Re: Twin Peaks Mafia {DAY 3}
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:26 am
What confuses me more is the assumption that there are 3 baddies. Why would day 0 count as an even day?
Murder, Mayhem, and Mafia
https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/
Yes, he did. I asked that specific question and he confirmed. However, I'm starting to suspect that the recruits don't have BTSC with each other or with BOB, which makes things a little easier for us.Kate wrote:I think INH confirmed it in the thread.Russtifinko wrote:I'm confused by the assumption that each recruit gets their own NK. I was reading that power as they get a communal NK instead, what makes you guys think they could have 2?
He did confirm this? I must have missed it. That seems awfully weighted that each recruit would be able to NK. Any way you can find and pull this? Maybe I'll look myself, but I need to start catching up in VGM over on RM, and my task in catching up over there is much more intimidating and is at least twice as many pages. I also need to study a lot today.thellama73 wrote:Yes, he did. I asked that specific question and he confirmed. However, I'm starting to suspect that the recruits don't have BTSC with each other or with BOB, which makes things a little easier for us.Kate wrote:I think INH confirmed it in the thread.Russtifinko wrote:I'm confused by the assumption that each recruit gets their own NK. I was reading that power as they get a communal NK instead, what makes you guys think they could have 2?
Zero is an even number. In other words, its parity—the quality of an integer being even or odd—is even. Zero fits the definition of "even number": it is an integer multiple of 2, namely 0 × 2. As a result, zero shares all the properties that characterize even numbers: 0 is divisible by 2, 0 is surrounded on both sides by odd numbers, 0 is the sum of an integer (0) with itself, and a set of 0 objects can be split into two equal sets.Kate wrote:What confuses me more is the assumption that there are 3 baddies. Why would day 0 count as an even day?
I had to remove one of the quotes bc it was more than 5.insertnamehere wrote:Each get's an NK.thellama73 wrote:I had another question about the recruits that I think is unclear from the role descriptions. Does EACH of Bob's recruits get a night kill unless THEY receiev a vote, or do the recruits kill as a team unless ANY of them gets a vote?insertnamehere wrote:No, they have to kill someone every night, unless they get a vote.S~V~S wrote:Confirmed civvies??Snow Dog wrote:
Oh so pingy. The Llama and I are confirmed civvies. What have you got as evidence? Even if he was posessed last night you still have nothing to go on.
What I would assume is Nevin checked you for James, and did not die either night, so there is a 50% chance you are not BOB. ??
I am on phone, did INH answer my question about the baddies being able to choose not to kill?
Ok. So given that, are we assuming that:Vompatti wrote:Zero is an even number. In other words, its parity—the quality of an integer being even or odd—is even. Zero fits the definition of "even number": it is an integer multiple of 2, namely 0 × 2. As a result, zero shares all the properties that characterize even numbers: 0 is divisible by 2, 0 is surrounded on both sides by odd numbers, 0 is the sum of an integer (0) with itself, and a set of 0 objects can be split into two equal sets.Kate wrote:What confuses me more is the assumption that there are 3 baddies. Why would day 0 count as an even day?
Since definitions can change, another approach is to set them aside and consider how zero fits into the patterns formed by other even numbers. The parity rules of arithmetic, such as even − even = even, require 0 to be even. Zero is the additive identity element of the group of even integers, and it is the starting case from which other even natural numbers are recursively generated. Applications of this recursion from graph theory to computational geometry rely on zero being even. Not only is 0 divisible by 2, it is divisible by every integer. In the binary numeral system used by computers, it is especially relevant that 0 is divisible by every power of 2; in this sense, 0 is the "most even" number of all.
Its a delicate balancing act Llama, you must understand that. We need to weigh the risk of lynching someone (who could be a civ for all we know) against the possibility of preventing a NK or two. Its just not as cut and dry as you're presenting it.thellama73 wrote:Thanks for your thoughts, MP. I am always glad when you rejoin a thread because I think you have good insights. I will take much of what you said into consideration.
