The Syndicate

Dom
Elo
Epi

The fourth I can't come up with. All the others are pretty firmly in the town pile. Someone, I think it was Sloonei maybe, brought up the idea that the cops had a lynch stop and used it to save TH, so maybe its him. Maybe Ika as the seemer made a super risky gamble for no apparent reason and presented his scummate Sloonei to look like a Don. Or SVS is playing a godlike scum game.

I think I might be on to something. I'm looking at the remaining player pool, and aligning a number of cop team dynamics as they must stand in accordance with certain presuppositions. I am just granting townhood to two players who are connectable in some meaningful way in this game, seeing what the resulting cop team must be (if the consensus town reads are accurate), and determining how likely those cop teams are to be correct based upon my own base reasoning.

OVERALL ASSUMPTION FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING: S~V~S, Sloonei, and Turnip Head are town.

ASSUMPTION: Nerolunar and chaindeath are both town. Cops:
Dom
Elohcin
Epignosis
Soneji
CONCLUSION: PLAUSIBLE

ASSUMPTION: Epignosis and Nerolunar are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Dom
Elohcin
Soneji
CONCLUSION: PLAUSIBLE

ASSUMPTION: Epignosis and Soneji are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Dom
Elohcin
Nerolunar
CONCLUSION: UNLIKELY -- This would pair Nerolunar with chaindeath, which I no longer think is a likely cop pairing.

ASSUMPTION: Dom and Elohcin are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Epignosis
Nerolunar
Soneji
CONCLUSION: UNLIKELY -- The Nerolunar/chaindeath pairing is back, and there are also similar doubts to be raised about an Epignosis/Soneji pairing.

ASSUMPTION: Elohcin and Epignosis are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Dom
Nerolunar
Soneji
CONCLUSION -- UNLIKELY -- The Nerolunar/chaindeath pairing is back.

ASSUMPTION: Epignosis and chaindeath are both town. Cops:
Dom
Elohcin
Nerolunar
Soneji
CONCLUSION: PLAUSIBLE

ASSUMPTION: Soneji and chaindeath are both town. Cops:
Dom
Elohcin
Epignosis
Nerolunar
CONCLUSION: UNLIKELY -- Given the events of Day 10, it's difficult to pair Epignosis with Nerolunar on any cop team. That'd be very convincing distancing on their parts.

There are numerous other combinations that could be examined, but here's a start. Does anyone think there's potential in this methodology? I think that if we can agree on the base premises of who make unlikely team mates, and then extract all of the UNLIKELY conclusions from this exercise -- then we have a springboard from which to decide who is mechanically most likely to be a cop.

I'll just say that if the cop team had a secret lynch stop or something of the sort, then town lost this game the minute the TH lynch failed. That is an impossible unbalancing effect that no town team can reasonably recover from, because at this point it would be nearly impossible to lynch Turnip -- as it should be with the roles we can see on the front page. That's bastardized moderating/hosting. I know MP likes it crazy, but I don't think he likes it cheaty.

By all of us voting Nero,we are presuming the Epi & Chaindeath are civs scenario is the likely one.

I'm going to go ahead and fill out every scenario using the same concept I mapped above. There'll be some repeats because I'm going to make a unique post for every player. Sorry that this will get a bit spammy, but I hope I'll be able to draw meaningful conclusions from it when it's done. I'll be nice and use spoilers, though I hope y'all will follow and share your input.

Scenarios pertaining to Nerolunar as a townie.

Erg, EBWOP for visibility in the spoiler.

I'm going to go ahead and fill out every scenario using the same concept I mapped above. There'll be some repeats because I'm going to make a unique post for every player. Sorry that this will get a bit spammy, but I hope I'll be able to draw meaningful conclusions from it when it's done. I'll be nice and use spoilers, though I hope y'all will follow and share your input.

Scenarios pertaining to Nerolunar as a townie.

There is certainly merit in that methodology Prisoner. At this point with so few players, process of elimination is key. I could agree that Nero/chaindeath isn't likely and Epi/Nero to a lesser extent. So for me the most likely scum team is:

Epi
chaindeath
Dom
Elo

Scenarios pertaining to chaindeath as a townie:
If my premises are accepted, chaindeath cannot be town unless Epignosis is also town.

Scenarios pertaining to Dom as a townie:
If my premises are accepted, Dom cannot be a townie unless Epignosis is also a townie.

Scenarios pertaining to Elohcin as a townie:
None of these work in her favor.

I urge everyone to review these and let me know if I made any important clerical errors, repeated names, or some other such thing. Those can throw the whole process.

