The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?

Hally mac dizzy wilgy tbd tbd

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:27 pm We probably only get two mischops in this game. I suggest we eliminate the top suspect every time without regard for who it is. The game is unlikely to offer a wealth of time and chop resources to sort itself out. This might be speaking the obvious, but I don't think it's obvious in practice.

wait actually?

The other option for scum team is NAA and Wilgy.

I think Mac and Radish is most likely the team though.

I've given my townreads that you can work off. Everyone else is like, some variant of shrug POE slot that you can slot into a solve if it turns out my guesses aren't correct.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:32 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:27 pm We probably only get two mischops in this game. I suggest we eliminate the top suspect every time without regard for who it is. The game is unlikely to offer a wealth of time and chop resources to sort itself out. This might be speaking the obvious, but I don't think it's obvious in practice.

wait actually?

would be 3 normally, but the revenge killer/mafia vig/beloved princess make it so

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:32 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:27 pm We probably only get two mischops in this game. I suggest we eliminate the top suspect every time without regard for who it is. The game is unlikely to offer a wealth of time and chop resources to sort itself out. This might be speaking the obvious, but I don't think it's obvious in practice.

wait actually?

Yeah

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?

Hally mac dizzy wilgy tbd tbd

Why exactly was I a town read and then not a town read

I don't know what to make of Dizzy's suspicion of me so I'm going to ignore it.

Dizzy is POE'd for other reasons (mainly doing nothing townie), but he is not a prime suspect.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:32 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:27 pm We probably only get two mischops in this game. I suggest we eliminate the top suspect every time without regard for who it is. The game is unlikely to offer a wealth of time and chop resources to sort itself out. This might be speaking the obvious, but I don't think it's obvious in practice.

wait actually?

Yeah

Ew. Worse than pandas

9 v 2

7 v 2

5 v 2

3 v 2

isn’t it four? or three depending on wolf kp i guess

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm 9 v 2

7 v 2

5 v 2

3 v 2

isn’t it four? or three depending on wolf kp i guess

can't mischop at 3v2

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm 9 v 2

7 v 2

5 v 2

3 v 2

isn’t it four? or three depending on wolf kp i guess

wait i’m dumb

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm I don't know what to make of Dizzy's suspicion of me so I'm going to ignore it.

Dizzy is POE'd for other reasons (mainly doing nothing townie), but he is not a prime suspect.

I've done only towny things you don't even know what a citizen pays in taxes

damn, i was actually thinking we had more room for error because 9 v 2

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm 9 v 2

7 v 2

5 v 2

3 v 2

isn’t it four? or three depending on wolf kp i guess

2-3 misexes before F5. If wolf has KP, that's 2 misexes.

9v2 MISEXE + WOLF KP = 6v2 MISEXE = 4v2 NO EXE = 3v2 = NO MORE MISEXES

So JJJ is right to say there are probably only 2 misexes.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:34 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm I don't know what to make of Dizzy's suspicion of me so I'm going to ignore it.

Dizzy is POE'd for other reasons (mainly doing nothing townie), but he is not a prime suspect.

I've done only towny things you don't even know what a citizen pays in taxes

Perhaps you have done townie things in the section I didn't read. Feel free to quote them to spark discussion in advance.

Better use the first on Alison then

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:30 pm Mac responded to my concern post. It was a scummy response. Mac is probably scum.

I am never voting Mac today.

wat

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:36 pmPerhaps you have done townie things in the section I didn't read. Feel free to quote them to spark discussion in advance.

Well, I called your post bs. That's pretty towny, especially considering you're mafia.

I'm happy to accept Dizzy as a town read purely by consensus. He's close enough. Perhaps I swap him with Mac in the uncertain pile. I end up with something like:

c4, Dizzy, Hally, Marmot
-
MR, Mac
-
Alison, Nanook, NAA, Wilgy

Wilgy's in a strange spot right now. I think he is the most actively suspicious player in the thread, save perhaps Alison. Both Dizzy and Nanook have provided strong vouches though so I will think about it. The Nanook-Wilgy dynamic is especially important.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?

Hally
Marmot
Probably you
Imma roll with Dizzy
Uhhhhhhhhhhhh fuck it Axe

I'm out of ideas

Don't you hate it when everyone has one more townread than you because that one townread is you

Here is my advice on what to do. First, eliminate Radish so that I won't die today.

If Radish flips scum, then eliminate Mac. If Mac is town, then eliminate Dizzy and Wilgy, in that order.

