[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think I finally figured out what Doc was trying to convey to me with the whole "why they have in common" and not "what" thing. Was that meant to be a rhetorical point Doc, one that I cannot expound upon publicly but still mull over privately? Is that what you intended of me?

[Strawhenge]

Apparently it takes me 85 hours to form a solid opinion on somebody, so I don't know yet. Let me at least case Choutas, then I'll let you know by Thanksgiving.

[Marmot]

Apparently it takes me 85 hours to form a solid opinion on somebody, so I don't know yet. Let me at least case Choutas, then I'll let you know by Thanksgiving.

Spoiler: show

[Choutas]

Apparently it takes me 85 hours to form a solid opinion on somebody, so I don't know yet. Let me at least case Choutas, then I'll let you know by Thanksgiving.

Straw bet all of your money on my reads and scumspects. All you have to do is believe.

Spoiler: show

JaggedJamieJane who are your top suspects?

[Diiny]

Straw, why didn't you vote MM on day 7? I thought you had a certainty of him that was so certain it can't be discussed legally?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JaggedJamieJane who are your top suspects?

I don't know yet. I'm reassessing the entire thread from a clean slate perspective. I refuse to fall into early bias.

[Strawhenge]

Straw, why didn't you vote MM on day 7? I thought you had a certainty of him that was so certain it can't be discussed legally?

Floyd was more likely to get lynched, simply. No one was listening to me about Marsh, and Floyd was my second choice by a hair.

[Diiny]

By a hair behind MM or in front of 3rd choice (presumably J?)

[Strawhenge]

By a hair behind MM.

[Diiny]

What did you think of my tinfoil theory? :3

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This post is going to be even bigger than the last one. You guys hate me.

[Strawhenge]

I only glanced at it because I'm filming my masterpiece Choutas Episode Two: [title withheld for hype purposes], but it seemed perfectly self-assessed as tinfoily.

I'll look closer at it later, if I'm able.

[Strawhenge]

This post is going to be even bigger than the last one. You guys hate me.

You're the Scorsese to my Nolan. You deliver volume, I deliver formatting.

[Diiny]

Basically:

Order of operations:

Lynch Metalmarsh
Lynch Choutas
Celebrate a town victory

Only two names, m8, and there's three scum unaccounted for.

[Strawhenge]

To be honest, I made that post before getting reinvested in this game. I stopped in and just popped off the first two names who pinged my scumdar the hardest, and put the 'celebrate town victory' thing there to put emphasis on how much I suspected them. I can see how you'd read into that, but there's nothing behind it.

[Diiny]

apparently the inception noise is one of the horn stabs from slowed down a bazillion times in accordance with dreams going super slowly or whatever

[Marmot]

This post is going to be even bigger than the last one. You guys hate me.

To be fair, I've hated you for a while. :P

It would only be fitting if this giant post of yours was your 1,000th post in the game.

[Strawhenge]

apparently the inception noise is one of the horn stabs from slowed down a bazillion times in accordance with dreams going super slowly or whatever

Yeah! I know! Isn't that rad?! #shameless #nolanfanboy

I just watched it again recently and seriously I could watch it any time of any day, just to have it on. I love it and I don't care who knows it or thinks it's bandwagony to like a popular Nolan movie. My love knows no bounds. GAHHHHHHHHH

(imagine that I haven't taken a breath this whole post)

[Marmot]

apparently the inception noise is one of the horn stabs from slowed down a bazillion times in accordance with dreams going super slowly or whatever

Yeah! I know! Isn't that rad?! #shameless #nolanfanboy

I just watched it again recently and seriously I could watch it any time of any day, just to have it on. I love it and I don't care who knows it or thinks it's bandwagony to like a popular Nolan movie. My love knows no bounds. GAHHHHHHHHH

(imagine that I haven't taken a breath this whole post)

Link

[motel room]

What's the thought process behind the bcornett nightkill? It feels like the killers had reversed purposes.

its really hard to catch up and contribute atm. This has been a busy week at work. I am still alive though

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What's the most posts anyone has had in a game here? I hope I get modkilled before I break that record.

[Diiny]

Even if you don't break the record, it should be per word, you've definitely already won on word count.

[Diiny]

apparently the inception noise is one of the horn stabs from slowed down a bazillion times in accordance with dreams going super slowly or whatever

Yeah! I know! Isn't that rad?! #shameless #nolanfanboy

I just watched it again recently and seriously I could watch it any time of any day, just to have it on. I love it and I don't care who knows it or thinks it's bandwagony to like a popular Nolan movie. My love knows no bounds. GAHHHHHHHHH

(imagine that I haven't taken a breath this whole post)

I didn't expect to like it after watching it post [subject]ception becoming the most overused joke of all time but it was actually pretty darn good.

[Marmot]

What's the most posts anyone has had in a game here? I hope I get modkilled before I break that record.

It's actually 1,001. Done by Turnip Head in Death Note, if I'm not mistaken. That game also holds the most overall posts record at 7,840.

[Strawhenge]

I hope I get modkilled before I break that record.

I know this is on ot-green, but...what do you mean by 'modkilled'? Do you mean you have confidence that you won't die in any other manner this game? :U

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hope I get modkilled before I break that record.

I know this is on ot-green, but...what do you mean by 'modkilled'? Do you mean you have confidence that you won't die in any other manner this game? :U

It's Day 10 of a Mafia game and I am alive. Yes, I anticipate long-term survival.

[Diiny]

Uh oh.

I think there's a gif for this. Straw, which gif am I thinking of?

[Marmot]

What's the most posts anyone has had in a game here? I hope I get modkilled before I break that record.

Death Note does hold the record, but to be fair, not only did TH and I spam the thread like crazy because we were both unkillable Shinigami. Also, there were TONS of puzzles to uncover role secrets of the players in that game, so probably close to 1,000 or more of the overall posts were dedicated to just doing Cryptoquips. This game on the other hand, has been pretty on-topic and balls-to-the-wall, and there's still a lot of work to be done.

And go figure, this game and Death Note are both hosted by MovingPictures07

[Golden]

Turnip Head did hit 1000 in the Death Note thread, but I think that was after game end.

Otherwise, you probably have the record.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Uh oh.

I think there's a gif for this. Straw, which gif am I thinking of?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I just hit the wrong key and my screen went all funky and I thought I lost the post. False alarm. I won't kill myself.

