The Syndicate

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:42 am**

Day 11 was for the most part a beautiful example of cooperation and communication. Day 12 needs to be the same thing to the greatest extent possible. We may or may not have the advantage of numbers, but we have the advantage of information. I'm excited about where we sit in this game.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:56 am**

Disclaimer, roughly four days from now I'll be busy helping run a huge tournament, so I'll be gone for at least all of Saturday, possibly a large portion of Friday evening as well.

J3, what primary emotion do you think motel room's posts have contained?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:59 am**

Is there anyone that thinks I'm more than likely town?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:05 am**

RadicalFuzz wrote:J3, what primary emotion do you think motel room's posts have contained?

I'm struggling to find a word that describes it properly. Not sure it's an "emotion", but I think he has displayed equanimity despite generally brief posts.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:06 am**

We're record breakers.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:39 am**

JJJ never sleeps.

Diiny's content about Bullzeye:

Spoiler: show

Diiny's first mention of Bullzeye's existence came on Day 9.

Day nine. The ninth day. Nine days after Day 0.

He was expressing his fright over Bullzeye's post-mafia-lynch "good result!!!" posts.

Spoiler: show

Emerging from the Choutas mislynch, I asked Diiny how he thought that flip reflected on people and this post was his response. He gave Epi a little crap but acknowledged that his case against Bullzeye was "thought out enough" to justify his off-wagon vote.

lol, a search for "Bull" yielded 3 results on in Diiny's first 222 posts. The last 100? 54 results.

Spoiler: show

He didn't mention Bullzeye on Day 10, which is a surprising thing since Bullzeye was one vote short of being lynched. In this post I present a sort of dichotomy in the tally between Wilgy and Bullzeye and Diiny kind of pooh-poohs the case against Bullzeye as being limited merely to his non-productivity.

Spoiler: show

Diiny went into interrogation mode when Fuzz made his Bullzeye vote and explained why. At least on the surface this looks to me like a genuine effort by Diiny to figure out what Fuzz was up to, motivated by the understanding that some probability still existed in his mindset for Bullzeye to flip town (which would leave Fuzz looking horrid).

Spoiler: show

Reassures Bullzeye that nobody intended offense in their aggression against him and gave him some tough-love advice to stow the quitter attitude and put something meaningful in the thread.

Spoiler: show

Diiny states he'd prefer a Fuzz lynch over a Bullzeye lynch but seems to imply he feels both of them are evil doers anyway.

Spoiler: show

I took a moment to reconsider late in the phase before ultimately standing my ground, and Diiny shooed away my doubts with confident language.

Bullzeye spew about Diiny:

Spoiler: show

On Day 3 I asked Bullzeye what he thought of my LC interaction analyses, specifically Diiny and Devin (I had produced a negative lean on both of them). He lent strong support to my case against Devin, which was of course ill-fated. He was friendly about the Diiny case too, though he produced a question instead of a statement of suspicion.

This was his only acknowledgement of Diiny.

~~~

Conclusion:

It's odd that Diiny didn't find a reason to say anything to or about Bullzeye until Day 9. That's a very long time, long enough that I wonder whether it should be a mafia or non-mafia indicator. Usually team mates find an excuse to interact at least once over the span of three-four weeks. Generally nothing here makes me feel significantly better or worse about Diiny and I am content to maintain my prior positive perspective of his non-mafia prospects.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:42 am**

I forgot to mention that Diiny's Day 11 final vote was for DrWilgy and not Bullzeye, so that could be a point of interest. Diiny, you should describe in the fullest detail what inspired that move.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:11 am**

DrWilgy content about Bullzeye:

Spoiler: show

This is a good opportunity to look back at this mathematical compilation Doc produced to determine how effective it was with five dead mafia confirmed. It looks like a very mixed bag, with the majority of the players at top and the bottom flipping town. All of the mafia members are clumped together in the middle, with Bullzeye being the "most" implicated in the third-worst color. It's difficult to decide whether he should be accused of working this out deliberately to hide the mafia team in the comfortable center because it was mathematical. Chew on it.

- GTH read Bullzeye good on Day 7

Spoiler: show

This came towards the end of Day 11. He gave all of the credit for this vote to the corpse of Choutas. Have you explained what you meant by this yet, Doc? If not please do.

Spoiler: show

I normally don't include posts that come after a mafia flip in these analyses, but this one is probably worth talking about. In the immediate aftermath of Bullzeye being lynched and flipping mafia, right before our eyes, this post was born into our universe.

I'm more suspicious than a confirmed baddie. I'm more suspicious than a confirmed baddie. I'm more suspicious than a confirmed baddie.

Really the only question to be asked here is: How could he possibly have not seen the flip yet, or known that the lynch had been resolved? This came 20 minutes after the flip while everyone else in the thread was celebrating the result.

I'm not necessarily saying this is suspicious. I'm just thoroughly baffled that this post exists. That might imply WIFOM is happening.

Bullzeye spew about DrWilgy:

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye goes into sarcastic banter when FZ accuses Doc of the very thing Bullzeye spent the latter half of this game doing.

Spoiler: show

Bullzeye tried to smear bcornett on Day 6 (the day of the Mac lynch) and supported DrWilgy's efforts against Brian. It should be noted that Bullzeye was the solo voter for bcornett that day while Doc was the first vote for Mac.

That's it. Perhaps the most interesting thing is that Bullzeye made no effort to discuss the matter of DrWilgy on Day 11 when for most of the phase he was in line to be lynched -- before most of us switched over to Bullzeye. There's probably something to be said about the fact that he didn't contribute to that in any way (either to defend Doc or self-preserve vote against Doc). That in itself strikes me as a calculated decision since the opportunity was pretty ripe for him to save himself.

Maybe Bullzeye was so dejected and detached the whole phase because both big wagons to develop were members of his team? This is a point that I think we should discuss in depth.

