Re: [DAY 5] Harry Potter Mafia
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:35 pm
ebwop - not that I'm reading them as frustrated, but because blah blah blah GOD! I'm long winded!
Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?Märet Jonsdotter wrote: Mary comes across as a cornered baddie, IMO. But the people making the biggest waves HAVE NOT been getting lynched. That's obvious.
Katharina, I really enjoyed your post. I forgot about your case on Karin. If we are to vote a low poster, I think that would not be a bad place to start.Katharina Henot wrote:Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?Märet Jonsdotter wrote: Mary comes across as a cornered baddie, IMO. But the people making the biggest waves HAVE NOT been getting lynched. That's obvious.
S~V~S wrote:LADIES~ It's a game, let's be kind. This isn't the dark ages, ladies do say "fuck", but as always, they use it for emphasis, not as a weapon![]()
If one of those other witches is annoying you, walk away
Why?Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Katharina, I really enjoyed your post. I forgot about your case on Karin. If we are to vote a low poster, I think that would not be a bad place to start.Katharina Henot wrote:Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?Märet Jonsdotter wrote: Mary comes across as a cornered baddie, IMO. But the people making the biggest waves HAVE NOT been getting lynched. That's obvious.
Why do you say this? It sounds...ominous, for lack of a better word. I am willing to trust you here, are you that sure?Jennet Bierley wrote:Mary better be the one who goes today, not you.Entjen Gillis wrote:I'm still out so hopefully can get a more organized list of suspects going later. I have spent a lot of time defending myself so it has been hard to formulate my opinion. I doubtAgnes Sampson wrote:Okay Entjen then who do you think is bad? The only person being discussed that I see right now is Mary, who I will get to in a bit. We need to be talking about more than one person in order to see which way the discussions head toward. As you have said before yourself there is more than one baddie out there.
I have thoughts on other players that I'm trying to get organized, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on other players as well.
I will make it much longer though so I'd like to give the civs a few parting words if I am the one to go.
...Alizon Device wrote:Why?Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Katharina, I really enjoyed your post. I forgot about your case on Karin. If we are to vote a low poster, I think that would not be a bad place to start.Katharina Henot wrote:Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?Märet Jonsdotter wrote: Mary comes across as a cornered baddie, IMO. But the people making the biggest waves HAVE NOT been getting lynched. That's obvious.
I'm sorry, but did you read my most recent posts?Malin Matsdotter wrote:I COMPLETELY agree with Alizon about the gambler's fallacy committed by Maret.
1. We started going after low-posters.
2. We lynched a civvie.
3. Maret got really nervous and asked a vague, in my opinion, unhelpful question trying to steer us away from low posters.
4. Maret seemed to get really angry at me for not agreeing with her position.
To me, this sems like we got awfully close last time, and Maret is trying to steer us away before we get a baddie.
I do not, however, agree with Alizon, an anything, apparently. Steer us away from what? Other low posters? We need to look at what people are actually saying and doing. Low posters have a better chance of being civvie from a solely probablility point of view, percentages, etc.Malin Matsdotter wrote:I COMPLETELY agree with Alizon about the gambler's fallacy committed by Maret.
1. We started going after low-posters.
2. We lynched a civvie.
3. Maret got really nervous and asked a vague, in my opinion, unhelpful question trying to steer us away from low posters.
4. Maret seemed to get really angry at me for not agreeing with her position.
To me, this sems like we got awfully close last time, and Maret is trying to steer us away before we get a baddie.
Märet Jonsdotter wrote:I'm sorry, but did you read my most recent posts?Malin Matsdotter wrote:I COMPLETELY agree with Alizon about the gambler's fallacy committed by Maret.
1. We started going after low-posters.
2. We lynched a civvie.
3. Maret got really nervous and asked a vague, in my opinion, unhelpful question trying to steer us away from low posters.
4. Maret seemed to get really angry at me for not agreeing with her position.
To me, this sems like we got awfully close last time, and Maret is trying to steer us away before we get a baddie.