[Strawhenge]

Uh oh.

I think there's a gif for this. Straw, which gif am I thinking of?

Um... Hold on. Let me think for a second. Uh...Agh. It's like, right there. Urrrrghhhhh...

...

...

Oh right I got it.

Spoiler: show

[Marmot]

This is a special moment. Do it Jay!

[DrWilgy]

So... I got distracted by my friend playing/streaming zoombinis. Elementary school nostalgia is cool.

I'll be back tomorrow morning ~<3

[motel room]

Uh oh.

I think there's a gif for this. Straw, which gif am I thinking of?

?

[Marmot]

Nah, this is the one.

[Strawhenge]

Choutas

Episode Two: The Beckoning of the Hearkening

oh my god what am i doing with my life Okay, let's get right back into this, shall we?

Spoiler: show

1. Feels less secure about vote on Sorsha when Devin votes for her. ._. Okay, so, like, tinfoiling a little bit (and hoping I'm using that term correctly?), this 'feeling less secure' about his vote feels like it could be Chouscum subtly poising to backpedal from his vote as he sees the bandwagon forming on a townie. He winds up voting for Sorsha that day, so he doesn't completely back out. ★★½

2. 'I find Mac one of the towniest guys in the game. Having strong ties with seaside I'm a good judge of his and he looks incredibly townie to me.' Hey guys, would mind just clicking here for me? Thanks. Not only vouching hard for Mac, but vouching hard for Seaside. I mean oh my god and stuff. This is on top of the fact that he's a) 'second-guessing' a lynch of a townie, and b) throwing shade at somebody for voting for the same person he's voting for. ★★

3. Rainbow list with Mac at the very tippy top, and Black Rock and Floyd in (what I presume to be) neutral black. Wait, really? Floyd? Wasn't he once one of Choutas's scummiest reads? :o ★★½

4. Starts to lose faith in Mac. Some of it is on the heels of Matt's post, which could be seen as piggybacking, but he earlier starts to question what the [censored] Mac was on about. And again, when Mac hilariously tried to shame people for suspecting him, Choutas's response feels fairly genuine. Given that at this point Choutas has not really engaged with Mac very much except for brief commentary and theoretical questions, I'll give this one a slightly-above-average rating. ★★★

4½. lol

5. Is asked point-blank by Jay whether Devin is scum, says...well, nothing. He waffles harder than I did on my birthday four years ago, which you have no context for, but I ate a lot of waffles because I wanted a waffle birthday. So that's why I made the reference. He even says in-post that he had him pegged as scum two days in a row. Why waffle when Jay asks? ★★½

6. ._. At the risk of seeming very latently omgusy, why did I go from top-tier town read to 'scum of the earth' that the SK should kill? Oh, right; he's demented. ★★½

7. Prompted by Mac to case Epi, Choutas gives some non-reasons and a couple points of pure conjecture. Read: WIFOM. ★★½

8. Gets on Floyd for Floydwaffling. That's a term now. Floydwaffling. I don't know what it means, and neither should you. But anyway, this seems like Choutas genuinely suspecting Floyd and by association suspecting Mac. If Choutas is scum, this is either some very luckily circuitous bullshit, or needlessly elaborate. ★★★

9. Rainbow list with Mac in top-tier, and Black Rock and Floyd in almost-scum orange. His scum reads are sig and fingerllama. Interesting, but nothing much to gain here that hasn't been surmised in previous Brilliant Points. ★★½

10. Ein kleine omgus intermezzo. So JJJ thinks you're scum in a GTH read, which doesn't come with explanations and is a binary system, he's suddenly dropped from town to neutral? That's weird. ★★½

11. Despite his rainbow list in Brilliant Point #9, Choutas specifically names Wilgy and Diiny as people he'd be okay with lynching, and they're in his yellow category. He mentions these two above everyone in his red and orange categories. Wha? ★★½

12. Hashtags a rescue effort for Mac. As has been profusely noted, I was highly suspicious of everyone trying to save Mac's life—mainly Jay and mokiji aoroom. Choutas's reaction to the pressure on me was to just vote for whoever I decide and not to let others pressure me. He takes the backseat on the whole ordeal, while still advocating for #savemac. Tinfoiling a bit (seriously am I using that term correctly?), Choutas could very well have been a scumbuddy actively trying to save Mac while steering away from the insanely scummy activity of trying to force a townie onto a bad lynch. ★★½ bordering on ★★

13. Rainbow list with Black Rock in orange and Floyd, Choutas's vote that day, at the bottom of the red category. I feel like Black Rock has bounced up and down in Choutas's rainbow lists but Choutas hasn't said anything about them. ._. And by this point, as was pointed out by Diiny in current posts, even I burrowed out of my Metalmarsh tunnel to vote for Floyd. Floyd's scumminess was so dang evident that Choutas voting for him at this point means nothing vis-á-vis his alignment. My main point, though, is that if Choutas is scum, he has just watched his scumbuddy Mac get viciously lynched—and his first action the next day is to bus a scummate. If he's scum, he's trying to make himself look good as his team falls apart. Lynch Floyd, put Black Rock low in the list to set the stage for a further bus. ★★

14. Diiny asks him why he waffled on Mac and Choutas's response is to be all, 'What are you talking about?' ._. ★★½

15. ??? I completely missed this. Probably while wallowing somewhere out here in the cold real world. Uh, what? What? Also, if I got in trouble for semi-infodumping and Choutas didn't, ooohhhhhhhh boiiiiiii. Anyway, infodumping aside, this very well could've been genuine, but could also have been a scum professing that someone is town because he's scum and he knows Seaside is town. (Granted someone could make the same claim about me and my brush with infodumping, but still. Just bringing it up.) But I must be blind because I don't see an investigative role in the role post. Help me if I've missed it. ★★

16. Uh... ... You... I— ...Wait. Hold o— These posts are the worst. The worst, Choutas! They just feel like an overconfident scum. I don't like it one bit. ★½

17. This is a really excellent vintage of WIFOM, with scummy notes. It has really reached a terrific age and—yeah I know jack shit about wine. Anyway, commenting on one's meta and saying, 'This is something I'd never do. I mean, yeah, I could change my M.O., but I wouldn't.' He does it again here, and it makes me like it even less. ಠ_ಠ ★½

In this second and final installment, Choutas looks considerably worse. Main points: possible bussing of teammates coupled with insisting that doing such a thing is not in his meta, and staying out of the firefight.

