The Syndicate

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 pm

Allcrab wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:11 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:10 pm @Allcrab, do you have any clue who is going to be night-killed by the mafia?

Probs Marmot.

Should I take that as you don't know or you don't want to answer?

Why would I know that?

Allcrab is town. #7997 just made me feel more than any previous post from him.

Allcrab wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 pm

Allcrab wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:11 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:10 pm @Allcrab, do you have any clue who is going to be night-killed by the mafia?

Probs Marmot.

Should I take that as you don't know or you don't want to answer?

Why would I know that?

I mean, I know what clues I have. Do you know if you have any clue?

Or would you rather not answer?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:14 pm Allcrab is town. #7997 just made me feel more than any previous post from him.

I'm not sure if you're thinking about the same thing I am.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:15 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:14 pm Allcrab is town. #7997 just made me feel more than any previous post from him.

I'm not sure if you're thinking about the same thing I am.

I don't know what you're thinking about or what your read on Allcrab is.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:14 pm Allcrab is town. #7997 just made me feel more than any previous post from him.

I read every Cafe player correctly (cept Seanzie I guess) and me being lazy is what gets you to village read me.

Wut?

Allcrab wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:17 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:14 pm Allcrab is town. #7997 just made me feel more than any previous post from him.

I read every Cafe player correctly (cept Seanzie I guess) and me being lazy is what gets you to village read me.

Wut?

Not "being lazy" so much as a lack of desire to bother with the perceived inevitable Alison fight with regard to Martin.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:16 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:15 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:14 pm Allcrab is town. #7997 just made me feel more than any previous post from him.

I'm not sure if you're thinking about the same thing I am.

I don't know what you're thinking about or what your read on Allcrab is.

Well I think depending on how they answer this it'll improve it mildy. Otherwise it won't really change my read of them.

Anyone can read people correctly, especially mafia. I don't care much about that at this point. Otherwise I am not entertaining Alison as a suspect.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:18 pm Well I think depending on how they answer this it'll improve it mildy. Otherwise it won't really change my read of them.

I'm seeing increasingly few worlds where you are a civilian.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:19 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:18 pm Well I think depending on how they answer this it'll improve it mildy. Otherwise it won't really change my read of them.

I'm seeing increasingly few worlds where you are a civilian.

There's only one correct world. As long as you got one then I don't particularly care about how many worlds you got.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:22 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:19 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:18 pm Well I think depending on how they answer this it'll improve it mildy. Otherwise it won't really change my read of them.

I'm seeing increasingly few worlds where you are a civilian.

There's only one correct world. As long as you got one then I don't particularly care about how many worlds you got.

Who are the mafia? Who is the poisoner? Gun to your head.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:22 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:22 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:19 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:18 pm Well I think depending on how they answer this it'll improve it mildy. Otherwise it won't really change my read of them.

I'm seeing increasingly few worlds where you are a civilian.

There's only one correct world. As long as you got one then I don't particularly care about how many worlds you got.

Who are the mafia? Who is the poisoner? Gun to your head.

I believe I answered this question recently.

I'm currently seeing if there's even a slight chance I may be wrong on All-Crab.

It would be unfortunate if he were town and my dying wish is that he's the real poisoner.

All it takes is 2 mischops to lose the game and I didn't realize that until recenlty that even if I were right on mafia, if I were wrong on poisoner the potentially the game could be lost in part due to my confirmation bias.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:25 pm I believe I answered this question recently.

I'm currently seeing if there's even a slight chance I may be wrong on All-Crab.

I just reviewed some of the Sonny/orangecrush and Mac interactions. Please tell me what you think of that.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:28 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:25 pm I believe I answered this question recently.

I'm currently seeing if there's even a slight chance I may be wrong on All-Crab.

I just reviewed some of the Sonny/orangecrush and Mac interactions. Please tell me what you think of that.

I'm not evaluating him for being mafia. I'm evaluating him for being the poisoner.

I think I've long considered (on D3 iirc when I thought Hawk was mafia) that Allcrab would have poor mafia teammate compatibility. I realize that doesn't really hold up as much anymore since that seems to apply to just about everyone alive now.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:30 pm I'm not evaluating him for being mafia. I'm evaluating him for being the poisoner.

I think I've long considered (on D3 iirc when I thought Hawk was mafia) that Allcrab would have poor mafia teammate compatibility. I realize that doesn't really hold up as much anymore since that seems to apply to just about everyone alive now.

You suggested the reverse this morning. If Allcrab is now a mafia suspect instead, what changed to take him out of the poisoner slot and why does Mac move over to poisoner instead of someone else?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:33 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:30 pm I'm not evaluating him for being mafia. I'm evaluating him for being the poisoner.

I think I've long considered (on D3 iirc when I thought Hawk was mafia) that Allcrab would have poor mafia teammate compatibility. I realize that doesn't really hold up as much anymore since that seems to apply to just about everyone alive now.

