Fire Emblem Draft Mafia [Game Over]

[colonialbob]

Damn it all

Have to think about this. I blocked nutella so she didn't kill, and nobody should've been misdirected (except if RDW used his power)

[colonialbob]

[mention]Kenway[/mention] your target? Is important.

[Jackofhearts2005]

if a horse rider or flier killed gwilly, he would die before doing his reverse doctor action, right?

A horse rider killing a grounded character would cause the grounded character’s action to not resolve because he’s already dead.

[mention]Kylemii[/mention]

[Kenway]

@Kenway your target? Is important.

rdw

[colonialbob]

So if RDW is mafia, that leaves Sig or Kyle.

If RDW is town, Sig, Kyle, and/or speedunya.

(This assumes Kenway and I are telling the truth)

[sig]

So if RDW is mafia, that leaves Sig or Kyle.

If RDW is town, Sig, Kyle, and/or speedunya.

(This assumes Kenway and I are telling the truth)

I've been down to lynch RDW for awhile. I also really dislike his current defense that the balance of the game is messed up so he and ID both couldn't be mafia. This doesn't make any sense given that we had a draft.

[rundontwalk]

If you kill me (a town) how many more days until lynch-lose? Cbob is more obviously scum.

[rundontwalk]

[VOTE: colonialbob] aubergine

[colonialbob]

If you kill me (a town) how many more days until lynch-lose? Cbob is more obviously scum.

Please come up with an actual argument thay doesn't rest on the "I'm town" defense

[colonialbob]

Also, I'm not even advocating lynching RDW yet, I'm trying to figure out all the implications of last night.

[Kylemii]

Cbob is more obviously scum.

explain why

[sig]

If you kill me (a town) how many more days until lynch-lose? Cbob is more obviously scum.

It's 8-2
so
Mislynch and mafia kill
6-2
Mislynch and mafia
4-2

We have two phases assuming the mafia is the only ones that kill and I don't use a vig shot which I may or may not do.

I could go for Bob, RDW, or Nutella this phase. However, I'd like to hear why RDW thinks Bob is mafia.

[colonialbob]

If you kill me (a town) how many more days until lynch-lose? Cbob is more obviously scum.

It's 8-2
so
Mislynch and mafia kill
6-2
Mislynch and mafia
4-2

We have two phases assuming the mafia is the only ones that kill and I don't use a vig shot which I may or may not do.

I could go for Bob, RDW, or Nutella this phase. However, I'd like to hear why RDW thinks Bob is mafia.

It's only 6-2

[Kylemii]

So if RDW is mafia, that leaves Sig or Kyle.

If RDW is town, Sig, Kyle, and/or speedunya.

(This assumes Kenway and I are telling the truth)

plz explain this

[Kites]

i still think nutella did something shady on night 8 and lied that she targeted me

yeah bob blocked her last night, meaning she didn’t send the kill last night, but everyone knew bob was gonna block her so obviously she wouldn’t send the kill

[Kites]

the only thing that’s sure is that nutella and rdw aren’t scum together

[colonialbob]

So if RDW is mafia, that leaves Sig or Kyle.

If RDW is town, Sig, Kyle, and/or speedunya.

(This assumes Kenway and I are telling the truth)

plz explain this

If RDW is mafia, that means the reverse gwil doc didn't go through. Because I blocked nutella, she couldn't have done anything, and because Kenway targeted RDW, he couldn't have made the kill. Thus the only two options are Sig killing gwil (meaning he's dead before his power goes through) or you killing him (and then he just regular doctors RDW).

If RDW is town, same as above, except speedunya could've made the kill because the reversed doctor could've gone through.

And as i said, both of these assume Kenway and I are telling the truth. If we're lying, either one of us could've made the kill. I know I'm not lying, and I believe Kenway to also be town.

[colonialbob]

the only thing that’s sure is that nutella and rdw aren’t scum together

Well we also know RDW isn't scum with any of the foot folks, because if he was he would've died last night.

[colonialbob]

the only thing that’s sure is that nutella and rdw aren’t scum together

Well we also know RDW isn't scum with any of the foot folks, because if he was he would've died last night.

EBWOP: Any of the foot folks except Kyle

[colonialbob]

People I'm very confident being town:
Me
Kites
Kenway

So my views:
If RDW is mafia, his partner is Sig or Kyle
If RDW is town, mafia is 2 of Sig, Kyle, speedunya, nutella (with the killer guaranteed to be one of the first 3)

I also believe Kyle is town. That means Sig/RDW, Sig/speedunya, and Sig/nutella are my most plausible w/w pairings.

[rundontwalk]

Can I suggest we Lynch sig first? That way if he's scum town is up one before getting rid of me, and Ill probably die soon by body guarding anyway

[rundontwalk]

Cbob is more obviously scum.

explain why

I don't like the way he's taking control of game but I accept I may be being rash I haven't been keeping up with game

[rundontwalk]

Nutella/sig

Seems like good prospects, especially nutella given her reaction to the night's events

[colonialbob]

Preliminary analysis, begore going back to look at vote trains and interactions:

If we lynch Sig...