Overall Rating: most influenced by recent post-scum-lynch behavior, ★½

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Reassessment of Russtifinko:

Dusk 0 votes: None

Spoiler: show

Posting because the host tells me I will be a non-participant if I don't.

I will read up throughout today and try to say something intelligent.

Ok, I haven't read everything, but I have read most things, and I am committed to playing this friggin' sweet game with you awesome people. Since the poll is about to end, I'm posting what thoughts I do have and then voting.

Please expect me to be more involved in future days.

Russ started the game from a position of detachment. I don't believe he ever described what caused this. Russ: what caused your late arrival and slow introduction into the game?

Spoiler: show

As I catch up, I'm starting to get used to how often this community straight up asks out of the blue "are you bad?" to other players for little to no reason. Maybe it's a useful tactic here but in my experience it only does any good for the mafia. For example, I didn't like the look of this:

I accidentally implied I was civilian.

But you're not, right?

How can you accidentally imply you are civilian? Isn't that like the most basic claim used in mafia history, at the beginning and throughout the games?

Here, lemme make you imply some more: Are you bad?

To me it's so obvious that mm was joking that it seems opportunistic to call him out for this, but if it's a community thing, feel free to shoot me down.

I like Zebra! Seems like a heckuva player for Day 1. I also agree that it seemed super obvious MM was joking. It seems on reading Rico's posts that he is playing a joking style as well, so maybe he was bantering back, but this post in particular read pretty serious to me. And maybe he really didn't get the joke, but I think Rico is plenty smart to get it and was trying to throw shade.

Russ expresses distinct suspicion of Rico relatively early on Day 1. The highlighted portion is critical in a way that is alignment-relevant, so Russ has to take ownership of this read -- asserting that Rico was "trying to throw shade" cannot be interpreted any other way in my opinion. On one hand I think Rico's post could validly be called an overstep in response to MM's joke. On another hand, I think Russ's language here is a little buggy on the surface and it tweaks me. I honestly don't know how to describe it, so call it gut. If you ask me to expand I'll try.

Spoiler: show

I do think it's suspicious that Epi deliberately misinterpreted this point. At least, it looked like he did to me. I mean, I get why - no one wants to be suspected on Day 1. But he wrote a pretty impactful-looking response that really didn't address the point against him.

Epi didn't like this one as he made clear repeatedly during his lifespan. I can agree at least that the word "deliberately" stands out in this statement because it pushes Russ's assertion of a misinterpretation beyond the confines of that word. A misinterpretation cannot be deliberate, otherwise it is a misrepresentation. It may seem like a small point, but I think small language quirks like this might become thematic in this review so I'll make note of it.

Spoiler: show

Linki: Damn, that Matt F vote though. And it being the 3rd one looks really bad, since 3 votes is about the threshold where the top candidates are. 3 of the next 5 votes went to BWT after. Matt F may not know, but as some have already pointed out, BWT always looks suspicious, pretty much without fail. Even without that it looks bad.

This is a strong accusation against Matt for what strikes me as a rather arbitrary reason. Matt placed the 3rd vote on BWT, which is supposed to be inherently more suspicious than the 4th or 5th or whateverth vote. This is a very direct line of focus upon a player without the logical foundation to justify that, in my opinion.

Spoiler: show

No. Syntax.

"I do think it's suspicious that Epi deliberately misinterpreted this point."

The predicate here indicates a posteriori knowledge that I was being deceptive. That you add a phrase that does more than qualify (it negates what you imply) looks even worse to me.

If you think I'm a liar, come out and call me a liar. Don't use weasel words and say you're gonna read me tomorrow.

It does qualify my statement, as opposed to negating. Regardless...

I read you today. I said I'd pursue you tomorrow. For someone so concerned with "weasel words", you don't seem to mind using them against me much.

Linki: I am at quarter-end in a finance job I started less than a month ago, so I'm very busy learning the ropes and doing quarter-end-ish things. In case I forgot to say before.

Double linki: Yes. Encouraged by some, viewed as risky by others.

More from the discussion with Epi regarding the "deliberate" misinterpretation. The language Russ employs here again pings me. It's like he's trying to meet Epi's assault head-on with equal strength, and that is an awkward look. This is not how Russ has interacted with others in the thread.

Day 1 vote: Matt F (2nd of 2)

There's supporting material to explain this vote, but I still find it a bit dubious. This vote was mostly off-wagon (just him and Roxy), so its impact was minimal. Moreover, his justification for this vote was the timing/placement of Matt's vote -- on the very same day. To be this critical of another person's vote for a player who had not been lynched yet is hard to understand. For all any townies knew at that point, BWT would flip mafia and Matt's vote would be a solid look. Russ made up his mind prematurely.

Spoiler: show

Some have been pinged by me voting third for bwt. I've played about two dozen games of mafia, and I don't ever remember this being a thing. I haven't played for about two years, though, so maybe it's something new? Either way, all I can is circumstance. I had to go to work, I wanted to vote early in case I didn't make it home in time (I didn't, btw), and BWT was my strongest feeling at the time.

Again, RIP birds.

Matt, for me it wasn't that you voted third for BWT per se. The main thing that got me was that you voted him without ever having mentioned him before, and for a weak reason. (He changed his D0 vote before other people had voted.)

The thing that pinged me about the timing of your vote is secondary to the point above. That looked bad to me because a third vote at the time put BWT above Diiny and tied him with sig for top vote-getter, and then he took 3 of the next 5 votes. So your vote was a big deal at the time, and it appears to have sparked off a run of BWT votes.

Russ expands on his criticism of Matt for his Day 1 BWT vote. My doubts as stated for Russ's Day 1 vote remain. Russ seemed to criticize Matt for making a key vote in the lynch of a townie before anyone should have known he was a townie.

Spoiler: show

Matt, for me it wasn't that you voted third for BWT per se. The main thing that got me was that you voted him without ever having mentioned him before, and for a weak reason. (He changed his D0 vote before other people had voted.)