You suggested the reverse this morning. If Allcrab is now a mafia suspect instead, what changed to take him out of the poisoner slot and why does Mac move over to poisoner instead of someone else?

I don't think that says what you think it does.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:33 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:30 pm I'm not evaluating him for being mafia. I'm evaluating him for being the poisoner.

I think I've long considered (on D3 iirc when I thought Hawk was mafia) that Allcrab would have poor mafia teammate compatibility. I realize that doesn't really hold up as much anymore since that seems to apply to just about everyone alive now.

You suggested the reverse this morning. If Allcrab is now a mafia suspect instead, what changed to take him out of the poisoner slot and why does Mac move over to poisoner instead of someone else?

This (as linked above):

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:38 am My current world solve has Mac + Made as mafia and Allcrab as the most likely poisoner.

Doesn't suggest the reverse.

If you're referring to the hypothetical earlier this day phase, which is the only time I've suggested Allcrab could be mafia recently:

It was a hypothetical world that I found unlikely.

You gave me an irrefutable green-check of both Made and Mac. That really changes things if so and would heavily suggest my view of the game is inherently wrong in some way. Such as potentially over-evaluating compatibility.

In no way was that post implying that I thought he was actually mafia.

Allcrab wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:33 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:30 pm I'm not evaluating him for being mafia. I'm evaluating him for being the poisoner.

I think I've long considered (on D3 iirc when I thought Hawk was mafia) that Allcrab would have poor mafia teammate compatibility. I realize that doesn't really hold up as much anymore since that seems to apply to just about everyone alive now.

You suggested the reverse this morning. If Allcrab is now a mafia suspect instead, what changed to take him out of the poisoner slot and why does Mac move over to poisoner instead of someone else?

I don't think that says what you think it does.

The link refers to Martin saying his mafia picks are Made and Mac, and his poisoner is you. Now his poisoner is Mac (click for context) and you are being considered for mafia. That's what I am asking about.

What do you mean?

Martin I asked you what you thought of the Mac/Sonnycrush interactions and you told me you're not considering him for mafia, you're considering him for poisoner. What did you mean?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:40 pm Martin I asked you what you thought of the Mac/Sonnycrush interactions and you told me you're not considering him for mafia, you're considering him for poisoner. What did you mean?

I think Martin thought you meant OC/me and Mac/Me interactions when you meant OC/Mac interactions.

Martin's second line doesn't make sense otherwise I think.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:40 pm Martin I asked you what you thought of the Mac/Sonnycrush interactions and you told me you're not considering him for mafia, you're considering him for poisoner. What did you mean?

You directed me to interactions with mafia members; mafia don't have full knowledge of who the 3P is in most circumstances.

Thus, anything they said in those interactions would not really be relevant to a !poisoner Allcrab viewpoint. Only a !mafia Allcrab viewpoint.

So when I say that I'm not considering him for mafia in response to that, and am only considering him as poisoner

That is very much what it means.

I don't think Allcrab is plausibly mafia.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:44 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:40 pm Martin I asked you what you thought of the Mac/Sonnycrush interactions and you told me you're not considering him for mafia, you're considering him for poisoner. What did you mean?

You directed me to interactions with mafia members; mafia don't have full knowledge of who the 3P is in most circumstances.

Thus, anything they said in those interactions would not really be relevant to a !poisoner Allcrab viewpoint. Only a !mafia Allcrab viewpoint.

So when I say that I'm not considering him for mafia in response to that, and am only considering him as poisoner

That is very much what it means.

I don't think Allcrab is plausibly mafia.

Martin I asked you about Mac, not about Allcrab. Please answer me about Mac.

My question has zero to do with Allcrab or the poisoner.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:44 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:44 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:40 pm Martin I asked you what you thought of the Mac/Sonnycrush interactions and you told me you're not considering him for mafia, you're considering him for poisoner. What did you mean?

You directed me to interactions with mafia members; mafia don't have full knowledge of who the 3P is in most circumstances.

Thus, anything they said in those interactions would not really be relevant to a !poisoner Allcrab viewpoint. Only a !mafia Allcrab viewpoint.

So when I say that I'm not considering him for mafia in response to that, and am only considering him as poisoner

That is very much what it means.

I don't think Allcrab is plausibly mafia.

Martin I asked you about Mac, not about Allcrab. Please answer me about Mac.

Oh. I thought you were trying to engage with me further on what I was focusing on given the timing and your past post on Allcrab.

Thanks for tolerating my interrogations, folks. I want us to be maximally prepared in the event of a Made town flip, and even if he's mafia I want the rest as sorted as possible before Night 5. We're kind of floating in this game, and it concerns me -- the town lead is not comfortable as long as two factions continue to kill town exclusively.

I did have a mild look-through of those interactions earlier with regards to Mac. My current stance is that one of Made/Mac is mafia. GTH, as said before, it would be both of them.

It would surprise me if both were green. If Made somehow flips green though I will be putting more consideration into my mafia-hunting thoughts than I would if he flips red.

