The Syndicate

Wilgy, any thoughts about the shenanigans?

I have to do some double checkin', but so far I'm making the projection that Wilgy is mafia, Diiny is SK. The SK will likely target MM, Russ or me to bite the dust tonight (of course he can kill the mafia, but then he'd remain alone against 5 on D13), so if anyone can still do something about preventing the kill, please give it a shot.

Everyone else I haven't called scum, please, please, please hear my voice, move my hair. We will still have the numbers to supress the baddies, we just need to be united.

Also

Ricochet wrote:Hosts: Do we get sum love for sale tonight?

Sorry, that's "SK remaining alone against 4".

Yes, my 1 SK, 3-4 civ, 1-2 baddie fear is coming around.

We can only hope SK doesn't have 2 kills this phase.

I am extremely curious in Russ's thoughts.

Rico, I have slight inclination on your deductions, but you should know that Strawhenge, JJJ, and I may have had a similar way to come to those conclusions.

DrWilgy wrote:Yes, my 1 SK, 3-4 civ, 1-2 baddie fear is coming around.

We can only hope SK doesn't have 2 kills this phase.

I am extremely curious in Russ's thoughts.

Rico, I have slight inclination on your deductions, but you should know that Strawhenge, JJJ, and I may have had a similar way to come to those conclusions.

I don't know anything about your (pl) deductions. Mine are derived from the lynch result.

Why would Straw possibly go for MM's head, if his deductions, and yours and JJJ's, are "similar way" to the conclusion I'm getting at?

Also, SK killed twice on N11, he'll kill again once tonight (if the N9-N10 pattern resumes), except if it can be prevented.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:Also, for the record, if I'd been here in time I'd have switched to MM out of caution. I like motel room more, but MM is my #2 and I think trying to vote mostly together is smart.

Your whipping boy is dead and town. What are you going to do now?

Holy fuck. RIP motel. Sorry I was wrong about you, and sorry my vote (apparently) contributed to your demise.

I think this looks pretty bad for me, especially with the post I made about how I'd have changed my vote. I was being serious earlier, though. The poll said it ended at 6:56pm, JJJ said he saw it too. I couldn't machete back from work for a 5:56pm deadline, but I fully intended to be here for the 7pm EOD. Hosts, can you offer any insight into why the time on the poll end could have changed? And/or does anyone have a screenshot from earlier in the day?

JJJ, I dunno what to tell you. All I can really do is keep re-evaluating players and try to make up for it. MM and Wilgy were my next two highest suspects, but, along Rico's line of thinking, if I'm understanding correctly, this pretty much clears MM. It also explains his votes the past 3 days or so.

So Wilgy is my worst read at the moment. Diiny could still be bad, although as I said, he read better to me on my last reread. Rico is the only one I haven't read recently, looks like I need to get on that asap. Although I think the fact that he brought the potential manipulation to our attention is a point in his favor already, and as JJJ said, he's probably the second-hardest-working person here.

Linki: Wilgy, why more cryptic info hinting? This clearly is to helping anyone at this point.

Diiny wrote:tinfoil hats are so last year. I personally opt for the tinfoil lensless thick frame glasses. Help you tinfoil and tunnel vision at the same time, plus reflects scumbeams.

I'm really proud of scumbeams.

This is incredible.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Go Bengals

Who dey!

Russ, what would MM's past votes have to do with what happened today and who he might be?

Also are you in any way serious about backsliding about your motel vote? I believe I have a good understanding of your vote, so don't give me the heebie-jeebies now, by saying you would have definitely switched it off, especially after a day of intense case-making to support that vote.

And I'm good. Good good. Hear my voice, Russ.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

TheFloyd73 wrote:Triple J, what's the theme for the next RYM Mafia game?

Don't know yet mate, but before the next game will be Maffies 9 (awards!!! ).

Sweet, better start making a speech.

[spoiler]Please know that I'm joking. [/spoiler]

Actually, I may be an idiot.

Regardless, I still thought that you should know what I said. The only situation where it doesn't apply is if I'm horribly mistaken about how this game is working.

@Russ, it's all I can do. Why are you just questioning my cryptic info hinting when Rico made a statement like he did?

Ricochet wrote:Russ, what would MM's past votes have to do with what happened today and who he might be?

