The Syndicate

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:59 pm I don't have the mental energy to devote to this, so if someone hypothetically were to post a guide to the day 1 votes and delineated out a clear poe I'd be happy about that

I'd love to, but I also need to spend more time working tomorrow since I didn't do it as much as I planned today, RIP. I still may though if no one else beats me to it.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:00 pm MP and Hally have a bajillion posts

Yeah, oops, and I thought I was going to slank hard. I should know better.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:44 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:10 pm i think vig should shoot with mp/sabie/mist. and if they feel they’re at risk to be shot tonight (ie on cayvie) i think they should claim too so that scum can’t nk them tonight and then claim vig later on. i’m worried in a flipless setup about scum fake claiming and getting wrongly cleared off that. but idk if this mechanically correct

Wait, you think all three of us should claim then, are you sure?

no you three shouldn’t since if you’re town scum won’t kill you because you’re in the poe. if the vig is in you three it’s better to stay hidden until at least tomorrow. i was more worried about if ran or tony is vig because scum could kill them tonight and then we wouldn’t know. but tbh this is kinda dumb because i forgot tony claimed ic already. so he’s probably just always the kill here

The nice thing about 72/24 is we all have a lot of time.

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

why shouldn’t the vig shoot tonight?

Thanks Hally, I realized I also misread part of that.

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:02 pm

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

why shouldn’t the vig shoot tonight?

because then if they get shot bad things could happen

also there's no reason why a vig should shoot now instead of waiting at the very least

wait is mafia at parity?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:02 pm The nice thing about 72/24 is we all have a lot of time.

Yes, very true.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:47 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:54 pm if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

What's the most likely scenario to you if Mist is town?

that either you or sabie is scum

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:04 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:47 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:54 pm if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

What's the most likely scenario to you if Mist is town?

that either you or sabie is scum

Well, okay, that makes sense, lmao, I just was wondering if you had a clear pecking order.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:03 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

Hmmm yeah I guess the wording was poor. It just felt like sabie was trying to have it both ways and it read awkwardly to me.

why did you find that scummy if you read cayvie town? like wouldn’t sabie not really wanting to kill cayvie be a good thing if fypov cayvie was town? idk if this makes sense

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:06 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:03 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

Hmmm yeah I guess the wording was poor. It just felt like sabie was trying to have it both ways and it read awkwardly to me.

why did you find that scummy if you read cayvie town? like wouldn’t sabie not really wanting to kill cayvie be a good thing if fypov cayvie was town? idk if this makes sense

Oh huh, I see what you mean. I just thought it meant sabie was acting with TMI, I didn't really think of it from whether cayvie was town or scum specifically because either way it felt like sabie was dancing around cayvie and she knew cayvie's alignment, you know?

Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:51 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:50 pm I think we just force the scum to shoot Hally though.

By this I mean... if she's town, let her get NKed. I don't want to tinfoil that yet. If she's alive at a critical stage and it becomes relevant, consider it thoroughly. I guess this is a small game though so maybe I'm thinking about this backwards.

yes, please nk me @scum. i promise you won’t regret it

If IC is within mp7/sabie/mist they should claim ASAP to avoid the risk of getting vigged.
If vig wants to shoot tonight, I'd prefer they call their shot. But if they do call a shot they have to take it, no fake shots from anyone please.

Unfortunately I think there's a fairly significant chance Hyena was a PR.

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:55 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:52 pm

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

because an N1 shot can allow a D2 claim from scum

if there’s no n1 shot and two D2 claims we just win
if there’s an n1 shot and two D2 claims we have to pick between them
and if there’s no n1 shot and one D2 claim we have a chance to prove it
if there’s an n1 shot and one D2 claim we can’t confirm anything

im too tired to comprehend this

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:57 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:52 pm

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:46 pm optimal mech play i think is IC reveal and vig claim TOMORROW then we pick one player to punt and the other to vig

scum can’t risk a vig claim then because no shot outs them

Wait, I don't quite understand the second part I think. Why is it better for N2 vig shot than N1?

if someone hypothetically claims vig day 2 and it turns out it was hyena or whatever and there's no cc then if there's no shot they're a confirmed wolf

ftr hyena claimed vt D1 so we’re golden on that front unless he was bluffing

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:00 pm MP and Hally have a bajillion posts

and water is wet

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:03 pm wait is mafia at parity?

i assume so?

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:04 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:04 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:47 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:54 pm if i buy mp’s reaction as pure and buy sabie’s derp as real, it’s just mist. but i tr mist so that feels wrong. but i don’t think ran would bus there. so i’m going wrong somewhere

What's the most likely scenario to you if Mist is town?

that either you or sabie is scum

Well, okay, that makes sense, lmao, I just was wondering if you had a clear pecking order.

not atm. gotta see where my inquiries lead

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:06 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:49 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:03 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm I feel like sabie's hedging on cayvie seems a bit opportunistic.

what did you mean by this mp? isn’t hedging the opposite of being opportunistic?

