The Syndicate

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:35 pmWelp

So how does this affect your reads

I won't vote dya cause hammers, so I'll just leave it on unvote. But yes we should kill dya today.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:36 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:35 pmWelp

So how does this affect your reads

dya more likely wolf now

If that's the case, I'm finding the whole progression of them on falcon to be opportunistic, especially given that dya thought that falcon softed a role, but continued to vote for them.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:33 pm Voting jack for now so that dya isn't in the hammer zone (are there hammers in this game)

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:33 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:32 pm @Sabiplz thoughts on who Marmot should shoot?

Falcon or dya tbh

If you want Marmot to shoot Falcon or Dya, why did you move off Falcon to Jack?

Falcon still poe for obvious reasons though, but let's flip dya first.

Welp.

My b Jack.

yeah, okay. Gonna take a stance. Falcon probably not mafia, Sabi mafia.

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:22 pm

Cape90 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:25 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:00 pm Sabi did make the strongest case of anyone to vote hk yesterday. I don't think it's a strong argument because sabi was the counterwagon, but it is still a town point imo

Strongest case huh?

Did you make a strong case against him?

I did find one in P#272, although sabi definitely used more words.

I wasn't saying I made a strong case against HK, I just wanted to see where Sabi made the best case for HK

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:24 pm

Cape90 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:31 pm I really wanna just use my shot so I can sleep.

Oh goodness

here goes nothing IG... If I learned anything, it's to just trust my gut here

Get the dead out of the thread [dunya]

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME

I hope this is right

I really think dunia is town this game.

Why are people concerned about her?

how so?

Oh I see the jack flip

Rip Jack!

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:02 am hollowkatt ( 7 ) Marmot, Spacedaisy, Wisdom, Cape90, DrWilgy, Seanzie, Sabiplz
sabiplz ( 3 ) Shending_Help, NotAnAxehole, hollowkatt
falcon45ca ( 1 ) dyachei
Wisdom ( 1 ) Alison
Not Voting ( 3 ) dunya, falcon45ca, Jackofhearts2005


Here's the vote count from EOD1 again.

I believe what happened was, in the final minute, Spacedaisy vote for hk to make it a tie between hk and sabi at 5-5. Then sean and I moved our votes from sabi to hk to break the tie.


If sabi is town, I think this is a decent look for Spacedaisy since she sheeped a TR's vote. Ties are scum-sided in this setup, but I SD didn't seem to notice she'd made it a tie, and I'm willing to believe that.

I did not make it a tie. My vote put him at 5 over i think Sabi or someone at 4. Then you all moved your votes, probably because I voted and then I posted my vote since I only had two minutes until the poll ended.

@Wisdom what I meant. By liking you, was that immediately before my vote, you said something that struck me as very townie and since I was very much going on hit reads of people, I liked the look. I was already leaning voting he because sabi didn’t read to my gut as bad, so when I saw you had also voted there, I felt more confident in that choice based on my limited info at that time.

Back to catching up now.

It’s really bizarre to me you could place a late vote on someone that then gets eliminated (my vote was like second to last or something, and I am fairly certain when I placed it that it had put him into the lead, I think Marmot and Seanzie were moving votes and didn’t realize I had voted already to fix the tie they were panicking about. My post where I said “I created a tie?” Was because I was pretty sure I hadn’t and found that confusing) and still everyone is just like “meh” about your alignment. Ok then.

Right now I slight lean town on Marmot, Seanzie, Wisdom, and sabi. I can’t recall why I leaned town on dya before, I’ll have to look back at what they said.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:40 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:33 pm Voting jack for now so that dya isn't in the hammer zone (are there hammers in this game)

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:33 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:32 pm @Sabiplz thoughts on who Marmot should shoot?

Falcon or dya tbh

If you want Marmot to shoot Falcon or Dya, why did you move off Falcon to Jack?

