The Syndicate

G-Man wrote:Apologies for splitting this up but I want to get this out there before too close to the deadline. I'll post the vote analysis portion after I eat dinner.

Behavioral Observations:

Pre-Day 1 he jumped right in and tried to help with the opening decoding puzzle

-Night 1 he becomes an early adherant of 1) Epi is civ-aligned and 2) Not all Toasters are bad. He asks people for their thoughts about the merits of the checkerboard sortie plan.

Day 2 he initially suspects Nutella for very silly reasons (the letter N isn't common- um, watch Wheel of Fortune much?) The primary reasoning was that I agreed with JJJ's case

Day 3 he recommends we use either Glorfindel or bea on the counterwagon to LoRab instead of Nero, who flipped human. Later on, as the Nero train is established, he reverses course and suggests we put Nero in the lead over LoRab, which would nix our ability to confirm her amnesty claim.

Day 4 he thanks Cain for martial law (even though it makes the game harder to win for the civs)

Night 5 he seems pretty firm in thinking that Wilgy is bad and says he'll be suspicious of Wilgy defenders if Wilgy flips as Caprica 6.

Day 6 he still pursues his suspicion of Wilgy and chides those who buy into Wilgy being Caprica 6 or #2. He also questions Dex's and Polo's motives for entertaining the notion that Wilgy is civ-aligned. He also questions the issue of balancing a game with a small baddie team.

Day 7 he was in the brig, I think.

Correcting a few things here for accuracy sake. I never thanked Cain for Martial Law. I told him he should reverse it. Here's the quote:

So say we all.

LoRab is the clear lynch today, since he claimed cylon to get out of his last one. And now that Cain put us in martial law, thanks for that by the way, we have to lynch them all.

Cain, seriously though reconsider this martial law. 8 cylons + the final five = 13 specific people that need to be dead for town to win.


LoRab being first would be the safest call imo. In case the law is removed later, Epig would still be on our side.

And I would MM, but I did it yesterday.

Additionally, I did not suspect them for entertaining it, it was for the certainty they possessed that it is true, which would makes sense if they were mafia.

Going to *vote bea* because:

A. She's tied with rabbit, who I don't have baddie vibes from, and who's often an easy lynch for the mafia
B. As I stated in my last post: bea's weirdo record plus the cases against her are enough for me to justify a mild suspicion of her
C. I want to test SVS and rabbit, and see if their interpretations have merit.
D. gotta vote someone

I think and hope I've completed my 10 post quota and successfully avoided a chewing out from the Admiral. This post is admittedly to make sure

S~V~S wrote:I am going to

*Vote Bea*

Her answers were scrambly & vague. The main other person I came into today suspecting, sig, dropped down my list with what I felt was not an answer a baddie would give about how he survived. Not totally off the list, but down it quite some ways.

Most of the game I felt pretty good about Jay, and rereading him made me get that feel back. His recent suspicion of rabbit got my back up somewhat since it seemed somewhat biased by general demeanor, which struck me as possibly opportunistic and not totally Jay, but like I said, reading back reminded me of why I trusted him in the first place.

Imo though Bea's answers were clearer than Rabbit's. Bea provided a full set of reads that mostly felt genuine, while Rabbit just kind of said people were scum with no reasoning. I'll agree that Bea's behavior is weird, but imo so has Rabbit. The fact that he will not provide any reasoning for his strong scumread on 3J and refuses to answer really strikes me the wrong way.

I will be voting for Rabbit8

Also, I would like a reply from Sig and Polo to my responses a few pages back.

After checking your posts, DrumBeats, this is the one we are both referencing. I apologize for failing to take your whole post into account in my notes. I noted your sarcastic ''thanks for that" but failed to note it as sarcasm. You were not in favor of Cain after all. The rest of my behavior observations stand though. You've had a strange game, sir.

Now for that better offer...

Imaflipcivvie.