~~~

DrWilgy placed the 4th of 5 votes for Bullzeye on Day 11. At this point no other player had more than 1 vote to my knowledge.

~~~

Conclusion:

Again, this is mostly inconclusive. I do think think that there is a great opportunity to get a more concrete read on Doc though simply by reviewing the EOD sequence and gauging the climate of the thread. He wasn't far from death. Let's talk about it.

I believe he remains a suspect.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:14 am**

More to come later.

Let's kill more bad guys y'all.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:37 am**

Great to hear that, Russ. Hope you will have a most memorable weekend.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Marsh your last two final votes are just abysmal, why tho?
Because I'm terrible.

Objectively horrific, even?

---

Reads coming up today, as much as time will permit (most of the afternoon, late evening, as usual), if not also as much as the baddies will let me continue to breathe.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:11 am**

MovingPictures07 wrote:

BEST post of the thread tbh. That said, omg - you have NO idea how many TH songs have been on my phone radio these past few weeks. lol

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:40 am**

I think the fact that Bull eye refused to self-preservation vote is notable. Was he not on the cusp of being lynched yesterday and voted for Choutas?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:42 am**

Never mind, he missed that vote.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:47 am**

RadicalFuzz wrote:Never mind, he missed that vote.

Yep, but we also have Wilgy, Marsh and you having voted on the Choutas mislynch wagon, which won 4-3 vs. Bullzeye (the late Choutas, JJJ, motel).

If no teamie is on those wagons, that leaves Diiny and Russ (I'm not it).

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:23 am**

Diiny

Diiny - Black MacCon - Diiny

Spoiler: show

Interactions with LC
-- D1 questions LC for reads outside of his bea case
-- D2 plans to look at LC case, but mentions that he didn't stood out to him
-- Would vote Wilgy as his scummiest read, but intends to secure B24 over LC, after he finishes reading LC
-- (post-lynch) considers that scumsters might have tried pushing the b24 wagon in front of LC
-- (post-lynch) D5 comes back to the idea that Wilgy may have bussed LC and cased him afterwards

Interactions with MacBaddie
-- fends off MacBaddie's assertion that Diiny isn't responding to his accusations (by saying he'd rather focus on who to vote)
-- talks with him about Llama wagon making it unlikely llama is bad
-- questions MacBaddie on b24
-- picks up MacBaddie's thought that Devin might be forcing a replacement request (despite reading it as a joke, at the same time)
-- just like MacBaddie, would rather see a coin flip lynch on D5
-- (post-lynch) dislikes Sig's non-committal stance on voting Mac
-- (post-lynch) plans to check how much Choutas read Mac town prior to lynch Day; later notes Choutas suspecting Mac after all
-- (post-lynch) susses seaside for voting him, then talking about his counterwagon proving Mac was not a mislynch
-- (post-lynch) questions JJJ looking the worst out of the Diiny counter-wagoners
-- (post-lynch) would lynch Choutas for lying about never suspecting Mac

Interactions with Black Rock (all "brian" and "bribri", no "BR")
-- (post flip) can't remember who cased BR, other than JJJ, called BR very inactive

LC interactions with Diiny
-- in reply to Diiny, comments on Roxy, RVSing, JJJ/Epig/Sig Dusk0 votes
-- tangentially includes bea's talk with Diiny in his bullsuit bea case
-- criticises MacBaddie for suspecting and doubting his suspicion on Diiny in the same post

MacBaddie interactions with Diiny
-- votes Diiny initially, due to his noise-making without substantial content
-- notices Diiny not reacting to accusations against him
-- mocks FZ for thinking the Diiny wagon is not worth considering
-- keeps Diiny suspect in conversation on Flowers (?)
-- doubts Diiny would blatantly declare to vote BWT in self-defense, if he'd be scum (?)
-- votes Llama and keeps it there D2 for his reasoning on voting Diiny
-- reads Diiny good in D3 GTH
-- reads Diiny bad D4 when questioned about seaside; later suss's him for early game and post count drop since
-- reads Diiny bad D5, votes Diiny
-- softened on Diiny after D5 lynch
-- would rather lynch Wilgy than Diiny D6
-- wagons on Diiny D6

Black Rock interactions with Diiny
-- says she has no opinion on Diiny (and espers) D5 and would not make pressure votes on either

Votes
D1 BWT for his gameplay claim and timid "non-stance" on LC; later rejects Wilgy's case being influential
D2 votes Llama, despite saying he might contribute to B24-LC wagon; also letting Wilgy off the hook for that time being
D3 votes Rico for seemingly putting LC on top of his town reads, with caveaty remarks
D4 votes Golden, avoiding Sorsha-Devin wagons, calls it later a joke vote, in light of failing to catch up
D5 votes espers to avoid Devin lynch, also for posts on gold, wagoning early on sorsha w. strange reasoning
D6 misses vote
D7 last minute seaside vote, based on Epignosis late post, concerning seaside and Choutas (although would have voted JJJ over brian, at one point)

Side-note #1: Agreed with Wilgy's point on BWT gameplay claim, then flipped on Wilgy looking bad for this vote, then D2 questions FZ on why she suspects Wilgy for his LC, hard-to-catch-up vote.

Read
This is why it's hard to do these reads as a pessimist (and borderline paranoia/what-if-titis stricken). Nothing about Diiny's history is particularly clean; I still remember occasionally reading him town, than being spooked by something he said and suddenly considering him worse; I feel like I'm at that stage again, with all of this in front of me. His take on LC is non-committal and that initiative to vote b24 instead of LC, then not doing it altogether, doesn't look very good - it could read as if a) there was actual temptation to wagon on B24 to save LC, if b24 is good or b) b24 is bad and those are empty words, and the team just had to face seeing both LC and b24 stand as wagons and LC having no choice left but to tie himself up with a teammate. He took the "LC defenders are scum" stance on me, but then avoided two major mislynches (Sorsha and Devin), although contributing to the third (espers). Seaside vote looks terribly wagony, considering the time and the past initiatives to vote JJJ over b24; again a non-stance on voting b24! MacBaddie sussed him hard (although with minor inconsistencies) and Black Rock ignored him for the whole game.

This being said, he was still the counterwagon meant to save MacBaddie, which is a big argument for me in his favor. Again, I think the mafia was hopeful to save MacDougall, I think we may have teammates on Diiny's wagon, we have a confirmed baddie on that wagon (and MacBaddie didn't exactly voted in self-defense, as far as timing goes), so it'd be a cruel and unusual thing to resort to wagoning two teammates - except, again, if Diiny's wagon was civilian fueled and the team had to live up with it. But I'm not leaning on this, right now.

I'd keep Diiny in short sight. I also feel any flip on Wilgy or b24 would generate more context about Diiny flip-flopping repeatedly on them.

Diiny - Floyd - Diiny

Spoiler: show

Votes & Third read

Spoiler: show

Vote record stands at two mislynches (BWT, seaside), one baddie catch (Floyd), two votes placed on civilians (llama, Golden), two unresolved (me, Fuzz), one missed vote.

Entourage-wise, Diiny is now:

-- D2 only player left on Llama wagon, in company of the late MacBadskie and espers
-- D3 in the company of JJJ and Diiny on my wagon
-- D4 solo on Golden (and that vote was a joke, after all)
-- D5 part of an espers wagon in which everybody except Matt is still kicking right now
-- D7 only player left on JJJ wagon, in company of the late BadFloyd and seaside, sig
-- D8 in company of Chou and JJJ, of those still alive, on Floyd wagon
-- D9 in comapny of MM, JJJ on Fuzz wagon

So very recurrent voting alongside JJJ, apparently, but to be honest, Diiny has voted on plenty wagons, so it's not so striking.

Looking back at the first read, I see I've written that a b24 flip would shed more light (Diiny wanting to lynch b24 over LC, then dropping both; then wanting to lynch JJJ over b24, and never capitalizing there either), and right now b24 looks likely civilian killed by the mafia team. If b24 would have flipped baddie in plain sight, I would have suspected Diiny of waffling over a teammate, if not two. The opposite doesn't clear Diiny completely either, because abstaining from a b24 on D2 is what very likely every mafia member did. But idk, this angle is pretty bendy and doesn't look to me so much of the essence as it did back then.

I'll be honest, gut tells me to not stray away, despite all the spotty details Diiny's ISO brings occasionally (particularly in voting), from the evidence that Diiny was counterwagon on a Day when mafia was probably hopeful to save Mac. Mac himself demanded a counterwagon; sure, he pushed for a Wilgy counterwagon at one point, but then went along with Diiny. Reading back on that, it seems more likely Diiny was a consistent choice for Mac to hatch an escape plan, based on previous sussing, and his "shrug *voting Diiny*" post inspires more "meh, idgaf", then seeing a Diiny wagon grow and having no choice but to counterwagon on a teammate.

