Re: Easter Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 9:40 am
I get a strong “thinking out loud” vibe here, which is NAI and fine, but you do realize this doesn’t tell us much at all, right? That’s a lot of words for “I don’t know” and feels like it could almost be exaggerated.M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:38 am - My gut and brain are torn on so many of these reads. My brain says Jay is strong town, my gut says he's slight town. Similar deal with Quin. Reverse it with Dizzy and lapluie; slight town from brain and strong town from gut. Colin, Marmot, and Kyle are all in a similar boat, but I feel like at least one of the three is bad, and GTH right now I think that player is Kyle. I could totally be off though, and this begs reassessment and further evaluation as to why exactly I feel that way. To try to elaborate why I feel that way now... Colin and Kyle are more liked by my brain but my gut is skeptical. Marmot is absolutely loved by my gut but my brain says he's possibly the worst looking player right now; the gut read is a bit stronger in the end. Why Kyle sticks out of the 3 is... hard to say, other than I thought his continued discussion of Choutas looked forced and inauthentic -- exactly the opposite of what Jay took out of the posts. Charlienosis, Elohcin, and Scotty are the biggest question marks in my mind right now and default to slight mafia; they need to come in and town it up ASAP if they are town.
I have a lot of work to do today; I'll probably not be around until D2.
I think my sole post about Croutons was Get the hell in here and then I voted for him. Hard to call that distancingColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:42 am Wolbre’s early vote could conceivably have been D1 distancing. The fact that he wasn’t around at EOD, though, means we won’t know how he would have reacted to seeing it snowball.
I read the thread and nothing else would've made me want to change my vote. Although the people hopping on him like mad later on...wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 11:26 amI think my sole post about Croutons was Get the hell in here and then I voted for him. Hard to call that distancingColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:42 am Wolbre’s early vote could conceivably have been D1 distancing. The fact that he wasn’t around at EOD, though, means we won’t know how he would have reacted to seeing it snowball.
Look at Greece and the latest game where I prodded people with votes. "Oooooo how suspicious!" , even harder to call this distancing when I've done it in 2 of 3 games I've been in before this and I flip civwolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 11:27 amI read the thread and nothing else would've made me want to change my vote. Although the people hopping on him like mad later on...wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 11:26 amI think my sole post about Croutons was Get the hell in here and then I voted for him. Hard to call that distancingColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:42 am Wolbre’s early vote could conceivably have been D1 distancing. The fact that he wasn’t around at EOD, though, means we won’t know how he would have reacted to seeing it snowball.
wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 11:35 amLook at Greece and the latest game where I prodded people with votes. "Oooooo how suspicious!" , even harder to call this distancing when I've done it in 2 of 3 games I've been in before this and I flip civwolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 11:27 amI read the thread and nothing else would've made me want to change my vote. Although the people hopping on him like mad later on...wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 11:26 amI think my sole post about Croutons was Get the hell in here and then I voted for him. Hard to call that distancingColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:42 am Wolbre’s early vote could conceivably have been D1 distancing. The fact that he wasn’t around at EOD, though, means we won’t know how he would have reacted to seeing it snowball.
This definitely struck me as odd and I’m glad Marmot brought it up. I think that a player could make that mistake in either alignment, but I think even moreso in a situation where a mafioso is moving around names on their spectrum list to make sure they cover all their bases. Matter of fact, j would make sure I didn’t miss my teammates. I think missing teammates would look more damning than not, and double teammates, albeit careless, is a slightly better mistake.
I am hardly a Jennifer Lopez type
You’re posing a lot of questions of “would mafia do this” in these posts in a row. But every person is different, soooo trying to read into what the general mafioso would do is like trying to blindly read the nutritional facts on a cereal box.M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:06 am I'm torn on Marmot because my gut still thinks he sounds genuine, but another thing I just thought of: Marmot said something to the effect of not understanding the suspicion on him. He also suspects me despite the fact that his EoD behavior is essentially the most comparable to my own. I tend to think I throw out statements like that more when I'm mafia than town, but again, that's a self-assessment off the top of my head so it could be completely inaccurate, and otherwise I'm certainly not comparable to everyone else. Is there any anecdotal evidence about this? Are players more likely to make a statement re: not understanding suspicion as town or mafia, or does it depend on the player?
