Re: Secret Playerlist - Day 5 Ends 10am Dec 17 GMT +10 (Aus Eastern Standard Time)
Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:19 pm
Don't really like these posts.
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Don't really like these posts.
Maybe a stretch to see this as trying to secure my yeet over Vivax.ilario wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 2:25 pm[VOTE: drwilgy] auberginesantygrass wrote: ↑Sat Dec 10, 2022 1:58 pm Wagons with more than 1 vote rn I think
Wilg (5) Silverkeith, nutella, ranmilia, Vivax , Ilario*
Ranmilia (3) Iaafr , Porscha , Neon
Vivax (3) DeZees, Michelle, Santygrass
Neon (2) Seanzie , Hally
Ilario is voting wilg incorrectly rn so it could be not counted lol
hopefully this counts then
fwiw this what i was saying is exactly in their town meta btwInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:17 pm and their response to not being able to catch up quick enough to find out why, is to unvote Falcon?
It seems a bit too easy, but I see where your head is at and was thinking about the same team a second ago.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:20 pm Does a Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon world make any lick of sense?
yesInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:20 pm Does a Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon world make any lick of sense?
But they weren't on either wagon though? They had an established vote, did they think that they were voting Jack/Vivax?nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:20 pmfwiw this what i was saying is exactly in their town meta btwInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:17 pm and their response to not being able to catch up quick enough to find out why, is to unvote Falcon?
when theyre indecisive at an eod and dont feel strongly they just dont vote bc they dont want to be responsible for picking between wagons
but it's easily doable as wolf lol
yeahInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:19 pm If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not
Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon
It's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look herenutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:25 pmyeahInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:19 pm If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not
Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon
and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing
mm
the "seems a bit too easy" argument is almost always misappliedSeanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:21 pmIt seems a bit too easy, but I see where your head is at and was thinking about the same team a second ago.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:20 pm Does a Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon world make any lick of sense?
I think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:27 pmIt's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look herenutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:25 pmyeahInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:19 pm If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not
Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon
and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing
mm
I'm not saying we need to scrap the whole team, I'm just not committing to it as the sole final option, and while I don't have a better team I could give right now, I'd guess the probability of that exact team being right is less than 50%, probably even less than 35%.nutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:28 pmthe "seems a bit too easy" argument is almost always misappliedSeanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:21 pmIt seems a bit too easy, but I see where your head is at and was thinking about the same team a second ago.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:20 pm Does a Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon world make any lick of sense?
it always feels safer to assume theres a deeper wolf but in reality that kind of paranoia often lets "too easy"/lying-low teams skate by
i think we take this to its logical conclusion as far as it goes and yeet through those three
ooh yeah that's another tidbit i hadn't considered/checked the math or timing on. so yeah i think them not just staying on falcon really makes sense as wInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:24 pm Hally's unvote directly saves Falcon from a supposed tie and in theory would chop Jack.
I looked at Schia's EoD4 minposting antics, and I don't see why it is scummy.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:30 pm If the team is Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon though
Where does that put Schia and Schia's minposting antics that everybody thought was incredibly scummy at SoD yesterday? It doesn't feel right because I think Schia has to be mafia, I just don't know who to actually replace in that scenario because individually I think there's stronger merit for those three and in combo with each other, whereas Schia is just a weird slot doing weird things in comparison
I don't have the answer, but knowing that Vivax was Mafia PR, specifically the Scout, then Vivax is the single most-important person on the team to keep alive. Moreso than anybody else there would've been waves and moves made to protect Vivax from getting chopped. There was none of that, it's almost like there was nobody there at EoD to actually control the wagon, and even Vivax was present and didn't do anything about his wagon. That is what's signalling to me that the team didn't expect him to die. The lack of attempt to save your Mafia PR means that you didn't think your Mafia PR needed saving. And either that means that they were overconfident and misread the players on Vivax's wagon, or that the team just wasn't active at all (and if it's Ilario/Hally/Falcon then that's very true, but doesn't explain Vivax's blasé attitude toward his becoming top wagon last-second)Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:29 pmI think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:27 pmIt's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look herenutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:25 pmyeahInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:19 pm If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not
Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon
and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing
mm
i don't really think schia *has* to be mafiaInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:30 pm If the team is Vivax/Hally/Ilario/Falcon though
Where does that put Schia and Schia's minposting antics that everybody thought was incredibly scummy at SoD yesterday? It doesn't feel right because I think Schia has to be mafia, I just don't know who to actually replace in that scenario because individually I think there's stronger merit for those three and in combo with each other, whereas Schia is just a weird slot doing weird things in comparison
Vivax was clearly trying to take refuge in audacity, so I am not surprised about Vivax's attutide EoD.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:33 pmI don't have the answer, but knowing that Vivax was Mafia PR, specifically the Scout, then Vivax is the single most-important person on the team to keep alive. Moreso than anybody else there would've been waves and moves made to protect Vivax from getting chopped. There was none of that, it's almost like there was nobody there at EoD to actually control the wagon, and even Vivax was present and didn't do anything about his wagon. That is what's signalling to me that the team didn't expect him to die. The lack of attempt to save your Mafia PR means that you didn't think your Mafia PR needed saving. And either that means that they were overconfident and misread the players on Vivax's wagon, or that the team just wasn't active at all (and if it's Ilario/Hally/Falcon then that's very true, but doesn't explain Vivax's blasé attitude toward his becoming top wagon last-second)Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:29 pmI think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:27 pmIt's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look herenutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:25 pmyeahInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:19 pm If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not
Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon
and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing
mm
The only real interaction with Vivax that would indicate this is here:
Very waffley. I feel that if the "pings" were real, there'd be more than this?