It feels unnatural to suspect Diiny on other stuff, despite this D6 moment. So again, gut tells me to leave it at that and just harakiri myself, post-game, if this proves to have been an inspired baddie move, to block any susslight on Diiny afterwards. Sometimes it's better to raise your hat if it'll turn out ya got duped, then let yourself consumed by paranoia, at a stage when you can't afford it too much anymore.

Diiny - Bullzeye
-- nada until N9
-- N9 comments on Epig sticking with a Bullzeye vote, instead of joining the main wagons, but in a positive way i.e. giving validity to Epig's case
-- D11 in reply to JJJ, compares Wilgy's and Bullzeye's lack of answering, siding with suspecting Wilgy (for several other things) over Bullzeye (being suspicious only for his lack of content)
-- (page 1 51 search results ayyy) when questioned by me on the lurker baddie playing a lurk card, starts seeing the signs of this
-- asks JJJ for redirections for Bullzeye's case
-- questions Fuzz's tactic to remove-lynch Bullzeye
-- questions me on viewpoint on Bullzeye and Fuzz
-- critical of Bullzeye, demading that he contribute if he's truly genuine
-- questions MM's non-stance on either Bullzeye and Wilgy
-- questions Rico's waffle stance on Bullzeye
-- would prefer Fuzz (for potential backsliding) over Bullzeye, although still seeing Bullzeye as bad
-- in reply to JJJ, denies seeing an appeal to emotion from Bullzeye

Bullzeye - Diiny
-- D3, when questioned by JJJ, reads Diiny as having waffled on voting LC
(Diiny's name appears in two more quotes in which, however, Bullzeye addresses other issues or players)

Read
Well, shit, there are questionable moments in this, but I feel it's the story of Diiny's gamelife: pings galore, yet nothing that can make me doubt a certain event (his D6 counterwagon) makes me unlikely teammate. His D11 initial stances are a bit cold, but I can see traces of growing discontent with Bullzeye's behaviour, to make his penultimate point, where he reaches the "Bullzeye is bad" stance, a little more credible. I still remember that he called my "lurker baddies may employ lurk tactic" idea bullsuit at first, then suddenly considered it, when asked specifically about Bullzeye, but I'd be dishonest to use this against him, since I myself kinda lost my composure to pursue this line of thought, so...

I'm leaning on disbelieving that Diiny, if baddie, would have sidelined his vote and cheerlead the wagon, especially after Bullzeye officially set himself on fire. Mix that with the everlasting D6 counterwagon evidence and with expecting to find much more dirt on other players and all this doesn't really make me see Diiny as top teamie candidate.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:24 am**

Ah, shit, I forgot to put the third spoiler content in quotes. Apologies.

Have a rehearsal, be back in an hour and a bit.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:26 am**

If it helps, I distinctly recall that my vote on Choutas tied the vote yesterday

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:32 am**

RadicalFuzz wrote:If it helps, I distinctly recall that my vote on Choutas tied the vote yesterday

Is that meant to be a purely statistical argument, one in your favor or...against...?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:37 am**

It's additional information. It can obviously be used against me and against the fourth vote onto Choutas.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:19 pm**

Also something to note, Love For Sale is deceased.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:38 pm**

I was just going to ask that, considering that MP has been slightly forgetful on past occasions.

Hosts, is Love for Sale still available for offers?

If LfS is dead, this would point at Strawhenge.

And if it does point at Strawhenge, what does it say of his claim re: MM, then? Something in the role's secrets?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:41 pm**

RadicalFuzz wrote:Also something to note, Love For Sale is deceased.

Nope! Of course I forgot again. I don't know what it is but it never crosses my mind after I make the lynch post. I am just a fail at announcing. :P

Just assume love for sale is alive until I tell you all otherwise. Lol.

PM the hosts to grab Love for Sale's Day 12 vote!!!

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:43 pm**

Woo!

Also, I would ask of Take Me to the River to carefully consider his use of the night power. If we go down to 6 players on Day 12, out of which 1 or 2 Mafia and the SK, we can't afford to have any baddie exempt from lynch.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:13 pm**

DrWilgy

Wilgy - Black MacCon - Wilgy

Spoiler: show

Interactions with LC
-- votes LC bad D2, not reading his bea interaction genuine; returns with a proper case
-- (post-lynch) D2 wagons analysis;
comes up with Sorsha as suspect, although at the same time disputes the idea of another defenders, Golden, being so blatant
-- (post-lynch) inquires JJJ and Seaside on b24 revision, post-LC-lynch
-- (post-lynch) jumps off Sorsha vote after revising LC wagon
-- (post-lynch) finds Russ wagon on D3 "dumb" based on his analysis that Russ is unlikely busser; only sees Russ bad if b24 flips bad as well
-- (post-lynch) quotes a Diiny post in which Diiny suspects him, but addresses Fuzz's interactions. que?

Interactions with MacBaddie
-- questions Mac D4 on keeping vote on Sorsha; further read on his Sorsha statements
-- asks for a Mac lynch. on D4!
-- questions Mac on his Sorsha lynching policy, demands clear viewpoints
-- questions Mac after Sorsha's mislynch on info results
-- D5 would vote for Mac, but prefers b24
-- D6 inquires Mac's targets the previous Night
-- votes Mac
-- defends against him and Mac pulling stuff together in the thread, still calls Mac scum, regardless of believing his SK theories
-- further input on how baddie/SK theories might fit
-- emoji fending of Mac voting him
-- emoji fending of Mac agreeing with Fuzz on Wilgy suss

Interactions with Black Rock ("briefcase", "bribe", "brunette"...no "BR" though; sounds like a doctor alright)
-- reads her bad in D7 GTH

LC interactions with Wilgy
-- congratulated Wilgy on becoming CEO, finds votes for him natural
-- only comments on Wilgy's suss of gameplay claimers

MacBaddie interactions with Wilgy
-- reads him bad in D3 GTH
-- questions Choutas on finding Wilgy good
-- displeased with Wilgy's color vote analysis, referencing a scum gambit
-- D4 OMGUS
-- fends off Wilgy's post-Sorsha-lynch inquiry by saying he should be lynched
-- demands comments from Wilgy (and Sig) D5
-- doesn't have Wilgy in his D5 GTH top 6
-- D5 reiterates that he finds Wilgy's efforts pretty smokebomb-ish
-- compares Wilgy's analysis with Rico's, calling on both throwing BS at him with these techniques
-- jumps on RF's suspicions of Wilgy
-- puts Wilgy in his final top 6 scum list
-- self preservation vote on Wilgy
-- asks motel to vote Wilgy

Black Rock interactions with Wilgy
Nada.

Votes
D1 votes BWT for gameplay claims
D2 votes LC for bea case and flip
D3 votes Golden for coming off the worst in his math analysis
D4 votes Devin for...???
D5 votes b24 over Mac
D6 votes Mac
D7 back on b24

Read
Couple of pinges (his midway analysis leading to no good results or any discernible interpretations; the GTH on Black Rock without any prior mention of her or his suspicions on her; the D4 Devin unreasoned vote), but otherwise I don't feel there's that much dirt in his pockets. Elaborating a case on LC instead of leaving a vote hanging on him reads good (instead of potentially cooked) in my book; his Mac casing feels based on confirmed scumtells, so again it makes me feel he had a good interpretation of it rather than trying to rip a crevasse between the two of them (although he still felt less inspired to go with Mac on D5, compared to D6). Mac's hissing at him feels cooked, tbh. Future doctor in music Rico recommends mildly keeping Wilgy in check, perhaps upon any flip on b24 (which he keeps suspecting) and Russ (which he rather exonerates based on D2 lynch).

Wilgy - Floyd - Wilgy

Spoiler: show

Votes & third read

Spoiler: show

Vote record stands at three mislynches (BWT, Golden, sig), one vote on a civvie wagon (Devin), two baddie lynches (LC, Mac), one recurrence (b24, three times), one unconfirmed (MM).

Vote timing varies quite a bit: midway on LC, rather late on Golden, very late on Devin, first voter on D5 and pretty left field too (b24), first voter again on D6 on MacBaddie, late vote on D7 in the midst of seaside wagon, very late again D8 and D9.

Entourage-wise, he's still

-- in company of four players (Choutas, motel, JJJ, Russ) on the LC wagon D2
-- in my company on Golden wagon D3
-- in the company of JJJ, Bull and myself on Devin D4
-- solo on b24 D5
-- in the company of myself, MM and Russ on the Mac lynch D6
-- solo on b24 D7
-- in the company of Strawhenge and myself D8
-- in the company of Choutas, motel, Fuzz and myself D9