The thing that pinged me about the timing of your vote is secondary to the point above. That looked bad to me because a third vote at the time put BWT above Diiny and tied him with sig for top vote-getter, and then he took 3 of the next 5 votes. So your vote was a big deal at the time, and it appears to have sparked off a run of BWT votes.

RussT, you're correct. I had not mentioned him before, and for that, I'm sorry. I should've made it known right away about my ping on BWT, but I didn't.

Let me ask you, why is it a weak reason? The Dusk 0 poll decided who the CEO's were going to be, and IMO, the mafia would want at least one CEO on their team. Don't you think? Then for BWT to come in and say "Let's make it interesting ", then end the vote before everyone has a chance to vote (and let's remember he SWITCHED his vote)...it did not sit right with me. Even knowing he is civvie now, it still doesn't sit right. I truly wish he had not done that, because I wouldn't have voted for him had he not.

RBZ - Opportunistic? I think not. I asked you guys a question, and then I refused to even vote for you until you answered. You didn't point this out in your reread, but Sorsha (thankfully while Roxy was NoUing me) let me know what was up in regards to my ping, and that was that.

Thanks! That actually makes me feel a bit better.

Having not been around for Day 0, I didn't see BWT's move there in real time. That could play a role in why I wasn't convinced he was bad, although the major point for me was just that I've played with him a lot, and he always seems bad except when he is bad. Point being, I suppose I can see where you were coming from. I still don't think your vote timing or reasoning at the time were great, so I'll be eyeing you. Thanks for the response.

I've been seeing a lot of this highlighted stuff from Russ throughout the game. He states serious suspicions, fields a conversation, and then seems to retract his case easily. I don't know that Matt really had to do very much to make Russ feel better about this, and that makes me question the sincerity of Russ's read on Matt in the first place. I'm going to try to make note of incidents like this as I proceed: I'll mark them in Forgiving Fuschia.

Spoiler: show

I wasn't convinced by JJJ's single read on Long Con. The Llama Gambit (saying you're suspicious of someone you're not to see who bandwagons it) is a fairly common Syndicate ploy. But this analysis by Matt F might have some merit. The posts you're highlighting show Sorsha acting how I'd imagine myself acting if I were on a baddie team with LC. Sorsha, you say you and LC have been playing together for years, but what made it obvious to you that LC's suspicion of bea was a ploy if you think she's the last person he'd use to pull a ploy?
LC, what are your thoughts on Sorsha at the moment?

Russ turned away my critiques of Long Con's proposed gambit with his bea case, suggesting it's a commonplace ploy on The Syndicate (I've not seen it yet, but maybe). This rejection of my beefs with LC did not quite address the actual points I was making and instead relied on the strength of a blanket assessment of The Syndicate meta.

Spoiler: show

Yep, it was Zebra.

I'm back (overslept, just a reason, not an excuse), catching up right now. RIP bwt, with seven votes I'm willing to bet that at least two of them are baddies.

I think Epi singled out the seven of us to. He did make posts on a couple of us but I don't remember which ones. (and I'm getting ready for work right now so I don't have time to check myself)

It's one thing to focus your attention on each of the players that voted on a civilian lynch-wagon.

It's another thing to say that 2 of the 7 voters are probably bad, and to try to fit two players into that statement.

I disagree with the language here strongly. Epi didn't single out each of those 7 players. He actually discussed 2 of the votes. I'll admit it's better that just saying 2 names like seaside did, but not much better.

This looks a lot like an attempt to make seaside look worse an Epi look better than they should.

I will say I just noticed that Zebra and seaside both said 2 players from the lynch should be bad. Epi singled out 2. In a standard mafia party game there'd be 2 baddies and 7 civs. Probably coincidence imo, just think it's worth mentioning.

Linki: I don't have Floyd as bad, but I certainly don't have him as good either. I'm giving people with strong reads on him the side-eye. How could you possibly know without info?

Marsh was questioning the specificity of some reads made by Zebra and seaside, and Russ stepped in to critique MM himself on his reception of the posts. Russ generates a number of links here incluing Epignosis to MM, which does not seem to follow from MM's commentary. Epi was nowhere in it, so I don't know why that's relevant here. Russ and Epi were adversarial at this point in the game and this seems like a concerted effort to throw shade at him even from the outfield. Some questions:

Yellow: You've supplied a caveat to negate this comment, so why did you feel it was worth mentioning?

Orange: I think I may have graded this mildly positively in my Floyd interaction analyses, but I don't feel inspired there now. I think this is a very easy statement to make about Floyd regardless of alignment, so it ought to be null instead.

Spoiler: show

RIP to our departed friends.

I had a Hell Day at work and am keeping it light tonight, since reading hurts my head.

LC, what are your thoughts on Sorsha at the moment?

Nothing too pingy at the moment. Sorsha's not always the easiest to read, but I haven't found her particularly suspicious yet.

Well this is waffly.

Gives Long Con a little stink eye on Day 2 for a vague read on Sorsha.

Spoiler: show

Voting Seaside until he explains his numerous arbitrary reads to satisfaction.

Your view of Seaside is right and I agree with it it's just that he told me before the game starts that he'll try his best to get lynched early in order to have more free time. It might sound ridiculous but I know Seaside and he's frankly ridiculous. On the other hand if he stops playing midway he'll be a problem to the mods and us.

It's a lose-lose situation to me.

This strikes me as BTSC. And also puts the whole thread in a rough spot regarding him. Why sign up if you don't want to play? Now we have an impossible choice: lynch someone we have no useful intel on whatsoever and risk wasting a day we could be doing useful analysis to get baddies, or don't lynch him and let a non-participant potential baddie skate until endgame.

Why does "he told me before the game starts..." strike you as BTSC?

Spoiler: show

So are you suggesting that at least one of the two poll winners must be scum? If so, which one? And why not push harder for their lynch? 50% odds is damn good at this stage of the game.

Response to Choutas about the Dusk 0 poll winners. I know at least one of those two is town (hi) so this makes me grimace.

Spoiler: show

Ugh, I'm on time to vote but feel like I may be late to the party. This was a very good point.

How is it, that not one regular syndicater voted for LC? How is it, that none of the Rym players don't take that into consideration? Are we missing something here?

I should say that I have suspected LC as recently as my last post, though, and I'm a Syndicater, so it's not 100% true. Everyone seems to have ignored my posts, though, as I don't think anyone answered a question I asked...