I am voting you now.Märet Jonsdotter wrote:...Alizon Device wrote:Why?Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Katharina, I really enjoyed your post. I forgot about your case on Karin. If we are to vote a low poster, I think that would not be a bad place to start.Katharina Henot wrote:Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?Märet Jonsdotter wrote: Mary comes across as a cornered baddie, IMO. But the people making the biggest waves HAVE NOT been getting lynched. That's obvious.
Yup.Merga Bien wrote:Steer us away from what? Other low posters?
Flase. Low posters have an equal chance of being bad as anyone else IF you assume random distribution, which there is no reason to assume. If low posting is considered an effective baddie strategy, then they have a better chance of being baddie.Merga Bien wrote:Low posters have a better chance of being civvie from a solely probablility point of view, percentages, etc.
So a low poster has a 1/8 chance of being bad, and a high poster has a 1/ chance of being bad.Merga Bien wrote:Lets say we have 24 players, 16 civvies, 8 baddies.
Any person has a one in 16 chance of being a civvie, and only one in 8 of being bad.
Flase. High posters high post because they are bored. Low posters lay low because they realize that high posters get lynched, and they want to win.Merga Bien wrote: Going after low posters solely for low posting (and low posters low post because they are bored, which is less likely with teammates and a chatroom) is a baddie play after maybe day 2.
I worded this badly; you have 16 chances out of 24 to be civ, and only 8 out of 24 to be bad. That was what I mean. Sorry, maths fail.Merga Bien wrote:Lets say we have 24 players, 16 civvies, 8 baddies.
Any person has a one in 16 chance of being a civvie, and only one in 8 of being bad.
Going after low posters solely for low posting (and low posters low post because they are bored, which is less likely with teammates and a chatroom) is a baddie play after maybe day 2.
If the low posters are letting the high posters take the flak (which is all that's been going on), then YES really.Merga Bien wrote:We have some really good serious discussion going on about several people, and you want to lynch low posters? Really?
Nope. I want to lynch the person desperately trying to get us not to lynch them.Merga Bien wrote:We have some really good serious discussion going on about several people, and you want to lynch low posters? Really?
Have you no opinion on Jonsdotter?Merga Bien wrote:Actually, I thought that that was me, I am the one trying desperately to not get you to lynch them.
This is so interesting, so long till the poll ends, and such a spread.
I intend to work hard to keep the thread focus on Mary and Entjen.
Katharina, I really enjoyed your post. I forgot about your case on Karin. If we are to vote a low poster, I think that would not be a bad place to start.Alizon Device wrote:
Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?
IMO it seemed like some impulse voting. I don't know if its just how I was reading some of these interactions but it seemed like some tempers flaring and just voting because of some disagreements going on. (probably not the best way to describe it, but I am at a loss for the correct wording I am looking for at the moment)Merga Bien wrote:So Entjen, what do you think of Alizon & Malin voting for Maret since she does not want to lynch low posters? I know I am over simplifying, but that is pretty much what it amounts to.
Are you even reading my posts?Malin Matsdotter wrote:Nope. I want to lynch the person desperately trying to get us not to lynch them.Merga Bien wrote:We have some really good serious discussion going on about several people, and you want to lynch low posters? Really?
*votes Maret*
What?Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Are you even reading my posts?Malin Matsdotter wrote:Nope. I want to lynch the person desperately trying to get us not to lynch them.Merga Bien wrote:We have some really good serious discussion going on about several people, and you want to lynch low posters? Really?
*votes Maret*
Actually, I am holding my vote as well. I liked Jennets points, and did not like Marys reactions to them. Several people surprised me tonight. I am seeing more baddies than spots into which to slot them. We shall see.Entjen Gillis wrote:IMO it seemed like some impulse voting. I don't know if its just how I was reading some of these interactions but it seemed like some tempers flaring and just voting because of some disagreements going on. (probably not the best way to describe it, but I am at a loss for the correct wording I am looking for at the moment)Merga Bien wrote:So Entjen, what do you think of Alizon & Malin voting for Maret since she does not want to lynch low posters? I know I am over simplifying, but that is pretty much what it amounts to.