Vivax wrote: ↑Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:02 pmShe seemed rather upset.
Like she just played dead space or something.
I'd like some other players opinions here.
i actually was thinking about this earlier (when dz defended himself based on vivax being pr) and i really think it doesn't matter that muchInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:33 pmI don't have the answer, but knowing that Vivax was Mafia PR, specifically the Scout, then Vivax is the single most-important person on the team to keep alive. Moreso than anybody else there would've been waves and moves made to protect Vivax from getting chopped. There was none of that, it's almost like there was nobody there at EoD to actually control the wagon, and even Vivax was present and didn't do anything about his wagon. That is what's signalling to me that the team didn't expect him to die. The lack of attempt to save your Mafia PR means that you didn't think your Mafia PR needed saving. And either that means that they were overconfident and misread the players on Vivax's wagon, or that the team just wasn't active at all (and if it's Ilario/Hally/Falcon then that's very true, but doesn't explain Vivax's blasé attitude toward his becoming top wagon last-second)Seanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:29 pmI think the biggest hole in your theory is why they'd expect Vivax to survive. I don't think this was a given.Inawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:27 pmIt's not even that they did nothing, that's not true. They just did the "wrong something" and it's really not a good look herenutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:25 pmyeahInawordyes wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:19 pm If Hally is a player, then their vote carries weight ofc, and unvoting was probably about the scummiest thing they could've done in the scenario. They could've voted Jack, Jack maybe flips or it at least ties with Vivax. They could've voted Vivax, did not. They could've stayed on Falcon, did not
Considering the idea that Falcon/Vivax were W/W, it looks even worse because this would be the "mafia is confident that Vivax won't flip" protection move to throw your vote off the other buddy in the tie expecting that Jack would go rather than there being a tie rand between Jack and Falcon
and like i said i think they knew if they moved to jack in that situation (having come back and not read and just moving to another cw with no prior history on that push) it would be outing so instead they did nothing
mm
i can tell you what my thought process was regarding those posts if it mattersDrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:36 pm Hallys ISO pertaining to Vivax was actually easier than I thought. Guess I was just procrastinating when I'd see there was 8 pages.
So in spite of the pings as Hally noted recently:The only real interaction with Vivax that would indicate this is here:Very waffley. I feel that if the "pings" were real, there'd be more than this?
The only other real interaction they had was NAI and can be seen here:Vivax wrote: ↑Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:02 pmShe seemed rather upset.
Like she just played dead space or something.I'd like some other players opinions here.
What do you think of Ilario?Hally wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:54 pm the honest truth is that i just got frustrated with this game when half the people weren’t doing anything and then some other people were being flippantly anti-town so i just didn’t give enough of a shit to put in more effort last day
and then this day i have legit been busy
call it a drop off if you want![]()
has he even posted? beyond just hitting minimum every daySeanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:55 pmWhat do you think of Ilario?Hally wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:54 pm the honest truth is that i just got frustrated with this game when half the people weren’t doing anything and then some other people were being flippantly anti-town so i just didn’t give enough of a shit to put in more effort last day
and then this day i have legit been busy
call it a drop off if you want![]()
Well this is a misrepresentation of what I said and completely changes its meaning but coolPorscha wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:13 pm I missed any eod stuff but the only thing that pinged me about neon to my memory is when she made the post at start of... yesterday? Saying "good, porscha is still obv towning" because like
Once I'm obv town I dont just 180, so what was the point of saying it? Felt sorta pockety towards me / trying to say something that sounds like they had thoughts early into the day
At that point though I didnt consider it worthy of being pointed out so i let it ride
Cant say its AI at this point?
Idk if there was anything from like page 126-138 that has some sussy neon stuff lemme know but otherwise I'm feeling pretty in the dark
I mean this in the most loving way possible. If you dont wish to make playing harder for me than necessary, please start making at least some of your posts shorter than a small essay. Lol
I'll do it. Show me a Nutella push that doesn't end on town.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 6:58 pmNo thanksSeanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:52 pmConvince me that Nutella is scum.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:41 pmI can't hear you over the sound of my massive tunnelnutella wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:02 pmyou arent buddy lolNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:41 pm I'm aware I'm in a tunnel but im also aware I'm correct so neener neener
Yeah, so his ISO is short. Let me know your thoughts.Hally wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:56 pmhas he even posted? beyond just hitting minimum every daySeanzie wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:55 pmWhat do you think of Ilario?Hally wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 7:54 pm the honest truth is that i just got frustrated with this game when half the people weren’t doing anything and then some other people were being flippantly anti-town so i just didn’t give enough of a shit to put in more effort last day
and then this day i have legit been busy
call it a drop off if you want![]()