Anyway, the fact that no other TSers are suspecting LC makes me feel a bit better about him. However, I have absolutely no read whatsoever on bcornett, and I think voting seaside or Macdougall at this point seems like a real bad idea. So I don't see a ton of opportunity to influence the lynch with my vote.

Also, I know Golden is a SuperStar Civ, but it's weird to me that at least 2 people (bea and motel room) are willing to just accept his suspicion at face value and go that way.

Russ supports an assertion made by FZ that the RYM presence on the Long Con bandwagon of Day 2 might be misguided, but also states his own suspicion of LC and laments his ability or inability to influence the lynch with his vote. It's also of note that he calls a lynch of seaside or MacDougall a "real bad idea". Why did you think so, Russ?

Spoiler: show

Also, I am on board with seaside sticking around after his big post. I was also reading Macdougall as genuine in that exchange and won't be voting for either of them today unless they literally post a screenshot of baddie BTSC.

I should probably read the next ISO post before asking that question. Okay. This is a strong defense of both seaside and MacDougall that I honestly had not observed prior.

Spoiler: show

I voted for you and am suspicious of you is a bit more than a No u. That characterization seems to try to make my suspicion into fluff which it is not.

You start out with your bogus claim that RBZ and I had btsc or communicated by PM and that my post saying "Keterman is RBZMNGHJ??" was fake - which if you had actually read the post from which you quoted this "suspicion" would have never happened. The fact that it did happen and that you pushed it (but not hard enough to vote for) is highly suspicious to me.

Then you move onto Teeth - which my vote was NOT based that you were the third voter moine was bc you had pushed me and RBZ then suddenly without so much as have an apple you jump on the Teeth wagon. With your bogus reasoning about the day 0 poll.

You keep saying that he ended the vote when he moved his vote is something I am not grasping please elaborate. Are you saying Teeth personally picked the winner of the Day 0 poll and told MP and Sloon to end the Day 0 bc he had chosen the winner? BC that is what it reads like.
You do realize Teeth was civ right?

When you made your sudden turn onto Teeth you slammed your suspicion down and voted without bothering to wait for a response, which is weird bc you said you did not want to vote for RBZ or me until hearing from him - so why does RBZ have a chance to respond but you give Teeth no window of opportunity to respond? Double standard much?

I see you keep harping on the Day 0 poll crap and tbh it has already led to a civ lynch are you really srsly going to keep going down your bogus path? So much else has happened yet you still hold onto your Day 0 suspicions like they are your last breath. I find it odd.

Yep I am this far behind I read some last night and fell asleep will be on it today.

Roxy, I am probably the most suspicious of Matt F besides you. I say this in the most friendly possible way, so please don't take it wrong, but this reads a little like Roxy tunneling to me.

I missed Day 0, so someone please correct me when I am wrong, but my understanding is this: the Day 0 poll worked such that when 2 players had 5 votes each, it ended immediately and they won. So in essence, yeah, BWT basically chose the winners and told our hosts to end the poll. Again, I could be wrong there, but if my understanding is right I still actually find that part of Matt's suspicion very reasonable.

That said, I still think the timing on his vote was suspicious. As I'm writing this I'm finding that I'm convincing myself more and more that he might not be bad, though. Reading back, he's shown me absolutely nothing today as far as meaningful contributions, but the more I read over early game stuff, the more genuine I see him.

Russ engages Roxy on the matter of Matt F as a suspect. These two were Matt's only real opposition early in the game to my knowledge. Russ saw fit to qualify Roxy's stated suspicions as potentially "tunneling" against Matt, but also maintained his original stated suspicion -- Matt's Day 1 BWT vote. Russ waffled on this point though, asserting that further reviews of Matt were leaving him feeling better about his Day 1 despite "absolutely nothing" on Day 2. This covers a lot of ground in terms of reading one guy.

Spoiler: show

To clarify, I think Sorsha's most recent post is trying to get motel room to switch back to LC. It's suspicious to me since she just voted bcornett. Why promote lynching a major candidate that you yourself won't vote for? If she were to get motel room to vote LC, and LC flips civ, she could sit back and laugh and let motel take the heat for it.

Linki: Wait, so are you trying to convince motel room NOT to switch back to LC? Now I'm confused.

What?! I'm trying to get players to NOT vote for LC.

I'm just sus of why motel is moving his vote around like he is.

Aha. I took that completely the wrong way, then.

Well in that case I dunno who to vote. I still suspect Epi and Matt F but don't see either being lynched today.

Russ laments again about his voting options. He reiterates his older suspicions of Epi and Matt F but doesn't see them as likely lynches. This is a significant statement on the heels of his discussion with Roxy: he has a read on Matt that justifies pursuing his lynch, and that is a little hard to reconcile with the things he said to Roxy soon before.

Spoiler: show

You suspecting my suspects and Matt F suspecting you makes this really hard, but it does make me feel like at least one of the three of you is lying.

Again, Russ, is there anything you'd like to ask me? I am not afraid of any questions as I have nothing to hide. Ask away.

Also, as with Roxy, I believe Sorsha only started suspecting me once I became suspicious of her and Eloh. In fact, I believe you are one of the few people to suspect me without NOU. And again, if you have any questions, ask away.

Linki JJJ - Thanks

@Rus

Same reason I'm obviously town. Supatowning. It doesn't have to be agreed upon, as long as there is content, and that content appears genuine.

Thanks Matt. You're quickly dropping off my radar with your willingness to be open and with Zebra's support.

To Zebra, if you have anything you want me to address, I'm happy to. You seem to think I'm bad, but I don't completely understand why.

I will be in Boston from tomorrow through Monday midmorning. I will also be at a party Sunday night. I'll try to be as active as possible during my trip, but given the timing it's unlikely I'll be a major contributor during the late stages of the lynch. I apologize in advance for the inconvenience.

Forgiving Fuschia.

Spoiler: show

I may switch to Long Con. I only suspect him very mildly, but I don't want to risk a very late tie.

The Heart of the ISO. I'll talk more about The Long Con Vote Heard 'Round the World soon.

Actually no I won't have to wait. That's his last post of Day 2.