DrumBeats wrote:

S~V~S wrote:I am going to

*Vote Bea*

Her answers were scrambly & vague. The main other person I came into today suspecting, sig, dropped down my list with what I felt was not an answer a baddie would give about how he survived. Not totally off the list, but down it quite some ways.

Most of the game I felt pretty good about Jay, and rereading him made me get that feel back. His recent suspicion of rabbit got my back up somewhat since it seemed somewhat biased by general demeanor, which struck me as possibly opportunistic and not totally Jay, but like I said, reading back reminded me of why I trusted him in the first place.

Imo though Bea's answers were clearer than Rabbit's. Bea provided a full set of reads that mostly felt genuine, while Rabbit just kind of said people were scum with no reasoning. I'll agree that Bea's behavior is weird, but imo so has Rabbit. The fact that he will not provide any reasoning for his strong scumread on 3J and refuses to answer really strikes me the wrong way.

I will be voting for Rabbit8

Sure, other then I said over and over I don't want to lynch him first..... I think he''s bad, pending certain things... But yeah, go with what you said. Because I should give you my reasons even though .....

insertnamehere wrote:I think and hope I've completed my 10 post quota and successfully avoided a chewing out from the Admiral. This post is admittedly to make sure

Uh oh I forgot about that. Let me do that now......kind off


So top three mafia reads?

Wilgy, I think the case agaisnt him before he flipped was good, he claimed cylon and nobody seems to care, and I doubt he is good. Assuming Epi is good we at least know who he is. With Wilgy we have no clue which is a big difference between the two.

OA, her insistence that I'm an outted cylon is strange and makes has no logic? I was never in first not even when I claimed cylon so there is no reason to believe what so ever I'm a cylon. I've told her this a few times and she has yet to provide a reason for why I'm a cylon. She has also has some strange behaviors which I believe have been addressed by other players in an ISO.

Drum I can't remember off the top of my head why I think he's mafia, but I remember harping on him being mafia for awhile. So once I have more time I'll look over that again.

I'm not sure where to place Polo I thought he was mafia for his behavior, but now I need to look over his posts again and think about it. What I find strange is how quickly he went from reading me as mafia who had to be lynched to being a civ, I found this odd. Not that I'm complaining or anything. :P
I didn't like that he voted so early in the phase either.

Also I hate to open this can of worms, but what if Glorfindel wasn't mafia? How would that change the game. I do believe there is a world where Glorfindel is a civ and that there is a chance this is the scenario we're in. This brings me to another point why if Epi is a civ would he still be alive, I'm starting to get Turf War feels from Epi and I don't like that.

Having said that I'm not sure if Bea is mafia, I did think Zebra was mafia I'm still unsure about Epi. This is actually a rather hard decscion for me, I'm okay with either wagon, but I doubt both are mafia. I believe I'll be voting for Bea, I haven't seen anything from Rabbit that is mafiaish and I'm not even sure now if Zebra was mafia or if I just was frustrated with her playstyle. I think the case on Bea has some good points, and oddly enough I trust the people on Bea's wagon more so then those on Rabbits.

Bea

Sorry for the rambling I'll provide more content tomorrow afternoon.

linki: and I missed the vote Sorry about that it took me longer to write my post then anticipated.

oh joy another tie

Aw shit, sorry Bea

Well.... I suck.

Sorry Bea.

Here is what I would like a response to Sig:

DrumBeats wrote:

sig wrote:Yes since he was killed to frame me.


My change on Epi wasn't a flipflop he addressed my concerns and I was fine after that. Though there is still a world he is mafia. :P

iirc not much framing was necessary for you to gaim suspicion. Why do you think mafia would use their night kill just to frame you?

If we delve into that level of paranoia I have two theories.

1. if they were to kill me it would make people more likely to take what I said seriously namely me saying we should lynch Wilgy.
2. I speculated about this early in that I think the mafia attempted to kill me early in the game, but for some reason there kill failed.