So the greatest recurrence would be...me! But knowing I'm good, I don't get any other voting-alonside-teamie vibe from this, to be honest. Actually, if sig had scum votes on his the previous Day, I feel Wilgy's vote was civilian, compared to others, who look more suspicious in my book. This correlates also well with some of the players (Choutas, motel) showing up together with Wilgy on the LC vote, but showing up on the Diiny counterwagon on D6, whereas Wilgy voted for MacBaddie to go down. Circumstancial, of course, but who knows.

I still have Wilgy down with a few pings - his several analyses that didn't go anywhere or seem to be understandable; his CEO reference subtle but insistent thing; his occasional vote drifts - but not much worse than that. From the interactions, only the Floyd one looks a bit iffy, meanwhile my feeling of his LC and Mac casings and votes remains that they feel proper, certainly better looking that how most of us come out looking for those particular angles.

If there's one thing I'd probably go back and check is how genuine his decisions to drift with his in b24's direction were - especially on D7, when his vote can read like utter refusal to participate not just on seaside's wagon, but any of the three wagons.

Wilgy - Bullzeye
-- D3 has Bullzeye in orange camp in his numerical analysis (Bullzeye is so far the lowest - as in worse looking - confirmed baddie on the last)
-- D6 asks Matt his thoughts on Floyd, Bullzeye, Strawhenge [I actually can't find Wilgy's original post, it only shows up in a quote wtf

]
-- D7 reads Bullzeye good in GTH reads (read Floyd and BR bad in same GTH)
-- D11 votes Bullzeye, stating self-defense (Bullzeye was up 3-2), loving Choutas' posthumous case on him
-- reiterates Bullzeye being an OK vote, although endorses JJJ vote and states that his vote goes for whomever it needs to

Bullzeye - Wilgy
-- D2 baddie Bullzeye sarc snarks at Wilgy voting without catching up his baddie teammate LC
-- D6 agrees with Wilgy on B24 looking shady

Wilgy, are you bad or does this just look horrible for you?

So yeah, the D7 read and his D11 vote going with the wagon looks awful. Bullzeye's confirmed lurk tactic leaves no more space for BOTD'ing Wilgy's similar pace and claims. Bullzeye's snark at Wilgy's LC vote is probably the only piece of evidence that gives me slight pause. JJJ, how did you interpret this moment?

Lynch candidate tomorrow.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:15 pm**

By my clock, this game started precisely one month ago.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:20 pm**

The next RYM game should last for two months. The first month will be Day 0 with JJJ basically asking everyone to contribute their reads and prod them to post cause he hasn't won as a townie for so long.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:46 pm**

A player called Llama would now have probably pointed you to this game

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:48 pm**

Ricochet wrote:A player called Llama would now have probably pointed you to this game

I love how that was my first win at this site, leading the lynch against the only mafia on Day 1.

He hadn't posted at all, despite Day 1 being a month long.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:59 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
RadicalFuzz wrote:J3, what primary emotion do you think motel room's posts have contained?
I'm struggling to find a word that describes it properly. Not sure it's an "emotion", but I think he has displayed equanimity despite generally brief posts.

By that you mean he's seemingly remained calm and collected despite what could've very well been Lynch or Lose and our general situation at the moment? Is that a good thing, or does it unnerve you? Do you feel the same about me?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:29 pm**

Ricochet wrote:A player called Llama would now have probably pointed you to this game

That game barely eclipsed 250 posts in a month. This game has 11 players who have posted 250+ times (including one with 1250)

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:37 pm**

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:A player called Llama would now have probably pointed you to this game
That game barely eclipsed 250 posts in a month. This game has 11 players who have posted 250+ times (including one with 1250)

I realize Minimalism was quirky and people went out of their way not to post much, but this nonetheless adds to the indications that games have become more posty here over time.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:40 pm**

Only 3 hours and 15 minutes remain for Night 11 PM submissions!

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:48 pm**

JJJ

...31 pages...

Click here and perish reading the rest of the novella

JJJ - Bullzeye
-- D3 talks Bullzeye through the GTH mechanics
-- reads Bullzeye good in D3 GTH
-- reads his interaction with LC: minimal damage
-- inquires Bullzeye on Diiny and Devin
-- has Bullzeye in neutral camp on rainbow list
-- N4 questions Bullzeye premature thought process on voting Devin wagoners; expect proof of Bullzeye's ability to change his mind over time; continues to criticise Bullzeye's premature voting statements, regardless of alignment perspective
-- doesn't understand a sentence Bullzeye made on hardly being the only person already focused or biased
-- questions Floyd agreeing with a Bullzeye pot
-- rebuttal to Epig about his D3 inquiry of Bullzeye being normal (asking feedback from anyone); further rebuttal
-- exchange on a JJJ comment about b24, which Bullzeye found acceptable; JJJ asked for more feedback
-- answers Bullzeye question about b24 buddying Golden; further exchanges
-- gives him a D on the Mac interaction scale
-- reads Bullzeye bad in D7 GTH
-- comments on Rico's input on Bullzeye, comments on evaluating the trickier players rather than the outright spotty looking ones
-- D8 considers Bullzeye as lynch candidate
-- questions Bullzeye on evaluating Floyd and B24 wagons
-- reads Bullzeye from Floyd interaction perspectives, sees it as improvement
-- D9 questions MM feeling good about Bullzeye
-- has Bullzeye in green camp on rainbow list
-- evaluates Epig's case on Bullzeye, with interesting points and asking about the meta claim
-- rolls eyes at Epig sussing him for giving Bullzeye the D grade, yet saying nothing about his [Epig's] post
-- continues to inquire player's meta and thoughts on Bullzeye
-- D10 endorses Bullzeye lynch
-- reflects on Bullzeye being responsive, but not productive
-- votes Bullzeye based on new review
-- reads Bullzeye's posts as concessions
-- pressures Bullzeye on his towel throw stance
-- in reply to Rico, leans on Bullzeye over Choutas; rebuttal to MM on that
-- continues to point out the difference between Bullzeye not being able to catch up and being able to respond to accusations
-- spew reviews Bullzeye, still suspects him
-- calls Bullzeye clearly within potential final mafioso
-- N10 reads Bullzeye alternatively as SK (cautious lack of interference)
-- D11 supports Wilgy lynch, also feeling good about a Bullzeye lynch
-- new proposal for Bullzeye to contribute
-- questions motel on Bullzeye vote
-- disappointed by Bullzeye's lack of contribution
-- answers to Rico's inquiry on Bullzeye possibly applying lurk tactics
-- exchange between him and Bullzeye ensues, leading to vote (read page 1 for in-depth)

Bullzeye - JJJ
-- D2? agrees with JJJ's suss on Golden
-- D3 talks about joining JJJ's GTH
-- replies to JJJ's inquiry on Devin and Diiny, asks him about Russ
-- N4 exchange about his premature vote intentions, already laid out in section above
-- agrees with JJJ on not sussing Matt for his Mac SK theory
-- exchange on a kill event
-- D7 votes Floyd, feeling good about JJJ as to not choose that wagon
-- conversation on B24, already laid out in section above
-- rebuttals to JJJ's reads on his Mac interaction, on his D10 and D11 activity and other charges, already laid out in section above

Clear as Day. Scum

Ok, so what I'm seeing is this relationship beginning to go sour starting D4 or so, with a moderate, but adequate ping in Bullzeye previewing his vote intentions with certainty ahead of an actual Day phase. Read based on Mac interactions was strong in suspecting Bullzeye (stronger than mine or anyone else), the only ping being how he turned the heat down a notch on D9, based on another baddie interaction. D10 and D11 pressuring reads natural, stemming from the opposition between JJJ's rallying for contribution and Bullzeye's repeated evasion from this.

In the other section, Bullzeye picking Floyd wagon on D7 and reading JJJ fine reads to me as caution not to suss a player he hardly suss before and vote to lynch a player he would be aware is civ or at least not in his camp. Even if voting Floyd that Day didn't end up leading to a lynch, yet, it was at a point in which Floyd-JJJ were the main wagons to choose from and a Floyd lynch going all the way could have potentially brought Bullzeye a bucket of cred.

At this point, if JJJ truly is a mafioso (and a near cannibalistic one as well), I'm signing my death sentence and kissing my valuables in the house goodbye by writing him off, but tinfoiling this would be like squeezing a tube you're aware it's near empty until a vein pops up in your head.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:03 pm**