Also are you in any way serious about backsliding about your motel vote? I believe I have a good understanding of your vote, so don't give me the heebie-jeebies now, by saying you would have definitely switched it off, especially after a day of intense case-making to support that vote.

And I'm good. Good good. Hear my voice, Russ.

Well if your theory is right, it makes sense for him not to want to broadcast his role. They were made to hide, I figure.

Not trying to give you the heebie jeebies, man. motel was my biggest suspect, but MM was my clear #2. Just for different reasons than JJJ. If I had been able to be around I'd have pushed hard for a motel lynch, but with the tally what it was, if I couldn't have convinced anyone to join me, I believe I'd have switched to avoid shenanigans. I just didn't think shenanigans had actually happened when I wrote that, since a 5-2 vote looked solid.

DrWilgy wrote:Actually, I may be an idiot.

Regardless, I still thought that you should know what I said. The only situation where it doesn't apply is if I'm horribly mistaken about how this game is working.

@Russ, it's all I can do. Why are you just questioning my cryptic info hinting when Rico made a statement like he did?

Because it's possible to deduct at least in a general sense what he's talking about.

Russtifinko wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Russ, what would MM's past votes have to do with what happened today and who he might be?

Also are you in any way serious about backsliding about your motel vote? I believe I have a good understanding of your vote, so don't give me the heebie-jeebies now, by saying you would have definitely switched it off, especially after a day of intense case-making to support that vote.

And I'm good. Good good. Hear my voice, Russ.

Well if your theory is right, it makes sense for him not to want to broadcast his role. They were made to hide, I figure.

Not trying to give you the heebie jeebies, man. motel was my biggest suspect, but MM was my clear #2. Just for different reasons than JJJ. If I had been able to be around I'd have pushed hard for a motel lynch, but with the tally what it was, if I couldn't have convinced anyone to join me, I believe I'd have switched to avoid shenanigans. I just didn't think shenanigans had actually happened when I wrote that, since a 5-2 vote looked solid.

Not sure if we're thinking of the same role... I already told JJJ it's definitely not about Blind.

If you would have convinced anyone else to join you on motel, it wouldn't have changed the outcome of motel being lynched. If you would have stepped away from motel, it might have changed the outcome.

Ricochet wrote:

Russtifinko wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Russ, what would MM's past votes have to do with what happened today and who he might be?

Also are you in any way serious about backsliding about your motel vote? I believe I have a good understanding of your vote, so don't give me the heebie-jeebies now, by saying you would have definitely switched it off, especially after a day of intense case-making to support that vote.

And I'm good. Good good. Hear my voice, Russ.

Well if your theory is right, it makes sense for him not to want to broadcast his role. They were made to hide, I figure.

Not trying to give you the heebie jeebies, man. motel was my biggest suspect, but MM was my clear #2. Just for different reasons than JJJ. If I had been able to be around I'd have pushed hard for a motel lynch, but with the tally what it was, if I couldn't have convinced anyone to join me, I believe I'd have switched to avoid shenanigans. I just didn't think shenanigans had actually happened when I wrote that, since a 5-2 vote looked solid.

Not sure if we're thinking of the same role... I already told JJJ it's definitely not about Blind.

If you would have convinced anyone else to join you on motel, it wouldn't have changed the outcome of motel being lynched. If you would have stepped away from motel, it might have changed the outcome.

Yeah I know it's not Blind. Now I'm getting confused about what you're talking about.

You're right on both counts, and I think that's why it looks bad for me. I can't really defend except to say that I genuinely could not be here until I posted, and I thought the poll ended an hour after it did. JJJ seems to have been under the same impression, with the difference that he was available before the new poll end time.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I HATE SHENANIGANS

Bully you.

Ricochet wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Hosts: Do we get sum love for sale tonight?

No. Love for Sale is dead.

Russtifinko wrote:The poll said it ended at 6:56pm, JJJ said he saw it too. I couldn't machete back from work for a 5:56pm deadline, but I fully intended to be here for the 7pm EOD. Hosts, can you offer any insight into why the time on the poll end could have changed? And/or does anyone have a screenshot from earlier in the day?

I'm pretty sure I know exactly what's happening here. There was no time change.

Did you view the poll when you were NOT logged into your account? If so, I think that's what caused your discrepancy. Now that DST is not in effect, it appears the time that the board shows when you're a guest is 1 hour ahead of the actual time, if you're in Eastern time.