I think my first theory is much more likely and think tomorrow we should be lynching Wilgy.

Sorry I didnt get a chance to vote, I passed out last night after my last post-a-thon.

Rest in Piece Bea, I'm glad I was right about you and sorry you got lynched.


I am totally game for a Dr W Lynch. I know some say he may be a Cylon and "Good" but I disagree.
Since no one has presented any telling evidence as to how he wasn't spaced in Week 5, I think that is telling enough to say that Dr.W is a Cylon. I think he needs to go!

Ugh... I got super busy the past few days (Wilgettes parent's came to visit) and am sorry I missed. Probably would've voted JJJ if I was here.

Are we back to lynching me with no reason again? Does Sokoth think there's chance I'm not cylon? That's how he's been phrasing it, and not a good look from my perspective. Why wpuld you vote for someone you can't even properly define? It's well known I'm a cylon.

Now I drive to Houston for my little bro bros graduation.

I'm sorry, power went off mid report and I had to retune the whole thing and by the time I got here I missed the vote. Catching up. I prob would have voted sig

Well shit. This was not what I was hoping for

Failed again, I am just utter suck. It was 3am, when I crashed again. (I work at the computer sitting in bed and recently I mismanaged my sleep hours and day activity - which has been rather intense - so poorly, that at every sign of feeling like lying down, it's basically a sign I may plunge under. I've basically never went to bed properly in a long time... Last night, I remember that the computer even had to reboot and I must have falled asleep while waiting for that).

Anyway, I apologise to bea. My suspicions of her resurfaced upon analysis - and that was pretty much everything I accomplished. I wouldn't say I was decided to vote for her, but given that rabbit, whom I still suspect, was close by, I think that's just as bad.

Plus, it seems I did accurately pick on her hinting at being an original Final Five character.

RIP

RIP bea.

Not going to lie, you were one of my top susses. One reason that I never shared was that Glorfindel at one point used the word "maths". I looked into his entire post history at the Syndicate, and he had never used that word before until this game. And I know you use the word "maths" often, so I thought maybe you were saying it in btsc and he picked up on it.

Alas, that wasn't so.

Now, ObscureAllure, I would like to know...

ObscureAllure wrote:Bea - I keep seeing you say you're a nub player. have you not been playing for years?

What was your intent with this post? Did you think that bea was trying to trick people into thinking she was actually a nub who just started playing? Tbh, this question just seems like it's there to make bea jump through hoops and I don't like it.

Random thoughts -

I'd like to lynch either Obscure or Rico. They have both been super shady, and I'm not entirely sure why people have civ reads of them. I'm a little more hesitant on OA since my troubles this past day phase, but still.

I'd like people to either entertain sig's idea on a possible reverse of Glorfy/Epi or I'd like us to lynch sig. Either he's pushing a "theory" that he knows to be true, or he's effing bad. I don't see it another way.

What do people think of sig's idea that Glorfy was good and Epi is bad? Why hasn't the Mafia(s?) terminated Epi?

Black Rock - Your second to last post indicated you were getting replaced but your last post made it seem like you're still playing. Derp.

Anyway, if you can remember, please walk us through how you went from...

Black Rock wrote:My new theory (in my head) is that the Cylon/Human relationship is not so black and white and there will be murderers from both sides. Which means the Mafia team is made up of both. I just don't know which roles.

to...

Black Rock wrote: >snipped< I'm fine with Admiral Cains new win condition. Cylons as a whole are evil. I believe this game will likely reflect more of that. More Human vs Cylon. The more the game progresses the more it's looking like that.

About a week had passed between these two posts, and I'm wondering in what way the game had progressed to make you think it was more "human vs cylon" then you previously had thought.

Drumbeats...

On May 7th, you said...

