The Syndicate

Hmm no last min shenanigans.

Who killed bcornett24?

Poll ended at Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:51:37 pm


Bullzeye
3
Choutas (4), motel room (15), JaggedJimmyJay (16) 14%
Choutas
4
DrWilgy (2), Strawhenge (14), RadicalFuzz (19), Metalmarsh89 (21) 18%
Diiny
0
No votes
DrWilgy
0
No votes
JaggedJimmyJay
0
No votes
motel room
2
Ricochet (18), Russtifinko (22) 9%
RadicalFuzz
1
Diiny (13) 5%
Ricochet
0
No votes
Russtifinko
0
No votes
Strawhenge
0
No votes
It was me! (Hosts/dead/non-players)
12
Sloonei (1), MacDougall (3), a2thezebra (5), HamburgerBoy (6), MovingPictures07 (7), Matt F (8), TheFloyd73 (9), Draconus (10), Sorsha (11), S~V~S (12), Golden (17), Epignosis (20) 55%
Total votes : 22

Choutas has been lynched. He was Seen and Not Seen.

His face had been changed to The Syndicate.

It is now Night 10. You have 20 hours to send in your PMs.

RIP Choutas.

Bullzeye didn't vote.

Strawhenge's fixation on Metalmarsh and Choutas seems weaker with Choutas being town.

Choutas wrote:I thought Biggie would be the music video for my flip.

Mo Posts Mo Problems

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.

Now that we're on the other side, why did you prefer him to Bullzeye? I went a bit back through your posts and couldnt really see.

Ass.

Marsh's late tiebreaker vote on Choutas.

Marsh's late tiebreaker vote on Choutas.

Marsh's late tiebreaker vote on Choutas.

RIP Choutas.

Will there even be any kills tonight? If that double-kill SK theory is closer to the truth, that would mean the SK cannot make a move tonight, just like on N5. I mean, the SK killing three people in two phases, once every three or so cycles, sounds pretty opie to me. And it's an even night, so no Mafia kill either...

Strawhenge wrote:Marsh's late tiebreaker vote on Choutas.

Marsh's late tiebreaker vote on Choutas.

Marsh's late tiebreaker vote on Choutas.

Didn't you vote for Choutas there, buddy?

Wait, I totally missed that MM voted Motel, then switched to break a three-way tie.

Either WTF or welcome to the deciding voters suckers club, Marshy.

motel room wrote:Ok I read Rico's case of me. It doesn't sound super compelling (to me) and he has a sentence considering me doing what I did from a town angle in pretty much every para. But yeah I think he's genuine. It's hard to defend against my votes when they end up wrong but I've tried to explain why I made them as much as possible, rico.

um one thing -

Ricochet wrote:I was searching for my Floyd interaction read on him, but forgot I never managed to posted it in time. Luckily, I had it saved on an rtf file.

Why an rtf?

What's a para?

And are you asking why an rtf instead of a docx or why a computer file instead of using the reply box directly? The answer to both is that's how I like it, anyway.

wtf EBWOP

Ricochet wrote:

motel room wrote:Ok I read Rico's case of me. It doesn't sound super compelling (to me) and he has a sentence considering me doing what I did from a town angle in pretty much every para. But yeah I think he's genuine. It's hard to defend against my votes when they end up wrong but I've tried to explain why I made them as much as possible, rico.

um one thing -

Ricochet wrote:I was searching for my Floyd interaction read on him, but forgot I never managed to posted it in time. Luckily, I had it saved on an rtf file.

Why an rtf?

What's a para?

And are you asking why an rtf instead of a docx or why a computer file instead of using the reply box directly? The answer to both is that's how I like it, anyway.

Sorry for the quadruple, I should just go back to sleep, even though it's 11am.

Rico, talk to me about motel room. I think he looks non-mafia after my mafia spew review.

I'm planning to take a brain nap throughout this Night. Heck, if any killer officially sends me on vacation tonight, I wouldn't even take it at heart that much...If I'd be mafia or SK, I'd start revelling in this current situation, but since I'm not, I'm nearing genuine civilian meltdown.