Scenarios pertaining to Epignosis as a townie:
I just realized I made an error in Dom's review -- He and Epignosis are unlikely to both be town because that would pair Nerolunar with chaindeath on the cop team. So he's in a similar boat to Elohcin.

I didn't notice any errors. Elo looks to be the optimal lynch by process of elimination. She is avoiding this thread and her predecessors didn't look good at all to me.

Elochin

Scenarios pertaining to Soneji as a townie:
If my premises are accepted, Soneji can only be a townie if Nerolunar is also a townie.

The chaindeath/Nero pairing is doubtful.

I don't agree. Why do you think this?

Got replacements mixed up. Dom replaced Mongoose. With the error in Prisoner's match-ups of Dom being corrected to show no likely scenario that hes town as well.

Dom

So with all of that completed: I'm left with only doubtful scenarios allowing either Dom or Elohcin to be town. If my process was valid and my premises accurate, then they're the most likely cops.

Epignosis wrote:

The chaindeath/Nero pairing is doubtful.

I don't agree. Why do you think this?

For some time I did suspect Nero might be distancing/bussing chaindeath for most of the game, but as it has progressed I have lost that feeling. chaindeath's own treatment of Nero especially often seems OMGUS/NO U in nature, and given his newness (I am still willing to call him a new player) I find that a natural reaction to someone giving him a ton of crap regardless of his alignment. If Nero is a cop then chaindeath makes perfect sense as his long term scapegoat, much like people have accused you of doing with sig.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Scenarios pertaining to Soneji as a townie:

Spoiler: show

ASSUMPTION: Soneji and chaindeath are both town. Cops:
Dom
Elohcin
Epignosis
Nerolunar
CONCLUSION: UNLIKELY -- The Epi/Nero pairing is doubtful.

ASSUMPTION: Soneji and Dom are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Elohcin
Epignosis
Nerolunar
CONCLUSION: UNLIKELY -- The chaindeath/Nero pairing is doubtful.

ASSUMPTION: Soneji and Elohcin are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Dom
Epignosis
Nerolunar
CONCLUSION: UNLIKELY -- The chaindeath/Nero pairing is doubtful.

ASSUMPTION: Soneji and Epignosis are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Dom
Elohcin
Nerolunar
CONCLUSION: UNLIKELY -- The chaindeath/Nero pairing is doubtful.

ASSUMPTION: Soneji and Nerolunar are both town. Cops:
chaindeath
Dom
Elohcin
Epignosis
CONCLUSION: PLAUSIBLE

If my premises are accepted, Soneji can only be a townie if Nerolunar is also a townie.

That clears Soneji for me then. That leaves out a scum team that looks like this:

Chaindeath
Dom
Elohcin
Epignosis

I can support an Elohcin lynch.

Linki~

I can support Dom too, obviously.

How much time until EoD?

I want to hear what everyone thinks before I dedicate my vote to this process.

linki: we still have over 24 hours.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:General question for everyone except the two players mentioned: can you envision a universe in which both Nero and chaindeath are town?

I can. i can't imagine them both being scum, but I think two townies can be wrong about each other for an extended period of time. For reference, see Days 1-9 of this game.

I think one of them is bad though.

i don't really understand how you're getting to those conclusions

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I want to hear what everyone thinks before I dedicate my vote to this process.

linki: we still have over 24 hours.

Okay good. Lots of time to figure it out.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I want to hear what everyone thinks before I dedicate my vote to this process.

linki: we still have over 24 hours.

Thinks about what? I really like the exercise you've been doing on the last page. I just got home from work a few minutes ago and haven't had time to review anything in depth, but the Thing that you are doing looks like a good way to approach things at this stage in the game.

I'll state that the premise which I was the most uneasy presupposing was that Nero and chain are unlikely team mates. But I did at least feel strongly enough about it to grant it.

Nero, you'd be well-advised to convince everyone that your game-long push against chaindeath has been wholly genuine. chaindeath, you'd be well-advised to convince everyone that your own treatment of Nero has been genuine.

Nerolunar wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I want to hear what everyone thinks before I dedicate my vote to this process.

linki: we still have over 24 hours.

Okay good. Lots of time to figure it out.

What is "it" and what are you doing to help us do this?

Dom wrote:i don't really understand how you're getting to those conclusions

Please pick out a specific point I've made or conclusion I've drawn that you find disagreeable and we can talk about it.

Elohcin

Decreasing Nero's tally lead.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

The chaindeath/Nero pairing is doubtful.

I don't agree. Why do you think this?

