on the train and willing to switch. Now id say you're not wrong that my tone was backed into a corner since honestly I felt that way, but id argue it shouldn't be taken in a scum sense.

I knew I had to make a decision on made, which I hadn't being one of the fewer more active players I had to decide if I was fine with his lynch or thought he was cov which would've required me to go deeper into a counter wagon. I was struggling alot last phase placing him and actually found him rather compelling. But. I think you're reading into what I was doing wrong.

If we jettison all the tin foil I'd say I look the civvest out of the remaining players. All I was doing last phase was trying to figure out where I stood on Made and provide an alternative option if I decided he wasn't mafia. I also feel like I did more scum hunting outside of the made/sloonie argument.

I'd also say my switch may not ve enough to give me town credit. But, also shouldn't be enough to get me lynched. Think about it this way mafia team had 3 people only 3 players were on made wagon and there were other players already voted. Mafia could've easily tied it up, assuming none of the first 3 voters on made were teammates and axe the other player.

And ik this is a bit of a wifom argument. But really seems like you're not looking at the whole picture when it comes to me and just Made

So if we assume wilgy is a civ. I'd say chances are high Marmot is a mafia member. With potentially lc. I'm not willing to reject the deep wolf argument all the way but should scout out other options first.

Also this is a bit more mech talk. But I think it would be odd if mafia hasn't gifted themselves coal. So I'd say jt would come down between marmot/wilgy for that

I'm dinning feliz navidad to everybody.

I'm most favorable to lynch sig, shoot marmot and lynch grand scheme if there is a town in the two first.

I will read calmly what u writted.

Samusamu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 6:40 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:49 am sloonei is civ purely from the standpoint that if he's mafia and able to fake a post that long, then i would rather just lose to him than fight him

Is not only being long, the analysis, the how its said, the what is said, when (momentum) or why ( agenda).

The active tone with natural thought process.

Thats inst easy to fake.

Its not the first time a deepwolf faked to me that kind of things, but only two or three times i didnt saw differences between a great town or a great deepwolf in a scum.

There is nothing that puts me on alert from Slooney.

And usually i put townlean with 2 o 3 points of 7 i usually analize.

He is just 7/7

I'm not there yet dude no spoilers please

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:57 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:49 am sloonei is civ purely from the standpoint that if he's mafia and able to fake a post that long, then i would rather just lose to him than fight him

Kyle haven't you heard that I'm literally the best mafia player in the world now?

the whole world?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:07 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:57 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:49 am sloonei is civ purely from the standpoint that if he's mafia and able to fake a post that long, then i would rather just lose to him than fight him

Kyle haven't you heard that I'm literally the best mafia player in the world now?

the whole world?

Well I don't think we've tested me against Antarctic mafia players yet.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:13 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:07 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:57 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:49 am sloonei is civ purely from the standpoint that if he's mafia and able to fake a post that long, then i would rather just lose to him than fight him

Kyle haven't you heard that I'm literally the best mafia player in the world now?

the whole world?

Well I don't think we've tested me against Antarctic mafia players yet.

what about Mars? what about astronauts

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:16 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:13 pm

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:07 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:57 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:49 am sloonei is civ purely from the standpoint that if he's mafia and able to fake a post that long, then i would rather just lose to him than fight him

Kyle haven't you heard that I'm literally the best mafia player in the world now?

the whole world?

Well I don't think we've tested me against Antarctic mafia players yet.

what about Mars? what about astronauts

Mars is out of my jurisdiction.

I'm gonna be the best mafia player on Mars

sloonei is sus for doing what I was going to do but doing a better job than I would have

@sig why were you conflicted about made? What reasons did you have to town read him?

What is your current opinion on syn?

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:22 pm sloonei is sus for doing what I was going to do but doing a better job than I would have

Fair

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:22 pm @sig why were you conflicted about made? What reasons did you have to town read him?

What is your current opinion on syn?

We were mind melding alot early on with samu and wilgy, he seemed more open to discussing mech/shots then other people, and his posts seemed genuine.