I mean, seriously, Choutas was my second top suspect or something like that and he turned out civ as well. Right now my brain is mocking me "So ya really thought lynching two baddies and always voting early was scum blend, did ya now? Real smart guy you are."

Since Choutas was an LC voter, if I'd push further with the same angle on motel and he'd come out civ as well...well, I've said this earlier, but I'd be basically pushing the game inches towards lylo. This doubting myself is killing me a bit right now...

Anyway, yes, our reads on motel end up on the opposite side. I don't know what more to say to that. I feel that in lack of a new mafia flip, my reads upon reads upon reads will not really develop further.

I mean seriously, the LC voters left right now are Wilgy, motel, Russ and yrself. None of them can be read without a drop of "did they, didn't they". This cracking up how things stand with LC's voters is tortuous.

If Wilgy is good, he did a fine job both times picking up on vibes and developing some cases, orderly enough to justify his vote and keep it there.
If Wilgy is bad, he is king busser.

Tell me which one sounds more likely?

If motel is good, he made a good call coming back on the LC wagon, but let himself immerse in townreading Mac and reacting to others' signals way too much on the Diiny counterwagons, not to unfortunately come of as scummy.
If motel is bad, he made a buss call on returning to LC, before the wagon would go steaming again, and he fought till the bitter end to save Mac.

Tell me which one sounds more likely?

If Russ is good, he had decisive votes on both LC and Mac. Especially on Mac.
If Russ is bad, he made a cynical vote on teamie LC and pushed a vote on Mac that he couldn't backslide away from, when the counterwagon chances improved. It does improve his cred considerably, but it makes him a heinous teammate.

Tell me which one sounds more likely?

I won't recap how things stand for you, went over this time and again. Plus, I haven't even read you as potential SK, jesus christ...
Not to mention that I really need to go shopping for that baseball bat, this weekend, just in case...

So yeah I'm feeling lost and too undecided on this angle and it makes me considering looking at my neutrals that were all off-course in the LC and Mac affair. Meaning Bullzeye and RF, because damn if I'll go over Diiny again, considering that D6. Fark this game sideways if he's mafia coming out of that. Maybe SK? I really can't tell.

Plus, I fear that MM will be lynch material tomorrow anyway. If he's civ, good luck to 'im, 'cause that vote move is so scum- or rogue-looking, I'm not sure what can improve how he looks.

That being said, I'm trusting less Straw's call on MM than before. That "I voted Choutas to be lynched, but omfg looks at that Marsh vote killing poor Choutas" sentence (I know I'm paraphrasing) doesn't sit well with me. And he still won't create a case on MM to try to insert and sweeten what looks like a night power deduction. And he still won't give a hint whether his deduction is vague in nature or direct in regards to MM. I realize he's probably had his mouth tied by the mods, but he should still attempt to insert this somehow in a case or just make a strong case for a guy he's voted four Days out of five. Sure, he'll probably say he already did, but nah... I'm seeing less and less of such initiative, and it's making me drop his case more and more.

RIP Choutas.

Rico, I'm in a similar state to yours. I really thought Choutas would flip bad based on what he was saying at EOD. And every single player has major points for and against them now, LC voters probably more than most.

To me it's looking increasingly likely that baddies just distributed their votes elsewhere on D2. That seems the smarter move, because with the final tally what it was, 3 additional baddies would've had to vote bcornett for it not be revealed that LC was Flowers. That is a lot of baddies to all be voting together that early in the game, and they probably figured the risk was too big.

JJJ, I personally don't find the scum spew analysis super valuable. No offense meant here, but it reads like you go into it with your read on a player, mention how the mafia has brought that player up, and state that whatever was said solidifies your read. I know I was the one who asked you to look at more obscure things, but it just feels like a reach when I read it. That said, maybe I'm also reading it with bias since I think motel room is bad and you don't. I also think MM's move off of motel room makes motel look worse in addition to MM. If one of them is bad, I'd bet dimes to dollars the other is.

Reading Rico's post does convince me that Bullz and Fuzz (and all non-bcornett or LC voters from D2) are worth a closer look.