I agree that it would have made sense for Bob to recruit either me or Snowy, but he did not recruit me. I am open to the idea that it might be snowy, but I think it should be clear that I have been arguing the most sensible strategy for the civvies, which everyone proceeds to ignore. They all say they are nervous about leaving people uncovered, but no one has explained why it's okay to allow the baddies to completely control all the lynch votes.If there is a night kill tonight, I will probably be voting for Roxy, because the way she has been ignoring that last point seems really suspect to me.
Lots of linki
MP, I'm glad you are back. But, no, Im not bad. And I"m still baffled over the Nev lynch. And I'm still not convinced he wasn't Catherine. Either that or there is a ton o shit going on in this game that I'm not privy to.MovingPictures07 wrote:Wow, I'm done! Yay!![]()
Okay, so here are my thoughts. That was quite a bit to take in all at once. Mata's role seems pretty evident to me, but there are other possibilities. She could be recruited. I honestly don't know if she is. I suppose you could say that about anyone, but there have been two recruits. One thing I thought of is... if we want to try to figure out the recruits, why not put ourselves in Bob's shoes and think about, at the end of each Day since that seems to be when he recruits, who would have seemed most attractive to recruit? I know that can't be all the consideration, but it's something, and coupled with whether we see an NK tonight or not could prove to be helpful.
Speaking of which, INH's clarification was VERY helpful because if we see no NK, that means Vomps, BWT, Rox, and Russ are not recruits. If we do see an NK, I think lynching one of them would make the most sense.
Now as to my reads on people... I have duly noted in past games that Kate and S~V~S can read each other extremely well. However, this game is a weird beast, because Bob is the only true "baddie", so I feel reads shouldn't be taken the way they should in normal games. It's very possible after Kate's behavior throughout the game, she would have been an attractive recruit for Bob at the end of Day 2, especially since Bob would have to know Nevinera was not on his team. At least I would think so. Does any of this make sense to anyone else?
I also have to state that I heavily agree that nailing people's roles down in thread is BAD. It gives Bob more info about who people are, and maybe even more importantly, who other people aren't. This being said, I think Nevinera's way he went down was obviously noob syndrome. What I find notable is how Kate was totally okay with role hinting and so was Mata. Both of these players should know better. Mata didn't need to even hint at her role, given none of us knew what it probably meant until we saw the lynch result, and even then, I'm sure it could have been easily ascertained without her saying anything. So why did she say it? Not sure what that means, and not sure I necessarily find her suspect for it, but I'm not understanding why giving Bob more information is a good idea and why it seemed like no one really called either of these people out for it. I could be wrong since I did try to read as much as possible but inevitably skimmed a few pages.
What I thought was weird was how if I remember correctly I was the first to point out suspicions of BF and Nevinera. Yet who has gotten lynched the last two days and I haven't been around at all to comment? I realize those were people I had seen most as likely bad/Bob at the time, but I honestly was far from sure on either of them, and know that I made my past two lynch votes with next to no knowledge of what was actually going on in this thread for lack of time. I find it weird, for that reason, that the candidates I thought most were bad based on my incredibly low amount of knowledge were the ones that got lynched. What I found even weirder was how Kate was so sure and then chalked it up to bad info, S~V~S defended her, and then everyone accepts that explanation. Even I admit I accept that explanation because I know for a fact how well they can read each other. But let's consider this. If one of them were Bob, I think the prospect of recruiting the other on Day 0, assuming he recruited then (do we have absolute confirmation from INH of this? It seems reasonable though), would have been very attractive.
As a result, I'm not sure I trust Kate or S~V~S. I could see them both being civvie, but in catching up, the person who most caught my attention for strange behavior was Kate, followed by Vomps (what a surprise). I think she could be Bob. If so, she's been playing a genius game.