Lc has been flying under the radar, but would mafia lc vote for sloonie

He does have some weird connections with made as well

And I'm fairly certain I laid out all my reasoning for and against made throughout the day. And I'll stick with my assessment that I didn't think he'd flip mafia. But, voted for it based off zloonies case/him and samu being on the qagon

And for syn maybe his Eod1 stuff isn't that bad if nobody else seems to think so. Though he'd still not be in my town core. Probably wouldn't want to lynch him today though

I dont like that wilgy has now voted for me two days in a row and never gave any reasoning.

And seeing that tomorrow's Christmas I'd say there's a strong chance I won't really be around besides popping in so if we could settle on someone today that would probably be for the best.


And by someone I mean someone other than sig. :P

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:33 pm And for syn maybe his Eod1 stuff isn't that bad if nobody else seems to think so. Though he'd still not be in my town core. Probably wouldn't want to lynch him today though

Why was syn’s End of Day 1 behavior indicative of a wolf?

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:34 pm I dont like that wilgy has now voted for me two days in a row and never gave any reasoning.

Is this a suspicion?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:38 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:33 pm And for syn maybe his Eod1 stuff isn't that bad if nobody else seems to think so. Though he'd still not be in my town core. Probably wouldn't want to lynch him today though

Why was syn’s End of Day 1 behavior indicative of a wolf?

Because a tie would let mafia control the lynch and would've thrown the game into further chaos and honeslty this theory is gonna stick for me until wilgy or syn flips.

I mean we're talking a last second swoop that saved wilgy, literally last second he cast his vote at 5 exactly. Right when we were discussing switching to wilgy. If I had switched as planned from cat to wilgy it would've been a 3 way tie which mafia would've picked.

I'd assume they'd do me, then we'd have wasted a phase on someone else.

Do you not agree inserting a vote last second onto another potential wagon and then giving the reasoning of first vote was a joke is a bit bad?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:38 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:34 pm I dont like that wilgy has now voted for me two days in a row and never gave any reasoning.

Is this a suspicion?

I'm not sure. I really want it to be syn/wilgy since I want the bragging rights. But, not quite sure that's right or if im tunneling.

Even if wilgy is just being a tunneling/disengaged civ I'm still unhappy about jt nothing I can do to ease his concern since their isnt any

Though in hindsight I do find it a bit suspicious that Marmot is voting for wilgy. But, they're not engaging each other at all.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:58 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:38 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:33 pm And for syn maybe his Eod1 stuff isn't that bad if nobody else seems to think so. Though he'd still not be in my town core. Probably wouldn't want to lynch him today though

Why was syn’s End of Day 1 behavior indicative of a wolf?

Because a tie would let mafia control the lynch and would've thrown the game into further chaos and honeslty this theory is gonna stick for me until wilgy or syn flips.

I mean we're talking a last second swoop that saved wilgy, literally last second he cast his vote at 5 exactly. Right when we were discussing switching to wilgy. If I had switched as planned from cat to wilgy it would've been a 3 way tie which mafia would've picked.

I'd assume they'd do me, then we'd have wasted a phase on someone else.

Do you not agree inserting a vote last second onto another potential wagon and then giving the reasoning of first vote was a joke is a bit bad?

Okay but cat was getting chopped and was town. Why does it matter for the mafia team to force a tie to control that decision?

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 6:01 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:38 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:34 pm I dont like that wilgy has now voted for me two days in a row and never gave any reasoning.

Is this a suspicion?

I'm not sure. I really want it to be syn/wilgy since I want the bragging rights. But, not quite sure that's right or if im tunneling.

Even if wilgy is just being a tunneling/disengaged civ I'm still unhappy about jt nothing I can do to ease his concern since their isnt any

What do you make of Made’s handling of each of them?

I also just don’t buy any part of the argument that syn’s vote was sketchy on any level. If he’s mafia he can do anything at all to avoid putting himself in a situation where he casts a sloppy last-minute tying vote to save his teammate in a convoluted way. Basically, if he’s mafia he is not in that situation to begin with.

Factor in that this argument hinges on both syn and wilgy being partnered, and that I reel there is no credible argument beyond syn’s vote change that points to either of them being wolves individually, and I am even more skeptical. Then you factor in that this was the primary theory pushed by Made yesterday and I am inclined to say that all of the points being raised against both Syn and Wilgy are actually points in favor of them being town.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:10 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:58 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:38 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:33 pm And for syn maybe his Eod1 stuff isn't that bad if nobody else seems to think so. Though he'd still not be in my town core. Probably wouldn't want to lynch him today though

Why was syn’s End of Day 1 behavior indicative of a wolf?