Hmmm yeah I guess the wording was poor. It just felt like sabie was trying to have it both ways and it read awkwardly to me.

why did you find that scummy if you read cayvie town? like wouldn’t sabie not really wanting to kill cayvie be a good thing if fypov cayvie was town? idk if this makes sense

Oh huh, I see what you mean. I just thought it meant sabie was acting with TMI, I didn't really think of it from whether cayvie was town or scum specifically because either way it felt like sabie was dancing around cayvie and she knew cayvie's alignment, you know?

hm. ok that makes sense ig

i mean yeah IC revealing tonight is ~fine it just means we don't have the chance to thin out our PoE tomorrow

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:10 pm If IC is within mp7/sabie/mist they should claim ASAP to avoid the risk of getting vigged.
If vig wants to shoot tonight, I'd prefer they call their shot. But if they do call a shot they have to take it, no fake shots from anyone please.

Unfortunately I think there's a fairly significant chance Hyena was a PR.

hyena claimed vt

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

im like kinda pinged by sabie pulling up those quotes about cayvie’s vengeful bussing theory and just dropping them in the thread because i feel like if sabie is the last mafia she would absolutely want to plant paranoia about a bus. like i don’t get why conf scum’s words should hold bearing on whether or not scum bussed. it’s just wifom at best

The problem is if BOTH PRs are down there, there's a chance the vig silently shoots the IC, and I don't particularly trust Hyena's VT claim.
... maybe I'm too pessimistic about this. Ehn.

Here's what I had in voting logs:

D1
Hally votes Hyena
Scirrus votes Hally
Mist votes Scirrus
Hyena votes Hally
Hally votes Cayvie (serious)
Cayvie votes Hyena
Hally votes Hyena
MP7 votes Scirrus
Hally votes Cayvie at some point?
TSP votes MP7 at some point?
Ran votes Cayvie
Ran votes MP7
Sabie votes Hally
TSP votes Cayvie
Ran votes Cayvie
MP7 unvotes

missing some from eod I believe, and from earlier, it's difficult to be sure since some votes happened in poll but not in thread.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:24 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

Oh, I see, like I was looking for angles to push people. That makes sense.

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:24 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

Oh, I see, like I was looking for angles to push people. That makes sense.

is that what you were doing?

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:24 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

Oh, I see, like I was looking for angles to push people. That makes sense.

is that what you were doing?

Hehe! No.

im gonna let the ppl who are good at mech stuff decide whether claiming tonight is good

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:27 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:25 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:24 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:17 pm

M Plus 7 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:08 pm Hey I guess in retrospect if sabie/cayvie is the team I was onto something sort of? Hehe.

what i was getting at is that maybe you had tmi cayvie was scum and so sabie’s treatment of cayvie was something that stood out to you as an angle you could push if/when cayvie flipped. but idk it doesn’t have to be that

Wait, what do you mean exactly?

like if you’re scum you knew cayvie was scum, so you saw sabie hedging on cayvie and called it out because you knew that if cayvie flipped you could push sabie and you wanted to set it up. but again it doesn’t have to be that. like your explanation for it makes sense

Oh, I see, like I was looking for angles to push people. That makes sense.

is that what you were doing?

Hehe! No.

welp. worth a shot

Hehe, I don't blame you.

Well, I'm going to call it a night. I'll be around sporadically tomorrow. I teach Mondays-Wednesdays so we'll see how that goes, but I'll still be around. I'm definitely enjoying this with you all.

good night!

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:21 pm im like kinda pinged by sabie pulling up those quotes about cayvie’s vengeful bussing theory and just dropping them in the thread because i feel like if sabie is the last mafia she would absolutely want to plant paranoia about a bus. like i don’t get why conf scum’s words should hold bearing on whether or not scum bussed. it’s just wifom at best

I looked through cayvies ISO and those quotes stood out to me. If anything can be gleaned from her ISO I thought maybe those quotes were significant. Alas as always my thoughts and ideas don't make sense to anyone else but me. I thought it was mist but then those interactions seem weird as teammates.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:37 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:21 pm im like kinda pinged by sabie pulling up those quotes about cayvie’s vengeful bussing theory and just dropping them in the thread because i feel like if sabie is the last mafia she would absolutely want to plant paranoia about a bus. like i don’t get why conf scum’s words should hold bearing on whether or not scum bussed. it’s just wifom at best

I looked through cayvies ISO and those quotes stood out to me. If anything can be gleaned from her ISO I thought maybe those quotes were significant. Alas as always my thoughts and ideas don't make sense to anyone else but me. I thought it was mist but then those interactions seem weird as teammates.

but why are they significant? what do they mean to you? and what interactions re: mist?

im probably gonna look through the whole game again for cayvie stuff. not tonight though. i wanna sleep soon

Good night MP7, good night Hally if applicable.