... and he's mafia: doesnt narrow down his partner, IMO. It's pure WIFOM whether mafia killed gwil to protect or implicate RDW. That said, Kites can protect somebody from nutella, Kenway can lock down somebody else, and if Kyle helps me I can lock down a third person.

... and he's town: RDW is probably town, and mafia is probably speedunya/nutella.

If we lynch RDW...

... and he's mafia, Sig is almost definitely his partner.

... and he's town, Sig and speedunya are the next top priority and we try to lock down nutella too.

[colonialbob]

Thought: Ring made the kill last night, and if we lynch Ring we're all roleblocked that night so it's a free mafia kill. So if we believe it's RDW/Sig, we should lynch RDW tonight, I think.

(That only applies if we're fairly confident it's those two, though.)

[sig]

Can I suggest we Lynch sig first? That way if he's scum town is up one before getting rid of me, and Ill probably die soon by body guarding anyway

This makes zero sense, you're scum trying to buy yourself time. How is town up one, oh right if I'm scum which you haven't proven. You've hoped from crazy theory to the next in this past phase. Especially with when you said you couldn't be mafia since you and ID both had two lives. You're stumbling and trying to trick town to keep yourself alive for longer.

I think we should lynch rdw, i've been on and off again reading him as mafia all day starting with when he tried to get the scum role up until now with his shoddy defense. AND if he's mafia than I'm 100% convicted Speed is mafia and the Don. Since when dunya was a round she pushed for him to get my vig role.

If it isn't Speed his partner is someone I mentioned as being a potential scum buddy and they're worried I'll shoot them.

[sig]

If you kill me (a town) how many more days until lynch-lose? Cbob is more obviously scum.

It's 8-2
so
Mislynch and mafia kill
6-2
Mislynch and mafia
4-2

We have two phases assuming the mafia is the only ones that kill and I don't use a vig shot which I may or may not do.

I could go for Bob, RDW, or Nutella this phase. However, I'd like to hear why RDW thinks Bob is mafia.

I'm calling it RDW and Bob are one or both if they aren't it's Speed maybe Kenway.

The only thing I've got on nutella is she seems to have not had a solid stance all game and has been blendy, while that's her early game play I'd look more solid reads now. And I still think she redirected me Night 2 which lead to Collins dying.

So actually I think we should lynch in this order
1. Nutella
2. RDW

One of them is mafia I'm hundred percent certain of this. The other option is to do a 180 and look at the more lurky players and go after them like kites.

[nutella]

If you kill me (a town) how many more days until lynch-lose? Cbob is more obviously scum.

It's 8-2
so
Mislynch and mafia kill
6-2
Mislynch and mafia
4-2

We have two phases assuming the mafia is the only ones that kill and I don't use a vig shot which I may or may not do.

I could go for Bob, RDW, or Nutella this phase. However, I'd like to hear why RDW thinks Bob is mafia.

I'm calling it RDW and Bob are one or both if they aren't it's Speed maybe Kenway.

The only thing I've got on nutella is she seems to have not had a solid stance all game and has been blendy, while that's her early game play I'd look more solid reads now. And I still think she redirected me Night 2 which lead to Collins dying.

So actually I think we should lynch in this order
1. Nutella
2. RDW

One of them is mafia I'm hundred percent certain of this. The other option is to do a 180 and look at the more lurky players and go after them like kites.

wtf this post is all over the place

"mafia is definitely RDW and Bob... and speed... so let's lynch nutella first"

nope

[colonialbob]

I think we should lynch rdw, i've been on and off again reading him as mafia all day starting with when he tried to get the scum role up until now with his shoddy defense. AND if he's mafia than I'm 100% convicted Speed is mafia and the Don. Since when dunya was a round she pushed for him to get my vig role.

I'm calling it RDW and Bob are one or both if they aren't it's Speed maybe Kenway.

[...]

So actually I think we should lynch in this order
1. Nutella
2. RDW

Linki: yeah exactly

[colonialbob]

"If RDW is mafia it's definitely speed"
"I think it's RDW and bob"
"Or speed or kenway"
"Lynch nutella"
"Or maybe kites"

[Kites]

@nutella did you send an action at all?

i know that according to the plan you weren’t supposed to do anything but now I’m thinking if you had used your power on rdw for instance you could confirm if bob blocked you

[nutella]

no I didn't send anything

[nutella]

that would've been smart I guess

[Kylemii]

People I'm very confident being town:
Me
Kites
Kenway

So my views:
If RDW is mafia, his partner is Sig or Kyle
If RDW is town, mafia is 2 of Sig, Kyle, speedunya, nutella (with the killer guaranteed to be one of the first 3)

I also believe Kyle is town. That means Sig/RDW, Sig/speedunya, and Sig/nutella are my most plausible w/w pairings.

do you see any magic permutations where sig isn't mafia

[Kylemii]

mafia permutations*

[sig]

I'm very conflicted about my reads atm. :P

[sig]

I'm very conflicted about my reads atm. :P

So let me try to clean up my post.