If Radish flips town, then eliminate me. I will flip town, whereupon which you should eliminate NAA and Wilgy.

I have about a 60% confidence that this solve wins the game. This may not seem like a lot of confidence, but it's actually quite a lot if you think about what I am proposing.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:36 pmPerhaps you have done townie things in the section I didn't read. Feel free to quote them to spark discussion in advance.

Well, I called your post bs. That's pretty towny, especially considering you're mafia.

I'm not mafia, so it's not townie at all. Also, it's not true.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:30 pm Mac responded to my concern post. It was a scummy response. Mac is probably scum.

I am never voting Mac today.

wat

If we vote out Mac today and he flips town the game is lost so I don't see a reason to risk it when I can gun for his partner.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm I'm happy to accept Dizzy as a town read purely by consensus. He's close enough. Perhaps I swap him with Mac in the uncertain pile. I end up with something like:

c4, Dizzy, Hally, Marmot
-
MR, Mac
-
Alison, Nanook, NAA, Wilgy

Wilgy's in a strange spot right now. I think he is the most actively suspicious player in the thread, save perhaps Alison. Both Dizzy and Nanook have provided strong vouches though so I will think about it. The Nanook-Wilgy dynamic is especially important.

I don't think Dizzy should be a consensus town read. This man has done nothing.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:28 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?

c4
marmot
dizzy
you

honestly not sure who else, but maybe radishy because he’s my mason

I'll sheep your Jimmay read if you sheep my Wilgy and Radish reads. You won't regret it. BOX THEM IN

i’m actually not as sure on jay as i’d like so maybe don’t sheep that lol

just put him there because he seems fine for the most part and he agrees with me on alison

but sure, i’ll sheep you on radish and wilgy for today because why not

I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:32 pm The other option for scum team is NAA and Wilgy.

I think Mac and Radish is most likely the team though.

I've given my townreads that you can work off. Everyone else is like, some variant of shrug POE slot that you can slot into a solve if it turns out my guesses aren't correct.

what’s your read on dizzy?

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm I don't know what to make of Dizzy's suspicion of me so I'm going to ignore it.

Dizzy is POE'd for other reasons (mainly doing nothing townie), but he is not a prime suspect.

nvm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

Your solving is trying to take away a consensus town read (it's not really) from a town so no

Also, no.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:36 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:34 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:33 pm I don't know what to make of Dizzy's suspicion of me so I'm going to ignore it.

Dizzy is POE'd for other reasons (mainly doing nothing townie), but he is not a prime suspect.

I've done only towny things you don't even know what a citizen pays in taxes

Perhaps you have done townie things in the section I didn't read. Feel free to quote them to spark discussion in advance.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:40 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:37 pm I'm happy to accept Dizzy as a town read purely by consensus. He's close enough. Perhaps I swap him with Mac in the uncertain pile. I end up with something like:

c4, Dizzy, Hally, Marmot
-
MR, Mac
-
Alison, Nanook, NAA, Wilgy

Wilgy's in a strange spot right now. I think he is the most actively suspicious player in the thread, save perhaps Alison. Both Dizzy and Nanook have provided strong vouches though so I will think about it. The Nanook-Wilgy dynamic is especially important.

I don't think Dizzy should be a consensus town read. This man has done nothing.

Oh my god.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:42 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

Your solving is trying to take away a consensus town read (it's not really) from a town so no

Also, no.

That's because you don't deserve the consensus town read. Maybe you are town. You are not a prime suspect. But I saw you do practically nothing before I went to bed and then I woke up and you were hard pushing me so I don't think you deserve the consensus town read at all.

Also, my solving is presenting a flowchart that has a 60% chance of winning the game on the spot. That's pretty good for like, half of Day 1.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:40 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:31 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:28 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:22 pm Name 6 townies not including yourself. Get it right and you win the game. Anyone fancy a try?

c4
marmot
dizzy
you

honestly not sure who else, but maybe radishy because he’s my mason

I'll sheep your Jimmay read if you sheep my Wilgy and Radish reads. You won't regret it. BOX THEM IN

i’m actually not as sure on jay as i’d like so maybe don’t sheep that lol

just put him there because he seems fine for the most part and he agrees with me on alison

but sure, i’ll sheep you on radish and wilgy for today because why not

I like his--gasp--progression on Mac a good amount

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

you really haven’t done anything though? all you’ve done is throw out people as suspects without explaining anything really and then say to sheep you and kill you if you’re wrong

that’s not solving

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:43 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:42 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

Your solving is trying to take away a consensus town read (it's not really) from a town so no

Also, no.