That being said, I don't know if that's true. Here's how I am trying to pinpoint my suspicions -- into Bob or likely recruit or likely not Bob and not recruited. I think Vomps could be either. Kate could be either because honestly she would have been an attractive candidate to recruit on either day due to her very strong thread presence. S~V~S I don't know, I think she's probably likely civvie because that's how I'm reading her, unless Kate is bad, then she could very well be Bob or the recruit by association given how she's defended Kate, but she still just could be wrong on that front. Snow Dog and llama both seem very clear of NOT being Bob, more than anyone else (besides myself, since I know I'm not Bob), though they both would have been attractive candidates for Bob to recruit by the end of Day 2 given Nevinera's info dumping. In fact, I ask myself, if I were Bob, I almost certainly would have recruited either of them. Given what has been posted by both of them since then, I would lean more towards llama being the likely recruit. Mata seems likely civvie to me at this point unless there's one of the secrets going on AND she did receive the most votes this past lynch period so obviously Bob wanted to ride the curtails of an easy lynch... so despite her info hinting and such, I do not think she is recruited or Bob at all. BWT, Rox, and Russ are the three I feel most uncertain about. They could be civvie, they could be Bob, they could have maybe been recruited on Day 0. Can others contribute what they think about all of this, but perhaps even more significantly what they think about any of those three?
All of this being said, I think I'm currently most leaning llama as the Day 2 recruit and then.... depending on who is Bob... if it is Kate or S~V~S, then I would bet heartily the other one was recruited on Day 0. If on the other hand, Bob is someone else, then both of them are probably unrecruited civvies, and we're looking at 2 of Snow Dog, Vomps, BWT, Mata, Rox, or Russ as the Day 0 recruit, and probably Vomps, BWT, Rox, or Russ as Bob (Mata seems unlikely Bob given the circumstances and Snow Dog is reading clearly very civvie to me in his posting behavior).
Phew. It's so glad to finally get some more clarity here regarding this game and actually be caught up. I was so lost, and I am still feeling quite uncertain given the fact that most of the reads here can be perverted because any civvie-seeming player can be recruited at any moment, so I admit I could be wrong in any of my analyses -- BUT, this is what I currently have after reading through.
INH: Does Day 0 count as an even number for the purposes of Bob's power? i.e., did he recruit during the 0 period?
Linki with Kate: I'm wondering that myself. I mean, it would make sense, since otherwise Bob wouldn't be able to recruit until Day 2 AND zero is an even number. I always think of it as an even number, but then I thought about it and I realize I wasn't 100% sure, so I did google "is zero an even number" just now, lol, and according to Wiki: "Zero is an even number because it is divisible by 2", so it makes logical sense he would have two recruits by now. But why have people been assuming instead of asking? Hence my question above.
But we can do the math and know how many civ votes there are versus baddie votes. And it doesn't matter how many night kills we prevent if we are not able to lynch baddies.Kate wrote:Its a delicate balancing act Llama, you must understand that. We need to weigh the risk of lynching someone (who could be a civ for all we know) against the possibility of preventing a NK or two. Its just not as cut and dry as you're presenting it.thellama73 wrote:Thanks for your thoughts, MP. I am always glad when you rejoin a thread because I think you have good insights. I will take much of what you said into consideration.
I agree that it would have made sense for Bob to recruit either me or Snowy, but he did not recruit me. I am open to the idea that it might be snowy, but I think it should be clear that I have been arguing the most sensible strategy for the civvies, which everyone proceeds to ignore. They all say they are nervous about leaving people uncovered, but no one has explained why it's okay to allow the baddies to completely control all the lynch votes.If there is a night kill tonight, I will probably be voting for Roxy, because the way she has been ignoring that last point seems really suspect to me.
Lots of linki
I do see your point. I think what we need to do though, first, is come up with a unanimous lynch candidate which has been difficult in the past and I'm not seeing that being much easier tomorrow.thellama73 wrote:But we can do the math and know how many civ votes there are versus baddie votes. And it doesn't matter how many night kills we prevent if we are not able to lynch baddies.Kate wrote:Its a delicate balancing act Llama, you must understand that. We need to weigh the risk of lynching someone (who could be a civ for all we know) against the possibility of preventing a NK or two. Its just not as cut and dry as you're presenting it.thellama73 wrote:Thanks for your thoughts, MP. I am always glad when you rejoin a thread because I think you have good insights. I will take much of what you said into consideration.