I've noticed that when I'm logged out and viewing a poll that it's now 2 hours ahead of me instead of 1, which was how it showed before DST ended. Because I'm in Central time now (yay Texas), I've noticed in the past few months whenever I happened to be logged out that the polls and post times were 1 hour ahead of what was actually my time.

I have no idea why the heck this happens and I can't recall whether this has happened in previous years, oddly enough (damn memory), but it's happening.

TL;DR: Make sure you view poll and post times while you're logged into your account, NOT as a guest.

Yeah, if Rico is bad then I am just gonna resign myself to losing. If anything, he looks more civ than JJJ to me, and that's saying something. He's got 20 pages of consistently solid analysis, and he's picked up his game - 8 pages in the past 3 cycles. Very little fluff either.

As for being the SK, who knows. He could be, but so could any of us. I think there are better baddie and SK candidates out there though.

He also has the most and best TH lyrics.

Linki: Well dammit, that would do it. I caught a minute to read up at lunch, but didn't have time to post anything. I also thought I remembered it saying 7 last night, but I guess I was mistaken.

Sorry motel room, and sorry everyone else. I voted motel room because I thought he was more likely to be the PSK than Diiny and DrWilgy.

Hmm... JJJ, do you think Fuzz was one of the 2 targets for take me to the river yesterday?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Sorry motel room, and sorry everyone else. I voted motel room because I thought he was more likely to be the PSK than Diiny and DrWilgy.

MM, which one of the two remaining do you most suspect in that regard now?

As a reminder, my participation this weekend will be limited. It sucks to be missing such an important time, and I apologize to you all again, but proposing > mafia. I'll vote Sunday, and expect me to have read at least the main points of the day, but don't expect a lot of posts.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Hosts: Do we get sum love for sale tonight?

No. Love for Sale is dead.

Well, crap. Poor Fuzz. My house of cards is shaking now.

Final baddies among Diiny, Wilgy and Fuzz.

The thought of Russ being SK again, after Watchmen, is quite unnerving.

EBWOP, due to waking up derp.

Ricochet wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Ricochet wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Hosts: Do we get sum love for sale tonight?

No. Love for Sale is dead.

Well, crap. Poor Fuzz. My house of cards is shaking now.

Final baddies among Diiny, Wilgy and RUSS.

The thought of Russ being SK again, after Watchmen, is quite unnerving.

Com'on, MM and JJJ, let's talk it through, we have three players to worry about! JJJ you better not have gone into depressed mode, all of a sudden.

Also, it's Eloh's BD, everyone tell her a joke.

Diiny, can you kill the mafia tonight? Please?

If only :'(

Off to a fireworks show tonight so in case I don't get another chance I'll share my fear that some of you may have picked up on: ACEO lovers-esque win condition where J is town and Wilgy isn't.

Feel free to laugh in my face but that's my tinfoil theory

Can someone explain to me why MM isn't mafia anymore? I'm not sure what the role shenanigans highlight about him that has flipped everyone's perspectives

Lemme try to put it this way: if tomorrow we're down to 5, should the four of us vote MM and MM would vote anyone of us, that person would get lynched. It's in the roles, one just has to process the whole thing.

Roles were distributed before the Dusk 0 ACEO voting. Yes, I also think JJJ is town and Wilgy is mafia, but what extra win con could they have, if that's what you mean?

Some variant of Lovers, a cross-allignment win condition that lets a specific townie and scum win if they're the only ones left alive. Sometimes one dies if the other does, too. Their behaviour towards one another is really suggestive of this. The ACEO briefing would have bestowed this new win con on them whilst preserving their roles.

That didn't answer why nobody thinks MM is scum BTW (it might when I have a decent look at the roles; on my phone )

Look at my interactions with J for the last few pages for more on that theory BTW.

Wow, I never heard of such a Lovers variant before. I have my doubts, however, that being elected ACEO would then become a burdening status, to the point of losing of a game, independent of the actual outcome of the game (for instance, JJJ losing the game as town by losing scum Wilgy as his lover). It doesn't explain JJJ suddenly case making Wilgy and feeding him to the town, if he would know it would be detrimental to his win con. It would, indeed, explain his reluctance to ever pull the switch on Wilgy, yes, but that's about all I can project right now.