That's because you don't deserve the consensus town read. Maybe you are town. You are not a prime suspect. But I saw you do practically nothing before I went to bed and then I woke up and you were hard pushing me so I don't think you deserve the consensus town read at all.

Also, my solving is presenting a flowchart that has a 60% chance of winning the game on the spot. That's pretty good for like, half of Day 1.

I love you

alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:45 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

you really haven’t done anything though? all you’ve done is throw out people as suspects without explaining anything really and then say to sheep you and kill you if you’re wrong

that’s not solving

This is not what I said. I gave you a solve, I didn't demand that you sheep it. I said that you should kill me if Radish flips green because it's the right move gamestate wise, not because of some "kill me if I'm wrong" ultimatum.

I am happy to explain any of my suspects if you wish me to go into detail on them. I didn't think you needed me to explain to you why I have, say, Wilgy in the POE, and I have articulated my suspicion on Mac and mentioned that I found his response to be scummy. If you have any questions about specific aspects of my solve, I am here to answer them.

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:46 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:43 pm

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:42 pm

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:41 pm I have done more solving in the few posts after I came back and didn't read than multiple slots have done all game. Voting me is the wrong move.

Your solving is trying to take away a consensus town read (it's not really) from a town so no

Also, no.

That's because you don't deserve the consensus town read. Maybe you are town. You are not a prime suspect. But I saw you do practically nothing before I went to bed and then I woke up and you were hard pushing me so I don't think you deserve the consensus town read at all.

Also, my solving is presenting a flowchart that has a 60% chance of winning the game on the spot. That's pretty good for like, half of Day 1.

I love you

Me too.

I've a sense from Alison that the motivation here is to push back her own chop, at worst Day 2 (e.g. chop me next if X flips town), or at best never (because flowcharts are nearly never followed rigidly through a game). Moreover, "if X flips town, chop me next" puts us in a zero-margin-for-error final phase if Alison is town. As we've said: two mischops available.

Hard to believe.

How about we skip to killing Alison first then me second.

I am unconvinced that Alison is this convinced about me.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:48 pm How about we skip to killing Alison first then me second.

anything for you bb

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:48 pm I've a sense from Alison that the motivation here is to push back her own chop, at worst Day 2 (e.g. chop me next if X flips town), or at best never (because flowcharts are nearly never followed rigidly through a game). Moreover, "if X flips town, chop me next" puts us in a zero-margin-for-error final phase if Alison is town. As we've said: two mischops available.

Hard to believe.

I would like not to be chopped today yes.

I would rather have a zero margin for error final phase than a negative margin for error final phase. That is why I made the decision I did.

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:49 pm I am unconvinced that Alison is this convinced about me.

same

it just reads like she picked a random lhf villager to try to ram through and inflated her confidence in it to hide that there’s no substance to her push

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:51 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:49 pm I am unconvinced that Alison is this convinced about me.

same

it just reads like she picked a random lhf villager to try to ram through and inflated her confidence in it to hide that there’s no substance to her push

You guys are talking like I am deathtunnelling Radish.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:50 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

You forgot the part about the flat-sounding egotistical thingy.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:50 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:47 pm alison, convince me that radishes is a dastardly villain please

it can’t just be that post dizzy quoted, right?

His entrance was bad. c4 made a case against him if you care about that. I don't, but maybe it sways you. Then he came back into the thread and sort of acknowledged the suspicion on him but skated by. (He was top wagon when he returned to the thread. But he did not do anything townie. Now he is not top wagon. This makes me wonder why.) His wagon position relative to mine makes me suspect him more.

Way to slip C4's thing in there without personally relying on it for your own case.

Alison wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:51 pm

Master Radishes wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:49 pm I am unconvinced that Alison is this convinced about me.

same

it just reads like she picked a random lhf villager to try to ram through and inflated her confidence in it to hide that there’s no substance to her push

You guys are talking like I am deathtunnelling Radish.

No. You are kind of talking like you are, while at the same time not doing it.

I am about 70% confident that Radish is mafia and you guys are acting like I'm 95% confident. It's weird.

Where in my posts have I projected confidence? Has my solve even focused untowardly on Radish at all, except as one step in a long sequence?

Please