The Syndicate

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:53 pm**

If Made flips town my current pick for mafia is Alison + Martin.

If Made flips mafia, the general POE progression continues.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:58 pm**

Mac should also be getting more attention as a poisoner candidate.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 2:59 pm**

I'd be surprised personally if the poisoner isn't among the people with no claims. The only claims that seem poisoner-friendly are Allcrab's and lost monkey's. I'd go with Mac, Made, or Tony before those two for poisoner at the moment.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:01 pm**

Scanning Seanzie's posts for hints about who he might have targeted. The only thing I can find that might be a coded message involves me on Day 2/Night 2:

Seanzie wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 9:31 pm Now, your story about having been given a gift kind of fits how you've been playing, but even then, I don't remember who it was, but you got into a spat with someone about that and seemed strangely defensive about it. Almost as if you jumped at an opportunity to try to clear Owner, but then kind of realized that your story didn't make much sense and backtracked (Owner wouldn't have targeted you, blah blah blah).

Seanzie wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 3:04 pm but Sloon should be watched if he is alive towards the end.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:02 pm**

I forgot about Martin's claim. That's also poisoner friendly and he can remain a candidate.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:09 pm**

I’d appreciate if others could make judgment calls about who is mafia/poisoner in the event of Made flipping both mafia and non-mafia. Gotta be before twilight ends clearly.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:09 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:02 pm I forgot about Martin's claim. That's also poisoner friendly and he can remain a candidate.

Wouldn't call potential and willful suicide as exactly "poisoner friendly".

I think it's preety clear that people suspect me regardless of my claim and how it was conducted on D3.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:11 pm**

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:09 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:02 pm I forgot about Martin's claim. That's also poisoner friendly and he can remain a candidate.
Wouldn't call potential and willful suicide as exactly "poisoner friendly".

I think it's preety clear that people suspect me regardless of my claim and how it was conducted on D3.

You’re still here. I would call it a dangerous claim for a poisoner but not a suicidal one.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:12 pm**

I do think some pieces can fall into place to explain some of Mac’s stranger reads if he is the poisoner. Treating high-probability mafia with kids gloves helps evade kills.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:13 pm**

Martin would have been a perfect track. Alas.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:13 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:09 pm I’d appreciate if others could make judgment calls about who is mafia/poisoner in the event of Made flipping both mafia and non-mafia. Gotta be before twilight ends clearly.

If Made flips mafia then I think the Made/Mac mafia team makes sense.

That would leave TSP as the only player without a claim. That will attract its fair share of skepticism.

Among the claimed players, Martin seems the most poisoner-compatible.

If Made flips poisoner, I probably look into Alison/Mac.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:14 pm**

That means nothing though. No way I could have predicted all but one of the players to not vote me on the next day. I'm just wondering how crazy people think I am.

If I were poisoner then I certainly would know that I would be counter-claimed.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:15 pm**

I would argue that even though I've played FM for about one year (~10-11 months to be exact) to do what I did, if poisoner, would be viewed extremely risky per my self-consciousness and I wouldn't do it.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:16 pm**

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:14 pm That means nothing though. No way I could have predicted all but one of the players to not vote me on the next day. I'm just wondering how crazy people think I am.

If I were poisoner then I certainly would know that I would be counter-claimed.

One can argue that you did know you’d be counterclaimed. I believe Seanzie made an extensive dialogue of that.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:20 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:16 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:14 pm That means nothing though. No way I could have predicted all but one of the players to not vote me on the next day. I'm just wondering how crazy people think I am.

If I were poisoner then I certainly would know that I would be counter-claimed.
One can argue that you did know you’d be counterclaimed. I believe Seanzie made an extensive dialogue of that.

They can argue it, but it's not the case.

Seanzie is also the same person who couldn't seem to find a single town to trust very easily iirc.

He likes to conjecture when he can, and that time it was simply ridiculous. It's paranoid to think discussing possibilities while establishing a point is TMI.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:23 pm**

Additionally, we have clearly seen that the poisoner likely has unlimited shots.

I don't think I would believe there is a single 1-shot healer in this setup if I were poisoner.

Thus, without knowing the number of healer shots, I could've waited another day to warn the next and just claim 2-shot healer.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:24 pm**

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:23 pm Additionally, we have clearly seen that the poisoner likely has unlimited shots.

I don't think I would believe there is a single 1-shot healer in this setup if I were poisoner.

Thus, without knowing the number of healer shots, I could've waited another day to warn the next and just claim 2-shot healer.

The weird part to me is why two 1 shot healers when they're very likely to just overlap.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:26 pm**

Allcrab wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:24 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:23 pm Additionally, we have clearly seen that the poisoner likely has unlimited shots.

I don't think I would believe there is a single 1-shot healer in this setup if I were poisoner.