For some time I did suspect Nero might be distancing/bussing chaindeath for most of the game, but as it has progressed I have lost that feeling. chaindeath's own treatment of Nero especially often seems OMGUS/NO U in nature, and given his newness (I am still willing to call him a new player) I find that a natural reaction to someone giving him a ton of crap regardless of his alignment. If Nero is a cop then chaindeath makes perfect sense as his long term scapegoat, much like people have accused you of doing with sig.

I don't get that impression. Nerolunar voted chaindeath once- Day 1, and Nerolunar voted late. chaindeath has voted Nerolunar twice: Day 3 (third vote), when sig already had four votes, and right now when Nerolunar has a large lead. What people post and how those same people vote tell a story.

I think calling a Nerolunar / chaindeath pairing "doubtful" is a mistake.

Epignosis wrote:I don't get that impression. Nerolunar voted chaindeath once- Day 1, and Nerolunar voted late. chaindeath has voted Nerolunar twice: Day 3 (third vote), when sig already had four votes, and right now when Nerolunar has a large lead. What people post and how those same people vote tell a story.

I think calling a Nerolunar / chaindeath pairing "doubtful" is a mistake.

It could be. I really want everyone to pipe in on this specific point. Teamwork is crucial now, and if there's an air of disagreement beyond just Epi's with this premise then it's vital we have the conversation.

It is genuine. He makes the same mistakes I did in my first game, which is writing down reads based on hollow reasoning and then forgetting them, making new reads as he goes along. Its just like seeing myself in fx Arkham, where my teammates were DFaraday and Floyd btw. I understand that the OMGUS is a trait of new players and that its not entirely alignment indicative but put that on-top of everything else and it does not look good in my opinion. If you need quotes for this go look at the case Scotty made on Chaindeath a few days ago.

Im frustrated that he is still alive despite his messy play. I keep pushing because my scumread is so strong and nobody has been listening. In my eyes he has only made weak attempts at recovering his play, not putting in the effort to change my view of him.

Linki - Epi even though my vote history speaks differently Chaindeath has been a major scum read for me through this game. I am against wasting votes so my final votes have not been on Chaindeath that many times as there was no support for it.

I think Dom's initial reaction is rather telling though. Instead of staunchly contesting me for essentially calling him a confirmed cop, he just acted like he didn't understand my methods. He should be fighting for his life and getting angry.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I think Dom's initial reaction is rather telling though. Instead of staunchly contesting me for essentially calling him a confirmed cop, he just acted like he didn't understand my methods. He should be fighting for his life and getting angry.

I agree.

Epignosis wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

The chaindeath/Nero pairing is doubtful.

I don't agree. Why do you think this?

For some time I did suspect Nero might be distancing/bussing chaindeath for most of the game, but as it has progressed I have lost that feeling. chaindeath's own treatment of Nero especially often seems OMGUS/NO U in nature, and given his newness (I am still willing to call him a new player) I find that a natural reaction to someone giving him a ton of crap regardless of his alignment. If Nero is a cop then chaindeath makes perfect sense as his long term scapegoat, much like people have accused you of doing with sig.

I don't get that impression. Nerolunar voted chaindeath once- Day 1, and Nerolunar voted late. chaindeath has voted Nerolunar twice: Day 3 (third vote), when sig already had four votes, and right now when Nerolunar has a large lead. What people post and how those same people vote tell a story.

I think calling a Nerolunar / chaindeath pairing "doubtful" is a mistake.

I think I agree. While it is possible that there is genuine suspicion, I thinkit is equally possible there is distancing. Distancingis more common here than long term scapegoating imo. That is why my guarded feelings onEpi evaporated for the most part when sig flipped civ.

I think the point is too open to interpretation to be taken as fact for the purposes of an analysis like this.

I think that, instead of just making philosophical judgments about the notions of scapegoating and distancing in a vacuum, we need to actually pull their posts out and find the connection if it's there. Their actual posts are the basis of my presumption.

It's also important to note that it doesn't have to be one or the other -- if Nero is town, then he's quite simply been right all this time. That's not an unusual scenario on The Syndicate or anywhere else.

But it still comes down to meta philosophizing. Distancing looks the same as suspicion until after someone dies and you can see what is what.

There is too much supposition since they both are alive.

It may be that distancing is more common here, but both me and Chaindeath are fairly new to this site. Personally Im still not entirely accustomed to some of the various playstyles and scum/town tells etc.

S~V~S wrote:But it still comes down to meta philosophizing. Distancing looks the same as suspicion until after someone dies and you can see what is what.

There is too much supposition since they both are alive.