Diiny wrote: That didn't answer why nobody thinks MM is scum BTW (it might when I have a decent look at the roles; on my phone )

Not sure JJJ and/or Russ have figured it out, yet, but in theory, should one figure it out, then he would have his answers re: MM's alignment.

The 'if one dies so does the other' variant may not be in place but is used pretty commonly nonetheless. Do you disagree that their treatment of each other fits in really well with this?

Why can't you say what you think happened/what mms role is? Does your decision rely on undumpable info?

Diiny wrote:The 'if one dies so does the other' variant may not be in place but is used pretty commonly nonetheless. Do you disagree that their treatment of each other fits in really well with this?

I wouldn't disagree, but it doesn't influence what I need to focus on. Between the two of them, tomorrow I'd lynch Wilgy, JJJ I'm reading town. I'm sorry if that'll cost JJJ the game - although, again, it seems really cruel to tangle two players of different alignment this way, but idk.

Diiny wrote:Why can't you say what you think happened/what mms role is? Does your decision rely on undumpable info?

I don't know, let me talk to the judges first. If by "decision" you mean my reason for reading MM town or something alike, then it relies on lynch events, role correlation and mathematics. It's all in game.

Then again, why would I feed information to the person I suspect will get to kill tonight?

I've said enough as it is, already, not to mention putting me and my townreads in harm's way (although I'm the most vulnerable, compared to them, lol) - but I did it with the utmost convinction that you, Wilgy and Russ are the players it all boils down to.

The following is an interpretation, not a purely statistical listing. Please take it into consideration as such. I am putting Diiny, Wilgy and Russ in red as potential baddies (mafia + SK).

Daily main wagons, off-orbit votes of remaining alive players and off-orbit votes remaining players that I suspect as baddies received

Day 1

birdwithteeth11 7 - DrWilgy (12), bcornett24 (14), Matt F (23), HamburgerBoy (25), Sorsha (27), Diiny (28), sig (31)

Russtifinko 4 - Metalmarsh89 (18), AceofSpaces (30), espers (34), Epignosis (38) 11%

sig 4 -- motel room (11), JaggedJimmyJay (16), Long Con (21), birdwithteeth11 (26) 11%

Diiny 3 - thellama73 (6), Devin the Omniscient (19), Elohcin (24) 8%

Matt F 2 -- Roxy (35), Russtifinko (36) 5%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

No teamie followed Long Con on the sig wagon.

If Wilgy is LC's teammate, then he did a poor job with his BWT vote - the reasoning was banana (suspecting BWT's gameplay claims - to which LC distanced from) and he got stuck on a mislynch.

If Russ is LC's teammate, then he did a good evasive vote. To be fair, I'm not entirely positive on Matt's alignment being town, so it could be an even better vote on a teamie, to reflect well should Matt flip bad at any point.

I'm inclined to give the baddie point to Russ over Wilgy, although I am very intrigued by the Wilgy - LC created on the subject of lynching BWT.

Day 2

bcornett24 6 -- FZ. (19), Sorsha (21), Epignosis (26), bea (27), Golden (36), Long Con (38) 16%

Diiny 2 -- Devin the Omniscient (6), thellama73 (24) 5%

DrWilgy 1 -- Ricochet

Long Con 8 - Choutas (12), sig (16), seaside (17), DrWilgy (18), motel room (31), bcornett24 (32), , JaggedJimmyJay (34), Russtifinko (35) 21%

thellama73 3 -- MacDougall (13), Diiny (28), espers (30) 8%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Dilemma #1 : Both Wilgy and Russ, whom I suspect as possibly final baddie, are on LC. Which means one of them bussed the guy.

Recapping ad lib, Wilgy made a vote first (with apologetic "didn't catch up properly" seasoning), then developed a real case. Russ made a late vote that, at that time, buried LC, until Golden voted b24 and gave LC a lifeline.

Every town should pitch here on who they find looking the worst. Who is the busser?

Day 3

Golden 7 -- bcornett24 (10), MacDougall (11), Devin the Omniscient (14), DrWilgy (28), sig (30), Sorsha (31), Ricochet (33) 21%

Ricochet 6 -- JaggedJimmyJay (21), Rbzmncaeaei (22), Diiny (24), Golden (26), seaside (27), espers (34) 18%

Russtifinko 4 -- FZ. (16), Epignosis (18), Bullzeye (19), thellama73 (20) 12%

Sorsha 4 -- Matt F (4), Strawhenge (12), , Choutas (13), Russtifinko (29) 12%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

If Wilgy is bad, he followed in Mac's footsteps.