I agree that it would have made sense for Bob to recruit either me or Snowy, but he did not recruit me. I am open to the idea that it might be snowy, but I think it should be clear that I have been arguing the most sensible strategy for the civvies, which everyone proceeds to ignore. They all say they are nervous about leaving people uncovered, but no one has explained why it's okay to allow the baddies to completely control all the lynch votes.If there is a night kill tonight, I will probably be voting for Roxy, because the way she has been ignoring that last point seems really suspect to me.
Lots of linki
Anyway, I don't object to people disagreeing with my plan, I object to the fact that nobody (except for you now, and maybe Snow Dog) is addressing the points I'm making, but are instead just saying "OMG you want to leave seven uncovered, that's crazy!" which I find suspicious.
I addressed your plan, for the record.thellama73 wrote: Anyway, I don't object to people disagreeing with my plan, I object to the fact that nobody (except for you now, and maybe Snow Dog) is addressing the points I'm making, but are instead just saying "OMG you want to leave seven uncovered, that's crazy!" which I find suspicious.
Kate, I think the way you lay it out it doesn't make any sense for recruits to be able to contact BOB or vice versa using smilies. In fact, when you lay it out this way it even seems possible they may not know who he is.Kate wrote:
Ok. So given that, are we assuming that:
1. Bob recruited on day 0.
2. He got to send in a PM on day 0 requesting a recruit.
3. The recruit could not communicate with Bob.
4. Bob did not get another recruit until day day 2.
5. Bob sent in a PM on day 2 seeking a recruit.
6. The recruit could not communicate with bob but could communicate with recruit #1.
If all of those are correct, then if the "smilie" theory is correct, how would the recruits know to send the smilies? Is there a message ability anywhere that I'm missing? Or maybe thats the *secret*? Also, after the recruit PM is sent, are we to assume the recruit goes through automatically? So for example, PM sent at start of day 2 re: player X, Player X receives PM 2 hours later, upon receiving INH's PM he is automatically recruited? There's no wait period like a night power?
Yea, I'm trying to play with the theory a bit to see if I can make it make sense. There'd be no reason for the recruits to send messages to each other, it would only make sense to send them to Bob, but only if there was some discernable way of having Bob realize what they were doing. Which I'm not sure I can see. But I definitely say that with a pile of salt because, you know, *secrets* lolRusstifinko wrote:I addressed your plan, for the record.thellama73 wrote: Anyway, I don't object to people disagreeing with my plan, I object to the fact that nobody (except for you now, and maybe Snow Dog) is addressing the points I'm making, but are instead just saying "OMG you want to leave seven uncovered, that's crazy!" which I find suspicious.
Kate, I think the way you lay it out it doesn't make any sense for recruits to be able to contact BOB or vice versa using smilies. In fact, when you lay it out this way it even seems possible they may not know who he is.Kate wrote:
Ok. So given that, are we assuming that:
1. Bob recruited on day 0.
2. He got to send in a PM on day 0 requesting a recruit.
3. The recruit could not communicate with Bob.
4. Bob did not get another recruit until day day 2.
5. Bob sent in a PM on day 2 seeking a recruit.
6. The recruit could not communicate with bob but could communicate with recruit #1.
If all of those are correct, then if the "smilie" theory is correct, how would the recruits know to send the smilies? Is there a message ability anywhere that I'm missing? Or maybe thats the *secret*? Also, after the recruit PM is sent, are we to assume the recruit goes through automatically? So for example, PM sent at start of day 2 re: player X, Player X receives PM 2 hours later, upon receiving INH's PM he is automatically recruited? There's no wait period like a night power?
Also, the possibility of 2 NKs tonight is terrifying.
MP, glad to get another active voice in the game!
I know you disagree, but you never disputed my reasoning. You just kept saying you didn't want to leave seven people uncovered.Roxy wrote: Llama - what do you mean I am the only one not adressing your plan - pardon me but the last lynch we discussed your plan at length and you knew how I felt then but now you are acting like it is a surprise why?