I'm a bit confused Rico. Your conclusion is that J3 is clearly scum. But a few paragraphs later you concede it's a tinfoil and would be nearly pointless to pursue. Is this how you intended to be understood?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:09 pm**

Orange is the color of sarcasm on this site.

My work schedule is a mess today so I'm going to be limited in my availability for a bit.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:15 pm**

RadicalFuzz wrote:I'm a bit confused Rico. Your conclusion is that J3 is clearly scum. But a few paragraphs later you concede it's a tinfoil and would be nearly pointless to pursue. Is this how you intended to be understood?

What JJJ said.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:25 pm**

For some reason I thought he was coloring it for emphasis. I need to use my brain sometimes, it's a lovely organ.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:07 pm**

MetalMarsh89

Spoiler: show

Interactions with LC
-- talks with LC about RVS usage
-- comments, in reply to LC, on BWT's choice to be zany, considering his Recruitement past game
-- (post-lynch) calls Russ's D2 suspicion on LC forced
-- (post-lynch) remarks theory on Russ unlikely to have bussed LC without developing it further
-- (post-lynch) case on espers based on LC interactions, finds content weird

Interactions with MacBaddie
-- D1 invites Mac to vote Russtifinko
-- N4 calls Mac, espers and Russ looking the worse in Sorsha wagon, in case Devin is bad
-- D5 comments on Matt's Found a Theory about Mac; initially, doesn't buy that he'd automatically be a winner, nor that Sorsha could have picked a winner whilst already dead
-- very next post, not opposed to lynching Mac
-- comments on Mac's alternative theories being good
-- -- puts MacDougall in his D5 top 6 scum list
-- [url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=734&p=185514#p185514]expands case on MacDougall[/ur]
-- banter talk and mutual suss with Mac
-- asks JJJ to differentiate between MacGoodie and MacBaddie
-- likes Mac's Girlfriend theory (though he is mistaken...)
-- comments on JJJ's meta vouching for Mac being just that... meta
-- D6 pinged by Mac's comments to Rico, votes him
-- critical of JJJ's insistence that Mac is town, considers lynching him or Mac
-- questions Epig lynching Mac over BR
-- questions Mac self-preserve voting Wilgy
-- [url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=734&p=187059#p187059]reiterates case for lynching Mac to JJJ
-- asks Mac for read on JJJ
-- (post-lynch) further clarifications on voting Mac (insincere and inconsistent in gameplay, plus weird Diiny counterwagon)
-- (post-lynch) considers Russ mafia, based on Mac refusing to join Russ lynch on D1

Interactions with Black Rock
-- in reply to JJJ, comments on BR/Russ being a likely team, plans BR ISO
-- D6 places first vote on BR
-- D7 plans to finish BR ISO
-- reads BR civ in D7 GTH :eyeball:
-- reads Russ bad and judges BR wagon dissipation based on BR angle
-- clears... JJJ? in relation to BR wagon?
-- makes conclusions on BR interactions: Epignosis, JJJ, Matt, Golden, splints

LC interactions with MM
Nada.

MacBaddie interactions with MM
-- exchange mutual invitations with MM to lynch low posters (but insists on reywaS)
-- rolls his eyes at MM banter on Floyd being town
-- reads MM good in D3 GTH
-- reads MM bad in D5 top 6
-- calls his read on MM softened on N5
-- calls MM bad in final D6 top 6
-- [rest of interactions are the same pointed out over at MM's side]

Black Rock interactions with MM
-- D5 questioned by MM, says she hasn't decided on top suspects

Side-note #1: questions JJJ, upon his b24 good/bad 6 mafioso role call, how many mafia does he think there still are ...?

Votes
D1 votes Russ based on pings
D2 votes sea based on his two mafia nominations
D3 misses vote
D4 votes JJJ becuase...OMGUS?
D5 votes espers based on case
D6 votes Mac based on suspicions
D7 votes espers based on case

Read
LC interaction is absolutely nowhere and, what's worse, MM's D1 to D4 votes look completely weaksauce. Gets into a groove with the case on Mac, but my feeling upon revising it is that it's not sounding as genuine as, say, Epig or Wilgy building their suspicions on Mac. It's just a feeling, of course, for which I don't think I can rule that MM, based on this alone, tried to cook in real time a Mac distancing. Mac is completely unenganged in what MM thinks of him until he starts reading him bad D5 and D6 - although it was his way of reading everyone bad from then on, probably for massive smoke bomb throwing. MM's BR sussing also appeared rather out of nowhere - or maybe it was linked to Russ? idk, it's not clear. Anyway, lot of delays in reading a two-page history made by BR, lots of linking others around BR's orbit (particularly Russ) and also dat D7 GTH civ read on her.

These interaction would have me place MM in wary camp.

ugh I totally forgot I never did a third read on him...

...20 pages...

MM - Bullzeye
-- N4 comments on Bullzeye bringing up the save attempt argument in Devin vs Sorsha lynch
-- exchange on Russ' potential "host contact" post being bad
-- reply offered to Bullzeye on suspecting Devin or his voters (doesn't see it)
-- exchanges about N4 events, about Matt's SK theory
-- D6 has him as a Don't Lynch
-- D7 reads him civ in GTH
-- D8 comments on Bullzeye's discontent and refusal to give credit to info dumps (in regards to Straw having something on MM)
-- corrects a mistake Bullzeye's vote list
-- D9 has Bullzeye in blue camp on a rainbow list; defends choice as "vibes"
-- plans to read Epig's case on Bullzeye
-- points a meta cue on Bullzeye being barksy as a civ
-- in reply to JJJ, reads Bullzeye's mellow take on Mac as scumtell
-- brings more mafia meta on Bullzeye (LC - Bullz past interactions)
-- pitches in on Choutas' case on Bullzeye, dismissing some posts as either banter, TS-related civ stances or civ barksy meta
-- D10 reads Bullzeye inconclusive, places him in orange camp
-- picks on JJJ for being inconsistent in calling Bullzeye suspect, but not Choutas, for similar reasons
-- agrees with a clarification JJJ makes on suspecting Bullzeye's activity
-- votes Choutas, specifically prefering him to Bullzeye
-- rebuttal to motel on why he prefered Choutas
-- calls Bullzeye unlikely mafia, based on Epignosis's theory [wasn't that about the SK, though?!]
-- points at Mac having called Bullzeye scum
-- , considers Fuzz suspicious for forcing stances out of Bullzeye
-- N10 lists Bullzeye as low-hanging fruit
-- D11 banter vote on Bullzeye when he starts apologising for missing the D10 vote and deserving to die
-- exchange with Bullzeye, commenting on his fears of being lynched being momentarily unjustified
-- derives nothing from Rico's chronology reads
-- banter reply to Rico's lurk tactic dilemma ...

-- [url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?f=93&t=734&p=192608#p192608]what does this mean? "knowing what will result"!?
-- in reply to Diiny questioning players on Fuzz and Bullzeye, asks Diiny to join on a Fuzz vote
-- calls Bullzeye second option
-- wary of Bullzeye lynch because of any opposing force
-- in reply to Diiny, hopes Bullzeye choice is the right one, sees odds of him flipping bad the same as anyone's

Bullzeye - MM
-- randomized vote for MM D2
-- in reply to Rico, comments on MM's death-deserving posts being influenced by events (punishment)
-- N4 comments, when inquired by MM, on his Devin read
-- also in reply to Rico, doesn't have any opinion of MM, hasn't picked up on scumtells
-- lists him in his D6 Don't Lynch
-- D8 cheers MM agreeing on Russ being mafia
-- rebuttals and comments to MM bringing up meta and considering if Bullzeye's posts are scumtell
-- hiss at MM's first D11 vote
-- one more rebuttal along the road on how much he is able to post or not

MM, are you bad or does this simply like you're in deep shit?

M'okay, well, despite the numerous references picked up in MM's ISO, the material that could be used into getting a read out of this interaction isn't that revealing. Every recent vote choice of his comes in package with some posts that make him look godawful, in regards to always choosing a different path than voting Bullzeye. He directly influenced a mislynch this way, back on D10. Otherwise, there aren't other major leads. Somehow, I'd except a teamie MM to make more self-aware, in real time, comments on teammates (instead, during the time Epig developed a case on Bullzeye, he barely noticed it or made plans to take a look) or even force distancing. A few remarks, like the two of them, talking openly about Bullzeye fearing a lynch when he only has a vote being justified or not isn't stuff I'd say it makes sense to strategically, crucially question in public, instead of just clarifying and planning in BTSC. Bullzeye's interaction with MM is pretty cold, always responsive to comments and suss's from MM, but nothing beyond that.

So bottom line, does it look like Bullzeye's flip covers MM all up in brown pie or is it incriminating? The time for "did he didn't he" is over, at this stage in the game, so in theory I could consider him a lynch candidate for the awful votes and posts, but as I've said, these reads are lacking any fireworks otherwise. Curious what JJJ will pick up, on the same subject.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:08 pm**