Regardless, I will look at Mac more in the future. Just more-so on Mac and others if Made flips green because atp town's in a problematic situation most likely.

My issue is that if both of them are green (which Made flipping green may imply wrt my solve) then I'm curious as to why Alison hasn't shot Mac or something already; Alison would be a potential mafia candidate consideration that I would be forced to take as explained before.

I recognize we have great players here but my immediate thought is that Mac + Alison have wolfed together in the past and therefore he may be on some level of priority. I don't have the experience nor meta-knowledge to have full confidence in that, but its better than being paranoid with less confidence.

What's held you back from placing a vote, Martin?

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:55 pm Mac + Alison have wolfed together in the past

I remember the name now. That space invaders game thing.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:58 pm What's held you back from placing a vote, Martin?

Personal ego in the hopes of saying (aside from my non-impactful Owner vote that I'll pretend isn't there) to say that If town wins then I've won without having voted a scum and managed to get a town with the same role and alignment as me executed.

Seems kinda amusing/funny to me. But I'll place a vote if I ever find it necessary.

I really need to watch for typos and grammar errors more.

Is Made usually a low poster?

vote: martin smh

I'm here to fight alison

Allcrab wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:04 am Is Made usually a low poster?

I'd say his posting rate is all over the map. I've seen him low post and I've seen him post a lot. He probably trends more low than high.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:04 am vote: martin smh

why

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:05 am

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:04 am vote: martin smh

why

I want to know what alison thinks

cool

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:15 pm

Allcrab wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 pm

Allcrab wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:11 pm

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:10 pm @Allcrab, do you have any clue who is going to be night-killed by the mafia?

Probs Marmot.

Should I take that as you don't know or you don't want to answer?

Why would I know that?

I mean, I know what clues I have. Do you know if you have any clue?

Or would you rather not answer?

The point of this was to see what Allcrab was thinking. Gave some time but they didn't choose to answer.

I was curious as to why they seem to be choosing who to watch based on poisoner rather than anything else, and felt that asking if they were considering mafia night-kills at all as a better question.

Allcrab wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:14 pm Nobody targeted mac last night.

Figured poisoner MO was to go after people on the fringe of the PoE which was kinda right they were a bit more direct than I expected and I guessed wrong, sorry.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:51 pm I did have a mild look-through of those interactions earlier with regards to Mac. My current stance is that one of Made/Mac is mafia. GTH, as said before, it would be both of them.

It would surprise me if both were green. If Made somehow flips green though I will be putting more consideration into my mafia-hunting thoughts than I would if he flips red.

Regardless, I will look at Mac more in the future. Just more-so on Mac and others if Made flips green because atp town's in a problematic situation most likely.

I really struggle to understand how suddenly after going to sleep yesterday feeling sleepwalking as a member of the towncore suddenly almost everyone in the game has me in the POE with the exception of Made (which I find very strange for him in particular) and Esooa and TSP who both just subbed into the game and neither of whom can actually be mafia outside of crazy worlds (in Esooa's case). It 100% feels to me like opportunism based on the fact that Papa Jay decided Mac was a suspect. I must ask myself the question that if he did not do that, would you actually be pushing me as your primary POE suspect and the answer is exceedingly obviously no you would not be, because you had not been. I feel the exact same way about Alison. So I actually probably have my answer about who the mafia are.

Allcrab wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:04 am Is Made usually a low poster?

It's a mixed bag. I think it is NAI for him.

Allcrab wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:14 pm Nobody targeted mac last night.

Figured poisoner MO was to go after people on the fringe of the PoE which was kinda right they were a bit more direct than I expected and I guessed wrong, sorry.

And yeah I am trying to get poisoner identity over wolves cuz that's gonna be WAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY harder to get if we gotta do it the old fashioned way.

I wanna vote martin today but out of respect for Alison's read I'll try made first.

This actually reads like a poisoner claim tbh.

Part of me wants to work with the fresh eyes from Esooa and Tony both calling Mac town. Which leaves me in a place where two mafia are contained within [Made, Alison, Martin] -- something I'd call perfectly believable.

@MacDougall the brand new Crowded House album has dropped.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:17 am It 100% feels to me like opportunism based on the fact that Papa Jay decided Mac was a suspect

You're not entirely wrong to read it that way.

I am using the thread in part to help me solve, as I have been for most of the game. Inevitably some suggestions by the thread I will accept if I agree with them.

Perhaps I'm unfair to say so, but I doubt Mac and Alison are both still here if both of them are town. There were excuses to justify it for a while (really only the Dana death), but at this point nah. Tracker isn't so strong that Seanzie has to be the kill period.

gd I knew trying to explain my logic was gonna be a problem because I broke the sacred not allowed to go for 3p until all wolves are dead rule kek.

But here's the thing poisoner doesn't really have TMI so they're harder to catch through thread interactions and I was trying to save us the headache of that.