Day 2 vote: Long Con (8th of 8)

This single point probably makes or breaks the analysis. Did Russ make a world-saving vote here to prevent the bcornett lynch and ensure the demise of evil LC? If you think so, period, then I guess he should be a non-mafia read. I was content to rest on this perspective for most of the game, and admittedly it prevented me from looking more closely at Russ for a long time while I focused on other names.

I don't think this is the Greatest Vote in the World anymore. The suspect pool has dwindled enough that old points must be reassessed on level terms, and when I ask myself if a mafia Russ can make this vote I find myself answering "well, sure he can" without much hesitation. Even if this was The Vote that secured the lynch (DrWilgy's math suggests as much at least), it's a great credit grab. LC's role made him vulnerable to eventual exposure by default, and he was a suspect of many vocal players early in the game. His days were likely numbered. Add in the theories other players have presented about the death of LC being in part a devised plot by the mafia team to gain credibility (a theory I didn't like at the time but must now acknowledge as viable), and this vote loses its luster.

There isn't much content in Russ's posts to suggest LC suspicion other than the one eyeball emoticon relative to LC's waffling on Sorsha. That means this vote must be judged entirely by Russ's claim that it was meant to avoid a tie with bcornett24 (who he hadn't discussed). I think there is enough evidence in this thread now that LC's lynch was motivated in part by his own team mates that I don't think I can justify giving Russ immense town cred for this.

In any event, your read on Russ should account for this vote in one way or another. If you suspect him or you trust him and this vote isn't somewhere in your explanation, then you're wrong.

Spoiler: show

What'd I say? Being accused by Epi is a death knell. Rico's leading in votes and I'm tied for second. He's playing you guys.


I had even less time than I hoped today, and I hoped for relatively little. Voting Sorsha based on previous pings, the way yesterday went down vote-wise, and because she has enough votes that it could actually matter.

Russ's only post on Day 3. He continued pushing his distrust of Epi.

Day 3 vote: Sorsha

Spoiler: show

Oh geez, the lynch time moved up. Thought I had until midnight. I've been on Sorsha since Day 2, seems silly not to vote her when she might actually be lynched.

Voting now so I don't miss, posting after. (It might be mega.) Sorsha.

Linki: espers agrees with me? Of all people?

Arrives late on Day 4 as well. Same vote.

Spoiler: show

So before my recent catch-up read I was with JJJ in thinking Macdougall looked to be one of towniest aroundiest. After today I'm not so sure, though...

*snip*

And finally, this post sounds like baddie bitter about Golden being outed.

Something about Sorshas posts just read genuine to me. I'll be surprised if she flips bad.

I uninured agree. I unwarmed don't me in charge buddy! be very surprised.

I agree with golden. He is the best townie in the world after all.

I feel pretty darn bad about Mac now. Probably too late for today, but very worth a look tomorrow.

Here is an aggressive turn of perspective by Russ against MacDougall on Day 4. He drops his town read and goes right to the bad read, probably in light of Mac going into "chaos mode". I think this might be the best looking point in Russ's favor I've seen so far, simply because he took it upon himself to totally reverse his read from one extreme to the other. If he's Mac's team mate, I think it's difficult to convey this conviction. Still, it should be noted that Mac was unlikely to be lynched during this phase, and the general climate of the thread turned hard against him here especially from members of The Syndicate. I can also see a mafia Russ seeing the need to nip a bad situation in the bud while his team mate was still probably going to get through it. Overall I'll call this moment a slight positive for Russ.

Soon after he engages me with some questions about Mac's behavior. This is another decent look just for the sake of Russ appearing genuine in his examination of both Mac and me. Still, it isn't hard to identify a mafia angle here either: Russ could be preparing me, Mac's loudest defender, for the repercussions of my incorrect read (becoming an enemy to most people in the thread upon Mac's eventual flip).

Day 4 vote: Sorsha (10th of 10)

Give Russ credit for casting another important vote to decide a lynch result. The counterwagon was Devin, so either way the results were going to be bad for town. Russ did wait a long time to influence the tally though and that has become a trend. He's been more careful with his vote than most other people have been in a game with vote changes.

Spoiler: show

Before anyone else mentions it, yes, I've voted to lynch a civvie four days in a row now.

Sorry town

It's not so much that you've voted for 4 civvies in 4 days that bothers me, personally. I don't really love that everyone you've voted for is dead, but it is still only 2 people so it's not totally damning yet.

I think your Mac theory is completely cockamamie, and I HATE cockamamie theories, as Syndicate players know. However, I think a baddie you would be foolish to pursue it so forcefully and for so long (over 5 pages). I finished reading that exchange and found myself leaning more civ on you than before.

Also, for the record, I don't know Roxy the best, but all her posts have read absolutely classic Roxy to me. The devil-may-care, I-play-my-game-and-no-one-can-stop-me attitude, the tunneling on Matt F, and just general tone seem normal to me.

I suppose I get fingersplints defending her, but as far as I can recall, defending her is literally the only thing fingers has done all game. That looks increasingly shady to me as interesting things happen in thread.

On Night 4 Russ engages Matt again. His language in the highlighted sentence seems to imply that suspicion exists even if not for the reasons Matt might expect (4 votes in mislynch wagons). Despite this, Russ grants that Matt's hard pursuit of his Mac/SK theory would be dangerous mafia behavior -- it will be interesting to follow the progression of his Matt read from this point.

He also throws in a defense for Roxy and a little shade at fingersplints.

Spoiler: show

Responses to things JJJ has said:

Thank you for dedicating a whole multi-quote post to me. Here's one for you.

Spoiler: show

On the Mac thing, I don't know where I stand anymore. At the end of Day 4 and beginning of last night I thought he looked the baddest of the bad. You sticking up for him gives me major pause, though. I don't buy Matt's theory at all, and the content Mac posted during the exchange makes me less suspicious of him. However, Choutas does have a point that he seemed real flustered by it. He was definitely chaos posting, but I can't tell whether it was for fun or a smokescreen to hide baddie frustration. And all of this after I had a strong civ read on him going into yesterday. I'd say at this point my logical side says probably civ for Mac, but my gut is churning and would say bad.

Russ talks more about his perspective of MacDougall (he prompted this discussion with me). On one hand, I like that Russ seems to be exploring both sides of the Mac issue and is expressing proper uncertainty as should be reflected in a town perspective. On the other hand, I'm troubled that he was willing to assign his doubts about Mac as a baddie read largely to my defense of Mac. Russ has passed on responsibility for his conviction to me.