I'll only be around in a limited capacity until Sunday. My sister and a childhood friend are in to visit me for Halloween! I apologize for taking any time out so late in the game, but I only get to see them a few times a year so that takes priority for me. I'll try to at least stay read up on my phone, so I can be back to full-blown posting after they leave Sunday.

I should've thought to say this before, but do others have Halloween plans as well? I would be totally fine with MP extending either N10 or D11 if others are busy too.

Ditto regarding Halloween stuff. Fine either way.

You think I'm scum/rogue trying to setup a favorable LYLO by asking players who'd they lynch between players A and B? The problem with that is you're expecting people to be static. If I asked Wilgy on Day 10 who he'd lynch between A and B, that could very easily change by Day 12/13. I'm dumb sometimes, but I'm aware that people are living things whose thoughts and opinions are going to change with facts and interpretations as time goes on. I'm kind of annoyed you'd attribute that to me after how I've played this game. If I was playing super illogically, then sure, no reason to assume that will change, but even if some things haven't made sense they haven't been downright backwards like that.

motel room wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Choutas

Between Bullzeye and Choutas, I'd rather lynch Choutas.

Now that we're on the other side, why did you prefer him to Bullzeye? I went a bit back through your posts and couldnt really see.

Jay brought up Bullzeye's recent behavior. I thought it was a good point. But then I noticed Choutas' behavior today as well. Early on this Day phase, he made about not having time to play and getting modkilled. Then, as the day grew late and it grew more likely he would be lynched, he got more into defending himself. I misread this, thinking he was a member of mafia, trying to bluff us.

I feel bad about it. I didn't have a lot of confidence in the vote, but took it upon myself to break the tie anyway.

Ricochet wrote:Wait, I totally missed that MM voted Motel, then switched to break a three-way tie.

Either WTF or welcome to the deciding voters suckers club, Marshy.

Thanks. I wish I didn't have to join this club.

Russtifinko wrote:JJJ, I personally don't find the scum spew analysis super valuable. No offense meant here, but it reads like you go into it with your read on a player, mention how the mafia has brought that player up, and state that whatever was said solidifies your read. I know I was the one who asked you to look at more obscure things, but it just feels like a reach when I read it. That said, maybe I'm also reading it with bias since I think motel room is bad and you don't. I also think MM's move off of motel room makes motel look worse in addition to MM. If one of them is bad, I'd bet dimes to dollars the other is.

I wanted my vote to count, and I didn't want a tie happening. I think you can understand this perspective.

Ricochet wrote:Anyway, yes, our reads on motel end up on the opposite side. I don't know what more to say to that. I feel that in lack of a new mafia flip, my reads upon reads upon reads will not really develop further.

I'm not asking you to redevelop your read. I'm asking you to review the spew I put up and explain exactly where you disagree with my conclusions. As of right now, I think motel room is the most likely player to be lynched on Day 11 assuming he gets there, and if I read him as being non-mafia I am going to resist that motion. Everyone who is suspicious of him is still obligated to engage in this discussion, I don't care how much discussion and analysis has already happened before this point.

My approach is different from yours. I am not concerned with the people who voted for LC. That is why I want you to talk to me about my conclusions.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My approach is different from yours. I am not concerned with the people who voted for LC. That is why I want you to talk to me about my conclusions.

If I understand you correctly, you are reading motel room as non-mafia while not including all of the possibilities that could impact that read?

Russtifinko wrote:RIP Choutas.

Rico, I'm in a similar state to yours. I really thought Choutas would flip bad based on what he was saying at EOD. And every single player has major points for and against them now, LC voters probably more than most.

Why?

Russtifinko wrote:To me it's looking increasingly likely that baddies just distributed their votes elsewhere on D2. That seems the smarter move, because with the final tally what it was, 3 additional baddies would've had to vote bcornett for it not be revealed that LC was Flowers. That is a lot of baddies to all be voting together that early in the game, and they probably figured the risk was too big.

?

The Flowers role would be exposed somewhere in bcornett's bandwagon, but it wouldn't be a certainty that it was LC.