Even though you clearly think I am bad, I am still open to all options but am more willing to listen to those willing to give me a chance at this point.
I would like to not have to vote to save myself, but it seems highly unlikely this game so I will be holding my vote for now.
You're clearly not. You're clearly either ignoring facts or changing them to fit your narrative.Malin Matsdotter wrote:What?Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Are you even reading my posts?Malin Matsdotter wrote:Nope. I want to lynch the person desperately trying to get us not to lynch them.Merga Bien wrote:We have some really good serious discussion going on about several people, and you want to lynch low posters? Really?
*votes Maret*
Which ones in the middle?Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Katharina, I really enjoyed your post. I forgot about your case on Karin. If we are to vote a low poster, I think that would not be a bad place to start.Katharina Henot wrote:Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?Märet Jonsdotter wrote: Mary comes across as a cornered baddie, IMO. But the people making the biggest waves HAVE NOT been getting lynched. That's obvious.
However, I find Mary and Entjen suspicious. Mary moreso.
And by biggest waves, I think perhaps, there may be baddies hiding in the middle--but still, pulling strings. It's a thought, and I brought it up earlier, to which someone shot me down very quickly. I wanted feedback on it. It was an idea I had not fully developed.
again I have to ask specifically which low posters outside of my case which is strong and I'm undecided on?Alizon Device wrote:If the low posters are letting the high posters take the flak (which is all that's been going on), then YES really.Merga Bien wrote:We have some really good serious discussion going on about several people, and you want to lynch low posters? Really?
Merga Bien wrote:I can think of one low poster I bet the lot of you wishes you had lynched previously
I should have been abed ages ago, good night Witches
Why?[/quote]Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Katharina, I really enjoyed your post. I forgot about your case on Karin. If we are to vote a low poster, I think that would not be a bad place to start.Alizon Device wrote:
Which people do you think are making the biggest waves? And why should we vote them?
Please stay tuned, my case is incoming. Quotes and everything.Katharina Henot wrote:In the end - I'd like a case please. Like a real live one . with quotes and everything.
Rebecca has not posted since her "oh yea, thanks for reminding me I had things I need to address I'll be on that chop chop!" post.Jane Southworth wrote:Sorry for checking in so late in the Day, folks. It's been a busy few days for this witch. I can see I've already missed a lot of discussion today, which to be honest is a bit refreshing because it seems like we haven't had a day this productive since the game started. And welcome back, Agnes!
I cannot believe people are still pushing the lynching of low posters after yesterday's debacle. Frankly, while a lot of good points have been made today, I find it odd that no one has tried to go through what went down yesterday with the Margaret Pearson lynch. There was a lot of guilt free behavior during that lynch and I think it's currently being swept under the rug. I'm also wondering why, if we are talking about low posters still, more has not been made of the case on Karin. Karin got 3 votes yesterday for only talking about the professors, then she missed the vote and never really explained why. Today, she is not really discussed at all, even though the vague idea of lynching a low poster is being tossed around. People bring up "let's lynch the low posters" without actually going through and considering specific suspects, then at the end of the day a lynchmob randomly forms around a baddie-approve low poster, and a student dies.
Agnes, I understand some of the points you made about Entjen but I do not necessarily agree with your conclusions. I was worried as well that she wasn't really trying to actively baddie hunt and was only defending herself, but she does seem to be participating in the conversation more today than in the past. I don't see myself voting for Entjen today but I'm willing to keep an open mind about her for the future.. I look forward to hearing your thoughts about other players when you're finished reading.
It does look like Malin jumped on Maret for simply asking a question. I think that may be a misunderstanding, because to be honest I wasn't really sure what kind of points either of them were trying to make against the other. When I don't understand an arguments, it usually means civ on civ, or at least it usually does to me. I don't see myself voting for either of them.