If Russ is bad, Bullzeye planted a vote on a teamie there, and Russ himself went on a civ wagon, possibly alone. Note to self or to others (if I don't make it): investigate Bull - Russ relationship, to find out if it looks genuine suspicion or distancing; investigate both Wilgy's and Russ's's's's cases on their civ votes, which looks shoddiest.

Day 4

Devin the Omniscient 9 -- bcornett24 (15), Sorsha (16), JaggedJimmyJay (22),, Bullzeye (23), Black Rock (25), Ricochet (26), Golden (27), DrWilgy (31), Epignosis (33) 27%

Golden 1 -- Diiny (32) 3%

Sorsha 10 -- Choutas (6), seaside (8), Devin the Omniscient (9), Strawhenge (11), motel room (17), Matt F (20), Elohcin (24), MacDougall (28), espers (29), , Russtifinko (30) 30%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Holy shit, if Wilgy is bad, he voted with two other teammates! At the time Wilgy voted, Sorsha was fairly out of reach as top wagon, so this could color Wilgy bad.

If Russ is bad, he's also joined by a teammate (MacBaddie). Was this not the Day when MacBaddie advocated his Sorsha policy lynching? Did Russ have any reaction to it?

Day 5

bcornett24 1 -- DrWilgy (7) 3%

Devin the Omniscient 6 -- bcornett24 (10), Choutas (15), sig (26), Bullzeye (27), Devin the Omniscient (28), Black Rock (29)

Diiny 2 -- seaside (11),, MacDougall (24) 6%

espers 8 -- Russtifinko (18), motel room (20), JaggedJimmyJay (22), RadicalFuzz (23), Metalmarsh89 (30), Diiny (31), Ricochet (32), Matt F (34) 24%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Devin was very likely drugged and we see two confirmed baddies on that lynch as well. With the knowledge of Devin being drugged and possibly ending up lynched, I see both Wilgy and Russ suspect of doing evasive maneuvers. Russ' vote is also incredibly early!

Day 6

Diiny 6 -- sig (22), seaside (23), MacDougall (24), motel room (26), Choutas (27), JaggedJimmyJay (28)

MacDougall 7 -- DrWilgy (4), Ricochet (10), Metalmarsh89 (11), Epignosis (15), Matt F (18), Elohcin (21), Russtifinko (25) 24%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

ayyyy wtf no baddies on Diiny counterwagon except MacBaddie? :tears: Such deja vu from LC being only baddie on b24 counterwagon.

Dilemma #2: yet again, Wilgy and Russ on a baddie flip wagon. How are we supposed to distinguish between them, christ?

Recapping adlib, both of them developed cases on MacBaddie. This time, Russ' case took longer to develop, compared to Wilgy (who had suss on Mac since D4, I think; but is it genuine suss, or the kind you make in preparation).

Day 7

bcornett24 1 -- DrWilgy (22) 4%

seaside 8 -- Epignosis (20), motel room (21), Metalmarsh89 (23), JaggedJimmyJay (24), bcornett24 (25), Russtifinko (26), Diiny (27), Elohcin (28) 29%

Bullzeye went on a Floyd wagon

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Again Wilgy goes out of orbit.

Russ switched from a Motel vote to seaside, so no interaction with the Floyd - JJJ wagons, when they were ripe. Wilgy voted once, directly b24, and it happened when the seaside slope started.

Day 8

Metalmarsh89 4 -- Strawhenge (4), TheFloyd73 (6), Ricochet (22), DrWilgy (23) 17%

motel room 2 -- Russtifinko (5), Matt F (18) 8%

Russtifinko 3 -- motel room (7), Bullzeye (19), Metalmarsh89 (21) 13%

TheFloyd73 5 -- Choutas (10), Diiny (11), , Epignosis (16), Elohcin (17), JaggedJimmyJay (24) 21%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Hmm. I'm reading Diiny as SK, which means NO teammates on Floyd lynch.
Wilgy again looks bad for a very late vote on Floyd's counterwagon (basically JJJ came afterwards and made the decisive vote). Russ can look bad for planting an early out of orbit vote. Gah

Note to self or others: reinvestigate Bullzeye - Russ interaction, to assert how Bullzeye's vote for Russ looks. Distancing or genuine scum voting town?