DrumBeats wrote:Good:

JJJ
ika
G-Man

Toastery:

Rico
Vompatti
LoRab

FoS: Ricochet

Richochet has been arguably the most vocal player this game, but looking back, Ricochet has provided nothing with his/her many posts. The only thing Rico did was attempt to discredit basically every other post. This is a very proscum approach because its sole purpose is to reduce town information. Rico has not provided a single town/toaster read iirc. In all of those posts, there is no reason to have no reads at all imo. I don't know meta, so I can't judge based on that, but nothing about this behavior strikes me as protown.

On May 8th, you said...

DrumBeats wrote:Good:
JJJ
Ika
SVS - I don't know meta, but all of his posts have a genuine effort to help the town imo and he brings up a lot of good points.

Toaster:
Rico - Still seen no real reads or anything, just self-defense. This guy isn't even pinging my scumdar anymore, it's going loco everytime he posts.
G-Man - SVS's points on his post are incredibly valid imo. Summarizing is an easy way to feign information and I didn't notice that before.
Obscure/Vompetti - I really don't like how they both locked a vote for seemingly no reason.

On May 9th, you said...

DrumBeats wrote:I'm honestly feeling better about Rico now than I was yesterday.

And that was it.

Explanation?

Continuing my ISO of Drum and ran across this...

Epignosis wrote:

DrumBeats wrote:

Epignosis wrote:Mafia don't need me dead to win. That's number one.

Number two is let them try.

How do you know that?

Try to kill me. I know you want to.

Yeah so I'll ask for Drum again, how do you know that Epi?

DrumBeats wrote:

Matt wrote:I don't know what happened there. Derp.

Anyway, so Drum gets put in the brig after missing the SSWA three times, yet Vomps gets five times.

Does this mean anything?

Be back later peeps.

Probably a duplicate punishment, but it seems Wilgy and 3J I think had the same thing, along with numerous others.

Punishments I know of:
1 - Warning
2 - Penalty Vote Next Day
3 - Brig
4 - ?
5 - Brig
6 - Modkill

3J - I notice you did not post at all on Day 7. Before Day 7, how many So Say We All's had you missed?

By Day Four, 3J had missed three So Say We All's, so if you get the brig for three times, then 3J should've been silenced Day 5.

By Day Two, Vomps had missed three So Say We All's, so if you get the brig for three times, then Vomps should've been silenced Day 3.

These players were not silenced for those days.

Hrm.

So why do you get three times Drum?

Anyway that's all for me tonight. I'll be back in the morn.

To review...

Obscure attempted to make bea jump through hoops.

sig for reasons wants us to believe Glorfy is good. Thoughts?

Black Rock switched her thought process on the Mafia and I'm looking to understand how.

Drum was adamant that Rico was bad bad bad one day, but totally cool wit 'em the next. K.

Drum was thrown in the brig after missing So Say We All three times. 3J and Vomps were not. What does this mean?

RIP, Dex.

You folks are looking at the wrong people.

Good Morning Polo.

*Passes the muffins*

G'morning. *munches on blueberry muffin* We need to get you lynched tomorrow, by the way.

Are you teammates with ObscureAllure?

Persistent little devil aren't you? Um no. No teammates here. I also doubt OA is bad.

S~V~S wrote:Persistent little devil aren't you? Um no. No teammates here. I also doubt OA is bad.

I've got my eyes on the people you read as good on the Day 4 GTH reads, and I'm certain your teammates are among those.

If I recall correctly, I got a bit of a scolding from JJJ for having too many civs on that list, but OK. You're on it

S~V~S wrote:If I recall correctly, I got a bit of a scolding from JJJ for having too many civs on that list, but OK. You're on it

It's funny that only 2 of the 7 people you read as bad are still alive. One of them is a confirmed Cylon who we believe is Civ (DrWilgy) and Sig.

The other 5 were either lynched with your assistance and turned out to be anti-Cavil (Bea, Long Con, LoRab) or nightkilled (Dex, Spacedaisy).