I also find Mary's vote for Karin yesterday to be suspicious since it does seem like the only thing Mary is interested in talking about is the professors, but that was essentially the entire case on Karin yesterday when Mary voted for her. That seems hypocritical to me. I can see myself voting for Mary today. Mary, do you suspect anyone of being a death eater? Why are you content to settle on someone you think is a professor? Do you have some valid reason to be afraid of them? And why don't you have stronger suspicions worth voting on?
Alizon, while I agree that it is likely that at least one, if not more of the baddies are playing the silent game underneath their socks, I don't think it's a good place for us to start our search for the Death eaters there. It is smarter to find a talkative baddie first, get her out of the game before she does any more damage, right? And hopefully once we get our first mafia lynch, we'll have some breadcrumbs to follow, perhaps allowing us to pinpoint the witch's quieter teammates. There is at least one witch playing keeper for her mafia quidditch team.
But Alizon did not end up voting for a low poster, she voted for Maret and quite abruptly. Alizon, what makes you so convinced about Maret? Can you point to specific things and why those things convinced you to vote for Maret?
And has anyone heard from Rebecca?
THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS THISJane Southworth wrote:I cannot believe people are still pushing the lynching of low posters after yesterday's debacle. Frankly, while a lot of good points have been made today, I find it odd that no one has tried to go through what went down yesterday with the Margaret Pearson lynch. There was a lot of guilt free behavior during that lynch and I think it's currently being swept under the rug. I'm also wondering why, if we are talking about low posters still, more has not been made of the case on Karin. Karin got 3 votes yesterday for only talking about the professors, then she missed the vote and never really explained why. Today, she is not really discussed at all, even though the vague idea of lynching a low poster is being tossed around. People bring up "let's lynch the low posters" without actually going through and considering specific suspects, then at the end of the day a lynchmob randomly forms around a baddie-approve low poster, and a student dies.
Here's the thing, though, I'm not trying to make any points on Malin or Alizon. I don't want to lynch either one of them at this time. They, however, have decided I am bad with almost zero reasoning, and seemingly-- without reading my posts.Jane Southworth wrote:It does look like Malin jumped on Maret for simply asking a question. I think that may be a misunderstanding, because to be honest I wasn't really sure what kind of points either of them were trying to make against the other. When I don't understand an arguments, it usually means civ on civ, or at least it usually does to me. I don't see myself voting for either of them.
The reason why I am even remotely looking Alizon's way is this. Both she and Malin scream, "LOOK AT LOW POSTERS" and then they both vote me. WTF I'm one of the highest posters in the game.Jane Southworth wrote:But Alizon did not end up voting for a low poster, she voted for Maret and quite abruptly. Alizon, what makes you so convinced about Maret? Can you point to specific things and why those things convinced you to vote for Maret?
I very much do not mean you.Katharina Henot wrote:
Which ones in the middle?
for all you say here, I could be the one in the middle that you are speaking of and I KNOW I have the civ's best interests at heart...
typo'dMäret Jonsdotter wrote:Here's the thing, though, I'm not trying to make any points on Malin or Alizon. I didn't want to lynch either one of them at this time. They, however, have decided I am bad with almost zero reasoning, and seemingly-- without reading my posts.Jane Southworth wrote:It does look like Malin jumped on Maret for simply asking a question. I think that may be a misunderstanding, because to be honest I wasn't really sure what kind of points either of them were trying to make against the other. When I don't understand an arguments, it usually means civ on civ, or at least it usually does to me. I don't see myself voting for either of them.
Mary Eastey wrote:The TeachersBarbara Kollerin wrote:To Entjen and Mary, wtf are you talking about? I see only one baddie team?
Mary Eastey wrote:Really, you're going to assume that a team of four players, all with secret roles is friendly to civvies?Barbara Kollerin wrote:Voldemort is listed as killing every night. That's one baddie team.
And do you really think McGonagall is a baddie? What kind of messed up game setup would that be?