Spoiler: show

I must say I am increasingly suspicious of Black Rock, and I'll tell you why.

Her husband got lynched and was bad, yet she's missing votes and coming in here talking about Roxy being the serial killer. She lives with LC. She has heard him speak in real life all the time, knows his tone, has witnessed his ruses, and should have a solidi(ish) view of what he would do or would not. I'm just seeing no effort on that front, and if Black Rock is civilian, then I think her involvement would be more valuable than it is.

Linki: Epi, are you saying you think a civvie BR would be able to piece together who a baddie LC's teammates were based on reading his posts and interacting with him irl?

Russ sees fit to squeeze in a linki at Epi with regards to one of his earlier stated suspicions of Black Rock. This language in this linki is a little bit pingy again, because it seems to just restate the point as a question.

Epi: Black Rock as a civilian would probably have better insights about the behaviors of her mafia husband Long Con.

Russ: Are you saying Black Rock as a civilian would probably have better insights about the behaviors of her mafia husband Long Con?

This is productive communication training for estranged spouses, but I'm not sure it takes us anywhere in a Mafia game. Epi answered his question though.

Spoiler: show

For now I'm throwing a vote on espers. As someone else pointed out, he's basically like recent Diiny, except all game, and he's been after me for no reason, which I don't like. I would not be opposed to lynching him, but I think it's unlikely for today. I probably will switch before Day's end. Possibly to Mac, who I'm thinking about a lot, or maybe to Epi or fingers.

Oh! And before I forget, to Metalmarsh: I can show you the text I got from MP, timestamped, if you want and I'm allowed. Why would I bother making up that MP contacted me instead of just saying "sorry I'm late, guys" and leaving it at that, if I really rejoined because of baddie BTSC?

Linki: Yeah, that's fair. Is that really all she's done? I'll have to read her back. As you've said in previous games, overaggressively pursuing serial killers is often a baddie tactic.

Russ takes to the case against espers as stated by others and places his vote accordingly on Day 5. The linki is a return to the prior conversation with Epi -- Russ is incredulous about BR's content to that point as reported by Epi and pledges to read her back over.

Day 5 vote: espers (1st of 8)

Here's a break from Russ's late vote trend. While one can't accuse him of bandwagoning here as the first final vote, it can be said that his vote was not supported by very much personal contribution to that case.

Spoiler: show

RIP Devin.

espers....Avoids being modkilled by checking in, only to say that he doesn't care about the game and wants to be out anyway (and that's not counting his punishment of saying "I deserve to die". Probably forces us to use another lynch to get him, Super lame, and probably a baddie indicator.

This is a moment for a Strawhenge sirengif.

Spoiler: show

Perhaps the reasons why the civvies keep losing is because they keep listening to the same leaders. Perhaps they should try following someone else for a change.

I'm a bit surprised Russ doesn't remember something that happened in his games, especially since I feel it was kind of important. I remember exact specifics of all my game. Like my first contest I ever hosted in 2011 was won by manu for a poem titled "my life as a princess" :lol: idk maybe he really doesn't remember, but maybe he doesn't want to see how similar my game is to there. Idk just thinking. He seems kinda rational about his thoughts so he is on my undecided list for now.

Really? I remember basically nothing about game I've played previously, unless someone jogs my memory. And I confess to only skimming the thread in Economics.

I think you're throwing shade here because I asked you for some input other than "Roxy is good, BR is bad", and you don't want to give it. However, since you are so confident in your BR read, I'll at least read her back and see what I come up with. I haven't read JJJ's iso on her yet, so I'll check to see if my read matches his.

Linki: Can't tell if Mac is serious...like, ever. If you really feel bullied, I'm sorry. I've found you fun to have in thread for the most part so far.

Also, I'm not touching the Elo/Mac thing for a bit. It's becoming reminiscent of Roxy/MattF, and I don't do drama.

Again Russ acknowledges someone else's suspicion of Black Rock (fingersplints's and mine) and pledges to review her content. We'll see what turns up.

The linki material is mildly interesting. This is an emotion-driven response to/treatment of MacDougall. This is something that can be read at face value and affect gut reads about whether Russ and Mac are compatible team mates. I am not inclined to think it evidences incompatibility mostly because I don't know Russ well enough to make that call. Maybe one of you does.

Spoiler: show

I think Floyd needs to be looked at pronto. This deal with him "being gone" for several days after being suspected and saying some very odd things...I don't like it.

If he's gone for 3-4 days, won't he just be modkilled for inactivity anyway?

Not ideal to rely on a modkill (which never came) to deal with a suspect.

The awaited read-over of Black Rock's content

Russ review's Black Rock's posts and states his perspectives. He in so many words grants that she doesn't look good, so we can give Russ credit for at least being suspicious of LC, Mac, and BR at some point in this post history. An important caveat here is that Russ concludes all three within the perceived fingersplints/Roxy/Black Rock triumvirate looked "unhelpful", so he did spread his shade over all of them.

Spoiler: show

Yeah, it looks like my read on BR converges somewhat with JJJ's. Thanks for pointing out her role in Devin's death; I hadn't thought much about it though it's obvious in hindsight.

I do think making reads and then backing off by saying she made them to get people in thread is suspicious at best, utter BS at worst.

He lent his support to my case, specifically the point that I thought was the most convincing for her being a mafioso.

Due to time constraints, I am going to be more discriminating about which posts I comment on starting here. Rejoice.

Spoiler: show

It's probably confirmation bias, but I like this point, Matt. I am completely down for either a Mac or BR lynch today.

Placeholder on BR for now. Could be convinced to go with Mac today, or, to a lesser extent, Epi.

States his support for a lynch of two confirmed mafia on Day 6. This is another important post and it might be enough that suspicion of his mafia interactions might drift into tinfoil territory. Places a vote on BR. He later stated that he'd slightly prefer a BR lynch over a Mac lynch but still seemed open to both options. That's a good look. If there's a caveat here to quell that, it's that by this point BR was in the modkill zone and was likely gone anyway. This would be inconsistent with Russ's perspective of Floyd earlier.

Spoiler: show

Well, I've convinced myself (with some help from Mac's behavior)....Mac

He ends on the lynching wagon of MacDougall.