Day 9

motel room 2 -- sig (16), Russtifinko (19) 8%

Russtifinko 1 -- Bullzeye (18) 4%

RadicalFuzz 4 -- Metalmarsh89 (8), JaggedJimmyJay (10), Elohcin (11), Diiny (23) 17%

sig 5 -- Choutas (5), motel room (12), RadicalFuzz (21), DrWilgy (22), Ricochet (24) 21%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Russ' drumming on motel intensifies. Bullzeye votes Russ yet again! Wilgy looks awful for sinking sig, if he's bad.

Day 10

Choutas 4 -- DrWilgy (2), Strawhenge (14), RadicalFuzz (19), Metalmarsh89 (21) 18%

motel room 2 -- Ricochet (18), Russtifinko (22) 9%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Bullzeye received town votes. Choutas has Wilgy on it. Russ drumming on motel continues. Diiny went out of orbit with Fuzz vote.

Day 11

Bullzeye 5 -- motel room (13), JaggedJimmyJay (17), RadicalFuzz (18), DrWilgy (19), Russtifinko (22) 22%

Diiny on Wilgy

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Dilemma #3: JESUS CHRIST, THIS IS THE THIRD TIME WILGY AND RUSS ARE BOTH ON A BADDIE FLIP. HOW TO TELL THEM APART. HOW?!

Day 12

Metalmarsh89 5 -- JaggedJimmyJay (14), DrWilgy (16), motel room (17), Diiny (18),, Ricochet (19) 26%

motel room 2 -- Russtifinko (6), Metalmarsh89 (15) 11%

=========================== What I'm getting out of this ===========================

Russ back on motel drumming.

Wilgy had background suss on MM to put his vote there, too.

Ricochet wrote:Also, you really suck at counting (more than I do), considering you're about to reach 9K, not 8.

That was the 8,000th post in this game thread. :P

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Wait, which Night are we talking here? Because on N7, a single player (the same one) survived a kill coming from two directions. I'm confused by this, in context of the discussion being about Night 7 and reading into Strawhenge's possible River moves.

I don't think Strawhenge's role, whatever it was, or anything else may have done behind the scenes had anything to do with the failed kills of Night 7. I do think that Strawhenge strongly believed he caused one of the failed attempts though, and that MM was the player implicated in his mind.

I rather regret mentioning Strawhenge at all when I mounted my cases, because now way too many people are wasting time talking about him when my cases were meant to be new content against MM.

That's exactly what I told you was going to happen Mr-Hashtag-Man.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Ricochet wrote:Also, you really suck at counting (more than I do), considering you're about to reach 9K, not 8.

That was the 8,000th post in this game thread. :P

oh

Ricochet wrote:Marsh, why did you vote motel, if you said, as far as I understand, that you'd vote Wilgy to not get lynched. Wilgy was leading by 2, motel had the same as you. How can you vote in interest of not reaching top wagon the weaker wagon (motel) rather than the stronger one (Wilgy), at that time? Can it be because you and WIlgy are connected?

I made a big mistake. I thought about voting for Wilgy, but I saw Russti's vote on motel room, and so I voted for him because again, I thought he had a chance at being the PSK.

I should have played it safe. Unfortunately, I was at a casino for the last 6 hours of the day phase, and didn't have the ability to respond to everything or even properly think about what I was doing. I made a ballsy move with my vote, and it backfired.

Yeah, answering back to some of the questions posed on that EoD is meaningless now, at least for me. In hindsight, I also wished a baddie would have gotten hurt by these shenanigans.

The fact that WIlgy and Russ are hardly separable on three out of four baddie lynches is killing me right now. It really makes me wish the SK would show, at least once in this entire game, some anti-mafia moves (that we can know of or decipher, at least), even if eliminating the mafia could hurt his endgame chances. Alas, I suspect he'll off a civ, probably me.

Ricochet wrote:Yeah, answering back to some of the questions posed on that EoD is meaningless now, at least for me. In hindsight, I also wished a baddie would have gotten hurt by these shenanigans.