@Seanzie i dont shoot people I'm voting for and also Jack wasn't my confident read. He was a placement vote because hammer zone for dya. Please explain how that is scummy

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:06 am yeah, okay. Gonna take a stance. Falcon probably not mafia, Sabi mafia.

This is hilarious. Please tell me who my partners are in this world. Dya also pushed for Falcon?

I had a dream last night I was shot at I'm this game by a player not even playing

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:14 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:58 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:54 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:48 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:48 pm Yup. Oh well. Anybody get shot? I’m watching JP1 with kids. Arguably irresponsible.

no one died this time

Dya, what are your reads atm?

v
jack
SS/Shending
wilgy

lean v
wisdom
seanzie

null
dunya

Lean w
sabi
falcon

mechanical claims:
falcon maybe
sabi
marmot

How about Cape?

I've liked a couple things from them but not enough to lock them in as anything

Feeling quite confident that there's 2-3 wolves in Dunya/Dya/Sabi/Falcon.

Falcon got 4 shots? I mean, bussing happens, but after 2 wolves already got nuked? Weh, don't wanna punt Falcon today.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:15 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:40 pm

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:33 pm Voting jack for now so that dya isn't in the hammer zone (are there hammers in this game)

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:33 pm

Seanzie wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:32 pm @Sabiplz thoughts on who Marmot should shoot?

Falcon or dya tbh

If you want Marmot to shoot Falcon or Dya, why did you move off Falcon to Jack?

@Seanzie i dont shoot people I'm voting for and also Jack wasn't my confident read. He was a placement vote because hammer zone for dya. Please explain how that is scummy

"I don't shoot people I'm voting for" considering you were voting Falcon and want to vote Dya, your suggestion for Marmot suggests otherwise. Staying on Falcon (one of your shot targets) would also leave Dya out of hammer zone.

It doesn't have to be scummy, which is why I asked for your explanation - to see why you did what you did. In general though, when your actions and words don't line up, this could be a sign of a hidden agenda, which is scummy.

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:17 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:06 am yeah, okay. Gonna take a stance. Falcon probably not mafia, Sabi mafia.

This is hilarious. Please tell me who my partners are in this world. Dya also pushed for Falcon?

I don't see anything ruling you out from being partnered with most people. Do you believe you have enough interactions to clear yourself via them even though we don't even know how big the wolf team is?

What is your point on Dya?

Sabiplz wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:17 am

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:06 am yeah, okay. Gonna take a stance. Falcon probably not mafia, Sabi mafia.

This is hilarious. Please tell me who my partners are in this world. Dya also pushed for Falcon?

I read this as not w/w with Dya btw!

Wisdom wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:08 am Feeling quite confident that there's 2-3 wolves in Dunya/Dya/Sabi/Falcon.

I don't have feeings about Dunya, even though I also don't remember any content from them, which is concerning on it's own. Falcon I think is almost assuredly clear if Sabi flips wolf, and idk if I see LC picking Falcon either way.

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:46 pm

Wisdom wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:08 am Feeling quite confident that there's 2-3 wolves in Dunya/Dya/Sabi/Falcon.

I don't have feeings about Dunya, even though I also don't remember any content from them, which is concerning on it's own. Falcon I think is almost assuredly clear if Sabi flips wolf, and idk if I see LC picking Falcon either way.

I'd say Dunya has played in a "keeping the eye on the ball" kind of way, which for a player like her *could* be wolf indicative.

The thing that makes me pause is that she asked SS (Shen) for a wolf game out of nowhere. I think v!SS would be considered unyeetable from a wolfs perspective, which gives me the vibe that Dunya is only wolfing if SS is as well.

I initially town read it though because SS didn't have any spotlight before that and I don't really see a point for Dunya to move it there, and I *can* see SS potentially deep wolf here considering he didn't have a very town siding d1 and I don't recall the emotional backlash that should have come from that. The way he's hard defending me is also something I've *never* seen him do before but I know that he likes to pocket me when wolf. (I can see town him do it as well, is the problem, since he knows I wouldn't crush two wolves right off the gate as wolf.