Because a tie would let mafia control the lynch and would've thrown the game into further chaos and honeslty this theory is gonna stick for me until wilgy or syn flips.

I mean we're talking a last second swoop that saved wilgy, literally last second he cast his vote at 5 exactly. Right when we were discussing switching to wilgy. If I had switched as planned from cat to wilgy it would've been a 3 way tie which mafia would've picked.

I'd assume they'd do me, then we'd have wasted a phase on someone else.

Do you not agree inserting a vote last second onto another potential wagon and then giving the reasoning of first vote was a joke is a bit bad?

Okay but cat was getting chopped and was town. Why does it matter for the mafia team to force a tie to control that decision?

The only reason cat was chopped was since I couldn't switch off of them without causing a tie though

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:10 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 6:01 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:38 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:34 pm I dont like that wilgy has now voted for me two days in a row and never gave any reasoning.

Is this a suspicion?

I'm not sure. I really want it to be syn/wilgy since I want the bragging rights. But, not quite sure that's right or if im tunneling.

Even if wilgy is just being a tunneling/disengaged civ I'm still unhappy about jt nothing I can do to ease his concern since their isnt any

What do you make of Made’s handling of each of them?

I think wilgy gets civ points, syn is null

I completely disagree that it isn't scummy. But whatever I don't really wanna put further the effort atm to drive that case when we for sure have one other mafia member.

The argument still seems to be circular. Syn is bad because Wilgy is bad. Wilgy is bad because Syn is bad.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:27 pm The argument still seems to be circular. Syn is bad because Wilgy is bad. Wilgy is bad because Syn is bad.

Yea, but really what's wrong with that? He essentially saved wilgy when we tried to cfd onto him?

I'd be fine putting a pin in that and pursuing someone else though also. but at some point think that needs to be resolved.

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:40 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:27 pm The argument still seems to be circular. Syn is bad because Wilgy is bad. Wilgy is bad because Syn is bad.

Yea, but really what's wrong with that? He essentially saved wilgy when we tried to cfd onto him?

I'd be fine putting a pin in that and pursuing someone else though also. but at some point think that needs to be resolved.

Several things are wrong with it that I’ve already mentioned.

There’s nothing else pointing to either of them being mafia.
If Syn is mafia he’s not likely to be in that position to begin with.
Made pushed hard for this angle all day yesterday.

I think it already is resolved. They’re both town.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:46 pm

sig wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:40 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 7:27 pm The argument still seems to be circular. Syn is bad because Wilgy is bad. Wilgy is bad because Syn is bad.

Yea, but really what's wrong with that? He essentially saved wilgy when we tried to cfd onto him?

I'd be fine putting a pin in that and pursuing someone else though also. but at some point think that needs to be resolved.

Several things are wrong with it that I’ve already mentioned.

There’s nothing else pointing to either of them being mafia.
If Syn is mafia he’s not likely to be in that position to begin with.
Made pushed hard for this angle all day yesterday.

Okay fine,

I'll admit made push was sketchy, believe i said that yesterday before voting made. That does throw a slight lwrench in my theory. But not enough imo to completely clear it.

I just won three catan games in a row.

Samusamu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:33 pm I just won three catan games in a row.

Feliz navidad indeed!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:48 pm

Samusamu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:33 pm I just won three catan games in a row.

Feliz navidad indeed!

Gracias Slooney!

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:48 pm

Samusamu wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:33 pm I just won three catan games in a row.

Feliz navidad indeed!

Same for you!

Samusamu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:06 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:00 pm Interesting, I was coaled Night 1 and Alison dies (who I targeted)

Samu was coaled Night 2 and mew dies (who he targeted)


I wonder if mafia are coaling and gifting the same player every time.

Almost three persons choose alison n1.

[VOTE: Marmot] aubergine

Who is the mafia right now for u? And what do u choose this night?

These two points are what a town have to begin with.

I've not looked back at Made's interactions, nor have I read the thread yet. At this moment before doing that, they are Wilgy and Kyle.