Thus, without knowing the number of healer shots, I could've waited another day to warn the next and just claim 2-shot healer.
The weird part to me is why two 1 shot healers when they're very likely to just overlap.

The only possible reasons I can imagine are:

1) They didn't want healing NK'ed on n1

2) The hosts wanted to screw us over

No meaningful way for me to glean either of these realities (or anything about the healers, except maybe they were shot or odd/even night limited) if I were poisoner.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:27 pm**

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:26 pm odd/even day

Ebwop.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:27 pm**

Martin feels town to me.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:30 pm**

Martin sounds town on tone, but I continue to have a lot of trouble understanding the arguments he makes.

I don’t understand the blurb underneath the 1-2 bullets in his last post.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:30 pm**

Day 5 has ended. It is now Twilight.

Stay tuned for End of Day.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:31 pm**

If I do understand it, it’d imply that the poisoner knows there are two healers before they clsim. Eh?

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:36 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:30 pm I don’t understand the blurb underneath the 1-2 bullets in his last post.

The point is, in connection to that, is:

1) I did in fact claim specifically 1-shot healer at the start of day 3.

2) If I am poisoner I must have come to believe that there's other healers that are 1-shot. Otherwise I could've planned to claim at another point under the belief the healers were 2-shot.

3) However, due to the 1-2 bullets and my other arguments, for me to make the mechanical determination that there's exactly a single (or two, as there could have been a mafia healer at that time) 1-shot healer would be impossible and furthermore to have complete faith in it to claim it like the way I did would be very risky.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:40 pm**

@TonyStarkPrime why did you vote Martin?

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:41 pm**

He has decent 3p equity and in my mind if his role claim is true he’s very likely a wolf

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:41 pm**

I also don’t think he sounds town contra Sloonei

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:42 pm**

Like I think it’s decently likely he’s not lying but if he’s not lying I think he’s probably a wolf

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:44 pm**

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:42 pm Like I think it’s decently likely he’s not lying but if he’s not lying I think he’s probably a wolf

I don’t argue that.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:44 pm**

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:52 pm
Dana wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:32 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:26 pm
Dana wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:22 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 1:20 pm
Dana wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 12:56 pm unsure:
hawk
made
sonny/orangecrush
allcrab
Martin
bad bunny
I would mildly doubt that mafia would right now would take the "idk" stance here when I think for most people its fairly obvious there's one town and one mafia in Martin/Hawk (and therefore have some sort of stance).

It just looks non-mafia to me given the circumstances.
I do agree that one of you is town and the other mafia im just not sold on who's who
Yeah but what I'm saying is that you would know that, and if you were mafia I would imagine you would have something more expressive on it than a readslist.

Given that mafia are currently in a bad position trying to secure their positions or standing could be preety important; normally that means taking stances. Otherwise you just fade in the background and perhaps not really move in people's read of you at all. At least in my view.

That said, not having a stance (more or less) here only seems non-mafia to me. I have no intuition telling me if this is just simply being town or not, though.
yeah that's fair. so do you think hawk's entire team is bussing her? if hawk ends up flipping town, where would you look next?
On an independent level, I'm fairly confident a number of the current Hawk voters are town. However, if we're going to assume suspicious votes or bussers, though:

Voters: Seanzie, Sloonei, Made, Actvscenei, Alison, NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME, MartinGG99, Garden Gnome, Guillotine, JaggedJimmyJay

For those in this color I wouldn't really question their vote at all. I strongly read these players as town for other reasons.

Sloonei (in this color) is a player who've I've partially sheeped other player's reads (namely my town-reads such as Alison or JJJ) on. Maybe it's because I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about it independently, but I have some trouble believing in a mafia world that contains him. It feels off if it did.

For those in this color, I do read these as a town-lean but I didn't feel entirely good about their votes. My gut has been slightly concerned about the votes being performative as these votes were in large posts that in some way or aspect stood out to me from their other posts. I could be wrong though.

For those in this color, I have no clue about them. Potentially because I may not be very good at reading them, but the same could be said for some of the other players (who are not part of this color).

I don't think I backed off at all on Hawk. Even Dana asked me what if Hawk flips town and I completely ignored it.

Also if Made is mafia I'll be happy in thinking Act + Made were suspicious votes that were potentially performative; though I was admittedly thinking more about bussing

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:46 pm**

I am pleased that Sloonei, Mac, and Alison are all here. Should there be a stinker among them (not Sloonei), the other two can still take them to task if I drop dead.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:48 pm**

Should there be two stinkers among them, POE will be hungry anyway.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:49 pm**

Just ensure y’all communicate please. That’s all I ask. I would really hate to see thread become a ghost town.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:57 pm**

Resist biases to default to the easiest answers. Only go that way if it truly feels like the correct decision. Make people play.