Russtifinko wrote:JJJ, I personally don't find the scum spew analysis super valuable. No offense meant here, but it reads like you go into it with your read on a player, mention how the mafia has brought that player up, and state that whatever was said solidifies your read.

Before I did that review for motel room, I was highly conflicted on my read of motel room and was considering supporting Rico in lynching him. That review changed my mind. I couldn't have had a preconceived read going in -- that review determined my read.

Russtifinko wrote: know I was the one who asked you to look at more obscure things, but it just feels like a reach when I read it. That said, maybe I'm also reading it with bias since I think motel room is bad and you don't. I also think MM's move off of motel room makes motel look worse in addition to MM. If one of them is bad, I'd bet dimes to dollars the other is.

Remember that time you suggested I was focusing on the easy possibilities and not the more complex ones being fielded?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My approach is different from yours. I am not concerned with the people who voted for LC. That is why I want you to talk to me about my conclusions.

If I understand you correctly, you are reading motel room as non-mafia while not including all of the possibilities that could impact that read?

I had previously accounted for all of the variables Rico has been discussing in my own analyses of motel room, and it was turning up totally inconclusive reads. I have said it has been a very difficult read for me. But when I performed that specific mafia spew method, it turned back what I thought to be conclusive evidence that motel room is not aligned with the dead mafia players. This method stems from the champs finale when I was mafia and two of my opponents were combing my posts and those of my other dead compadre to identify the last mafioso. One of them was successful, but nobody listened to him and they lost.

I don't really understand why my vote would look SKish. I can understand it coming from a mafia perspective, but an SK doesn't give a damn who gets killed/lynched as long as it ain't him. If anything, at this point in the game, the SK will probably want to lynch mafia, and be more apt to behave like a civilian.

RadicalFuzz wrote:Ditto regarding Halloween stuff. Fine either way.

You think I'm scum/rogue trying to setup a favorable LYLO by asking players who'd they lynch between players A and B? The problem with that is you're expecting people to be static. If I asked Wilgy on Day 10 who he'd lynch between A and B, that could very easily change by Day 12/13. I'm dumb sometimes, but I'm aware that people are living things whose thoughts and opinions are going to change with facts and interpretations as time goes on. I'm kind of annoyed you'd attribute that to me after how I've played this game. If I was playing super illogically, then sure, no reason to assume that will change, but even if some things haven't made sense they haven't been downright backwards like that.

No. I'm not accusing you of doing something stupid, I'm accusing you of doing something rather brilliant. Of course people's reads can change, but that is definitely not going to stop any mafia player from trying to get a good read on how to maneuver the kills and lynches to give themselves the best chance when LyLo arrives. The questions you've been asking appear to stem from the void, and they make it seem like you're actively working to better understand players by asking them read-relevant questions. From there comes the wave of town reads on RadicalFuzz that you've claimed to loathe.

This would not be an illogical strategy. This is not a backwards strategy. It is literally not an accusation I've ever made before -- you're the first. You're going to have to tell me exactly what you really had to gain from those questions or I'm going to have no reason to change my mind.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My approach is different from yours. I am not concerned with the people who voted for LC. That is why I want you to talk to me about my conclusions.

If I understand you correctly, you are reading motel room as non-mafia while not including all of the possibilities that could impact that read?

I had previously accounted for all of the variables Rico has been discussing in my own analyses of motel room, and it was turning up totally inconclusive reads. I have said it has been a very difficult read for me. But when I performed that specific mafia spew method, it turned back what I thought to be conclusive evidence that motel room is not aligned with the dead mafia players. This method stems from the champs finale when I was mafia and two of my opponents were combing my posts and those of my other dead compadre to identify the last mafioso. One of them was successful, but nobody listened to him and they lost.

Considering that method of reading a player, do you think that it is potentially a more successful strategy than other mafia-hunting methods?

You seem keen on it, but I don't have the interest in abandoning the effort I put in today to try a different strategy that may or may not be successful. I also don't consider myself a very strong civilian, and am your suggestion that a group of top-notch scum-hunters can make this strategy effective doesn't apply to me.