The fact that WIlgy and Russ are hardly separable on three out of four baddie lynches is killing me right now. It really makes me wish the SK would show, at least once in this entire game, some anti-mafia moves (that we can know of or decipher, at least), even if eliminating the mafia could hurt his endgame chances. Alas, I suspect he'll off a civ, probably me.

Yeah I know.

Diiny looks awful during the EoD. Regardless of Jay's tunneling, he looks mighty civ to me. I know he didn't like my responses to him yesterday, but I was still trying to figure out how he was aligned.

I feel my probability of death tonight is pretty high though.

Ricochet wrote:Yeah, answering back to some of the questions posed on that EoD is meaningless now, at least for me. In hindsight, I also wished a baddie would have gotten hurt by these shenanigans.

The fact that WIlgy and Russ are hardly separable on three out of four baddie lynches is killing me right now. It really makes me wish the SK would show, at least once in this entire game, some anti-mafia moves (that we can know of or decipher, at least), even if eliminating the mafia could hurt his endgame chances. Alas, I suspect he'll off a civ, probably me.

Russ has been playing this game with a pretty consistent effort, and actually has been going stronger over these last few days. Do you think that is a sign of a baddie Russ?

This may sound like a weird observation on my part, but I had read Russ as bad all game up until Day 10 (I think), and his increase in activity happened right around the same time.

I like the analysis Rico, I have one question though. What about "sinking Sig" looks terrible if I'm a baddie? Does it not look terrible because I'm a civ?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
I feel my probability of death tonight is pretty high though.

Hmm, really? Did you endure a lot during the previous Nights, so to say?

Metalmarsh89 wrote: Russ has been playing this game with a pretty consistent effort, and actually has been going stronger over these last few days. Do you think that is a sign of a baddie Russ?

This may sound like a weird observation on my part, but I had read Russ as bad all game up until Day 10 (I think), and his increase in activity happened right around the same time.

Russ won Watchmen as SK. I let him live on that game's final Day, because it suited my own win con, otherwise I wasn't really close to profiling him as bad. I think Russ would put a "consistent effort" as both town and bad. If he's SK again, I just want to jump off a bridge. I can remember MP taking delight in how Watchmen unfolded and put Russ in the same spot again - then again, if the roles are all really randomized, then this argument doesn't hold anything.

If Russ is bad, he made strong bussing gestures to LC, Mac and Bullzeye, complete with case making that would look good on paper. His only shoddy move, nonetheless, could be on Bullzeye, considering he's otherwise drummed on motel for FIVE out of the last SIX Days.

I wish MP's answer to Love for Sale still kicking would have been yes, because I really thought I had something on Russ, from this perspective. But without that, everything is up in the air, regarding him.

Him being AWOL for natural reasons, during D13's phase, is going to improve nothing for us. Freaking nothing.

Metalmarsh89 wrote: Yeah I know.

Diiny looks awful during the EoD. Regardless of Jay's tunneling, he looks mighty civ to me. I know he didn't like my responses to him yesterday, but I was still trying to figure out how he was aligned.

I feel my probability of death tonight is pretty high though.

The counterwagon on Diiny Day 6, despite turning out MacBaddie was the only baddie who voted on the counterwagon, still makes me doubt Diiny is Mafia. By such exclusion and by counting Wilgy or Russ as mafia, I think Diiny is the SK. Of course, Russ could also be the SK, but I think the "Diiny is not mafia" component leans more on Diiny being SK than civ.

Also notable is that he missed N5 and D6 activity and on N5 the SK didn't kill. This makes him fit even more as the SK.

Tomorrow, if I live, I'd probably vote to lynch the SK. The SK would get to kill twice on N13, which is detrimental to us.

DrWilgy wrote:I like the analysis Rico, I have one question though. What about "sinking Sig" looks terrible if I'm a baddie? Does it not look terrible because I'm a civ?

You had absolutely nothing on sig that I can recall. You voted him to backslide from a Fuzz lynch, due to a new perspective on him or something alike. For all I know, you could be a baddie waffling between two wagons you would have known are likely civs (non-mafia, anyway). You backsliding on an highly unreasoned vote makes it even worse.

Oh yeah, I didn't specify. I agree that Diiny is the SK. I think you and I aren't the only ones either. I just really hope he can be lynched easily. It's amazing how often independent LMS roles last in games on this site.