LoRab was killed with lots of peoples assistance. And I also thought LC was strongly anti town, which is the primary reason you suspect me, remember? And Dex totally agreed with me re LC and strongly endorsed his read of me as a civ, why would a baddie kill someone like that? I thought Dex was bad based on Faradays reads, not his own, once he replaced Faraday, my opinion changed. And why would a baddie kill the people she thinks are bad? Counterproductive somewhat, isn't it?

I was way wrong about Bea. Other than that your vote analysis does not hold much water, but all in all, this is way better than your case the other day, and I appreciate the effort and having something I can actually defend against

Do you still read Sig and Wilgy as mafia?

Oh, and you had too many civs on that list because you knew right from the start who was mafia

Polo, what degree of confidence do you have in your read on S~V~S?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Polo, what degree of confidence do you have in your read on S~V~S?

High enough for me to say this: if she's lynched and she's not Cylon, then you can lynch me on the next day.

I am 100% sure she's mafia.

If she is bad that's exciting, because the "whoever has the most townies in the GTH reads exercise is most likely to be bad" theory would be supported.

S~V~S: I'm not convinced you gave bea enough breathing room to have a fair chance of changing your mind.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:If she is bad that's exciting, because the "whoever has the most townies in the GTH reads exercise is most likely to be bad" theory would be supported.

S~V~S: I'm not convinced you gave bea enough breathing room to have a fair chance of changing your mind.

You had 17 civ reads versus S~V~S's 18 civ reads but I've been reading you as civ.

Matt wrote:3J - I notice you did not post at all on Day 7. Before Day 7, how many So Say We All's had you missed?

I'd missed four, but Golden also fell behind on the treason stuff for a while so that muddies this line of thinking.

rabbit8 wrote:Well.... I suck.

Sorry Bea.

How does this result influence your perspective of the game?

Polo wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Polo, what degree of confidence do you have in your read on S~V~S?

High enough for me to say this: if she's lynched and she's not Cylon, then you can lynch me on the next day.

I am 100% sure she's mafia.

Are you claiming to have info? Becasue that would be impossible. And that would be the only 100% you could have, tbh.

And Jay, I kept poking her over & over, and she kept not responding. Since the Nutella lynch. Had she just once poked back, I would have backed off, but she never did, and she posted tons

I think we're at a point in the game where people who are town reading one another need to start coalescing. This lynch was not ideal, and not just because of how bea flipped. This kind of spread is ripe for manipulation, it increases the control the baddies have over the tally.

We can't be lynching people in a 3-3 tie in a game with 16 living players. I grant of course that missing votes compound that problem, so y'all need to get your votes in man.

S~V~S:

How would you expect a civilian bea to respond to points like these:
"You aren't pouting enough"

"You have a lot of posts and keep saying you're busy"

Separately, I would assert that S~V~S's responses to Polo's pressure have been robotic and emotionless. I can understand a concerted effort to avoid blowing up, but everyone has limits and I am seeing this as less authentic. I also know that in my own baddie game, emotionlessness is probably my most significant tell (I'm working on it. ). Eventually that stuff is going to frustrate a civilian, enough at least that it will be visible in the posts. This doesn't mean S~V~S should be suspecting Polo, but I would expect a more animated demand from her for him to put up or shut up. He won't let it go and she has been very accommodating of that.

S~V~S wrote:

Polo wrote:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Polo, what degree of confidence do you have in your read on S~V~S?

High enough for me to say this: if she's lynched and she's not Cylon, then you can lynch me on the next day.

I am 100% sure she's mafia.

Are you claiming to have info? Becasue that would be impossible. And that would be the only 100% you could have, tbh.

And Jay, I kept poking her over & over, and she kept not responding. Since the Nutella lynch. Had she just once poked back, I would have backed off, but she never did, and she posted tons

The only way you could be sure that it'd be impossible for me to have info is if you know you killed the character that can have that information.