Also, you say that one player did execute it successfully, but if no one listened to him, I would argue that it was actually not successful.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I don't really understand why my vote would look SKish. I can understand it coming from a mafia perspective, but an SK doesn't give a damn who gets killed/lynched as long as it ain't him. If anything, at this point in the game, the SK will probably want to lynch mafia, and be more apt to behave like a civilian.

Agreed. Numerous players have called you a top SK candidate and I don't understand why, so I'm going to ask and I expect people to answer me:

If you think MM is a candidate to be the SK, why do you feel that way? What is it that is unique about him that makes him a candidate in your eyes?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Considering that method of reading a player, do you think that it is potentially a more successful strategy than other mafia-hunting methods?

Potentially, sure. Everything is contextual. I think almost any strategy can have value when applied to the thread in the right way. In this game we have a unique opportunity offered by the presence of four confirmed dead mafia members -- that is a lot. The most difficult task a mafioso faces in my opinion isn't evading notice, it's preventing him/herself from revealing too much about their own inordinate knowledge of other players' alignments in their posts. They make mistakes, and I am confident in my ability to find them.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:You seem keen on it, but I don't have the interest in abandoning the effort I put in today to try a different strategy that may or may not be successful. I also don't consider myself a very strong civilian, and am your suggestion that a group of top-notch scum-hunters can make this strategy effective doesn't apply to me.

I am not asking everyone to employ this strategy. I am asking people to talk to me about my conclusions which differ from theirs arrived at by other strategies. I scumhunt about 9,000 different ways in any one game.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, you say that one player did execute it successfully, but if no one listened to him, I would argue that it was actually not successful.

Bullsuit. He employed this method and completely solved the game. He correctly identified the mafia team in its entirety when only one of them was dead. His mistake wasn't in employing this strategy -- it was in his failure to play with a sense of urgency and motivation to influence other players to his cause. I am not like him. I carry on and on when I don't get my way. I am a miserable nuisance.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Considering that method of reading a player, do you think that it is potentially a more successful strategy than other mafia-hunting methods?

Potentially, sure. Everything is contextual. I think almost any strategy can have value when applied to the thread in the right way. In this game we have a unique opportunity offered by the presence of four confirmed dead mafia members -- that is a lot. The most difficult task a mafioso faces in my opinion isn't evading notice, it's preventing him/herself from revealing too much about their own inordinate knowledge of other players' alignments in their posts. They make mistakes, and I am confident in my ability to find them.

This is true. Four dead mafia members seems like it could churn up a lot.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:You seem keen on it, but I don't have the interest in abandoning the effort I put in today to try a different strategy that may or may not be successful. I also don't consider myself a very strong civilian, and am your suggestion that a group of top-notch scum-hunters can make this strategy effective doesn't apply to me.

I am not asking everyone to employ this strategy. I am asking people to talk to me about my conclusions which differ from theirs arrived at by other strategies. I scumhunt about 9,000 different ways in any one game.

People think that Matt F and I are all over the place.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Also, you say that one player did execute it successfully, but if no one listened to him, I would argue that it was actually not successful.

Bullsuit. He employed this method and completely solved the game. He correctly identified the mafia team in its entirety when only one of them was dead. His mistake wasn't in employing this strategy -- it was in his failure to play with a sense of urgency and motivation to influence other players to his cause. I am not like him. I carry on and on when I don't get my way. I am a miserable nuisance.

Yes, yes you are.

If there is one area of hunting where I lack confidence, it's in identifying the SK. I don't have a great history for figuring out rogues, so I acknowledge that any read I provide is unlikely to account for the SK possibility a great deal because it just isn't my focus. Anyone out there is welcome to make him a priority if you think you have the skills to figure it out.

I'm going to write a Letter to the Serial Killer of my own, in memory of dear departed Choutas.

Dear serial killer,

You've been killing town reads all game long save perhaps for HamburgerBoy. You're going to need to stop doing that, not only for town's sake but also for your own. You're digging your own grave if you allow the mafia team to obtain a significant numbers advantage. Eventually they'll overwhelm you simply by virtue of voting advantage. So kill a mafia read already FFS.