How much of jay’s interactive analysis do you agree with? You don’t trust him, so is there anything he brought up that looks awry? I know you already answered your own analysisM Plus 7 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:23 amI appreciate it. I'm just thinking out loud as much as I can, and hopefully at least some of it is useful. We've hit an awesome result, but while we can continue to kick ass and I hope we do, it can unfortunately go awry from here, so I'm trying to consider all of the possibilities. I've seen town blow something like before by being too closed-minded.Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:19 am I'm taking in all of what you're saying, MP. Don't think I have an actual response though.
What happened with you and Jimmeeey mi day, btw? That quarrel/discussion thing seemed out of the blue to me and pops up in my head now and then.
I'm not sure I could articulate anything particularly illuminating other than what's already in the thread. I was distrusting of Jay. I still am, very slightly, but he's OK for now. He apparently thought something I said was nonsense and pushed me on it. I'm not sure what he thinks right now exactly.
Lol you would think that, since you were one of the last people to vote himMarmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:53 am Since Choutas was never here at the EoD, I find it less likely that someone who pushed his wagon was bussing him, because he wasn't around to talk about it.
Wolbre's vote was so early on that I don't find it to be town-supporting evidence.
Quin, Kyle, and Jay all built the wagon into a lead. I don't believe any of them bussed Choutas.
MP and I voted last second. I know my alignment, and I've stated my thoughts on MP already.
Why are you worried about how it could tie you to it? That’s akin to a guilty person being questioned about a crime they committed and them responding “yeah? Where’s your proof?!”wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:00 amI legitimately want to know what could tie me to this? Many times it feels like people are grasping hard at straws and it feels like you're tinfoiling.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:59 amI have to ask - why? Quin also appears twice and it was just an error in copypasting names over. I don't understand how there could be any degree of correlation between Me listing croutons and queen twice ergo them being on a team with me when coitus flips rabbit
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Is “who is she” a common street slang? I might be a little behind on my cool kid lingo, but if it is, please enlighten me.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:05 amOkay I feel like I'm being trolledMarmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:03 amThe thing about the Choutas one is that you listed two very different thoughts. In one you described his meta. In the other, you asked who she was. I just don't understand how you can thinking both of these things about the same person, because thinking one of them doesn't suggest you'd also be thinking the other one.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:59 amI have to ask - why? Quin also appears twice and it was just an error in copypasting names over. I don't understand how there could be any degree of correlation between Me listing croutons and queen twice ergo them being on a team with me when coitus flips rabbit
I also don't understand the Mariah Karie reference so![]()
1. His meta is low posting
2. He was posting nothing (which is less than low) this game -> "who is she" AKA WHERE THE FUCK ARE YOU
Been meaning to ask you- what do you think of Elo this game? You seem to imply she isn’t a great liar. She hasn’t really done much thus far in terms of making traceable statements, but is there anything in her tone that raises your eyebrows?Charlie Blackmon wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:37 am The manager gets pretty upset when we're on the Internet and not listening to him, but I'm in the bathroom right now to squeeze this in:
I believe wolbre04 is in the same lineup as Cooties. The reason I say this is when he had my name in blue, he said he was thinking about "Upickem," which reminded me of this one Iranian ball player Hassan Upickem, who many years ago killed a man and acted like the victim was still alive. Crazy guy actually got away with it. This feels like a similar ruse.