does this simply look like*

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:17 pm**

Ricochet wrote:-- calls Bullzeye unlikely mafia, based on Epignosis's theory [wasn't that about the SK, though?!]

Yeah, that was in reference to the SK theory.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:30 pm**

motel room

Motel - Black MacCon - Motel

Spoiler: show

Interactions with LC
-- finds LC's flip from bea to sig "pressured and gross", backpedalling
-- comments to FZ on finding LC suss, on his D1 mention of him, on Choutas voting for him...
-- suss's LC based on a comment to lynch seaside, votes him
-- doesn't find the lynch status bad, compared to Epig calling it ""cliquish"
-- defends against Sorsha calling him flip-flopping between LC and Choutas (calls them both suspicious)
-- votes back LC, not feeling b24 wagon, considering Llama
-- comments on tight EoD
-- (post-lynch) questions Choutas voting LC
-- (post-lynch) calls LC defenders dodgiest
-- (post-lynch) creates scenarios in which bea might be teammate or not
-- (post-lynch) questions Matt's read of Choutas being civvie
-- (post-lynch) D6 finds theory on LC setting up a planned bussing far-fetched
-- (post-lynch) rebuttal to Rico on switching between LC and Choutas
-- (post-lynch) rebuttals to Matt

Interactions with MacBaddie
-- votes MacBaddie for CEO
-- doesn't get seaside's suspicion of MacBaddie, questions him what Mac did on D0
-- in reply to Llama, reads Mac genuine
-- questions his switch from Sorsha D4, calls it bandwagon; finds his tactics further muddy
-- D5 finds Mac towny and his theory about Epi most likely
-- D6 still finds Mac town, despite buss theory
-- D6 discusses voting tactics with Mac: joining him on Epig lynch
-- doesn't get why JJJ has Mac higher than Wilgy on his to-be-lynched options
-- in reply to Choutas, would vote to save Mac
-- fends off Rico's thought that him defending Mac makes him look bad
-- doesn't see why he should vote Wilgy, at Mac's request
-- reiterates seeing townmac
-- confused about Strawhenge not voting in any way for Mac or Diiny
-- (post-lynch) rebuttals to Matt on pressuring Strawhenge

Interactions with Black Rock
-- D6 doesn't get why BR is lynch contender
-- suddenly considers BR wagon
-- "could do a black rock vote" and then does
-- reads her bad in D7 GTH

LC interactions with motel
-- accidentally includes motel in his suss'ing of players who talked about Flowers
-- fends off motel's suspicion at his comment on lynching seaside

MacBaddie interactions with motel
-- D2 questions why motel switched to Choutas
-- reads him good in D3 GTH
-- banter vote and reaction to him about switching D4 votes
-- makes an analysis of D5 devin voters, but doesn't bring up motel
-- D6 calls for reads on metal, for being remarkably subdued
-- puts motel room in his final D6 scumlist
-- asks motel to vote Wilgy instead of Diiny
-- appreciates motel's effort to save him, albeit finding them useless, once Russ added a 7th vote

Black Rock interactions with motel
-- only interested in a correction in my reads of him or Mac
-- inquired by him about Choutas, never gives a serious answer

Votes
D1 votes sig for his verbosity and possible slipping
D2 votes LC for suspicions, switches to Choutas for him to explain his LC vote, votes back LC
D3 votes Epig as possible LC teammate defender, keeps it there
D4 votes Sorsha for placeholding, never returns with more reasons
D5 votes espers, only relates to seaside's trio pick from D4
D6 votes on Diiny counterwagon
D7 pursues Russ for being the least brought up by Mac (?); susses seaside and Choutas, votes seaside

Read
So I imagine that I'd eventually have to churn between the LC bussers, unless the remaining mafia is really comprised of nothing but them (which sounds unlikely or just damn foolish); previously, I felt a few details in motel's ISO (such as timing and context of D2 vote) placed him slightly better than the others, but this last revision doesn't make him look good overall. Suspects LC's flip-flop D1, but votes for the same player as LC, partly suspecting sig for the same issues. I actually like him sussing Choutas on his D2 vote - and in fact I am becoming very interested in how a motel - choutas relation would read, upon one of these player's flip - but his own switches can still read like LC early placement and detachment on a left field candidate whilst the wagon was at a halt; I'll keep his comeback on LC still under debate: it can be, like he said, a good read on the LC wagon waning and wanting to stress his preference in that direction; it can be safe, prompt bussing, under a tin foil version. Mac townreading reads as perpetual as JJJ's; his counterwagon moves aren't too great, of course. On the other hand, Mac reads overall quite distant from ever interacting much with motel, up until, what do you know, motel's suddenly suss and scum on D6. Black Rock switcheroo from "what why suss BR" to "yeah let's BR" is just bananas. For some of his other votes I can't find proper reasoning and they look dreadful, given timing and complacency to never elaborate on them. Lynch candidate.

Something extra. Motel through the bussing LC lens

Spoiler: show

Also quick to tell that LC's case on bea comes off as too strong, but this is in reply to llama's questionnaire on whether bea reacted in a genuine way to LC's vote and case on her.
Starts picking on several things sig said afterwards. Quite insistent on it.
Invites, however, at one point sig to join him on a LC wagon. Ironically, neither ever do.
Calls out LC's flip on sig as "pressured and gross, backpedalling".
DAY ENDS. His vote remains on sig from early banter with him. Not only did he reacted strongly to LC's case and counter-case, along the way, but also invited to a LC wagon, yet nothing from this made him put the stamp on LC.
Incresingly suspicious of every move by LC. Votes him.
Switches to Choutas (for his unexplained vote on LC?). Also considers JJJ lynch.
Goes back to LC, picking him over b24.
DAY ENDS.

Well if LC clearly instructed his teammates to take a stance against him, to the point of bussing when things get totally serious, it's simply unnerving. Don't know what to make of MR. His LC sussing looks so on point, but his D1 flipping is, to put it in his words, "gross" and the vote switches during D2 feel a bit as if he was testing the waters for alternatives or for distancing, but then returned to LC, almost as if shit got serious and he was aware he previously sussed LC enough not to do a stupid move and get out of orbit.

Onwards
> First thought of D3 is that people who defended LC's meta are most suspicious: Sorsha and Epi. Goes with Epi.
> Still wants to hear from Choutas' LC vote.
> Sig is suddenly good.
> JJJ lynch being considered no more.
> Also brings an LC-bea link theory.
DAY ENDS. His vote stayed on Epi all along.
> D4 votes Sorsha for placeholder, oh oh!
> Talks other topics, including Mac potentially bandwagoning on Sorsha.
DAY ENDS. His vote remained on Sorsha.

It's 5am and I don't want to die from exhaustion, so I'll stop here and resume later. I've left enough for now, anyway. I should in theory do JJJ as well and might just do him in full, but you have my crazy gut read on him. I'll grant him this though, compared to what I've revisited above on the other "LC critics", he has been rather more inquisitive and going through all the questioning/analysing stages by comparison. Overall, it'd be a sheer craftsman work, unlike anything I've seen, if he truly bussed LC. Gonna mull on this further.

Motel - Floyd - Motel

Spoiler: show

Votes & third read

Spoiler: show

Vote record stands at one confirmed baddie (LC), three mislynches (Sorsha, seaside, sig), one vote on an ultimately confirmed civilian (sig) and three unconfirmed (Epignosis, Diiny, Russ). Interesting ratios, compared to others, I'll say.

Timing and position wise, very variable. Late return on LC, first shooter on Epig D3 (can it be that he wanted to avoid any of the following hot topics: Golden vs JJJ, Sorsha, Rico, Rico vs Golden vs Sorsha?). Not too early, not too late on Sorsha and espers. Late (and twisty, as interactions with JJJ show) on Diiny counterwagon. Rather eager to hop on the seaside wagon soon. Early voter again on Russ. Early-ish on sig.

Entourage-wise, he's in a lot of entourage. A freaking lot. Even on that Epig vote on D3 that looks wild (yeah, I remember his sussing Epig for defending LC, just saying how it looks in the frame of the whole D3 events) he has Russ besides him. I don't think recurrent common voters would create any genuine pings here, tbh.

So here's the deal, I'm currently at 1-1 in my "LC bussers" campaign and whilst catching Mac was sweet, sig hurt like hell and made my confidence in the angle drop a fair bit of amount. If I'm to insist on this path and one or two more candidates (motel, JJJ, Choutas even) would result in mislynch, it would basically mean driving the game into lylo. What if the rest of the teamies are actually more in the neutral camp of interaction; after all Mac, for all the antagonism, didn't vote to send LC to his. Black Rock and Floyd hardly reacted to much of anything about him. Then again, if we are to abandon the LC buss zone completely, what remains of the many LC voters remaining? Are they all civ? Did the rest of the mafia really go on completely different paths that Day?