Actually @dunya help me out here, do you think Shending is wolfing and why?

I will jump in here to say that if / how much I was wolfsiding d1 depends on the alignments of sabi and falcon. If HK and falcon were both wolves, it was way way more likely for W!me to keep pushing the sabi case that I had already built on since earlier on d1, rather bring up that I was willing to CFD falcon, Jack or Alison. It was still very even between sabi at the same where I decided to take the wind out of the sails of my sabi wagon.

If HK /Sabi are W while falc is V, that's probably the worst look for me from an EOD perspective, but then I think instead the interactions between me and sabi from earlier in the day is clearing me instead. If sabi is W, then go read sabi's initial townread of me again in their wallpost and tell me that's not a wolf with tmi rather than forcing a townread on a partner. And then after giving 4 reasons to townread me theyd just walk it back right away for a post with bad tone? While typing this out I feel like sabi flipping wolf is the BEST look for me, even better than sabi being V and falc W.

And obv in the Longshot world where both sabi and falc are wolves I'm mega clear for all reasons above

Marmot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:50 am

Wisdom wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:30 am Good thing to know for everyone who's bad at reading openings: There's a post cap of 60!

I'm not sure I get the whole draft system but there can be up to 6 wolves? (Even though the pick order says 8) 6/15 is still a lot.

I don't know how much we are allowed to talk about the drafting? I have thoughts!

Oh, and n0 Dunya!

My guess is that there is a lot of PRs given the size of the mafia team (but there does still seem to be VTs).

Given that 3 wolves out of 15 is scum-sided in mountainous setup, 6 wolves out of 15 would need a lot of PR to balance imo.

OH and Wisdom. If you want yet another reason why I'm town I'll bring up the fact that I had a strong PR read on Marmot from the very first page of d1 when I read the parenthesis of this post ("but there does still SEEM to be VTs").

He'd be n1'd every time if I was wolfing, for being both a consensus townread and very very likely PR

Mmmmm
Fair!

Wolves could have had knowledge of NAX being PR though!

Wisdom wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:17 pm Wolves could have had knowledge of NAX being PR though!

you think there's a wolf RC or something?

I still think falcon is a wolf. He's trying to coast off his "claim"

I don't really get the dunya wolf reads. Like I think she's null because she hasnt really done a lot yet but wolf reading her seems extreme

I know my opinion means exactly 0 to you wisdom but idont think SS is wolfing here. I think his process has come through pretty fairly in his posts. I also think he's sticking to his reads like he did that one WC game a long time ago

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:18 pm

Wisdom wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:17 pm Wolves could have had knowledge of NAX being PR though!

you think there's a wolf RC or something?

Or just a mechanic that gave wolves some kind of n0 information.

Wisdom wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:17 pm Wolves could have had knowledge of NAX being PR though!

Well it's possible. But that's another "if" that has to be true. Sure, I'm not saying you should clear me from that point alone, but that should be another reason to add ONTO all the other reasons why I'm town this game.

I also pushed for the Alison shot right before you shot it. And I was one of the main voices/forces to push for Sean/Cape/you/Marmot to be clear (most ppl that said the same came in afterwards). Unless your world view is extremely wrong and theres 2 wolves including me in the towncore, then wolf!me would've had to have decided to just clear all the correct villagers, and then pray that I can successfully endgame. And I promise you, I'm not that confident in my late game wolfing in order to pick that strategy.

I know you don't have a ton of meta of my forum style, but I think you've heard me talk about the fact that my best wolf performances has been to post well early and then skate that to victory with the clears I got. And if I'm picking a strat that's likely to leave me pretty alone towards several days at the end, then goddamn would I have to WIM it up in those later stages.