If we believe Nutella misdirected me, we should lynch her, since that means she promoted early. If we don't think this is the case than she's most likely a civ.

RDW is in my opinion most likely mafia for his various actions already talked about prior to last day phase and for trying to say he couldn't be mafia due to his role. Which is meaningless in this set up.

If RDW is mafia than either Bob or Speed is his teammate.

If we don't think RDW or Nutella is mafia we should turn around and look at other more blendy players which would be Kites and Kenway. I still don't like that Kenway wasn't active in BTSC chat, but I feel like mafia would've killed Kyle or tried to influence him. This works the same for Kyle as it does for Kenway. So both wouldn't be on my list today.

[sig]

And we would only lynch kites if we don't find the other main people, (RDW/Nutella) scummy.

Though and this is a new thought I'd also look at Bob, he's seem to gotten himself really buried in mechanic/role usage which doesn't seem to help much since we have no idea what mafia might have done or if they have any special powers.

Assuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

[Kylemii]

Assuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

............. you're right

I remember giving up on that point because someone (ddl?) claimed to have misdirected Quin's misdirection but.... Nutella is actually the only flower that could misdirect you at all

[Kylemii]

flyer

[Kylemii]

like even if mafia had secret powers relating to misdirection wouldn't they still be subject to the mechanic of movement speed?

[Kenway]

[VOTE: sig] aubergine

[sig]

Assuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

............. you're right

I remember giving up on that point because someone (ddl?) claimed to have misdirected Quin's misdirection but.... Nutella is actually the only flower that could misdirect you at all

Exactly my point, the only person who could've redirected me is the one person who has the means to redirect both as a flier and and with her ability.

Kenway once again voting for me, like he's done on week reasoning since day 1/2.
He tunnels harder than something that tunnels alot.

[sig]

And since it was night 2 nobody else had promotion except for the mafia team.

[Kylemii]

was that night phase an off night for Nutella (assuming she hadn't promoted)

[sig]

was that night phase an off night for Nutella (assuming she hadn't promoted)

Ah good question I didn't consider that I was assuming and still am she was promoted. I also feel like with the mystery of Collins death she'd have said she misdirected unless she was mafia.

[sig]

Actually I'd rather not lynch rdw, if he had two lives he'd have been less concerned about dying when we almost lynched him last time. Therefore he promoted when everyone esle did si he cant be mafia. Thoughts?

[colonialbob]

And we would only lynch kites if we don't find the other main people, (RDW/Nutella) scummy.

Though and this is a new thought I'd also look at Bob, he's seem to gotten himself really buried in mechanic/role usage which doesn't seem to help much since we have no idea what mafia might have done or if they have any special powers.

Assuming they don't have special powers, than it brings me back to my point that Nutella must be mafia since I was redirected Night 2 and only another flier could've done that.

Somebody with a bow also could've done that

Or, you could be mafia

[colonialbob]

People I'm very confident being town:
Me
Kites
Kenway

So my views:
If RDW is mafia, his partner is Sig or Kyle
If RDW is town, mafia is 2 of Sig, Kyle, speedunya, nutella (with the killer guaranteed to be one of the first 3)

I also believe Kyle is town. That means Sig/RDW, Sig/speedunya, and Sig/nutella are my most plausible w/w pairings.

do you see any magic permutations where sig isn't mafia

Oh I guess I missed speedunya/nutella in that second list. And this is assuming Kenway and I are both town, so if you don't believe those then it opens things up quite a bit.

I need to go back and do some interaction and vote analysis and see if that clears anything up

[colonialbob]

FWIW if she wasn't promoted N2 was an off night for nutella/LC (they were on the same schedule)

Spoiler: show

@dunya
Since you are Thief 1, your role is
Thief
Sword wielding foot soldier known for his speed and utility.
Sneaking - On odd/even nights, you may target a player to learn their nationality. All scum are from Badguyia.
Stealing - On even/odd nights, you may target a player to steal their vote.
Promotes to Assassin or Rogue

@lapluie
Since you are Thief 2, your role is
Thief
Sword wielding foot soldier known for his speed and utility.
Sneaking - On odd/even nights, you may target a player to learn their nationality. All scum are from Badguyia.
Stealing - On even/odd nights, you may target a player to steal their vote.
Promotes to Assassin or Rogue

@nutella
Scout - Each even/odd/even night, you may track a player.
Harasser - Each odd/even/odd night, you may misdirect a player to a random target.

@rabbit8
Scout - Each even/odd/even night, you may track a player.
Harasser - Each odd/even/odd night, you may misdirect a player to a random target.

@Long Con
Scout - Each even/odd/even night, you may track a player.
Harasser - Each odd/even/odd night, you may misdirect a player to a random target.