Motel's currently appearing to have been part of a lot of mislynches, a lot of wagons that are still enigmatic and one baddie lynch. Curiously, the only tiny thing that I'm leaning genuine is exactly something motel said about his action to come back on LC on D2: seeing the other wagons (b24 and llama) take over LC and deciding he doens't like those and that he is go back to his. It puts me in doubt that a mafioso would punish his teammate when hope is on the horizon. But it's only a minor doubt.

Then again, how to interpret that regarding Mac's counterwagon D6? If he's really civvie, it means he got dragged up in that wagon by other players (erm which leaves Choutas and JJJ). And he flippy-floppied a lot on that wagon.

So first read of him under my "LC busser" angle made me feel wary of him - say, weakest among Mac and sig. Full interaction reads only made me feel worse. Gut right now tells me to pursue the prospect of voting for his lynch - despite the caution thought in the back in the head about how the LC bussing record stands right now.

What do others think of motel, at this point in this game? Or of what I'm reading on him?

Motel - Bullzeye
-- N4 disagrees with Bullzeye's idea that Devin wagon was a save attempt, questions his views or suspects based on this; later agrees with his judgement, but insert caveat of Devin needing to flip bad in order for any possible confirmation [to be noted, Mac comes in afterwards and mocks motel's input]
-- D7 reads Bullzeye bad in GTH
-- D9 has Bullzeye in colorless orange camp on rainbow [sic] list
-- D10 votes Bullzeye (2nd vote, pushes Bullzeye 2-3 against Chou) for "classic low scum effort"
-- quotes a Russ post in which he suss's him and Bullzeye "for posterity"
-- N10 questions MM prefering Choutas to Bullzeye
-- D11 finds it weird Bullzeye hasn't received votes yet
-- in reply to Diiny, calls Bullzeye top suspect, votes him
-- confused by JJJ's question on Bullzeye's posts being scrutinizable through a townie lens
-- eager to judge Russ based on Bullzeye flip
-- late phase suss on Fuzz's rationale for voting Bullzeye

Bullzeye - motel
-- N4 talk I already highlighted
-- otherwise, nada

Well what a surprise, motel doesn't impress me yet again. Where's the reasoning or background on suddenly reading Bullzeye bad on D7? Where's the reasoning or background for picking up the "classic low scum effort" charge on suss'ing Bullzeye. Where's the reasoning or background for calling Bullzeye top suspect? Granted, his D10 activity, questioning and voting could read as inspired, rather than being anything forced in it. For instance, why bring Bullzeye in D10 wagon contention, as a teamie, if the suspicions on him are still slow burning and Choutas is ahead in the lead? Why throw full shade on him, when the opportunity arises to ponder on the alternative (JJJ's point on applying a townie lens to his activity)?

Idk, C+ for effort and solid exposed material, as always, but purely judging by the votes and stances in the last two cycles, I'll admit it looks slightly better for him.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:31 pm**

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:-- calls Bullzeye unlikely mafia, based on Epignosis's theory [wasn't that about the SK, though?!]
Yeah, that was in reference to the SK theory.

Oh, I forgot. SK is "good" in your thought process.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:49 pm**

I won't state what I think of this yet, lest I misunderstand it and add fuel to the fire, but can you clarify what you mean with this MM?

Bullzeye, are you keeping your cards close to your chest knowing what will result if you are lynched?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:00 pm**

RadicalFuzz wrote:I won't state what I think of this yet, lest I misunderstand it and add fuel to the fire, but can you clarify what you mean with this MM?

Bullzeye, are you keeping your cards close to your chest knowing what will result if you are lynched?

Bullzeye was wasn't saying much nor giving us anything to work with. I decided to be blunt and ask him if he was intentionally being murky with his statements so as to not reveal anything upon his lynch.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:00 pm**

Night 11 post will be up in about an hour.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:12 pm**

RadicalFuzz

Fuzz - Black MacCon - Fuzz

Spoiler: show

Interactions with LC
-- (post-lynch) suspects JJJ of Jesus toast analysis post-LC-lynch, without including new info

Interactions with MacBaddie
-- D4 asks Mac to vote JJJ with him
-- suss's Mac N4 on offer to step up the game (context?)
-- D5 disbelieves parts of Matt's theory on Mac
-- second time around, finds Matt's explanation logical
-- disapproves of Mac's behaviour
-- further conversation with JJJ including his reads on Mac
-- says that he sees what Mac is "putting down", without deciding what he thinks about it
-- D6 considers Mac lynch for his Sorhsa lynching policy
-- questions sig's "mislynch trend" comment on Mac
-- calls Wilgy scummier than Mac

Interactions with Black Rock
-- reads her bad in D7 GTH

LC interactions with RadicalFuzz
Unavailable due to death.

MacBaddie interactions with RadicalFuzz
-- banter on N4 with RF sussing him; repeatedly, in fact
-- D6 doesn't follow on something RF said
-- starts sussing RF for asking weird questions and not doing actual reads
-- cheers on RF sussing Wilgy
-- calls RF scum; retracts afterwards, calls him town

Black Rock interactions with RadicalFuzz
-- meany emoji at something RF said about dealing with low posters

Votes
D4 votes JJJ for finding his reads jesus-toasty
D5 votes espers...??
D6 votes Wilgy, case
D7 votes Wilgy again

Read
Awfully breve. A few recurrent pings as with others (sussing Mac but never considering to vote him; a vote for espers for which I can't find the reasoning; and my favorite is that GTH baddie read on BR a Day before her modkilling; it's like everyone had psychic powers or something about her, without any previous mention), but not much else. MacBaddie pretty much told him to take a hike with his sussing most of the times and attempted a bit of smear, which he then corrected. Strictly from the interactions POV, this is as close to a neutral read as it can get. I don't know why he recurrently asks to be read, kept in check or even found bad (unless I imagined this...?!), but I actually have him in mind as someone.

Fuzz - Floyd - Fuzz

Spoiler: show

Votes & third read

Spoiler: show

Fuzz - Bullzeye
-- D5 odd exchange on JJJ's "finding town boring" questioning
-- questions Bullzeye for thoughts on JJJ asking the mods stuff about espers' status
-- N5 asks Bullzeye to read him
-- banter with Mac's posts where he calls both Bullzeye and Fuzz scum, but then reverts on Fuzz
-- reads him good in D7 GTH
-- D9 confused by Bullzeye's statements to pick up in the weekend...on a Monday
-- rebuttal to MM on his D5 request that Bullzeye read him
-- D11 names Bullzeye among top three suspects, for strange interactions with other players
-- picks up on Bullzeye's defeatist posts, elaborates view on it being a scumtell
-- votes Bullzeye to clear the tie and push for a beneficial removal of him, regardless of alignment
-- clarifications, elaborations, rebuttals (all on his first page of history, currently)
-- rebuttals on ever calling Bullzeye names, hence forcing an appeal to emotion from him

Bullzeye - Fuzz
-- D3 welcomes him to the game, says he doesn't envy his catch up process
-- D5 exchange already mentioned
-- N5 fends off Fuzz's question about what he disagrees with him on
-- D6 has him on his Don't Lynch list

Lack of fireworks here as well. Early talk seems to have come and gone. I can sort of see a natural progression into suspecting Bullzeye's non-activity trend. I won't deny I felt Fuzz's tactic behind dealing with Bullzeye felt risky (and a bit reminiscent of a baddie doing liability lynch requests in the past, too), but it seems to have paid off. I can't say I have a tinfoil read on this, although the wagon was starting to inflate. RF pointed earlier today at his D10 vote timing, but there's nothing on Bullzeye, so at best I have to go back and see if the thoughts on voting Choutas or any thoughts on not voting motel were present.

One peculiar thing is that Fuzz is probably the only player Bullzeye didn't reply back. No rebuttals, no sentiment, no compassion. Makes me wonder why.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:16 pm**

The way I see it if Bullzeye was town who gave up that was the game anyway. That's most likely a flawed mindset, but that discussion is for another time since nobody else is going to give up. Right?

Thanks for the clarification MM.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:50 pm**

Russtifinko

Russ - Black MacCon - Russ

Spoiler: show

Russtifinko

Interactions with LC
-- didn't find JJJ's case on LC compelling, but finds Matt's analysis of Sorsha defending LC meritous (fitting for how he'd imagine a teammate acting)
-- eyeballs LC on waffling to say something about Sorsha
-- feels better about LC given that Syndicateers are vouching for his behaviour