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:22 pm I know my opinion means exactly 0 to you wisdom but idont think SS is wolfing here. I think his process has come through pretty fairly in his posts. I also think he's sticking to his reads like he did that one WC game a long time ago

Sorry if I make it sound like I don't listen to you Dya! I agree SS is most likely town but if I'm misreading any of my town reads it's probably him.

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:28 pm

Wisdom wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:17 pm Wolves could have had knowledge of NAX being PR though!

Well it's possible. But that's another "if" that has to be true. Sure, I'm not saying you should clear me from that point alone, but that should be another reason to add ONTO all the other reasons why I'm town this game.

I also pushed for the Alison shot right before you shot it. And I was one of the main voices/forces to push for Sean/Cape/you/Marmot to be clear (most ppl that said the same came in afterwards). Unless your world view is extremely wrong and theres 2 wolves including me in the towncore, then wolf!me would've had to have decided to just clear all the correct villagers, and then pray that I can successfully endgame. And I promise you, I'm not that confident in my late game wolfing in order to pick that strategy.

I know you don't have a ton of meta of my forum style, but I think you've heard me talk about the fact that my best wolf performances has been to post well early and then skate that to victory with the clears I got. And if I'm picking a strat that's likely to leave me pretty alone towards several days at the end, then goddamn would I have to WIM it up in those later stages.

That applies to all your meta, but yes, I see your point.

FWIW I'm only using meta a bit for SS since mine is a bit outdated. Mostly basing it on how he's approaching this specific game.

but I can say at least in previous games with him, he stuck around and pushed aggressively for his reads as a villager and I think he's doing that this game

@Sabiplz

D1 you went on a rant about its logical to always give you until D2 because at this point you town tell / become obvious.

Do you think you have been obvious today, yes or no? If yes, how? If no, why not?

Overall, Do you think ppl should be reading you as town this game

motherfuuuuuuu******************

too hot to read

ughhhhhhhhhxjgvxgauiyx7yxsab

Shending_Help wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 1:56 pm @Sabiplz

D1 you went on a rant about its logical to always give you until D2 because at this point you town tell / become obvious.

Do you think you have been obvious today, yes or no? If yes, how? If no, why not?

Overall, Do you think ppl should be reading you as town this game

I tried to obv town with my push on seanize but that was lackluster and after my failed read on Alison/Brad kinda lost motivation. So yea win is down. I think we are two miskill from limlo

I spent all morning applying to jobs and writing cover letters. Pretty brain dead.

why is your wim down? we have 2 dead wolves on d2 and an elimination to go

people i wouldn't yeet today
Cape90
DrWilgy
Marmot
Seanzie
Spacedaisy
Wisdom

people i think are compatible with alison but not sure if i'd yeet today: Shending_Help

people i would yeet today
dyachei
falcon45ca
sabiplz

i will write words on the bottom four

dya
falcon
sabi
ss/shending

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

i do think dya could be bussing falcon here ftr.

Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:57 am I can’t recall why I leaned town on dya before, I’ll have to look back at what they said.

i know you're sick, but this would be super helpful cos i have them as wolf atm and semi in my tunnel after jack flipped town.

dyachei wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:09 am

Marmot wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:14 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:58 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:54 pm

dyachei wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:48 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:48 pm Yup. Oh well. Anybody get shot? I’m watching JP1 with kids. Arguably irresponsible.

no one died this time

Dya, what are your reads atm?

v
jack
SS/Shending
wilgy

lean v
wisdom
seanzie

null
dunya

Lean w
sabi
falcon

mechanical claims:
falcon maybe
sabi
marmot

How about Cape?

I've liked a couple things from them but not enough to lock them in as anything

doesnt that make them null like me?

Wisdom wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:35 pm Falcon got 4 shots? I mean, bussing happens, but after 2 wolves already got nuked? Weh, don't wanna punt Falcon today.

this is exactly why bussing happens, especially if falcon has irl reasons preventing him from participating.