Which is immediately followed by this post from Entjen...Mary Eastey wrote:Oh come on! This is different then an indie role, this is a whole damn team! We know nothing about them! Are you really going to sit there and assume they are good? What the hell are you on, and can I have some?
And a little bit later, AP, our lovely co-host, cleared things up with this particular post...Entjen Gillis wrote:Lovely hosts, any chance we can get some win conditions?
I voted her on Day 4 and this was her response...A Person wrote:To clear up a bit of confusion we're seeing, the students are civs, the teachers are (independent) indies, and Voldy & co are baddies.
But I vote her again on Day 5 immediately for the reasons here in my case, because I'm certain she's bad, and I wanted to gauge her reaction again. I was not let down. She followed it up with a nice, lengthy rebuttal, which finished off with this...Mary Eastey wrote:Look, I was wrong. I admit it. But, we still don't know the Teacher's win conditions. Obviously, I'm focusing more on Voldy and the Death Eaters. I still have a raised eyebrow towards the Teachers. Also, get your facts straight. I voted for Entjen on Day 3. Not Krystyna. Why are you spreading false facts about me?Jennet Bierley wrote:
Mary Eastey has given me the highest ping out of active players. Yes she was Lunafied yesterday, so she fell off my radar completely. However she was trying to spread discord among us about the professors not being pro-town. She's also had a vote on every single lynched player this game so far. If I don't decide to vote an inactive player, Mary would be my choice.
Mary has also been very keen to find out my role ever since I've been making my case on her, and frankly, she only seems to be trying to make a case on me because I've made one for her. Not only this, but she questions my quick vote, and followed it up with a quick vote. Here is the important thing about my survived night kill. There was a certain important event held Night 2, and for those who care to check, my name does not show up on the polls for Day 3, and so I couldn't be lynched. Those two events are correlated, as is my survival on Night 3. Anyway, my survival clearly states that the Death Eaters attempted to kill me, but says nothing about my role, or whether I'm a professor or not. Her conclusion that I am a professor and should be lynched not only has no foundation, but it is VERY counter-intuitive.Mary Eastey wrote:So, let's say Jennet is a teacher, what should we do about it? A clarification from A Person says that the Students are civvies, the Teachers are indies, and Voldemort's Army are baddies. Unfortunately, I haven't really gotten much of a feel for anyone else, except maybe Entjen in terms of baddies. At this point, I'm open to lynching an indie because I feel like it would be very informative as to what their purpose is, and who the others are.
*votes Jennet*
I can definitely agree with this, but like I said, we've got other players that should go first. There are baddies in both groups.Katharina Henot wrote: FWIW - I'm not pushing a vote on low posters, just sayin' if there's a baddie there, this is where my feels are.![]()
Could you point out real quick what went down with Margaret's lynch? Also, I'm glad you said something, but I don't wish to sweep it under the rug. I'm still watching people, but I have one objective today.Jane Southworth wrote:I cannot believe people are still pushing the lynching of low posters after yesterday's debacle. Frankly, while a lot of good points have been made today, I find it odd that no one has tried to go through what went down yesterday with the Margaret Pearson lynch. There was a lot of guilt free behavior during that lynch and I think it's currently being swept under the rug. I'm also wondering why, if we are talking about low posters still, more has not been made of the case on Karin. Karin got 3 votes yesterday for only talking about the professors, then she missed the vote and never really explained why. Today, she is not really discussed at all, even though the vague idea of lynching a low poster is being tossed around. People bring up "let's lynch the low posters" without actually going through and considering specific suspects, then at the end of the day a lynchmob randomly forms around a baddie-approve low poster, and a student dies.
That's Jennet to you.Katharina Henot wrote:I agree with you on both counts Jannet.
I want - just for crossing t's and dotting i's sake at this point - because I can see the case - look at All of mary's posts back to back, tomorrow. I'm guessing I'll still have the same feels I have now, but ya know, leave no stone unturned and all that...