-- (post-lynch) D5 doubtful of LC being bussed (replies to a MacBaddie case on splints...?); retracts after misunderstandinb
-- (post-lynch) doubted Mac was bad based on his interactions with LC
-- (post-lynch) doubts JJJ would have bussed LC

Interactions with MacBaddie (goddammit, one page came with 110 results on "Mac" kill me now)
-- doubts voting Mac on D2 would be a good idea; reads him genuine
-- touches down upon a Mac rebuttal on lynching seaside D2 without saying much
-- suddenly sees Mac as bad for his Sorsha lynch policy
-- inquires JJJ on his D5 stance on Mac
-- dislikes Matt's theory on Matt entirely
-- feels better about him after rebuttals, logic reads him as civ despite his flusterings, gut reads him as bad
-- back to sussing him: for SK centered policy, for being criticised and suspected by him; would be completely down with a Mac lynch
-- questions Choutas on openly calling out Mac and Wilgy as mafia interacting
-- still needs convincing on Mac, upon voting BR
-- still reads Mac as scummy, but doubts himself, due to Choutas and JJJ "believing in him"
-- clarifies his views on Mac
-- feels worse about Mac for pushing contrived Epig SK theory
-- full case on Mac

Interactions with Black Rock
-- questions BR on how would LC play as baddie, in relation with his teammates
-- reads her bad N5
-- intended to vote her, but doesn't (after something posted by fingersplints?)
-- likes Matt's suss on Mac not seeing anything on BR; calls BR and Mac biggest suspects

LC interactions with Russ
-- supports Russ on catching up before deciding
-- replies to him that he has no read on Sorsha
-- tangentially agrees with fellow baddie McBaddie that a lurker lynch could be the way to go (which included Russ at that time)

MacBaddie interactions with Russ
-- D3 considers Russ wagon to be scum driven; critical of Llama, Bullzeye for this, only reasonable vote he sees is Epig's
-- points at Russ casting a deciding vote and soft casing him, rather dismissively
-- reads Russ "gud" N5...?
-- total bark at Russ on D6, plans analysis of him and BR
-- finds Russ making excuses for not lynching a teammate (BR)
-- finds Russ a possible teammate trying to avoid a mislynch, whilst at the same time not seeing anything wrong with BR
-- puts Russ in his final top 6 scumlist
-- dispirited after Russ votes him

Black Rock interactions with Russ
-- suss Russ for never making up his mind about LC
-- suss's Russ for his late D4 Mac suss without changing his vote

Votes
D1 votes Matt for pushing the BWT wagon
D2 votes Sorhsa for pushing LC to people who don't know LC, but it's a misunderstanding
votes LC afterwards, mild suspicion, but not wanting to risk a tie
D3-4 attachment to voting Sorsha; D4 late on starts suspecting Mac, but makes a statement that it's too late to change the vote
D5 votes espers; could be partial OMGUS; considers switching, but never does
D6 placehold vote on BR
D6 finally votes Mac - case, behaviour, everything
D7 motel room for pushing a JJJ lynch despite not reading him bad

Read
Jesus Christ, what chunky posts. Anyway, this has definitely piqued my interest. I think we're talking real extremes with Russ and any call on him being bad basically means he made very well prepared distancing and team-sussing. Seriously, this would be top class work - his suspicions always sound important and have gravity, but could also be only a bunch of reading and big posting done to constantly look like he's pressuring alongside town. The latter is of course the paranoia/tin-foil version of his activity, but you get the point. The LC interaction is barely made up of pokes, to which LC treated him kindly. The Mac and BR exchanges seem far more important, at this stage. He's the player with the most input on BR, so far, and the sussing seems to be mutual. Mac totally went sour on him on his last Day or so in this game. All of this could read as preparations for afterlynch cred. I'm not getting a clear sense if Mac and BR hissed at townRuss hunting them or cooked antagonism with him for posterity, but it's definitely the subject around which one would have to make up his mind.

Normally, Russ's LC and Mac vote would have me in disbelief that he is teamie material, especially given what I long said about Mac wagon not being a done deal, therefore enough so that the teammates would opt to salvage the situation, but it doesn't mean it's not tinfoilable: Russ did after all fix himself in a spot to lynch Mac based on elaborate case making, out of which it would have been rather hard to move away and do something that would look far worse in retrospect. Even in this section, however, the Sorsha two-Day long mislynch (with the old "LC defenders must be scum" that got us nothing during that interval), paired with refusing to switch to Mac at a late point in the D4 game, speak against him.

I'm considering it.

Votes & "third read" (never managed Floyd read, but this is in sync with others)

Spoiler: show

Russ - Bullzeye
-- quotes Bullzeye agreeing with JJJ on not suspecting Matt for his SK theory (...so I suppose it's just agreeing with the both of them, via quoting)
-- exchange with fingersplints in which fingersplints also mentions wanting to discuss a Golden/Bullzeye connection (can't tell from context, though, if he request thoughts from Russ on this)
-- D9 comments on Bullzeye's vote for him simply being not very sporting and having no idea of any reason behind it
-- ...(seriously? suddenly 69 results on page 1?!...grunt)
-- comments on Bullzeye turning barksy when bad, based on his [Russ'] experience (but means this without any offending)
-- applauds MM's Monty Python find, plans to re-read Bullzeye
-- suspects...JJJ? on pushing too much Bullzeye when he declared going away for a few days
-- confused by Bullzeye saying he's leaving, but reappearing
-- D10 read on Bullzeye, finds him drumming without developing, potentially SK for it
-- suspects him more and more after more non-commital pings
-- of all the burn out claimers, considers Bullzeye the worse looking, because of his lack of original contributions
-- asks, however, Choutas to convince him that Bullzeye is the way to go; votes motel, otherwise
-- hisses more at Choutas suspecting him as Bullzeye's teammate
-- N10 wants to take a closer look at Bullzeye, after input (read?) from Rico
-- D11 reads Bullzeye overwhelmed, but looking bad mafia-wise, for no valuable content
-- reads Bullzeye most likely to be bad out of Fuzz and Wilgy
-- prefers Bullzeye lynch over Fuzz
-- stamp of approval on Bullzeye lynch

Bullzeye - Russ
-- D3 votes Russ based on a case by FZ (after questioning it at first, then considering it)
-- N3 when Matt reads Russ "anti-Mafia", wonders aloud what "anti-Mafia" means, considering the only faction neither mafia or civ is the SK
-- D4 continues to consider Russ
-- rebuttals to Matt include his Russ vote choices
-- switches from Russ after lynch chances are non-existent
-- N4 eyes Russ as possible Devin saver
-- rebuttals on his decided viewpoints
-- suss's Russ's "host contact" post as baddie indicator
-- I'm just gonna post "suss's Russ's" for the sheer sounding feel of this combination
-- D7 cheers MM suspecting Russ
-- D8 votes Russ, for old suspicions (leaves a "I wouldn't mind lynching Floyd" on a Day in which Floyd is lynched)
-- D9 votes Russ again
-- disagrees with Russ' meta characterizations of him

Disclaimer: I'm exhausted again. There's a lot of stuff here that probably requires me to go over it again, so I'll do that tomorrow, if I'm still alive of course. This interaction is quite interesting. For one, it's probably the most Bullzeye interacted with someone alive. The interaction itself being very adversarial is probably what needs to be scrutinized. Some points seem like easy attaching to a possible civ's case (FZ, not confirmed, but I feel she was) and to the "Devin must have been saved" suss mentality (which is now proven to have been nefarious). It's uber-distancing, if Russ is his teammate. As for D11, I'll have to modify on what I said about Fuzz being the only player with unreturned suspicion, since Bullzeye stopped replying to Russ's points as well - which is odd, considering the antagonism otherwise. Wouldn't a baddie Bull be motivated to write back at a player like Russ? Is it late EoD intentional withholding?

Russ' interaction with Bull took a real long while (almost like Diiny's, except for a few early mentions), but my first impression is that the case making flow feels more natural than, in fact, his case making on LC or Mac ever was. There's a big hiccup, however, on D10, I can't tell if out of too much disbelief in Choutas('s case?) or in anger of Choutas suspecting both him and Bullzeye or rather for more hidden reasons to never quite pull the trigger... This should also be scrutinized by everyone, methinks.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:54 pm**

And now, Fargo time.

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:56 pm**

Night 11: People Like Fuzz

Night 11 has ended.

????? has survived a kill attempt by Thank You for Sending Me an Angel.
????? has survived a kill attempt by Psycho Killer.
RadicalFuzz has been killed by Psycho Killer.

It is now Day 12. You have 48 hours to lynch someone.

The Syndicate

[END] Talking Heads Mafia (RYM #90)

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