yyyyikes
I can’t get this quote from marmot’s entrance out of my head. I strongly feel like jjj is town this game, so I don’t think Marmot called out his scummates here. But I currently suspect wolbre and wouldn’t be surprised if Marmot threw in one of his teammates in this too. Marmot votes choutas end of day, wolbre voted early before vhoutas even had votes. Coming in from different angles to form an isosceles triangle. I can see it
Bing bong. This is basically an antidefense for himself. Nova had no interaction with choutas and felt almost as empty as choutas. I could very well vote here tomorrow if nothing else is inspiring me. But I feel inspired in general and it’s not the xanaxnovaselinenever wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 12:06 amI'm green in there despite my vote on JJJ being bad according to him. That vote and case I have on JJJ are the only contribution I had D1.Marmot wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:55 pmChoutas is in this rainbow twice.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 7:25 pm Here's My Reads list, I'll try to provide a small quip next to each one (just in the order i saw them)
Order of the Manboob
Wolbre04 - lord and savior
JJJ - t/t argument with MP7, me and Lilefer have a similar way of playing as t/t against each other
Knights of the Nipple
Kyle
Lapluie - compared to a previous civ game, u look good
Colin
Quin
Nova - fine except that JJJ vote
MP7 - Argument with Jay seems t/t
Marmot/Mac - got us info that makes laplui look pretty good
Quin
Charlie Black Man - baseball guy who isn't actually a black man
Choutas - his meta is low posting and not being around much
Dizzy - dont like your vote on JJJ
Scotty - always wants me dead
Choutas - Who is she
Sekiy
Elohcin
Floyd - Who is she
really exhausted tbh, ima get some sleep, cya guys later
Choutas - his meta is low posting and not being around much
Choutas - Who is she
wolbre, what in the world does this mean? You wrote off that Choutas has the meta of low-posting, and asked who she was??
We use it on my home forum a lot. It's ATRL slang, as the cool kids say, like "I'll snatch your weave bitch" or "Stanning someone"Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:46 pmIs “who is she” a common street slang? I might be a little behind on my cool kid lingo, but if it is, please enlighten me.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:05 amOkay I feel like I'm being trolledMarmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:03 amThe thing about the Choutas one is that you listed two very different thoughts. In one you described his meta. In the other, you asked who she was. I just don't understand how you can thinking both of these things about the same person, because thinking one of them doesn't suggest you'd also be thinking the other one.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:59 amI have to ask - why? Quin also appears twice and it was just an error in copypasting names over. I don't understand how there could be any degree of correlation between Me listing croutons and queen twice ergo them being on a team with me when coitus flips rabbit
I also don't understand the Mariah Karie reference so![]()
1. His meta is low posting
2. He was posting nothing (which is less than low) this game -> "who is she" AKA WHERE THE FUCK ARE YOU
But mixing up gender roles in the same post? That looks like a slip, bub. Feels forced.
But again, if it is some sort of common phrase people say, like #shehashadit then the prosecution retracts it’s statement
wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 2:26 pmWe use it on my home forum a lot. It's ATRL slang, as the cool kids say, like "I'll snatch your weave bitch" or "Stanning someone"Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:46 pmIs “who is she” a common street slang? I might be a little behind on my cool kid lingo, but if it is, please enlighten me.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:05 amOkay I feel like I'm being trolledMarmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:03 amThe thing about the Choutas one is that you listed two very different thoughts. In one you described his meta. In the other, you asked who she was. I just don't understand how you can thinking both of these things about the same person, because thinking one of them doesn't suggest you'd also be thinking the other one.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:59 amI have to ask - why? Quin also appears twice and it was just an error in copypasting names over. I don't understand how there could be any degree of correlation between Me listing croutons and queen twice ergo them being on a team with me when coitus flips rabbit
I also don't understand the Mariah Karie reference so![]()
1. His meta is low posting
2. He was posting nothing (which is less than low) this game -> "who is she" AKA WHERE THE FUCK ARE YOU
But mixing up gender roles in the same post? That looks like a slip, bub. Feels forced.
But again, if it is some sort of common phrase people say, like #shehashadit then the prosecution retracts it’s statement
Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 3:15 pmwolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 2:26 pmWe use it on my home forum a lot. It's ATRL slang, as the cool kids say, like "I'll snatch your weave bitch" or "Stanning someone"Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:46 pmIs “who is she” a common street slang? I might be a little behind on my cool kid lingo, but if it is, please enlighten me.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:05 amOkay I feel like I'm being trolledMarmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:03 amThe thing about the Choutas one is that you listed two very different thoughts. In one you described his meta. In the other, you asked who she was. I just don't understand how you can thinking both of these things about the same person, because thinking one of them doesn't suggest you'd also be thinking the other one.wolbre04 wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:59 amI have to ask - why? Quin also appears twice and it was just an error in copypasting names over. I don't understand how there could be any degree of correlation between Me listing croutons and queen twice ergo them being on a team with me when coitus flips rabbit
I also don't understand the Mariah Karie reference so![]()
1. His meta is low posting
2. He was posting nothing (which is less than low) this game -> "who is she" AKA WHERE THE FUCK ARE YOU
But mixing up gender roles in the same post? That looks like a slip, bub. Feels forced.