Sincerely, JJJ

I'm at a loss. I normally don't apologize for mislynches. I don't think I will this time either, but I kinda want to. I'm going to rethink my life. Maybe when I return I will most definitely be a doctor.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:I don't really understand why my vote would look SKish. I can understand it coming from a mafia perspective, but an SK doesn't give a damn who gets killed/lynched as long as it ain't him. If anything, at this point in the game, the SK will probably want to lynch mafia, and be more apt to behave like a civilian.

Agreed. Numerous players have called you a top SK candidate and I don't understand why, so I'm going to ask and I expect people to answer me:

If you think MM is a candidate to be the SK, why do you feel that way? What is it that is unique about him that makes him a candidate in your eyes?

I don't think MM is SK, but I can see where players drew the conclusion from.

First the GTH we did all had MM as the most bad, but no one is able to strongly say that he is a teammate to confirmed baddies.

Second his SK interactions with Epi placed SK in our heads.

Hey Doc, did you kill bcornett so you could employ that bogus angle of suspicion against Choutas throughout Day 10?

DrWilgy wrote:I don't think MM is SK, but I can see where players drew the conclusion from.

First the GTH we did all had MM as the most bad, but no one is able to strongly say that he is a teammate to confirmed baddies.

Second his SK interactions with Epi placed SK in our heads.

Why've you handed that answer to everyone else before they've had the obligation to give me one of their own?

Doc, can you recall specific instances of RadicalFuzz asking numerous LyLo-oriented questions of people in past games? I've asserted he is grooming you and/or me for a potential LyLo scenario under the guise of merely asking us questions.

I did not.

Why do you see it as bogus?

Thought it would help you + I'm here currently. Who is your top pick for sk?

Fuzz never lives this long so idk.

DrWilgy wrote:I did not.

Why do you see it as bogus?

It was extremely specific in nature. It took one basic question and turned it into a nuanced mafia strategy to identify the protective role.

DrWilgy wrote:Thought it would help you + I'm here currently. Who is your top pick for sk?

Could be anyone. My focus has been on mafia. I wouldn't expect it to be someone who has taken a severe stance against confirmed mafia like Rico, because that begs for a nightkill (assuming the *secrets* portion of the SK role doesn't include bulletproof or something OP like that).

DrWilgy wrote:Fuzz never lives this long so idk.

What do you think then of the theory I have proposed as being the motivator for those questions he's asked?

An alternative explanation for Bullzeye's subdued responses to Mac's accusations could be that he's the SK and just didn't want to ruffle feathers.

Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth.

Epignosis wrote:Night 5 posts

bcornett24- 0 posts
Bullzeye- 10 posts
Choutas- 12 posts
Diiny- 0 posts (0 posts Day 6 also)
DrWilgy- 0 posts
Elohcin- Isn't even reading the thread 3 posts
Epignosis- Count yourself if you care
JaggedJimmyJay- 14,241 posts
Matt F- 24 posts
Metalmarsh89- 24 posts
motel room- 0 posts
RadicalFuzz- 11 posts
Ricochet- 27 posts
Russtifinko- 10 posts
sig- 0 posts
Strawhenge- 2 posts
TheFloyd73- The Mountain Comes to Mohammad

Guys, there are 9 players alive with potential kill(s) looming. Day 11 could be LyLo for town if there are 3 mafia left.

Sense of urgency now or never.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Bullzeye being mafia is not supported by Epignosis's theory, for what it's worth

Of the living players implicated by that theory, who do you lean toward?

Strawhenge, if you want MM lynched you better build a dang case today. Get through the burnout, the game is almost over anyway. It's impossible to follow your lead if you don't try.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Guys, there are 9 players alive with potential kill(s) looming. Day 11 could be LyLo for town if there are 3 mafia left.

Sense of urgency now or never.

10 players if you include the marmot not on the poll.

bcornett is a possibility, but we may know more about that come daytime.

Between motel room, DrWilgy, and Diiny, my initial reaction is to lean motel room. I think DrWilgy falls into that same category you have put Ricochet in, of someone who has (at times) gone hard against mafia.

Good news though, no mafia kill tonight.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:10 players if you include the marmot not on the poll.

Derp.