Because the role says that the recruits have BTSC it does not say that Bob does.Roxy wrote:What I don't get is why people don't think that Bob and his recruits can't talk?? Why? Would be awfully hard as a baddie to not have btsc. I have never seen a recruiter NOT be able to communicate with their recruits.
insertnamehere wrote:
It is now Day 1. You have 24 hours to vote out who you think is BOB, and whoever he is possessing. Remember, if whoever BOB's possessing get's a single vote, everybody lives through the night.
I agree. I am sure Bob sends a PM via the host saying "Kill Whatshisname", and that the recruit doesn't even know who Bob is.Kate wrote:Because the role says that the recruits have BTSC it does not say that Bob does.Roxy wrote:What I don't get is why people don't think that Bob and his recruits can't talk?? Why? Would be awfully hard as a baddie to not have btsc. I have never seen a recruiter NOT be able to communicate with their recruits.
You are? I never even thought of that. Well then that begs the question, does the possessed even know they are possessed?Snow Dog wrote:I agree. I am sure Bob sends a PM via the host saying "Kill Whatshisname", and that the recruit doesn't even know who Bob is.Kate wrote:Because the role says that the recruits have BTSC it does not say that Bob does.Roxy wrote:What I don't get is why people don't think that Bob and his recruits can't talk?? Why? Would be awfully hard as a baddie to not have btsc. I have never seen a recruiter NOT be able to communicate with their recruits.
So? What is your point here? Because I don't agree with leaving 7 people uncovered I must be bad? I still do not get it. Even though the plan is ok mathmatically doesn't mean I think it will work in this game. Frankly you wanting to leave so many uncovered makes me wonder why.thellama73 wrote:I know you disagree, but you never disputed my reasoning. You just kept saying you didn't want to leave seven people uncovered.Roxy wrote: Llama - what do you mean I am the only one not adressing your plan - pardon me but the last lynch we discussed your plan at length and you knew how I felt then but now you are acting like it is a surprise why?
There is no need to be insulting. I am not even gonna talk to you anymore.Roxy wrote:The recruits would have to know who Bob is. They all have to know who each other are so they don't lynch tgheir own teammates derpdederp
D'oh! Of course. *facepalm*Roxy wrote:If the possessed have btsc then obv they know they have been possessed . I still think Bob has BTSC with them Idc if anyone agrees with that or not.
I don't think this is necessarily true. Bob is really powerful. By keeping him separate from the possessed, it may have been a game mechanic that INH used to make the baddies have to try as hard as we do. lol. I dunno. But maybe.Roxy wrote:The recruits would have to know who Bob is. They all have to know who each other are so they don't lynch tgheir own teammates derpdederp
As far as I know derp means stupid. But for the sake of the game I will drop it.Roxy wrote:Sorry if you feel insulted Snow Dog as that is never my intention. The derp comes from the 4EW site and has been used ever since.
Kate - we will have to agree to disagree as I don't want to detract from finding a suitable lynch candidate that we can all agree on.
Who do you think is Bob? Then who has he recruited?
Lol. I love this post.Roxy wrote:There is punctuation where it doesn't belong in my post. Read like there is no punctuation lol
Are you saying Roxy may be Bob?thellama73 wrote:EBWOP: FALSE theories.
I also think that if BOB and his recruits all have BTSC it would be massively overpowered and unbalanced.
I think she is either BOB or a recruit. It's hard to say which is more likely.Snow Dog wrote:Are you saying Roxy may be Bob?thellama73 wrote:EBWOP: FALSE theories.
I also think that if BOB and his recruits all have BTSC it would be massively overpowered and unbalanced.
Because BOB doesn't kill, his minions do. This is another example of you trying to mislead us by misstating the way the game works, IMO.Roxy wrote:If I am Bob then why was there no kill when I was left all the poll last time?
Because Bob cannot kill. Have you read the roles? Or is this pretend ignorance?Roxy wrote:If I am Bob then why was there no kill when I was left all the poll last time?
Wow, i just made exactly the same point.thellama73 wrote:Because BOB doesn't kill, his minions do. This is another example of you trying to mislead us by misstating the way the game works, IMO.Roxy wrote:If I am Bob then why was there no kill when I was left all the poll last time?