But again, if it is some sort of common phrase people say, like #shehashadit then the prosecution retracts it’s statement![]()
Ok I’ll take your word for it.
Did you read the rest of my post? I was talking about the people who pushed his wagon: Quin, Kyle, and Jay, not the rest of the folks voting for him.Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:41 pmLol you would think that, since you were one of the last people to vote himMarmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:53 am Since Choutas was never here at the EoD, I find it less likely that someone who pushed his wagon was bussing him, because he wasn't around to talk about it.
Wolbre's vote was so early on that I don't find it to be town-supporting evidence.
Quin, Kyle, and Jay all built the wagon into a lead. I don't believe any of them bussed Choutas.
MP and I voted last second. I know my alignment, and I've stated my thoughts on MP already.
like you never even talked about wolbre at all before then.
You're drinking the wine man, be careful.Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:56 pmI can’t get this quote from marmot’s entrance out of my head. I strongly feel like jjj is town this game, so I don’t think Marmot called out his scummates here. But I currently suspect wolbre and wouldn’t be surprised if Marmot threw in one of his teammates in this too. Marmot votes choutas end of day, wolbre voted early before vhoutas even had votes. Coming in from different angles to form an isosceles triangle. I can see it
Marmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 4:07 pmDid you read the rest of my post? I was talking about the people who pushed his wagon: Quin, Kyle, and Jay, not the rest of the folks voting for him.Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:41 pmLol you would think that, since you were one of the last people to vote himMarmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:53 am Since Choutas was never here at the EoD, I find it less likely that someone who pushed his wagon was bussing him, because he wasn't around to talk about it.
Wolbre's vote was so early on that I don't find it to be town-supporting evidence.
Quin, Kyle, and Jay all built the wagon into a lead. I don't believe any of them bussed Choutas.
MP and I voted last second. I know my alignment, and I've stated my thoughts on MP already.
like you never even talked about wolbre at all before then.
I can't pretend to have a clue.Scotty wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 1:49 pmHi Elo
You have a good pallate for townreading. Who do you think is suspicious?
Why?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 4:32 pm If right now it was Day 2 and I had ten seconds to place a final vote, it would be for Charlie Blackmon.
Of the people who have made at least one post, he is the only one for whom I cannot think of one favorable point.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 5:35 pmWhy?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 4:32 pm If right now it was Day 2 and I had ten seconds to place a final vote, it would be for Charlie Blackmon.
That's a good question, Colin. Either situation is possible. I'd say it depends on the circumstances and the players comprising the mafia team.ColinIsCool wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:47 am On my phone and it’s a pain so I won’t quote, but MP, when you speak of paranoia above, what kind of mafia manipulation are you talking about? Do you think it’s more likely a scum team will all pile together at last second to save one of their own (as they would have had to do to stop Choutas’s lynch) or that they’ll read the writing on the wall and do what they can to look like they wanted him dead? I think the second is much more likely, tbh.
How do inconsistencies mean that I have a mafia role card?Marmot wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 8:49 am My suspicion about MP stems from this.
Quoting Jay's ISO of MP for this.
Spoiler: show
In here, we see MP promoting the lynch of another player, Elohcin, as the day winded down and Choutas was in the lead.
We also see him questioning wolbre's vote for Choutas and calling it a throwaway vote. This was the only vote for Choutas at the time.
Then later on, MP dismissed Dizzy's vote for Jay as a throwaway vote, and took a lot of flak from Jay for it. Dizzy's vote put Jay at a strong lead in the lynch with 4 votes.
The inconsistencies are what I see suspicious here, especially between MP's question of wolbre's vote and uncaring of Dizzy's vote.
I'm also realizing this doesn't actually make Dizzy bad. I mean she could be, but I guess my main belief from the Jay/MP heated discussion yesterday is that MP was willing to accept Dizzy's vote without questioning it. But that doesn't mean they are teammates, he could have accepted it because the vote was on Jay, and Jay might have been lynched for it.
Anyway, my suspicion of MP still holds strong, but Dizzy not so much.