Day 6 vote: MacDougall (7th of 7)

It's another late vote, but it also came in a heavy pressure scenario where the only viable counterwagon was Diiny (6-3 lead for Mac over Diiny at that point). There is some potential for a bus job, because I'm not sure anyone expected quite the late push for Diiny that ended up happening save for the people who drove that push (primarily motel room and I). The Mac vote was the safest is Russ is his team mate, but that doesn't mean he must be his team mate.

Spoiler: show

I'm happy to see JJJ lynched to remove the doubt but I think he did the same thing I did w/r/t mac.

I actually feel like JJJ and Floyd will flip town.

Please esplain.

Which part? I wont be surprised if they were both town, but I'm not sold so hard as to defend them and they are both potential distractions now at this point and if not lynched now will probably ride on as lynch contenders until the end of the game is all.

To be more precise: esplain the part where you think JJJ will flip town, but you're happy to remove the doubt by lynching him. I recall Mac saying something very similar, I think about Sorsha. (Would quote, but have you seen that dude's post history?)

I actually wouldn't be opposed to a seaside lynch if there's time - dude's been acting weird since D1. However, motel room voted for him, and motel room just took a big jump up my suspect list.

I'd definitely be down to try to pull votes onto motel room.

I didn't see anything in Floyd's history that makes me really want him dead. I think the scum slip theories are overblown, and beyond that there's just not much there.

motel room for now. Come join! It's a nice big room, and we have free HBO and a continental breakfast.

Day 7 for Russ is mostly a matter of calling out motel room and pursuing his lynch. He wasn't pleased with motel room's place in the Day 6 lynch, and his treatment of me as a "lynchable town read". He does dissuade a TheFloyd73 lynch and expresses doubts about the scumslips accusations. He is a little quicker to accept suspicion of seaside than I'd have expected. He hadn't talked about him much to this point.

Supports Epi's move against seaside, particularly in light of Choutas's strange rainbow list inconsistency, and moves his vote there.

Day 7 vote: seaside

Like I said: it's not supported thoroughly in his content prior. He took to Epi's case willfully and that's about all there is to say about it (6th of 8). The counterwagons were TheFloyd73 and me.

~~~

His content has been pretty consistent since then. He has voted for motel room on Day 8 and 9 and seems dead set on pursuing that lynch.

~~~

Conclusion / TL;DR:

I think Russ looked suspicious at face value pretty often early in the game. The ways he chose to word things, and the angles he took to cast suspicion upon people -- they consistently ping me in his content up to about Day 4. At that point he starts to move against Mac and then BR soon after, all after having placed a decisive lynching vote on Long Con. If he is mafia then he has made very strategically timed moves to create distance. I don't think he has always seemed sincere, and if I just base my overall read on the eyeball test then I think Russ looks pretty bad. If I account for the evidence at hand I struggle to justify that gut read though. It could be that the surface pings are reflective of something real in his motivations, but that doesn't have to mean he's mafia.

Is this guy mafia-aligned? Average likelihood

Is this guy the serial killer? Slightly more likely than average

[Strawhenge]

Strawhenge updated his list: Who I Think Is Scum: A Rainbow List

Who I Think Is Scum: A Rainbow List

[List83991827] +876

Strawhenge ★★★★★

Diiny ★★★
Russtifinko ★★★
JaggedJimmyJay ★★★

Bullzeye ★★½
Ricochet ★★½
motel room ★★½
RadicalFuzz ★★½

DrWigly ★★

Choutas ★½

Metalmarsh89 ½

[Diiny]

"Wait, really? Floyd? Wasn't he once one of Choutas's scummiest reads? :o ★★½ "

I ctrl f'd his name in choutas's ph and he mentioned him before that like once or twice. He was orange in a rainbow from before. Still reading your iso

[RadicalFuzz]

What have we become with these gifs

MM I find your word choice strange, yes. That word choice conveys a mindset that is strange to me. It is not related to reasons for suspecting people. The "angle" at which you're thinking, as assumed from your post in question, is not intuitive to civilians, in my opinion. I'm sorry that I haven't been very clear.

Diiny could you give me the quick and dirty on your suspicions of me? No rush, I'm headed out for the evening, but I'd appreciate it if you'd get back to me.

That siren gif is glorious

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Top secret:

In past games, most of the time when I have made a "rallying cry" type of post to try to motivate the town to action, the people who have been most willing to take me up on that have been bad guys.

Hi Russ, hi Choutas, hi Marsh, hi Rico.

[Strawhenge]

That siren gif is glorious

Finally! Thank you.

::glares at RYM crowd::

[Strawhenge]

Cast my vote for Choutas for now...And the other two of my top three scumspects are the only other ones on the vote. Way to make me second-guess my entire life, guys.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm afraid this project was way too ambitious. I should have known that going in -- I just don't have as much time as I need to be this thorough. Future analyses will have to be shorter. None of you care.

It's lame when my motivation does not mesh with the universe around me.

[Marmot]

Top secret:

In past games, most of the time when I have made a "rallying cry" type of post to try to motivate the town to action, the people who have been most willing to take me up on that have been bad guys.

Hi Russ, hi Choutas, hi Marsh, hi Rico.

[Sloonei]

[Strawhenge]

I'm afraid this project was way too ambitious. I should have known that going in -- I just don't have as much time as I need to be this thorough. Future analyses will have to be shorter. None of you care.

It's lame when my motivation does not mesh with the universe around me.

I may be wary of you at all times, Jay-Bone, but I care.

im sorry for the jay-bone thing i dont know why i

[Diiny]

What have we become with these gifs


Diiny could you give me the quick and dirty on your suspicions of me? No rush, I'm headed out for the evening, but I'd appreciate it if you'd get back to me.

That siren gif is glorious

it is

Generally speaking your interactions with the other scum members are indicative of bad stuff. With floyd you're soft on him, and ignore a pretty obvious, certainly worth chasing scumslip from him. You even called it that later yourself, albeit later. And you tell me you CONCIOUSLY ignored it, and in the name of being nice?! BAD. With mac, I can see a scum connection because of how you clash only over non-damning matters. I've phrased this better in my ph.

Vote history doesn't counteract these bad vibes at all

[Strawhenge]

Okay, I'm gonna go do things that pertain to my life goals, or smth. I'll see you guys soon.