Good luck and god bless

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:57 pm**

I'm hoping for a mafia chop + poison and NK coincide

Going to be difficult for the night-kills and etc to not help with the POE without significant risk of overlapping imo.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:58 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:57 pm Resist biases to default to the easiest answers. Only go that way if it truly feels like the correct decision. Make people play.

Good luck and god bless

On the same note don’t tinfoil for the sake of habit. Use those heads.

Posted: **Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:00 pm**

What's cooking?

Made looked at the various ingredients spread before him. Suddenly, the meal preparation seemed like a mountainous task. He blinked several times, trying to hold his tears back. He didn’t want to be that guy. He already stood out among all the couples around him, chatting, cooking and gulping the wine in front of them.

“And now for the onions.” the instructor said.
Made hastily took a hold of one of the onions and let his knife do its magic.
The tears streamed down his face.
I always get so teary eyed when I chop onions, he grinned. Lips barely moving as he muttered to himself.
Nobody would hear him even if spoke up. The couples were too busy enjoying their date nights.

A meal for two… At least there would be enough food…
And he wouldn’t need to add salt. The heavy crying would see to that.

@Made didn’t get a sixth date.

Spoiler: show

Garden Gnome stood in her kitchen garden, studying the basil intensely. She had added some to her salad for lunch, but the taste was a strange one. She had cared for the basil to the best of her ability but didn’t seem to have thrived. How odd, she thought, her eyes fixed at the little, green herb, quivering in the light breeze. It looked innocent enough, but she had the distinct feeling she was dealing with a rather precarious, little sprout. How odd indeed.

And odder still, the basked of fresh fruits and vegetables that arrived at her door shortly after her lunch. She found the strawberries particularly pungent.

@Garden Gnome survives.

@Alison
@Allcrab
@Esooa
@JaggedJimmyJay
@lost monkey
@MacDougall
@MartinGG99
@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
@Sloonei
@TonyStarkPrime

Please sumbit any night actions at least one hour before Day 6 begins!

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:01 pm**

Flavor will come later.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME is gone but not forgotten.

Spoiler: show

Day 6 has begun! You may now post.

Spoiler: show

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:03 pm**

No poison. Perhaps Nanook was double-targeted.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:04 pm**

Nanook was the second mason!!!
All right.
I think that means that esooa is town.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:05 pm**

First instinct of the day is that one mafia and one poisoner are contained within [Mac, Martin, Alison], and Allcrab is a wild card.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:06 pm**

Technically possible Gnome is mafia. I am going to wait for someone to tell me why she is alive before I dwell further on that.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:07 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:05 pm First instinct of the day is that one mafia and one poisoner are contained within [Mac, Martin, Alison], and Allcrab is a wild card.

That sounds about right.
Oh, and you were not the target of any actions last night.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:10 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:06 pm Technically possible Gnome is mafia. I am going to wait for someone to tell me why she is alive before I dwell further on that.

Anything is possible, seeing that we weren't NKed.
I suspect that the surviving mafia person kept us alive on purpose because I am in everyone's PoE. The goal was to get all of the circumstantial evidence to point to me. Or maybe they just wanted to kill off Nanook, having figured out that he is a mason and needs to go.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:10 pm**

D1 would have probably scared the shit out of the mafia team lol.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:13 pm**

I think all crabs posts yesterday were okay. There's a chance Martin is the poisoner/mafia has knowledge indicating he is which would be why made pushed him like that (and would mean allcrab is much more likely mafia) but yeah

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:15 pm**

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:05 pm First instinct of the day is that one mafia and one poisoner are contained within [Mac, Martin, Alison], and Allcrab is a wild card.
That sounds about right.
Oh, and you were not the target of any actions last night.

I'm confused.

This isn't true because I targeted jay but they weren't targeted by anything else so ???

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:15 pm**

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:30 pm Martin sounds town on tone, but I continue to have a lot of trouble understanding the arguments he makes.

I don’t understand the blurb underneath the 1-2 bullets in his last post.

Update: You were investigated last night!

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:16 pm**

Garden Gnome wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:07 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:05 pm First instinct of the day is that one mafia and one poisoner are contained within [Mac, Martin, Alison], and Allcrab is a wild card.
That sounds about right.
Oh, and you were not the target of any actions last night.

I'll reveal what happened to Gnome a bit later.

Posted: **Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:16 pm**

Esooa wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:13 pm I think all crabs posts yesterday were okay. There's a chance Martin is the poisoner/mafia has knowledge indicating he is which would be why made pushed him like that (and would mean allcrab is much more likely mafia) but yeah

Do you have a reason for tunneling me besides one post?

The Syndicate

Cindy Kate & Percy Date Night Mafia <3 [ENDGAME]

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