Can't we draw conclusions based upon imagined lynches/flips though? Pretend chaindeath is lynched and flips cop; judge Nero accordingly. The same vice-versa. Or with town flips. I don't think we can afford to sit on our hands, the game needs to be solved right now or it never will be.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I think Dom's initial reaction is rather telling though. Instead of staunchly contesting me for essentially calling him a confirmed cop, he just acted like he didn't understand my methods. He should be fighting for his life and getting angry.

Let's back this thing up. How or why is Dom an essentially confirmed cop?

Sloonei wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I think Dom's initial reaction is rather telling though. Instead of staunchly contesting me for essentially calling him a confirmed cop, he just acted like he didn't understand my methods. He should be fighting for his life and getting angry.

Let's back this thing up. How or why is Dom an essentially confirmed cop?

"Confirmed" within the confines of my premises in that exercise. My conclusions showed that for both Dom and Elohcin, they don't make sense as townies no matter what other player they're supposed town-mates with. The Dom review contained an error that I clarified after the Epignosis review.

this is the only place chaindeath has played iirc.

509378, it almost feels like YOU are trying to start the alternate wagon. What you say is possible, but so is the opposite.

This was your first mention of Nero in the game:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:Checking Nerolunar's interactions with Fuzz:

Spoiler: show

Nerolunar wrote:I see RadicalFuzz is online. What are your suspects and general thoughts on what happened at EoD and from there on?

I doubt Fuzz was the only person Nero happened to see online, so it could be noteworthy that he felt the need to prod him like this. It was his only such prod.

This was Nero's only mention of Fuzz, and Fuzz never mentioned Nero in any non-OT text. It appears he voted early for ika on the day of their tally duel and the vote stayed there for the long haul. The total absence of interactivity, combined with an uninspiring vote and the specificity of the above prod choice make me willing to call Nerolunar a suspect. I could see him as a team mate of Fuzz.

I guess my issue is that two of the people I trust the LEAST, Soneji & Nero are so on top of this idea. It freaks me out a bit. There is a lot of supposition.

Prisoner 509378 wrote:

Sloonei wrote:

Prisoner 509378 wrote:I think Dom's initial reaction is rather telling though. Instead of staunchly contesting me for essentially calling him a confirmed cop, he just acted like he didn't understand my methods. He should be fighting for his life and getting angry.

Let's back this thing up. How or why is Dom an essentially confirmed cop?

"Confirmed" within the confines of my premises in that exercise. My conclusions showed that for both Dom and Elohcin, they don't make sense as townies no matter what other player they're supposed town-mates with. The Dom review contained an error that I clarified after the Epignosis review.

I suppose I should review this stuff and let you know whether or not I agree.

S~V~S wrote:509378, it almost feels like YOU are trying to start the alternate wagon. What you say is possible, but so is the opposite.

I'm trying to field every possible angle of this conversation to sort this mess out right now. We have a lot of people here at the same time and it's an ideal time. I'm convinced of nothing, and I am trying to find the answers with your help and the others' help.

S~V~S wrote:I guess my issue is that two of the people I trust the LEAST, Soneji & Nero are so on top of this idea. It freaks me out a bit. There is a lot of supposition.

Trust me, I noticed that too. It's one point among a great many to consider, but I noticed.

I think that's an exercise that would be productive for someone who disagrees with the premise that Nero and chaindeath wouldn't be likely cop team mates. Assume one of them has been offed and flipped cop, and then draw up the case linking the other to him. I could very well be wrong, but I don't see it in their posts or even votes. Show me.

I think we're too quick to say what baddies would or would not do becasue they would do anything for the most part. Earlier in the game you were getting paranoid that *I* bussed Fuzz,and the interaction level between chaindeath & Nero isn't even close to that.

S~V~S wrote:I think we're too quick to say what baddies would or would not do becasue they would do anything for the most part. Earlier in the game you were getting paranoid that *I* bussed Fuzz,and the interaction level between chaindeath & Nero isn't even close to that.

I presented the possibility to the thread, but did not pursue it in any meaningful way. There were more people to gauge than just you in that exercise. I also have some understanding of Fuzz as a player and he's a unique one for sure.

Sometimes you can't show it. You could not have shown that I bussed Fuzz, yet you seemed to believe it possible.

You're freakingme out a bit now, lol. So I am going to walk away and think about this. Maybe walk my dog.

Nerolunar wrote:Linki - Epi even though my vote history speaks differently Chaindeath has been a major scum read for me through this game. I am against wasting votes so my final votes have not been on Chaindeath that many times as there was no support for it.

That is not the conclusion I drew from my vote analysis of you.

Why haven't you campaigned harder to get chaindeath lynched?