##Nightvote: Mist

I mean cayvie has a whole interaction about bussing and being a vengeful mafia and then ended up being the vengeful mafia so I pointed that out. I thought maybe that was something worth discussing if we're analyzing cayvies ISO. If no one thinks looking at other players interactions with a mafia member is worthwhile then fine I give up go ahead and misyeet me. If someone else had come up with that idea it would be awesome smart amazing cool. If I say it, it's heavily questionable and makes no sense and why would I ever even think that was meaningful?

I shall sleep and try again tomorrow. Just feeling frustrated. I'll get over it and keep trying.

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:47 pm I mean cayvie has a whole interaction about bussing and being a vengeful mafia and then ended up being the vengeful mafia so I pointed that out. I thought maybe that was something worth discussing if we're analyzing cayvies ISO. If no one thinks looking at other players interactions with a mafia member is worthwhile then fine I give up go ahead and misyeet me. If someone else had come up with that idea it would be awesome smart amazing cool. If I say it, it's heavily questionable and makes no sense and why would I ever even think that was meaningful?

oh no i didn’t mean it’s not worthwhile. i’m just trying to understand what you see in it. you didn’t say what you think the posts meant when you quoted them. so i just want to know what you get from them. sorry i’m not trying to frustrate you

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:58 pm I shall sleep and try again tomorrow. Just feeling frustrated. I'll get over it and keep trying.

Ranmilia wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:42 pm Good night MP7, good night Hally if applicable.

##Nightvote: Mist

why mist?

A wise mafia player once told me "Lettuce yeet the slot that does not care what's happening at EOD"

That mafia player... was Mist herself

That's basically why. Also I'm somewhat swayed by MP7 and Sabie's appeals, and Mist's Good Reads (TM) haven't really been in evidence. I felt like Cayvie was kind of textbook scummy, at least, and of the three people who disagreed with that and townread her, Mist seems least believable.

Three people townread Cayvie.

Of these three...

MP7 is believable to me as having very different perspective. The type chart exercise was useful here. The rest of us were all picking mostly the same things, Poison, Ice, Steel on the chart, typical mafia player traits, and MP7 comes in and self describes as Fire which is *way* different from anyone else. And that appears to be genuine.

Also if I am living in an MP7 town world, she gave me a potentially valuable insight when she pointed out that simply starting the typechart exercise is not heavily alignment indicative. I never did see Mist come back and do anything with that information, so the lease/line of credit townread I'd given Mist for it has to be withdrawn.

Sabie is a head scratcher, but...

sabie12 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:47 pm I mean cayvie has a whole interaction about bussing and being a vengeful mafia and then ended up being the vengeful mafia so I pointed that out. I thought maybe that was something worth discussing if we're analyzing cayvies ISO. If no one thinks looking at other players interactions with a mafia member is worthwhile then fine I give up go ahead and misyeet me. If someone else had come up with that idea it would be awesome smart amazing cool. If I say it, it's heavily questionable and makes no sense and why would I ever even think that was meaningful?

This is believable to me and matches Sabie's place in the game. This also matches a world where Mist, specifically, is looking for somewhere to shade.

Mist... called Cayvie #2 town. Mist is a player I have relatively high experience with, and her thoughts usually are more traceable to me than this. When Mist is heavily wrong it's usually from feeling things are too easy, not overtly townreading scum.

Mistyx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:28 pm

cayvie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:23 pm oh im deffo steel in that list

spicy take

this is wolfy for not answering the why

...there's nothing behind this take i just want to feel productive

called cayvie's response wolfy, but immediately disclaims it as a nothing take

Mistyx wrote: ↑Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:26 pm hi, i think

[VOTE: unvote] aubergine

@Alison

naked unvote before the move onto sabie (MP7 also did a naked unvote in fairness, I think d1 unvotes are weakly scum indicative)

Or in other words -

I don't think it's TSP, I don't think it's Hally, both of them were consistently on Cayvie's tail. If the other scum bussed throughout the day and somehow still got THREE townies to townread Cayvie, then GG because I don't know how that happens. I understand I myself would be considered a slightly more likely busser due to subbing in and napping through EOD (looks like I'm getting a sinus infection, bleh), but hope that people can find their way to me, question away and all that.

But from my perspective it's within these three suspects, MP7, Sabie, Mist, the people who townread Cayvie. Numbers, with a clearer head. We get to kill two of them? So if there's one verifiable PR within the three... that seems very good? Or if there's not, people who are good at finding town can approach it by finding one town in there. People who are town and good at finding town and included in the three can find the other town. Hooray. That's good. Words.

For my part I am more inclined towards finding scum and I think the scummiest is Mist. Words. 2 AM. I may be wrong on that. [mention]Mistyx[/mention] if I am wrong on this keep calm and carry on, you believe it's Sabie over MP7?